Cnote's College Footall Best Bets For August-Sept- Conference Recaps, Trends, Stats!

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Thursday, September 11


Chance of thunderstorms for Thursday night game

According to Weather Underground, forecasts are calling for a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms in Denton, TX as the North Texas Mean Green host the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Thursday evening.

Temperatures look to be in the mid-70s for kickoff and wind will from the north at six mph.

The Mean Green are currently 3.5-point home faves and the total opened at 48.


Syracuse and Central Michigan could see rainstorm

The Syracuse Orange and Central Michigan Chippewas will be playing in less than ideal conditions Saturday. At kickoff there is a 60 percent chance of rain and there will be winds gusting from seven to nine miles per hour.

Central Michigan are 7-point home dogs Saturday.

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 3

September 9, 2014


Thursday, September 11

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at

LA TECH at NORTH TEXAS
LT turnaround with covers first two TY after 4-13 mark vs. line entering 2014. UNT 7-1 vs. spread last eight at Denton.

Slight UNT, based on team trends.


HOUSTON at BYU
Cougs 4-1 as dog in 2013 including home cover vs. BYU. But UH just 3-5 last 8 on board after covering previous nine. BYU 14-7 as Provo chalk since 2010 and 17-8 as DD chalk since 2009.

BYU, based on extended trends.


Friday, September 12

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


TOLEDO at CINCINNATI
Rockets 9-2 as visiting dog since 2011. Also covered 7 of last 9 as non-MAC reg.-season visitor. Tuberville just 4-5 as chalk LY.

Toledo, based on team trends.


BAYLOR at BUFFALO
Bulls 5-6 as home dog for Jeff Quinn since 2010. Art Briles 28-12 overall vs. line since 2011 but only 2-8 as visiting chalk since 2008.

Baylor, based on overall spread mark.


Saturday, September 13

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


INDIANA at BOWLING GREEN
Hoosiers 3-6 as road dog past two years, but routed BGSU LY at home. IU 6-9 vs. line away for Kevin Wilson since 2011. Falcs 11-6 vs. line at Doyt Perry since 2011

BGSU, based on team trends.


OHIO at MARSHALL
Revenge for Herd after 34-31 loss to Ohio LY. Herd 7-0 as home chalk LY, and home team 3-1 vs. spread in Marshall games since 2013. Solich 0-5 as road dog since LY.

Marshall, based on team trends.


UCF at MISSOURI
O'Leary 4-0 as dog LY, 20-10 in role since 2007. Pinkel only 5-6 last 11 vs. points as non-conf. host.

UCF, based on team trends.


NC STATE at SOUTH FLORIDA
Doeren no covers last seven and just 1-9 vs. line last nine since mid 2013. Pack 2-11-1 vs. number as visitor since 2011. USF just 3-17-1 last 21 vs. spread at Tampa (2-7 for Taggart).

Slight to USF, based on extended NCS woes.


MIAMI-OHIO at MICHIGAN
Miami 6-18-1 vs. line since 2012, and RedHawks only 2-11 as road dog past two seasons. Wolverines 1-3 vs. line last four after Notre Dame, but Hoke 10-4 as DD chalk since 2011.

Michigan, based on team trends.


KENT STATE at OHIO STATE
Urban Meyer only 3-5 vs. line as non-Big 10 host since 2012, and Meyer only 8-11 as DD chalk that span. Flashes 6-4 as visiting dog since 2012

Kent State, based on team trends.


EASTERN MICHIGAN at OLD DOMINION
EMU 3-16 last 19 on board and 3-10 vs. spread away since 2012.

OSU, based on EMU negatives.


EAST CAROLINA at VIRGINIA TECH
Ruffin McNeill 6-10 as visiting dog since 2010. But Beamer only 6-12-1 as home chalk since 2011, and failed to cover vs. ECU in 2011 & 2013.

ECU, based on team and recent series trends.


SYRACUSE at CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Cuse only 4-7 as chalk since 2012, but Chips 0-5 as home dog since 2012 and 1-7 in role since 2011.

Syracuse, based on team trends.


PITT at FIU
Golden Panthers now 10-17 last 27 on board. Also 3-8 since 2012 as home dog.

Pitt, based on FIU negatives.


BOISE STATE at UCONN
UConn was 11-2 as home dog since 2009 entering season but no covers first two at home TY. Boise 22-9 as visiting chalk since 2008.

Boise, based on extended trends.


GEORGIA SOUTHERN at GEORGIA TECH
Paul Johnson vs. old employer. GT 11-6-1 as home chalk since 2011, 12-5-1 overall as chalk since 2012.

GT, based on home chalk marks.


IOWA STATE at IOWA
ISU has covered 7 of last 10 meetings and 7 of last 8 vs. Hawkeyes in Iowa City. Ferentz 4-11 last 15 as home chalk since late 2011. Cyclones 4-1 vs. spread last five as reg.-season non-Big 12 visitor.

ISU, based on series trends.


WEST VIRGINIA at MARYLAND
Terps have won and covered last four as non-conf. host (counts 2013 at Balt. vs. WVU). Terps 7-3 vs. spread in first four games of season since 2012.

Maryland, based on team trends.


UMASS at VANDERBILT
UMass covered last year's game at Gillette Stadium. Not sure how much to shade pre-Mason Vandy trends, as Dores were 9-3 as home chalk 2011-13 but now 0-2 SU and vs. line TY.

Slight to UMass, based on recent Vandy woes.


LOUISVILLE at VIRGINIA
Cavs 2-0 vs. line TY but were 3-11-2 last 16 vs. spread at home entering 2014.

Louisville, based on UVa home woes.


WYOMING at OREGON
Ducks 8-9 last 17 as Eugene chalk, 3-5 last 8 vs. points as non-Pac host. Wyo 17-6 as visiting dog since 2009 and 8-2 last 10 vs. line as non-MW visitor.

Wyo, based on team trends.


AIR FORCE at GEORGIA STATE
GSU was 4-1 as Georgia Dome dog last season. Force 0-4 as road chalk since 2012 and 6-20 overall vs. line since 2012.

Slight to GSU, based on team trends.


WESTERN KENTUCKY at MIDDLE TENNESSEE
MT 6-2-1 last nine at home. WKU 7-2 last 9 as visiting dog.

Slight to WKU, based on team trends.


KANSAS at DUKE
Weis 9-14 vs. line with Jayhawks, just 4-7 as road dog since 2012. KU 5-11 in role since 2011. Cutcliffe 8-1 last 9 as Durham chalk, 11-4-1 last 16 on board overall.

Duke, based on team trends.


GEORGIA at SOUTH CAROLINA
Spurrier 4-1-2 last 7 vs. line against Richt, and Spurrier has won and covered last two meetings at Columbia. Richt 0-5 as visiting dog since 2010.

SC, based on team and series trends.


ARKANSAS at TEXAS TECH
Red Raiders just 4-9 last 13 as Lubbock chalk (1-4 for Kingsbury), TT also no covers last seven reg.-season games.

Arkansas, based on recent TT marks.


ARKANSAS STATE at MIAMI-FLORIDA
Canes 1-9 vs. line last 10 since mid 2013, Canes also 14-26 as home chalk since 2007. Red Wolves 8-3 as visiting dog since 2011.

Ark State, based on team trends.


MISSISSIPPI STATE at SOUTH ALABAMA
MSU 6-1 vs. line last 7 since late 2013 and Bulldogs were 4-1 vs. line away from Starkville LY. USA 9-4 vs. line since LY but 1-3 as home dog since 2012.

MSU, based on recent trends.


UL-LAFAYETTE at OLE MISS
Hugh Freeze teams now 29-11 vs. line since 2011. Rebs 6-3 as home chalk for Freeze. Cajuns 11-4 as visiting dog since 2011 though only 2-3 in role LY.

Ole Miss, based on Hugh Freeze trends.


ILLINOIS at WASHINGTON
Chris Petersen teams just 6-13 their last 19 on board. Huskies only 4-7 as DD chalk since 2012. Illini, however, just 1-7 as visiting dog for Beckman since 2012.

Slight to UW, based on Illini negatives.


MINNESOTA at TCU
Jerry Kill 3-1 as visiting dog LY. Kill 11-5 last 16 on board. Frogs just 5-9 as home chalk since 2011 and 6-18-1 overall as chalk that span.

Minnesota, based on TCU chalk woes.


WESTERN MICHIGAN at IDAHO
Vandals 6-19 vs. line since 2012 and 2-8 against spread ay Kibbie Dome that span. Broncs only 9-17 vs. spread since 2012 and 5-3 last 8 vs. line on road.

WMU, based on Idaho woes.


ARMY at STANFORD
West Point covered easily LY at Michie. Cardinal just 2-4 vs. line last six after facing SC. Tree 5-9 as Farm chalk since 2012. .

Army, based on Stanford Farm chalk woes.


SOUTHERN MISS at ALABAMA
USM 1-24 SU and 6-19 vs. line post-Fedora. Nick only 5-9 laying 20 or more at Tuscaloosa since 2012.

Slight to Alabama, based on USM woes.


WAKE FOREST at UTAH STATE
Clawson covered 8 of last 9 as visitor with BGSU but 0-1 in role with Deacs. Wake also just 8-16 last 24 as visiting dog after ULM loss.

Slight to Utah State, based on team trends.


TULSA at FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Not sure where FAU goes under Partridge after over achieving vs. line past two seasons when covering 17 of 24. Tulsa just 4-10 vs. spread since LY and if dog note mere 1-4 mark last five in role.

Slight to FAU, based on team trends.


UTSA at OKLAHOMA STATE
UTSA now 6-1 last seven vs. spread since late LY, also "under" last 6 and 8 of last 9. Coker covered vs. OSU LY. Gundy, however, 23-10 as Stillwater chalk since 2008, and Cowboys 35-18-1 vs. line overall since 2010.

