Cnotes 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[CNOTES]

Monday’s six-pack


Six most popular picks for Week 7 in the Westgate Super Contest:


6) Washington Redskins, +5 (681)


5) San Francisco 49ers, +6.5 (687)- L


4) Denver Broncos, +1.5 (729)- L


3) Carolina Panthers, -3 (+750)- L


2) Green Bay Packers, +5.5 (803)- L


1) Cincinnati Bengals, +5.5 (810)- L


Season record of top 6 picks: 15-26. No bueno


************************


Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday


Titans 12, Browns 9 OT— Not a great week for offense; seven teams failed to score an offensive TD, five others scored only one TD on offense. Total yardage in this game: 284-269 Browns, but they threw three INTs and Kizer was benched again, this time for Cody Kessler. At one point, Cleveland declined a face mask penalty on the Titans, leaving Tennessee with a 4th-and-1, but then the Browns jumped offside, which led to a Titan FG, which was the margin of victory.


Memo to the Ivy League nitwit who runs the Browns: Draft a bleeping quarterback!!!!


Jaguars 27, Colts 0— Total yardage was 518-232 Jaguars- they were -2 in turnovers and still jogged to an easy win, running ball for 188 yards. Colts have been outscored 134-44 in second half of game; now that Andrew Luck has had a setback and may not return this year, hard to imagine Chuck Pagano won’t get fired. Jaguars averaged 11.8 yards per pass attempt.


Steelers 29, Bengals 14— Game was 14-14 with 7:12 left in the half; from that point on, Steelers had ball seven times, kicked five FGs and won going away. Pittsburgh ran a really cool fake punt, snapping ball to the up-back, who passed the ball to the gunner on the right sideline— never saw that play before. Steelers scored only 38 points on their last 11 red zone drives, a red flag. Cincy is 1-6 vs spread in last seven games as a road underdog.


Vikings 24, Ravens 16—- Baltimore lost 4 of its last 5 games after a 2-0 start; they scored total of five TDs on 56 drives in those games. Stuff I read on the Internet this week from knowledgeable NFL writers blamed the Raven WR’s, not Flacco— I blame whoever hired Marty Mornhinweg as offensive coordinator— the guy is awful. Vikings are now 15-5 as a home favorite under Zimmer. Will Vikings turn to Teddy Bridgewater or stick with Case Keenum at QB?


Dolphins 31, Jets 28— Second week in row Jets had 14-point lead but lost; second week in a row Dolphins trailed by 14+ points but won. Cutler got hurt; backup QB Matt Moore was 13-21/188 and led Miami to a comeback win. Jets’ QB McCown threw an awful INT with 0:39 left, giving Dolphins the ball on the Jets’ 27- they kicked winning FG with 0:22 left, ending a 6-game skid against their AFC East rivals.


Bills 30, Buccaneers 27— Buffalo blew 17-6 3rd quarter lead, but recovered a fumble on the Bucs’ 33-yard line with 2:20 left- they kicked winning FG with 0:14 left. Winston threw for 378 yards but Tampa Bay turned ball over three times— Buffalo is +10 in turnovers this season and is 4-2. Rookie TE Howard has 6 catches for 98 yards on 6 targets for Tampa Bay


Bears 17, Panthers 3— One of strangest boxscores I’ve ever seen; rookie safety Eddie Jackson became first player ever to score two defensive TDs of 75+ yards in a game, scoring on a fumble return and an INT return off a tipped ball. Chicago then sat on the lead; Trubisky was 2-5/94 yards passing the first half, threw only 7 passes in whole game. Total yardage was 293-153 Carolina; Bears had only five first downs the whole game, but won by two TD’s. Go figure.


Saints 26, Packers 17— Line moved roughly nine points because of Rodgers’ injury; Hundley was 12-25/87 passing in his first NFL start. Brees was picked off on his first two drives, but Saints scored two TD’s, two FG’s on their last four drives. Packers ran 21 play for 65 yards and only 3 points in second half. New Orleans scored 13 TD’s on their last 43 drives.


Rams 33, Cardinals 0— Arizona missed a short FG on first drive, things got much worse from there; Carson Palmer broke his left arm, could be out for year. Stanton/Gabbert are Arizona’s backup QB’s.


One of the unexpected perks of writing in this space every day is the chance to meet some great people. Made couple of new friends from Canada this weekend; they stopped in Albany on their way to Foxwoods Casino in Connecticut. Had a meal and lot of fun conversation— I’ve made new friends in Indiana, New Jersey, Las Vegas and now Canada from this site. Good stuff.


Cowboys 40, 49ers 10— Dallas ran ball for 265 yards, had 14-yard edge in field position, as they pounded the 49ers coming off their bye. Third straight game Cowboys scored 30+ points; they recovered three SF fumbles, are now 8-3 vs spread in last 11 games as a road favorite.


49ers are 0-7, but 5-2 vs spread; they’ve got a rookie QB starting now, were outgained 501-290 in this game- four of their last five games went over the total.


Seahawks 24, Giants 7— Seattle had 11-yard edge in field position, held Giants to 46 yards on ground in game Big Blue led 7-3 at the half. Giants’ only TD drive was 17 yards after a turnover; they missed a 47-yard FG when Seahawks led 10-7.


Seahawks’ offensive players were screaming at each other on sideline in first half; Doug Baldwin pushed an assistant coach who tried to intervene, but all of that was probably forgotten when a trick play resulted in a 38-yard TD pass that put Seattle up 17-7 with 9:34 left to play.


Chargers 21, Broncos 0— Chargers won their third game in a row after an 0-4 start; they ran a punt back for a TD for their first score, then had three takeaways in a game where total yardage was 251-242, Denver. Broncos are 0-2 on road, scoring one TD on 23 drives in games against Bills/Chargers; this was only Bolts’ third win in last 14 games against Denver.


Patriots 23, Falcons 7— Atlanta had ball in red zone four times, scored only once, on a TD that made score 23-7 with 4:09 left- they had a short FG blocked, clanked a shorter FG off upright. Falcons lost their last three games after a 3-0 start; luckily for them, there had been only one divisional game played in NFC South so far, so the division race is still up for grabs.


This turned into a fog game in second half, as if the Falcons playing under the cloud of last year’s Super Bowl wasn’t bad enough.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Monday, October 23


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Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Redskins at Eagles
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Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 49)


When the Philadelphia Eagles step onto the field for Monday's prime-time clash against the visiting Washington Redskins, they will own the best record in the NFL and have a chance to take total control of the NFC East. The Eagles have ripped off four consecutive victories to open a two-game lead on the Redskins as they vie for a sweep of the season series.


Philadelphia won its first three games last season under rookie quarterback Carson Wentz before going into a tailspin, but the team seems better equipped to continue its success this time around. "Having a year together with this team, under Coach, myself, everything, we're just built differently," Wentz told reporters. "We have a different character makeup in that locker room, and we just have a bunch of guys that believe that, no matter the situation, we can find a way to win a ballgame." Washington, which won five straight in the series before dropping a 30-17 decision to the Eagles in the season opener, held on for a 26-24 victory over winless San Francisco last weekend after building an early 17-point lead. The Redskins' only other loss was a 29-20 setback at then-unbeaten Kansas City, which also handed Philadelphia its only defeat.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Redskins (0) - Eagles (-3) + home field (-3) = Eagles -6

LINE HISTORY: The Eagles opened as 5.5-home chalk and early money on the road team has brought that number down a full-point to 4.5, where it currently stands. The total hit the betting board at 48.5 and has been bet up at an even 49.

INJURY REPORT:


Washington - OT Trent Williams (Probable, Knee), LB Ryan Anderson (Probable, Back), LB Mason Foster (Questionable, Shoulder), G Tyler Catalina (Questionable, Concussion), RB Rob Kelley (Questionable, Ankle), S Deshazor Everett (Questionable, Hamstring), CB Bashaud Breeland (Questionable, Knee), S Stefan McClure (Questionable, Knee), CB Josh Norman (Doubtful, Ribs), OT Jonathan Allen I-R, Foot), K Dustin Hopkins (I-R, Hip).


Philadelphia - DT Beau Allen (Probable, Foot), DT Destiny Vaeao (Probable, Wrist), DE Brandon Graham (Probable, Shoulder), LB Jordan Hicks (Probable, Ankle), RB Wendall Smallwood (Probable, Knee), OT Lance Johnson (Probable, Concussion), DT Tim Jernigan (Questionable, Ankle), CB Ronald Darby (Questionable, Ankle), S Jaylen Watkins (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Nigel Bradham (Questionable, Upper Body), WR Mack Hollins (Questionable, Leg)

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U): Quarterback Kirk Cousins had his worst performance in the season opener, but he is coming off a strong three-game stretch and leads the NFC with a 106.4 passer rating. Running back Rob Kelley is dealing with an ankle injury, which could mean the bulk of playing time will go to rookie Samaje Perine and Chris Thompson, who already has recorded two 100-yard receiving performances and made four catches for 52 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. With wideouts Terrelle Pryor and Jamison Crowder continuing to struggle, the tight-end tandem of Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis has combined for 29 catches. Linebacker Preston Smith has registered 4.5 of the team's 15 sacks, including one in the season opener.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Wentz entered the weekend fifth in passing yards (1,584) with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions, and during the four-game winning streak has thrown nine scoring passes against only one pick. Moving to the slot has provided a boost for third-year wideout Nelson Agholor, who has recorded four catches and a TD reception in each of the last two games. However, Wentz's top target is tight end Zach Ertz, who hauled in a pair of touchdown passes last week and has been a nemesis for the Redskins - evidenced by an eight-catch, 93-yard performance in Week 1. Philadelphia ranks No. 1 in the league against the run, allowing an average of 65.7 yards, but is surrendering a generous 273.5 passing yards.

