Big Ten Report - Week 5
September 24, 2014
Game of the Week
Nebraska (-20) vs. Illinois - 9:00 p.m. ET
Nebraska is one of two remaining undefeated Big Ten schools (Penn State is the other) after it made a strong statement win over Miami (FL) last weekend. Credit Nebraska's offense for answering the call every time Miami cut into the lead in the 2nd half. RB Ameer Abdullah led the Huskers with 229 rush yards and three total TD against the Hurricanes while QB Armstrong was an efficient 9-of-13 for 113 yards and 2 TD. Defensively they allowed Miami QB Kaaya to have a big day (28-of-42 for 359 yards and 3 TD) but forced three turnovers and limited the effectiveness of RB Duke Johnson (93 rush yards). If Nebraska wants to keep ascending in the B1G, the defense will have to continue to improve, starting with a home date against a potent Illinois pass-offense this Saturday.
The Illini survived disaster last week against FCS Texas State. The Bobcats held a 21-6 lead in the 1st half before Illinois finally woke up. Illinois finally got a breakout performance from RB Josh Ferguson, who rushed for 190 yards and 2 TD after being held to 126 yards and 1 TD in his first three games combined. It became apparent in a blowout loss to Washington that QB Lunt wasn't going to be able to continuously lead this team to victory, so getting some help from the RB position is a much-needed development. The defense still needs a lot of work. A week after surrendering 464 yards and 44 points to Washington, the Illini looked even worse, allowing Texas State to gain 475 yards and 35 points. Bobcats' QB Jones completed 29-of-46 passes for 336 yards and 4 TD. That defense will need to clean things up fast, or Abdullah and this Husker offense will have a field day. These two have met just once as conference foes and that was last year in Lincoln. Nebraska won the game, 39-19, behind Abdullah's 225 rush yards and 2 TD and Armstrong's 135 pass yards and 2 TD.
Nebraska is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three home conference games and the Huskers are 1-3 ATS as a home favorite of 10 points or more in Big Ten conference games. Illinois is 1-4 ATS in its last five conference games as a double-digit underdog.
Best of the Rest
Penn State (-10.5) vs. Northwestern - 12:00 p.m. ET
A week after notching their first conference win over Rutgers, the Nittany Lions easily dispatched the Minutemen of UMass with a 48-7 victory. Although the opposition wasn't the greatest, it was a welcome sign for PSU that it finally got its rushing attack going, notching 228 rush yards on 5.1 YPC (previous game-high was 106 yards). For the first time this season the Nittany Lions weren't dependent on QB Hackenberg leading them to victory - though he's proven that's not the worst plan of attack. UMass' coaching staff praised PSU's defense, specifically the run defense. PSU allowed just 3 rush yards on 28 carries and the Nittany Lions now have the No. 1 rush defense in the nation, surrendering just 45 rush YPG. With an elite QB and a stout defense; if PSU's run game & offensive line continue to improve, the sky is the limit for the Nittany Lions this season.
This week Northwestern visits Happy Valley for the first meeting between these two since 2012. The Wildcats actually won Saturday, but they didn't look particularly good doing so. FCS Western Illinois outgained Northwestern 376-283 and had +7 first downs. The rushing attack was stalled for most of the game (finished with 166 yards on 4 YPC) and QB Siemian had difficulty passing against the FCS opponent. Siemian finished 15-of-25 for just 117 yards. If it weren't for Northwestern's defense forcing four turnovers, this game could've been a complete disaster for the Wildcats. Offensively the Wildcats rank 106th in rush YPG & total YPG and 104th in PPG. Penn State is 5-0 SU & ATS in the last five against Northwestern, winning by an average of 16.4 PPG (all five wins have been by 10 points or more). PSU 11-4 ATS in the last 15 home games and 6-1 ATS in the last seven as a home favorite of 10 points or more.