Slight to UTSA, based on recent trends.


UL-MONROE at LSU
ULM 10-6 as visiting dog since 2011 but just 6-7 as DD dog for Todd Berry since 2010. Les Miles just 5-10 laying DD since 2012 and 6-9 laying 20 or more since 2011.

Slight to ULM, based on team trends.


PURDUE vs. NOTRE DAME (at Indianapolis)
Purdue 4-11 last 15 on board. Boilermakers haven't beaten ND SU since 2007 but have covered 3 of last 5 meetings. Golson now 9-4-1 vs. line as QB for Irish since 2012.

ND, based on recent Purdue woes.


KENTUCKY at FLORIDA
Gators have covered last seven vs. UK, which hasn't beaten Florida SU since 1986! Cats 4-12 as road dog since 2010. Muschamp just 5-12 as chalk since 2012.

Slight to Florida, based on series trends.


NAVY at TEXAS STATE
Mids 7-2 vs. line last 9 away from Annapolis, and have covered 11 of last 15 on board. Franchione only 2-4 overall vs. line at Bobcat Stadium LY.

Navy, based on recent trends.


TENNESSEE at OKLAHOMA
UT 3-8 as visiting dog since 2011 (Butch Jones 1-3 in role LY). Stoops only 7-9 laying DD since 2012, however, and no covers last four at Norman vs. non-Big 12 foes.

Slight to UT, based on OU negatives.


NEW MEXICO STATE at UTEP
Ags haven't beaten nearby UTEP SU since 2008 and haven't covered last five vs. Miners, either. NMSU just 2-8-1 as road dog since 2012.

UTEP, based on series trends.


UCLA vs. TEXAS (at Jerry Jones AT&T Stadium, Arlington)
road. Horns just 7-13 as dog since 2009,

Slight to UCLA, based on team trends.


PENN STATE at RUTGERS
Rutgers 12-5 as dog since 2011, 7-3 in role for Kyle Flood, 16-5 SU at home since 2011.

Rutgers, based on team trends.


SOUTHERN CAL at BOSTON COLLEGE
C 9-4 vs. line as host since 2012. SC 8-19 as visiting chalk since 2008. Sarkisian just 2-3 as road chalk past three years at U-Dub.

BC, based on team trends.


RICE at TEXAS A&M
Even after ND loss, Rice 6-2 as visiting dog since 2012, but Owls have now dropped 4 of last 5 vs. line. Sumlin 3-6 laying DD in 2013 but has covered first two in 2014.

Slight to A&M, based on recent trends.


NORTHERN ILLINOIS at UNLV
Bobby Hauck 12-5-1 as home dog since 2010. But NIU 13-2 vs. line last 15 as visitor.

Slight to NIU, based on team trends.


ARIZONA STATE at COLORADO
Buffs have covered 5 of last 7 at Boulder (MacIntyre 4-2 LY) but have been destroyed past three years by ASU, losing and failing to cover all and never closer than 34 points. Todd Graham 5-1 as visiting chalk since 2012.

ASU, based on series trends.


NEBRASKA at FRESNO STATE
Bulldogs 4-11-1 last 16 on board since late 2012. FSU also just 2-5 vs. spread at Dog House LY. Bo Pelini 4-1 vs. line away from Lincoln LY.

Nebraska, based on recent trends.


NEVADA at ARIZONA
Pack just 4-8 vs. spread as visitor since 2012, but is 6-3 as DD dog since 2011. Rich-Rod has covered five straight vs. non-Pac foes at Tucson.

Arizona, based on team trends.

 

[CNOTES]

Bulls aim to upset No. 8 Baylor

September 10, 2014


Baylor Bears (2-0) vs. Buffalo Bulls (1-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Baylor -34, Total: 67.5

No. 8 Baylor has dominated over its first two contests and looks to remain undefeated when it travels to Buffalo on Friday night.

Baylor has had no issues in its first two games, but that was expected as the team was favored by 31.5 points against SMU and 46.5 points versus Northwestern State. The Bears have outscored their opponents by a score of 115-6 and easily covered both lines while having six scoring plays of 40 yards or more. Against Northwestern State, an FCS team, they totaled an immense 720 total yards while converting 13-of-16 third downs, but surprisingly turned the ball over twice.

Buffalo came away victorious in its first game, winning 38-28, but failed to cover the large 27-point spread as a home favorite against Duquesne. The Bulls followed that up with a 47-39 loss as three-point underdogs against Army in which they were down by 30 points early in the fourth quarter before cutting it down over the final 10 minutes. Turnovers did them in as they outgained the Black Knights 549 to 466, but threw three picks as they attempted to make a comeback.

These programs squared off last year in Waco, TX with Baylor dominating as 28.5-point favorites, winning by a score of 70-13 while they outgained the Bulls 781 to 363 and went turnover free. Before that, the Bears had won both SU and ATS in the matchup in both 2007 and 2010, outscoring Buffalo 68-27 over the two contests.

Trends show that Baylor is 23-10 ATS (70%) after gaining 525+ yards per game in its previous two contests since 1992, while the Bulls are 3-0 ATS after 2+ straight ATS defeats since the start of 2012.

The injury report should be watched for this game as starting QB Bryce Petty (back) and last year’s No. 1 receiver Antwan Goodley (leg) are listed as questionable for Baylor, while Buffalo has no significant injuries on its roster.

Over the first two games of this year, Baylor has averaged 647 YPG (4th in FBS) while throwing for the sixth-most yards (384 YPG) and getting 263 YPG on the ground. They have done most of this without the help of last year’s Big 12 Player of the Year, QB Bryce Petty (161 yards, 2 TD), who missed last week’s game with an injured back. They will not rush his return either since QB Seth Russell, who threw for 438 yards (11.7 YPA) and 5 TD (0 INT) in their most recent contest, has done so well.

The quarterback position in this offense is expected to run, and has already rushed the ball for a touchdown twice this year after Petty and Russell combined for 17 scores on the ground in 2013. The backfield has been comprised of three players so far with HBs Johnny Jefferson (164 yards, 1 TD), Shock Linwood (122 yards, 2 TD) and Silas Nicata (124 yards, 3 TD) all earning 20+ carries over two blowout victories. Linwood is the expected feature back after splitting carries with Lache Seastrunk in 2013 and totaling 881 yards (6.9 YPC) with eight touchdowns.

Meanwhile, freshman WR KD Cannon was explosive against Northwestern State, going for 223 yards (37.2 avg) and already has tallied four touchdowns on the young season. WRs Davion Hall (11 rec, 164 yards, 1 TD) and Jay Lee (10 rec, 158 yards, 2 TD) have been the other workhorses in the passing game thus far with top WR Antwan Goodley missing the first two games.

The Bears have not played any offenses of note so far, so the fact that they have allowed a meager 134 YPG (2nd in FBS) and 3.0 PPG (3rd in FBS) is no real surprise. Buffalo should give them a little more of a test, but LB Bryce Hager (14 tackles) hopes he can lead the team to another impressive performance.

The Buffalo offense has actually played quite well in the early going and ranks in the top-30 in total yards (510.5 YPG) while slinging the ball around for an impressive 347 YPG (16th in FBS). They have scored 38.5 PPG and have shown they can be explosive as they posted 36 points against Army in the second half of their week two loss. The Bulls have a strong offensive line with all five of their starters returning from 2013 and QB Joe Licata (694 yards, 8 TD, 4 INT) has already put forth two performances of 295+ yards.

In the team’s bid to make a comeback against Army, the junior QB was 34-for-49 (69%) with 396 yards (8.1 YPA) and 5 TD while also trying to force the ball, leading to three interceptions. HB Anthone Campbell has carried the workload in the backfield with 194 yards on 46 carries (4.2 YPC) while scoring two touchdowns. He should receive a lot of help from hybrid HB/WR Devin Campbell who has rushed for 78 yards (6.5 YPC) and caught the ball eight times for 67 yards (8.4 avg) with 2 TD.

The Bulls lost nearly all of their WR production from last year but seem to be rebounding quite will as five different players have six or more receptions. The leaders to come out of this group are WRs Ron Willoughby (187 yards, 2 TD) and Marcus McGill (163 yards, 2 TD) who have combined for 25 catches in the first two contests.

The defense has not looked on par over the first two games, and seems to be feeling the loss of LB Khalil Mack as they have allowed 37.5 PPG with 419.5 YPG to their opponents. DB Adam Redden (16 tackles, 2 sacks) and LB Lee Skinner (15 tackles) have a tough task ahead of them with Baylor and hope they can capture some for their defensive prowess from last year when they allowed just 13.2 PPG to opponents at home.

 

[CNOTES]

Friday's Tip Sheet

September 10, 2014


**Toledo at Cincinnati**

-- As of Wednesday morning, most betting shops had Cincinnati (0-0 straight up, 0-0 against the spread) installed as an 11-point home favorite with a total of 59.5. Bettors can back the Rockets on the money line for a +330 return (risk $100 to win $330).

-- Tommy Tuberville's team went 9-4 both SU and ATS in his first season at the helm after replacing Butch Jones. The Bearcats won nine of their first 11 games, but they lost a 31-24 decision to Louisville as three-point home underdogs in overtime to close the regular season. Then at the Belk Bowl, Cincy got thumped 39-17 by North Carolina as a 2.5-point 'dog.

-- Cincy returns seven starters on offense and six on defense. QB Brendon Kay is gone and Notre Dame transfer Gunner Kiel has been named the starter for the opener. Kiel, who was an original oral commitment to LSU before changing his mind on Signing Day, was considered the nation's No. 1 prep signal caller in the 2012 class. Things didn't work out in South Bend and we'll see how it goes at Cincy. If Kiel is ineffective, Tuberville has another experienced option in Munchie Legaux, who has 13 career starts and offers a scrambling dynamic. Legaux suffered a season-ending knee injury in 2013 but has recovered and is ready to go Friday if needed.

