Cnotes 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[CNOTES]

NFL opening line report: Unpredictable Panthers open as slight faves over Falcons in Week 9
Patrick Everson


"No one knows which Carolina club will show up for this one. The Panthers are one of the most mercurial teams in the league."


We’re heading into Week 9 of the NFL season, and the whole Ezekiel Elliott situation is still not resolved, which is forcing oddsmakers to tap the brakes a bit. Everson takes a look at opening lines on a quartet of next weekend’s contests, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.


Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys (no line)


Dallas still had Elliott’s services Sunday, and he delivered in a big way on the highway. The star running back racked up 150 rushing yards and two touchdowns, helping the Cowboys (4-3 SU and ATS) top Washington 33-19 as a 3-point favorite. Elliott’s Week 9 status is uncertain at this point.


Kansas City still has some Week 8 work to do, hosting the Denver Broncos on Monday night. The Chiefs (5-2 SU and ATS) got out of the box 5-0 SU and ATS, then lost at home to Pittsburgh and at Oakland.


“The Elliott situation will keep this game a bit muddled until we get clarity on his availability,” Cooley said. “As well, we’ll want to wait and see how the Chiefs fare Monday night. If nothing changes and these teams come into this great matchup as is, then Dallas will be a short favorite.”


Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-1.5)


Atlanta still doesn’t look like the team that reached the Super Bowl last year, but at least Matt Ryan and Co. put a three-game SU and ATS skid in the rearview mirror. The Falcons (5-3 SU, 2-5 ATS) held off the New York Jets 25-20 on Sunday, though they again failed to cash as a 6.5-point chalk.


Carolina has been up-and-down all season, as well, but ended a two-game hiccup in Week 8. The Panthers (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) dropped Tampa Bay 17-3 as a 1.5-point road underdog.


“No one knows which Carolina club will show up for this one. The Panthers are one of the most mercurial teams in the league,” Cooley said. “Atlanta pulled out a quality win this week, but certainly something is amiss with the team. My best guess is that we’ll see some Falcons money, especially from the public, which I think we’d be happy with.”


Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (no line)


Philadelphia might well be the league’s No. 1 team, certainly by looking at the standings. The Eagles (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) have won six and a row and cashed five straight, plowing past San Francisco 33-10 laying 13 points at home Sunday.


As noted above, Denver still has to take a stern Week 8 test on Monday night in Kansas City. The Broncos (3-3 SU and ATS) are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four outings, losing the last two in embarrassing fashion. Denver was a 13.5-point home favorite against the New York Giants and lost outright 23-10, then got bageled at San Diego 21-0 giving 1 point.

“Two teams quickly trending in opposite directions,” Cooley said. “The Eagles look like the NFC’s best team, and we’ll see if Denver can save some face Monday night and get back on track a bit. If nothing outrageous happens to the Broncos on Monday, we’ll open them around touchdown ‘dogs at Philly.”


Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-7)


It took nearly half the season, but Seattle finally caught up to the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West. The Seahawks (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) won a wild one Sunday against Houston, getting a Jimmy Graham touchdown catch in the waning seconds to claim a 41-38 home victory as a 6-point chalk.


Washington is competitive every single week, yet finds itself with a 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS record. The Redskins were within 26-19 Sunday against visiting Dallas, but Kirk Cousins threw a last-minute pick-six, cementing a 33-19 loss as a 3-point pup.


“Unfortunately, the injury bug just keeps biting for Washington,” Cooley said, alluding primarily to the Redskins’ battered offensive line. “But Jay Gruden is a great offensive mind, and he was able to keep his team in the game with half an O-line against Dallas. The public doesn’t back off Seattle, even if the Seahawks aren’t at their best, so we wanted to be generous with this number, especially considering the state the Redskins are in.”

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 9
Monty Andrews


Last season, the Eagles managed a touchdown on less than 50 percent of their red-zone visits; fast-forward to 2017, and they come into Week 9 ranked second in red-zone touchdown rate at 68 percent.


Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5, 39.5)


Bengals QB protection issues vs. Jaguars' sack-happy defense


The Jacksonville Jaguars haven't been the most consistent team in football this season, but they remain very much in the hunt for the AFC South title as they host the Cincinnati Bengals. Jacksonville's four victories have come by at least 21 points, and they're coming off a much-needed bye week following a 27-0 rout of Indianapolis a week earlier. Yet, as impressive as the Jaguars offense has been at times, it's the defense - which has a sizeable advantage this week - that could lead this team to a division crown.


The Bengals' offensive line has struggled to protect quarterback Andy Dalton so far this season, giving up sacks on better than nine percent of dropbacks - the fourth-worst rate in the league. Cincinnati has surrendered 22 total sacks through its first seven games, while their 48 passes defended rank behind only the Arizona Cardinals. The Bengals allowed a sack on just 6.8 percent of their dropbacks last season, and their eight interceptions thrown match their entire 2016 total.


Dalton isn't likely to get much relief this weekend against a Jaguars pass rush considered one of the best in the sport. In addition to recording four defensive touchdowns, 10 interceptions and nine forced fumbles, Jacksonville leads the NFL with a whopping 33 sacks - six more than the second-place Carolina Panthers. The Jaguars have produced a sack on 12.3 percent of opposing dropbacks so far this season, miles ahead of the 5.7-percent rate they recorded last season.


Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants (+3.5, 42)


Rams' drive-extension prowess vs. Giants' third-down doldrums


The Rams carry a two-game winning streak into Sunday afternoon's encounter with a Giants team that might already be looking toward next season. Los Angeles is coming off a bye following Week 7's 33-0 dismantling of the division-rival Arizona Cardinals, and still boasts one of the league's top offenses as we near the midway point of the season. One of the main reasons: An elite third-down offensive showing that runs in stark contrast to the Giants' inability to sustain drives.


Led by an emerging star in quarterback Jared Goff, the Rams have been sensational at keeping the football, converting nearly 49 percent of their third-down opportunities - the best rate in the NFL. Los Angeles went a stunning 13-for-19 on third downs in the one-sided win over the Cardinals, allowing it to retain possession for more than 39 minutes. It's a complete 180-degree turn for the Rams, who finished dead last in 2016 by converting just 31 percent of their third-down chances.


The Giants can sympathize with last year's version of the Rams - in more ways than one. With just one win in its first seven games, New York is off to a nightmare start - and its third-down troubles are a part of that. The Giants have earned a first down or points on just 32.6 percent of their third downs; only San Francisco, Miami and Cleveland have been less prolific. And with Eli Manning down to just a few worthwhile offensive options, that number could dip even further.


Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5, 44)


Broncos' red-zone struggles vs. Eagles' relentless offense


You can't often make the case that a Week 7 game is "must-win", but the Broncos can ill afford to risk falling another game behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West as they visit the red-hot Philadelphia Eagles. Denver comes into the week having lost three in a row, and will need to improve its red zone offense if it has any hope of overtaking the Chiefs atop the division. And even that might not matter against an Eagles team that has been one of the NFL's most dangerous inside its opponents' 20-yard line.


The Broncos are 2 1/2 games back of Kansas City following Monday's 29-19 loss to the Chiefs, and their red-zone offense is at least partly to blame for Denver's recent struggles. The Broncos converted 1-of-3 red-zone trips into touchdowns in the loss to Kansas City, and has scored TDs from inside the opponents' 20-yard line at a 44-percent rate; only Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Arizona have been less prolific in the red zone.


Meanwhile, what a difference a year has made in Philadelphia. Last season, the Eagles managed a touchdown on less than 50 percent of their red-zone visits; fast-forward to 2017, and they come into Week 9 ranked second in red-zone touchdown rate at 68 percent. And there's a good chance of that trend continuing, given that the Eagles have converted on 87.5 percent of red-zone trips over their past three games, and are scoring red-zone touchdowns at a 76.9-percent pace at home.


Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 45)


Redskins' dynamite discipline vs. Seahawks' flag follies


The Washington Redskins have a difficult task ahead of them as they venture to hostile CenturyLink Field for an NFC encounter with the Seattle Seahawks. Washington has just one win over its first three road games, and adding to that total will be tough against a Seattle team that has won each of its first three home games. But Washington might have an equalizer: A pattern of disciplined play that could come in handy against the penalty-happy Seahawks.


