Big Ten Report - Week 4
September 18, 2014
GAME OF THE WEEK
Miami (Fla.) at Nebraska (-7) - 8:00 p.m. ET
The Huskers did an excellent job of not letting the trip to Fresno State become a "trap game" a week before Saturday's big matchup with Miami. Nebraska scored two long touchdowns in the first three minutes of the game to set the tone en route to 562 total yards and 55 points. The Huskers had six touchdowns of 20+ yards, including an 86-yard punt return for TD. RB Abdullah had another solid outing as he tallied 110 rush yards on 19 carries with a touchdown. We know Fresno is a bit down this year, but it was a promising performance for the Huskers on the road. Next up Nebraska's 5th ranked offense will get its first real test against the Hurricanes, who rank 10th in total defense. Miami has had two big home wins over FCS Florida A&M and Arkansas State the last two weeks after losing @Louisville to open the season. Freshman QB Brad Kaaya threw for 342 yards and 4 TD in last week's victory, but he's still prone to making the occasional freshman mistake as he already has 5 INT through three games. It helps that he has one of the nation's top RB's, Duke Johnson, sharing the backfield. Johnson has 277 rush yards (6.4 YPC) and two scores this season. Miami's defense vs. Nebraska's offense will be fun to watch. Miami surrenders just 92 rush yards per game on a measly 2.2 YPC. Abdullah will have to work to find space against this Miami front seven. The series is tied 5-5 between these two historical programs, with the last meeting coming in 2001. The Huskers are 51-4 SU hosting their last 55 non-conference opponents, but they are just 1-5 ATS in the last 6 non-conference games against Power Five conference opponents. Miami is just 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference road games as an underdog - including 0-4 SU & ATS as an underdog of seven points or more.
BEST OF THE REST
Utah at Michigan (-5) - 3:30 PM ET
After getting embarrassed against rival Notre Dame, the last thing Michigan needed was a scare from a Miami (OH) team that had lost 18 straight games. The Wolverines struggled for the better part of two quarters before pulling away late, 34-10. Despite letting the Redhawks hang around entirely too long, the Wolves still had +262 yards and +15 first downs. They held Miami to just 33 rush yards on 24 carries (1.4 YPC) and forced Redhawk QB Hendrix into just 12-of-26 passing for 165 yards. Michigan's RB Derrick Green led Michigan with 137 rush yards and 2 TD on 22 carries. QB Gardner was had an efficient day, completing 13-of-20 passes for 184 yards and 2 scores. We still have yet to see Michigan put it all together against a quality opponent; but this week's matchup with Pac-12 Utah will be another opportunity for the Wolves. Utah had last week off to prepare for this, their first road trip of the season. The Utes easily dispatched FCS Idaho state, 56-14, in week one and Fresno State, 59-27, in week two. Starting QB Wilson has been very good through two games - 446 pass yards, 6 TD, and 0 INT on 11.7 YPA - albeit against two sub par defenses. Wilson has two top playmakers on offense: RB Devontae Booker (20 carries for 145 yards and 2 TD) and WR Anderson, who is one of the top deep threats in the nation (18.7 YPC in 2013, 27.9 YPC so far this season). These two have only met twice in their history, both in Ann Arbor with both games decided by a total of five points (last meeting was 2008). Utah covered both of those games and is 4-0 ATS against Big Ten squads dating back to 2000. Michigan is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 games hosting non-conference opponents. Utah is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 as an underdog of five points or more.
