Total Talk - Week 9
November 4, 2017
The ‘over’ produced an 8-5 mark last week and outside of one result, it’s fair to say the outcomes were clear-cut. For those bettors on the ‘under’ in the Redskins-Cowboys (46 ½) game, please accept our apologies. The late pick-six touchdown is never tough to stomach but for the individuals who cashed Dallas-Over tickets, congrats! Through eight weeks of the NFL regular season, the ‘over’ holds a 61-57-1 record.
Line Moves
Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday morning based off the Week 9 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.
Atlanta at Carolina: 44 to 42 ½
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: 50 to 52
Indianapolis at Houston: 48 to 46 (Watson Injury)
Kansas City at Dallas: 48 ½ to 53 ½
Dealing with the status of players has been unpredictable this season and we’re dealing with more this weekend. The recent injury to Houston quarterback DeShaun Watson had books scrambling on Thursday for their matchup at home to Indianapolis. Despite the rookie’s absence, the total didn’t take that much of a fall.
“Certainly, Indy’s poor defense is always a factor in the total, but it’s not as if this offense is just humming along. And now you’ve got the Tom Savage situation, which certainly handicaps what Houston can do offensively. I do think this number will come down some before kickoff, but 45 might be the floor,” said Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu.
The other late-breaking news this week came out of Dallas on Friday morning with running back Ezekiel Elliott being allowed to play after he was expected to start serving his six-game suspension.
Cooley added, “I think this is the biggest total move of the NFL season, and it’s shocking to see a number move this much at this point of the season. Both the sharps and squares have aligned, and it’s created a huge liability. I know (or hope) we’ll see this come back down at some point, but it won’t be enough to offset the exposure we have.”
Dallas has watched the ‘over’ cash in its last four games and the club is averaging 33.5 points per game during this span. Kansas City has been a solid ‘over’ bet (5-2-1) this season but make a note that all of the tickets going to the high side took place in games under the lights. This will be the highest total posted in a Chiefs game this season.
Visiting High
Last week, I touched on some home-away trends and Week 9 will feature four teams taking perfect ‘over’ records on the road.
Colts (4-0) – Indy visits Houston. The Colts own the worst scoring defense (30.8 PPG) in the league and the units has been worse on the road (38 PPG).
Rams (3-0) – Los Angeles visits the N.Y. Giants. The Rams are averaging 34.3 PPG outside of California and they posted 33 in a home game played overseas from London.
Redskins (3-0) – Washington visits Seattle. The Redskins are averaging 23.3 PPG in their last three road games vs. teams from the AFC and NFC West Divisions, which includes a 27-point effort at the Rams in Week 2.
Buccaneers (3-0) – Tampa Bay visits New Orleans. The Bucs scoring defense (34 PPG) is the second worst on the road and they are dead last in yards per play allowed (6.9) away from home.
Road System
I touched on a solid total angle that I’ve been following for seasons in Week 6 and it connected. It’s live again in Week 9 with not one but two matchups. What’s the system?
Play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game
In Week 6, San Francisco was playing its third straight road game when it visited Washington. The Redskins won 26-24 and the ‘over’ (46 ½) connected thanks to a late surge. A win is a win, right?
Including that result, this system has watched the ‘over’ go 42-20 (68%) the last 12 seasons.
The two matchups that fit this week are listed below:
Denver at Philadelphia
Atlanta at Carolina
Early Vacation?
I really enjoy following seasonal total trends and my colleague Matt found a great one to follow this year which focuses on games with teams playing before their ‘bye’ week. Through eight weeks, 22 teams have had their bye in the NFL regular season.
Based on our numbers, the ‘under’ has gone 16-6 (73%) in their games before the bye. Keep in mind that we’re double-counting results, so the Patriots-Chargers ‘under’ last week resulted in a 2-0 mark to the low side since both teams fit the system. At the same time, the ‘over’ result in London last Sunday between the Browns and Vikings was a 2-0 ‘over’ result. The other games that went ‘under’ last week were never in doubt as the Bears and Steelers helped the cause. For those of you a little confused, all six of those teams just mentioned are not playing in Week 9.
The four games that would fit this angle in Week 9 would include matchups featuring Kansas City, Oakland, Philadelphia and Baltimore since they’re all on ‘bye’ in Week 10.
For those keeping track, teams playing with rest this season have watched the ‘over’ go 6-4 in their following games. We have six teams coming off the bye this week - Green Bay, Tennessee, L.A. Rams, N.Y. Giants, Arizona and Jacksonville.