Indiana (-4.5) vs. Maryland - 1:30 p.m. ET
Indiana notched the biggest non-conference victory by a Big Ten team this season in last week's road win at SEC's Missouri. Indiana scored the go-ahead touchdown with just 22 seconds remaining. Despite not being able to sustain many long drives (1-for-14 on 3rd down), the Hoosiers still racked up 493 yards against a good defense. RB Coleman rushed for 132 yards and a score while QB Sudfeld passed for 252 yards with 1 TD and 0 INT (Indiana didn't commit a turnover). Credit the defense, while it wasn't great (surrendered 503 points and 28 first downs), it was able to lock down in key spots (Tigers were just 5-for-16 on 3rd down) and hold Missouri to just 27 points. The Hoosiers gave up a few big plays, but were able to limit Mizzou QB Mauk to just 29-of-48 passing. It was a much-needed win for the Hoosiers after losing to Bowling Green the week before. Now they'll have to avoid a letdown performance against a Maryland squad playing in its first ever B1G conference game.
After last week's road win at Syracuse, the Terps are now 2-0 on the road and prepping for their 3rd road game of the season this week in Bloomington. While Maryland won the game at Syracuse by 14 points, there are still things to be concerned about, most notably on defense. The Terps surrendered 589 yards and 26 first downs, including 370 rush yards on 7.3 YPC. Had Syracuse not finished -2 in turnovers, this outcome could've been a lot different. Maryland's rushing attack notched just 89 yards on 32 carries (2.8 YPC), but QB Brown had a solid day (16-of-26 for 280 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT). The Terps will have to get better at sustaining drives with their rushing attack, or else this Maryland "D" that ranks 102nd against the run and 108th in YPG allowed will have a tough time against this high-octane Indiana offense. Indiana is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 home games against B1G foes.
The Hoosiers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite between 0 and 7 points. Maryland is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog, but just 3-6 ATS overall in its last nine as an underdog between 0 and 7 points.
Purdue (+9) vs. Iowa - 12:00 p.m. ET
Purdue achieved its 2nd win of the season last week, doubling last year's win total. Sure, it came against FCS Southern Illinois, but it was a promising development heading into Big Ten play. QB Etling played well, tossing for 198 yards and 2 scores on 15-of-26 passing while also rushing for a score. The Boilers also rushed for a solid 183 yards on 4.2 YPC behind a three-headed attack of RB's. Defensively they still need a lot of work. They allowed 330 yards and 20 first downs, and allowed the Salukis to convert on 10-of-18 3rd downs. This is still a team with a lot of questions; most notably on defense and at quarterback.
Purdue will host its first conference game of the season against Iowa, who is off of a big win of its own. The Hawkeyes fought back from a 10-point 2nd half deficit to take the lead with 6:56 remaining in the 4th behind a stellar performance from backup QB Beathard. The defense held Pitt out of the end zone, preserving the 24-20 victory. Credit the Hawkeyes for coming out on top of a game that was largely dominated by the Panthers. Pitt had +124 yards and +7 first downs, but the Panthers 'D' had no answer for Beathard in the 2nd half. Beathard completed 7-of-8 passes for 98 yards after Rudock left with an unspecified injury. The sophomore opened the week of practice as the starter as Rudock is day-to-day with a leg injury. Iowa continues to struggle running the football (under 4 YPC for the 3rd straight week) and an infuse in the passing game behind Beathard could be just what the doctor ordered for the Hawkeyes to spark their offense. Iowa won last year's matchup by 24 points, and is 3-1 SU & ATS in the last four meetings in West Lafayette.
The Hawkeyes are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite of 7 points or more. Purdue is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a home underdog of 7 points or more, losing by an average of 39 points per game.
Michigan (-11.5) vs. Minnesota - 3:30 p.m. ET
Brady Hoke's seat is getting pretty hot in Ann Arbor as his Wolverines continue to underachieve. They are off of an embarrassing home loss to Utah last Saturday. Michigan turned the ball over four times and tallied just 308 total yards and 10 points. QB Gardner, who was 14-of-26 with 2 INT against Utah, was replaced by Shane Morris, who wasn't much of an improvement (4-of-13 with an INT). Brady Hoke hasn't stated which quarterback will get the call this week, but you can expect a little bit of both, regardless of who starts. The rushing attack wasn't much help either, managing just 118 yards on 3.3 YPC. Defensively there aren't a lot of issues as this may be one of the better units in the Big Ten. They held Utah to just 286 yards, including just 81 yards on 2.2 YPC. But that won't matter if Michigan continues to stink it up on offense. First up on the conference slate is a home date with Minnesota.