TRENDS:


* Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.


* Over is 8-0 in Redskins last 8 games following a ATS loss.


* Over is 9-2 in Eagles last 11 vs. NFC East.


* Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home fave Eagles are picking up 55 percent of the action on the spread and Over is grabbing 64 percent of the totals selections.




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[CNOTES]

MNF - Redskins at Eagles
October 22, 2017


LAST WEEK

The Redskins (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) built a commanding 17-0 lead over the winless 49ers, but San Francisco scored 17 unanswered points to even the game at 17-17. Washington scored the next nine points, including a Kirk Cousins seven-yard touchdown run to take a 26-17 advantage. San Francisco cut the deficit to 26-24 and had an opportunity to win it on the final drive, but came up short.


Washington failed to cash as 12-point favorites in the two-point triumph, its first opportunity laying points this season. Cousins produced a 330-yard effort through the air, while throwing two touchdown passes and running for the game-winning score. Running back Chris Thompson hauled in his second receiving touchdown in three weeks, while racking up 138 all-purpose yards. Washington dropped to 5-5 ATS in its last 10 games in the favorite role, including 0-3 ATS in its past three as a favorite at FedEx Field.


The class of the NFC currently resides in Philadelphia as the Eagles (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) won their fourth straight game, 28-23 at Carolina. The Eagles overcame a 10-3 deficit led by a pair of touchdown strikes from Carson Wentz to tight end Zach Ertz to take an 18-10 halftime advantage. Wentz hooked up with Nelson Agholor on a 24-yard connection to start the fourth quarter to give Philadelphia a commanding 28-16 cushion as the Eagles held on for the five-point win.


Philadelphia covered as three-point underdogs, while Wentz delivered multi-touchdown passes for the fourth time this season. The 222-yard effort was the second-lowest total for Wentz throwing this season, but the Eagles improved to 3-1 away from Lincoln Financial Field after winning only one road game last season.

LINCING IT UP


Since Wentz took over as quarterback of the Eagles in 2016, Philadelphia owns an 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS at Lincoln Financial Field, including a 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS record this season. The Eagles have compiled a 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS mark as a home favorite in this span, as the only loss in this role came to the Packers in Week 12 last season. The offense topped the 27-point mark in both home wins this season over the Giants and Cardinals, while finished UNDER the total in seven of the past 10 home contests.


HIGHWAY BARKERS


Under Jay Gruden, the Redskins have profited the last few seasons in the role of a road underdog. Since December 2015, Washington has put together a solid 8-2 ATS and 6-3-1 SU record in the past 10 when receiving points away from FedEx Field. One of those SU/ATS losses came at Kansas City in the late burn of a 29-20 defeat in Week 4. After the Chiefs took a 23-20 lead with four seconds remaining as 6 ½-point favorites, Kansas City recovered a fumble on the final play of the game and returned it for a score to break the heart of Washington backers.

PREVIOUS MEETING


The Redskins won five consecutive matchups with the Eagles from 2014 through last season. However, the Eagles snapped that skid with a 30-17 triumph in this season’s opener at FedEx Field as two-point favorites. Philadelphia jumped out to a 13-0 lead behind a pair of touchdown passes by Wentz before Washington scored 14 unanswered points. Caleb Sturgis knocked down three field goals to give Philadelphia a 22-17 advantage before a late Fletcher Cox fumble return for a score put the game out of reach. Wentz began his second season with a solid 307 yard, two-touchdown performance, while Ertz and Agholor combined for 14 catches and 179 yards.


Washington has won each of its past two visits to Lincoln Financial Field, including a 27-22 victory as two-point favorites last December. Thompson scored the go-ahead touchdown with under two minutes remaining to off-set 314 yards throwing from Wentz. Cousins only threw for 234 yards, but led Washington on a pair of touchdown drives in the third quarter to erase a 13-7 deficit.


UNDER THE LIGHTS


Since 2013, the Eagles have put together a solid 5-2 SU/ATS record in Monday night action, including a split in Wentz’s rookie campaign. Philadelphia has won two of its past three home Monday nighters, but dropped a 14-point decision to Green Bay last season.


Washington is notoriously horrible on Mondays by posting a putrid 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS record since 2008, including the Week 4 setback at Kansas City. Ten of those losses came at home, while the only road victory in this stretch came at Dallas as a nine-point underdog, 20-17 in 2014.


Favorites have dominated on Mondays this season by going 6-1 SU and 4-2-1 ATS record, as the only underdog to win outright is the Lions back in Week 2 against the Giants. The OVER has hit in four of seven Monday games, while the OVER is 11-8 in primetime action heading into Week 7.


HANDICAPPER’S CORNER


VegasInsider.com expert Joe Nelson points out that Philadelphia’s defense has helped lift them to a 5-1 mark, but teams have thrown on Doug Pederson’s squad, “The Eagles are ninth in the NFL in scoring defense, but 20th in the league in total defense with great run defense numbers but vulnerability against the pass, surrendering 273 passing yards per game, fourth most in the league. Philadelphia’s only loss came to a now 5-2 Chiefs team on the road in a competitive game, but four of five wins came in very close games including narrowly beating Giants and Chargers teams that are a combined 3-9.”


Nelson says this game will go far in determining the NFC East champion, “With the Giants likely already out of the running and Dallas on pace to fall far off last season’s pace, this game will play a huge role in deciding the NFC East champion. Philadelphia could grab a significant division lead with a win this week while securing a key tiebreaker with a series sweep and a 3-0 start in division play. The Eagles have the 0-6 49ers up next on the schedule for a great opportunity to emerge as the clear NFC leader at the midpoint of the season.”


From a trend standpoint, Vince Akins points out a system that favors the OVER as it relates to Cousins, “The Redskins are 12-0 OU since Nov 15, 2015 coming off a game where Kirk Cousins threw at least 35 passes.” Washington barely cashed the OVER in its only opportunity in this spot in Week 2 at Los Angeles, while the Redskins own a solid 9-2-1 SU and 10-2 ATS record in this position.


BOOKMAKER’S TAKE


Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu says the public is all over the Eagles on Monday, “They always have a big public following, and MNF will command much of it. Right now, the square wagers are weighted toward the Philly side 80-20. That said, the early sharp action came on Washington. We do have smart money on both sides, and it wouldn't surprise me if they are on the Eagles when it's all said and done as well.”

 

[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 7
October 23, 2017


Overall Notes


NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 7 RESULTS


Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-3
Against the Spread 8-4-2


Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-5
Against the Spread 8-4-2


Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-8


The largest underdogs to win straight up
Bears (+3, ML +130) vs. Panthers, 17-3
Raiders (+3, ML +135) vs. Chiefs, 31-30

The largest favorite to cover
Cowboys (-6.5) at 49ers, 40-10
Vikings (-5) vs. Ravens, 24-16
Three tied at (-4)

Three Bagels


-- The Arizona Cardinals, Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts were each shut out in Week 7. The number equaled the number of total shutouts for the entire 2016 season, and it was the first time since Dec. 16, 2012 that three teams were blanked in the same weekend in the National Football League. Points were also at a premium in the Tennessee Titans-Cleveland Browns game, which featured seven field goals and no touchdowns. The game between the Carolina Panthers-Chicago Bears featured 20 total points, but just two field-goal drives by the two offenses, while the Bears defense accounted for a pair of defensive scores. In fact, Bears rookie S Eddie Jackson recorded a 75-yard fumble return for touchdown and a 76-yard interception return for score, becoming the first rookie in NFL history to posted two 75-yard defensive touchdowns in a season. He is also the first player in franchise history with two defensive touchdowns in a game since 1948, and the first NFL player to turn the trick since 2012.


Odd-Week Winners


-- If you've been following along the past few week, you'll know that the Jacksonville Jaguars continue to win and covered in odd-numbered weeks, and lose and post non-covers in even-numbered weeks. The trend continued with their 27-0 road victory in Indianapolis. The streak is uncanny, as they are now a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS in odd-numbered weeks, and 0-3 SU/ATS in even-numbered weeks. We'll see if the betting or football gods are confused when the Jags are off in Week 8. They resume play in Week 9 against the Cincinnati Bengals when they'll try to continue their odd-week success.
Total Recall


-- Sunday Night Football was not the shootout everyone expected. In a rematch of Super Bowl LI, the New England Patriots hosted the Atlanta Falcons in what was supposed to be a high-scoring affair, with a total closing at 57. Like last season's championship game, neither team scored in the first quarter. However, a fog rolled into Foxboro, and defense also reigned supreme in a surprisingly defensive battle. Unlike the Super Bowl, there was no monster comeback or overtime, either, as the Patriots won 23-7 to cover a three-point number.


-- The game with the lowest total on the board -- Baltimore-Minnesota (37.5) ended up inching 'over' in the worst way possible. With no time remaining in regulation, and the game already decided, the Ravens scored a touchdown on the final play of the game, falling 24-16. While the line for the game wasn't affected, although perhaps a teaser or two could have been ruined, the total was flipped for the worst bad beat of Week 7.


