Cnotes 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[CNOTES]

Essential Week 8 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday


Pro Bowl safety Earl Thomas and the Seattle Seahawks have outscored opponents 63-3 in the second halves of their last three games. Will the trend continue against the Houston Texans?


Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns (+9.5, 38)


The Vikings defense is elite however you want to slice it. Minny’s stopper is allowing just 3.4 third down conversions per game (fewest in the league) and 1.4 offensive touchdowns per game – good for the second best mark in the league.


That doesn’t bode well for the Browns who are dead last in points scored per game at a measly 14.7.


LINE HISTORY: Sportsbooks opened with the Browns getting as few as 7.5 points. The spread has been bet up to 10 points at some shops; others have the Vikings giving 9.5. The total opened at 37.5 and was bet up to 38.


TRENDS:


*The under is 11-4 in the Browns’ last 15 games.
*The Browns are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with winning records.


San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-13, 46)


Losing left tackle Jason Peters is a big blow to the Philadelphia Eagles. He’s been one of the best tackles in the game for years and Pro Football Focus graded him as their top offensive tackle after the first six weeks of the season.


The Eagles lead the league in third down conversions per game at 7.1 and no quarterback in the league has a better passing rating on third down than Carson Wentz’s 133.1. Will he have as much time without the best tackle in football blocking his blindside?


LINE HISTORY: Some locations opened with this spread as low as 10 points but bettors quickly jumped on the chance to fade the 49ers. Most shops now have the Eagles favored by 13 points. The total opened at 47.5 and has dropped to 46.


TRENDS:


*The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four games.
*The over is 5-1 in the Eagles’ last six games and 4-1 in the 49ers’ last five games.


Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 46)


The Panthers are coming off a loss in which their opponent gained just five first downs and made only seven pass attempts. It’s fair to say Carolina’s offense needs to pick up the slack.
Cam Newton and Company has produced just one play over 20 yards in the last two games and the rushing attack has just one running play over 16 yards.


LINE HISTORY: The total opened as low as 44 and can now be found at some locations at 46. No real movement on the spread as we enter the weekend.


TRENDS:


*The Bucs are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games.
*The Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against NFC South opponents.


Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-9, 47.5)


You’ve got to wonder how the Bears are just a game under .500 with an offense built on smoke and mirrors. The Bears have passed the ball on just 35 percent of their offensive snaps over their last three games and averaging just 158.6 yards through the air per game – down from 248 yards per game they produced in 2016.


Chicago is on a two-game winning streak and owns a 6-2 edge in turnover margin in those two games.


LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened as 7.5-point chalk and are now listed as 9-point faves. The total is hanging between 47.5 and 48 defending on the shop.


TRENDS:


*The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
*The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last four games.
*The over is 12-3-1 in the Saints’ last 16 home games.


Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-11, 41.5)


Turnovers are a problem in Cincinnati and it’s not just that Andy Dalton is coughing up the ball too much. It actually has to do with a defense that’s been unlucky when it comes to generating turnovers.


The Bengals have just four takeaways in six games, putting them in a tie for the second fewest in the league. They’ve yet to recover an opponent’s fumble and they had only three takeaways on fumble recoveries a year ago.


LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened at Bengals -10 and there are a few locations that bumped up the spread to -11. The total opened at 41 and is now as high as 42 at some books.


TRENDS:


*The Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
*The Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.
*The under is 8-2 in the Bengals’ last 10 games overall.


Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (-7, 48)


The key to the Chargers’ three-game win streak has been their powerful pass rush. San Diego sits at No. 4 in the league in sacks at 23 and 11 of those have come in the team’s last three games. Edge rushers Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa account for 16 of those 23 QB takedowns.


The Pats offensive lines have had some bad games this season – particularly right tackle Nate Solder. Tom Brady has been sacked 18 times in seven games this season.


LINE HISTORY: The Pats opened as 7-point faves and a few shops have added a hook to make it -7.5. The total opened at 49 and there are few locations dealing 48 now.


TRENDS:


*Tom Brady is 6-0 SU in six career meetings vs. Philip Rivers.
*The Patriots are 14-6-2 ATS in their last 22 home games.
*The over is 8-3 in the Pats’ last 11 games overall.


Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets (+6, 44.5)


What is going on with the Falcons and the AFC East? Atlanta will play an opponent from the AFC East for a fourth consecutive week and will try to snap a three-game losing streak. The Bills, Dolphins and Patriots all held the Falcons’ explosive offense to 17 or fewer points.


Head coach Dan Quinn talked this week about how his offense needs to get back to running the football more. Atlanta averaged 26.2 rush attempts per game last season and are averaging 23.3 attempts per game this season.


LINE HISTORY: The Jets opened as 4.5-point home underdogs and bettors have been back the Dirty Birds. Atlanta is now giving 6 points at most shops. The total opened at 46.5 and has been bet down to 45.


TRENDS:


*The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
*The Falcons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 away dates.
*The over is 18-7-1 in Atlanta’s last 26 games.


Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 46.5)


The Raiders will be without starting running back Marshawn Lynch against the Bills. Lynch was suspended a game for pushing a referee during his team’s Week 7 win against the Kansas City Chiefs.


The Bills traded a big-name player for the second time this season. Buffalo hasn’t missed WR Sammy Watkins since it shipped him to the Los Angeles Rams and it appears it feels the same about DT Marcell Dareus. The former high first round draft pick was shipped to Jacksonville for a sixth round draft pick. Dareus was being used as a rotational player on the Bills’ defensive line this season.


Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 45.5)


Attention second half and live bettors: The Seattle Seahawks are crushing their opposition in the final two quarters. Seattle has outscored its opponents 53-9 in the fourth quarter this season and has shutout the Giants and Rams after halftime. Over the last three weeks, the Seahawks have outscored their opponents in the third and fourth quarters 63-3.


LINE HISTORY: Many offshore locations opened with the Texans getting 5.5 points. The spread has been bet up to 6.5 at most shops heading into the weekend. The total opened at 42 and has been bet up to 45.5 and even 46.


TRENDS:


*The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
*The Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
*The over is 4-0 in Houston’s last four games.


Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+2, 47.5)


The Redskins’ offensive line is banged up heading into Sunday’s game against the Cowboys. Left guard Shawn Lauvao was the only starting O-lineman able to practice on Thursday. Head coach Jay Gruden says he’s most pessimistic about the chances of starting center Spencer Long to play this weekend. Washington would be forced to start rookie Chase Roullier at center if Long can’t play.


LINE HISTORY: The line has sat most of the week with Washington getting 2 or 2.5 points. The total opened at 50.5 and has been bet down to as low as 47.5.


TRENDS:


*The Cowboys are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
*The over is 4-1 in the Cowboys’ last five games.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (+3, 45.5)


The Lions need a jumpstart to their offense and they need it quickly. Detroit’s defense ranks seventh in Football Outsiders DVOA but the offense is among the league’s worst in yards per game. No. 1 receiver Golden Tate is questionable to play in the game after injured his shoulder in Week 6 against the Saints. Tate leads the Lions in catches with 36 and receiving yards with 363.


LINE HISTORY: The line has stayed at Lions +3 all week and the total is hanging around 45.5.


TRENDS:


*The Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a bye week.
*The Steelers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.
*The under is 20-6 in the Steelers last 26 road games.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Sunday, October 29


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Sunday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Steelers at Lions
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (+3, 45.5)


Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger hopes to leave his penchant for throwing interceptions this season in his rear-view mirror on Sunday night, when he faces the aggressive defense of the Detroit Lions. Roethlisberger has answered a five-interception performance with efficient showings in back-to-back wins over Kansas City and Cincinnati.


"They're very opportunistic, a lot of turnovers. ... Doesn't seem like a ball that's in the air ever hits the ground," Roethlisberger told reporters of the Lions, who have forced an NFL third-best 14 turnovers - including nine interceptions. Roethlisberger would be wise to lean on former Michigan State star Le'Veon Bell, who has amassed at least 180 yards from scrimmage in three of his last four games. Detroit's Matthew Stafford took last week's bye to work his way past hamstring and ankle injuries while also soothing his mind after getting intercepted three times in a 52-38 loss to New Orleans on Oct. 15. "I needed to take care of myself physically and mentally refresh, get away for a little bit and think about something other than football for a couple days," Stafford told reporters.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Steelers (-3) - Lions (0) + home field (-3) = Pick’em.

LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened as field goal home dogs and money on the home team briefly brought the number down to +2.5 before returning to the opening number Saturday. The total opened at 45 and bet up as high as 47 before fading down to 45.5.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: 'The bye week came at a good time for Lions after back-to-back SU/ATS losses. Detroit will be rested and focused for this primetime national TV home game. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh enters in a more difficult scheduling situation as the Steelers are playing their eighth straight game without a bye after two emotional conference wins versus the Chiefs and Bengals.' Steve Merril

WHAT BOOKS SAY: The tiny bit of sharp money we've taken has been on the underdog, which isn't surprising, while the public is heavily backing the Steelers. The public pounding Pittsburgh is the only reason we've moved back to the opener. We do anticipate some more sharp action on the dog, but not sure it will be enough to offset the favorite liability. Over has been a big smart play and the squares will get on that train tomorrow as well. More than 75 percent of the money on the over. Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome

INJURY REPORT:


Steelers - WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (Probable, Concussion), OT Marcus Gilbert (Questionable, Hamstring), TE Vance McDonald (Questionable, Knee), DE Stephon Tuitt (Out, Back), WR Martavis Bryant (Out Indefinitely, Disciplinary).


Lions - WR Golden Tate (Probable, Shoulder), LB Paul Worrilow (Probable, Knee), S Glover Quin (Probable, Concussion), RB Dwayne Washington (Probable, Quadricep), G T.J. Lang (Probable, Back), QB Matthew Stafford (Probable, Ankle), OT Emmett Cleary (Questionable, Ankle), DE Ezekiel Ansah (Questionable, Knee), OT Rick Wagner (Questionable, Ankle), OT Greg Robinson (Doubtful, Ankle), WR Kenny Golladay (Out, Hamstring), OT Corey Robinson (Questionable Week 10, Foot).