Indiana (+13) at Missouri - 4:00 PM ET
Hopes were high for a bowl run this year, but after a deflating loss to Bowling Green last week, it appears that the Hoosiers still aren't quite ready for primetime. There were 10 lead changes and 87 total points last week, with BG scoring the final touchdown with nine seconds remaining give the Falcons the win. Much like last year, Indiana's offense will have no problem putting up yards and points, but the defense will continue to hold them back. The Hoosiers rushed for 235 yards (6.4 YPC), passed for 347 yards, and were +1 in turnover ratio against BG last week. Unfortunately the defense allowed 571 yards and 39 first downs, including 395 pass yards and 3 pass TD to BG's 2nd string QB. IU goes on the road again this week to face an SEC school off to a hot start. Missouri is off to a 3-0 start and has won each of those games by 20+ points. On the offensive side, QB Maty Mauk is on a torrid pace as he already has 12 pass TD. RB's Hansbrough & Murphy each have 200+ rush yards on an identical 5.5 YPC average. They've picked up right where they left off in 2013, when they averaged 39 PPG and 471 YPG. Defensively the Tigers put together a solid performance against UCF last week, allowing just 299 yards and forcing four turnovers. UCF only managed 90 rush yards on 2.3 YPC. The Tigers will have to avoid looking ahead to next week as they visit South Carolina in a rematch of a double-overtime loss in 2013 - the only team to beat Mizzou in the regular season. These two met last season in Indiana. The game was tied 14-14 midway through the 2nd quarter, but two quick Mizzou scores prior to halftime - including a 49-yard INT return TD - allowing the Tigers to pull away (45-28 Missouri win). Missouri tallied 623 yards on offense and intercepted IU's Sudfeld three times. Indiana is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games and 4-11 ATS in its last 15 road games as a double-digit underdog. Missouri is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games as a double-digit favorite.
Iowa (+6.5) at Pittsburgh - 12:00N ET
Iowa's mediocre play was enough to overcome FCS Northern Iowa in week one (8-point win) and Ball State in week two (4-point win), but it came back to bite the Hawkeyes last week against bitter-rival Iowa State. Iowa continued to struggled running the football (129 yards on 2.9 YPC) and the Hawks now rank 95th in rushing after three weeks. QB Jake Rudock is not good enough to lead the Hawks to victory on his own - 146 yards and an INT last Saturday - and Iowa will need to figure out its rushing woes if it wants to contend in the Big Ten. Defensively the Hawkeyes were stout against the run vs. ISU, allowing just 82 yards on 26 carries (3.2 YPC), but ISU QB Richardson had a big day. He completed 25-of-37 passes for 255 yards and 2 scores, leading ISU to the three-point win. Iowa will have its hands full when it visits Pitt this weekend. The Panthers come in averaging 344.3 rush yards per game (5th nationally) and 44.7 PPG (18th nationally). Iowa will want to limit Pitt's rushing attack and make sophomore QB Voytik make plays. Voytik has 5 TD and 2 INT so far, but is completing just 58% for 95 YPG through in his first year as a starter. Pitt HC Paul Chryst was formerly the offensive coordinator at Wisconsin, so he has a good idea of what he'll be facing this weekend when Iowa comes to town. These two last met in 2011. Pitt held a 27-10 lead @Iowa, but the Hawkeyes scored the final 21 points in a 31-27 win. Iowa is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine road games against non-Big Ten schools. Iowa is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 road games as an underdog of five points or more.
Eastern Michigan at Michigan State (-45.5) - 12:00N ET
Michigan State had last week off after its deflating loss at Oregon in week two. For the better part of two quarters, Michigan State looked like the superior team to Oregon, leading 27-18 midway through the 3rd quarter. The wheels came off after that as Oregon scored the final 28 points of the game in the 46-27 win. MSU QB Cook completed just 29-of-47 passes and had 2 costly INT's while the rushing attack never really got going (123 yards on 3.4 YPC). The defense was good for a while, but Oregon's up-tempo pace clearly exhausted the Spartans in the 90+ degree temperatures. MSU allowed Oregon's Heisman candidate QB Mariota to throw for 318 yards and 3 scores while the Ducks added 173 rush yards. The 46 points allowed by MSU was the most under Dantonio since allowing 49 to #7 Penn State in 2008. Sparty is expecting a big bounce back win and the oddsmakers agree, slotting them as a 45.5-point favorite - the largest spread for MSU against a FBS school under Dantonio. Eastern Michigan takes to the road for the third time in three weeks after losing @Florida (0-65) and @Old Dominion (3-17). There's not a lot of good things to say about EMU. The Eagles rank 124th in yards per game (243.7) and 125th in points per game (11.3). Things aren't much better on defensive side of the ball as they allow 500 YPG and 36.7 PPG. They have a revolving door at QB as neither Brogan Roback nor Reginald Bell have seized the position. Former PSU QB Rob Bolden (17 career starts) led EMU on their lone scoring drive last week and coach Creighton said that Bolden could get the start this week. MSU is 6-0 SU & 4-1 ATS since 1993 against Eastern Michigan, winning by an average of 36.6 PPG. Eastern Michigan is 0-17 SU & 6-11 ATS since 1998 against Big Ten schools.