-- Cincy posted a 3-2 spread record in five games as a home favorite last season. In six games as a double-digit 'chalk' whether at home or on the road, the Bearcats went 3-3 ATS.

-- Cincy returns its top three rushers and one of the AAC's top wide receivers in Shaq Washington, who had 999 all-purpose yards in 2013. Washington had 78 receptions for 783 yards. The Bearcats have one of the league's best pass rushers in junior DE Silverberry Mouhon, who was a second-team All-AAC selection after recording 9.5 sacks and seven QB hurries.

-- Toledo (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) won its opener by a 54-20 count over New Hampshire as an 11-point home favorite. QB Phillip Ely, a transfer from Alabama, completed 24-of-34 passes for 337 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. Kareem Hunt rushed for 136 yards and two scores on 20 carries.

-- Missouri came to The Glass Bowl last week and the oddsmakers gave Toledo plenty of respect, listing it as just a 3.5-point home underdog. This was a bad line, however, and I jumped all over it. Missouri raced out to an early lead and coasted to a 49-24 victory and easy spread cover. The Rockets defense gave up 502 yards of total offense and allowed Maty Mauk to throw five TD passes. On the bright side, Hunt was productive once again, rushing for 148 yards and three TDs on just 15 carries.

-- The biggest downer coming out of the loss to Missouri was the season-ending injury to Ely, who tore his ACL. The starting job now goes to true sophomore Logan Woodside, who started one game as a freshman when he completed 21-of-41 passes for 240 yards and one TD without an interception. In the second half against the Tigers, Woodside connected on 6-of-10 throws for 52 yards. With Woodside at QB, look for a heavy dose of Hunt, who is averaging 8.1 yards per carry.

-- Toledo has thrived as a road underdog on Matt Campbell's watch, going 7-1 ATS. Whether at home or away or on a neutral field, the Rockets are 4-1 ATS in five games as double-digit 'dogs during Campbell's tenure.

-- The 'over' has hit in both of Toledo's games with scoring outputs of 74 and 73 combined points.

-- These schools squared off at The Glass Bowl two seasons ago, with Toledo capturing a 29-23 win as a six-point home underdog. The Rockets got the victory thanks to a long pick-six and a Bernard Reedy kickoff return for a TD.

-- Cincy's Nipper Stadium is undergoing expansion and renovation this year, so the Bearcats' home games will be played at the home of the Bengals, Paul Brown Stadium.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.

**Baylor at Buffalo**

-- As of Wednesday morning, most spots had Baylor (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) installed as a 34-point favorite with a total of 67.5. -- After missing a chance to pad his stats in an easy Week 2 win, Baylor senior QB Bryce Petty has been upgraded to 'probable' and will start against the Bulls. In a 45-0 season-opening home win over SMU, Petty sustained a pair of cracked bones in his lower back. He only played in the first half, connecting on a pair of TD passes and running for another score.

-- Without Petty, Art Briles' squad cruised to a 70-6 home win over Northwestern State as a 47-point home favorite. Baylor raced out to a 49-3 advantage by halftime. Seth Russell was outstanding in Petty's place, throwing for 438 yards and five TDs without an interception. He also had a rushing score. True freshman WR K.D. Cannon, the prize of the program's 2014 recruiting haul, exploded with six receptions for 223 yards and three TDs. Johnny Jefferson rushed for a team-high 107 yards and one TD, while Silas Nacita had 104 rushing yards and a pair of TDs.

-- In the win over the Demons, Baylor played without Petty, WR Antwan Goodley, WR Levi Norwood, WR Corey Coleman and WR Clay Fuller. Along with Petty, Coleman has been upgraded to 'probable' for Friday night. However, Goodley (leg) remains 'doubtful,' while Norwood and Fuller are 'out.'

-- During Briles's seven-year tenure, Baylor is 3-6 ATS in nine games as a road favorite. The Bears are 1-6 ATS in its last seven such spots going back to 2011.

-- Buffalo (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) failed to cover the spread in a 38-28 Week 1 victory over Duquesne as a 28.5-point home favorite. Joe Licata completed 25-of-36 passes for 298 yards and three TDs, while Anthone Taylor ran for 115 yards and two TDs. Ron Willoughby had 10 receptions for 132 yards and two TDs.

-- Buffalo lost a 47-39 decision at Army as a three-point underdog last weekend. The Bulls trailed 28-3 midway through the third quarter, but Licata nearly brought them all the way back. The junior signal caller was intercepted three times, which obviously helped create the deficit. However, Licata ended up throwing for 401 yards and five TDs, pulling his team to within eight points with 2:42 remaining on a TD pass and another throw into the end zone to convert a two-point conversion. Marcus McGill had seven catches for 128 yards and two TDs.

-- Buffalo owns a 5-6 spread record in 11 games as a home underdog during Jeff Quinn's tenure.

-- When these teams met in Waco last year, Baylor rolled to a 70-13 win as a 27.5-point road 'chalk.' The Bears had 781 yards of total offense with Petty passing for 338 yards and a pair of TDs without an interception.

-- ESPN will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

 

[CNOTES]

Battle of the Cougars

September 10, 2014


Houston Cougars (1-1) at BYU Cougars (2-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: BYU -18.5, Total: 58

After a beating of Texas this past weekend, the BYU Cougars host the Houston Cougars as they attempt to stay undefeated.

Houston did not look good in the first game of the season, falling by a score of 27-7 against the UTSA Roadrunners, but bounced back in an easy matchup facing Grambling State, prevailing by a score of 47-0 in against a Tigers team that was 1-11 last season. Not too much should be taken from the win, since Grambling state hurt themselves with 15 penalties for 147 yards while also turning the ball over six times as the Cougars converted only 4-of-14 on third downs.

BYU has looked great in its first two games, first handling Connecticut with a 35-10 win followed by a huge 41-7 defeat of Texas in Austin as one-point underdogs. It was their defense that was the hero here, grabbing four takeaways and holding a usually potent Longhorns offense to a woeful 258 total yards. The rushing attack for the Cougars was unstoppable with 248 yards on the ground; giving them two consecutive games over 200 rushing yards.

Last year these programs met and both offenses were clicking in a 47-46 barnburner, which BYU won, but failed to cover as a 10-point favorite. Both teams threw for more than 400 yards with the big difference coming from the Brigham Young runners as they outpaced Houston on the ground 264 to 48.

Bettors should take into consideration that BYU is a mere 7-26 ATS (21%) after a two-game road trip since 1992 while Houston is 1-9 ATS after allowing six points or less in their previous game in the same timeframe. There are no significant injuries going into this contest for either team.

Houston’s usually potent offense currently ranks 80th in rushing (218 YPG) and 102nd in passing (124.5 YPG), and has not faced a tough team such as BYU. Leading their offense is QB John O’Korn who was solid last season (3,117 yards, 28 TD, 10 INT) and has completed 35-of-68 passes (52%) for 404 yards (5.9 YPA) while throwing just a single touchdown and four picks this year. It was his play that took the team down against UTSA as he threw 4 INT and completed a mere 21-of-43 attempts.

It does get a little more promising with the running game, as HB Kenneth Farrow has rushed for 151 yards on 20 attempts (7.6 YPC) and a touchdown while last year’s top rusher, HB Ryan Jackson, has two touchdowns in 13 attempts (50 yards). The team likes to spread the ball out, and through the first couple of contests they already have three different players with seven or more receptions. Leading the way is WR Deontay Greenberry (206 yards) while WR Greg Ward Jr. (40 yards) has the sole receiving touchdown.

It is hard to size up the Cougars defense at this point of the season with their shutout victory coming against such a weak team, but they have allowed their opponents to gain 263 yards per game so far. Both LB Derrick Mathews (16 tackles, 1 sack) and DB Trevon Stewart (10 tackles) hope they can continue to put forth solid performances as this team looks to win their second straight contest.

BYU has been phenomenal in the early going while ranking in the top-65 at both passing (244.5 YPG) and rushing (226.5 YPG) with 38.0 PPG (42nd in FBS). QB Taysom Hill (489 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT) has improved through the air this year after throwing 14 interceptions in 2013, but threw for just 181 yards and 1 INT in the win over Texas.

The real threat comes from Hill’s legs, which have propelled him to 194 yards (5.4 YPC) and five touchdowns after leading the team with 1,344 rushing yards (5.5 YPC, 10 TD) in 2013. Helping him in the backfield will be HB Jamaal Williams who missed the first game of the year, but went for 89 yards (4.7 YPC) against the Longhorns. These two players combined for 2,577 yards on the ground last year and should be the main focal point for any opposing defense. With last year’s top receiver, Cody Hoffman, out of the picture, the Cougars are targeting plenty of players, and four wideouts have caught at least five passes with WR Jordan Leslie (107 yards) leading the way.

As mentioned previously, the defense for BYU is the main reason for the team's success, having allowing only 8.5 PPG and 306.5 YPG to their opponents over the first two weeks. LB Bronson Kaufusi had two sacks in the first game of the year and hopes to be an important piece of this defense moving forward.

 

[CNOTES]

Houston at BYU

September 10, 2014


The third week of the College football season starts Thursday night with a matchup between Houston and BYU. While the season in Houston started poorly with an upset loss, BYU has impressively moved to 2-0 with back-to-back road wins, including last week’s huge win at Texas. Here is a look at the teams and this week’s ESPN matchup between two sets of Cougars.