ABOUT THE STEELERS (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS, 1-6 O/U): Antonio Brown continues to reign supreme among all wide receivers, leading the league with 52 catches for 765 yards. Rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster likely will get the start in place of disgruntled wideout Martavis Bryant, who was demoted to the practice squad and ruled out of Sunday's contest. Smith-Schuster has gone as far as to say he'd give Roethlisberger his game check - approximately $27,000 - should the quarterback join himself, Brown, Bell and others as part of a choreographed celebration. "The ultimate celebration is to get Ben in there," Smith-Schuster told reporters. "If Ben gets in there, I'll give Ben my next check. Obviously, he doesn't need it."

ABOUT THE LIONS (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Golden Tate was spotted with his right arm in a sling last week as he dealt with a shoulder injury, but the determined wideout remains intent on playing versus Pittsburgh. The 29-year-old practiced this week - at least during individual drills - and looks to continue his strong showing at home, as he has registered at least five receptions in each of his last six games at Ford Field. Running back Theo Riddick's 23 catches trail only Tate on the team, although wideout Marvin Jones Jr. has five receptions of 20-or-more yards this season. Rookie Kenny Golladay is battling a hamstring injury but is expected to return to play his first game in over a month.

TRENDS:


* Lions are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.


* Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.


* Over is 6-1 in Lions last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.


* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road chalk Steelers at a rate of 55 percent and the Over is picking up 63 percent of the totals action

 

[CNOTES]

SNF - Steelers at Lions
October 26, 2017


The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2 straight up, 4-3 against the spread) have won their last two games in impressive fashion and they'll try to keep their roll going on Sunday night at Ford Field against the slumping Detroit Lions (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS), who are fresh off a bye week. The popular Steelers come in as three-point favorites against the Lions who have lost two straight. However, the Lions have covered their last five games when coming off a bye.


While Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has looked sluggish this season with nine touchdowns against eight interceptions, the recent success of the Steelers offense rests with running back Le'Veon Bell, who has 898 yards from scrimmage thsi season.


The past two weeks he's been the main driving force, rushing for 134 yards against the Bengals in a 29-14 win last Sunday and before that in Week 6 he had 179 yards in a 19-13 road win over the Chiefs. They are now listed as the second-favorite to win the Super Bowl.

The Lions come in ranked No. 26 on offense with just 298 yards-per-game and No. 28 in points allowed (24.8), but they average 26.6 points-per-game simply because QB Matt Stafford seems to always come alive in the fourth quarter.


However, in the Lions Week 6 game at New Orleans it was Stafford who contributed mightily to their 52-38 loss. The first score of the game was off the first of two Stafford fumbles and then two of his three interceptions were returned for TDs. On the season he has only four picks against 12 TDs, so perhaps that game was just a freaky anomaly.


STEEL CURTAIN RETURNS?


The Steelers don't have the NFL's No. 1 defense technically, but consider that Denver's defense allows 258.5 YPG and the Steelers allow 258.7. The kicker of the argument of saying the Steelers are No. 1 is because allow only 16.6 points per game while Denver allows 19.7 PPG. The effect of the Steelers defense getting gritty and physical, coupled with a willingness to run Bell, has been seeing the bulk of the games staying 'under' the total, as in like six of their seven staying 'under' including all four road games. Their average score in their games this season has been 21-16.


LINE MOVEMENT


CG Technology sports books opened the Steelers -1.5 for this game back in May when releasing spreads on every game from Weeks 1-16. On Sunday night they opened the Steelers -3 and they've bounced around with the juice from -105 to -110. As of Thursday night they were -3 -105 with a total at 45.5. CG's money-line has the Steelers -150, Lions +130. The cheapest price on the Steelers is -145 which is available at most other sports books.


ROBERTS' RATINGS


The Steelers got a ratings boost of nearly a half-point last week because of getting their running game going in a 29-14 win against the Bengals while the Lions dropped almost the same amount following their Week 6, 52-38, loss at New Orleans. That's a differential of 2.5-points between the two teams and the Lions get 2.5-points for home field advantage at Ford Field, so the raw number should be pick 'em. However, public perception plays a roll as well and the Steelers are fresh on the public mind. Lets give that an additional 1.5-points which comes out with my proper line being Steelers -1.5.


TRENDS


Pittsburgh is 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 October games.
Pittsburgh is 11-5-1 ATS in its last 17 games.
Pittsburgh stayed Under in 20 of last 26 road games.


Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 home games.
Detroit is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games overall.
Detroit is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games against winning teams.
Detroit stayed Under in last 4 following bye week.


RECENT HISTORY


The Steelers lead the all-time series 16-14-1 dating back to 1934 when the Lions won the first meeting, 40-7, at University of Detroit Stadium. The Lions dominated the early meetings going 12-4-1 through 1962, but from 1966 on it's been all Steelers with them going 12-2. The last meeting was a 37-27 Steelers win at Heinz Field in 2013. Of the most recent games, the most famous was the Thanksgiving meeting in 1998 at the Silverdome when the official heard the overtime coin flip wrong helping the Lions get the ball first and they won 19-16. The last five meetings have all gone Over the total with the underdog covering four of those. .


NEXT WEEKS SPREADS


Six teams have byes in Week 9 action and one of them is the Steelers. But the Lions are playing on Monday at Green Bay, who are still playing without QB Aaron Rodgers. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted the game at pick 'em on Tuesday, which seems a bit cheap based on backup QB Brett Hundley having little success moving the ball.


DIVISION ODDS


AFC North: Steelers 1/20, Ravens 10/1, Bengals 12/1, Browns 2000/1


NFC North: Vikings 1/3, Lions 4/1, Packers 8/1, Bears 18/1


SUPER BOWL ODDS


The Steelers have quickly established themselves as one of the Super Bowl favorites opening at 10/1 odds at the Westgate and dropping recently to 9/2 (Bet $100 to win $450). Only the Patriots (7/2) have lower odds than the Steelers. The Lions are still just kind of there with people going "mehhh" in an indifferent tone. They opened 60/1 and are now 50/1 with not a lot of takers. The Lions have never been to the Super Bowl, let alone won one.

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 29
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


ATL at NYJ 01:00 PM
NYJ +6.5 *****
U 43.5


OAK at BUF 01:00 PM
BUF -2.0 *****


IND at CIN 01:00 PM
IND +10.5


SF at PHI 01:00 PM
SF +13.0 *****




LAC at NE 01:00 PM
NE -7.0
O 49.0 *****


CHI at NO 01:00 PM
NO -7.5
U 45.5


CAR at TB 01:00 PM
CAR +1.0
U 46.0 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Late Games:


HOU at SEA 04:05 PM
HOU +6.0 *****
U 45.0 *****


DAL at WAS 04:25 PM
WAS +3.0 *****
U 46.0


PIT at DET 08:30 PM
DET +3.0
U 44.5 *****

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Today, Week 8
October 29, 2017


SCOREBOARD


Monday, Oct. 30


Denver at Kansas City, 8:30 p.m. EDT, ESPN. Kansas City has won three straight in the series. Broncos RB Jamaal Charles needs 44 yards from scrimmage to reach 10,000. Most of those yards came as a member of the Chiefs. ... Denver LB Von Miller has a sack in five straight games. Denver (3-3) has won a franchise-record 31 straight games when winning the turnover battle. ... Denver is 3-0 when leading at halftime. ... The Chiefs (5-2) had won 12 straight vs. the AFC West before last week's loss at Oakland. ... Chiefs QB Alex Smith has 15 TD passes and no interceptions. ... RB Kareem Hunt is the only player in NFL history to start his career with seven straight 100-yard scrimmage games.


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STARS


Passing


- Russell Wilson, Seahawks, was 26 for 41 for 452 yards and four touchdowns and an interception in Seattle's 41-38 win over Houston. Deshaun Watson, Texans, was 19 for 30 for 402 yards and four touchdowns and three interceptions. Watson has thrown three touchdown passes in four consecutive games and is the first rookie in NFL history to accomplish the feat. He has 16 touchdown passes in his past four games, the most by a rookie in any four-game span.


- Tom Brady, Patriots, was 32 for 47 for 333 yards and a touchdown pass in New England's 21-13 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Brady has 44 games with at least 300 passing yards and no interceptions. That is tied with New Orleans' Drew Brees for the most such games with a team in NFL history.


- Case Keenum, Vikings, was 27 for 43 for 288 yards with two touchdown passes and an interception in Minnesota's 33-16 win over Cleveland in London.


- Matt Ryan, Falcons, finished 18 for 29 for 254 yards and two touchdowns in the driving rain in Atlanta's 25-20 win over the New York Jets.


- Andy Dalton, Bengals, was 17 for 29 for 243 yards and two touchdowns in Cincinnati's 24-23 win over Indianapolis.


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Rushing


- LeSean McCoy, Bills, had 27 carries for a season-high 151 yards, including a 48-yard touchdown, in a 34-14 win over Oakland.


- Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas, had 33 carries for 150 yards and two touchdowns in Dallas' 33-19 win over Washington.


- Melvin Gordon, Chargers, finished with 14 carries for 132 yards, including an 87-yard touchdown in Los Angeles' 21-13 loss to New England.


- Jordan Howard, Bears, had 23 carries for 102 yards in Chicago's 20-12 loss to New Orleans.


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Receiving


- DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, Texans. Hopkins had eight catches for 224 yards, including a 72-yard touchdown, and Fuller had five receptions for 125 yards and two touchdowns in Houston's 41-38 loss to Seattle. Paul Richardson and Tyler Lockett of the Seahawks also had huge games. Lockett had six catches for 121 yards and Richardson had six catches for 105 yards and two touchdowns.