Minnesota is off of a 17-point home win over San Jose State. The Gophers rushed 58 times for 380 yards and only completed one pass in the victory. Minny will likely have to complete more than one pass, assuming that Michigan's 8th ranked rush defense limits the Gophers ground game. QB Chris Streveler rushed for 161 yards and a touchdown, but it remains to be seen if he is any threat in the passing game. QB Leidner has practiced this week and hasn't been ruled out for this game, but expect that Streveler gets the start. Minnesota hasn't beaten Michigan since 2005. Michigan is 6-0 SU & ATS in the last six meetings, winning by an average of 28.3 PPG (each win by 14 points or more). This will be the 2nd straight meeting in Ann Arbor. Last year, Michigan had just a 14-7 lead at halftime but outscored the Gophers 28-6 in the 2nd half to achieve the 42-13 victory.
Michigan is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games as a favorite of 10 points or more.
Ohio State (-15.5) vs. Cincinnati - 6:00 p.m. ET
The Buckeyes enjoyed a bye week last week after a drubbing of Kent State two weeks ago. The Buckeyes' offense finally broke out against KSU to the tune of 66 points, 33 first downs, and 628 yards. QB J.T. Barrett tossed for 312 yards and 6 TD, gaining some much-needed confidence as the Buckeyes inch closer to conference play. The defense was outstanding as well, holding Kent State to just 126 yards and 10 first downs while pitching a shutout. We know that it was against a lowly MAC program, but it was a much needed dominant performance after the home loss to VA Tech on September 6th. OSU now plays its third consecutive home game when Cincinnati comes to town on Saturday.
Cincinnati has played just two games so far, but its safe to assume the defense isn't great. They allowed 563 yards and 34 points in a win against Toledo, and 364 yards and 24 points to a terrible Miami (OH) team last week. They now rank 111th against the pass and 109th in total defense. That's not a good omen heading into a matchup with an OSU squad that just put up a 66-spot. Former top-QB recruit Gunner Kiel runs the show for Cincinnati's offense after transferring from Notre Dame. He has racked up 689 yards with 10 TD and 2 INT through two games, albeit against two poor defenses. He'll get his first difficult test in the Horseshoe on Saturday against OSU's pass-defense that is surrendering just 99.3 pass YPG (3rd nationally) with 2 TD allowed and 5 INT. These in-state foes have met twice since 2004 with the last matchup in 2006. OSU finished 2-0 SU & ATS in those two games, winning by an average score of 32-6.5. OSU is 24-14 ATS in its last 38 home games.
The Bucks are just 2-7 ATS in its last nine as a favorite between 10 and 20 points. Cincinnati is 0-4 SU & ATS in its last four home openers and just 5-10-1 ATS in the last 16 games as a double-digit underdog.
Wisconsin (-34) vs. South Florida - 12:00 p.m. ET
The Badgers had no issues at home against Bowling Green last week. They rushed for the fourth-most yards in Big Ten history (644) behind a HUGE day from RB Gordon. After notching just 38 yards on 17 carries against FCS Western Illinois; the star RB ran angry. He rushed for 253 yards and five TD on just 13 carries. It was one of the most dominating rushing performances you'll ever see as Gordon, QB McEvoy, and backup RB Clement all topped 100 yards - 3rd string RB Ogunbowale nearly hit the century mark but finished just short with 94 rush yards. Wisconsin will continue to pound the ball to aid 1st year starting QB McEvoy who continues to improve each week (32-of-44 passing for 395 yards with 4 TD the last two games). Defensively it may just be the competition, but the Badgers defense looks to be one of the top units in the B1G. They rank 15th against the run, 25th against the pass, and 14 in PPG allowed. The defensive unit should have another solid day against this struggling USF offense.
