Cnotes 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[CNOTES]

NFL Opening Line Report: Sharp action bloats Bucs spread vs. Carolina
Patrick Everson


The Tampa Bay Buccaneers find new ways to lose each week. They've dropped three in a row but sharp bettors are backing Jameis Winston and Co. to cover against the Panthers.


Week 8 of the NFL season doesn’t have any truly eye-catching matchups, but a couple of NFC East rivals could spice things up a bit. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines and early action for a quartet of games, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.


Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (no line)

Dallas put a two-game losing skid in its rearview mirror, and in convincing fashion in Week 7. The Cowboys (3-3 SU and ATS) went to San Francisco as 6.5-point road favorites and left with a 40-10 rout to climb back to .500.


Washington (3-2 SU and ATS) still has Week 7 work to do, traveling to Philadelphia for Monday Night Football this evening. In Week 6, the Redskins beat the 49ers, too, albeit in a much tighter game, 26-24 as a 12-point home chalk.


Since Washington plays tonight, Bookmaker.eu is holding off on posting an opening line, though Cooley has an idea of where it will land.


“We’ll wait until Monday Night Football concludes, but look for this to surface around a pick ‘em,” he said. “No doubt we’ll get public money on the Cowboys, so if the sharps don’t get involved, expect the spread to trend in Dallas’ direction.”


Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)

Carolina just can’t seem to figure out what it is yet. Earlier this month, the Panthers (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) won outright as an underdog at New England and at Detroit. Cam Newton & Co. then lost their next two games, including Sunday’s dismal 17-3 setback to Chicago as a 2.5-point road fave.


Tampa Bay won two of its first three games, but has since dropped three in a row. The Buccaneers (2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS) had to swallow a bitter pill Sunday at Buffalo, taking a 27-20 lead on a touchdown with 3:14 remaining, then giving up 10 points those final minutes to lose 30-27 catching 3 points.


“Two of the more mercurial teams in the league, so we opened with basically a pick ‘em,” Cooley said. “Early smart money has come in on the Bucs. We all know that the Panthers defense is a different unit without Luke Kuechly.”


That early sharp play on Tampa drove the line up to -2.5.


Kuechly, Carolina’s standout linebacker, sat out against the Bears and remains under concussion protocol.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (+3)


Pittsburgh just might be getting back on track, winning and cashing the past two weeks. The Steelers (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) dropped Cincinnati 29-14 Sunday as a 4-point home favorite.


Detroit won three of its first four games, but enter this contest having lost two in a row. The Lions (3-3 SU and ATS) had a bye in Week 7 and probably needed it after giving up a 50-burger-plus in Week 6 – a 52-38 road loss to New Orleans as a 6-point pup.


“We’re definitely expecting the classic divide here, with sharps on Detroit and squares on the Steelers,” Cooley said. “Has Pittsburgh finally found its offensive footing? We’ll certainly find out against what seems to be a bleeding Lions defense.”


Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (-6)


Seattle has won and cashed for bettors in its past three games, though surprisingly is still looking up at the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West. The Seahawks (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) made a successful cross-country trip in Week 7, dropping the New York Giants 24-7 as a 4-point chalk.


Houston, coming off its bye week, hopes to keep pace with Tennessee and upstart Jacksonville in the middling AFC South. Prior to that bye, the Texans (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) topped Cleveland 33-17 giving 7.5 points at home.


“Wiseguys are on the Texans early here,” Cooley said, alluding to the line dropping from -6 to -5.5 at Bookmaker.eu. “Houston obviously lost an edge on the defensive front (J.J. Watt injury), but it’s still sound, and the offense has more than made up for it. Outside of Andy Reid, nobody is calling better plays than Bill O’Brien right now. It will be a great test against Seattle’s D.”

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 8
Monty Andrews


The Bears, Packers and Ravens have gone a combined 13-for-45 on third downs during Minnesota's three-game winning streak. The Vikings' D should feast on the Browns in Week 8.


Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns (+9.5, 37.5)
Vikings' third-down shutdown D vs. Browns' offensive struggles


The Cleveland Browns approach the midway point of the NFL's regular season still looking for their first victory - and Week 8 presents as big a challenge as they've faced all year as they welcome the vaunted Minnesota Vikings defense to town. Cleveland nearly came away with win No. 1 last week but ultimately fell short 12-9 in overtime - and it was yet another shoddy performance on third down that played a major role in the Browns remaining winless. They'll get no relief in that regard this week.


The Vikings have done plenty of things well this season en route to a 5-2 record and sole possession of top spot in an NFC North division that is completely up for grabs. And third-down defense has the centerpiece of the Vikings' defensive effort, with Minnesota allowing teams to score or extend drives on just 27.3 percent of their opportunities - the second-lowest rate in football. The Bears, Packers and Ravens have gone a combined 13-for-45 on third downs during Minnesota's three-game winning streak.


That run of dominance on third-down plays should continue against a Browns offense that can't seem to figure anything out. Cleveland is converting an abysmal 28.7 percent of third-down opportunities, the worst rate in football; going 3-for-13 on Sunday against the visiting Tennessee Titans cost the Browns their shot at a first victory. With the quarterback situation up in the air - yet again - for this weekend, look for Cleveland to struggle extending drives against a tough Minnesota defense.


Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 45.5)
Raiders' wretched rush attack vs. Bills' top-flight run D


Last week's last-second victory over the Kansas City Chiefs might have bought the Oakland Raiders some goodwill, but they'll need a much better effort if they hope to extend their fortunes this weekend in Buffalo. The Raiders rode a Michael Crabtree touchdown reception on the last play of the game to a 31-30 triumph over the Chiefs, but if they can't get their running game going, they'll face an uphill battle moving forward - and this will be a tough matchup to make inroads on the ground.


Oakland was forced to do without Marshawn Lynch after the veteran running back was ejected early in Thursday's thrilling victory. And while Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington fared well in his absence, the Raiders still mustered just 88 rushing yards on the evening. Acquiring Lynch was supposed to shore up the running game, but Oakland ranks 24th in rushing yards per game (92.9) and will need to find a way to be more reliant on the ground game in the future.