- Jamison Crowder, Redskins, had nine catches for 123 yards in Washington's 33-19 loss to Dallas.


- Jack Doyle, Colts, had 12 catches for 121 yards and a touchdown in Indianapolis' 24-23 loss to Cincinnati.


- Robby Anderson, Jets, had six catches for 104 yards and a touchdown in New York's 25-20 loss to Atlanta.


- Adam Thielen, Vikings, had five receptions for 98 yards and a touchdown in Minnesota's 33-16 win over Cleveland in London.


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Special Teams


- Matt Bryant, Falcons, was 4 for 4 on field goals and added an extra point in a driving rainstorm in Atlanta's 25-20 over the New York Jets.


- Kai Forbath, Vikings, was 4 for 4 on field goals and 1 of 2 on PATs in Minnesota's 33-16 win over Cleveland in London.


- Mike Nugent, Cowboys, was 4 for 5 on field goals and 3 of 3 on PATs in Dallas' 33-19 win over Washington.


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Defense


- Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman, Seahawks. Thomas returned an interception 78 yards for a touchdown and Sherman had two interceptions in Seattle's 41-38 win over against Houston.


- Matt Milano, Bills, returned a fumble 40 yards for a touchdown in Buffalo's 34-14 win over Oakland.


- Jalen Mills, Eagles, returned an interception 37 yards for a touchdown in Philadelphia's 33-10 win over San Francisco.


- Byron Jones, Cowboys, returned an interception 21 yards for a touchdown in Dallas' 33-19 win over Washington.


- Carlos Dunlap, Bengals, returned an interception 16 yards for the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter of Cincinnati's 24-23 win over Indianapolis.


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STREAKS & STATS


The Eagles (7-1) overcame a slow start to rout the 49ers on the way to their sixth straight win. ... The Saints extended their winning streak to five with a 20-12 victory over the Bears. ... The Patriots edged the Chargers 21-13 and have won four in a row. ... The Bills improved to 5-2 to match their best start during a 17-year postseason drought - the longest active streak in North America's four major professional sports leagues with a 34-14 win over Oakland. ... The Browns and 49ers are the league's remaining winless teams at 0-8. ... The Colts fell to the Bengals 24-23 and have lost three in a row for the first time since 2015. Oakland has dropped four of five after its loss to Buffalo. ... The Colts' Frank Gore passed Barry Sanders for sixth on the NFL career list for carries. He started his 100th consecutive game, the first running back to do so since Curtis Martin started 119 in a row from 1998-2005.


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MILESTONES


New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees completed 23 of 28 passes for 299 yards in the Saints' 20-12 win over Chicago. Brees has 6,011 completions and joined Hall of Famer Brett Favre (6,300) and Peyton Manning (6,125) as the only players in NFL history with at least 6,000 completions. ... Carolina defensive end Julius Peppers had a sack and forced fumble in the Panthers' 17-3 win at Tampa Bay. Peppers has 151 sacks and passed Hall of Famer Chris Doleman (150+) for the fourth-most sacks since the sack became an official stat in 1982. ... Adam Vinatieri kicked three field goals for the Colts and moved into a tie with Gary Anderson for second-most points in NFL history with 2,434. ... Minnesota defensive end Everson Griffen had a sack in the Vikings' 33-16 win over Cleveland. Griffen, who has 10 sacks and has at least one sack in each of the Vikings' eight games this season, is the third player to get a sack in each of his team's first eight games of a season since the sack became an official stat. He joins Indianapolis' Dwight Freeney (2009) and Robert Mathis (2005) as the only players to accomplish the feat. ... Los Angeles Chargers defensive end Joey Bosa had a sack in the team's loss at New England. Bosa has 19 sacks in 20 games, the most sacks by a player in his first 20 games to begin a career since the sack became an official stat.


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SIDELINED


Chicago lost tight end Zach Miller to a gruesome dislocated left knee injury. Miller was trying to make a 25-yard TD catch when his left leg got bent in an unnatural position as he landed in the end zone at New Orleans. ... The Bears also lost two offensive linemen. Right guard Kyle Long left the game with a hand injury in the first quarter and center Cody Whitehair left later with an elbow injury. ... Vikings right tackle Mike Remmers left after sustaining a concussion on the second drive of the win over Cleveland. ... New England lost right tackle Marcus Cannon to an ankle injury in the first half of a win over the Chargers. Los Angeles linebacker Hayes Pullard and Patriots receiver Chris Hogan were both hurt on a collision in the fourth quarter. Hogan had a shoulder injury. ... The 49ers lost left tackle Joe Staley (eye) and right tackle Garry Gilliam (knee). Defensive linemen Solomon Thomas (knee) and DL C.J. Jones (knee), safety Jimmie Ward (forearm) and wide receiver Pierre Garcon (neck) also didn't finish the game. ... Dallas lost wide receiver Cole Beasley to a concussion in its win over Washington. Redskins tight end Jordan Reed injured his right hamstring in the second quarter.


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SPEAKING


''The longest time was waiting for the ball to come down, The 16 yards went pretty quick.'' - Cincinnati defensive lineman Carlos Dunlap who batted Jacoby Brissett's pass into the air, caught it and ran it back 16 yards for the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter of the Bengals' 24-23 win over the Colts.


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''Go ahead and give him rookie of the year. I love watching him.'' - Seattle's Russell Wilson on Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson after the Seahawks rallied past the Texans 41-38. Wilson finished 26 of 41 for a career-high 452 yards and four TDs and an interception and Watson had 402 yards and four touchdowns and three interceptions.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL notebook: Texans protest owner's comment
October 29, 2017


The majority of Houston Texans players kneeled and linked arms during the national anthem before Sunday's game against the Seattle Seahawks in response to team owner Bob McNair making his "inmates running the prison" comment.


About 10 Texans players stood during the anthem.


In addition, some of the Seahawks' defensive line again sat on the bench during the anthem -- Michael Bennett, Sheldon Richardson, Cliff Avril, Jarran Reed, Frank Clark, Quinton Jefferson, Marcus Smith, Branden Jackson and Nazair Jones, according to ESPN.


Another defensive lineman, Dion Jordan, stood next to those players along with offensive linemen Justin Britt and Oday Aboushi. Linebacker Michael Wilhoite again took a knee.


After his comment -- "We can't have the inmates running the prison" -- reported by ESPN The Magazine became public Friday, McNair apologized, met with the Texans players and issued two statements.


--Chicago Bears tight end Zach Miller was carted off the field with a left leg injury in the third quarter of Sunday's game against the New Orleans Saints.


Miller appeared to have caught a 25-yard touchdown pass from quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, but he landed awkwardly on his left leg. After an official review, the scoring catch was reversed because the officials ruled Miller did not maintain control throughout the catch.


Miller was carted off, and the official's ruling was announced. If the catch had stood, the Bears would have cut the Saints' lead to 14-10. They settled for a 44-yard field goal by Connor Barth, cutting the deficit to 14-6.


--The Washington Redskins were without three starting offensive linemen as they faced the Dallas Cowboys at FedEx Field on Sunday.


Listed among Sunday's inactives were tackle Trent Williams (knee), center Spencer Long (knee) and guard Brandon Scherff (knee/back). In addition, top offensive line backup, tackle Ty Nsekhe (core muscle), was out and starting right tackle Morgan Moses was playing on a pair of sprained ankles.


On defense, the Redskins were minus cornerback Bashaud Breeland (knee) and linebacker Mason Foster (shoulder), who was placed on injured reserve this week, but regained the services of cornerback Josh Norman (rib), who missed the last two games.


--The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a depleted secondary in Sunday's game against the Carolina Panthers at Raymond James Stadium.


Cornerbacks Brent Grimes (shoulder) and Robert McClain (concussion protocol) were on the inactive list for Tampa Bay. Additionally, the Bucs are without defensive end Noah Spence, who suffered a season-ending shoulder injury.


The Panthers were without center Ryan Kalil (neck), who missed two games before returning and aggravating the injury last week in a 17-3 loss against the Chicago Bears.

 

[CNOTES]

MNF - Broncos at Chiefs
October 29, 2017


LAST WEEK


The Broncos (3-3 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) began the season at 2-0, but have dropped three of their last four games. Denver’s offense put up 42 points in a Week 2 blowout of Dallas, but the Broncos have scored a total of 42 points in the past four games combined. Vance Joseph’s squad was shut out by the Chargers last Sunday, 21-0 in Los Angeles as one-point favorites. Denver’s offense turned the ball over three times, including a pair of fumbles, while barely breaking the 250-yeard mark.


Denver’s defense wasn’t too bad by allowing Los Angeles to gain 242 yards of offense, but the Chargers scored on two big plays, a 65-yard punt return for a score by Travis Benjamin and Philip Rivers hitting Benjamin on a 42-yard touchdown strike in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Trevor Siemian started the season with six touchdown passes and two interceptions in the first two victories, but the former Northwestern standout has nearly flipped those numbers by throwing only two touchdowns and getting picked off five times.


The Chiefs (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) suffered their second consecutive defeat following a 5-0 start, as Kansas City lost in the final seconds at Oakland, 31-30. Kansas City led, 30-24 until Derek Carr hooked up with Michael Crabtree in the corner of the end zone to end Oakland’s four-game losing streak and give the Chiefs their first two-game skid since October 2015. The Chiefs connected on a pair of 60+ yard touchdown passes as Alex Smith hit Tyreek Hill and Albert Wilson, but Carr lit up the Kansas City defense for 417 yards and three touchdowns.

Rookie of the Year candidate Kareem Hunt was held out of the end zone for the fourth straight game, but managed to rack up over 100 all-purpose yards for the seventh time this season. Following that loss, the Chiefs fell to 1-1 in AFC West play, while suffering their first ATS defeat away from Arrowhead Stadium in four tries this season.