Washington has been on its best behavior through seven games, incurring just 38 total penalties for a league-low 291 yards against. The Redskins have been particularly disciplined when they have the ball, picking up as scant 13 offensive penalties for 105 yards. Even in Sunday's 33-19 home defeat at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys, Washington was charged with just five penalties for 32 yards while drawing eight flags for 89 yards against the visitors.


The Seahawks are running neck-and-neck with the Rams for NFC West supremacy, but they'll need to work on their discipline moving forward. Seattle has been flagged an NFL-high 66 times on the season, while the 534 total yards they've surrendered via penalty are sixth-most in the league. The Seahawks also rank last overall in penalty flag differential (minus-22) and penalty yard differential (minus-156). If that trend continues, Washington could make a game of it.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Long Sheet


Week 9


Thursday, November 2


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BUFFALO (5 - 2) at NY JETS (3 - 5) - 11/2/2017, 8:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-2 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 3-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 5


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DENVER (3 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (7 - 1) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA RAMS (5 - 2) at NY GIANTS (1 - 6) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 179-227 ATS (-70.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 179-227 ATS (-70.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 128-179 ATS (-68.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 36-61 ATS (-31.1 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (2 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (5 - 2) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 62-36 ATS (+22.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (3 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (4 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (4 - 3) at CAROLINA (5 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 81-57 ATS (+18.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 6) at HOUSTON (3 - 4) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (4 - 4) at TENNESSEE (4 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 29-51 ATS (-27.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 14-32 ATS (-21.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (3 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 8) - 11/5/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 5-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (3 - 4) at SEATTLE (5 - 2) - 11/5/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 42-66 ATS (-30.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (6 - 2) at DALLAS (4 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (3 - 5) at MIAMI (4 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 50-81 ATS (-39.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
MIAMI is 41-17 ATS (+22.3 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 55-79 ATS (-31.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, November 6


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DETROIT (3 - 4) at GREEN BAY (4 - 3) - 11/6/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 58-84 ATS (-34.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
DETROIT is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 183-129 ATS (+41.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Week 9


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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 2


BUFFALO @ NY JETS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
NY Jets is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
NY Jets is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games




Sunday, November 5


INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 12 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Houston's last 12 games when playing at home against Indianapolis


TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay


BALTIMORE @ TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Baltimore's last 10 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home


ATLANTA @ CAROLINA
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Atlanta's last 21 games
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 8 games when playing Atlanta


CINCINNATI @ JACKSONVILLE
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Jacksonville is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games


LA RAMS @ NY GIANTS
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
NY Giants is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams


DENVER @ PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games
San Francisco is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing Arizona


WASHINGTON @ SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing at home against Washington


KANSAS CITY @ DALLAS
Kansas City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Kansas City is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games at home


OAKLAND @ MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games on the road
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Miami is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Oakland




Monday, November 6


DETROIT @ GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Detroit
Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

NFL trends with Week 9 approaching…….

— Carolina covered twice in its last ten home games.

— Buffalo is 5-1-1 vs spread in its last seven games.

— Colts are 3-7-1 in last 11 games as a divisional road underdog.

— Bengals covered once in last six tries as a road underdog.

— Arizona is 4-14 vs spread in its last 18 games.

— Denver is 9-17 as a non-divisional road underdog.

***************************

Thursday’s six-pack

NFL trends with Week 9 approaching…….

— Jets are 17-7 vs spread in last 24 games as a home underdog.

— Chiefs are 10-3 vs spread in their last 13 games.

— Oakland covered once in its last six games.

— 49ers covered nine of their last 11 divisional games.

— Houston is 10-3-1 in last 14 games as a home favorite.

— Eagles covered nine of their last eleven games.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Thursday's game
Bills (5-2) @ Jets (3-5)— Buffalo is +14 in turnovers; they’ve had 3+ takeaways in their last four games. Bills are 1-2 on road, with all three games decided by 6 or less points. Jets lost last three games by 7-3-5 points; they were outscored 39-13 in 2nd half of those games. Last time Jets trailed at halftime was Week 2. Gang Green is 3-0 allowing 20 or less points, 0-5 when they allow more than 20 points. Buffalo (-8) beat Jets 21-12 in season opener, outrushing Jets 190-38, converting 8-17 on 3rd down; Bills are 6-2 in last eight series games, but lost five of last seven visits here. Three of last four Jet games stayed under the total. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 8-7 vs spread. Since 2014, Buffalo is 1-5-1 vs spread as a road favorite.

Sunday's games
Broncos (3-3) @ Eagles (7-1)— Tough scheduling spot for Broncos, who played in Kansas City Monday night- this is their third week in row on road. Denver lost its last three games, scoring 10-0-3 points; they’re 0-3 on road, losing by 10-21-10 points. In their last four games, Broncos scored xx points on xx red zone drives- their WR’s killed them in KC with dropped balls. Philly won last six games, covered last five; they’re 3-1 vs spread as home favorites, winning home games by 3-27-10-23 points. Home side won last six series games; Denver won last meeting 52-20 in ’13. Broncos lost five of six visits to Philly, with only win in ’86. Over is 4-2 in last six Eagle games. NFC East teams are 2-5 vs spread as non-divisional home favorites; AFC West underdogs are 4-2.

Rams (5-2) @ Giants (1-6)— Rams won four of their last five games; they’re 3-0 in true road games, winning by 2-5-10 points, winning at SF-Dallas-Jax. Giants are 0-3 at home, scoring 10-22-7 points in losses to Lions-Chargers-Seattle. NY is 0-3 in games decided by 5 or less points. Both teams coming off their bye; Giants won seven games in a row against the Rams- they won 17-10 in London LY. Giants’ last loss in series was 15-14 in St Louis in ’01. Giants are 7-2 in last nine post-bye games; Rams are 7-2-1 vs spread in last 10 post-bye games. Over is 5-2 in Ram games. NFC West teams are 7-12 vs spread outside their division; NFC East teams are 11-9, 3-6 at home.

Buccaneers (2-5) @ Saints (5-2)— New Orleans won its last five games (4-1 vs spread); they’re 2-1 at home this year, winning by 14-8 points with loss to Patriots. In three games since their bye, NO ran ball for average of 151.7 ypg, taking heat off defense/Brees. Tampa Bay lost its last four games; they’re 0-3 on road, losing by 17-5-3 points, allowing 34 ppg on road- they’re 2-5 and were favored in 5 of the 7 games. Last two games, Bucs’ opponents converted 18 of 33 3rd down plays. Saints are 9-2 in last 11 games with Tampa, winning five of last six meetings played here. Four of last five Saint games stayed under total; four of Bucs’ last six games went over. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-10-2 vs spread.

Bengals (3-4) @ Jaguars (4-3)— Jax is 4-3 but just 1-2 at home; they haven’t allowed 2nd half TD in their last three games (33-6). Jaguars ran ball for 169-188 yards in last two games; check status on Fournette’s ankle. Jags are 23-42 on 3rd down in last three games. Bengals won three of last four games after an 0-3 start; they’re 1-2 on road, losing by 3 at Green Bay, 15 at Pitt- they won at Cleveland. Cincy is -10 already in turnovers; they haven’t been plus in TO’s in any game this season. Bengals won last four series games, last three all by 10+ points; they’re 3-7 in Jacksonville, winning 30-20/27-10 in last two visits. Jaguars are 6-1 vs spread (4-3 SU) in last seven post-bye games. Four of last six Jaguar games went over total.

Falcons (4-3) @ Panthers (5-3)— This is 3rd week in row on road for Falcons, historical soft spot for NFL teams. Atlanta snapped 3-game skid with rainy win in New Jersey LW; they’re 3-1 on road, with only loss 23-7 in Foxboro- they won at Bears-Lions-Jets. Carolina’s defense hasn’t allowed a TD in its last two games, but their offense has only scored two TD’s, and gave up two in 17-3 loss at Chicago. Panthers are 1-2 at home, with only win 9-3 over Buffalo; they’re -8 in turnovers in three losses, +1 in their wins. Panthers averaged less than 5 yards/pass attempt in each of last 3 games. Atlanta won its last three games with Carolina by 7-15-17 points; they hammered Panthers twice LY, 48-33/33-16. Teams are 7-7 in last 14 series games played here.