That future, however, might not start this week. The Bills own one of the most punishing run defenses in football, limiting opposing teams to 84.5 yards per game on the ground. That dominance was on full display in last week's 30-27 win over visiting Tampa Bay, as the Buccaneers mustered just 69 yards on 25 carries. Buffalo's 3.4 yards-per-carry-average against is the fourth-best rate among NFL defenses - and with Lynch suspended for Sunday's game, that rate could sink even lower.


Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+2.5, OFF)
Cowboys' red-zone rampage vs. Redskins' defensive doldrums


The Cowboys had been scuffling going into last week's game in San Francisco, but they took out all of their early-season frustrations on the winless 49ers in a 40-10 rout. The Dallas defense still has a long way to go to become Super Bowl-calibre, but it's hard to argue with the assertion that the Cowboys' offense is already there. Dallas has been one of the most dangerous red-zone teams in the league, and will look to continue that downfield dominance against a Washington team struggling to prevent red-zone scores.


Dallas finished with a top-five red-zone touchdown rate last season and has picked up right where it left off, going into Week 8 ranked second in the league in red-zone visits resulting in six points (66.7 percent). Only the Green Bay Packers (73.9 percent) have been better - and with Aaron Rodgers on the shelf indefinitely, it shouldn't be long before the Cowboys own top spot. Ezekiel Elliott has been a major factor in this regard, tied for fourth in the NFL with four rushing touchdowns.


The Redskins' defense struggled all night long in a 34-24 loss in Philadelphia on Monday, and has been one of the most charitable units in football when it comes to red-zone offense. Washington has permitted teams to score touchdowns on 64.7 percent of their trips inside the Redskins' 20-yard line; only Miami, Green Bay and Cleveland have been worse. With Elliott already cleared to play in Week 8, it could be another long day for Washington's beleaguered red-zone defense.


Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions (+3, 45)
Steelers' drive-killing prowess vs. Lions' first-down follies


The Steelers might have a claim as the best team in the AFC after rolling to a 29-14 victory over the rival Cincinnati Bengals. Pittsburgh is now 5-2 on the season and appears to have put its early-season drama behind it. Yet, for all the attention paid to the dynamic duo of Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, it has been the Pittsburgh defense that has made the real difference so far - and when it comes to first downs, the Steelers own a decided edge over an inconsistent Lions team.


Pittsburgh has quashed opponents' drives better than almost anyone over the past three games, limiting foes to an average of 12.7 first downs - the second-fewest of any team over that stretch. The Bengals managed a meager 11 first downs in Sunday's loss, which dropped the Steelers' average first downs allowed to 15.4 on the season - behind only the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers, considered two of the top overall defenses in football.


The Detroit offense hasn't been firing on all cylinders quite yet; sure, it produced 38 points in the final game prior to the Week 7 bye, but that was only because the Lions were in catch-up mode for the entire game. Detroit is averaging a modest 18 first downs per game so far, good for 23rd in the league. That leaves the Lions near the middle of the pack in time of possession - another tick in favor of the Steelers, whose drive-killing defense has them ranked third overall in TOP.

 

[CNOTES]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 8 NFL lines are going to move


The Dolphins and Ravens meet on Thursday night football and thanks to a pair of inept offenses, we've got a total that's as rare as a UFO sighting.


Game to bet now


Minnesota at Cleveland (+9.5)


The Browns went 1-15 in 2016 and it’s possible they’re worse this year.


How bad is it? A Browns promotion to give a prize to one fan went awry when the seat chosen at random was unoccupied. Oh, and their best lineman (tackle Joe Thomas, who hasn’t missed a game since 2007, looks lost for the year with a triceps tear.


Money is already heavy on the Vikings, moving the line a full two points from 7.5. Expect more Minnesota money to change the line even more, so if you like Minnesota, best jump now.


Game to wait on


Dallas at Washington (+1)


Ten of the 16 teams in the NFC, including these two, have either two or three losses. Catching the 6-1 Eagles is hardly out of the question, but this division game is vital for both.


The Cowboys are an early season disappointment, and they’ll have to get their act together immediately to get back in the playoff picture. Dallas plays Kansas City, Atlanta and Philadelphia in its next three games.


Washington, meanwhile, has a slightly easier schedule and would like nothing better than to slap down the ‘Boys and take a giant step toward turning the East into a two-team race with Philadelphia.


Total to watch


Miami at Baltimore (37.5)


Totals this low used to be as rare as UFO sightings recent years but they seem to be coming back.


The Dolphins are the second-lowest-scoring team in the league and their 1-5 record against the over reflects that. Still, there are signs that things might be moving in the right direction.


The Fins have won three in a row they been able to move the ball in their last two games (Atlanta, Jets). Miami (4-2 SU) is in the thick of it in a rejuvenated AFC East. Baltimore’s offense has been all over the map, and inconsistent QB Joe Flacco is being asked questions like “Is the offense completely broken?”


Yikes.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Long Sheet


Week 8


Thursday, October 26


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MIAMI (4 - 2) at BALTIMORE (3 - 4) - 10/26/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 55-78 ATS (-30.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 29


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MINNESOTA (5 - 2) vs. CLEVELAND (0 - 7) - 10/29/2017, 9:30 AM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (3 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (4 - 2) - 10/29/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 47-73 ATS (-33.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in October games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (3 - 3) at NY JETS (3 - 4) - 10/29/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (4 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 4) - 10/29/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 110-82 ATS (+19.8 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 57-36 ATS (+17.4 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
CAROLINA is 81-49 ATS (+27.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 37-57 ATS (-25.7 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 7) at PHILADELPHIA (6 - 1) - 10/29/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (3 - 4) at BUFFALO (4 - 2) - 10/29/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 50-80 ATS (-38.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 5) at CINCINNATI (2 - 4) - 10/29/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA CHARGERS (3 - 4) at NEW ENGLAND (5 - 2) - 10/29/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 110-80 ATS (+22.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
LA CHARGERS is 40-22 ATS (+15.8 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 94-67 ATS (+20.3 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 46-26 ATS (+17.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (3 - 3) at SEATTLE (4 - 2) - 10/29/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 35-60 ATS (-31.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 42-65 ATS (-29.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (3 - 3) at WASHINGTON (3 - 3) - 10/29/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 84-114 ATS (-41.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-114 ATS (-41.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-114 ATS (-41.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (5 - 2) at DETROIT (3 - 3) - 10/29/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 60-36 ATS (+20.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 67-43 ATS (+19.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, October 30