BROKEN ARROW


The Chiefs own one of the top home-field advantages in the NFL at Arrowhead Stadium, while winning two of three home contests this season. Kansas City has won seven of its last nine home games against AFC West foes since 2014, but both of those losses came to Denver. Although the Chiefs ripped the Broncos last December, 33-10, Kansas City won’t forget allowing 14 unanswered points in the final minute of a 31-24 setback in 2015 to Denver.


HIGHWAY TO HELL


The Broncos haven’t been able to cash in away from Sports Authority Field recently by posting a 2-6 SU/ATS record since Week 6 of last season. In this stretch, Denver owns a 1-3 SU/ATS mark as a road underdog, while being listed in this role for the first time this season after outright losses as an away favorite at Buffalo and Los Angeles.


RECENT HISTORY


Kansas City swept Denver last season for the first time since 2000 with two dramatically different results. The Chiefs tied the Broncos in the first matchup in Denver with a Smith touchdown pass to Hill in the final seconds, followed by a two-point conversion. The teams would exchange field goals in overtime before Cairo Santos knocked in the game-winning field goal with two seconds left for a 30-27 victory as 3 ½-point favorites.


The second meeting at Arrowhead Stadium was an early blowout as the Chiefs scored 21 first quarter points highlighted by a 70-yard touchdown and an 80-yard touchdown. Kansas City rushed for 238 yards in a 33-10 rout to easily cash as 3 ½-point favorites, as the Chiefs have won three straight matchups with the Broncos after losing seven consecutive games with Denver from 2012 through 2015.


MONDAY NIGHT DOMINATION


Favorites have rolled under the Monday night lights the last five weeks by picking up victories, while covering four times. The last two weeks have burned the sports books with the Favorite-Over combination, including Philadelphia’s victory over Washington last Monday. Kansas City is making its second appearance on Monday night football this season as the Chiefs pulled away from the Redskins, 29-20 in Week 4 as 6 ½-point favorites. Denver has won three consecutive Monday nighters, including a 24-21 home victory in Week 1 over Los Angeles.


TOTAL TALK


The Broncos began the season with three consecutive OVERS before finishing UNDER the total in their last three contests. Denver has cashed the UNDER in six of its past nine away from Sports Authority Field, while scoring 16 points or less in its last four road contests. Kansas City’s offense has helped the OVER cash in five of seven games, although the OVER barely cashed in two home wins over Philadelphia and Washington, while finishing UNDER the total in its last contest at Arrowhead Stadium in a Week 6 loss to Pittsburgh.


HANDICAPPER’S CORNER


VegasInsider.com expert Joe Nelson breaks down these two AFC West rivals from a defensive perspective, “The statistics paint a huge contrast between these teams on defense with the Chiefs 29th in the league in total defense allowing 396 yards per game. Denver leads the NFL allowing just 258 yards per game, though the Broncos are only 3.3 points per game better in scoring defense. The Broncos are allowing 3.0 yards per rush while the Chiefs allow 4.7 yards per rush while the Broncos yield 6.4 yards per pass attempt compared to 7.8 for the Chiefs.”


Kansas City’s offense hopes to keep putting up solid numbers, but it won’t be easy according to Nelson, “On offense, the Chiefs lead the NFL gaining 8.7 yards per pass attempt and Smith and the Chiefs are the only team in the NFL that hasn’t thrown an interception. Kansas City also leads the NFL gaining 5.2 yards per rush while Denver is a below average team in both of those statistical rankings as this matchup will feature the league’s top offenses vs. one of the league’s elite defenses.”


BOOKMAKER’S TAKE


Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu checks in from the other side of the counter, “We took a little bit of sharp money early on the Chiefs, which prompted a move to -7.5, but then got some smart action on the other side so we’re right back at the open. Feels like a good spread, and if I had to guess, it’d go back up before down. The public is backing the home squad to the tune of 70 percent.”


From the totals perspective, Denver’s struggles offensively may be the reason why the sharps and squares expect a low-scoring affair, “We’ve adjusted the total down 1.5 points so the wiseguys are on that side at this point. And surprisingly, up to this point the squares like the UNDER as well so we’ve got some liability there. Should get some over money from the public Sunday and Monday. Currently, 74 percent of the money is on the UNDER,” Cooley says.


LOOKING AHEAD


Both the Chiefs and Broncos will step out of the conference in Week 9 with road contests against tough NFC East foes. Kansas City travels to Dallas to face the Cowboys as that game opened as a pick-em in the Westgate Superbook early lines released last week. Denver heads to Philadelphia to take on the red-hot Eagles, as the Broncos are back in the road underdog role by receiving 6 ½ points.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )


10/29/2017 10-8-0 55.56% +6.00
10/26/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/23/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/22/2017 11-13-2 45.83% -16.50
10/19/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/16/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/15/2017 13-11-0 54.17% +4.50
10/12/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/09/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/08/2017 8-10-0 44.44% -15.00
10/05/2017 1-0-1 100.00% +5.00
10/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/01/2017 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00


Totals............48 - 48 - 3....50.00%....-24.00




Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total


10/29/2017................4 - 2..................+9.00..........2 - 2...........-1.00.............+8.00
10/26/2017................0 - 1..................-5.50...........1 - 0...........+5.00............-0.50
10/23/2017................1 - 0.................+5.00...........0 - 1.........-5.50.............-0.50
10/22/2017................2 - 3 - 2.............-6.50............4 - 6.........-13.00...........-19.50
10/19/2017.................0 - 0.................+0.00...........0 - 1...........-5.50...............-5.50
10/16/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00...........1 - 0...........+5.00..............+10.00
10/15/2017.................2 - 4.................-12.00...........3 - 1...........+9.50..............-2.50
10/12/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0 ..........+5.00..............+10.00
10/09/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0...........+5.00..............+10.00
10/08/2017.................3 - 3.................-1.50.............2 - 4...........-12.00...............-13.50
10/05/2017.................0 - 0 - 1.............0.00.............1 - 0...........+5.00................+ 5.00
10/02/2017.................1 - 0................+5.00.............0 - 1............-5.50.................- 0.50
10/01/2017.................4 - 4.................-2.00.............2 - 2............- 1.00.................- 3.00


Totals......................16 - 14 - 3............-+3.00...........15 - 16...........-13.00................- 10.00


Sunday Night 2 Team Parlay...........................0 - 3..................................-15.00
.
Thursday Night 2 Team Parlay........................1 - 0..................................+12.50


Thursday Night Game of the month................1 - 0..................................+5.00


Monday Night 2 Team Parlay..........................1 - 0 .................................+12.50

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday’s six-pack
Six most popular picks for Week 8 in the Westgate Super Contest:
6) Dallas Cowboys, -2 (745)
5) Los Angeles Chargers, +7 (746)
4) Atlanta Falcons, -4.5 (766)
3) Seattle Seahawks, -5.5 (797)
2) New Orleans Saints, -9 (801)
1) Carolina Panthers, -2 (745)
Season record of top 6 picks: 15-27

********************

Sunday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday…….

13) Ohio State 39, Penn State 38— Nittany Lions led 35-20 with 12:00 left, 38-27 with 5:00 left, but Buckeyes drove 76-58 yards on their last two drives to win the game. Barrett was 33-39/328 with four TD passes for Ohio State— he was 13-13 with three TD’s in the 4th quarter.

12) Georgia 42, Florida 7— Further proof the world is going crazy: Gators went 19-8 the last two years; they’re 3-4 this year and now they want to fire the coach? Why? One bad year and they show you the door?

Our society is getting so incredibly soft now; people can’t deal with their teams losing, which may be part of why the NFL’s popularity slips in areas during a bad year. Fewer people stick with their teams thru thick and thin. We’re becoming a nation of front-runners.

“We’re with you win or tie, and we’re not that crazy about tie.”

11) Iowa State 14, TCU 7— Cyclones have had one winning season since 2006; the last seven years, Iowa State was 28-58— they’re 6-2 now, after their starting QB left the team for unstated “medical” reasons. Their starting QB the last two years is now their starting middle linebacker. Your 2017 National Coach of the Year? Iowa State’s Matt Campbell.

10) Boston College 35, Florida State 3— Seminoles are 2-5 and appear to have packed it in for the season. Must be fun to be a Miami Hurricanes fan right now, with Gators/Seminoles having such dreadful seasons.

9) Wake Forest 42, Louisville 32— Demon Deacons scored 40+ in an ACC game for first time since 2010. QB John Wolford was 28-34/461 passing against a struggling Louisville defense.

8) Arkansas 38, Ole Miss 37— Razorbacks trailed 31-7 with 3:00 left in first half. Two bad teams playing an exciting game. Arkansas scored a defensive TD with 6:01 left when they were down 35-27, not the best Ole Miss moment of the day.

7) Harvard 25, Dartmouth 22— When Harvard recovered a fumbled punt, a Dartmouth assistant coach punched the window of the press box so hard that he shattered it— security removed him from the stadium.

Dartmouth led 14-0 when they fumbled the punt, which turned out to be a costly play.

6) MLB suspended Yuli Gurriel for the first five games of 2018 for his actions during Game 2 of the World Series, instead of for the rest of the World Series. Some people complained that some immediate action should’ve been taken, because in today’s world, somebody is always complaining about something. Oy

Gurriel loses $382,716 with the 5-game suspension, which isn’t nothing; if he gets fined for his 2017 salary instead (doubtful) it would’ve been $444,444.44. His base salary for next year is $2M less than this year.

5) Upsets of the Week:
UNLV (+21) 26, Fresno State 16
Florida International (+16) 41, Marshall 30
Houston (+10.5) 28, South Florida 24
Air Force (+10) 45, Colorado State 28
Texas State (+8) 27, Coastal Carolina 7
Iowa State (+6.5) 14, TCU 7

4) Northwestern 39, Michigan State 31 (OT)— Game was 17-all after regulation; Wildcats win in OT for second week in row, are now 5-3, and on their way to being pummeled by a better team in some obscure bowl game that I’ll watch because I’m an idiot.