Colts (2-6) @ Texans (3-4)— Rookie QB Watson is tearing NFL apart; Texans scored 33+ points in their last five games, scoring 21 TD’s on their last 60 drives. Six of their last 11 TD plays were 20+ yards. Houston is 2-2 at home, 1-1 as a home favorite. Colts lost last three games despite a +3 TO ratio in those games- they’re 0-4 on road, 1-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 37-28-1-14 points. Indy allowed 7+ yards/pass attempt in four of their last five games, but their offense has also given up five TD”s to opposing defenses this year. Houston won three of last four series games, but Colts won three of last four visits here, albeit with Luck at QB. Last five Houston games went over, as did five of last six Indy games.

Ravens (4-4) @ Titans (4-3)— Titans are off a bye, Ravens are off a Thursday win, so two rested teams here. Baltimore allowed 17 or less points in its four wins, with a +10 turnover ratio- they allowed 24+ in their losses, with a -5 turnover ratio. Ravens are 2-1 in true road games, with only loss 24-16 in Minnesota- they won at Cincy/Oakland. Tennessee scored only six TD’s on 46 drives in their last four games, but they won last two games, holding Colts/Browns to one TD on 19 drives. Titans are 2-1 at home- they scored 33+ points in 3 of their 4 wins- they’re 1-3 when scoring less than 33, with a 12-9 win over the Browns. Tennessee is 2-5 in its last seven post-bye tilts. Teams split last eight series games; their last meeting was in 2014. AFC South non-divisional hone teams are 5-3 vs spread. Only one Raven game was decided by less than 8 points.

Cardinals (3-4) @ 49ers (0-8)— Stanton gets his first start of year at QB for Arizona; he is 8-5 as an NFL starter, 6-3 with Redbirds. Cardinals won five games in a row vs 49ers; they beat SF 18-15 (-6.5) in OT in first meeting in Week 4, scoring only TD of game on pass to Fitzgerald in last minute of OT. Arizona won 19-13/33-21 in last two visits here. 49ers traded for Garoppolo Monday but he won’t be ready here; 49ers lost last two games by combined 73-20; they’re 5-3 vs spread, 1-2 as a home underdog this year, with home losses by 20-2-30 points. Arizona won three of last four post-bye games. Over is 3-1 in 49ers’ last four games, under is 5-1 in Arizona’s last six games. Arizona allowed 30+ points in its last three games.

Redskins (3-4) @ Seahawks (5-2)— 8 of 15 TD’s Seattle allowed this year came on plays of 20+ yards; they’re susceptible to big plays, as Texans showed Sunday, but they’ve also won their last four games (3-1 vs spread). Only 5 of 17 Redskin TD’s have been on plays of 20+ yards. Washington had three new starters on OL last week; they’re 1-2 on road, losing by 9 in KC, 10 in Philly- this is their first game on artificial turf this year. Seahawks added LT Brown in a trade Monday; they’re 3-0 at home, 1-2 as home favorites, with wins by 3-28-3 points. Seattle ran ball for just 66.3 ypg in last three games. Seattle won four of last six series games; three of those four wins were playoff games. Redskins won last two visits here, but last one was in 2011.

Chiefs (5-2) @ Cowboys (4-3)— Ezekiel Elliott’s 6-game suspension starts here; how does that change the Dallas offense? Chiefs won division game Monday night; they’re 3-1 on road, losing 31-30 at Oakland- they won at Foxboro-Chargers-Houston, scoring 34.5 ppg. Dallas scored 40-33 points in winning both its game since their bye- they allowed 42-35-35 points in their three losses, are 4-0 when allowing less than 35 points. Over is 5-1-2 in Chief games, 4-0 in Cowboys’ last four games. Chiefs franchise started out as the Dallas Texans in 1960; they’re 1-4 at the Cowboys, with only win in ’75- their last visit here was in ’05. NFC East teams are 3-6 vs spread at home when they venture outside the division.

Raiders (3-5) @ Dolphins (4-3)— Oakland lost five of last six games, losing last three games on road, by 17-6-20 points. Raiders scored 26+ points in their wins, 17 or less in their five losses. Miami is 4-3, but they’ve scored total of six points in losses by 14-20-40 points. Dolphins played on Thursday LW, so they’ve got time to rest. Cutler is expected back at QB here; Miami is 2-0 at home, with home wins by 6-3 over Titans/Jets, giving up 10-28 points. Miami won five in row, 8 of last 9 meetings with Oakland; their last meeting was in London in ’14. Raiders lost 7 of last 8 visits here- their last win in Miami was in ’07. Under is 5-2 in Dolphin games, 1-3 in last four Oakland games. AFC East teams are 12-7-1 vs spread outside their division.

Monday's game
Lions (3-4) @ Packers (4-3)— Detroit is a frustrating team; they didn’t score TD LW vs Steelers, week after their OFFENSE gave up three TD’s in a 52-38 loss in Superdome. Lions lost 22 of last 23 visits to Lambeau Field, but door in ajar here with Rodgers injured. Last time Detroit was favored in Green Bay? 2011, when Rodgers was also hurt— Pack still won, 45-41 on a frigid day. Green Bay scored 10-17 points in losing last two games, averaging 3.8/3.0 yds/pass attempt, as Rodgers’ absence obviously hurts. Lions gained 482 yards LW but didn’t score a TD- they scored nine points on five red zone drives, a putrid performance- Detroit lost its last three games, are 2-1 on road. Packers were outscored 28-3 in second half of their last two games.

 

[CNOTES]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 9 NFL lines are going to move

The Los Angeles Rams are allowing just 11 points per game over their last three contests and are coming off a shutout win over the Arizona Cardinals.

Game to bet on now

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4)

The Jags have quietly and efficiently built the best defense in the league. They’re the best against the pass, first in QB sacks, tops in points allowed and sixth in total yards allowed.

They do give up some yards on the ground, and that’s where the 3-5 Bengals will have to attack in they want to hang in and remain viable in the AFC North.

Oddly, the Jags seem to be worse (1-2) at home than they are on the road (3-1), but that doesn’t mean much considering the small sample size.

Jacksonville needs to keep pace with Tennessee, which has won two straight and appears to be getting better. There’s an opportunity to bet both sides and win both ways (also known as middle) with the line opening at -2 in some books and moving to -4 in others.

Game to wait on

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (+2.5)

The Dolphins have been outscored by an average of nearly nine points a game but somehow have managed to stay afloat in a competitive AFC East division.

Much of their ugly point differential is attributable to that 40-0 turd they dropped at Baltimore, but many teams struggle playing on Thursday night.

At any rate, Miami will benefit from a few extra days of rest and will be facing Raiders team that will be making its second straight cross-country trip to the East Coast.

The problem is at quarterback, where Jay Cutler has been out with a rib injury. He’ll play if he can, but if he can’t go, then Matt Moore (zero TDs, two INTs vs. the Ravens) will be thrown to the wolves again.

It might be a good idea to hang on a bit, as this game might be a PK if there is good news on Cutler.

Total to watch

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants (43.5)

Can it get any worse for the Giants? They were out of the playoffs before September was over, their best offensive player (Odell Beckham Jr.) is done for the year and there is talk that it might be time to sit down Eli Manning and get a look at a backup who might be competing for the No. 1 job when training camp starts next summer.

Yikes.

The Giants are one of six teams averaging fewer than 300 total years a game, and appear to be catching the Rams at a bad time. LA is allowing just 11 points per game over its last three contests and is coming off a shutout win over the Cardinals.

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 9
November 1, 2017


THURSDAY, NOV. 2
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BUFFALO at NY JETS (NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Jets on 5-0-1 spread run, though Bills 5-1-1 vs. number in 2017. Jets had lost and failed to cover five straight in series before sweep LY. Jets 5-0 vs. line at home TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Jets, based on team trends.