The Bulls had a three-point home win over UConn last week to improve their record to 2-2 on the season. It wasn't a pretty performance as USF tallied just 271 yards in the pouring rain, including 158 rush yards on 3.0 YPC. The Bulls' offense is now 119th in pass yards, 118th in total yards, and 101st in PPG. Their QB play has been below-average at best as three players have combined for 39% completions with 2 TD and 5 INT through four games. USF QB's will have another tough day against this Badgers pass-defense that has surrendered just 49.3% completions with 2 TD and 2 INT this season. The Badgers are 62-7 SU at home over the last 10 years - 30-0 SU against non-conference opponents.
Wisconsin is 8-3 in its last 11 home games as a favorite of 20 points or more. USF is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games and 6-3 ATS in their last 9 road openers (includes covers against Penn State in 2005 and Michigan State in 2013).
Michigan State (-31) vs. Wyoming - 12:00 p.m. ET
The Spartans continue to look like the best team in the Big Ten after an absolutely dominating performance against Eastern Michigan. Take a look at some of these offensive numbers for EMU: 135 total yards, 5 first downs, 20 rush yards on 19 carries, 1-for-13 on 3rd down, and 10-of-29 passing. A lot of the Spartans' starters didn't even get two full quarters of play before they were replaced and MSU still won, 73-14. It was just the type of dominating performance the Spartans needed after losing their last game to Oregon. This week it could be more of the same as Wyoming visits for MSU's homecoming.
Wyoming isn't as bad as Eastern Michigan, but the Cowboys' struggling offense will be hard pressed to put up points against this Spartans defense. Wyoming ranks 102nd in yards per game and 121st in points per game. They haven't scored more than 20 points in a game yet this season. Defensively they held three of their four opponents below 20 points, but Oregon put up 48 points and 556 yards in a 34 point loss on September 13th. Wyoming is in a letdown spot here after beating Florida Atlantic by one point last week on a field goal with 15 seconds remaining.
Michigan State is 4-2 ATS since 2010 as a favorite of 30 points or more and 6-3 ATS in the last nine as a double-digit favorite against non-conference foes. Wyoming is 4-0 in its last four games as an underdog of 30 points or more.
Rutgers (-11.5) vs. Tulane - 12:00 p.m. ET
Rutgers notched a solid road win over Navy last weekend, a much-needed victory after dropping a close one to Penn State on September 13. The Scarlet Knights jumped out to an early lead and were able to control the TOP, something that rarely happens against Navy. They limited Navy to just 171 rush yards - 174 below Navy's season average. Rutgers QB Nova was an efficient 11-of-14 passing for 151 yards while the Knights also rushed for 284 yards on 5.1 YPC. The win came at a price, however, as Rutgers lost star tailback Paul James to a season-ending torn ACL. James was Rutgers’ workhorse, the most consistent part about the Knights’ offense. In James’ first three games this season, he accounted for more than 60 percent of the team’s rushing yards while scoring 7 total TD. It was a promising sign that James' replacement, Justin Goodwin, rushed for 104 yards on 26 carries with 1 TD last week after James left with an injury. Still, losing James will be a big blow for this already struggling offense.
Goodwin and this rush offense will have a chance to get right without James against the Green Wave rush-defense that allows 203 YPG on the ground. Tulane is 1-3 this season with the lone victory coming against FCS Southeastern Louisiana. The Wave are off of a blowout loss to Duke last week. Duke forced five Tulane turnovers - returning 2 INT for TD - and limited the Wave to just 5-for-18 on 3rd down and 13 total points. Tulane QB Lee has been awful. He's completing just 47.4% of his passes with 8 TD and 9 INT. These two have met twice since 2010. Rutgers is 0-2 ATS in both meetings.
Rutgers is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 home games and also just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games as a favorite of 10 points or more. Tulane is 16-9 ATS in its last 23 games, but just 1-3 ATS so far this year.