Divisional Contests
The ‘over’ went 2-1 in these head-to-head matchups last week and the ‘under’ is 23-11 overall this season in divisional contests. The two games that went high were certainly helped with interceptions, especially the Cowboys-Redskins outcome. In last week’s piece, I mentioned that you might want to look at a vice versa angle in these divisional rematch games. The opposite outcome started out 2-0 and this past Thursday’s game between the Jets and Bills went ‘over’ after the pair played to the ‘under’ in their first meeting.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: The ‘under’ is on a 4-2 run in this series and the two ‘over’ tickets occurred at the Superdome. Tampa Bay has had success playing in the ‘Big Easy’ with the offense posting 24, 26 and 31 points in their last three visits. I don’t want to discredit the Saints defense (20.7 PPG) but they’ve only faced two legit quarterbacks this season (Brady, Stafford). In those games, New Orleans gave up 36 and 38 points. Bucs QB Jameis Winston isn’t in that class but he’s certainly better than Brett Hundley and Mitch Trubisky. New Orleans has watched the ‘over’ go 2-1 at home this season, with the lone ‘under’ hitting last Sunday versus the aforementioned rookie on the Bears.
Atlanta at Carolina: The ‘over’ went 2-0 between the pair last season as the Falcons torched the Panthers for 33 and 48 points. From what we’ve seen from both teams offensively this season, it’s hard to imagine either club getting in that neighborhood on Sunday. The oddsmakers agree and this is the lowest total (42 ½) between the pair since they met in 2011 when Jimmy Clausen was playing QB for Carolina.
Indianapolis at Houston: Even though this game will be played with backup QBs on the field, the recent trend in this series could have you leaning high. Since 2013, the total has gone 4-4 between the pair but the ‘over’ is 4-0 in Houston while the ‘under’ has produced a 4-0 mark in the games play at Indianapolis.
Arizona at San Francisco: This is the only rematch game this week and like the matchup above, it’s featuring a pair of backup QBs (Drew Stanton vs. C.J. Beathard). Arizona defeated San Francisco 18-15 in Week 4 at home and the ‘under’ (43 ½) connected even though there were 10 scores (9 FGs, 1 TD) in the game. The 49ers have seen the ‘over’ go 2-1 at Levi’s Stadium and they’ve helped those results with the worst scoring defense at home (34.7 PPG) this season.
Detroit at Green Bay: (See Below)
Under the Lights
The ‘over’ went 2-1 in Week 8 and the high side has gone 16-10 (62%) this season, which includes this past Thursday’s result between the Bills and Jets. Make a note that TNF (4-0) and MNF (3-0) have been streaking high lately, while the SNF (3-0) is on a run to the low side.
Oakland at Miami: Sticking with the ‘under’ trend just mentioned on Sunday Night, I believe that could be a look again or you might want to pass. The Raiders have been very hard to figure out offensively this season and they’ve scored 10, 10 and 14 in their last three road games. Even worse offensively is Miami, who is ranked last in scoring (13.1), total yards (252.4) and yards per play (4.1). The defense was playing great, but the Dolphins have surrendered 28 and 40 the past two weeks.
Detroit at Green Bay: This is another game where you might want to take the night off, find something else to do productively for three hours. For what it’s worth, the ‘over’ is on a 3-0 run in this series but that was with Aaron Rodgers at QB for Green Bay. Make a note that he accounted for 11 total TDs in those games. The Lions defense looked good in their 20-15 loss at home last Sunday to Pittsburgh and the unit has been better on the road this season. If you’re looking for an angle, Green Bay playing off rest has been a great wager. Since Mike McCarthy became the Packers head coach in 2006, Green Bay has gone 9-2 off the bye and the ‘under’ has gone 8-3 in those games.
Fearless Predictions
Even though I was on the wrong side of the Texans-Seahawks shootout, I could’ve went 3-1 with a couple breaks but in hindsight I could’ve easily been 0-4. The bankroll ($440) is approaching a five-unit deficit as we’ve reached the middle of the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Tampa Bay-New Orleans 52
Best Under: Baltimore-Tennessee 43
Best Team Total: Over 17 ½ Denver Broncos
Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Over 43 ½ Tampa Bay-New Orleans
Under 61 Kansas City-Dallas
Under 52 ½ Oakland-Miami
November 4, 2017
The ‘over’ produced an 8-5 mark last week and outside of one result, it’s fair to say the outcomes were clear-cut. For those bettors on the ‘under’ in the Redskins-Cowboys (46 ½) game, please accept our apologies. The late pick-six touchdown is never tough to stomach but for the individuals who cashed Dallas-Over tickets, congrats! Through eight weeks of the NFL regular season, the ‘over’ holds a 61-57-1 record.