SUNDAY, NOV. 5
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DENVER at PHILADELPHIA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Broncos on 3-7-1 spread slump since late LY, also no covers last five on road. Birds 9-3 vs. line at Linc since LY.
Tech Edge: Eagles, based on team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
L.A. RAMS at NY GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Eli 0-3 vs. line at home TY. Also “under” 16-7 in reg. season since LY. Rams 4-0 SU away TY and 3-1 vs. line, though “over” 7-2 last nine since late last season.
Tech Edge: Rams, based on team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints rolling with five SU wins (4-1 vs. line) in row. Bucs 0-5-1 spread skid, 1-7-1 last nine vs. line.
Tech Edge: Saints, based on team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CINCINNATI at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags 0-2 vs. line at home TY (as opposed to 4-1 away), now 1-6 last seven vs. spread at EverBank Field. Jax also “over” 23-12 since early in 2015 season. Cincy only 3-8-1 vs. spread last 12 away (though 2-1 TY), Marvin Lewis also just 2-6 as dog since LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on Jags “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ATLANTA at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs wobbling with no covers last four TY, now on 2-6 spread slump. Also 1-3 vs. line away after 7-1 spread mark as visitor LY. Falcs also “under” 5-2 TY after 16-3 “over” LY. Cam 0-3 vs. line at home TY and 1-6 last seven vs. spread in Charlotte. “Unders” 7-1 last eight meetings.
Tech Edge: Slight to Falcs and “under,” based on recent series and “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Colts 1-4 vs. line last five away from Lucas Oil. Indy also now “over” last five on road, Houston “over” five straight this season, and Texans 5-1 last six vs. line TY.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Texans, based on “totals” and team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BALTIMORE at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Ravens 2-4 last six vs. line but big wins in those two Ws. But Harbaugh only 3-8 vs. points last 11 away. Titans 6-1 vs. spread last seven at home, “over” 17-8-1 last 26.
Tech Edge: Titans and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Niners only 3-8 vs. line at Levi’s since LY. SF also “over” 7-4 since late LY. Big Red 1-6 vs. line TY, 4-13 last 17 on board.
Tech Edge: Slight to 49ers and “over,” based on Card woes and “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
WASHINGTON at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Jay Gruden “over” 22-6 since late 2015. Skins on 4-game spread skid now but still 10-4 vs. line last 14 away.
Tech Edge: "Over” and slight to Skins, based on “totals” and team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
KANSAS CITY at DALLAS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Andy Reid 14-3 vs. line last 17 in reg. season away from Arrowhead. Chiefs also “over” 6-1 last 7 away. Cowboys 2-5 vs. points last 7 at Arlington, “over” 8-4-1 last 13 at home.
Tech Edge: Chiefs and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
OAKLAND at MIAMI (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Gase 4-2-2 vs. spread last eight at home. Dolphins also “over” two straight TY , 15-8 “over” since LY (3-4 “over” TY). Raid-uhs no covers last 3 away TY after 11-2 vs. points previous 13 in reg.-season away from Coliseum.
Tech Edge: Slight to Dolphins, based on recent trends.


MONDAY, NOV. 6
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DETROIT at GREEN BAY (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Pack no covers last two since Rodgers went down, had covered 6 of 7 previous at Lambeau. Pack “over” 9-2 last 11 but “under” last two. After losing for firs time since ‘91 at home vs. Lions in 2015, Pack has won and covered last three in series. Stafford “over” 6-3 last 9 reg.-season since late 2016.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday's Best Bet
November 1, 2017


NFL Week 9 TNF Best Bet (NFL Network, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets


When oddsmakers came out with NFL season win totals in the summer and had the Buffalo Bills at 6.5 and the New York Jets at 3.5, there couldn't have been much enthusiasm around the league for this primetime showcase game to open up Week 9 between the two.


But both AFC East rivals have largely outperformed those projections so far, and after the Bills made the move to go and get WR Kelvin Benjamin at the trade deadline 48 hours before kickoff, this game even has some potential playoff implications attached to it now.


Buffalo is already 1-0 SU and ATS against the Jets after they beat New York 21-12 in Week 1, so will they get the season sweep or will New York step up and outperform oddsmakers lines once again?

Bookmaker.eu Odds: Buffalo (-3); Total set at 43


Buffalo's decision to get WR Kelvin Benjamin was one that's a clear sign the Bills management looked at the current landscape of the AFC this year and decided they were going to “go for it” in terms of a playoff run this year. The Bills organization hasn't been in the playoffs since they lost the “Music City Miracle” 1999 Wildcard game, so fans of this organization are thrilled right now that their team has finally stepped up in 2017 to end this disastrous streak.


The Benjamin addition addresses a clear position of need for the Bills, and while his impact won't likely be huge with his new team on a short week, bettors should expect big things from Benjamin in Buffalo's passing attack going forward.

Speaking of passing attacks, New York's aerial attack is nowhere near as bad as everyone expected it to be at the beginning of the year. QB Josh McCown is 14th in the league in passing yards (1840 yards), has a 70% completion rate overall, and is 11th in the NFL in TD passes with 11. Those TD numbers have been put up despite two games of not throwing a single TD pass – including Week 1 vs this Buffalo team – but with 9 TD's to only 4 INT's the past four weeks, it seems like McCown has finally found a bit of a groove.


Buffalo's secondary was torched by Tampa's QB Jameis Winston to the tune of 384 yards and 3 TD's two weeks ago, and as home underdogs with revenge on their minds, the Jets would serve themselves well to be a bit more aggressive and air things out a bit more here.


So while most of the talk coming into this game is how it's two weeks in a row with a highly unattractive matchup for a nationally televised game, I am actually quite interested to see how this game plays out. Last week's uninteresting Miami/Baltimore game was billed in a similar fashion – and it was definitely rough to watch at times – that game still cashed 'over' tickets for bettors and I believe this AFC East showdown will do the same.


For one, both teams will find their way onto the scoreboard this week (unlike Miami in Week 8), and although the Jets did lose the first meeting with Buffalo in Week 1, it's not like they didn't move the ball. The Jets are also a much better looking bunch offensively since that Week 1 performance, and with Buffalo being outgained in total yards for six straight weeks – a possible reason to take the points with New York for you side bettors – McCown and company should be able to put 20+ up on the Bills.


Buffalo will be anxious to show off their new offensive weapon in whatever capacity they can, and with a 7-3 O/U run in their last 10 against losing teams, and a 5-1 O/U mark after allowing 14 or fewer points, there are some solid trends backing a high scoring game here. Five of the past seven times these two have played in New York the 'over' has cashed as well, and with a total of 43, it's not like we need a dramatic shootout to get there.


When you add in the angle of division rematch games looking to flip flop the results from the first meeting supporting an 'over' play here, and Buffalo on a 10-1 O/U run as favorites of less then 4 points, I think we see another TNF game that nobody is really excited to watch turn into a relative scoring fest. We've already seen that be the case with Week 3's LA Rams/San Francisco TNF game and last week's contest between Miami and Baltimore.


And even though there has been plenty of talk about how bad short weeks are for NFL players and teams (which they are) it hasn't seemingly affected scoring this year as much as it has in year's past. Including Week 1's season opener between KC and New England, TNF games have a record of 6-2 O/U this year and we should be able to add another 'over' to that tally come Friday morning.


Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

Best Bet: Over 43 points

 

[CNOTES]

Week 9 Game Scout: Bills at Jets
November 2, 2017


BUFFALO BILLS (5-2) AT NEW YORK JETS (3-5)


KICKOFF: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET, MetLife Stadium. TV: CBS, NFLN, Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson and Jay Feely (field reporters).