Northwestern is 3-10 all-time in bowl games, but they have won two of their last three bowls.

3) Kentucky 29, Tennessee 26— Vols caught a Hail Mary on last play of the game, but the guy got tackled on the 3-yard line— this is Wildcats 2nd win in their last 33 games with Tennessee, the other win coming in 2011. It was also the 2nd time in last 21 meetings that Kentucky was the favorite— Vols covered the 5-point spread.

2) Nebraska 25, Purdue 24— Cornhuskers drove 70 yards in 8 plays in 1:08, scoring winning TD on a 13-yard pass with 0:14 left. Purdue led 25-12 with 12:00 left in the game.

1) USC 48, Arizona State 17– Trojans bounce back from last week’s loss at Notre Dame with a big conference win here. USC plays Arizona next week, and can pretty much clinch the Pac-12 South then.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Monday, October 30


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Broncos at Chiefs
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 43)


The Kansas City Chiefs reigned supreme in clashes against their AFC West brethren with 12 straight wins before last week's setback in Oakland. The Chiefs look to avenge that defeat and end an overall two-game losing skid on Monday night when they welcome the return of their franchise's all-time leading rusher in Jamaal Charles and the Denver Broncos.


Kansas City has its own dynamic back in rookie Kareem Hunt, who is the only player in NFL history to start his career with seven straight 100-yard scrimmage games. Hunt, who leads the league in yards rushing (717) and is second in yards per carry (5.78), rolled up 117 yards from scrimmage (87 yards rushing, 30 receiving) in a 31-30 loss to the Raiders on Oct. 19. Like the Chiefs, the Broncos have also lost two straight to bring themselves back to the pack in the suddenly congested division heading into Charles' return to Arrowhead Stadium. "I'll always be a Chief ... I have so much history (there)," said the 30-year-old Charles, who needs 44 yards from scrimmage to reach 10,000 for his career. "Lot of sad memories, lot of happy memories. At the end of the day, I'm just going out there to play football."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (1) - Chiefs (-4) + home field (-3) = Chiefs -6

LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened as 7.5-point home chalk and briefly went down to an even -7 before returning to the opening number. The total hit the betting board at 42 and was quickly bet up to 44 and steadily been fading to the current number of 42.5.

INJURY REPORT:


Broncos - TE A.J. Derby (Questionable, Shoulder), DE Derek Wolfe (Questionable, Hand), TE Virgil Green (Questionable, Shoulder), S Will Parks (Questionable, Shoulder), QB Paxton Lynch (Questionable, Shoulder), WR Cody Latimer (Questionable, Knee), OT Menelik Watson (Questionable, Calf), WR Emmanuel Sanders (Questionable, Ankle), WR Isaiah McKenzie (Questionable, Ankle), OT Donald Stephenson (Questionable, Calf), LB Todd Davis (Out Indefinitely, Ankle), LB Shane Ray (Probable, Wrist).


Chiefs - OL Mitch Morse (Probable, Foot), RB Charcandrick West (Probable, Concussion), LB Justin Houston (Questionable, Knee), OL Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (Questionable, Knee), OL Parker Ehinger (Out Indefinitely, Knee), LB Dadi Nicolas (Questionable, Knee), LB Tamba Hali (Questionable, Knee), DB Steven Nelson (Questionable Week 9, Abdominal).

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (3-3 SU, 2-3-1 ATS, 3-3 O/U): Trevor Siemian became the talk of the town following Denver's disastrous 21-0 setback to the Los Angeles Chargers, and the conversation was anything but positive after the team's first shutout loss in a quarter-century. "I have to play better. It starts with me," the second-year starter said. "... Guys are frankly embarrassed with what we put out there last Sunday. We have to play better. I have to play better. Everybody knows that." C.J. Anderson has been held in check after rushing for at least 81 yards in three of the team's first four games, as he totaled just 61 on the ground over the last two.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS, 5-2 O/U): Alex Smith is shedding the "game manager" label that has followed him around for the majority of his career in favor of perhaps another title: mid-season NFL MVP candidate. The top overall pick of the 2005 draft eclipsed 300 yards passing and three touchdowns for the third time this season to give him 15 scoring strikes and no interceptions. Trusted target Travis Kelce found the end zone last week versus the Raiders and has reeled in at least one reception in 55 consecutive contests. Kelce gashed the Broncos for season highs in catches (11) and receiving yards (160) with a touchdown in a 33-10 victory last Christmas.

TRENDS:


* Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.


* Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.


* Under is 8-1 in Broncos last 9 games following a ATS loss.


* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.


* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home fave Chiefs are picking up 64 percent of the action on the spread and Over is grabbing 54 percent of the totals selections.

 

[CNOTES]

Monday's Best Bet
October 30, 2017

NFL Week 8 MNF Best Bet
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs


The AFC West takes center stage to close out Week 8 as two struggling teams on losing streaks do battle in Kansas City tonight.


It's tough to really say Kansas City is “struggling” with a 5-2 SU record, but they've lost two in a row (vs Pittsburgh and @ Oakland), as injuries have started to mount on both sides of the ball. Kansas City still has the potential to build their lead to three games in the division with a victory this evening, and as home favorites of a TD, oddsmakers like the Chiefs chances of doing so.


Given how the Broncos have played in recent weeks it's easy to see why a number like this was hung on the board, as Denver's been downright awful the past two weeks, and borderline going on a month– specifically on offense. Last week's shut out loss to the Chargers of all teams was embarrassing, but it still wasn't embarrassing as the 23-10 home loss as 13.5-point home favorites against a Giants team that had practice squad receivers as the only guys on the outside.


The Broncos offense has progressively gotten worse over the past month with scores of 16, 16, 10, and 0 the past four weeks, and the organization could have a mutiny led by the defense on their hands soon if the Broncos offensive players don't start carrying their own weight.


BetOnline.ag Odds: Kansas City (-7); Total set at 42


After two straight weeks of baffling offensive performances, there aren't many bettors out there that have an iota of faith in Denver right now. Shutouts have happened with a bit more frequency this year, but to get blanked by the Chargers a week after the Broncos were never really in the game as double digit home favorites against a decimated New York Giants team has to have the Broncos organization at the ready to push the panic button. But we all know that things can change rather quickly on a week-to-week basis in the NFL, and a second crack under the prime-time lights in three weeks gives the Broncos a chance for redemption. This has got to be the ultimate “buy low” spot on a team that can't score points but still has a very talented defense that ranks #1 in the league in yards allowed per game.


Kansas City enters tonight after losing a wild game with an even wilder finish to the Raiders on TNF in Week 7. Bettors who backed the Chiefs that day had to be sick to their stomach with how that game against Oakland finished, and now KC has to find a way to rebound in the midst of this tough stretch in their schedule.


Four straight weeks of facing the likes of Pittsburgh, Oakland, Denver, and Dallas is as tough a stretch as any, but considering the extra rest they've had since that Oakland defeat, and how bad Denver has looked lately, it's no surprise to see Kansas City garnering about 65% of the support tonight.


However, even with the extra rest, I see this spot as one that's better to grab the points with a Broncos team nobody really wants to touch right now. Denver's offense really has nowhere to go but up at the moment, and sometimes all it takes is one strong drive or one big play that takes the cap off the opposing defense and confidence is restored. Kansas City has started to show the affects of being without S Eric Berry in the secondary the past few weeks, and it's not like Denver QB Trevor Siemian doesn't have talented weapons to work with.


Siemian's play has been a big cause for concern during this recent bad stretch for Denver, but this is a guy that threw for 3 TD's and 368 yards in one of his two games against KC a year ago, and that was with Berry patrolling the secondary for KC. Siemian is more than capable of having a solid day against KC tonight, and if Denver's defense – the clear strength of their team – can get a turnover or two, the Broncos will be in fine position to possibly pull off the outright upset.


I'm not willing to go that far yet with Denver as it's not like I completely trust them to all of a sudden turn things around, but their defense is too good not to at least give their offense a chance to keep this one close. Falling three full games (essentially 3.5 with a head-to-head loss vs KC) behind the Chiefs in the division race could be the death blow to Denver's AFC West title races, so expect them to actually show up this week on both sides of the ball.


With the road team being 6-1 ATS in the last seven games between these two, the underdog on a 5-1 ATS run, and KC on a 1-6 ATS run after allowing 30+, I'm grabbing the points with the Broncos tonight as an “ugly dog” that shows it's best side on MNF.


Odds per - BetOnline.ag

Best Bet: Denver +7

 

[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 8
October 30, 2017

Overall Notes


NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 8 RESULTS


Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-1
Against the Spread 7-5


Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-5
Against the Spread 5-7


Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-5

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Panthers (+1, ML +105) at Buccaneers, 17-3

The largest favorite to cover
Eagles (-13) vs. 49ers, 33-10
Vikings (-11) at Browns (in Twickenham, UK), 33-16
Patriots (-7) vs. Chargers, 21-13

Paying the Bills


-- The Buffalo Bills led the Oakland Raiders 27-14 with 3:12 to go and a total of (47.5). A couple of first downs would ice the game and 'under' bettors would be pleased, right? Technically that's how it should have worked, but LeSean McCoy ripped off a 48-yard touchdown run to push the total to 33-14, with the extra point pending. Under bettors still had a chance, right? No. Stephen Hauschka split the uprights and 'under' bettors lost by a half-point at most shops. It was the second straight 'over' result for the Bills, and third in a row at home. The Bills also moved to 5-1-1 ATS overall, including 3-0-1 ATS at home.

Fly Eagles Fly


-- The Philadelphia Eagles posted a 33-10 victory against the San Franciso 49ers in soggy Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles have completed half of their regular-season schedule with seven wins in eight outings, and they're an impressive 6-2 ATS. They're also 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS at the Link, and 3-1 SU/3-1 ATS in four assignments on the road, as the Eagles fly into the second half with the NFL's best record. They have covered five straight heading into next Sunday's game aginst the visiting Denver Broncos.