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DENVER (3 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (5 - 2) - 10/30/2017, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Week 8


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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 26


MIAMI @ BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami




Sunday, October 29


MINNESOTA @ CLEVELAND
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland's last 15 games
Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games


CHICAGO @ NEW ORLEANS
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games
New Orleans is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago


OAKLAND @ BUFFALO
Oakland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Buffalo's last 11 games at home


INDIANAPOLIS @ CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 11 games on the road
Indianapolis is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 10 games


LA CHARGERS @ NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing New England
New England is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against LA Chargers


ATLANTA @ NY JETS
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 19 of Atlanta's last 25 games
NY Jets is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Jets is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home


SAN FRANCISCO @ PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games at home


HOUSTON @ SEATTLE
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Seattle is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games


DALLAS @ WASHINGTON
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Dallas


PITTSBURGH @ DETROIT
Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home




Monday, October 30


DENVER @ KANSAS CITY
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games at home
Kansas City is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 8


Thursday's game
Dolphins (4-2) @ Ravens (3-4)— Miami is 4-2 despite trailing five of six games at the half. QB Cutler has multiple cracked ribs; Moore is expected to start, with untested Doughty (WKU) the backup if Cutler doesn’t dress. Moore is 15-13 as an NFL starter, but has started only 3 games since 2011. Dolphins won last three games, by 6-3-3 points; their four wins are by total of 14 points. Baltimore lost four of last five games overall; they won six of last seven series games; they whacked the Dolphins 38-6 here LY; Miami lost its last three visits to Baltimore, by 7-16-32 points. AFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 5-2 vs spread; AFC North non-divisional favorites are 2-5. Under is 5-1 in Dolphin games; over is 4-1 in last five Raven games.


Sunday's games
Vikings (5-2) vs Browns (0-7) (in London)— Kessler is third QB to start for Browns this year; he is 0-8 as an NFL starter, was 26-14 at USC. Cleveland has 18 turnovers (-12) in their last six games; they’re 1-5 vs spread in those games- four of their seven losses are by exactly three points. Minnesota won its last three games, allowing 14.3 pts/game; they’re 1-1 on road, with 26-9 loss at Pittsburgh, 20-17 win in Chicago. Under Zimmer, Vikings are 4-4 vs spread as a favorite away from home— they’re 2-1 vs Cleveland, losing 31-27 at home to Browns in last meeting, in 2013. NFC North teams are 11-8 vs spread outside their division, 3-2 if favored. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 4-2 against the spread.


Bears (3-4) @ Saints (4-2)—New Orleans defense is way improved; Saints won last four games, allowing 6 TD’s on 38 drives, while scoring 3 of their own- they ran ball for 193-161 yards in last two games. NO is +40 in plays run in their last three games. Saints split their two home games. Chicago scored two defensive TD’s early in game LW, then sat on lead; they’re 2-1 in Trubisky starts, winning 27-24 in OT at Baltimore in his only road start. Saints won last three series games by 17-8-16 points; this is first series meeting since 2011, Bears’ first visit here since ’11- they lost last four visits here, with last win in Superdome in 1991. NFC North road underdogs are 3-4 vs spread outside their division; NFC South one favorites are 3-6.


Falcons (3-3) @ Jets (3-4)— Atlanta lost its last three games after a 3-0 start; they’ve got only one takeaway (-6) in last four games. Falcons were 13-33 (39.4%) on 3rd down in last three games; they were 14-30 (46.7%) in first three. Jets lost last two games despite leading both games 14-0; three of their last four games were decided by exactly 3 points. Gang Green is 4-0-1 vs spread in their last five games; they’re 2-1 at home (3-0 vs spread). Atlanta leads this series 6-5; they’re 3-2 in road games against the Jets. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 6-10 vs spread, 3-4 on road. AFC East underdogs are 7-2 vs spread, 2-0 at home. Last three Falcon games stayed under total; under is 4-3 in Jet games, 2-1 at home.


Panthers (4-3) @ Buccaneers (2-4)— Carolina lost 17-3 in Chicago LW; both Bear TD’s were scored by defense. Panthers turned ball over six times (-5) in losing last two games after a 4-1 start; they’re 3-1 on road. Carolina is -8 in turnovers in its three losses, -1 in its four wins. Bucs lost last three games, by 5-5-3 points, giving up 30-38 points in last two games- they’re 2-1 at home, with only home loss 19-14 to Patriots. Tampa Bay swept Carolina 17-14/17-16 LY, after losing previous six series games; Panthers won three of last four visits here. Five of last seven series totals were 36 or less. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-9-2 vs spread. Over is 3-1 in last four Carolina games, 4-1 in Buccaneers’ last five games.


49ers (0-7) @ Eagles (6-1)— Philly is on serious roll, but lost LT Peters for year Monday, a big blow to offense. Eagles won last five games, covered last four; they’re 11-9 vs spread in last 20 games as a home favorite, 2-1 this year, with home wins by 3-27-10. Iggles allowed 23+ points in five of their last six games. 49ers are 0-7, but 4-3 vs spread; they’re 3-1 vs spread as road underdogs, with road losses by 3-3-3-2 points. SF was outscored 37-10 in first half of their last two games. Niners won last two series games by 1-5 points; teams split last four meetings played here. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 1-5 vs spread; NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 4-7 vs spread, 3-4 on road. Over is 4-1 in 49ers’ last five games.


Raiders (3-4) @ Bills (4-2)— Buffalo is 4-2 with a +10 turnover ratio; Bills are 3-0 at home, with wins by 9-10-3 points. Buffalo is 22-42 on 3rd down in its last three games. Oakland snapped 4-game skid with Thursday win over Chiefs, has three extra days to prep; Raiders are 1-2 on road, losing 27-10/16-10 at Washington/Denver in last two road tilts- their last two games were both decided by a point. Home side won last six series games; Oakland lost 24-23/38-35 in last two visits here- Raiders’ last win in Buffalo was in ’02. AFC West underdogs are 4-0 vs spread outside their division, 3-0 on road. AFC East home favorites are 1-3-1 against the spread. Under is 4-2 in Buffalo games, 3-0 in Raider road games.