SERIES HISTORY: 114th regular-season meeting. Bills lead series, 60-53. The Bills beat the Jets 21-12 on opening day, behind two touchdown passes from Tyrod Taylor and 159 all-purpose yards from LeSean McCoy. Despite winning only five games last season, the Jets swept Buffalo for the first time since 2011. Still, the Bills have won six of the last eight, including two of the last three at MetLife Stadium. This is also the third straight year the teams will meet on a Thursday night; the road teams won the first two, 2015 in New Jersey and 2016 in Buffalo. The only postseason game between the Bills and Jets was in the wild-card round in 1981, a 31-27 Buffalo win at Shea Stadium.


KEYS TO THE GAME: Big news going into this intrastate battle is that the Bills punched up their offense by acquiring wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin from the Carolina Panthers for two draft choices prior to Tuesday's trading deadline. Benjamin has 32 receptions for 475 yards and two touchdowns this season. The move immediately improves the Buffalo passing game. The team doesn't have a single wide receiver with 200 yards after they traded top wideout Sammy Watkins to the Los Angeles Rams before the season. In 40 NFL games, Benjamin has 168 catches for 2,424 yards and 18 touchdowns.


The Bills' defense stifled the Jets on opening day in Buffalo, limiting Josh McCown and Co. to 11 first downs and 214 yards, 38 on the ground. RB Matt Forte was held to 16 yards and, after he complained about his lack of usage last week against the Atlanta Falcons, the Jets might try to get Forte more involved. If that happens, the Bills will be ready as they have been excellent against the run all season, ranking third in the NFL. When McCown passes, the Bills need to put some pressure on because that has not been a strong suit; they rank 29th in sacks per pass attempt.


Buffalo RB LeSean McCoy had a big day in the first game, with 159 yards from scrimmage. After slipping into a four-week funk, McCoy has been dynamic in the last two, totaling 242 yards rushing. The Bills would love to pound the Jets on the ground as New York ranks 27th against the rush and may be playing without DE Muhammad Wilkerson, who is battling a couple of injuries.


MATCHUPS TO WATCH:


--Jets TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins vs. Bills linebackers. The Bills did not face Seferian-Jenkins in the opener as he was serving a suspension. Since activated, he has become the Jets' top receiver, with 31 catches, though his average is just 6.5 yards per reception. The Bills' linebackers aren't great in coverage, though, and SS Micah Hyde will have to play a role in covering Seferian-Jenkins.


--Bills RT Jordan Mills vs. Jets DE Leonard Williams. Mills is the weak link on Buffalo's offensive line, and Williams is the stud on the Jets' front, especially with Muhammad Wilkerson slowed by injury. The Jets will rely on Williams to put heat on Tyrod Taylor, and Mills has to hold up. It will also be vital in the run game, too, that Mills at least gets some push on Williams and gets him moving the way he wants.


PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Bills LB Matt Milano. He has burst on the scene is forging a reputation as a ballhawk in the Bills' defense. He took over as the starter when Ramon Humber went down with a thumb injury in Week 4 against Atlanta. Since then, he has one interception, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery and a return for a touchdown, a 40-yarder last week against Oakland. Milano also has been in on 14 tackles, two for lost yardage. The fifth-round pick was expected to be a special-teams player and backup this season, but he has seized the opportunity to play. When Humber returns, possibly in two weeks, coach Sean McDermott may have a tough call to make.


FAST FACTS: The Bills improved to 5-2 with a 34-14 win over Oakland last week. Buffalo is aiming to close the first half of the season with a 6-2 record, which would be the team's best start since 1993 (7-1). ... Buffalo leads the NFL with a plus-14 turnover differential and is tied for the league lead with 17 takeaways. ... Bills S Micah Hyde ranks first in the NFL with five interceptions and has four interceptions in his past four games. Hyde's five interceptions are the most by a Bills player through seven games since Jairus Byrd (five) in 2009. ... Jets QB Josh McCown ranks second in the NFL with a 70.5 completion percentage (179 of 254). McCown has posted a completion percentage of at least 60 percent and thrown multiple touchdown passes in four consecutive games -- making him the first player in franchise history to accomplish the feat. ... Jets WR Robby Anderson had six catches for a career-high 104 yards -- his first 100-yard game -- and a touchdown last week against Atlanta.


PREDICTION: The Bills had enough firepower to jettison the Jets before adding WR Kelvin Benjamin. Home field won't even be much of an advantage for Jets.

OUR PICK: Bills, 35-21.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel


Week 9


Thursday, November 2

Buffalo @ NY Jets


Game 307-308
November 2, 2017 @ 8:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
131.435
NY Jets
135.070
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 3 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 3 1/2
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+3 1/2); Over




Sunday, November 5

Denver @ Philadelphia


Game 451-452
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Denver
130.414
Philadelphia
136.531
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 6
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 9
43
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+9); Over


LA Rams @ NY Giants


Game 453-454
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
135.530
NY Giants
134.150
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 1 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 3 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+3 1/2); Under


Tampa Bay @ New Orleans


Game 455-456
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
132.667
New Orleans
137.064
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 4 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 7
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+7); Under


Cincinnati @ Jacksonville


Game 457-458
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
129.765
Jacksonville
137.918
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 8
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 4 1/2
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(-4 1/2); Under


Atlanta @ Carolina


Game 459-460
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
136.214
Carolina
130.345
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 6
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
Pick
44
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
Under


Indianapolis @ Houston


Game 461-462
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
120.260
Houston
140.952
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 20 1/2
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 13
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-13); Over


Baltimore @ Tennessee


Game 463-464
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
127.796
Tennessee
134.419
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 6 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 3
43
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-3); Over


Arizona @ San Francisco


Game 465-466
November 5, 2017 @ 4:05 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
122.638
San Francisco
122.286
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
Even
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 2 1/2
39
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+2 1/2); Over


Washington @ Seattle


Game 467-468
November 5, 2017 @ 4:05 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Washington
134.374
Seattle
135.883
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 1 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 7 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+7 1/2); Over


Kansas City @ Dallas


Game 469-470
November 5, 2017 @ 4:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
140.489
Dallas
133.073
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 7 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
Pick
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
Over


Oakland @ Miami


Game 471-472
November 5, 2017 @ 8:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
130.579
Miami
121.724
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 9
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-3); Over




Monday, November 6

Detroit @ Green Bay


Game 473-474
November 6, 2017 @ 8:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
137.795
Green Bay
130.270
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 7 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 2 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-2 1/2); Over

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Thursday, November 2


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Bills at Jets
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+3, 42.5)


The Buffalo Bills aim to grab a share of the division lead while giving the spiraling New York Jets plenty of space in the cellar on Thursday, when the AFC East rivals meet at MetLife Stadium. Buffalo, which is off to its best start since 2008, has won two in a row to remain one-half game behind first-place New England while New York has dropped three in a row following a promising 3-2 start.


Bills rookie coach Sean McDermott was all smiles this week and added he's "extremely proud" of his club but cautioned that "nobody gives out awards for 5-2." Perhaps, but Buffalo owns a league-best plus-14 turnover margin and is third in the league with 115 points allowed, and continued opportunistic defensive play like that could go a long way in helping the team end its 17-season playoff drought. The Jets have been rather generous with the ball this season, committing 14 turnovers (seven interceptions, seven fumbles), including Jeremy Kerley's costly muffed punt in Sunday's 25-20 setback against Atlanta. "Too many mistakes in the fourth quarter," New York coach Todd Bowles told reporters. "Can't happen. Can't put the ball on the ground. Can't have timely mistakes."

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

POWER RANKINGS: Bills (-1.5) - Jets (+3.5) + home field (-3) = Bills -2

LINE HISTORY: The Bills opened as 3.5-point road favorites and that number was bet down slightly to the key number of 3. The total hit betting boards at 42 and was bumped up a full point to 43 early in the week before dropping slightly to 42.5 on Thursday morning.

INJURY REPORT:


Bills - S J. Poyer (Probable, Knee), G R. Incognito (Probable, Ankle), C E. Wood (Probable, Ankle), CB E. Gaines (Doubtful, Hamstring), TE C. Clay (Doubtful, Knee), LB R. Humber (Out Indefinitely, Thumb), S C. Anderson (Out, Arm), TE K. Towbridge (I-R, Ankle).