Match-up: Houston Cougars at BYU Cougars
Venue: LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah
Date: Thursday, September 11, 2014
Time/TV: 9:00 PM ET – ESPN
Line: BYU -17.5, Over/Under 57.5
Last Meeting: 2013, BYU (-10) 47-46 at Houston

Houston is coming off of an easy home win vs. FCS Grambling last week. The Cougars were led by RB Kenneth Farrow, who rushed for 130 of Houston's 275 rush yards (6.9 YPC) in a 47-0 win. It was a nice comeback victory after a disappointing home loss to UT-San Antonio to open the season - a game in which the Cougars totaled -26 rush yards. QB Josh O'Korn has gotten off to a bit of a disappointing start. He is completing just 51.5% of his throws with just one touchdown and four interceptions. This week, Houston hits the road for the first time this season to take on BYU.

This is a tough spot for BYU. The Cougars are off of a 41-7 win at Texas. It was a hard-fought game for one half as BYU led just 6-0 at the midpoint before opening the floodgates with a 28-point third quarter. Do-everything QB Taysom Hill led the way with three rushing touchdowns. Through two games, Hill is completing 73% of his passes and averaging 244.5 pass YPG; but the real threat he presents is with his feet as he already has 196 rushing yards and five touchdowns. BYU will try to avoid a letdown performance here, something the Cougars couldn't avoid last year. After 2013's blowout win over Texas, the Cougars returned home and laid an egg against Utah - losing by seven points as a six-point favorite.

Defensively both of these teams have been very solid through two weeks. BYU is allowing just 76.5 rushing yards per game on 2.3 yards per carry. Opposing QB's are completing just 57% against BYU with one touchdown and two interceptions. Houston's 'D' (which returned nine starters from 2013), ranks 24th against the pass, 35th against the run, and 11th in total yards allowed - albeit stats that may be skewed in their favor considering their two opponents were UT-San Antonio and FCS Grambling.

These two met for the first time ever in 2013 in one of the more entertaining games of the season. The game featured two ties, eight lead changes, and neither team led by more than 10 points. Taysom Hill threw a touchdown with 1:08 left to give BYU the lead. The defense held on Houston's final drive and BYU won, 47-46. BYU tallied 681 yards of total offense, including 264 rushing yards on 71 total carries. Houston's O'Korn completed 29-of-45 passes for 363 yards with three touchdowns but also three interceptions. Houston was able to cover as the double-digit underdog (+10).

BYU is 10-3 S/U & ATS in its last 13 home openers, including back-to-back ATS wins by an average of 21.5 points. BYU is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 games as a home favorite of 17 points or more. Houston is 5-18 S/U & 8-14 ATS in its last 23 road openers, but is 3-2 S/U & ATS in the last five years. Houston is 8-4 ATS in the last 12 as a double-digit underdog, but that record worsens to just 5-10 ATS as a road underdog of 17 points or more dating back to 1997.

 

[CNOTES]

Big Ten Report - Week 3

September 10, 2014


GAME OF THE WEEK

Penn State (-3.5) at Rutgers - 8:00 p.m. ET
PSU & Rutgers open up B1G conference play on Saturday in Rutgers. For the Scarlet Knights, it's their first conference game as a member of the conference. Rutgers is 2-0 heading into this week with wins over Washington State and FCS Howard. The Knights are led by QB Nova (31-of-46 for 563 yards, 6 TD, 1 INT) and RB James (216 rush yards on 5.1 YPC with 4 TD). Nova, James, and the rest of this offense will have their first difficult test against PSU's defense; a unit that ranks 4th against the run, 15th in overall defense, and 25th in scoring defense. Rutgers' defensive numbers aren't very good at this point in the season after allowing 538 yards to Washington State and 427 to FCS Howard. The Knights will have to clean things up on defense as PSU's QB Hackenberg is on his way to a breakout campaign. The sophomore already has 773 pass yards (65.1%) with 4 TD & 4 INT. The Nittany Lions were able to avoid a letdown performance in a 21-3 win over Akron after coming home from a week one game in Dublin. Motivation won't be lacking for either side as we expect Rutgers to be fired up for their first home conference game in a primetime setting. On the other side, PSU got some good news this week that the NCAA released the ban on postseason play - meaning the Nittany Lions will be eligible for a bowl this year. Not that the Nittany Lions weren't playing with high-intensity before, but that news certainly won't hurt the motivation going forward. Penn State is 15-8 SU in the last 23 Big Ten road games, but just 1-4 SU & ATS in the last 5. PSU is 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven games against Rutgers, but the last meeting was in 1995. Rutgers is just 2-7 ATS in the last nine home games.

BEST OF THE REST

Iowa (-13.5) vs. Iowa State - 3:30 p.m. ET
Is it time to be concerned about performance of the Hawkeyes? They knew they were going to get a tough battle from FCS Northern Iowa in week one, but still only escaped with an eight-point win. Then last week they barely squeaked by at home against Ball State. QB Rudock threw two TD in the final 2:52 to give Iowa the 17-13 win. Arguably the most concerning aspect of Iowa's season so far is the inability to effectively run the ball. The Hawks rank 97th in rushing with just 132 YPG. Things won't get any easier as star LT, and likely top draft pick, Brandon Scherff is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Jake Rudock has posted solid numbers (572 yards on 68.8% with 4 TD and 0 INT), but Iowa needs to run it better. Solid defense and adequate QB play can take this team only so far. As ordinary as Iowa has been so far, they're in a much better position than rival Iowa State. ISU is already 0-2 after losses to FCS North Dakota State and conference rival Kansas State. The offense has been abysmal. QB Richardson has just 1 TD and 3 INT while top RB Wimberly has just 75 yards on 23 carries. They rank near the bottom of every major offensive statistical category. The defensive unit hasn't been much better as the Cyclones rank 121st against the rush, 68th against the pass, 110th in total yards allowed, and 100th in PPG allowed. This rivalry is split 7-7 since 2000 and Iowa State is 10-4 ATS over that span. Nine of those 14 matchups have been decided by 10 points or less, including three straight meetings by a total of just 12 points. Iowa is 0-2 ATS this season, failing to cover as a double-digit favorite in both of its games. ISU is 0-2 SU, but covered as a double-digit underdog against a solid Kansas State team last week.

Minnesota (+14) at TCU - 4:00 p.m. ET
Minnesota will take a big step up in competition this week as they visit TCU after home dates with FCS Eastern Illinois and Middle Tennessee State. Minnesota QB Mitch Leidner sprained his MCL against MTSU last week and his status remains uncertain. Leidner's strength is his ability to run from the QB position; if this sprain has a negative effect on his rushing ability, expect the Gophers to go with backup QB Chris Streveler. Streveler, the redshirt freshman, has thrown one pass in his career. Minnesota's strength is in the rushing attack. David Cobb rushed for 220 yards in last week's win over MTSU and the Gophers now rank 30th in rush YPG through two weeks. Expect TCU to stack the box this weekend in an attempt to make the Gophers beat them through the air. TCU had last week off after a blowout win over FCS Samford in week one. The Horned Frogs wracked up a +412 yard advantage and +24 first downs in the 48-14 blowout win. TCU returned 16 starters from last year's squad and this defense has the potential to be really, really good. Offensively QB Boykin leads the way along with a stable of solid running backs and experienced receivers. They'll give Minnesota's defense - which has looked vulnerable - their toughest test of the season to date. Dating back to 2007, the Gophers are 22-10 ATS as an underdog of 10-points or more - includes a 13-7 ATS record on the road. Minnesota is 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in the last 16 road openers. TCU is 3-8 ATS in the last 11 home games and just 0-3 ATS since 2004 against Big Ten squads.

Maryland (-3) vs. West Virginia - 12:00 p.m. ET
Maryland may have switched conferences, but their rivalry with West Virginia still stands strong. The Terps ended a seven-game losing streak to the Mountaineers with last year's 37-0 shutout victory. The 37-point margin of victory was the largest in this series since 1951! Maryland's 2013 season unraveled after that win, but they'll look to repeat the formula with another win over West Virginia on Saturday. The Terps had a closer-than-expected matchup with South Florida last week. They used a blocked punt return for TD in the 4th quarter to propel them to a seven-point victory - failing to cover as the 11-point favorite. Maryland managed just 116 rush yards on 2.9 YPC and they turned the ball over six times; but credit to the defense for holding USF's offense down the stretch and getting the win on the road. QB C.J. Brown has had a rough-go of it so far in 2014. He's completing just 53.8% with 3 TD and 2 INT despite having one of the top WR corps to throw to. Brown will have to clean up his game as the competition level goes up in this rivalry matchup with WVU. West Virginia wasn't supposed to stick with Alabama in week one, but the Mountaineers made a ball-game of it, never trailing by more than 10 points and cutting the lead to seven points in the 4th quarter. There was no hangover in week two as WVU trounced FCS Towson 54-0. QB Clint Trickett leads the way in this explosive offense. Trickett has 713 pass yards on 75.3% completions with 3 TD and 0 INT so far. He spreads the wealth nicely as three receivers already have 10 catches. Trickett didn't play in last year's blowout loss to Maryland, but this offense will be motivated to make some noise after the Terps held them scoreless. The Terps are just 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings, going 0-3 SU & ATS at home over that span (-11.6 PPG). Maryland is 9-22 ATS in the last 29 as a home favorite. West Virginia is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 as a road underdog.