-- The Tampa Bay-Buffalo (46.5) game appeared to be headed for an 'under' result, with the Bills leading 17-13 after three quarters. With 13:31 to go, the Bills got a 52-yard field goal from Stephen Hauschka to push their lead to 20-13. The game was tied on a 33-yard touchdown at the 10:08 mark, as the Bucs knotted the game 20-20. Things were looking pretty good for the next six-plus minutes until turnovers tilted the field. The Bucs scored with 3:14 to official push the total over, 27-20. The Bills then added 10 points in the final 2:28 to not only snatch a win, but change a Bucs cover into a push at most shops.


-- The 'Over' is 12-10 (54.5%) through the first 22 primetime games of the 2017 season with Monday's game between the Washington Redskins-Philadelphia Eagles (49) went pending. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report


-- Cardinals QB Carson Palmer (arm) suffered a broken arm in the game against the Rams in London and he will require corrective surgery, costing him at least eight weeks of playing time, if not the remainder of the season.


-- Dolphins QB Jay Cutler (chest) was forced from the game against the Jets due to a chest injury, although it might have been addition by subtraction. QB Matt Moore rallied his team back from 14 down for the 31-28 victory. Reports indicate Cutler will not be ready for the Week 9 game on Thursday in Baltimore, so Moore is expected to start.


Looking Ahead


-- The Panthers and Buccaneers will square off in Tampa next Sunday, and the Bucs opened as a two-point favorite. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS over their past six road games, but that loss came in their dismal performance in Week 7 against the Bears. The Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their past six against NFC foes, 5-15-1 ATS in their past 21 at home against teams with a winning road record and 0-4 ATS in their past four at home against Cam Newton and the Cats. The Panthers have covered six of the past eight meetings, while the road team is 5-1 ATS in the past six in this series.


-- The Cowboys and Redskins will meet in the nation's capital, with the Cowboys looking to keep it rolling. They're 2-4 ATS over their past six road games, but they were able to cover in San Francisco in Week 7. They're also 4-8 ATS over their past 12 against NFC foes. The Redskins are 1-4 ATS over their past five home games, and the home team has failed to cover in six straight in this series. The underdog is 29-9 ATS across the past 38 in this series, too. Total bettors will be interested to know the 'under' is 7-3-1 in the past 11 meetings at FedEx Field.


-- In the third divisional matchup of Week 8, the Broncos and Chiefs will battle at Arrowhead on Monday night. The Chiefs are coming off a deflating 31-30 loss in the waning seconds of Thursday Night Football in Oakland, while the Broncos scored as many points as you and I did in Carson against the Chargers, losing 21-0. The Broncos are just 2-6 ATS over their past eight road games, and they're 2-6-2 ATS in their past 10 games on Monday night. The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their past seven inside the division, while going 5-2 ATS in their past seven on Monday. The road team has cashed in six of the past seven in this series, with the Broncos going 6-2 ATS in their past eight appearances at Arrowhead. The over is 3-0-1 in the past four meetings, while the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the past six in this series.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Standings

NATIONAL CONFERENCE - NORTH
Team Win Loss Ties Percent PF PA Home Away Division
Minnesota Vikings 5 2 0 0.714 146 119 4-1-0 1-1-0 2-1-0
Green Bay Packers 4 3 0 0.571 164 161 3-1-0 1-2-0 1-1-0
Detroit Lions 3 3 0 0.500 161 149 1-2-0 2-1-0 1-0-0
Chicago Bears 3 4 0 0.429 122 151 2-2-0 1-2-0 0-2-0

NATIONAL CONFERENCE - EAST
Team Win Loss Ties Percent PF PA Home Away Division
Philadelphia Eagles 5 1 0 0.833 165 122 2-0-0 3-1-0 2-0-0
Washington Redskins 3 2 0 0.600 117 113 2-1-0 1-1-0 0-1-0
Dallas Cowboys 3 3 0 0.500 165 142 1-2-0 2-1-0 1-0-0
New York Giants 1 6 0 0.143 112 156 0-3-0 1-3-0 0-2-0

NATIONAL CONFERENCE - SOUTH
Team Win Loss Ties Percent PF PA Home Away Division
New Orleans Saints 4 2 0 0.667 171 133 1-1-0 3-1-0 1-0-0
Carolina Panthers 4 3 0 0.571 131 139 1-2-0 3-1-0 0-1-0
Atlanta Falcons 3 3 0 0.500 128 132 1-2-0 2-1-0 0-0-0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2 4 0 0.333 145 151 2-1-0 0-3-0 0-0-0

NATIONAL CONFERENCE - WEST
Team Win Loss Ties Percent PF PA Home Away Division
Los Angeles Rams 5 2 0 0.714 212 138 2-2-0 3-0-0 2-1-0
Seattle Seahawks 4 2 0 0.667 134 94 2-0-0 2-2-0 2-0-0
Arizona Cardinals 3 4 0 0.429 119 191 2-1-0 1-3-0 1-1-0
San Francisco 49ers 0 7 0 0.000 123 186 0-3-0 0-4-0 0-3-0

AMERICAN CONFERENCE - NORTH
Team Win Loss Ties Percent PF PA Home Away Division
Pittsburgh Steelers 5 2 0 0.714 147 116 2-1-0 3-1-0 3-0-0
Baltimore Ravens 3 4 0 0.429 130 148 1-2-0 2-2-0 2-1-0
Cincinnati Bengals 2 4 0 0.333 98 112 1-2-0 1-2-0 1-2-0
Cleveland Browns 0 7 0 0.000 103 169 0-4-0 0-3-0 0-3-0

AMERICAN CONFERENCE - EAST
Team Win Loss Ties Percent PF PA Home Away Division
New England Patriots 5 2 0 0.714 195 166 2-2-0 3-0-0 1-0-0
Buffalo Bills 4 2 0 0.667 119 101 3-0-0 1-2-0 1-0-0
Miami Dolphins 4 2 0 0.667 92 112 2-1-0 2-1-0 1-1-0
New York Jets 3 4 0 0.429 137 161 2-1-0 1-3-0 1-3-0

AMERICAN CONFERENCE - SOUTH
Team Win Loss Ties Percent PF PA Home Away Division
Tennessee Titans 4 3 0 0.571 158 173 2-1-0 2-2-0 2-1-0
Jacksonville Jaguars 4 3 0 0.571 183 110 1-2-0 3-1-0 2-1-0
Houston Texans 3 3 0 0.500 177 147 2-2-0 1-1-0 1-1-0
Indianapolis Colts 2 5 0 0.286 119 222 2-2-0 0-3-0 0-2-0

AMERICAN CONFERENCE - WEST
Team Win Loss Ties Percent PF PA Home Away Division
Kansas City Chiefs 5 2 0 0.714 207 161 2-1-0 3-1-0 1-1-0
Denver Broncos 3 3 0 0.500 108 118 3-1-0 0-2-0 2-1-0
Los Angeles Chargers 3 4 0 0.429 137 131 1-3-0 2-1-0 2-2-0
Oakland Raiders 3 4 0 0.429 155 156 2-2-0 1-2-0 1-2-0

Updated Mon Oct 23 11:34 AM EDT

 

[CNOTES]

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Monday, October 23


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WASHINGTON (3 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 1) - 10/23/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 4-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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Monday, October 23


WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA
Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games




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Monday's game
Redskins (3-2) @ Eagles (5-1)— Redskins lost their last six weeknight games. Eagles won six of last nine weeknight games. Eagles (-1) won 30-17 at Washington in Week 1, snapping 5-game series skid; Redskins won 38-24/27-22 in last two visits here. Each defense scored a TD in that first meeting. Philly had extra prep time after Thursday win in Charlotte; they’ve won four games in row, covering last three. Eagles are 2-0 at home, winning by 3-27 points- only one of their last four wins was by more than five points. Redskins won three of last four games, are 1-1 on road (over 1-0-1)- they scored 26+ points in their three wins, 17-20 in losses. Washington is 8-3 vs spread in last 11 games as a road underdog.


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Monday, October 23


Washington @ Philadelphia


Game 477-478
October 23, 2017 @ 8:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Washington
137.238
Philadelphia
136.163
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 5
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+5); Over

 

[CNOTES]

Monday Night Best Bets:


MONDAY, OCTOBER 23
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


WAS at PHI 08:30 PM


PHI -5.5 *****


U 48.5 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Wentz tosses 4 TDs, Eagles beat Redskins 34-24
October 23, 2017


PHILADELPHIA (AP) Carson Wentz tossed four touchdown passes, and the Philadelphia Eagles overcame losing nine-time Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters in a 34-24 win over the Washington Redskins on Monday night.


Wentz threw for 268 yards and ran for a career-best 63 after a shaky start to lead the NFL-best Eagles (6-1) to their fifth straight win. But the victory was costly because Peters was carted off the field with a knee injury in the third quarter.


Kirk Cousins had 303 yards passing and three TDs for the Redskins (3-3).


The Eagles went three-and-out three times in their first four drives and had only 57 total yards before Wentz hit Mack Hollins in stride with a perfect 64-yard TD pass to tie it at 10.


That got the offense rolling.


Wentz connected with Zach Ertz for 46 yards on the next series and found him again for a 4-yard TD pass to make it 17-10.