Colts (2-5) @ Bengals (2-4)— Indy is 0-3 on road, losing by 35-28-14 points (0-3 vs spread); four of their five losses are by 14+ points- they’ve been outscored 134-44 in second half of games this year, have one TD on 19 drives in last two games. Bengals were held to 179 yards in 29-14 loss at Pittsburgh LW; they allowed 7-16 points in their two wins, are 0-3 when giving up more than 16 points. Cincy ran ball for only 74 yards/game in their last three games. Colts are 9-2 in last 11 series games; last meeting was 26-10 Indy win in 2014 playoff game. AFC South road teams are 2-4 vs spread, 2-2 as road dogs. AFC North favorites are 2-5 vs spread, 2-3 if at home. Under is 4-2 in Bengal games, 2-5 in Indy games.


Chargers (3-4) @ Patriots (4-2)— Chargers won last three games after an 0-4 start; they’re 3-0 vs spread as a road underdog, losing by 3 at Denver, winning SU at Giants/Raiders. Last five TD’s Chargers allowed all came on plays of 23+ yards. Patriots won last three games, by 5-7-16 points; they’re 1-3 vs spread as home favorite this year. NE stayed under their team total the last four weeks. Bolts lost last three series games, by 3-14-9 points; they lost last three visits to to Foxboro by 24-9-14 points- their last win was in ’05. AFC West underdogs are 4-0 vs spread outside their division, 3-0 on road. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 1-3-1 vs spread. Last three Patriot games, last two Charger games stayed under the total.


Texans (3-3) @ Seahawks (4-2)— Houston won/covered five of its last six post-bye games; they scored 33+ points in last four games, with rookie QB Watson under center. Texans are 2-0 as a road dog- the two games were decided by total of 7 points- this is their first road game in over a month. Seahawks won/covered their last three games; they’re 2-0 at home, allowing two TD’s on 22 drives, but those games were against 49ers/Colts. Seattle is 2-1 in this series, winning 42-10 in Texans’ only visit here, in 2005; Seahawks won last meeting in OT in ’13. AFC South road teams are 2-4 vs spread, 2-2 as road dogs. NFC West teams are 7-10 vs spread outside their division, 2-1 as a home fave. Under is 4-2 in Seattle games, 0-4 in last four Texan games.


Cowboys (3-3) @ Redskins (3-3)— Dallas allowed 3-17-10 points in its three wins, 42-35-35 in its three losses; they’re 2-1 on road- since 2014, they’re 9-4 vs spread as a road favorite. Cowboys have 611 rushing yards in their last three games. Short week for Washington after physical loss to Iggles Monday night; Redskins scored 20+ points in last five games, are 2-1 at home- they’re 6-3 vs spread in last nine games as a home underdog. Road team won six of last seven series games; Dallas is 6-2 in last eight series games, winning last four visits here, by 1-27-3-4 points. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-9-2 vs spread. Four of last five Dallas games went over total; over is 3-1-1 in last five Redskin games.


Steelers (5-2) @ Lions (3-3)— Detroit won/covered its last five post-bye games; they were dog in 3 of the 5 games. Lions lost three of last four games overall; their OFFENSE gave up three TD’s in last game, a 52-38 loss in Superdome. Detroit is 1-2 at home; all three games went over the total. Pittsburgh is 3-1 on road, allowing 15.8 pts/game; all four games stayed under total. Pitt is 4-0 when they run ball for 100+ yards. Steelers won four in row, 12 of last 14 games vs Detroit; they won 28-20 in last visit here, in ’09. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 2-5 vs spread, 0-2 on road. NFC North non-divisional home underdogs are 5-2 vs spread. Five of last six Steeler games stayed under total; over is 3-1 in last four Detroit games.


Monday's game
Broncos (3-3) @ Chiefs (5-2)— KC lost its last two games after a 5-0 start; they ran ball for average of 156.2 ypg in their five wins, 28-94 yards in their two losses. Broncos held five of six opponents to 80 or less rushing yards. Denver is 0-2 on road, losing 26-16 to Bills, 16-0 to Chargers; in their last four games, Broncos scored 3 TD’s on 45 drives- they ran ball 36 times for 115 yards in last two games. Denver scored 19 points on their last nine red zone drives- not good. Chiefs won last three series games, by 16-3-23 points; Denver won five of its last six visits to Arrowhead. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-9-2 against the spread. Over is 4-1-2 in Chief games, 0-3 in last three Denver games.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Week 8 lines that make you go hmmm...
Peter Korner


Before this past week, Oakland’s offense had scored 53 points in the previous four games. How will the Silver and Black do against the Bills vaunted defense?


Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns (+9.5, 37.5)


Being on neutral ground, the offshore opener of Minnesota -7.5 was quickly devoured by those sharp bettors who were expecting higher, like myself. I made this at least -10.5 bordering -11 from the get-go.


Minnesota has quickly become a defensive force in the league allowing 17, 14, 17, 10 and 16 points in its last five games. That stop unit going against a Cleveland offense that is struggling mightily, scoring 7, 14, 17 and nine points in the past four weeks, appears to be good reason that the difference between these two will easily cover any betting number out there up and including the closing line. The Vikings’ point total has improved in three straight weeks. The Browns are losing by an average of over 16 points per game in their last four weeks and nearly by 9.5 for the season.


If you were hedging like most of us early in the betting, taking the Vikings now, instead of later, would be the wise move. Cleveland backers, all two of you, would best benefit by waiting this one out and checking back later to grab a potential double-digit number to your liking. Being that the perception that a difference of 10 is a key number (which it really isn’t), I don’t see this getting maximum play on Minnesota too consistently once it gets that high. Chances of this going over 10 points are minimal.


My strategy here also involves the fact that this is a “special” game, we might not see a letdown by the favored Vikings in a spot like this. Now at 5-2, the last thing Minnesota needs is a closely-fought game in which I am sure they have marked as a notch in the win column. If Cleveland had any talent, particularly at the quarterback position, they could surprise and stay close. But this is certainly not the case.


Insight into Vegas' opening odds and early sharp action for NFL Week 8 betting
There are some very interesting matchups on the NFL Week 8 schedule and we get the story behind those odds from Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports at the Wynn Las Vegas, who gives his insight into the opening lines and early action.


Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 45.5)


Oakland comes to Buffalo for what has become quite a shootout whenever these two teams’ cross paths. I absolutely agreed with the offshore opener of the Bills -3, but early betting has been on the Raiders, partly due to the stunning (and home field advantage) victory over the Chiefs this past week.

Before that, the Raiders were slipping into an abyss that was quickly putting an end to their season. I made this around Buffalo -3 (-120), looking at how the Bills are performing at home this season. In fact, home field has been a huge play between these two as the home team has won six straight times.


Before this past week, Oakland’s offense had scored a mere 53 points in the previous four games. Buffalo has had one of the best “points against” defenses in the NFL all year long. The Bills are playing well, playing better at home, and are feeding off their underdog status. They seem to have the emotional edge in this game.


As an oddsmaker, where my suggestions to bookmakers with parlay cards were under the microscope, I have always deemed the early movement downward to be a set-up for the casinos to print up their cards south of the key 3. A little money early in the week will turn out to be much larger the other way come kickoff. If you like Buffalo, don’t expect this number to drop off much more. The early money did its job. If you like Oakland, I firmly believe you will see 3’s hit the board again come game day so you might want to sit this out until the weekend to play.


Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 44)


I made this game more of a toss-up, closer to Tampa Bay either a pick or -1 at best. I understand Carolina’s awful play against the Bears in Chicago this past weekend, but the Panthers were coming off a tough three-game stretch against some quality opponents and when they found themselves down by two touchdowns off turnovers.


The Bears were able to crank up the defense in a position of power and keep the Carolina offense at bay. The fact that the Bears mustered just three points of offense all day themselves has me thinking that we need to throw that game out and look at this matchup with new eyes.


Tampa Bay has lost four of the last five games. It’s given up just under 30 points per game during that span. Though Tampa Bay did score 27 points off a monster day by QB Jameis Winston, it came against a Bills secondary that was hit with multiple injuries to their cornerbacks during the game.


Tampa Bay doesn’t look to be too strong of a force the rest of the way while Carolina, currently in second place, needs this game to not only to wipe away the unpleasant taste of last week’s results, but firmly entrench themselves in the NFC playoff picture. At this point, there’s a huge difference between 5-3 and 4-4.


I don’t see this number heading up any time soon during the course of this week. I see a strong play on the dog where bettors are planning to see a bounce back game by the Panthers in a totally winnable game. Grab as many points as you can if you’re backing the Panthers. Wait until game day if you like the Buccaneers and be prepared to only lay a point or two max at that time.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel


Week 8


Thursday, October 26

Miami @ Baltimore


Game 101-102
October 26, 2017 @ 8:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Miami
129.150
Baltimore
130.370
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 1
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 3
37
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+3); Over




Sunday, October 29

Minnesota @ Cleveland


Game 251-252
October 29, 2017 @ 9:30 am


Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
130.722
Cleveland
126.966
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 4
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 10 1/2
37 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+10 1/2); Over


Chicago @ New Orleans


Game 253-254
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
131.256
New Orleans
143.244
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 12
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 8 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-8 1/2); Under


Atlanta @ NY Jets


Game 255-256
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
135.970
NY Jets
125.315
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 10 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 4
46
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-4); Under


Carolina @ Tampa Bay


Game 257-258
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
131.155
Tampa Bay
130.857
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
Even
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 2 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+2 1/2); Over


San Francisco @ Philadelphia


Game 259-260
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
125.974
Philadelphia
135.842
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 10
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 13
47
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+13); Over


Oakland @ Buffalo


Game 261-262
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
132.705
Buffalo
132.309
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
Even
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 3
46
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+3); Under


Indianapolis @ Cincinnati


Game 263-264
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
123.022
Cincinnati
130.033
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 7
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 11
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+11); Under


LA Chargers @ New England


Game 265-266
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
131.983
New England
140.903
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 9
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 7
49
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-7); Under


Houston @ Seattle


Game 267-268
October 29, 2017 @ 4:05 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Houston
134.180
Seattle
144.655
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 10 1/2
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 5
46
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-5); Under


Dallas @ Washington


Game 269-270
October 29, 2017 @ 4:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
132.888
Washington
134.559
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 2 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+2 1/2); Over


Pittsburgh @ Detroit


Game 271-272
October 29, 2017 @ 8:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
137.222
Detroit
136.710
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3
45
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+3); Under




Monday, October 30

Denver @ Kansas City


Game 273-274
October 30, 2017 @ 8:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Denver
125.392
Kansas City
138.510
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 13
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 7
43
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-7); Over

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Thursday, October 26


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football betting preview and odds: Dolphins at Ravens
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 37)


Journeyman Matt Moore is fresh off a brilliant comeback performance and now will serve as the starting quarterback when the Miami Dolphins visit the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday. Moore came off the bench after Jay Cutler suffered multiple cracked ribs on Sunday to rally Miami from a 14-point deficit and record a 31-28 victory over the New York Jets.


Moore threw two touchdown passes during a 17-point fourth quarter and brings a more boisterous approach than the introverted Cutler, who could miss multiple contests. "It's an emotional game and I'm an emotional player," Moore told reporters on Tuesday, two days prior to making his 29th career regular-season start. "It's always better when you're having fun. When you're kicking the dirt, that's not the way to do your job. So I try to have a good time." Miami has won three straight games, so it is experiencing better times than the Ravens, who have allowed an average of 27.6 points while losing four of their last five contests. "I wouldn't say it's a must-win," Baltimore safety Eric Weddle told reporters, "but it's definitely a big-time game that we need to try and do everything in our power to win."

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: Despite all the troubles of the Ravens offense, oddsmakers are still giving them the edge at home, setting the line at Baltimore -3. The line has yet to move off the opening number. The total hit the board at a very low 37.5 and has actually moved down further to the current number of 37.