Line Moves
Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday morning based off the Week 9 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.
Atlanta at Carolina: 44 to 42 ½
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: 50 to 52
Indianapolis at Houston: 48 to 46 (Watson Injury)
Kansas City at Dallas: 48 ½ to 53 ½
Dealing with the status of players has been unpredictable this season and we’re dealing with more this weekend. The recent injury to Houston quarterback DeShaun Watson had books scrambling on Thursday for their matchup at home to Indianapolis. Despite the rookie’s absence, the total didn’t take that much of a fall.
“Certainly, Indy’s poor defense is always a factor in the total, but it’s not as if this offense is just humming along. And now you’ve got the Tom Savage situation, which certainly handicaps what Houston can do offensively. I do think this number will come down some before kickoff, but 45 might be the floor,” said Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu.
The other late-breaking news this week came out of Dallas on Friday morning with running back Ezekiel Elliott being allowed to play after he was expected to start serving his six-game suspension.
Cooley added, “I think this is the biggest total move of the NFL season, and it’s shocking to see a number move this much at this point of the season. Both the sharps and squares have aligned, and it’s created a huge liability. I know (or hope) we’ll see this come back down at some point, but it won’t be enough to offset the exposure we have.”
Dallas has watched the ‘over’ cash in its last four games and the club is averaging 33.5 points per game during this span. Kansas City has been a solid ‘over’ bet (5-2-1) this season but make a note that all of the tickets going to the high side took place in games under the lights. This will be the highest total posted in a Chiefs game this season.
Visiting High
Last week, I touched on some home-away trends and Week 9 will feature four teams taking perfect ‘over’ records on the road.
Colts (4-0) – Indy visits Houston. The Colts own the worst scoring defense (30.8 PPG) in the league and the units has been worse on the road (38 PPG).
Rams (3-0) – Los Angeles visits the N.Y. Giants. The Rams are averaging 34.3 PPG outside of California and they posted 33 in a home game played overseas from London.
Redskins (3-0) – Washington visits Seattle. The Redskins are averaging 23.3 PPG in their last three road games vs. teams from the AFC and NFC West Divisions, which includes a 27-point effort at the Rams in Week 2.
Buccaneers (3-0) – Tampa Bay visits New Orleans. The Bucs scoring defense (34 PPG) is the second worst on the road and they are dead last in yards per play allowed (6.9) away from home.
Road System
I touched on a solid total angle that I’ve been following for seasons in Week 6 and it connected. It’s live again in Week 9 with not one but two matchups. What’s the system?
Play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game
In Week 6, San Francisco was playing its third straight road game when it visited Washington. The Redskins won 26-24 and the ‘over’ (46 ½) connected thanks to a late surge. A win is a win, right?
Including that result, this system has watched the ‘over’ go 42-20 (68%) the last 12 seasons.
The two matchups that fit this week are listed below:
Denver at Philadelphia
Atlanta at Carolina
Early Vacation?
I really enjoy following seasonal total trends and my colleague Matt found a great one to follow this year which focuses on games with teams playing before their ‘bye’ week. Through eight weeks, 22 teams have had their bye in the NFL regular season.
Based on our numbers, the ‘under’ has gone 16-6 (73%) in their games before the bye. Keep in mind that we’re double-counting results, so the Patriots-Chargers ‘under’ last week resulted in a 2-0 mark to the low side since both teams fit the system. At the same time, the ‘over’ result in London last Sunday between the Browns and Vikings was a 2-0 ‘over’ result. The other games that went ‘under’ last week were never in doubt as the Bears and Steelers helped the cause. For those of you a little confused, all six of those teams just mentioned are not playing in Week 9.
The four games that would fit this angle in Week 9 would include matchups featuring Kansas City, Oakland, Philadelphia and Baltimore since they’re all on ‘bye’ in Week 10.
For those keeping track, teams playing with rest this season have watched the ‘over’ go 6-4 in their following games. We have six teams coming off the bye this week - Green Bay, Tennessee, L.A. Rams, N.Y. Giants, Arizona and Jacksonville.