Total Recall


-- Sunday Night Football was another defensive battle, as the Pittsburgh Steelers and Detroit Lions combined for just 35 points, or 10 points below the number. There were a ton of big plays in this game, but a lot of points left on the table, too. The Lions went for it on fourth and goal and were stuffed once. The next time head coach Jim Caldwell had fourth and goal from the 1, he elected a field goal instead. With 14 potential points, the Lions came away with just three. Antonio Brown had a touchdown reception nullified on a suspect offensive pass interference call, too. It was just one of those days. Hopefully you bet the 'over' (7) in Game 5 of the World Series for the easy winner.


-- The game with the lowest total on the board -- Miami-Baltimore (38) -- took place on Thursday night. And the Ravens took care of the over themselves, which was fortunate since the Dolphins didn't help one iota in the 40-0 loss. That's fourth straight over results for the Ravens, and five of the past six games. The over is 2-0 in the past two games for the Dolphins, too, as they have allowed 34.0 PPG during the span.


-- The L.A. Chargers-New England (49) game had the highest total on the board, but it was never really in jeopardy of going over. Three of the fourth quarters had a total of nine or fewer points, and there were just three total touchdowns with a failed two-point conversion on one of the TDs. There were also four field goals and a safety to account for the scoring. After the over hit in the first four games for the Patriots, the 'under' has connected in each of the past four outings. The turnaround is thanks in large part to their defensive improvement, as they have allowed 12.8 PPG during the four-game span after giving up 32.0 PPG through the first four outings.


-- The 'Over' is 14-11 (56.0%) through the first 25 primetime games of the 2017 season with Monday's game AFC West Division clash between the Denver Broncos-Kansas City Chiefs (42.5) still pending. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.


Injury Report


-- Bears TE Zach Miller (knee) was carted off and taken to a local area hospital in New Orleans after suffering a dislocated left knee.


-- Cowboys WR Cole Beasley (concussion) left the game in Washington due to a concussion and he is considered week-to-week.


-- Patriots WR Chris Hogan (shoulder) left the game against the Chargers in the fourth quarter after taking a shot to the shoulder and he was in a sling after the game. He'll have an MRI on Monday.


Looking Ahead


-- In Week 9 the Bills and the Jets will kick off the action on Thursday night in New Jersey. The Bills are installed as 3 1/2-point favorites to open in spite of the fact they're 1-4 ATS over their past five inside the division, and 0-4 ATS in their past four road games against a team with a losing home record. The Jets are 3-1-1 ATS in their past five inside the division, 4-0-1 ATS in their past five against AFC foes and 5-0-1 ATS in their past six games overall. They're also 7-0 ATS in their past seven at home against teams with a winning road mark. The Bills have covered six of the past eight meetings, including Week 1 in Buffalo, and the home team is 8-3 ATS in the past 11 in this series.


-- The Colts will trudge into Houston to battle the Texans, looking to fight their way out of the basement. The Texans are coming off an impressive, albeit disappointing, offensive shootout loss in Seattle. The Colts are 2-5 ATS in their past seven against AFC foes, 1-4 ATS in the past five road games and 0-4 ATS in their past four divisional battles. The Texans are 9-3-1 ATS in the past 13 inside the division, while going 5-1 ATS in their past six overall. Indianapolis are 3-0-1 ATS in their past four trips to Houston, with the road team 4-0-2 ATS in the past six meetings in this series.


-- The Bucs roll into NOLA trying to cool off the Saints. Tampa is a dismal 0-5-1 ATS over their past six games overall, and 0-3-1 ATS in their past four on the road. They're also 1-4 ATS in their past five inside the division. On the flip side, the Saints are on fire, going 8-1 ATS in their past nine against teams with a losing record, and 10-2 ATS in their past 12 inside the division. The 'under' has hit in four of the past five in this series.


-- The Falcons and Panthers need a win in the NFC South to keep the Saints within sight. Neither team has fared well against the number lately, as Atlanta is 0-4 ATS in their past four overall, and Carolina is 0-4 ATS in their past four at home, and 2-6 ATS in their past eight within the divsion. Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in their past five trips to Charlotte, while the home team has hit in seven of the past nine in this series. The 'under' is 6-1-1 in the past eight meetings, while going 15-5-2 in the past 22 meetings in North Carolina.

 

[CNOTES]

Bettors win Week 8
October 30, 2017


After sweating out Sunday's first 10 NFL games where the favorites went 9-1 straight up, every Las Vegas sports book had their day's fate decided by the Sunday night game where everyone seemed to either have the Steelers, the 'over' and both hooked up in a parlay or teaser.


"It all boils down to the late game," said William Hill's top bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich prior to kickoff.


Same story all over town as the Steelers came in as three-point road favorites riding a two-game win streak while the Lions had lost two straight but we're coming off a bye week.


"If it comes Detroit and Under, it makes the day a wash," said MGM Resorts sports book manager Jeff Stoneback. "Pittsburgh and Over will make it double our loss. The game Under is our main rooting interest."


The good news for the books is that the game stayed 'under' the total, but the Steelers covered in a 20-15 win over the Lions giving mixed around the state. If it weren't for a silly fourth down decision by Lions head coach Jim Caldwell to go for it near goal line instead of taking the lead with a field goal, the winner may have been the Lions. William Hill's 107 sports books had 72 percent of the cash taken on the game siding with Pittsburgh.


Before the Steelers game, the Dallas Cowboys gave the books their most indigestion in a 33-19 win at Washington.


"We were a small loser on the day," said Stoneback. "We were wiped out by the Cowboys in a combination of parlay bettors, casino players and sharp bettors. We had a large six-figure wager from a house player and then got lots of late sharp action which we closed high at -3 -125."


Bettors that had the total 'over' (46.5) were aided in the Redskins final desperate seconds when quarterback Kirk Cousins threw an interception that Dallas returned for a touchdown. That combination helped lots of bettors cash side-to-total parlays at 13/5 odds (Bet $100 to win $260).


Usually when the Chicago Bears cover, like they have been for most of the season, it's good for the books, but that wasn't the case everywhere this week in the New Orleans Saints' 20-12 win.


"We got middled on the Bears game," Stoneback said. "We had quite a bit of sharp action early in the week taking +9, +8.5 and then by game day with so much risk we dropped it down to -7.5 with the Saints and found plenty of takers."


But there was some good news on the day for the house.


"Our best game was the Falcons not covering," said Stoneback of Atlanta's 25-20 win at a rainy Metlife Stadium against the New York Jets. "We opened the Falcons -4.5, but moved quickly during the week to -5.5 before taking much action on it. Most of the action, over 50 percent, was taken today at -6.5."


Other books around town had different outcomes from the first 10 games, which the favorites went 5-5 ATS, but still needed the Lions to cover.


"We're up a little and will have a loser with a Pittsburgh cover," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "We lost our three biggest games. We started in a big hole. Browns and 49ers were our biggest games and we crawled back a little.


After seeing the Browns up 13-12 against the Vikings in the early London game, the thought of the Browns (+11) having to go across the pond to finally win was amusing. But the Browns did Browns things in the second-half and lost 33-16.


The 49ers (+12.5) lost 33-10 at Philadelphia to give the Eagles an NFL-best 7-1 record. The Westgate SuperBook has the Eagles at 7/1 odds to win Philly's first Super Bowl.


"Bills win allowed us to escape a total disaster," said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. "Jets helped us out, but we opened Falcons -4.5. Steelers covering equals a losing day."


Buffalo looked good in a 34-14 home win over the Raiders to take them to 5-2, only one game behind the Patriots in the AFC East. Could we be witnessing the Bills finally get over the hump and make the playoffs for the first time since 1999? They've won all four games at home and they won't the Patriots until December when they play twice.

 

[CNOTES]

Buyer's Remorse - Week 8
October 30, 2017


Watson Wastes An Historic Day


Most of the NFL Week 8 Sunday went chalk after the Baltimore Ravens eviscerated the Miami Dolphins on Thursday. The Eagles kept scoring on the planet, the Saints continue to look abnormally tough, the Redskins are falling apart at the seams and the Steelers are turning back in to a big-play machine. There was a lot of easy money on the table, and six games provided some seriously alarming takeaways.


Let’s dig them out down below.


Odds per BetOnline.ag


Indianapolis Colts +10.5 over Cincinnati Bengals
(CIN wins 24-23)


Let’s cut right down to it: Cincinnati is one of the worst home bets in the league. Their 1-3 ATS record is only better than the New York Giants (who have their own problems). It’s just too difficult to trust the Bengals overall. They are too allergic to running the football, and Andy Dalton is regressing at an incredibly unpredictable pace.


None of this makes the Colts bankable, but they might be worth a measure against monster lines. They’re by no means great, and if they trade T.Y. Hilton, they’ll continue to face double-digit odds which might not be the worst thing.


All in all, do you trust either? You’re right not to toss blind faith behind either. Marvin Lewis and Chuck Pagano are not long for the headsets these days.


Buffalo Bills -1.5 over Oakland Raiders
(BUF wins 34-14)


While not an upset, this game is absolutely worth mentioning for NFL futures purposes. The Raiders are now the third worst team in the conference according to the real life standings. We’re not even kidding. Aside from their jaw dropping victory over the Chiefs, the Raiders have lost pivotal tie-breakers to the Chargers and Bills. This puts them desperately up against the ropes.


Even worse is the fact that Vegas can’t seem to get a handle on them. On paper, the Raiders glowed like a nugget of plutonium in the off-season. Derek Carr signed a huge extension and Marshawn Lynch unearthed himself from the grave of retirement to play for his home town. Alongside Amari Cooper and Khalil Mack, one of the favorites to win Defensive Player of the Year, this team was supposed to have it all.