After getting the second-half kickoff, the Eagles drove 86 yards for another touchdown. Peters was injured during the series, and fans chanted his name while teammates surrounded the cart.


Wentz finished the drive off with a play that Peters would appreciate.


While being hit by two defenders and falling forward, Wentz lofted a 9-yard TD pass to Corey Clement.


Wentz fired a 10-yard TD pass to Nelson Agholor to expand the lead to 31-17. Wentz kept that drive alive by escaping a sack and running 17 yards on third-and-8.


Cousins tossed a 7-yard touchdown pass to Chris Thompson to give the Redskins a 10-3 lead. He connected with Jordan Reed on a 5-yard TD to cut the deficit to 24-17 and threw a 12-yard pass to Reed to cap the scoring.


The Eagles were penalized on four straight plays to start their first possession before Wentz was intercepted by Quinton Dunbar on a deep pass to Torrey Smith on second-and-31.


Philadelphia swept Washington for the first time since 2013 and has a commanding lead in the NFC East. The Cowboys and Redskins are tied for second place.


INJURIES


Redskins: LT Trent Williams (knee), CB Fabian Moreau (hamstring), RG Brandon Scherff (knee) and LB Preston Smith (groin) were hurt.


Eagles: LB Jordan Hicks (ankle) got hurt on the first series. Peters was replaced by Halapoulivaati Vaitai.


MIA


Redskins WR Terrelle Pryor had two catches for 14 yards and didn't start.


HEY ROOKIE


Eagles first-round pick Derek Barnett had his first two-sack game.


STREAK OVER


Eagles kicker Jake Elliott connected from 50 and 42 yards before he missed from 45 yards, ending his streak at 12 straight field goals. Four of those were from beyond 50 yards, including a 61-yarder.


HALL OF FAME


Six-time Pro Bowl kicker David Akers was inducted into the Eagles' Hall of Fame at halftime. Akers is the team's all-time leader in regular-season points (1,323) and games (188) and postseason points (134) and games (19).

UP NEXT


Redskins: Host the Dallas Cowboys (3-3).


Eagles: Host the San Francisco 49ers (0-7).

 

[CNOTES]

Books win small in Week 7
October 23, 2017


You know the Las Vegas sports books have bettors right where they want them when favorites go 9-2-2 against-the-spread in Sunday's NFL Week 7 action and they're still able to come away with a win. After beating the public up a little bit the past weeks where the favorites didn't do as well, bettors were scratching theirs heads with confusion of who to bet, at least those that still had money left in their pockets to bet.


"It was an okay day, but not a day of big decisions while we also got a push on the Bills and Dolphins," said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. "Bears was a sharp side that cashed but the other moves on Packers, Giants, Ravens and Broncos went down. Public parlays and parlays cards did well with fan favorites like the Steelers, Seahawks, Jaguars and Cowboys."


MGM Resorts 10 books along the strip had a similar story citing handle was down as well.


"Fair day, we didn't have any real big decisions," Mirage sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback. "We won two of out four biggest decisions, we won with the Chargers late, but lost with the Cowboys. It was a nice day, but nothing great."

Had it been Week 1 and the same type of favorite ratio with all the excited cash churning through the bet windows the books would have got buried. Anyway, the Chargers won their third straight game after starting 0-3. They beat the Broncos 21-0 to give them their first win at their new stadium in Carson, CA. The stadium was was filled with fans wearing the color orange.


The books even got a break with the lowly Browns (+6) covering a spread. They still lost, this time in overtime at home -- 12-9, but it turned out to be the most bet game of the week at William Hill's 107 sports books across the state. They reported 16 percent of their overall cash bet on the games during the week to be on the Titans-Browns and 84 percent of the cash taken on the game was on the Titans.


One team the bettors were really correct about was the Cowboys laying 6.5 at San Francisco and cover easily in a 40-10 win, which also got the Over (47.5) to cash -- both popular two-team parlays hooked up together. The 49ers had been gritty with covers most of the season, but the Cowboys looked Super Bowlish with Ezekeil Elliott back in the lineup.


The late game featured a Super Bowl rematch with the Falcons at a foggy New England with the Patriots number dropping from -3.5 down to -2.5.


"Lots of straight bet Falcons money, but parlay liability rolls on Pats and Over," said McCormick prior to kickoff.


I had a time wondering why bettors were jumping on the sluggish Falcons. They look kind of broken.


"It's an unusual position needing the Patriots in an isolated night game, but we got a lot of sharp on the Falcons. We're 2/1 tickets on the Patriots but 2/1 on Atlanta cash."


The Falcons looked like they didn't want to be there and lost 23-7, getting their lone score in the fourth quarter. But hey, at least Julio Jones finally caught a TD pass.


Most books came a really good Saturday.


"Saturday was really good for us, the Notre Dame game was great for us, but Michigan was a bad loss," Stoneback said. "But overall between baseball and the entire day of college football it was great."


It's back to the drawing board for bettors. The books got them right where they want them -- guessing.

 

[CNOTES]

Books adjust to NFC race
October 23, 2017


The NFC Futures Is Wide Open


Would you believe it if I told you that the Philadelphia Eagles are the favorites to win the NFC? Like, the whole conference? Well it’s true. The Eagles have seen one of the most dramatic decreases in the odds to win the NFC market but that’s not the whole story.


The problem is that this is Philadelphia and we’re not even at the halfway point of the season yet. There’s enough reasons to believe that Philadelphia’s rise is sustainable, but there’s also plenty of justification for almost every other team in the conference outside of the San Francisco 49ers, Chicago Bears, New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals.


Check out the futures odds to win the NFC in 2017 listed below.


Best NFC Futures Odds - per BetOnline.ag


ODDS TO WIN 2017 NFC
Team Preseason Odds Current Odds
Philadelphia Eagles +2000 +350
Seattle Seahawks +500 +400
New Orleans Saints +2000 +800
Atlanta Falcons +700 +1000
Dallas Cowboys +500 +1000
Minnesota Vikings +1200 +1000
Washington Redskins +2000 +1600
Los Angeles Rams +5000 +1600
Carolina Panthers +1100 +1600
Green Bay Packers +500 +2000


This conference is such a mess that the Seahawks and Saints, who seemed like write offs after three weeks, are now the two other favorites in the NFC. It’s bonkers.


Want to know how volatile how the league is this year? Last week, the Eagles were the only team that ranked in the top-10 in both points for and points against. Philadelphia still have to contend with the Redskins on Monday Night as -5.5 point favorites, but it’s unlikely that Cousins is held below the 20.3 average the opposing Eagles currently maintain.


My point is, in one week, those rankings have completely shifted. The two teams who rank in the top-10 for points scored and points against are now Jacksonville (9th and 2nd) and the freaking Los Angeles Rams (1st and 10th). Yes. The Jaguars and the Rams are the most “complete” teams through seven weeks of NFL betting. For the record, the Eagles have dropped to 12th on that list defensively.


A big part of that is the amount of shutouts that are happening this year and they all seem to be completely at random. This past weekend alone, the Rams and Jaguars blanked their opponents which explains the rapid jump in their statistical rankings on defence. It makes it even harder to really sniff out which teams are good in this regard, and which teams aren’t.


Grading the value on NFL futures markets is pretty fun if you look at who makes the oddsmakers nervous. The Vikings have no business on this list with Case Keenum as their quarterback yet they’re right in the mix at +1000. They share the same price as the massive public entity known as the Dallas Cowboys and the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons (who also look terrible).


Historically, NFL betting seasons that are volatile tend to level out deeper in to the playoffs. There’s always 3 to 4 teams in each conference that hold sway. But this year is different and the season ending injury to Aaron Rodgers is the big catalyst. The Packers have gone from favorites to win the conference, to +2000 as an afterthought.


The Rams, Eagles, Vikings and Saints are leading their divisions right now. In the NFC East, you can’t write off the Cowboys or the Redskins. The Saints would be idiots to ignore the Falcons no matter how bad they’ve been recently. The Vikings seem like the safest but again, they have Case Keenum so who the hell knows. And in the NFC West, the Rams are going to be hunted down by the Seahawks all year long.


To put things simply, the NFC market is absolutely wide open. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Eagles came back to earth over the next four weeks and I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Falcons rose to the height of their power. Everything is one the table. The Bucs could make a run. Who knows?!


For gamblers, this is a betting nightmare because no commodity in the NFL futures is stable when it comes to the NFC Championship. So what do you do? Invest where there’s value. The Rams at +1600 for some crazy reason that doesn’t feel tangible, feel like the best bet.


Strangely enough, the pick that feels like it’s the sturdiest is the Seattle Seahawks at +400. They know how to win with an incomplete roster and their defence might be the best in the NFL. Russell Wilson also feels like he’s about to go on an MVP caliber run.


This is still a quarterbacks league. Cousins was obliterated in the playoffs in 2015 by Green Bay. He’s certainly improved but the team around him isn’t talented overall. Wentz and Goff have never been to the post season. Dak and the Cowboys have a terrible defence, and questions surrounding Zeke Elliot’s eligibility for the balance of the season.


The whole goddamn thing is a mess and I love it to death. Go with where your gut tells you to. At this point in the NFL season, there are no bad bets in the NFC futures.

 

[CNOTES]

Tuesday’s six-pack


— Mets named Indians pitching coach Mickey Calloway their new manager.


— Red Sox will name Astros bench coach Alex Cora their new manager.