Divisional Contests
The ‘over’ went 2-1 in these head-to-head matchups last week and the ‘under’ is 23-11 overall this season in divisional contests. The two games that went high were certainly helped with interceptions, especially the Cowboys-Redskins outcome. In last week’s piece, I mentioned that you might want to look at a vice versa angle in these divisional rematch games. The opposite outcome started out 2-0 and this past Thursday’s game between the Jets and Bills went ‘over’ after the pair played to the ‘under’ in their first meeting.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: The ‘under’ is on a 4-2 run in this series and the two ‘over’ tickets occurred at the Superdome. Tampa Bay has had success playing in the ‘Big Easy’ with the offense posting 24, 26 and 31 points in their last three visits. I don’t want to discredit the Saints defense (20.7 PPG) but they’ve only faced two legit quarterbacks this season (Brady, Stafford). In those games, New Orleans gave up 36 and 38 points. Bucs QB Jameis Winston isn’t in that class but he’s certainly better than Brett Hundley and Mitch Trubisky. New Orleans has watched the ‘over’ go 2-1 at home this season, with the lone ‘under’ hitting last Sunday versus the aforementioned rookie on the Bears.
Atlanta at Carolina: The ‘over’ went 2-0 between the pair last season as the Falcons torched the Panthers for 33 and 48 points. From what we’ve seen from both teams offensively this season, it’s hard to imagine either club getting in that neighborhood on Sunday. The oddsmakers agree and this is the lowest total (42 ½) between the pair since they met in 2011 when Jimmy Clausen was playing QB for Carolina.
Indianapolis at Houston: Even though this game will be played with backup QBs on the field, the recent trend in this series could have you leaning high. Since 2013, the total has gone 4-4 between the pair but the ‘over’ is 4-0 in Houston while the ‘under’ has produced a 4-0 mark in the games play at Indianapolis.
Arizona at San Francisco: This is the only rematch game this week and like the matchup above, it’s featuring a pair of backup QBs (Drew Stanton vs. C.J. Beathard). Arizona defeated San Francisco 18-15 in Week 4 at home and the ‘under’ (43 ½) connected even though there were 10 scores (9 FGs, 1 TD) in the game. The 49ers have seen the ‘over’ go 2-1 at Levi’s Stadium and they’ve helped those results with the worst scoring defense at home (34.7 PPG) this season.
Detroit at Green Bay: (See Below)
Under the Lights
The ‘over’ went 2-1 in Week 8 and the high side has gone 16-10 (62%) this season, which includes this past Thursday’s result between the Bills and Jets. Make a note that TNF (4-0) and MNF (3-0) have been streaking high lately, while the SNF (3-0) is on a run to the low side.
Oakland at Miami: Sticking with the ‘under’ trend just mentioned on Sunday Night, I believe that could be a look again or you might want to pass. The Raiders have been very hard to figure out offensively this season and they’ve scored 10, 10 and 14 in their last three road games. Even worse offensively is Miami, who is ranked last in scoring (13.1), total yards (252.4) and yards per play (4.1). The defense was playing great, but the Dolphins have surrendered 28 and 40 the past two weeks.
Detroit at Green Bay: This is another game where you might want to take the night off, find something else to do productively for three hours. For what it’s worth, the ‘over’ is on a 3-0 run in this series but that was with Aaron Rodgers at QB for Green Bay. Make a note that he accounted for 11 total TDs in those games. The Lions defense looked good in their 20-15 loss at home last Sunday to Pittsburgh and the unit has been better on the road this season. If you’re looking for an angle, Green Bay playing off rest has been a great wager. Since Mike McCarthy became the Packers head coach in 2006, Green Bay has gone 9-2 off the bye and the ‘under’ has gone 8-3 in those games.
Fearless Predictions
Even though I was on the wrong side of the Texans-Seahawks shootout, I could’ve went 3-1 with a couple breaks but in hindsight I could’ve easily been 0-4. The bankroll ($440) is approaching a five-unit deficit as we’ve reached the middle of the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Tampa Bay-New Orleans 52
Best Under: Baltimore-Tennessee 43
Best Team Total: Over 17 ½ Denver Broncos
Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Over 43 ½ Tampa Bay-New Orleans
Under 61 Kansas City-Dallas
Under 52 ½ Oakland-Miami