September 24, 2014
Game of the Week
Nebraska (-20) vs. Illinois - 9:00 p.m. ET
Nebraska is one of two remaining undefeated Big Ten schools (Penn State is the other) after it made a strong statement win over Miami (FL) last weekend. Credit Nebraska's offense for answering the call every time Miami cut into the lead in the 2nd half. RB Ameer Abdullah led the Huskers with 229 rush yards and three total TD against the Hurricanes while QB Armstrong was an efficient 9-of-13 for 113 yards and 2 TD. Defensively they allowed Miami QB Kaaya to have a big day (28-of-42 for 359 yards and 3 TD) but forced three turnovers and limited the effectiveness of RB Duke Johnson (93 rush yards). If Nebraska wants to keep ascending in the B1G, the defense will have to continue to improve, starting with a home date against a potent Illinois pass-offense this Saturday.
The Illini survived disaster last week against FCS Texas State. The Bobcats held a 21-6 lead in the 1st half before Illinois finally woke up. Illinois finally got a breakout performance from RB Josh Ferguson, who rushed for 190 yards and 2 TD after being held to 126 yards and 1 TD in his first three games combined. It became apparent in a blowout loss to Washington that QB Lunt wasn't going to be able to continuously lead this team to victory, so getting some help from the RB position is a much-needed development. The defense still needs a lot of work. A week after surrendering 464 yards and 44 points to Washington, the Illini looked even worse, allowing Texas State to gain 475 yards and 35 points. Bobcats' QB Jones completed 29-of-46 passes for 336 yards and 4 TD. That defense will need to clean things up fast, or Abdullah and this Husker offense will have a field day. These two have met just once as conference foes and that was last year in Lincoln. Nebraska won the game, 39-19, behind Abdullah's 225 rush yards and 2 TD and Armstrong's 135 pass yards and 2 TD.
Nebraska is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three home conference games and the Huskers are 1-3 ATS as a home favorite of 10 points or more in Big Ten conference games. Illinois is 1-4 ATS in its last five conference games as a double-digit underdog.
Best of the Rest
Penn State (-10.5) vs. Northwestern - 12:00 p.m. ET
A week after notching their first conference win over Rutgers, the Nittany Lions easily dispatched the Minutemen of UMass with a 48-7 victory. Although the opposition wasn't the greatest, it was a welcome sign for PSU that it finally got its rushing attack going, notching 228 rush yards on 5.1 YPC (previous game-high was 106 yards). For the first time this season the Nittany Lions weren't dependent on QB Hackenberg leading them to victory - though he's proven that's not the worst plan of attack. UMass' coaching staff praised PSU's defense, specifically the run defense. PSU allowed just 3 rush yards on 28 carries and the Nittany Lions now have the No. 1 rush defense in the nation, surrendering just 45 rush YPG. With an elite QB and a stout defense; if PSU's run game & offensive line continue to improve, the sky is the limit for the Nittany Lions this season.
This week Northwestern visits Happy Valley for the first meeting between these two since 2012. The Wildcats actually won Saturday, but they didn't look particularly good doing so. FCS Western Illinois outgained Northwestern 376-283 and had +7 first downs. The rushing attack was stalled for most of the game (finished with 166 yards on 4 YPC) and QB Siemian had difficulty passing against the FCS opponent. Siemian finished 15-of-25 for just 117 yards. If it weren't for Northwestern's defense forcing four turnovers, this game could've been a complete disaster for the Wildcats. Offensively the Wildcats rank 106th in rush YPG & total YPG and 104th in PPG. Penn State is 5-0 SU & ATS in the last five against Northwestern, winning by an average of 16.4 PPG (all five wins have been by 10 points or more). PSU 11-4 ATS in the last 15 home games and 6-1 ATS in the last seven as a home favorite of 10 points or more.