— Last year’s Houston Rockets tried 40+ 3-pointers in half of their 82 games; the team with next highest number in one season was 12 games- the Rockets in 2015.


— UTEP, Oregon State, Georgia Southern have all fired their football coach, and the World Series hasn’t even started yet.


— When Chargers shut Denver out 21-0 Sunday, it was the first time the Broncos had been shut out since 1992.


— Eagles 34, Redskins 24— Kirk Cousins is now 0-9 on weeknights, 0-6 on Monday nights.


***********************


Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……..


13) Statistics are fun, they can be educational, but they can also be really misleading; take the Carolina Panthers’ defensive stats, which should be really good this week, because Carolina’s offense was so terrible that Chicago scored two defensive TD’s early on, then just sat on their 14-0 lead and didn’t even try to score with the ball. Bears had five first downs, gained 153 yards on 37 plays for the whole game, but they won by two TD’s. Very unusual.


12) I’d be curious to know in all the fantasy football leagues around the country, what the teams’ records were in Week 7 that had Aaron Rodgers on them? I had Rodgers on my team when he got hurt in 2013; lets just say things didn’t go too well from that point on.


11) We post the six most popular picks in the Westgate SuperContest each week; thru seven weeks, those picks are just 15-27 vs spread, which means sports books are making a killing so far this season. Handicapping the NFL is a minefield that is very tough to navigate.


10) Cleveland Browns’ tackle Joe Thomas played 10 years and six games without missing a single play, a streak more impressive than Cal Ripken’s iron man streak, but he got hurt Sunday and is now out for the season with a triceps injury. Thomas is a future Hall of Famer.


9) Cubs fired pitching coach Chris Bosio; they won the World Series last year, did Bosio get a lot dumber all of a sudden?


San Francisco Giants also re-assigned most of their coaches, including pitching coach Dave Righetti, who had been in that job since 2000. Giants won three World Series in this decade; maybe they should re-assign the person who put together such an aging roster this past season.


8) Army’s football team has already accepted a bowl bid, to the Armed Forces Bowl on Dec 23. At 6-2, the Cadets are having a breakthrough season.


7) Ole Miss QB Shea Patterson is out for the year after getting hurt against LSU Saturday nite. Been a rough year for the Rebels, who are playing with an interim head coach.


6) Dallas Cowboys kicker Dan Bailey tweaked a leg muscle in San Francisco Sunday; one of the Cowboys’ safeties (Jeff Heath) kicked a field goal, banking it in off the right upright. Cowboys are holding tryouts for a backup kicker this week.


5) This is how competitive pro golf is around the world: In fall of 2016, 30 guys won their cards for the European Tour for 2017 at Q-School. Of those 30 guys, only two have their cards for 2018.


4) Michigan State has a running back named LJ Scott who is pretty good, but he’s been arrested seven times, all for roughly the same thing— unpaid traffic tickets, driving without a license or with a suspended license. How do they keep letting him play? It is mostly harmless stuff, but it shows a lack of respect for rules and sends a bad message that he is playing.


Back in the day, my man Jerry Tarkanian would’ve done this: assign a staff member to take care of his traffic issues for him. Drive him to DMV to pay his fines and renew his license. The better the kid was, the more important it was to keep him eligible and out of trouble.


3) I’m watching 76ers-Pistons game as I type this; game is in Detroit’s new downtown arena and the crowd there is really small. Does every NBA team make money?


2) Denver Broncos have played two road games, scoring one TD on 23 drives; should they explore trading for Eli Manning? Giants are on their bye week; Denver could use a QB. Giants might need to start a rebuilding process.


1) Cleveland Browns should sign Colin Kaepernick; it would diffuse his lawsuit against the NFL, then people could see in plain view whether he is still good enough to keep playing in the league. Plus, there is no way he is worse than the three suspects who’ve been playing QB for the Browns this season. Then they can draft a top-flight QB prospect next April and move on.

 

[CNOTES]

Opening Line Report - Week 8
October 23, 2017

Several teams who came into the season considered Super Bowl contenders have been unimpressive in spots to start the season. Have the Patriots, Seahawks, Steelers, Cowboys and Raiders done enough in more recent performances, including this past weekend’s, to sway the opinions of the betting market?


Here are early lines for Week 8 of the 2017 NFL season. Point spreads and totals are the Las Vegas consensus as of about 4:30 p.m. ET on Monday.


Thursday, Oct. 26


Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 37.5)


This game bounced between Baltimore -3.5 and -3 (-120) during early wagering in Vegas, while the total is the lowest on the Week 8 board.


Sunday, Oct 29


Minnesota Vikings (-8.5, 38) vs. Cleveland Browns (in London)


Minnesota opened -8.5 on Sunday at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, where the line was bet as low as -7.5 before moving back up the ladder to -9.5. Monday afternoon, the number ranged between 8 and 9.5 around town.


Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-8.5, 48)

As handicappers choose between two of the NFL’s best bets this season – Chicago is 5-2 ATS, New Orleans is 4-2 ATS – the spread opened 8.5 at the Westgate, regressed to 7.5, but bet back up to 9.


Atlanta Falcons (-4.5, 46.5) at New York Jets


The Westgate posted Falcons -6.5 before the team’s latest disappointment – a 23-7 loss at New England – and reopened them -4.5 on Monday. Since then, the number was bet up to -5.5 before an adjustment in the other direction to -4.5.


Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs (-2.5, 44)


Most Vegas shops opened this game Tampa -2.5, and while it’s been as high as -3 (even) and as low as -2 in early wagering at the Westgate, the line seems to have settled at 2.5.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5, 47.5)


While they’ve yet to win a game this season, the 49ers had been ultra-competitive, keeping the final score of five straight games within a field goal. That run ended with a 40-10 loss at home to Dallas, and now they have to get back on the road to the East Coast, where Philly has been bet as high as -11.5.

Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 46)


Most of the +3s that were hung on this game were snapped up by underdog bettors, as Vegas sports books were dealing Buffalo -2.5 on Monday.


Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-10, 41)


The opening number of Cincy -9.5 at multiple shops wasn’t big enough, as gamblers laid the points and pushed the line to double digits.


Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (-7/-120, 49)


New England opened -5 and was bet to -5.5 at the Westgate on Sunday night, but the book reopened the Pats -7 on Monday, the morning after the team’s aforementioned win over Atlanta.


“You have to have respect anything the Patriots do positive,” said Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons. “It’s hard to tell if their defense was that much better (Sunday) or it’s more a sign of what’s going on with Atlanta and their play calling, but you have to respect what you saw. It doesn’t take much for the Patriots to get back to being the favorites to win the Super Bowl, and that definitely did it.”


At 7/2 odds (Bet $100 to win $350) on the Westgate’s updated futures board, New England again has the shortest price to emerge victorious Feb. 4, 2018 in Minneapolis.


Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5, 45)


After a rocky 1-2 start, Seattle has reeled off three straight wins and covers. Salmons, though, still doesn’t like the way the Seahawks are starting games (they trailed at halftime in those recent wins over the Giants and Colts and were tied at the half against the Rams).


“I’m to the point with Seattle where I believe it’s just terrible coaching on offense. They purposely play not to score until they have to,” Salmons said. “They score some points in the second half. … I don’t understand why they don’t start the game like that.”


As of Monday, Texans backers can find +6 for next week’s trip to Seattle


Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (pick ‘em, 49)


While most books are dealing this NFC East rivalry game a pick ‘em, CG Technology has Washington the 1-point chalk.


The Cowboys’ win at San Francisco on Sunday evened their record to 3-3, but it’s going to take beating teams better than the 49ers, Cardinals and Giants to impress Salmons.


Salmons said he was anticipating the 49ers to crack last week at Washington, as they were playing their third straight road game and coming off two straight overtime games.


“It just happened one week later. The Niners cracked (Sunday), and it was just too much to overcome,” Salmons said. “And Dallas was off the bye, so it set up well for them.”


He added, “Until Dallas can play a really good team on the road and show me something, I’m not buying into Dallas.”


Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 45) at Detroit Lions


There’s been no movement off the key number since Pitt was installed as the field-goal road favorite for the Week 8 Sunday nighter, although the vig has some variance.


Said Salmons, “Power-rating wise, Pittsburgh is the clear second in the AFC behind the Patriots, and it’s really close (between those two) right now.”