Most big names carry their teams given the opportunity, but none of the four listed players for the Raiders seems capable. Mack is an incredible player, but the Raiders rank 25th in total defence (356.9 yards against and 23.8 points allowed). The offence is even less spectacular, mostly because Carr is as erratic as “elite” passers get. To give you perspective on how badly Carr is performing, he’s barely outpacing Jacoby Brissett in terms of production.


The rest of Oakland’s schedule is an absolute gauntlet as well. They play Miami next, and then have a bye week. After that it’s the Patriots, Broncos, Giants, Chiefs, Cowboys, Eagles and Chargers. To be fully honest, they need to win six of those games to make the playoffs.


And even that relies on Buffalo losing games which doesn’t seem to be happening anytime soon. The Bills remain the hottest betting team in the NFL at 5-1-1 ATS and while very little is as sexy as what the Raiders propose on paper, honor’s in the dollar and Buffalo is flat out paying.


Carolina Panthers +1.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(CAR wins 17-3)


The Panthers are the boom-or-bust bet of the year. They can beat the Patriots, hang tough with the Eagles and then lose outright to the Bears. You’re really risking it all sanity wise by betting on this team, but that’s about par for the course with the 2017 NFL betting season isn’t it?


As for Tampa, their four-game losing skid is abominable. Jameis Winston looks terrible, and I know he wants to blame a sore shoulder but get real. The Bucs have so much firepower and can’t seem to put it together because of a weak offensive line that gets shellacked against almost everybody. Tampa Bay has now only beaten Eli Manning (barely) and their former quarterback Mike Glennon. They’re barreling towards a 4-12 season yet again, while Jameis is costing himself tens of millions in guarantees. Stay the hell away.


New England Patriots -6.5 over Los Angeles Chargers
(NE wins 21-13)


Both teams have a bye week heading in to Week 9, but here’s the important parts: What New England did after losing Don’t’a Hightower was an exceptional display of simple strategy. They played keep-away the whole game basically. The Patriots held the ball for 37 minutes against the Chargers who only had 23 minutes with the ball in hand.


Why is this important? Because while New England remains a touch-and-go bet overall because of how badly the lines are stacked against them, there’s no reason to give up hope on the Chargers. Melvin Gordon is having a quietly prolific season but is hurt. No matter what you want to qualify the Chargers as, they’re a smash mouth football team and they need their lead battering ram to invoke the style that they’re best at.


Anytime you see a little too much Branden Oliver, it’s time to get to live betting to hedge the Chargers. They should be better out of the bye week, and lost no respect from those who know a thing or two (or fifty) about betting on football.


New York Jets +6.5 over Atlanta Falcons
(ATL wins 25-20)


It’s easy to suggest that Atlanta struggled in the heavy downpour over the Meadowlands on Sunday, but it’s not like they’re playing that well even when they’re sheltered from the elements by their billion dollar stadium either. Nobody seems to have noticed the last few weeks.


For some dumb reason, the line on this game moved two whole points after opening at -4.5 for Atlanta. It was good then, and it was a lock at nearly a touchdown. The Jets had some problematic play calling in the second half which submarined their chances of scoring a real upset, but that’s not on the players. For whatever reason, the only team that’s really blown the Jets out of the water is Oakland and that was back in Week 2.


This is a team that embraces playing ugly, something that the Falcons simply don’t seem equipped to handle.


Houston Texans +6 over Seattle Seahawks
(SEA wins 41-38)


This was a [expletives removed by writer] game!!! The Houston Texans rallied behind an historic effort from DeShaun Watson that fell short because Russell Wilson is just so damn good at keeping hope alive. This was simply one of those games where whomever had the ball last was going to win.


Watson threw for 402 yards, led the team in rushing with 67 yards on just 8 carries and amassed 4 touchdowns in the loss. DeAndre Hopkins totaled 224 yards and a beautiful 72-yard score, while the Will Fuller rampage continued with his 125 yards and 2 touchdowns. In other words, there’s no slowing down the Texans, who have undressed an insane amount of teams this year since Watson’s ascension.


The good news for Houston is that they won’t have to face guys like Russell Wilson that often. Wilson is amassing a low-key MVP caliber season and the guy simply excels at winning football games while mitigating costly mistakes. Thanks to a generous head start, the Seahawks look like a prime playoff contender with a make-or-break date with the Rams in Week 15.


Both teams are surefire bet-on teams, especially considering how soft Houston’s schedule is. Beware of Seattle against monster lines, which they likely won’t have to deal with that much considering their next batch of home games include Washington, Atlanta and Philadelphia while they travel against softer lines to play Arizona, San Francisco and Jacksonville in the immediate future.


The Monday Night chaser is the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Denver Broncos as -7.0 favorites in a must-win game for both!

 

[CNOTES]

Monday Night Football Best Bets:

NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

10/29/2017 10-8-0 55.56% +6.00
10/26/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/23/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/22/2017 11-13-2 45.83% -16.50
10/19/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/16/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/15/2017 13-11-0 54.17% +4.50
10/12/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/09/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/08/2017 8-10-0 44.44% -15.00
10/05/2017 1-0-1 100.00% +5.00
10/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/01/2017 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00

Totals............48 - 48 - 3....50.00%....-24.00


Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total

10/29/2017................4 - 2..................+9.00..........2 - 2...........-1.00.............+8.00
10/26/2017................0 - 1..................-5.50...........1 - 0...........+5.00............-0.50
10/23/2017................1 - 0.................+5.00...........0 - 1.........-5.50.............-0.50
10/22/2017................2 - 3 - 2.............-6.50............4 - 6.........-13.00...........-19.50
10/19/2017.................0 - 0.................+0.00...........0 - 1...........-5.50...............-5.50
10/16/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00...........1 - 0...........+5.00..............+10.00
10/15/2017.................2 - 4.................-12.00...........3 - 1...........+9.50..............-2.50
10/12/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0 ..........+5.00..............+10.00
10/09/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0...........+5.00..............+10.00
10/08/2017.................3 - 3.................-1.50.............2 - 4...........-12.00...............-13.50
10/05/2017.................0 - 0 - 1.............0.00.............1 - 0...........+5.00................+ 5.00
10/02/2017.................1 - 0................+5.00.............0 - 1............-5.50.................- 0.50
10/01/2017.................4 - 4.................-2.00.............2 - 2............- 1.00.................- 3.00

Totals......................16 - 14 - 3............-+3.00...........15 - 16...........-13.00................- 10.00

Sunday Night 2 Team Parlay...........................0 - 3..................................-15.00
.
Thursday Night 2 Team Parlay........................1 - 0..................................+12.50

Thursday Night Game of the month................1 - 0..................................+5.00

Monday Night 2 Team Parlay..........................1 - 0 .................................+12.50


********************


MONDAY, OCTOBER 30


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


DEN at KC 08:30 PM


DEN +7.0 **********

O 42.0 **********

2 Team Parlay + Total of the month 5 units on each

 

[CNOTES]

Broncos defense keeps Chiefs in check in another tough loss
October 31, 2017


KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) Denver's defense could be forgiven for harboring animosity toward its offense these days.


The league's best unit did just about everything it could to keep the Kansas City Chiefs' dynamic offense in check Monday night, and the result was a tight game into the fourth quarter. But it could not overcome the sheer ineptitude of the Broncos' offense in a 29-19 defeat - their third straight.


Five turnovers. Three sacks. A whole bunch of ugly plays.


''Our defense played winning football,'' Broncos coach Vance Joseph said. ''Our offensive line blocked. We ran the ball for 177 and the pass protection was better, but it all falls back to turning the ball over five times. That's insane. You can't win when you turn the ball over five times.''


The Broncos (3-4) only surrendered 276 yards to the NFL's third-rated offense. They held rookie sensation Kareem Hunt, the league's rushing leader, to 46 yards on 22 carries. They even managed to force a pair of turnovers against a team that hadn't turned it over since its first offensive play of the season.


That was just the start of it, too.


They held the Chiefs (6-2) to two third-down conversions. They held Alex Smith, in the midst of a breakout season, to 14 of 31 for 202 yards and a touchdown. They even held speedster Tyreek Hill, who burned them so often last year, to two catches for 38 yards on Monday night.


''It's the Broncos, so we knew it was going to be a physically demanding game all the way to the end of the fourth quarter,'' Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce said. ''That's what it was, sure enough.''


Again, thanks to the defense. They held the Chiefs to three first downs, 77 yards of total offense and a barrage of field goals over the final two quarters.


''They're a good unit. A really good unit,'' Smith said.


Just not good enough to make up for the offense.


Trevor Siemian tossed three interceptions, completing 19 of 36 passes for 198 yards and a late, almost meaningless score. At one point he had completed more passes to the Chiefs than his own players, and he was sacked three times to add injury - or at least some aches and pains - to insult.


''Turn it over five times and you're still in the game with a team like Kansas City. I mean, that's kind of unbelievable,'' Siemian said. ''It's just tough when you're playing two teams. You can't play the Denver Broncos and play another team. Too many mistakes by me.''


Joseph said he didn't consider going to backup Brock Osweiler at halftime, insisting Siemian had earned the right to run the show. But the first-year coach also sidestepped a question about whether a quarterback change is necessary going forward, especially with Paxton Lynch practicing again.


''I'm going to watch the film tonight and tomorrow,'' Joseph said.


Siemian wasn't the only one making mistakes, though.


The run game, which was so good during the Broncos' hot start, mostly floundered until C.J. Anderson got loose for some big gains down the stretch. And longtime Chiefs star Jamaal Charles, back at Arrowhead Stadium for the first time as a visitor, coughed the ball up in the first quarter.


The Chiefs' Marcus Peters picked it up and ran 45 yards for the game's opening score.


''Every game looks the same if you give the football away,'' Joseph said. ''We have a good football team. We have a great defense. If we don't give the ball away, we can beat anybody in the league.''


''But right now,'' he added, ''we're giving games away. All four losses are the same.''