Indiana (-4.5) vs. Maryland - 1:30 p.m. ET
Indiana notched the biggest non-conference victory by a Big Ten team this season in last week's road win at SEC's Missouri. Indiana scored the go-ahead touchdown with just 22 seconds remaining. Despite not being able to sustain many long drives (1-for-14 on 3rd down), the Hoosiers still racked up 493 yards against a good defense. RB Coleman rushed for 132 yards and a score while QB Sudfeld passed for 252 yards with 1 TD and 0 INT (Indiana didn't commit a turnover). Credit the defense, while it wasn't great (surrendered 503 points and 28 first downs), it was able to lock down in key spots (Tigers were just 5-for-16 on 3rd down) and hold Missouri to just 27 points. The Hoosiers gave up a few big plays, but were able to limit Mizzou QB Mauk to just 29-of-48 passing. It was a much-needed win for the Hoosiers after losing to Bowling Green the week before. Now they'll have to avoid a letdown performance against a Maryland squad playing in its first ever B1G conference game.
After last week's road win at Syracuse, the Terps are now 2-0 on the road and prepping for their 3rd road game of the season this week in Bloomington. While Maryland won the game at Syracuse by 14 points, there are still things to be concerned about, most notably on defense. The Terps surrendered 589 yards and 26 first downs, including 370 rush yards on 7.3 YPC. Had Syracuse not finished -2 in turnovers, this outcome could've been a lot different. Maryland's rushing attack notched just 89 yards on 32 carries (2.8 YPC), but QB Brown had a solid day (16-of-26 for 280 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT). The Terps will have to get better at sustaining drives with their rushing attack, or else this Maryland "D" that ranks 102nd against the run and 108th in YPG allowed will have a tough time against this high-octane Indiana offense. Indiana is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 home games against B1G foes.
The Hoosiers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite between 0 and 7 points. Maryland is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog, but just 3-6 ATS overall in its last nine as an underdog between 0 and 7 points.
Purdue (+9) vs. Iowa - 12:00 p.m. ET
Purdue achieved its 2nd win of the season last week, doubling last year's win total. Sure, it came against FCS Southern Illinois, but it was a promising development heading into Big Ten play. QB Etling played well, tossing for 198 yards and 2 scores on 15-of-26 passing while also rushing for a score. The Boilers also rushed for a solid 183 yards on 4.2 YPC behind a three-headed attack of RB's. Defensively they still need a lot of work. They allowed 330 yards and 20 first downs, and allowed the Salukis to convert on 10-of-18 3rd downs. This is still a team with a lot of questions; most notably on defense and at quarterback.
Purdue will host its first conference game of the season against Iowa, who is off of a big win of its own. The Hawkeyes fought back from a 10-point 2nd half deficit to take the lead with 6:56 remaining in the 4th behind a stellar performance from backup QB Beathard. The defense held Pitt out of the end zone, preserving the 24-20 victory. Credit the Hawkeyes for coming out on top of a game that was largely dominated by the Panthers. Pitt had +124 yards and +7 first downs, but the Panthers 'D' had no answer for Beathard in the 2nd half. Beathard completed 7-of-8 passes for 98 yards after Rudock left with an unspecified injury. The sophomore opened the week of practice as the starter as Rudock is day-to-day with a leg injury. Iowa continues to struggle running the football (under 4 YPC for the 3rd straight week) and an infuse in the passing game behind Beathard could be just what the doctor ordered for the Hawkeyes to spark their offense. Iowa won last year's matchup by 24 points, and is 3-1 SU & ATS in the last four meetings in West Lafayette.
The Hawkeyes are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite of 7 points or more. Purdue is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a home underdog of 7 points or more, losing by an average of 39 points per game.
Michigan (-11.5) vs. Minnesota - 3:30 p.m. ET
Brady Hoke's seat is getting pretty hot in Ann Arbor as his Wolverines continue to underachieve. They are off of an embarrassing home loss to Utah last Saturday. Michigan turned the ball over four times and tallied just 308 total yards and 10 points. QB Gardner, who was 14-of-26 with 2 INT against Utah, was replaced by Shane Morris, who wasn't much of an improvement (4-of-13 with an INT). Brady Hoke hasn't stated which quarterback will get the call this week, but you can expect a little bit of both, regardless of who starts. The rushing attack wasn't much help either, managing just 118 yards on 3.3 YPC. Defensively there aren't a lot of issues as this may be one of the better units in the Big Ten. They held Utah to just 286 yards, including just 81 yards on 2.2 YPC. But that won't matter if Michigan continues to stink it up on offense. First up on the conference slate is a home date with Minnesota.