Monday, Oct. 30


Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 44)


The Westgate opened Kansas City -7 on Sunday night, with a move to -7.5 (even) on Monday. The Chiefs are still available at -7 flat for those looking to lay the points. While K.C. has lost two straight, the Broncos’ nose dive appears to be worse, as they’ve lost three of four and were shut out by the Chargers on Sunday.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )


10/23/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/22/2017 11-13-2 45.83% -16.50
10/19/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/16/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/15/2017 13-11-0 54.17% +4.50
10/12/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/09/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/08/2017 8-10-0 44.44% -15.00
10/05/2017 1-0-1 100.00% +5.00
10/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/01/2017 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00


Totals............37 - 39 - 3....48.68%....-29.50




Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total


10/23/2017................1 - 0.................+5.00...........0 - 1.........-5.50.............-0.50


10/22/2017................2 - 3 - 2.............-6.50............4 - 6.........-13.00...........-19.50


10/19/2017.................0 - 0.................+0.00...........0 - 1...........-5.50...............-5.50


10/16/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00...........1 - 0...........+5.00..............+10.00


10/15/2017.................2 - 4.................-12.00...........3 - 1...........+9.50..............-2.50


10/12/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0 ..........+5.00..............+10.00


10/09/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0...........+5.00..............+10.00


10/08/2017.................3 - 3.................-1.50.............2 - 4...........-12.00...............-13.50


10/05/2017.................0 - 0 - 1.............0.00.............1 - 0...........+5.00................+ 5.00


10/02/2017.................1 - 0................+5.00.............0 - 1............-5.50.................- 0.50


10/01/2017.................4 - 4.................-2.00.............2 - 2............- 1.00.................- 3.00


Totals......................16 - 14 - 3............-+3.00...........15 - 16...........-13.00................- 10.00


Sunday Night 2 Team Parlay...........................0 - 3..................................-15.00
.
Thursday Night 2 Team Parlay........................1 - 0..................................+12.50


Thursday Night Game of the month................1 - 0..................................+5.00


Monday Night 2 Team Parlay..........................1 - 0 .................................+12.50

 

[CNOTES]

*NFL Opening Line Report: Sharp action bloats Bucs spread vs. Carolina*



The Tampa Bay Buccaneers find new ways to lose each week. They've dropped three in a row but sharp bettors are backing Jameis Winston and Co. to cover against the Panthers.


Week 8 of the NFL season doesn’t have any truly eye-catching matchups, but a couple of NFC East rivals could spice things up a bit. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines and early action for a quartet of games, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

*Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (no line)*


Dallas put a two-game losing skid in its rearview mirror, and in convincing fashion in Week 7. The Cowboys (3-3 SU and ATS) went to San Francisco as 6.5-point road favorites and left with a 40-10 rout to climb back to .500.


Washington (3-2 SU and ATS) still has Week 7 work to do, traveling to Philadelphia for Monday Night Football this evening. In Week 6, the Redskins beat the 49ers, too, albeit in a much tighter game, 26-24 as a 12-point home chalk.


Since Washington plays tonight, Bookmaker.eu is holding off on posting an opening line, though Cooley has an idea of where it will land.


“We’ll wait until Monday Night Football concludes, but look for this to surface around a pick ‘em,” he said. “No doubt we’ll get public money on the Cowboys, so if the sharps don’t get involved, expect the spread to trend in Dallas’ direction.”

*Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)*


Carolina just can’t seem to figure out what it is yet. Earlier this month, the Panthers (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) won outright as an underdog at New England and at Detroit. Cam Newton & Co. then lost their next two games, including Sunday’s dismal 17-3 setback to Chicago as a 2.5-point road fave.


Tampa Bay won two of its first three games, but has since dropped three in a row. The Buccaneers (2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS) had to swallow a bitter pill Sunday at Buffalo, taking a 27-20 lead on a touchdown with 3:14 remaining, then giving up 10 points those final minutes to lose 30-27 catching 3 points.


“Two of the more mercurial teams in the league, so we opened with basically a pick ‘em,” Cooley said. “Early smart money has come in on the Bucs. We all know that the Panthers defense is a different unit without Luke Kuechly.”


That early sharp play on Tampa drove the line up to -2.5.


Kuechly, Carolina’s standout linebacker, sat out against the Bears and remains under concussion protocol.

*Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (+3)*


Pittsburgh just might be getting back on track, winning and cashing the past two weeks. The Steelers (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) dropped Cincinnati 29-14 Sunday as a 4-point home favorite.


Detroit won three of its first four games, but enter this contest having lost two in a row. The Lions (3-3 SU and ATS) had a bye in Week 7 and probably needed it after giving up a 50-burger-plus in Week 6 – a 52-38 road loss to New Orleans as a 6-point pup.


“We’re definitely expecting the classic divide here, with sharps on Detroit and squares on the Steelers,” Cooley said. “Has Pittsburgh finally found its offensive footing? We’ll certainly find out against what seems to be a bleeding Lions defense.”


*Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (-6)*


Seattle has won and cashed for bettors in its past three games, though surprisingly is still looking up at the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West. The Seahawks (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) made a successful cross-country trip in Week 7, dropping the New York Giants 24-7 as a 4-point chalk.


Houston, coming off its bye week, hopes to keep pace with Tennessee and upstart Jacksonville in the middling AFC South. Prior to that bye, the Texans (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) topped Cleveland 33-17 giving 7.5 points at home.


“Wiseguys are on the Texans early here,” Cooley said, alluding to the line dropping from -6 to -5.5 at Bookmaker.eu. “Houston obviously lost an edge on the defensive front (J.J. Watt injury), but it’s still sound, and the offense has more than made up for it. Outside of Andy Reid, nobody is calling better plays than Bill O’Brien right now. It will be a great test against Seattle’s D.”

 

[CNOTES]

Close Calls - Week 7
October 24, 2017

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in Week 7 of the NFL regular season.


Oakland Raiders (+3) 31, Kansas City Chiefs 30 (46): The Chiefs led 20-14 at halftime and 30-21 heading into the fourth quarter. Oakland settled for a short field goal early in the fourth quarter to trail by six and the Raiders got a big stop forcing a punt with the Chiefs just across midfield, however pinned deep, the Raiders had to punt the ball right back. Oakland’s defense forced another punt to get the ball back with just over two minutes remaining at its own 15-yard-line. The Raiders completed a big 4th-and-11 play just past midfield to stay alive, but only 33 seconds remained with the Raiders expending their final timeout.


Derek Carr hit Jared Cook for what was ruled a touchdown, but on review he was ruled short. The Raiders got the next snap off with just a few seconds remaining with a touchdown taken off the board for offensive pass interference. On the next play, Oakland’s pass through the end zone was bailed out with defensive holding call on the Chiefs. The same call was made on another incomplete pass to keep the Raiders alive. Oakland finally delivered with a strike to Michael Crabtree just inside the end zone with the extra-point securing the minor upset and flipping the spread results to open Week 7.


Minnesota Vikings (-5) 24, Baltimore Ravens 16 (37½): Minnesota led 9-6 at halftime and 18-9 through three quarters in a field goal fest. The Vikings added two more fourth quarter kicks to match a NFL record with nine combined field goals in the game and up 24-9 with three minutes to go as the favorite cover was safe. With a very low total, a Ravens touchdown has the potential to clear the ‘over’ and on the final play of the game Joe Flacco hit Chris Moore for a fourth down touchdown pass to surpass the total.


Miami Dolphins (-3) 31, New York Jets 28 (40): The Jets led 28-14 heading into the fourth quarter while the Dolphins had lost starting quarterback Jay Cutler. Backup Matt Moore who played well for the Dolphins late last season, came in and delivered two touchdown passes to tie the game with about six minutes remaining. After exchanging punts, the Jets got the ball back with less than a minute to play at their own 15-yard-line. Josh McCown made a critical mistake with a first down interception and the Dolphins stole a big division win with a 39-yard field goal in the final seconds, leading to a push for most.


Buffalo Bills (-3) 30, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 (46½): The Bills led 17-13 through three quarters to sit just past the favorite spread with the ‘under’ holding course even after a pair of third quarter touchdowns. Buffalo made it a seven-point advantage with a field goal but Jameis Winston connected with O.J. Howard for his second touchdown of the game. That score tied the game at 20-20 and Buffalo fumbled on its next possession. The Buccaneers took advantage with another Winston touchdown pass to lead by seven with just over three minutes remaining, hitting the ‘over’ in the process as well. Buffalo hasn’t been known for big plays but on first down the Bills connected for 44 yards with a 15-yard penalty tacked on. Two plays later the game was tied 27-27. This time, Tampa Bay had the untimely fumble on first down just ahead of the two-minute-warning. Buffalo ran out the clock and kicked a field goal with 14 seconds remaining for the win, though leaving bettors with a push.


New Orleans Saints (-4) 26, Green Bay Packers 17 (45½): The Packers still led 14-7 at halftime despite blowing an opportunity to add points just before the break. The Saints came back in the third quarter with a touchdown and a field goal, though missing an extra-point to lead by just two. The teams traded field goals and leads early in the fourth quarter with New Orleans leading 19-17 with about 10 minutes remaining. A penalty wiped out a strong kick return for the Packers and then on the punt another Green Bay penalty helped to give the Saints great field position. Drew Brees took advantage eventually getting into the end zone himself to extend the Saints lead past the road favorite spread under the five minute mark. Brett Hundley had avoided an interception in his first start until the most critical moment with a forced third down pass that sealed the win for the Saints with the game also staying just ‘under’.


Dallas Cowboys (-6½) 40, San Francisco 49ers 10 (47½): Ezekiel Elliott made the most of his chance to play this week scoring twice early in the fourth quarter. The rout was on as Elliott took a short pass 72 yards for his third score of the day early in the third quarter. While the spread result wasn’t in doubt, the total still was in play at 33-3 with Dallas missing an extra-point with Safety Jeff Heath kicking for the injured Dan Bailey. Dallas scored with about 11 minutes remaining after a turnover to lead 40-3 with certainly no need to try to add points. Rookie C.J. Beathard would survive an interception wiped out with a penalty and eventually called his own number for a touchdown with six minutes remaining to clear the ‘over’.