 

[CNOTES]

Monday Night Football Best Bets:


NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )


10/30/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/29/2017 10-8-0 55.56% +6.00
10/26/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/23/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/22/2017 11-13-2 45.83% -16.50
10/19/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/16/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/15/2017 13-11-0 54.17% +4.50
10/12/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/09/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/08/2017 8-10-0 44.44% -15.00
10/05/2017 1-0-1 100.00% +5.00
10/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/01/2017 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00


Totals............49 - 49 - 3....50.00%....-24.50




Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total


10/30/2017................0 - 1..................-5.50...........1 - 0...........+5.00............-0.50
10/29/2017................4 - 2..................+9.00..........2 - 2...........-1.00.............+8.00
10/26/2017................0 - 1..................-5.50...........1 - 0...........+5.00............-0.50
10/23/2017................1 - 0.................+5.00...........0 - 1.........-5.50.............-0.50
10/22/2017................2 - 3 - 2.............-6.50............4 - 6.........-13.00...........-19.50
10/19/2017.................0 - 0.................+0.00...........0 - 1...........-5.50...............-5.50
10/16/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00...........1 - 0...........+5.00..............+10.00
10/15/2017.................2 - 4.................-12.00...........3 - 1...........+9.50..............-2.50
10/12/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0 ..........+5.00..............+10.00
10/09/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0...........+5.00..............+10.00
10/08/2017.................3 - 3.................-1.50.............2 - 4...........-12.00...............-13.50
10/05/2017.................0 - 0 - 1.............0.00.............1 - 0...........+5.00................+ 5.00
10/02/2017.................1 - 0................+5.00.............0 - 1............-5.50.................- 0.50
10/01/2017.................4 - 4.................-2.00.............2 - 2............- 1.00.................- 3.00


Totals......................16 - 15 - 3............-2.50...........16 - 16...........-8.00................- 10.50


Sunday Night 2 Team Parlay...........................0 - 3..................................-15.00
.
Thursday Night 2 Team Parlay........................1 - 0..................................+12.50


Thursday Night Game of the month................1 - 0..................................+5.00


Monday Night 2 Team Parlay..........................1 - 1 .................................+7.50

 

[CNOTES]

Tuesday’s six-pack
— World Series has been tied 2-2 42 times; the Game 5 winner won 28 of those 42 World Series.
— Knicks 116, Denver 110— Porzingis had 38, Knicks are fun to watch. I wonder why?
— Celtics 108, Spurs 94— San Antonio lost its last three games.
— Warriors 141, Clippers 113— Game was 74-57 at half; Clippers had been #1 in defense.
— Chiefs 29, Broncos 19— Broncos are now 0-3 on the road; their QB’s are substandard.
— Happy birthday to former LSU hoop coach Dale Brown, who turns 82 today.


**************************


Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……


13) New England traded backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo to the 49ers last night for a 2nd-round pick next April, but the 49ers’ 2nd-round pick figures to be the 33rd pick, pretty much a first round pick. Patriots don’t have a backup QB on their roster right now; would they be the team that signs Colin Kaepernick?


12) Following Twitter during the baseball game Sunday night was funny; people are so fickle, they overreact quickly and in a 13-12, 10-inning game, there is a lot to comment on.


11) One thing the great baseball game obscured was a pretty good football game in Detroit; Lions were putrid in red zone, scoring 9 points on five drives. Steelers’ JoJo Schuster-Smith caught a 97-yard touchdown pass, right after the Lions were stuffed on a goal-line stand by Pittsburgh.


10) Astros’ payroll this year is $124,343,900, broken down this way:
— Justin Verlander makes $28M a year, but he was only in Houston for a month, so his money isn’t included in the $124M figure you see up above.
— Other four starting pitchers made a combined $17,239,500 this season.
— Catcher Brian McCann makes $17M, DH Carlos Beltran makes $16M
— Yuli Gurriel, Josh Reddick made a combined $27.4M this season.
— Altuve/Springer/Correa/Bregman earned a combined $9.661,900 this season.


At some point, Astros have to shed some of these hitters and add pitching, or else we’re in for an endless stream of 13-12 playoff games. Gurriel/Reddick’s contracts seem excessive, Altuve is going to break the bank when he hits free agency (his agent is Scott Boras)


Seems logical that out of Correa/Springer/Bregman, two of them will wind up elsewhere.


Verlander is on the books for 2018 and 2019, both at $28M a season.


9) Detroit Lions gained 482 yards Sunday night but didn’t score a TD; only 1994 Bengals (496 yards vs Seattle) and ’86 49ers (501 yards) gained more yards without scoring a touchdown.


8) Washington Nationals named Dave Martinez manager; he has been Joe Maddon’s right-hand man for several years……….Phillies named Gabe Kapler skipper- both guys are first-time major leaguer managers.


7) ESPN’s Mike Breen also does play-by-play for the Knicks on MSG Network; he is the best at what he does because he is fair and smart.


Monday night, Knicks’ Doug McDermott took a 3-pointer in transition with 0:06.9 left in first quarter; he made it, but Denver came down an hit a 3-pointer of their own at the buzzer to end the quarter. Breen simply said: “That is why coaches like to hold the ball to take the last shot of a quarter, so the other team can’t score.”


6) Boston Celtics got an $8.4M salary cap exemption because of Gordon Hayward’s injury; they have to use it by March 10.


5) College basketball starts next week; Missouri Valley Conference is going downhill, with both Creighton/Wichita State jumping ship in recent years. Missouri State/Illinois State are expected to be the Valley’s frontrunners this winter.


4) Houston Texans traded disgruntled LT Duane Brown to Seattle, for CB Jerome Lane, a 5th round pick next year and a 2nd round draft pick in 2019.


3) You wonder why baseball teams coddle pitchers? Because they only last so long— look at the career of Fernando Valenzuela— from age 19-25, Valenzuela was 99-68, with an ERA of 2.94- he threw 257+ innings five years in a row. He was box office gold, for sure.


From age 26-36, he went 74-85, with an ERA of 4.55, bouncing around between five teams. You only have so many pitches in your arm. Valenzuela threw 149 pitches in a playoff game when he was 20. If that happened today (it wouldn’t), heads would roll.


2) Ticket brokers apparently own 15,000 tickets to both Games 6-7 of the World Series; should Houston win Game 6, those brokers would lose out of a potential $20M in profits with no Game 7 to benefit from.


1) RIP Lewis D’Antoni, 103, who passed away this weekend; the father of Rockets coach Mike and Marshall coach Dan D’Antoni, Lewis D’Antoni was a coach himself— I saw him interviewed in the stands at a Marshall game a couple years ago, when he was 101. Lot of energy even then; he lived a full life. RIP, sir.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday’s six-pack


NFL trends with Week 9 approaching…….


— Jets are 17-7 vs spread in last 24 games as a home underdog.


— Chiefs are 10-3 vs spread in their last 13 games.


— Oakland covered once in its last six games.


— 49ers covered nine of their last 11 divisional games.


— Houston is 10-3-1 in last 14 games as a home favorite.


— Eagles covered nine of their last eleven games.


***************************


Thursday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……..


13) This is what it looks like when an NBA player works at his game:


In the first eight years of his career, Brook Lopez shot a combined 3-31 shooting behind the arc; he is a 7-foot tall center, so that makes perfect sense. You don’t want 7-footers shooting 3’s, you want them closer to the basket.


Then last year, out of nowhere, Lopez was 134-487 (34.6%) behind the arc. Good for him— he worked on his game, and developed a 3-point shot. Still not sure why you would want him that far from the basket, but it makes pick/pops an option.


Lopez is also a career 79.4% shooter from the foul line, so good for him- he works at his job.


12) Greg Anthony/Steve Smith were doing analysis on the Pistons/Lakers game Tuesday, from the NBA TV studios; they were killing Detroit PG Reggie Jackson for not passing the ball enough, then praising his backup Ish Smith when he came in the game.


Don’t hear a lot of criticism like that; Pistons had just beaten Golden State Sunday, but losing to the Lakers wasn’t good. Detroit looked flat.


11) I was very surprised to learn that Toronto PG Kyle Lowry makes $30M a year; hope he buys his agent a Ferrari or a Maserati every Christmas. Toronto has never been in the NBA Finals and Lowry makes $30M a year? Good for him. The NBA is very, very profitable.


10) Brock Osweiler is starting at QB for the Broncos Sunday in Philadelphia.


9) Patriots signed former 49ers QB Brian Hoyer to be Tom Brady’s back-up. Green Bay also tried to sign Hoyer.


8) Cornerback Jeremy Lane failed his physical with the Houston Texans, so he gets sent back to the Seahawks, and the 5th-round draft pick Seattle sent to Houston in the Duane Brown trade becomes a 3rd-round pick.


7) Georgetown’s pre-conference basketball schedule doesn’t have one team on it ranked in the preseason top 25; their pre-conference schedule last year had four top 25 teams on it.


6) wish.com has a patch on the Lakers’ uniforms this year; they’re an on-line shopping site. They said on Pistons-Lakers telecast that wish.com is paying $15M for the patch to be worn this year.


5) Interesting Fact of the Day: Cleveland Browns were going to give Cincinnati more for AJ McCarron that what the Patriots got for Jimmy Garoppolo.


4) Tuesday night’s World Series Game 6 got the highest TV rating of any World Series game since 2009, so thats good for baseball.


3) This was first time since 2001-2 that consecutive World Series went to a 7th game.


2) There are rumors swirling that if the Buccaneers fire Dirk Koetter, they might bring Jon Gruden back to coach in Tampa Bay, which would be more than a little weird.


1- Astros 5, Dodgers 1— In June of 2014, Sports Illustrated had an issue with a cover that said “2017 World Champions” with a picture of George Springer batting in the Astros’ throwback rainbow jersey.


From 2011-13, Houston went 162-324; they were incredibly bad, but they parlayed all that losing into players like Altuve-Correa-Springer-Bregman; now they’re World Champs, winning one of the most interesting World Series in recent memory.