Illinois (+14.5) at Washington - 4:00 p.m. ET
Credit the Illini for coming from behind yet again to get a win; but needing to come-from-behind in two straight weeks at home against FCS Youngstown State and Western Kentucky is a bit concerning. Wes Lunt continues to put up huge numbers and appears to be a strong fit for Bill Cubit's offense. Lunt now has 741 yards (67%) with 7 TD and just 1 INT. Lunt has had to be "the man" in the offense since the rushing attack isn't making a huge impact. RB's Ferguson & Young have combined to rush for 160 yards and 2 TD on 48 carries - a measly 3.3 YPC. Another concern has to be the performance of the defense. They allowed 400 yards to WKU last week and now rank 73rd in yards allowed and 72nd in points allowed through two weeks. This week Illinois goes on the road for the first time in 2014 to take on a fellow team that has had two uninspiring performances. Washington barely escaped with a win in a trip to Hawaii in week one and had to battle FCS Eastern Washington to win a shootout, 59-52. Eastern Washington tallied an astonishing 573 yards and 35 first downs against the Huskies and their QB Adams threw 7 TD! If an FCS QB can do that to Washington, they have to be extremely concerned about what Illinois' Lunt will do this week. Washington ranks near the bottom of every major defensive category so far. That will need to be cleaned up as UW's offense isn't well-equipped to win shootouts. The Huskies have run the ball with success (265 YPG with eight rush TD) but QB's Miles & Lindquist have combined to comlete just 24-of-50 passes for 342 yards and 2 TD. Illinois has revenge on its mind after a 10-point loss to the Huskies last September. The 10-point margin actually should have been larger as Washington was +288 yards and +13 first downs - but -2 in TO's, allowing Illinois to keep it rather close. The Illini have lost 11 of their last 12 road/neutral openers with the average loss by 17 PPG. Washington is just 8-15 ATS in its last 23 as a double-digit favorite while Illinois is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 as a double-digit underdog.

Michigan (-31) vs. Miami (OH) - 3:30 p.m. ET
The good news for Michigan is that it can't get much worse than what happened last week. The Wolverines were shutout for the first time since 1984 and it came at the hands of their bitter rival, Notre Dame, in the final scheduled game of the series. Michigan didn't get much going on offense, rushing for just 100 yards on 2.9 YPC and tossing for 189. They turned the ball over four times to Notre Dame's zero, and the defense was picked apart by ND's QB Golson. The only positive to take from that game was that Michigan's run defense held ND to just 54 rush yards on 1.7 YPC. The Wolverines will have to avoid a letdown after such a meaningful game last week, but that shouldn't be too difficult at home against Miami of Ohio, who has dropped 18 consecutive games. Miami showed some promise in a week one matchup against a good Marshall team. The Hawks were down by eight points at the end of the 3rd quarter before losing by 15 (covered as the 24-point underdog). Things didn't look nearly as promising in last week's home loss to FCS Eastern Kentucky. Miami turned the ball over six times and managed just 10 points against the FCS foe. QB Andrew Hendrix, the graduate transfer from ND, has a strong arm and already has 677 pass yards through two weeks. Michigan is 5-0 SU vs. Miami (last game was in 2008) and 33-1 SU vs. the MAC conference. Michigan is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite of 25 points or more. The Wolves are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 game at The Big House.

Ohio State (-32) vs. Kent State - 12:00 p.m. ET
Ohio State, like Michigan, will try to bounce back from a disheartening loss. The Buckeyes lost a regular season game for the first time under head coach Urban Meyer; and their first home loss since 2011. Braxton Millers absence under center was truly felt last week as redshirt freshman JT Barrett really struggled against Virginia Tech. VA Tech stacked the box and shut down OSU's rushing attack (108 yards on 2.7 YPC) and Barrett couldn't take advantage. Barrett completed just 9-of-29 passes with 1 TD and 3 INT and was inefficient on third down (4-of-16 conversions). The offensive line that replaced four starters from 2013 appeared overmatched by the Hokies and the defense wasn't pretty either. The Buckeyes will have a chance to get right this week against Kent State. Things are looking bleak for Kent State. The Golden Flashes have dropped both games so far this season, losing to Ohio and South Alabama. (0-2 ATS). QB Reardon has 4 TD and just 1 INT, but he has been inefficient (58%) and mild (5.8 yards per attempt). KSU is averaging just 47.5 rush yards per game and they've scored just 4 TD through two games. The Golden Flashes are 2-23-1 in the last 26 road openers including six straight losses by an average of 28 PPG. OSU has won both meetings with Kent State since 2000, winning by 34 points in 2002 and 45 points in 2007. Ohio State is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 games as a favorite of 25 points or more.

Nebraska (-10) at Fresno State - 10:30 p.m. ET
The Huskers avoided a near-disaster against FCS McNeese State last week. With the game tied at 24 with just seconds remaining, the Huskers and Cowboys appeared to be headed for overtime. Star RB Ameer Abdullah took a pass 58 yards for a touchdown with 20 seconds left on the clock, giving Nebraska the seven-point win. The Huskers we saw in week one were vastly superior to the version we saw against FCS McNeese State last week. Which version will get on the plane to Fresno State? QB Armstrong was electric on the ground last week (131 yards on 11 carries) but was a bit inefficient through the air (16-of-31 with 2 TD and 1 INT). Abdullah couldn't get going on the ground as he tallied just 54 rush yards on 17 carries. Defensively the Huskers were a bit too lenient against their FCS foe, allowing 338 yards and 24 points while allowing the Cowboys to hold the ball for +9 minutes TOP. Fresno State, now 0-2, is desperate for a win and playing at home for the first time - Nebraska has to show up ready for a fight. FSU has looked outmatched in back-to-back road losses to Pac-12 members, USC (L 13-52) & Utah (L 27-59). The Bulldogs lost a lot of star power from 2013's team and nothing has gone right so far in 2014. QB's Connette and Burrell have been inefficient (55%) while combining to throw 3 TD and 4 INT. The defense has been absolutely atrocious. FSU is allowing 613.5 YPG (126th) and 55.5 PPG (127th) through two games. The Bulldogs are hoping that a return home, where they are 13-0 the past two years, gets them back on the right track. The only prior meeting between these two was in 2011. Fresno visited Nebraska as a 28-point underdog. They trailed 26-28 late before two late touchdowns put the game away for the Huskers (FSU cover). Nebraska is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 games as a road favorite of 10 points or more.

Purdue (+28.5) at Notre Dame - 7:30 p.m. ET
What a difference a week makes. A week after Purdue started the season on a strong note, beating Western Michigan by nine and notching 43 points in the process, Purdue came crashing back down with a 17-point blowout loss at home to Central Michigan. CMU moved the ball with relative ease against Purdue, tallying 333 yards and 19 first downs despite playing conservative most of the 2nd half. Purdue QB Etling did not have a good day, starting with an INT that CMU returned for a touchdown just five minutes into the game. Etling was replaced by sophomore Austin Appelby, who didn't exactly fare well himself. Coaches have opened up the competition and a starter for this week has not been named. Things will get tougher for the Boilermakers as they travel to South Bend this Saturday. They'll hope to catch Notre Dame in a letdown spot after the Irish put a beat-down on rival Michigan last weekend. ND QB Golson completed 23-of-34 passes for 226 yards with 3 TD and no INT against Michigan while ND's defense dominated, forcing three turnovers and becoming the first team to shutout the Wolverines since 1984. Notre Dame has given up a total of 17 points through two weeks of play - bad news for a Purdue team that has huge questions on offense. Notre Dame has won 23 of the past 28 games in this series, including six straight. The Boilers have covered the past two seasons, however, losing by just three points in 2012 (+14) and seven points in 2013 (+18). Notre Dame is just 4-12 ATS in the last 16 as a favorite of 27 points or more. Purdue is just 7-19 SU and 8-16-1 ATS in its last 26 road openers. The Boilers are also just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 as an underdog of 20 points or more.

Indiana (+6) at Bowling Green - 12:00 p.m. ET
The Hoosiers were off last week after dismantling FCS Indiana State in week one. Indiana has one of the more underrated offensive line units in the nation and they used it to perfection against FCS Indiana State. The Hoosiers ran the ball 69 times for 455 yards (6.6 YPC) and four scores. RB's Coleman and Roberts combined for 376 of those rush yards and QB Sudfeld only had to attempt 18 passes. If Indiana has successfully instilled a rushing presence into its offensive arsenal - they could be a serious sleeper in the Big Ten. The defense also had a promising effort, albeit against an FCS program, as it allowed just 170 total yards and 10 first downs. This week they travel to Bowling Green for their first road trip of the season. Bowling Green had a rough start to the season. The Falcons were blown out by Western Kentucky in week one and lost starting QB Matt Johnson to a season-ending hip injury in the process. They regrouped for a bounce back 48-7 win over FCS VMI last week. VMI was able to tally 418 yards and 24 first downs while controlling the ball for nearly 40 minutes. Bowling Green had three special teams touchdowns and forced three VMI turnovers. BG QB Knapke had a good starting debut (22-of-31 for 237 yards) while the rushing attack churned out 260 rush yards on 7.0 YPC. Bowling Green has dropped three straight games against Big Ten squads (since 2008), losing by an average of 33.6 PPG. Indiana is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 as a road underdog.

Michigan State - Bye Week
For the better part of two quarters, Michigan State looked like the superior team to Oregon, leading 27-18 midway through the 3rd quarter. The wheels came off after that as Oregon scored the final 28 points of the game in the 46-27 win. MSU QB Cook completed just 29-of-47 passes and had 2 costly INT's while the rushing attack never really got going (123 yards on 3.4 YPC). The defense was good for a while, but Oregon's up-tempo pace clearly exhausted the Spartans. MSU allowed Oregon's Heisman candidate QB Mariota to throw for 318 yards and 3 scores while the Ducks added 173 rush yards. The 46 points allowed by MSU was the most under Dantonio since allowing 49 to #7 Penn State in 2008. Sparty is off this week before hosting Eastern Michigan next Saturday.