Massachusetts at Penn State (-26.5) - 4:00 PM ET
The Nittany Lions received news last week that they are allowed to go to a bowl game this year and after the win at Rutgers, they're halfway to eligibility. It definitely wasn't easy for the Nittany Lions against Rutgers. They had to battle back from a 10-0 halftime deficit and didn't take the lead until 1:13 remaining in the 4th quarter. PSU, once again, had trouble rushing the football, tallying just 64 yards on 33 carries (1.9 YPC). QB Hackenberg yet again had to lead the Lions to victory with a gritty performance (25-of-44 for 309 yards). Credit the defense for holding the Scarlet Knights to just 294 yards and 15 first downs, while also forcing five interceptions. PSU isn't bulletproof, but an opportunistic defense and a clutch QB will work wonders for a team. If they can figure out their offensive line/rushing issues, the Nittany Lions will be a force to be reckoned with in the Big Ten. They'll have a chance to work on things as they take on Massachusetts this weekend. UMass is 0-3, but credit the Minutemen for playing hard for 60 minutes in all three losses. They were down 13-0 in the 3rd quarter against Boston College (L 7-30), had a chance to upset Colorado (L 38-41), and led the entire game @Vanderbilt before the Commodores took a lead with 1:08 remaining (L 31-34). If those three games are any indication, then UMass will not be a pushover here against the Nittany Lions. Penn State is just 4-8 ATS its last 12 games as a favorite of 20 points or more. Since becoming an FBS school in 2012, the Minutemen are 2-25 SU & 11-16 ATS. They are 5-10 ATS in the last 15 as an underdog of 15 points or more.
Bowling Green at Wisconsin (-27) - 12:00N ET
The Badgers were off Saturday but probably gained a bit more respect for their next opponent, as Bowling Green upset Indiana. In UW's last game, it wasn't easy to watch as the Badgers struggled to just a 9-3 halftime lead against FCS Western Illinois, but credit the Badgers for coming out hot in the 2nd half and racing to a 37-3 victory. Western Illinois stacked the box against the Badgers, limiting star RB Gordon to just 38 yards on 17 carries. QB McEvoy, who looked helpless in the week one loss to LSU, finally showed why he won the starting job. McEvoy completed 23-of-28 passes, including 17 straight at one point - for 283 yards with 3 TD and 1 INT. It was a promising sight as McEvoy shined and the defense held Western Illinois to just 162 total yards and 11 first downs. Wisconsin will try to get Gordon back on track against this BG defense that allowed 235 rush yards to Indiana last week and ranks 125th nationally in yards allowed. Wisconsin has a better defense than IU and Bowling Green will have a difficult time moving the ball as easily as they did last week against the Hoosiers (571 total yards). The Falcons have been hit hard by the injury bug. They've already lost their starting QB and a starting WR to season-ending injuries and now they could be without four starters on defense for this game. Despite Bowling Green's solid win over Indiana, the oddsmakers aren't giving the Falcons much of a chance this weekend. The line on this game opened with Wisconsin favored by -21 and as of Wednesday morning it had already risen to -27. The Badgers are 61-7 SU at home over the last 10 years - 29-0 SU against non-conference opponents. Wisconsin is 7-3 in its last 10 home games as a favorite of 20 points or more. The Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 20 points or more.