Minnesota is off of a 17-point home win over San Jose State. The Gophers rushed 58 times for 380 yards and only completed one pass in the victory. Minny will likely have to complete more than one pass, assuming that Michigan's 8th ranked rush defense limits the Gophers ground game. QB Chris Streveler rushed for 161 yards and a touchdown, but it remains to be seen if he is any threat in the passing game. QB Leidner has practiced this week and hasn't been ruled out for this game, but expect that Streveler gets the start. Minnesota hasn't beaten Michigan since 2005. Michigan is 6-0 SU & ATS in the last six meetings, winning by an average of 28.3 PPG (each win by 14 points or more). This will be the 2nd straight meeting in Ann Arbor. Last year, Michigan had just a 14-7 lead at halftime but outscored the Gophers 28-6 in the 2nd half to achieve the 42-13 victory.
Michigan is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games as a favorite of 10 points or more.
Ohio State (-15.5) vs. Cincinnati - 6:00 p.m. ET
The Buckeyes enjoyed a bye week last week after a drubbing of Kent State two weeks ago. The Buckeyes' offense finally broke out against KSU to the tune of 66 points, 33 first downs, and 628 yards. QB J.T. Barrett tossed for 312 yards and 6 TD, gaining some much-needed confidence as the Buckeyes inch closer to conference play. The defense was outstanding as well, holding Kent State to just 126 yards and 10 first downs while pitching a shutout. We know that it was against a lowly MAC program, but it was a much needed dominant performance after the home loss to VA Tech on September 6th. OSU now plays its third consecutive home game when Cincinnati comes to town on Saturday.
Cincinnati has played just two games so far, but its safe to assume the defense isn't great. They allowed 563 yards and 34 points in a win against Toledo, and 364 yards and 24 points to a terrible Miami (OH) team last week. They now rank 111th against the pass and 109th in total defense. That's not a good omen heading into a matchup with an OSU squad that just put up a 66-spot. Former top-QB recruit Gunner Kiel runs the show for Cincinnati's offense after transferring from Notre Dame. He has racked up 689 yards with 10 TD and 2 INT through two games, albeit against two poor defenses. He'll get his first difficult test in the Horseshoe on Saturday against OSU's pass-defense that is surrendering just 99.3 pass YPG (3rd nationally) with 2 TD allowed and 5 INT. These in-state foes have met twice since 2004 with the last matchup in 2006. OSU finished 2-0 SU & ATS in those two games, winning by an average score of 32-6.5. OSU is 24-14 ATS in its last 38 home games.
The Bucks are just 2-7 ATS in its last nine as a favorite between 10 and 20 points. Cincinnati is 0-4 SU & ATS in its last four home openers and just 5-10-1 ATS in the last 16 games as a double-digit underdog.
Wisconsin (-34) vs. South Florida - 12:00 p.m. ET
The Badgers had no issues at home against Bowling Green last week. They rushed for the fourth-most yards in Big Ten history (644) behind a HUGE day from RB Gordon. After notching just 38 yards on 17 carries against FCS Western Illinois; the star RB ran angry. He rushed for 253 yards and five TD on just 13 carries. It was one of the most dominating rushing performances you'll ever see as Gordon, QB McEvoy, and backup RB Clement all topped 100 yards - 3rd string RB Ogunbowale nearly hit the century mark but finished just short with 94 rush yards. Wisconsin will continue to pound the ball to aid 1st year starting QB McEvoy who continues to improve each week (32-of-44 passing for 395 yards with 4 TD the last two games). Defensively it may just be the competition, but the Badgers defense looks to be one of the top units in the B1G. They rank 15th against the run, 25th against the pass, and 14 in PPG allowed. The defensive unit should have another solid day against this struggling USF offense.