Wisconsin - Bye Week
It wasn't easy to watch as the Badgers struggled to just a 9-3 halftime lead against FCS Western Illinois, but credit the Badgers for coming out hot in the 2nd half and racing to a 37-3 victory. Western Illinois stacked the box against the Badgers, limiting star RB Gordon to just 38 yards on 17 carries. QB McEvoy, who looked helpless in the week one loss to LSU, finally showed why he won the starting job. McEvoy completed 23-of-28 passes, including 17 straight at one point - for 283 yards with 3 TD and 1 INT. It was a promising sight as McEvoy shined and the defense held Western Illinois to just 162 total yards and 11 first downs. The Badgers are off this week before hosting Bowling Green.

Northwestern - Bye Week
This seems like a broken record. Northwestern continues to lose in heartbreaking fashion. Five of their seven losses in 2013 were by 10 points or fewer and they've already dropped two such games this season. Last week Northern Illinois came into Evanston and handed Northwestern a 23-15 loss. NIU rushed for 221 yards on 4.0 YPC while QB Hare tossed 2 TD on just 10 attempts. Northwestern was stalled on offense as they totaled just 72 rush yards on 37 carries (1.9 YPC). To make matters worse, QB Siemian left in the 4th quarter with a leg injury. FCS Western Illinois visits Evanston next Saturday.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Thursday, September 11


Chance of thunderstorms for Thursday night game

According to Weather Underground, forecasts are calling for a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms in Denton, TX as the North Texas Mean Green host the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Thursday evening.

Temperatures look to be in the mid-70s for kickoff and wind will from the north at six mph.

The Mean Green are currently 3.5-point home faves and the total opened at 48.


Syracuse and Central Michigan could see rainstorm

The Syracuse Orange and Central Michigan Chippewas will be playing in less than ideal conditions Saturday. At kickoff there is a 60 percent chance of rain and there will be winds gusting from seven to nine miles per hour.

Central Michigan are 7-point home dogs Saturday.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Thursday's games
Third straight road game for Louisiana Tech, which allowed 852 yards in splitting first two games; Tech is 9-4 vs spread in last 13 games as a road underdog, 2-0 this year- they lost 28-13 (+3) at home to North Texas LY, getting outrushed 165-37. North Texas hammered SMU 43-6 last week after getting waxed at Texas; Mean Green covered eight of ten as a home favorite under McCarney. UNT has only nine starters back from LY- both teams have new QBs this season.

BYU (-10) won 47-46 at Houston LY, ringing up 41 first downs while outgaining Coogs 681-483. BYU scored 76 points in opening road wins at Cincy/Texas- they have 453 rushing yards in two games. Houston got upset at home by UTSA in opener when they had six turnovers, then whacked a I-AA team last week; they're 13-7 as road dogs since '05, 4-1 under Levine. BYU is 14-8 as home favorites last four years; they have junior QB with 17 starts. Houston's soph QB has 13 starts.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Thursday, September 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Houston at BYU
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Houston Cougars at BYU Cougars (-18.5, 58.5)

Houston doesn't have a lot of time to prepare for its trip to Brigham Young on Thursday, so coach Tony Levine is going to refer back to last year's hard-fought 47-46 loss to BYU. "It'll be a physical game," Levine said Saturday. "It certainly was last year and (BYU) is a physical program. They are always one of the top defenses in the nation. It is about us and how we feel we can play. We have got to do a great job with turnovers and turnover margin and we've got to fly around and tackle on defense and get those guys on the ground." Houston felt pretty good Saturday after a 47-0 beating of Grambling State, forcing six turnovers and scoring a defensive touchdown.

Houston will try to keep BYU's defense - which has been impressive in two lopsided victories - off-balance by using different personnel in the backfield. John O'Korn showed improvements between the first and second week and the club has used receivers Greg Ward Jr. and Daniel Spencer at quarterback in special packages. BYU quarterback Taysom Hill has accounted for 685 total yards, five rushing touchdowns and three scoring passes on the way to back-to-back FBS Independent Offensive Player of the Week honors.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened BYU -18 and most are now offering -18.5. The total opened 57 and is now up to 58.5.

INJURY REPORT: BYU - WR Nick Kurtz (Indefinitely, foot).

WEATHER FORECAST: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with clear skies and wind blowing to the south endzone at 9 mph.

ABOUT HOUSTON (1-1): O'Korn has completed 52.2 percent of his passes for 404 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions while Ward Jr. (five carries for 22 yards and a score) and Spencer (two carries for minus-1 yard) have mostly been used on running plays. Kenneth Farrow leads the ground game with 151 yards after a career-high 130 against Grambling State. Houston is allowing 342.5 yards and has forced a turnover in 25 straight games - the third-longest active streak in the country.

ABOUT BRIGHAM YOUNG (2-0): BYU is allowing 8.5 points and just 76.5 yards rushing after road wins over Connecticut (35-10) and Texas (41-7). Hill has completed 73 percent of his passes and is averaging 5.4 yards per run while Jamaal Williams rushed for 89 yards against Texas. Linebacker Bronson Kaufusi, who had two sacks against UConn, left the Texas game with an ankle injury and his status is unknown.

TRENDS:

* BYU is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four home games.
* Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Over is 6-0 in Houston's last six Thursday games.
* Under is 4-0 in BYU's last four Thursday games.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 71 percent of wagers are backing BYU.

 

[MackDonald]

NCAAF

Thursday, September 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Houston at BYU
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Houston Cougars at BYU Cougars (-18.5, 58.5)

Houston doesn't have a lot of time to prepare for its trip to Brigham Young on Thursday, so coach Tony Levine is going to refer back to last year's hard-fought 47-46 loss to BYU. "It'll be a physical game," Levine said Saturday. "It certainly was last year and (BYU) is a physical program. They are always one of the top defenses in the nation. It is about us and how we feel we can play. We have got to do a great job with turnovers and turnover margin and we've got to fly around and tackle on defense and get those guys on the ground." Houston felt pretty good Saturday after a 47-0 beating of Grambling State, forcing six turnovers and scoring a defensive touchdown.

Houston will try to keep BYU's defense - which has been impressive in two lopsided victories - off-balance by using different personnel in the backfield. John O'Korn showed improvements between the first and second week and the club has used receivers Greg Ward Jr. and Daniel Spencer at quarterback in special packages. BYU quarterback Taysom Hill has accounted for 685 total yards, five rushing touchdowns and three scoring passes on the way to back-to-back FBS Independent Offensive Player of the Week honors.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened BYU -18 and most are now offering -18.5. The total opened 57 and is now up to 58.5.

INJURY REPORT: BYU - WR Nick Kurtz (Indefinitely, foot).

WEATHER FORECAST: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with clear skies and wind blowing to the south endzone at 9 mph.

ABOUT HOUSTON (1-1): O'Korn has completed 52.2 percent of his passes for 404 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions while Ward Jr. (five carries for 22 yards and a score) and Spencer (two carries for minus-1 yard) have mostly been used on running plays. Kenneth Farrow leads the ground game with 151 yards after a career-high 130 against Grambling State. Houston is allowing 342.5 yards and has forced a turnover in 25 straight games - the third-longest active streak in the country.

ABOUT BRIGHAM YOUNG (2-0): BYU is allowing 8.5 points and just 76.5 yards rushing after road wins over Connecticut (35-10) and Texas (41-7). Hill has completed 73 percent of his passes and is averaging 5.4 yards per run while Jamaal Williams rushed for 89 yards against Texas. Linebacker Bronson Kaufusi, who had two sacks against UConn, left the Texas game with an ankle injury and his status is unknown.

TRENDS:

* BYU is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four home games.
* Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Over is 6-0 in Houston's last six Thursday games.
* Under is 4-0 in BYU's last four Thursday games.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 71 percent of wagers are backing BYU.

Whew!!!!!! This is really great stuff "Mr C"....thanks for all your efforts and good luck this week.....

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Thursday, September 11


Houston-BYU to be playing in high winds

The all-Cougars clash between Houston and BYU could be getting a little windy. At kickoff there is expected to be wind gusts upwards of 12 miles per hour, with it slowly decreasing through the game.

BYU is currently 17.5-home faves over Houston Thursday.


Bulldogs/Mean Green to see winds, thundershowers

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs certainly did not take good weather with them to Apogee Stadium. Leading into the clash between the Bulldogs and the North Texas Mean Green there is a 20 percent chance of thundershowers, but by the fourth quarter the chances raise to 60 percent.

Winds could cause a problem as well gusting between six and 11 miles per hour.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Rated Games:

*****-------------------------------7 - 5

Double Plays--------------------------5 - 8

Triple Plays---------------------------3 - 6

LIGHTS OUT.....................................2 - 1

Overall Rated Plays

17 - 13......................................*****

9 - 13.....................................DOUBLE PLAY

7 - 9 ....................................TRIPLE PLAY

4 - 2 ....................................LIGHTS OUT


Thursday, September 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Louisiana Tech - 8:00 PM ET North Texas -3.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
North Texas - Over 48 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Houston - 9:00 PM ET Houston +17 500 *****
Brigham Young - Under 59.5 500 *****

 

[indiana]

C/note..........BOL with your action tonight............indy

 

[Travex]

Heavy movement on the total for the BYU game. Up to 61.5 at my book now.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday's Rated Games:

*****-------------------------------2 - 0

Double Plays--------------------------1 - 1

Triple Plays---------------------------0 - 0

LIGHTS OUT.....................................0 - 0

Overall Rated Plays

19 - 13......................................*****

10 - 14.....................................DOUBLE PLAY

7 - 9 ....................................TRIPLE PLAY

4 - 2 ....................................LIGHTS OUT

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Thursday, September 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Games of the Day: College football Doubleheader
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Toledo Rockets at Cincinnati Bearcats (-9.5, 58)

Cincinnati finally get its season going Friday night when it hosts in-state foe Toledo in a non-conference game. While the rest of the nation has been playing for a week or two, the Bearcats have been forced to grind through extra practice, a task that has been difficult for the coaching staff. "We've had to be very imaginative the last few weeks trying to keep our guys focused on what they are doing, trying to get better," coach Tommy Tuberville told reporters Tuesday.