Rutgers (+6) at Navy - 3:30 PM ET
Rutgers put together 58 minutes of excellent defense against Penn State last week, keeping the Nittany Lions out of the endzone and preserving a 10-6 lead. PSU went on a 80 yard drive that ended in a touchdown with just 1:49 left to take the lead & seal the victory. A lot of the blame can go square on the shoulders of QB Gary Nova, who had an absolutely abysmal game. Nova completed just 15-of-30 passes for 192 yards with 0 TD and 5 INT. Other than the performance by Nova, there's a lot of positives to take away from the loss. They surrendered just 64 rush yards on 33 carries and held star QB Hackenberg to just 25-of-44 passing with 0 TD and 1 INT. Next up the Scarlet Knights have to prepare for the unique triple-option attack as they travel to Navy to take on the Midshipmen. After losing in week one against Ohio State, Navy has put together back-to-back quality road wins at Temple and Texas State. (2-0 ATS). Their option attack has them 1st nationally in rush yards per game (403 rush YPG) as five players already have 140+ rush yards. They rushed it 57 times for 352 yards against Texas State last week despite not having the services of QB Keenan Reynolds (knee bruise). Reynolds was back at practice during the week and expects to start this game. Navy is just 3-8 ATS as a home favorite of fewer than 10 points. The Midshipmen are just 2-6 ATS in the last eight against B1G teams, including a loss to Ohio State in week one. Rutgers is 15-4-1 ATS in the last 20 as a road underdog, including a SU win over Washington State in week one.
Maryland (+1) at Syracuse - 12:30 PM ET
The Terrapins, like Rutgers, let one get away last week. Saturday's 40-37 home loss to West Virginia featured all kinds of drama and wild momentum swings that ended with a WVU 47-yard field goal at the buzzer, giving the Mountaineers the victory. Maryland's defense was overmatched by the up-tempo WVU attack. The Terps allowed 694 total yards and 33 first downs, including 511 passing yards and 4 pass TD to WVU QB Trickett. Maryland QB Brown did all that he could to keep the Terps afloat (241 pass yards, 161 rush yards), but the defense couldn't make plays when it counted. The Terps should be concerned that QB Brown accounted for 161 of their 163 rush yards, and their leading RB rusher has just 142 yards through three games. Maryland will travel to Syracuse this weekend in a rematch of an ACC matchup last year. The Terps tallied just 292 yards and 3 points in last year's home loss to the Orange. Syracuse has been sort of "Jekyll and Hyde" through their first two games. The Orange barely beat FCS Villanova in week one (W 27-26 in OT) but a blowout win over Central Michigan last week (W 40-3) got them back on track. Syracuse had +247 yards and +11 first downs over the Chippewas. QB Hunt had a breakout performance as he accounted for 267 yards and 4 TD. The Orange defense allowed just 34 rush yards on 23 carries (1.5 YPC) and held CMU to just 1-for-10 on 3rd down. With 15 starters returning from last year's team that finished 7-6, we have to believe that the arrow is pointing up for this team. Syracuse is 6-3 ATS in their last nine home games. Maryland is just 1-5 ATS in the week following the West Virginia rivalry game.
Texas State at Illinois (-14) - 4:00 PM ET
The Illini looked completely outmatched in their trip to Washington last week. Two early Illinois turnovers were returned for TD and that allowed the Huskies to go into halftime with a 38-12 lead. Illinois didn't put up much of a fight in the 2nd half as the Huskies coasted to a 44-19 victory. Illinois managed just 15 first downs (1-for-11 on 3rd down) and rushed for just 72 yards on 26 carries (2.8 YPC) despite playing a Washington defense that looked very vulnerable through its first two games. It's beginning to be a worrisome trend for Illinois - along with a number of other Big Ten squads - that they can't muster much of a rushing attack. The Illini have failed to exceed 78 rush yards in a game through three weeks. This weekend's opponent, Texas State, ranks 116th against the rush, so if Illinois can't get a rushing attack going this weekend, then it's really time to panic. The Bobcats defeated FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff in week one and lost to Navy last week. This will be their first road trip of the season and only their 2nd game ever against a Big Ten school (42-0 loss to Minnesota in 2002). Texas State has had three games against Power 5 schools over the past three years - all against Texas Tech. They are 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS, losing by an average of 38 PPG. Illinois is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games as a double-digit home favorite.