Jets - T B. Shell (Questionable, Neck), CB B. Skrine (Questionable, Concussion), CB M. Claiborne (Questionable, Foot), RB M. Forte (Questionable, Knee), DL M. Wilkerson (Questionable, Shoulder), S T. Brooks (Questionable, Hamstring), OL B. Qvale (Questionable, Toe), WR J. Kerley (Questionable, Possible Suspension), FB L. Thomas (Out, Concussion), LB L. Mauldin (Questionable, Back), TE J. Leggett (Out, Knee), CB X. Coleman (I-R, Shoulder), WR C. Peake (Out, Ankle), LB D. Donahue (Out, Elbow), LB E. Robinson (I-R, Groin), TE C. Gragg (I-R, Knee), WR Q. Enunwa (I-R, Neck), S D. Middleton (I-R, Pectoral), CB B. Keeton (I-R, Knee), CB J. Clark (I-R, Knee), WR B. Estime (I-R, Achilles), WR D. Smith (I-R, Knee).

WEATHER REPORT:


Low 60s / minimal winds (6-7mph) / 2% chance of precipitation

ABOUT THE BILLS (5-2 SU, 5-1-1 ATS, 3-4 O/U): LeSean McCoy recorded season highs in carries (27) and rushing yards (151) while registering his third touchdown in two games during Sunday's 34-14 romp over Oakland. The versatile 29-year-old added at least six receptions for the fourth time this season and rolled up 159 yards from scrimmage in Buffalo's season-opening 21-12 win over New York. Tyrod Taylor, who has impressed McDermott with a pair of strong performances since the team's bye week, threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns in Buffalo's 37-31 setback against New York on Sept. 15, 2016. The Bills added a jolt to their passing game by acquiring wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin (32 receptions, 475 yards, two touchdowns) from Carolina for two draft choices prior to Tuesday's trading deadline.

ABOUT THE JETS (3-5 SU, 5-2-1 ATS, 4-4 O/U): Frustrations are mounting as the losses pile up for New York, which saw veteran Matt Forte openly question the play-calling of offensive coordinator John Morton as the team appeared to abandon the run in the rainy and sloppy conditions versus the Falcons. Josh McCown, who recorded his highest completion percentage of the season in that contest (26-of-33, 78.8 percent), has thrown nine touchdown passes in his last four games after being limited to three in his first four. Robby Anderson, who leads the team with 435 receiving yards, has found the end zone in back-to-back weeks.

TRENDS:


* Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Jets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 9-1 in Bills last 10 games on fieldturf.
* Under is 5-1 in Jets last 6 vs. AFC East.
* Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The road fave Bills are picking up 64 percent of the action on the spread and Over is grabbing 51 percent of the totals selections.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL THURSDAY NIGHT GOM # 1


THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 2
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


BUF at NYJ 08:25 PM

NYJ +3.0 **********


U 43.0

 

[CNOTES]

Jets upset Bills 34-21 behind Forte TDs
November 2, 2017


EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) Matt Forte ran for two touchdowns four days after complaining the Jets didn't run the ball enough, and an overwhelming defense sacked Tyrod Taylor seven times Thursday night in New York's 34-21 demolition of the Buffalo Bills.


Buffalo (5-3) came in having scored 64 points in its last two wins, but self-destructed with turnovers and miscues. New York (4-5), which snapped a three-game slide in which it held leads in each defeat, looked more like the challenger to New England in the AFC East.


Forte scored on runs of 10 and 5 yards and had 14 carries for 77 yards. Augmenting that was Bilal Powell with a 51-yard burst and 74 yards on nine carries. Quarterback Josh McCown got in on the fun with a 10-yard scramble to open the scoring and New York rushed for 194 yards overall.


Jordan Jenkins had two of the Jets' sacks as they never allowed Buffalo's offense to get on track.


Indeed, mistakes were the Bills' trademark.


Buffalo made a key error on New York's second touchdown drive. Cedric Thornton sacked McCown, but grabbed his face mask. The 15-yard penalty, which followed a 20-yard pass to Jermaine Kearse and a 22-yard run by Forte, led to Robby Anderson beating double coverage for a 25-yard TD reception.


Forte's 10-yard run made it 24-7 and came one play after Powell broke four tackles on his 51-yard jaunt that featured slick moves and plenty of speed.


The Bills hurt themselves further when Nick O'Leary fumbled on a strange play. The tight end caught Taylor's third-down pass and fell to the ground untouched. He delayed, heard no whistle, and got up. But the ball then was stripped by rookie safety Marcus Maye and recovered by fellow rookie safety Jamal Adams.


Adding to the miscues, Bills DE Jerry Hughes drew a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for mouthing off to an official - during a timeout, no less - on the ensuing Jets drive.


Taylor also fumbled when sacked for the sixth time, and Forte's 5-yard TD run followed. And even when the Bills recovered a late onside kick, they were flagged for offside.


New York opened the scoring - the fourth straight game it has led early - after some strong defense pinned Buffalo near its goal line. A punt set up the Jets near midfield and they used eight plays to score.


McCown, looking very spry for a 38-year-old QB, went in untouched down the left side on a scramble for a 7-0 Jets lead.


Buffalo matched that, aided by Taylor's 18-yard scramble on third down. Rookie Zay Jones caught his first pro TD, an 11-yarder when he got wide open over the middle.


An offensive pass interference call on Austin Sefarian-Jenkins TD catch negated the tight end's TD early in the second quarter and the Jets settled for Chandler Catanzaro's 45-yard field goal to retake the lead. He later hit a 32-yarder.


The Jets found a pass rush that was missing in action most of the year. They came in with 11, which was last among teams that had played eight games.


Buffalo scored two late touchdowns to make the final margin less lopsided.


J-E-T-S


Fireman Ed, once the team's unofficial cheerleader, led the J-E-T-S chant for the first time this season. It got pretty loud, too, even though there were several thousand empty seats at MetLife Stadium.


INJURIES


Bills: Rookie Jones, who was having a fine first half with four catches for 40 yards and a touchdown, was tripped by cornerback Buster Skrine and injured his right leg and was helped off. Jones, Buffalo's second-round pick, returned for the second half. Running back Taiwan Jones hurt his left arm in a scramble for a fourth-quarter onside kick.


Jets: WR Jeremy Kerley left in the first quarter with a foot injury. LB Bruce Carter (hamstring) was sidelined in the second half.


UP NEXT

Bills: Host New Orleans on Nov. 12.

Jets: Visit Tampa Bay on Nov. 12.

 

[CNOTES]

Pick Six - Week 9
November 2, 2017

Week 8 Record: 4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS
Overall Record: 25-23 SU, 21-26-1 ATS

Broncos at Eagles (-7 ½, 43) – 1:00 PM EST


Denver
Record: 3-4 SU, 2-4-1 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1


The Broncos have fallen apart following a 3-1 start by dropping three straight games, while scoring 19 points or less in five consecutive contests. Denver has pulled the plug on quarterback Trevor Siemian following Monday night’s 29-19 setback at Kansas City, as Brock Osweiler is back in the saddle for the Broncos. Osweiler last started for Denver in the Super Bowl winning season of 2015 before signing with the Texans. Denver is winless in three road games, while losing seven of its past nine contests away from Sports Authority Field.


Philadelphia
Record: 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 5/1


The Eagles keep rolling following a 33-10 rout of the winless 49ers to pick up their sixth consecutive victory. Philadelphia has covered in five straight games, while owning a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS record at Lincoln Financial Field this season. Quarterback Carson Wentz has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four straight games, while busting the 28-point mark in each of those victories. The Eagles are hosting the Broncos for the first time since 2009 when Philadelphia edged Denver, 30-27 as seven-point favorites.


Best Bet: Broncos +7 ½

Rams (-3 ½, 42) at Giants – 1:00 PM EST


Los Angeles
Record: 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 18/1


The Rams return from the bye week fresh off a 33-0 shutout of the Cardinals in London back in Week 7 to pick up their fifth win of the season. Last season, Los Angeles finished 4-12, so this team has already exceeded their win total from 2016 as their next two opponents are currently below the .500 mark (Giants and Texans). The Rams have stepped up defensively of late by allowing 33 points in their last three games, while finishing off a three-game stretch away from the Coliseum.