POWER RANKINGS:[/B] Dolphins (1.5) - Ravens (3.5) + home field (-3) = Ravens -1


WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Its going to be hard for the Dolphins and Ravens to match the excitement of last Thursday's Chiefs-Raiders thriller. That doesn't mean its not going to be an interesting game though. The Dolphins come in as the hotter team but the Ravens may well be the hungrier one. I had projected this line to be exactly where it is, so don't find a whole lot of value with the side. If the line moves off three, I'll be taking a closer look. Getting the Ravens at less than -3 (doubtful) would provide some value, while the Dolphins would start looking more interesting if the line climbed above four." - Ben Burns

INJURY REPORT:


Dolphins - QB Jay Cutler (Out Thursday, ribs), DT Jordan Phillips (Questionable Thursday, ankle), C Anthony Steen (Questionable Thursday, foot), DE Andre Branch (Questionable Thursday, groin), WR DeVante Parker (Questionable Thursday, ankle), C Mike Pouncey (Probable Thursday, knee), T Ja'Wuan James (Probable Thursday, hand), TE Julius Thomas (Probable Thursday, knee), RB Jay Ajayi (Probable Thursday, knee), T Laremy Tunsil (Probable Thursday, knee).


Ravens - S Eric Weddle (Questionable Thursday, ankle), LB Patrick Onwuasor (Questionable Thursday, knee), S Tony Jefferson (Questionable Thursday, ankle), LB Terrell Suggs (Questionable Thursday, knee), CB Jimmy Smith (Questionable Thursday, achilles), DB Anthony Levine (Questionable Thursday, back), WR Michael Campanaro (Questionable Thursday, shoulder), WR Chris Matthews (Questionable Thursday, thigh), WR Mike Wallace (Questionable Thursday, concussion), WR Breshad Perriman (Questionable Thursday, concussion), TE Maxx Williams (Questionable Thursday, ankle), LB Tim Williams (Questionable Thursday, thigh), WR Jeremy Maclin (Questionable Thursday, shoulder), RB Terrance West (Questionable Thursday, calf), TE Benjamin Watson (Probable Thursday, knee).

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (4-2, 3-2-1 ATS, 1-5 O/U): Running back Jay Ajayi (442 yards) is saddled with a 3.5-yard average that is well below the 4.9 mark of last season's breakthrough campaign, but he will have a shot at posting his third 100-yard performance of the year against a Baltimore squad that ranks last in the NFL in rushing defense (145.3 yards per game). Moore will try to pump life into a sagging offense that ranks 31st in scoring (15.3 points) and dead last in total offense (261.8 yards) as well as try to make a downfield threat out of receiver Jarvis Landry, who is averaging just 8.1 yards on 45 receptions. Defensive end Cameron Wake has recorded six sacks after posting 2.5 against the Jets, but the defense has made only two interceptions.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (3-4, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U): Baltimore ranks 23rd in the NFL in scoring offense (18.8 points) and 28th in total offense (277.6 yards) while quarterback Joe Flacco has been an underwhelming performer with five touchdown tosses and eight interceptions. "I have to be more consistent," Flacco told reporters. "That is the name of this game. In order to win the majority of your games, you have to play consistent, and you still probably are going to lose a couple." Outside linebacker Terrell Suggs (team-best 4.5 sacks) is expected to play through a knee injury, while cornerback Brandon Carr has recorded a club-leading three interceptions.

TRENDS:


* Dolphins are 0-7 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 8-0-1 in Dolphins last nine Thursday games.
* Over is 4-1 in Ravens last five games overall.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are fairly split on this matchup, with 53 percent of bettors giving the Ravens a slight edge. The total is even closer with 51 percent of wagers on the Under.

 

[CNOTES]

TNF - Dolphins at Ravens
October 26, 2017


Miami at Baltimore (-3, 37), 8:25 pm ET, CBS/NFLN


It's been nearly an entire decade since the Dolphins covered the spread of a game against the Ravens, last doing so in a 22-16 overtime win back in '07. You've got to go back 20 years and a week for the last time the Dolphins picked up a win in Baltimore, way back in their first visit back in 1997.


Karim Abdul-Jabbar, the running back unrelated to the Hall of Fame center, scored three touchdowns to fuel the victory. That's a blast from the past. While history may not be on Miami's side as they visit Baltimore, the form the current Ravens have put on display of late could ease their burden.


In danger of missing the playoffs for the third straight season, something they've never done under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are hoping to even their record at 4-4 with a win over the Dolphins. Although Baltimore didn't qualify for the postseason in its first four years after relocating from Cleveland, it has been part of the AFC playoff picture more than it hasn't since winning Super Bowl XXXV in 2000. Harbaugh qualified in each of his first five seasons, but will need a strong finish to avoid missing out for the fourth time over his last five.


From that standpoint, there's tremendous pressure to get off to a good start and pick up this win in a short week to move forward within striking distance of a playoff spot entering the season's second half. Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti gave his GM Ozzie Newsome, Harbaugh and QB Joe Flacco a vote of confidence by stating his belief in their competence and his preference for patience, but since he felt the need to do that, there's definitely cause for concern that the foundation is crashing.


Harbaugh is a perfect 5-0 at home on Thursday nights, and actually told his team's fans this week that "there are going to be good times ahead for Joe Flacco. Stick with him."


Flacco has yet to throw for even 250 yards this season, topping out at 235 in a 26-9 loss to Pittsburgh. He hasn't trusted the offensive line since it lost its most valuable member, Marshal Yanda, in the opening month. The former Super Bowl MVP has thrown eight interceptions and just five touchdowns through the first seven games, so maybe facing the team he's lit up most over the past three seasons will help him snap out of a season-long funk. Flacco threw four touchdown passes in last December's 38-6 rout of the Dolphins, utilizing advantages the Ravens had against the linebackers and DBs to post a season-best 36 completions. Dennis Pitta, who was lost to a dislocated hip in training camp, scored two touchdowns among his nine receptions for 90 yards.


Injuries have continued to play a role in the demise of the Ravens offense, which comes off being held to just 16 points in Minnesota, which is misleading since they scored with no time left after driving down the field against a defense more interested in watching the seconds tick away. Had rookie Chris Moore not tapped his toe to get both feet in on the final play of regulation on Sunday, not only would the 'under' for that game have come in, but Flacco would carry a touchdown-less streak of 13 quarters into Thursday night's game. As it is, he's thrown two TD passes in his last 22 quarters.