Seattle Seahawks (-4) 24, New York Giants 7 (39½): Seattle had a big edge in production, but they trailed 7-0 until getting a field goal in the final minute of the first half. The Giants scored on a 17-yard drive following a fumble and also managed to stop the Seahawks going for it on 4th-and-1 just outside of the end zone. More punts followed to start the second half before the Seahawks hit three decent gains in the passing game to lead 10-7 halfway through the third quarter, still short of the road favorite spread that fell throughout the week. New York missed a 47-yard field goal early in the fourth quarter and then Eli Manning had a costly fumble still down just three. Seattle scored on the next play to lead 17-7 and then added another touchdown just before the two-minute-warning to put the game away.


Philadelphia Eagles (-4½) 34, Washington Redskins 24 (48½): Washington was in control early in this game as the defense held Philadelphia to just 39 net yards on the first four Eagles drives, but back-to-back 15-yard penalties allowed the Eagles to get a field goal. In the final minutes before halftime, the Eagles put together a pair of 80-yard scoring drives with a 64-yard pass play for the first touchdown and a pass interference penalty on a key third down in the final minute handing the Eagles a touchdown instead of a field goal for a 17-10 edge at the break.


Philadelphia still led by seven heading into the fourth quarter to sit just past the home favorite spread, but the third down success for the Eagles continued with a pair of big conversions giving the Eagles another touchdown drive for a commanding 31-17 edge, putting the ‘over’ in great position as well. Washington had their first turnover of the game on the next drive handing the Eagles another field goal but the Redskins added a touchdown with just over three minutes remaining to climb back within 10. A missed field goal from the Eagles gave Washington a chance for a backdoor cover late, but a first down sack made the down and distance too much to reach as the Eagles cleared Week 7 as the league’s only one-loss team.

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 8
October 24, 2017


THURSDAY, OCT. 26


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MIAMI at BALTIMORE (CBS, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Dolphins “under” 5-1 TY after big “over” marks LY. Gase 7-3 vs. line last ten as reg.-season dog. Ravens 1-4 vs. line last five after quick break.
Tech Edge: Dolphins and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


SUNDAY, OCT. 29


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MINNESOTA vs. CLEVELAND at Twickenham, London (NFL, 9:30 a.m. ET)
Brownies 6-18 vs. line last 24. Also “under” 11-4 last 15 since mid 2016.
Tech Edge: Vikings and "under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

CHICAGO at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Surging Saints on 4-game win and cover streak. Brees also “over” 18-7 last 25 at Superdome, Bears have covered three straight but their extended road mark is subpar (4-9-1 vs. spread away sicne midway in the 2015 campaign).
Tech Edge: “Over” and Saints, based on Saints “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ATLANTA at N.Y. JETS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs 5-1 as road chalk since LY (1-1 TY), also 10-2 vs. spread last 11 as visitor. Falcs “over” 18-7 since LY. Jets 7-3 as home dog since 2015.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on Falcs “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CAROLINA at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cam “over” 4-1 last five TY. Carolina 6-2 vs. line last four years in series.
Tech Edge: Panthers and “over,” based on Carolina trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN FRANCISCO at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Niners 6-3 last 9 vs. spread. Into last Monday, Eagles 8-3 vs. line at home since LY with Wentz. SF also “over” 4-1 last five away, Birds “over” 8-3-1 since late 2016.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
OAKLAND at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders squeaked out KC win or would be staring at five SU and spread Ls in a row. Oakland just 1-2 vs. line away TY after 9-2 spread mark previous 11 on reg.-season road.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bills, based on team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
INDIANAPOLIS at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bengals “under” 23-10 last 33 since mid 2015, though Indy “over” 5-2 TY. Colts covers last four on road since late LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals, based on recent trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
L.A. CHARGERS at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bolts 2-0-1 as road dog TY, now 23-11-2 in role since 2012. Belichick dropped 3 of first 4 vs. line at home in 2017, and is now on an 8-2 “over” run.
Tech Edge: Chargers and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
HOUSTON at SEATTLE (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Houston “over” four straight, also 4-1 last five vs. spread. Hawks “over” 10-5-1 last 16 at home.
Tech Edge: "Over,” based on “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DALLAS at WASHINGTON (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Cowboys 4-9 vs. spread last 13 since late 2016. Road team has covered last six in series, though Skins on 13-7 spread uptick since early 2016. Jay Gruden “over” 21-6 since late 2015 after ;last Monday vs. Eagles.
Tech Edge: "Over" and slight to Skins, based on "totals" and team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PITTSBURGH at DETROIT (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Steel “under” 6-1 TY, now “under" 22-8 since late 2015. Lions however “over” first three at home TY. If getting points, note Caldwell just 2-6 last 8 vs. spread at home in role.
Tech Edge: Slight to "under,” based on Steelers’ “totals” trends.


MONDAY, OCT. 30
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DENVER at KANSAS CITY (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Broncs swept LY by Chiefs for first time since 2000. Denver 2-6 vs. line last eight away and has lost and failed to cover three straight vs. Chiefs. KC now “over” 8-4-1 in reg. season since mid 2016. “Overs” 3-0-1 last four meetings.
Tech Edge: Chiefs and “over,” based on recent scores and “totals” trends.

 

[CNOTES]

Inside the Stats - Week 8
October 25, 2017


Stats don’t lie. People who interpret them do.


Let’s take a look at how teams are performing this season ‘Inside The Stats’.


LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS


Here are the teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game. This week includes:


College Football: Army, and Rutgers (200 yards)


NFL: Chicago Bears


PUTTIN’ ON THE STATS


Keeping up with our look at teams who have either dominated, or been dominated, In The Stats (ITS) this season, let’s turn to the teams that will potentially qualify on our ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ list when November rolls around.

From our sister statistical publicatio, here is a list of the “spotless” candidates and their respective ITS records in games played through October 9:


ITS dominators: Alabama 8-0, Central Florida 5-0, Georgia 7-0, Oklahoma 7-0, Oklahoma State 7-0, South Florida 7-0, and Wisconsin 7-0.


ITS virgins: East Carolina 0-7-1.


YES, RUSHING STILL MATTERS


The NFL has turned into a pass-happy league but the truth of the matter is running the football – or in this case stopping the run - still counts in college football. Consider: there are only six FBS teams are allowing less than 3 Yards Per Rush per game on the season. They are Alabama, Michigan State, Northern Illinois, Ohio State, TCU, and Troy.


Collectively these teams are 37-6 SU and 24-15-1 ATS in the season. Just saying.


LEAKING OIL


Each week on the football card each we isolate favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.


We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s Pennzoil favorites and their current ITS losing skein record.


College Football: Colorado 0-5, Indiana 0-3, Iowa 0-4, Kansas State 0-4, and Kentucky 0-5


NFL: Buffalo Bills 0-5

YOU GOTTA BE KIDDING


Washington Redskins QB Kirk Cousins is 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS in his career on weekdays. Remember that when the Skins face the New York Giants on Thanksgiving Day later this year.

STAT OF THE WEEK


From ESPN Stats & Info: For the first time in team history the New Orleans Saints have won 4 straight games immediately after starting the season 0-2.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL notebook: Steelers' Bryant demoted to scout team
October 25, 2017


Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Martavis Bryant was demoted to the scout team on Wednesday and is expected to be inactive for Sunday night's game against the Detroit Lions.


The 25-year-old Bryant told reporters Wednesday he is not playing Sunday. When asked why, Bryant said, "Social media."


Bryant told reporters after Wednesday's practice he is frustrated.


Bryant was targeted twice and caught one pass for 3 yards during last Sunday's 29-14 win over the Cincinnati Bengals.

--Out-of-work free agent quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who began the movement of NFL players protesting by kneeling during national anthem while he was playing for the San Francisco 49ers last year, is expected to be invited to the next meeting between owners and players.


The meeting is scheduled Tuesday in New York, but there is no confirmation whether Kaepernick will attend.


NFL spokesman Joe Lockhart said he expects Kaepernick will be invited, according to ESPN. The invitation would be extended by the players, not the league, Lockhart said.


--The Cleveland Browns are staying with rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer, naming him the starter for Sunday's game in London against the Minnesota Vikings.


Coach Hue Jackson announced that Kizer, who was benched in the second half after throwing two interceptions last Sunday against the Tennessee Titans, will make his second straight start.


Kizer was pulled for the second time in three games. Cody Kessler took his place in Sunday's 12-9 overtime loss to the Titans. Kizer also was benched in Week 5 for Kevin Hogan, who started the sixth game for the winless Browns.

--The Tampa Bay Buccaneers placed defensive end Noah Spence on injured reserve after he suffered another dislocated shoulder against the Buffalo Bills.


Spence, the Bucs' 2016 second-round draft pick, was injured in Sunday's 30-27 loss -- his fourth shoulder dislocation in the past two seasons, including two this year. The injury will require more surgery, the team announced.


The Buccaneers also signed defensive end Darryl Tapp and cornerback Deji Olatoye.

--The Seattle Seahawks added veteran defensive end Dwight Freeney to bolster their pass-rushing depth as the two sides agreed to terms on a one-year contract.


The 37-year-old Freeney spent the first 11 seasons of his career in Indianapolis, earning Pro Bowl honors seven times and first-team All-Pro honors three times.


Freeney was in Seattle on Tuesday to work out and take a physical for the Seahawks. He later tweeted: "Time to get loud, 12s. #GoHawks Seahawks."

--The Chicago Bears acquired wide receiver Dontrelle Inman from the Los Angeles Chargers for a conditional draft pick.