New York
Record: 1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1


The Giants are also off their bye week, but New York couldn’t put together enough offense to beat Seattle in a 24-7 setback two weeks ago. New York is in a stretch of three consecutive games against NFC West opponents (at San Francisco next week), as the Giants beat the Rams last season in London, 17-10, the fourth straight win in the series since 2008. The Giants seek their first home victory following an 0-3 SU/ATS start at Met Life Stadium after closing last season with six straight wins in New Jersey.


Best Bet: Rams -3 ½

Bengals at Jaguars (-5 ½, 39) – 1:00 PM EST


Cincinnati
Record: 3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1


It hasn’t been a pretty start to the season for Cincinnati, but the Bengals have surged of late by winning three of their past four games to pull within one game of .500. Granted, two of those wins have come against Cleveland and Indianapolis, but the Bengals will take this stretch over the 0-3 start to the season. In last Sunday’s one-point win over the Colts, the Bengals needed a 16-yard interception return for a touchdown by Carlos Dunlap in the fourth quarter to deny Indianapolis its first road victory of the season.


Jacksonville
Record: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1


Jacksonville is the only team in the league to own this distinction, alternating SU/ATS wins and losses through the first seven weeks. The Jaguars are coming off a 27-0 shutout of the Colts in Week 7 to easily cash as three-point favorites, while limiting an opponent to less than 10 points for the fourth time this season. Jacksonville will try to get on track at home, where it is 0-2 SU/ATS at EverBank Field, and owns a 1-10 record the past 11 home contests since 2015.


Best Bet: Bengals +5 ½

Falcons (-1, 43 ½) at Panthers – 1:00 PM EST


Atlanta
Record: 4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1


Atlanta snapped a three-game skid to avoid falling below .500 in last Sunday’s 25-20 victory over the Jets. The Falcons failed to cover for the fourth straight week, but the offense finally busted out as Matt Ryan tossed a pair of touchdown passes, while the ground game racked up 140 yards. Atlanta has yet to play an NFC South opponent this season, as the Falcons compiled a 5-1 division record last season, including a sweep of the Panthers.


Carolina
Record: 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1


The Panthers seem like a sinking ship in spite of a 5-3 record as top target Kelvin Benjamin was dealt to the Bills this week. Carolina ended a two-game losing streak with a 17-3 triumph at Tampa Bay to improve to 4-1 on the road. The Panthers need to improve their home mark, which sits at 1-2 after losing to the Saints and Eagles at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina owns a perfect 3-0 ATS mark in the underdog role, while going 6-2 ATS when receiving points since the start of 2016.

Best Bet: Falcons -1

Redskins at Seahawks (-7, 45) – 4:05 PM EST


Washington
Record: 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1


Things haven’t gone well for the Redskins since 2-1 start, who have lost three of their past four games with the lone victory coming against the winless 49ers by two points. Washington is in the midst of an 0-4 ATS streak, capped off by recent divisional losses to Philadelphia and Dallas. The Redskins have been lit up during this stretch by allowing 29, 24, 34, and 33 points, resulting in four consecutive OVERS. Washington makes its first trip to Seattle since 2011 when it beat the Seahawks, 23-17, but have lost the last two matchups at home in the 2012 playoffs and 2014 regular season.


Seattle
Record: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1


The Seahawks have rebounded from a 1-2 start by winning four straight games, highlighted by a thrilling 41-38 triumph over the Texans last Sunday. Seattle failed to cash as six-point favorites, but Russell Wilson rallied the Seahawks with a late touchdown pass to Jimmy Graham, finishing off a 452-yard, four touchdown performance. Even though Seattle’s defense allowed more points to Houston (38) than it had in its previous three victories (35), the Seahawks improved to 11-1 in their past 12 games at CenturyLink Field.


Best Bet: Redskins +7

Chiefs at Cowboys (-1, 51 ½) – 4:25 PM EST


Kansas City
Record: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1


The Chiefs put their brief two-game losing streak behind them in Monday’s 29-19 home victory over the Broncos as seven-point favorites. Kansas City was outgained for the third straight game, but the Chiefs improved to 2-1 in the AFC West and 3-1 SU/ATS at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs started 3-0 on the road, including impressive showings at New England and Houston before a last-second loss at Oakland in Week 7. Kansas City heads to Dallas for the first time since 2005, while beating the Cowboys in their last matchup in 2013 by a 17-16 count as three-point favorites.


Dallas
Record: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1


The Cowboys begin life without star running back Ezekiel Elliott, who starts his six-game suspension on Sunday. Dallas returns home following a pair of road blowouts of San Francisco and Washington to improve to 3-1 away from AT&T Stadium. However, the Cowboys haven’t won at home since Week 1 against the Giants, as Dallas blew late leads in losses to Los Angeles and Green Bay in October. Dallas has registered four consecutive OVERS, while topping the 28-point mark in five straight games.

Best Bet: Chiefs +1

 

[CNOTES]

Best Bets - Week 9 Totals
November 2, 2017


NFL Week 9 Best Bets – Totals


We've got a wide range of totals put up by oddsmakers this week as there are a couple of NFL games currently in the 39 range, while a few others are 50+. In the middle there currently isn't anything higher than 45, so it's clear that oddsmakers believe that all the points we see in Week 9 will likely come from a select few games as teams begin the second half of 2017.


Will that be the case or will a few of the games with low posted totals end up surprising many and become full blown shootouts? We will have to wait until Sunday to find out, but for now let's get to this week's best total plays.


Odds per - HeritageSports.eu


Best Bet #1: Cincinnati/Jacksonville Over 39


The Bengals saved their season at least for another week when they were able to get a defensive TD late last week to beat Indianapolis 24-23 as a double-digit home favorite. I use the term “saved” very loosely though as it looks at though it's just a matter of time before the Bengals find themselves well out of the playoff race in the AFC this year, although that could change with a strong performance in Jacksonville this weekend. QB Andy Dalton has to be much, much better if Cincy wants any hope of turning things around, and he'll definitely be in tough against this “Sacksonville” defense.


The Jaguars are coming off their bye week here, and teams coming off their week of rest in the NFL are 6-4 O/U already this year. Jacksonville is one of six teams in that spot this week, but they are the one with the lowest posted total on the board and I do like their chances to put up points. If a depleted Colts attack can score 23 on Cincy, a Jags team that has scored 20+ in five of their seven games should be able to put up a similar number.


In fact, Jacksonville has only failed to score less then 20 in two of their three losses this year, and with the point spread on the Jags opening up at -3.5 and since being bet up to -5.5, clearly many bettors out there like them to win this game. I'm inclined to agree, and with 27+ points scored in all four of the Jags wins this year, this total is too low.


Jacksonville is 3-1 O/U after the bye week the past four years, and with the pressure the DL line gets for the Jags, getting Andy Dalton to turn the ball over and get a short field a few times definitely helps this 'over' play. The Jags are also 5-0 O/U in their last five at home, and with their last outing being a shutout victory over those same Colts, a 5-0 O/U trend comes into play as well for the Jags after allowing 14 or fewer points.


Cincinnati will do their part to put up points and take shots when they can because when the going gets tough for this team, Dalton reverts to the mode of simply taking shots downfield to AJ Green. That entire Bengals locker room knows they need a lot more production on offense and this could be the week we see them break out a bit. Yes, Jacksonville's defense is good, but this is still a Jags organization that's still learning how to win and when franchises are in that stage, mistakes do happen.


Finally, this 'over' play fits well with the contrarian mentality if that's what you typically prefer. VegasInsider.com current shows more than 90% of the action on this total has come in on the low side of this low number as all the talk concerns the Bengals horrific offense, Jacksonville's ability to get to the QB, and the Jags preference to run the ball and bleed the clock. All of those things are true, but they also don't mean points won't be scored.


Jacksonville has the best rushing attack in the league (169 rushing yards/game), and favorites that have rushed the ball for at least 140 yards this year are 19-3 O/U. That's not a trend I'm looking to buck here, especially when the weakness of Cincinnati's defense is against the run.