The defense Miami will bring into town is much improved from the version Flacco dominated 10 months ago. Linebackers Rey Maualuga and Lawrence Timmons were elsewhere last season, while Kiko Alonso continues to make plays. Up front, Cameron Wake had 2.5 sacks to help put away the Jets last week as the Dolphins rallied from a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit to win 31-28 despite losing starting QB Jay Cutler to broken ribs that will keep him out here. Backup Matt Moore, who threw for a pair of scores and 188 yards to help execute the comeback, will start for the first time since last season's AFC Wild Card playoff loss to Pittsburgh.


The Dolphins are in position to join the Steelers, Chiefs and Patriots at 5-2 with a victory here, which would be impressive since they're now on their third quarterback after losing Ryan Tannehill and now Cutler. This injury isn't likely to keep him out long, but since the offense was inconsistent with him at the helm, it's entirely possible that Moore can keep the job if he continues to excel.


Miami Dolphins
Season win total: 7 (Over -130, Under +110)
Odds to win AFC East: 18/1 to 15/1
Odds to win AFC: 50/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1 to 100/1


Baltimore Ravens
Season win total: 8.5 (Over +130, Under -150)
Odds to win AFC North: 6/1 to 10/1
Odds to win AFC: 50/1 to 100/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1 to 200/1


LINE MOVEMENT


Despite the comeback win over the Jets and the possibility of joining the AFC's elite, record-wise, the Dolphins numbers remained the same as they were the previous week. The books clearly aren't big believers in Cutler or Moore. Since they're in the same division as New England, they're not going to get much love. Still, merely from the standpoint that they've gotten off to a successful start and that injuries can pop up at any time to derail seasons, it might be worthwhile to get in on some Dolphins futures if you think they're going to pick up a win here.


The Ravens are also potentially lucrative. Considering the coaching staff knows what it takes to be successful against the AFC's elite teams, you can be confident in the leadership if nothing else. Flacco has been shaky and injuries have compromised any and all depth, so if I had to choose between these two longshots to back long-term, Miami gets my vote.


As far as this matchup is concerned, the Ravens were installed as a 4.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced, opening the week at 3.5 at a few shops but quickly moving to 3, which is where at resides pretty much everywhere as of gameday morning. The total opened at 37-37.5, but is now most widely available at 37.


Baltimore is in the -160 range on the money line if you don't want to lay the possession just to flirt with a push, while backing the Dolphins outright will get you +140.


ODDSMAKER'S TAKE


"Currently, the action for TNF is fairly split. We took a little bit of sharp money on the Ravens early, but then received just about the sames sharp money on Miami at +3.5," Cooley said. "The public likes the Dolphins with a 60-40 split. Smart money on the under as well. Despite the win streak, I don’t know if you can call the Dolphins 'hot' due to the nature of those victories, and this feels like a game Baltimore has to have."


INJURY CONCERNS


Beyond missing Cutler, the Dolphins have injury issues along the offensive line and at receiver. Left guard Anthony Steen has been ruled out, necessitating a reshuffling up front. Jesse Davis will start. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil (knee) is questionable but should play, which is fortuntate since Miami would really have to get creative if he can't go. WR DeVante Parker has been absent for the better part of two games but is hoping to return from an ankle injury to push Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills for targets. DE Andre Branch and DT Jordan Phillips are also questionable.


The Ravens ruled out RB Terrance West and TE Maxx Williams and list WRs Michael Campanaro and Chris Matthews as doubtful. WR Breshad Perriman, who scored against the Dolphins last season, cleared concussion protocol and will play, but Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace are each serious question marks. Guard Matt Skura and TE Ben Watson are questionable but expected to return to action. On the defensive end, LB Tim Williams is out, but Terrell Suggs and top corner Jimmy Smith are expected to go.


RECENT MEETINGS (Baltimore 6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS last seven; UNDER 4-3)


12/4/16 Baltimore 38-6 vs. Miami (BALT -3.5, 41.5)
12/6/15 Miami 15-13 vs. Baltimore (MIA -3, 43.5)
12/7/14 Baltimore 28-13 at Miami (MIA -3, 45)
10/6/13 Baltimore 26-23 at Miami (MIA -2.5, 42.5)
11/7/10 Baltimore 26-10 vs.Miami (BALT -5, 41)
1/4/09 Baltimore 27-9 at Miami (BALT -3.5, 38)
10/19/08 Baltimore 27-13 at Miami (MIA -3, 35)


PROPS


Of the props available below at BetOnline.ag, I'd ride the OVER on field goal length and combined sacks.


Team to reach 10 points first: (Ravens -140, Dolphins +120)
Team to reach 20 points first: (Ravens -155, Dolphins +135)
Team to score first: (Ravens -125, Dolphins +105)
Team to score last: (Ravens -115, Dolphins -105)
First score: (Touchdown -130, FG/Safety +110)
Total FGs made by both teams: (3.5, Over +140, Under -160)
Longest FG made: (47, Over -110/Under -110)
Total sacks by both teams combined: (4.5 Over -110, Under -110)
Will there be a score in final 2 minutes of 1st half: (Yes -210, No +175)
Will there be a defensive or special teams TD?: (Yes +220, No -260)
Will there be a TD of 38 yards or more?: (Yes +120, No -140)
Will there be a 1-yard TD?: (Yes +102, No -140)
Will there be overtime: (Yes +700, No -1000)
Will there be 3 straight scores by either team: (Yes -155, No +135)



RAVENS AS A HOME FAVORITE


Baltimore is 1-1 SU/ATS in this role, defeating Cleveland and losing outright in OT against Chicago. The Ravens were 5-2 as a home favorite last season, covering the number on four occasions, which included the 38-6 romp over the Dolphins that provided their largest margin of victory last season.

DOLPHINS AS A ROAD UNDERDOG


Miami is a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS catching points on the road this season. The Dolphins survived the Chargers in L.A. in their season debut when Younghoe Koo missed a potential game-winning field goal and rallied from a 17-0 halftime deficit in Atlanta to beat the Falcons as a 14-point 'dog. The 'Phins went 3-4 SU (2-5 ATS) in this role last season, including the Wild Card loss in Pittsburgh.



NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED


The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 9 currently has the Ravens as a 4.5-point road underdog at Tennessee. The Dolphins will be back on a national stage, hosting the Raiders in a huge AFC clash on Sunday night football. Oakland is listed as a 1-point road favorite.