Chargers coach Anthony Lynn confirmed the trade, but did not reveal specifics. ESPN's Adam Schefter cited sources as saying that the conditional pick is a seventh-round selection in 2018 and will be based on Inman's production this season.


Inman has two receptions for nine yards in four games this season for Los Angeles, which also features fellow wideouts Keenan Allen, Travis Benjamin, Tyrell Williams and rookie Mike Williams.


--Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week for his four-touchdown passing performance in Monday night's win over the Washington Redskins.


The NFL also announced that Oakland Raiders wide receiver Amari Cooper took the AFC offensive honor in Week 7 as he made 11 catches for 210 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 31-30 comeback win over the Kansas City Chiefs.


Chicago Bears safety Eddie Jackson was named the NFC Defensive Player of the Week after his 75-yard fumble return for a touchdown and 76-yard interception return for a score in the 17-3 win over the Carolina Panthers. Tennessee Titans safety Kevin Byard earned the AFC defensive award for his three-interception performance in the 12-9 win against the winless Cleveland Browns.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday's Best Bet
October 25, 2017


NFL Week 8 TNF Best Bet (CBS, 8:25 p.m. ET)


Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens

After three straight weeks of having some highly anticipated TNF games to begin the new week – New England/Tampa Week 5, Philadelphia/Carolina Week 6, and Kansas City/Oakland in Week 7 – it looks like Week 8 is back classified under one of those TNF games that could end up being extremely painful to watch.


Miami and Baltimore have been among the league's worst offenses all year long, and Baltimore is coming off a game where they didn't score a TD until the final seconds of garbage time. Will these two teams be able to put some points up on the board on a short week?


HeritageSports.eu Odds: Baltimore (-3); Total set at 37


Baltimore and Miami both rank in the bottom five of the league in adjusted net yards per play and both average fewer then 18 points per game on average. However, both teams have put up 20 or more points in two of their last three games, with Miami's offense being the most impressive last week in their fourth quarter comeback against the New York Jets.


Miami's 17-point outburst in the final frame was led by backup QB Matt Moore as he came in for a injured Jay Cutler who will once again be in street clothes this week. Moore was a guy this Dolphins organization didn't fully believe could handle the load of being a 16-game starter this year – hence the decision to pull Cutler out of retirement – but he actually may be the one more suited to run this Dolphins offense given his time spent in the system. We saw that in relief last Sunday, and Dolphins fans are hoping to see more of the same on a short week on Thursday night


Baltimore's offensive woes are more because the status quo really isn't working anymore, as QB Joe Flacco and his huge contract are becoming more and more of a burden to the organization. Flacco's 5 TD passes to his 8 INT's have really put this Ravens team behind the 8-ball at various times this year, and his 5.31 yards per attempt is good for last in the entire league of qualifying QB's.


If Baltimore has any ideas of seriously competing in the AFC North this year, Flacco's going to have to step up his play in a big way. Whether that's taking more shots downfield or reading defensive coverages better, Baltimore better find some answers in a hurry.


Things aren't likely to drastically change on a short week for the Ravens, but Miami's new-look attack with Matt Moore at the controls may force the Ravens to try. Moore's basically playing for his job at the moment, and should he be the guy that gets the Dolphins own offense out of the misery it's been all year, Cutler may end up being on the sideline even when he returns.


Last week's fourth quarter deficit did dictate Moore throw the ball more, but it was clear he had a good connection with his receivers and I expect that to continue this week. With Baltimore's defense being last against the run (145.3 yards allowed per game) a guy like RB Jay Ajayi could be in store for a huge day in this one and his success will open up things for Moore and Miami's aerial attack.


With this game having the common belief that it will be a boring, ugly TNF game with two bad offenses on a short week, I believe bucking that prevailing notion could prove to be how you cash a ticket here. This total of 37 is the lowest on the board for Week 8 and just like the previous two TNF games, I do believe we see this game sail 'over' the number. Both sides are aware of how putrid they've been on offense this year, and this national spotlight game is a chance for both to dispel those ideas to an extent.


Miami's first 'over' of the year came in last week's comeback win, but they are 9-4 O/U dating back to last year when coming off an outright victory, and 5-2 O/U after scoring 30+ points. Meanwhile, Baltimore is on a 4-1 O/U run after failing to cover the spread, and despite all their offensive woes, are still on a 4-1 O/U run this year entering Week 8. Turnovers, whether for or against, have been a big part of Baltimore games all year, and getting or giving up short fields is always something an 'over' bettor prefers.


So while the majority of bettors will see this matchup, look at the YTD stats for both offenses and conclude that these two teams will struggle to even reach 30 points on TNF, I'm taking the contrarian stance here and looking for this low total to actually be surpassed relatively easily. I've always liked to take the approach of playing 'overs' in games involving two bad offenses and 'unders' in games involving two high-powered offenses because their is inherent value built into those plays based on the lines and the common perception.


This game definitely falls into the former, and with Baltimore is 2-0 O/U in non-division AFC games already this year, and I believe they make it three in a row this week with both teams scoring in the 20's.


Best Bet: Over (37)

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday’s six-pack


— Astros 7, Dodgers 6 (11)— First game in MLB history with five extra-inning homers.


— If Alabama played Penn State for the national title today, they’d be a 9-point favorite.


— Tom Thibodeau went 255-139 as coach of the Bulls; why did they fire him? Bulls are 83-84 since they let him go.


— Rockets 105, 76ers 104— Eric Gordon hit a 3-pointer at buzzer.


— Warriors 117, Raptors 112— Golden State outscored Toronto 10-0 in last 2:00


— 34-year old Dustin Pedroia had knee surgery this week, is expected to be out seven months, meaning he’ll miss the start of next season.


********************


Thursday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……


13) Nick Saban is making $11M this season, including $4M for what amounts to “a signing bonus”, making him the highest-paid college coach in America. Wow.


12) Most surprising thing to me on the list is that Arizona’s Rich Rodriguez is 5th-highest paid college football coach in the country, earning $5.6M this year.


Arizona is 41-31 under Rodriguez, 5-2 this year- they were 2-10 last year.


11) Chiefs’ RB Kareem Hunt lost a fumble on his first carry of the season in Foxboro; KC hasn’t turned the ball over since- they’re +7 in turnovers right now.


10) Atlanta Falcons led NFL in scoring LY, were #2 in yards gained- they won the NFC.


This year, Falcons are #16 in scoring, #7 in yards gained- they’re 3-3.


SI.com‘s Robert Klemko points this out: through six games in 2016, Matt Ryan was 14-of-23 on passes traveling more than 20 yards downfield. Through six games this season, he’s 4-of-21.


9) Courtney Lee plays for the Knicks; Tuesday, he said some players on the Knicks don’t know the plays and they need to pay attention more in practice.


This is professional basketball, the second week of a 6-month season. Oy.


8) Game 1 of the World Series took 2:28 to play, the shortest World Series game since 1992. I’d prefer a longer game with more action, but thats just me.


Game 2 was more what I had in mind…….


7) Who made USC’s football schedule? They don’t have any bye weeks- they have a week off after their last regular season game and the Pac-12 championship game, but they have to get there for that to be relevant.


Trojans are in a 3-way tie with Arizona/ASU in the Pac-12 South- their game at Arizona State this weekend is a big one. USC looked like a tired team last week at Notre Dame.


6) Wake Forest no longer allows guests into their football practices, because LY one of their own radio announcers was found out to be giving Wake’s plays out to future opponents, after the radio guy wasn’t retained as an assistant coach the year before.


Problem with that is this: often times, some of the guests at practices are people who donate a lot of money to the athletic department. Ticking them off isn’t good for the bottom line, but if an opponents gets part of your playbook, thats an even worse problem.


5) Mentioned yesterday how North Carolina’s senior PG Joel Berry broke his hand this week and will miss the start of the season. Turns out Berry punched a door after losing a video game he was playing with teammate Theo Pinson and a student manager. Not good.


4) Steelers’ WR JuJu Smith-Schuster had his bike stolen recently; I’m just amazed that an NFL player doesn’t have his driver’s license yet— he is taking the driver’s test soon.


If I ran the Steelers, wouldn’t want one of my players driving his bike on city streets— I’d take Smith-Schuster to DMV myself to get him his license, then get him an endorsement deal with a local car dealer, to get hm a safe ride to work every day.


3) MVP of the World Series gets the “Willie Mays Award” as MLB honors Mays, one of the best baseball players ever. Pretty cool award to win.


Some jackass wrote an article this week questioning if MLB did the right thing naming the award after Mays, who played in four World Series but didn’t hit that well in any of them, though his catch in CF in the ’54 Series is one of the best in WS history.


Mays hit 660 major league home runs, had a career on-base % of .384, led the NL in stolen bases four times. He was a great freakin’ player; he deserves to have an award named after him.


2) Former NBA commissioner David Stern spoke up for the NBA allowing “medical marijuana”, which means that marijuana basically will be legalized in the NBA, since every player has a sore knee or a sore back or SOMETHING that would allow him to smoke weed for medical reasons.


Stern was commissioner of the NBA for 30 years; his voice carries a lot of weight.


1) This is a somewhat small sample, but thru four games, Lonzo Ball’s plus/minus is -24; the Lakers are +6 when Lonzo is on the bench.


Plus/minus is the score of the game when that player is on the floor, so over long term, it is a telling stat. It can be misleading in small samples, so we’ll follow this as the year goes on.