With a high likelihood of multiple turnovers here, from both sides, we could see a lot of short fields for both offenses and as long as they can convert those drives into TD's and not FG's, this game should easily hit 40+ points.


Odds per - HeritageSports.eu


Best Bet #2: Kansas City/Dallas Under 51


This Kansas City/Dallas game is one of the marquee matchups in the later afternoon slate on Sunday, and it is one of those games where oddsmakers do expect to see points. With KC on a 4-1 O/U run over their last five games, and Dallas 4-0 O/U in their last four and 5-1 O/U in their last six, it's easy to see why many do expect plenty of points to be scored.


Dallas has three straight weeks of putting 30+ up on the board, and Kansas City isn't far behind with all but one of their games this year having at least 24 points scored.


However, this will be the first game without RB Ezekiel Elliott for the Cowboys this year and although RB's mean next to nothing to point spreads and totals, there is no question his replacements in Alfred Morris and Darren McFadden are a downgrade. The Cowboys are still a run-first team and when you employ that strategy and have backs that are less likely to break the big run, the game shortens up in a hurry and a high total like this will be tough to reach.


Kansas City is coming off two tough division games the last two weeks and Andy Reid can't be happy that the defense allowed a combined 50 points in those two outings. KC will likely want to get back to their own running game with Kareem Hunt to keep Dak Prescott and the Cowboys attack off the field, and with a 2-5 O/U record after a MNF game, this total may be a touch to high to surpass.


Finally, KC is in a prime 'under' spot that we've seen the last few weeks as they are one of four teams heading into their bye week in Week 10. NFL teams are 6-16 O/U this year the week before their bye and that includes a 2-10 O/U run the past two weeks. This angle could lose some steam over the next few weeks, but with the number on this KC/Dallas game being one of the highest on the board, I'm willing to ride it at least one more time for this specific spot.

 

[CNOTES]

Best Bets - Week 9 Sides
November 2, 2017

NFL Week 9 Best Bets – Sides


Week 9 means that we've basically hit the halfway point of the campaign and what we've seen from teams so far is basically what we should come to expect going forward. If a NFL team hasn't established some sort of identity – good or bad – by this point of the year, they are likely in some serious trouble moving forward.


Yet, after one of the most active trade deadlines we've had in the NFL earlier this week, there are a few teams looking to reshape their current identities going forward. Two of those teams who made big trades at the deadline are involved in the games I've isolated as best bets for the week as both are involved in divisional matchups this week.


Best Bet #1: Carolina Panthers -1


It's funny how quick perception can change on teams on a week-to-week basis in this league. Atlanta was able to bring home the cash last week if you bet it earlier in the week as I did here at -4.5 with their five-point comeback win over the Jets. Bettors weren't thrilled with the Falcons after their blowout loss in New England the week prior, but after a close win against a bad Jets team, it appears as though many are back on the Falcons bandwagon.


VegasInsider.com's betting percentages show more then 70% of the bets so far have come Atlanta's way this week, and that action has pushed the line down from it's opener of -2.5 on Carolina. Not only did Atlanta's victory help their cause, but Carolina trading away WR Kelvin Benjamin this week has many believing that the 5-3 SU Panthers are basically “punting” on this season now.

Yet, the Panthers defense is one of the best in the entire league, and whatever the reasons that the Carolina brass had for making the Benjamin trade, in their eyes it was the right move to do. There is no way the Panthers view that move as a “punt” on the campaign, and I wouldn't be surprised if a move like that tightens the bonds within that locker room and we see everyone step up their play this week.


Secondly, the Falcons are in a brutal scheduling spot with this being their third consecutive game on the road. Fading teams in that spot typically works out more often than not regardless of opponent, but it's even better against a divisional rival that's got a ferocious defense and battling for first place.


This 2017 Atlanta Falcons team is nowhere near the same one as last year's bunch that went to the Super Bowl, and wouldn't you know it, Super Bowl losers playing their third straight game on the road are 1-10 SU and ATS the last 11 times this situation has come up.


With this spread basically a pick'em now, I'm riding with the home side who many are writing off now simply because of one trade. WR's injuries/absences etc generally mean next to nothing to the point spread, but everyone's already reacting to the Benjamin trade like the Panthers aren't going to win again this year. With the league's second best defense and plenty of weapons still in town, this Carolina team comes out with a huge chip on their shoulder and wins this game by at least a TD.


Best Bet #2: Arizona Cardinals -2


The Cardinals are in San Francisco this week to take on a 49ers team that went out and got their QB of the future (hopefully) this week when they got Jimmy Garoppolo from New England. There has been talk that Garoppolo could end up seeing the field just five days after he was acquired, but even if that's the case it's going to be a base type offense from a San Fran team that is really quite bad.


Arizona is coming off their bye week after getting flat out embarrassed over in London last time out. The 33-0 loss they suffered to the Rams was a double-whammy with Carson Palmer getting hurt, but backup Drew Tate has plenty of experience in this league and the extra week to prepare with the first team will only help his cause.


Going up against a bad 49ers team that took Arizona to OT earlier this year suggests that Tate and his Cardinals teammates aren't going to take this game lightly at all, and with Arizona's playoff aspirations arguably on the line during the next few weeks, this is an absolute must-have game for Arizona.


Flipping ATS and O/U results in division rematch games in the NFL is something I'm sure you've heard me talk about before, and although Arizona did win that first meeting in OT, they failed to cover the number. That shouldn't be the case this week as the well-rested Cardinals take full advantage of a 49ers team in the middle of an identity shift just looking to find some stability at QB.


Arizona is 5-0 ATS after getting blanked the last five times it's happened, and you've got to like taking teams off a bye when their last outing was disastrous. There is no worry about strong momentum being broken with the time off, and all that extra time in this case helped the Cardinals assess their plan for the rest of the year and put in a good week of practice to see if they can turn 2017 around.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL notebook: Texans QB Watson tears ACL in practice
November 2, 2017


Houston Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson tore the ACL in his right knee during Thursday's practice and will miss the rest of the season. The Houston Chronicle confirmed the original report by NFL Media.


The injury occurred on what was described to the Chronicle as "a routine play," running a toss-sweep in a non-contact drill.


Watson was added to the injury report as limited and because he didn't appear to be in much discomfort, it wasn't considered serious. However, an MRI exam revealed the tear, and Watson will undergo surgery at some point in the near future.


Watson had just been named NFL Offensive Player of the Month and AFC Offensive Rookie of the Month for October when he had 1,171 yards passing with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions. He also rushed for 145 yards on 21 attempts with a touchdown. He became the first rookie quarterback in league history to be named player of the month.


He is currently tied with Philadelphia quarterback Carson Wentz for the league lead with 19 touchdown passes and his 103.0 passer rating ranks fifth in the NFL.


--Andrew Luck's season is over before it officially began as the Indianapolis Colts announced that they placed the quarterback on injured reserve.


Luck has been sidelined due to soreness in his surgically repaired right shoulder. The soreness prompted the team to shut down the 28-year-old two weeks ago after he finally returned to practice on Oct. 4.


Luck lamented the end result of what is now a lost season for him.


--DeMarco Murray has his most productive season in 2014 when he was a member of the Dallas Cowboys, but the Tennessee Titans running back is certainly glad he didn't get traded back to Dallas prior to Tuesday's trading deadline.


Speculation fueled by the restoration of Ezekiel Elliott's six-game suspension had Murray being a target by the Cowboys. He understood the rationale but was glad the deadline passed without a transaction.


Murray led the AFC with 1,287 rushing yards last season. It was third 1,000-yard season, topped by the NFL-leading 1,845 he gained for the Cowboys in 2014.

 

[CNOTES]

Monday Night Football Best Bets:

NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

11/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50


Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total

11/02/2017................1 - 0..................+5.00..............0 - 0............+0.00...............+5.00


*******************

11 /2 / 17 -Thursday Night POM........New York Jets + 3....34 - 21............Winner

 

[Rusty40]

Thanks for the write ups I cashed 1h jets +2.5 and the total O 42