Tuberville - in his first season with Cincinnati last year - guided the Bearcats to a third-place finish in their inaugural American Athletic Conference campaign and a berth in the Belk Bowl. Toledo has already played a pair of games, first topping New Hampshire before a rough first half led to a 49-24 loss at home to No. 22 Missouri last Saturday in a game that saw quarterback Phillip Ely suffering a season-ending ACL tear. Cincinnati leads the series 4-3 but the Rockets have won the last three meetings, including a 29-23 triumph in 2012.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU.

LINE HISTORY: Cincinnati opened as 11-point favorites, but have been bet down to -9.5. The total opened at 59.5 had has moved down a point to sit at 58.5.

INJURY REPORT: Toledo - QB Phillip Ely (out for season, knee), OL Nate Jeppesen (out indefinitely, leg). Cincinnati - QB Munchie Legaux (questionable Friday, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: There is an eight percent chance of rain with temperatures in the low 70s at gametime. There will also be a six mil per hour wind blowing towards the southwest endzone.

ABOUT TOLEDO (1-1, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U): Ely will be replaced by Logan Woodside, who took over against Missouri following the injury and was 6-for-10 for 52 yards. Woodside, a sophomore, saw sporadic action last season, going 21-for-41 for 240 yards and a touchdown. His inexperience should allow the Bearcats to give their attention to running back Kareem Hunt, who ran for 148 yards and three touchdowns last weekend and is averaging 8.1 yards per carry through his first two games.

ABOUT CINCINNATI (2013: 9-4, 6-7 ATS, 7-6 O/U): The Bearcats are also breaking in an inexperienced, albeit highly touted, quarterback in sophomore transfer Gunner Kiel, who was the nation's top quarterback prospect coming out of high school before redshirting at Notre Dame. Tuberville said that while Kiel is the No. 1 guy and has impressed in preseason practice, others could see action against Toledo under center. One of those options is senior Munchie Legaux, who is coming back from a knee injury that ended his 2013 campaign after two games.

TRENDS:

* Rockets are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
* Bearcats are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 non-conference games.
* Under is 8-1 in the Rockets last 9 road games.
* Over is 4-1 in the Bearcats last 5 home games.

CONSENSUS: Almost 60 percent of wagers are backing the Bearcats at -9.5.


Baylor Bears at Buffalo Bulls (+34.5, 69.5)

Quarterback Bryce Petty returns to the lineup when No. 7 Baylor and its high-flying offense travel to Buffalo on Friday. "He's healthy. He's in good shape,'' Bears coach Art Briles told reporters before Tuesday's practice about Petty, who missed last week's 70-6 victory over FCS member Northwestern State with a back injury. Briles, though, said it is unlikely that wide receivers Corey Coleman (hamstring) and Antwan Goodwin will play.

Baylor didn't seem to miss its Heisman Trophy-hopeful quarterback or its top four receivers last week as backup Seth Russell and a host of freshmen playmakers racked up 720 yards. The Baylor defense has been equally dominant, allowing a total of six points and 269 yards to Northwestern State and Southern Methodist. The Bulls scored in bunches - getting five second-half touchdown passes from Joe Licata - as a late rally fell short in a 47-39 loss to Army.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with Baylor as huge 34-point favorites and it now sits at Bears -34.5. The total has been bet up two points after opening at 67.5 and now sits at 69.5.

INJURY REPORT: Baylor - QB Bryce Petty (probable Friday, spine), WR Antwan Goodley (doubtful Friday, leg), WR Corey Coleman (doubtful Friday, hamstring), RB Devin Chafin (out Friday, ankle). Buffalo - DB Marqus Baker (doubtful Friday, illness).

WEATHER REPORT: It will be partly cloudy with temperatures in the mid 50s and an eight percent chance of rain. There will also be a five mile per hour wind blowing the southwest corner of the south endzone.

ABOUT BAYLOR (2-0, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Freshman speedster KD Cannon is sixth nationally with 141 receiving yards per game and has four touchdowns after scoring on 50-, 81- and 42-yard plays last week. Freshman Davion Hall has 11 catches for 164 yards and a touchdown this season and freshman Johnny Jefferson is one of three Bears - joining Shock Linwood and Silas Nacita - with more than 120 rushing yards through two games. The Baylor defense, which has not allowed a touchdown, is ranked third nationally in scoring (three points allowed per game), first in rushing defense (27 yards per game), second in total defense (134.5 yards) and tied for first with six sacks per game.

ABOUT BUFFALO (1-1, 0-2 ATS, 2-0 O/U): Licata is 60-of-86 for 699 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions. Ron Willoughby (187 receiving yards), Marcus McGill (168 receiving yards) and Devin Campbell (67 receiving, 78 rushing) each have two touchdown catches. The Bulls, who lost at Baylor 70-13 last year, are tied for 110th among the 124 FBS teams in points allowed (37.5) and 90th in yards allowed (419.5).

TRENDS:

* Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
* Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games.
* Over is 10-2 in the Bears in their last 12 non-conference games.
* Over is 7-0 in the Bulls last seven non-conference games.

CONSENSUS: Just over 72 percent of wagers are on Baylor at -34.5.

 

[CNOTES]

Six best bets in college football you didn't know about

There are 31 college football teams that are 2-0 ATS in the first two weeks, but just six of those programs have covered as an underdog in both games. Let's take a look at those underrated sides and grade their possible value on ATS heat meter:

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)

The Bulldogs backdoored bettors by outscoring Oklahoma 13-7 in the fourth quarter after the game was long over in Week 1’s loss to the Sooners. They were big underdogs in Week 2 against Louisiana-Lafayette but won out right by 28 points.

Next Game: at North Texas (-3.5) Thursday

The Bulldogs are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games but just 6-13 in their last 19 games overall. North Texas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games. The Mean Green got rocked by 31 points at Texas and then turned around and destroyed SMU by 37. Neither of these teams has shown any sort of consistency through two weeks.

ATS heat meter: Mild


Hawaii Warriors (0-2 SU, 2-0 ATS)

Hawaii has two close losses to Pac-12 opponents. The Warriors played Washington close throughout and scored the only points of the second half in Week 1. They rallied furiously in the fourth quarter and covered the spread with just 1:35 left in the game versus Oregon State in Week 2.

Next game: vs. Northern Iowa (-5) Saturday

Northern Iowa’s only game was a close loss to in-state rival Iowa. Travel will factor into the game as the Panthers have a 15-hour trip and the game also kicks off at 6 p.m. local time/midnight ET (which would be 11 p.m. in Iowa).

ATS heat meter: Hot


Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)

The Roadrunners beat Houston outright and then hung with Arizona throughout their game and scored in the middle of the fourth quarter to cover the spread.

Next Game: at Oklahoma State (+15) Saturday

The Roadrunners are 4-0 ATS in their last four overall games, 9-1 in their last 10 non-conference games and 8-1 in their last nine road games. The last time they suffered a double-digit loss was to Marshall last season but that same UTSA team also lost to Arizona by 25.

ATS heat meter: Sriracha


UAB Blazers (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)

The Blazers beat Troy big in week one and then hung around Mississippi State for the majority of their game. Alabama-Birmingham can put up points, ranked 31st in the nation (41 ppg), which always gives a team chances to covering.

Next game: vs. Alabama A&M (-36) Saturday

This is quite a large spread for a team like UAB but they did beat their only 2013 FCS opponent by 24 and appear to be quite a bit better this season under first-year head coach Bill Clark.

ATS heat meter: Jalapeno


New Mexico State Aggies/UTEP Miners (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS/1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)

These two 2-0 ATS programs meet on Saturday. New Mexico State beat Cal-Poly with a solid performance in Week 1 and then scored with 15 seconds left to beat (and cover) against Georgia State the following game. UTEP jumped on New Mexico early and held on late and then they went wire-to-wire with Texas Tech.

Next game: UTEP -11 Saturday

UTEP has been the more dependable team so far and they also have playmakers in Aaron Jones and Jameill Showers.

ATS heat meter: Five-alarm

 

[CNOTES]

Friday's Tip Sheet

September 10, 2014


**Toledo at Cincinnati**

-- As of Wednesday morning, most betting shops had Cincinnati (0-0 straight up, 0-0 against the spread) installed as an 11-point home favorite with a total of 59.5. Bettors can back the Rockets on the money line for a +330 return (risk $100 to win $330).

-- Tommy Tuberville's team went 9-4 both SU and ATS in his first season at the helm after replacing Butch Jones. The Bearcats won nine of their first 11 games, but they lost a 31-24 decision to Louisville as three-point home underdogs in overtime to close the regular season. Then at the Belk Bowl, Cincy got thumped 39-17 by North Carolina as a 2.5-point 'dog.

-- Cincy returns seven starters on offense and six on defense. QB Brendon Kay is gone and Notre Dame transfer Gunner Kiel has been named the starter for the opener. Kiel, who was an original oral commitment to LSU before changing his mind on Signing Day, was considered the nation's No. 1 prep signal caller in the 2012 class. Things didn't work out in South Bend and we'll see how it goes at Cincy. If Kiel is ineffective, Tuberville has another experienced option in Munchie Legaux, who has 13 career starts and offers a scrambling dynamic. Legaux suffered a season-ending knee injury in 2013 but has recovered and is ready to go Friday if needed.

-- Cincy posted a 3-2 spread record in five games as a home favorite last season. In six games as a double-digit 'chalk' whether at home or on the road, the Bearcats went 3-3 ATS.