San Jose State vs. Minnesota (-8.5) - 4:00 PM ET
Minnesota didn't put up much of a fight in its trip to TCU last week. The Horned Frogs jumped out to a 24-0 halftime lead and cruised to a 30-7 victory. It became very apparent that the Gophers won't be able to contend in the Big Ten this year with their current passing attack. QB Leidner, who is a strong runner, isn't going to get it done through the air. He completed just 12-of-26 passes for 151 yards with 0 TD and 3 INT. His lack of progress last week repeatedly killed drives (Minnesota was 3-for-16 on 3rd down). Granted, he was a bit hobbled by a leg injury, but he was healthy enough to start. Through the first two weeks, Minnesota's rushing attack was solid enough to offset their passing deficiency. Against TCU, they were held to just 99 rush yards (2.5 YPC) and the 120th ranked passing attack couldn't lift them up. Next up they host San Jose State for the second consecutive year. Last year Minnesota held just a 20-17 halftime lead. The Gophers scored the first 23 points in the 2nd half and outgained SJSU 193-30 in that span. San Jose State was blown out by Auburn in their last game two weeks ago. The Spartans allowed Auburn to gain 358 rush yards and 26 first downs in the 59-13 rout. Minnesota is just 4-12 ATS in its last 16 when favored by a touchdown or more. San Jose State is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games, but one of those losses was last year at Minnesota.
Western Illinois at Northwestern (no line) - 12:00N ET
Northwestern has dropped nine of its last 10 games, dating back to last season. They're 0-2 this year, but appear to be a solid bet to notch their first win against FCS Western Illinois this weekend. They had last week off after losing at home to Northern Illinois on September 6th. Northwestern continues to lose in heartbreaking fashion. Five of their seven losses in 2013 were by 10 points or fewer and they've already dropped two such games this season. Northern Illinois came into Evanston and handed Northwestern a 23-15 loss. NIU rushed for 221 yards on 4.0 YPC while QB Hare tossed 2 TD on just 10 attempts. Northwestern was stalled on offense as they totaled just 72 rush yards on 37 carries (1.9 YPC). To make matters worse, QB Siemian left in the 4th quarter with a leg injury. Siemian is back and will start on Saturday. Western Illinois traveled to Camp Randall to take on fellow Big Ten member Wisconsin on September 6th. They managed just 162 yards and 11 first downs in the 37-3 loss. Northwestern has won seven straight against FCS opponents by an average of 27 points per game.
Southern Illinois at Purdue (no line) - 12:00N ET
Purdue had a solid effort last week as a 30-point underdog against Notre Dame. The Boilermakers played on par with the Irish for the better part of two quarters before ND pulled away for the 30-14 win. It was a bit of a "moral victory" after Purdue got blown out by Central Michigan on September 6th - the same Central Michigan that just lost to Syracuse by 37 points. QB Etling had a solid outing as he completed 27-of-40 passes for 234 yards with 2 TD along with 2 INT. Purdue's defense had no answer for ND QB Golson, who accounted for 315 total yards and 3 TD. Purdue still appears to be one of the bottom-feeders in the Big Ten, and after this week against FCS Southern Illinois, they'll likely be the underdog in every game. Southern Illinois is ranked 13th in the FCS and has outscored its opponents 133-44. We'll find out Saturday if Purdue is better than the 13th ranked FCS program.
Ohio State - Bye Week
The Buckeyes' offense finally broke out against Kent State last week to the tune of 66 points, 33 first downs, and 628 yards. QB J.T. Barrett tossed for 312 yards and 6 TD, gaining some much-needed confidence as the Buckeyes inch closer to conference play. The defense was outstanding as well, holding Kent State to just 126 yards and 10 first downs while pitching a shutout. We know that it was against a lowly MAC program, but it was a much needed dominant performance after the home loss to VA Tech on September 6th. The Buckeyes will take this week off before they face Cincinnati on Sept. 27.