The Bulls had a three-point home win over UConn last week to improve their record to 2-2 on the season. It wasn't a pretty performance as USF tallied just 271 yards in the pouring rain, including 158 rush yards on 3.0 YPC. The Bulls' offense is now 119th in pass yards, 118th in total yards, and 101st in PPG. Their QB play has been below-average at best as three players have combined for 39% completions with 2 TD and 5 INT through four games. USF QB's will have another tough day against this Badgers pass-defense that has surrendered just 49.3% completions with 2 TD and 2 INT this season. The Badgers are 62-7 SU at home over the last 10 years - 30-0 SU against non-conference opponents.
Wisconsin is 8-3 in its last 11 home games as a favorite of 20 points or more. USF is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games and 6-3 ATS in their last 9 road openers (includes covers against Penn State in 2005 and Michigan State in 2013).
Michigan State (-31) vs. Wyoming - 12:00 p.m. ET
The Spartans continue to look like the best team in the Big Ten after an absolutely dominating performance against Eastern Michigan. Take a look at some of these offensive numbers for EMU: 135 total yards, 5 first downs, 20 rush yards on 19 carries, 1-for-13 on 3rd down, and 10-of-29 passing. A lot of the Spartans' starters didn't even get two full quarters of play before they were replaced and MSU still won, 73-14. It was just the type of dominating performance the Spartans needed after losing their last game to Oregon. This week it could be more of the same as Wyoming visits for MSU's homecoming.
Wyoming isn't as bad as Eastern Michigan, but the Cowboys' struggling offense will be hard pressed to put up points against this Spartans defense. Wyoming ranks 102nd in yards per game and 121st in points per game. They haven't scored more than 20 points in a game yet this season. Defensively they held three of their four opponents below 20 points, but Oregon put up 48 points and 556 yards in a 34 point loss on September 13th. Wyoming is in a letdown spot here after beating Florida Atlantic by one point last week on a field goal with 15 seconds remaining.
Michigan State is 4-2 ATS since 2010 as a favorite of 30 points or more and 6-3 ATS in the last nine as a double-digit favorite against non-conference foes. Wyoming is 4-0 in its last four games as an underdog of 30 points or more.
Rutgers (-11.5) vs. Tulane - 12:00 p.m. ET
Rutgers notched a solid road win over Navy last weekend, a much-needed victory after dropping a close one to Penn State on September 13. The Scarlet Knights jumped out to an early lead and were able to control the TOP, something that rarely happens against Navy. They limited Navy to just 171 rush yards - 174 below Navy's season average. Rutgers QB Nova was an efficient 11-of-14 passing for 151 yards while the Knights also rushed for 284 yards on 5.1 YPC. The win came at a price, however, as Rutgers lost star tailback Paul James to a season-ending torn ACL. James was Rutgers’ workhorse, the most consistent part about the Knights’ offense. In James’ first three games this season, he accounted for more than 60 percent of the team’s rushing yards while scoring 7 total TD. It was a promising sign that James' replacement, Justin Goodwin, rushed for 104 yards on 26 carries with 1 TD last week after James left with an injury. Still, losing James will be a big blow for this already struggling offense.
Goodwin and this rush offense will have a chance to get right without James against the Green Wave rush-defense that allows 203 YPG on the ground. Tulane is 1-3 this season with the lone victory coming against FCS Southeastern Louisiana. The Wave are off of a blowout loss to Duke last week. Duke forced five Tulane turnovers - returning 2 INT for TD - and limited the Wave to just 5-for-18 on 3rd down and 13 total points. Tulane QB Lee has been awful. He's completing just 47.4% of his passes with 8 TD and 9 INT. These two have met twice since 2010. Rutgers is 0-2 ATS in both meetings.
Rutgers is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 home games and also just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games as a favorite of 10 points or more. Tulane is 16-9 ATS in its last 23 games, but just 1-3 ATS so far this year.