-- Cincy returns its top three rushers and one of the AAC's top wide receivers in Shaq Washington, who had 999 all-purpose yards in 2013. Washington had 78 receptions for 783 yards. The Bearcats have one of the league's best pass rushers in junior DE Silverberry Mouhon, who was a second-team All-AAC selection after recording 9.5 sacks and seven QB hurries.

-- Toledo (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) won its opener by a 54-20 count over New Hampshire as an 11-point home favorite. QB Phillip Ely, a transfer from Alabama, completed 24-of-34 passes for 337 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. Kareem Hunt rushed for 136 yards and two scores on 20 carries.

-- Missouri came to The Glass Bowl last week and the oddsmakers gave Toledo plenty of respect, listing it as just a 3.5-point home underdog. This was a bad line, however, and I jumped all over it. Missouri raced out to an early lead and coasted to a 49-24 victory and easy spread cover. The Rockets defense gave up 502 yards of total offense and allowed Maty Mauk to throw five TD passes. On the bright side, Hunt was productive once again, rushing for 148 yards and three TDs on just 15 carries.

-- The biggest downer coming out of the loss to Missouri was the season-ending injury to Ely, who tore his ACL. The starting job now goes to true sophomore Logan Woodside, who started one game as a freshman when he completed 21-of-41 passes for 240 yards and one TD without an interception. In the second half against the Tigers, Woodside connected on 6-of-10 throws for 52 yards. With Woodside at QB, look for a heavy dose of Hunt, who is averaging 8.1 yards per carry.

-- Toledo has thrived as a road underdog on Matt Campbell's watch, going 7-1 ATS. Whether at home or away or on a neutral field, the Rockets are 4-1 ATS in five games as double-digit 'dogs during Campbell's tenure.

-- The 'over' has hit in both of Toledo's games with scoring outputs of 74 and 73 combined points.

-- These schools squared off at The Glass Bowl two seasons ago, with Toledo capturing a 29-23 win as a six-point home underdog. The Rockets got the victory thanks to a long pick-six and a Bernard Reedy kickoff return for a TD.

-- Cincy's Nipper Stadium is undergoing expansion and renovation this year, so the Bearcats' home games will be played at the home of the Bengals, Paul Brown Stadium.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.

**Baylor at Buffalo**

-- As of Wednesday morning, most spots had Baylor (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) installed as a 34-point favorite with a total of 67.5. -- After missing a chance to pad his stats in an easy Week 2 win, Baylor senior QB Bryce Petty has been upgraded to 'probable' and will start against the Bulls. In a 45-0 season-opening home win over SMU, Petty sustained a pair of cracked bones in his lower back. He only played in the first half, connecting on a pair of TD passes and running for another score.

-- Without Petty, Art Briles' squad cruised to a 70-6 home win over Northwestern State as a 47-point home favorite. Baylor raced out to a 49-3 advantage by halftime. Seth Russell was outstanding in Petty's place, throwing for 438 yards and five TDs without an interception. He also had a rushing score. True freshman WR K.D. Cannon, the prize of the program's 2014 recruiting haul, exploded with six receptions for 223 yards and three TDs. Johnny Jefferson rushed for a team-high 107 yards and one TD, while Silas Nacita had 104 rushing yards and a pair of TDs.

-- In the win over the Demons, Baylor played without Petty, WR Antwan Goodley, WR Levi Norwood, WR Corey Coleman and WR Clay Fuller. Along with Petty, Coleman has been upgraded to 'probable' for Friday night. However, Goodley (leg) remains 'doubtful,' while Norwood and Fuller are 'out.'

-- During Briles's seven-year tenure, Baylor is 3-6 ATS in nine games as a road favorite. The Bears are 1-6 ATS in its last seven such spots going back to 2011.

-- Buffalo (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) failed to cover the spread in a 38-28 Week 1 victory over Duquesne as a 28.5-point home favorite. Joe Licata completed 25-of-36 passes for 298 yards and three TDs, while Anthone Taylor ran for 115 yards and two TDs. Ron Willoughby had 10 receptions for 132 yards and two TDs.

-- Buffalo lost a 47-39 decision at Army as a three-point underdog last weekend. The Bulls trailed 28-3 midway through the third quarter, but Licata nearly brought them all the way back. The junior signal caller was intercepted three times, which obviously helped create the deficit. However, Licata ended up throwing for 401 yards and five TDs, pulling his team to within eight points with 2:42 remaining on a TD pass and another throw into the end zone to convert a two-point conversion. Marcus McGill had seven catches for 128 yards and two TDs.

-- Buffalo owns a 5-6 spread record in 11 games as a home underdog during Jeff Quinn's tenure.

-- When these teams met in Waco last year, Baylor rolled to a 70-13 win as a 27.5-point road 'chalk.' The Bears had 781 yards of total offense with Petty passing for 338 yards and a pair of TDs without an interception.

-- ESPN will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

 

[CNOTES]

Bad Company - Week 3

September 11, 2014

Each week during the college football season, we’ll take a look at the worst of the worst teams on the gridiron and who to avoid placing your money on, even if the high number is enticing. Heading into the third week of the campaign, three of these squads come from the Mid-American Conference, starting with a club looking for its first victory since October of 2012.

Miami-Ohio (+31) at Michigan – 3:30 PM EST

The days of Ben Roethlisberger under center for Miami-Ohio are long gone as the Redhawks are currently riding an 18-game losing streak. In 2013, the Redhawks finished 0-12 straight-up and 3-9 against the spread, which included seven defeats by at least 25 points. Miami managed a cover in its season opener against Marshall as 24-point home underdogs in a 42-27 setback, but tripped on itself as a six-point home favorite against Eastern Kentucky in a 17-10 loss.

Now, Miami heads to the Big House to take on a Michigan squad that was humiliated at Notre Dame last Saturday. The Redhawks own a dreadful 2-10-1 ATS record the last two seasons as road underdogs, while Michigan has covered six of its past seven games as a double-digit home favorite.

Kent State (+32) at Ohio State – 12:00 PM EST

Another case of a MAC school going on the road to take on a Big Ten squad coming off an embarrassing loss. The Golden Flashes have compiled a 4-10 SU and 4-9-1 ATS record since the 2012 season in which Kent State made it all the way to the MAC title game. The offense has been offensive so far for the Flashes, who have scored a total of 27 points in two losses to Ohio and South Alabama.

One positive to note with Kent State is the 2-1 ATS record last season as a double-digit road underdog, which including covers at LSU and Ball State. However, it seems like a nearly impossible task for Kent State headed to the Horseshoe on Saturday to come out with a win as the Buckeyes last lost to an in-state school in football back in 1921. Since 2009, OSU has put together a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS record against Ohio schools, as four of those victories came by at least 36 points.

Purdue (+27) vs. Notre Dame (in Indianapolis) – 7:30 PM EST

The Boilermakers owned one of the worst defenses in college football last season en route to a dreadful 1-11 season in which the lone win came against FCS Indiana State. Purdue allowed at least 31 points in eight games in 2013, while the Boilermakers kept that trend alive in the first two contests of 2014 by yielding 34 points to Western Michigan and 38 points to Central Michigan. Now, Purdue gets a major step-up in class against Notre Dame, who has scored 79 points in its first two wins over Rice and Michigan.

The good news for Purdue heading into this neutral-site matchup at Lucas Oil Stadium is the two covers against Notre Dame the last two seasons, a 20-17 defeat in South Bend as 14-point ‘dogs in 2012, followed by a 31-24 home setback in 2013 as 17-point ‘dogs. However, the Boilermakers put together a 3-6 ATS record last season as a double-digit underdog, which included six losses of at least 24 points.

Eastern Michigan (+18) at Old Dominion – 6:00 PM EST

Back to the MAC with the Eagles of Eastern Michigan, who were blown out at Florida last Saturday, 65-0 as 40 ½-point underdogs. How bad was it for EMU? The Eagles were outgained by the Gators, 655-125, while EMU racked up only seven first downs (compared to 27 by UF). Eastern Michigan has won only two games in three of the past four seasons, so its prospects of an improved campaign are highly unlikely in 2014. Now, the Eagles are playing the second of four straight road games, taking on an Old Dominion team who is participating in its first season at the FBS level.

Eastern Michigan is 1-7 ATS in its past eight as a road underdog, while ODU blew an 11-point lead in last week’s 46-34 setback at North Carolina State as a 15 ½-point ‘dog. EMU better strap up defensively after giving up a mind-blowing 42 points or more in nine of the past 12 games.

FIU (+26) vs. Pittsburgh – 12:00 PM EST

The only home underdog on this list is the Golden Panthers, taking on the Pitt Panthers in this obvious mismatch. FIU has split a pair of games against FCS schools Bethune-Cookman and Wagner, while allowing 17 points so far. There isn’t much to get excited about offensively with FIU, who scored 13 points or less 10 times in 2013. Since 2012, the Golden Panthers have lost 12 of their past 13 home games with the lone victory coming against Wagner last week.

Pittsburgh’s largest road win under Paul Chryst is a 24-point margin against USF back in 2012, as the Panthers split six games away from Heinz Field last season. Pitt is seeking back-to-back road wins for the first time since 2008.

Favorite fade:

Vanderbilt (-16) vs. Massachusetts – 12:00 PM EST

Vandy has put together two horrible efforts so far in losses to Temple and Ole Miss. The Commodores have been outscored by a massive margin (78-10), while allowing 547 yards to Ole Miss last week. UMass may not have a lot of talent, but the Minutemen hung around with Colorado as a 17-point home ‘dog in last Saturday’s 41-38 defeat. Last season, UMass compiled a 2-4 ATS record as a road underdog, while covering as 29-point ‘dogs in a 24-7 loss at Vanderbilt.