 

[CNOTES]

Week 8 Game Scout: Dolphins at Ravens
October 26, 2017


MIAMI DOLPHINS (4-2) AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (3-4)

KICKOFF: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET, M&T Bank Stadium, TV: CBS, NFLN, Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson (Field reporter), Jay Feely (field reporter).


SERIES HISTORY: 13th regular-season meeting. Series tied, 6-6. The Ravens won the last meeting, 38-6, last season. QB Joe Flacco threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns as the Ravens ended the Dolphins' six-game winning streak. These teams are very familiar as this is the fifth consecutive year they've met. The Ravens have won three of the last four meetings.


KEYS TO THE GAME: Miami's running game will be the focus. Running back Jay Ajayi and the offensive line must take pressure off quarterback Matt Moore, starting his first game because Jay Cutler is out with fractured ribs. It would help Miami establish the physical presence against the NFL's worst run defense (145.3 yards per game).


The Ravens need to jump out to an early lead because they are not built to play from behind. Flacco might be limited with throwing downfield because of injuries to several of his receivers. So, Flacco might be reduced to picking up yards with screens and intermediate passes. He cannot afford a turnover. The Ravens need to establish the run to take some pressure off Flacco. The Dolphins, however, are stout up front and will try to force Flacco to beat them. The key to this game could be field position.


Miami, which is 10th (308.2 yards per game) in total defense, is becoming adept at shutting down the run and allowing its pass rush, led by DE Cam Wake (6.0 sacks), to take over. Look for Miami to start with an eight-man front early to stop the run.


If Baltimore has success on the ground, the Dolphins will have a long night.


The Ravens are at their best when they force turnovers. Baltimore has managed just four turnovers in their four losses and 11 in their wins. The Ravens will look to keep Moore under pressure. The key will be shutting down Ajayi, but Baltimore's run defense has allowed more than 100 yards in the past five games.


MATCHUPS TO WATCH:


--Ravens LT Ronnie Stanley vs. Dolphins DE Cameron Wake. Stanley is the anchor of an offensive line that has been ravaged by injuries. Quarterback Joe Flacco, who missed all of training camp with an ailing back, has been sacked 17 times. Wake has been a force for Miami and is tied for 10th in the NFL with six sacks. Miami will look to keep Flacco under constant pressure to force mistakes, with Wake leading the charge.


--Dolphins RB Jay Ajayi vs. Ravens DT Brandon Williams. Williams was back in the lineup Sunday against the Vikings after missing four games with a foot injury. Baltimore allowed 169.5 yards per game and went 1-3 when Williams was out. Even with Williams able to play, the Vikings ran for 169 yards on 33 carries. Williams and the rest of the offensive line could face a bigger challenge against Ajayi, who is averaging 73.7 yards per game. Ajayi was held out of practice this week with knee and elbow issues. Miami will look to establish an effective running game, especially with short week and going on the road.


PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Dolphins QB Matt Moore. Moore will be making his first start of the season in a Thursday night road game, so the degree of difficulty gets raised slightly. Moore did a good job last week in relief of Jay Cutler (ribs). The big concern is whether he'll be loose with the ball. He was good last season (9 TDs, 4 INTs, including playoffs) and wasn't bad last week (2 TDs, 1 INT). Otherwise, Moore's let-it-rip attitude might be just what this offense needed.

FAST FACTS: Dolphins QB Matt Moore came off the bench when Jay Cutler was injured last week and threw two TD passes, finished with a 102.9 rating. In his past six starts on the road, Moore collected 15 passing TDs vs. 3 INTs. ... RB Jay Ajay totaled 207 yards from scrimmage (103.5 per game) in the past two games. ... WR Jarvis Landry caught passes for 93 yards and a TD last week and seeks fourth straight week with a TD catch. ... DE Cameron Wake made 2.5 sacks last week and has at least two in 16 games since entering the league in 2009, tied for fourth among active players. ... S Reshad Jones has caught an interception in two of the last three meetings. ... Ravens QB Joe Flacco has completed 117 of 162 (72.2 percent) for 1,417 yards, nine TDs and three INTs in the past five meetings. He completed 36 of 47 (76.6 percent) for 381 yards, four TDs and one INT in his last game vs. Miami. ... WR Mike Wallace had 15 TD catches in two seasons with Miami (2013-14). ... TE Benjamin Watson has 463 career catches, sixth most among active TEs. ... LB C.J. Mosley has 46 tackles (11.5 per game) in his past four at home. He is one of three NFL players with 400 tackles (401), five sacks (7) and five INTs (7) since entering the league in 2014. ... S Eric Weddle has an interception in two of the past three games at home. ... LB Terrell Suggs has 8.5 sacks and a pick-six in the past seven meetings.


PREDICTION: The Dolphins are changing quarterbacks due to injury (again) and Ravens QB Joe Flacco is running out of targets. If Miami can run the clock and gain yards with Jay Ajayi running and receiving it might make Flacco's lack of familiar targets moot. But the call here is for the Ravens to get a needed victory at home.


OUR PICK: Ravens, 32-28.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )


10/23/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/22/2017 11-13-2 45.83% -16.50
10/19/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/16/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/15/2017 13-11-0 54.17% +4.50
10/12/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/09/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/08/2017 8-10-0 44.44% -15.00
10/05/2017 1-0-1 100.00% +5.00
10/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/01/2017 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00


Totals............37 - 39 - 3....48.68%....-29.50




Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total


10/23/2017................1 - 0.................+5.00...........0 - 1.........-5.50.............-0.50


10/22/2017................2 - 3 - 2.............-6.50............4 - 6.........-13.00...........-19.50


10/19/2017.................0 - 0.................+0.00...........0 - 1...........-5.50...............-5.50


10/16/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00...........1 - 0...........+5.00..............+10.00


10/15/2017.................2 - 4.................-12.00...........3 - 1...........+9.50..............-2.50


10/12/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0 ..........+5.00..............+10.00


10/09/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0...........+5.00..............+10.00


10/08/2017.................3 - 3.................-1.50.............2 - 4...........-12.00...............-13.50


10/05/2017.................0 - 0 - 1.............0.00.............1 - 0...........+5.00................+ 5.00


10/02/2017.................1 - 0................+5.00.............0 - 1............-5.50.................- 0.50


10/01/2017.................4 - 4.................-2.00.............2 - 2............- 1.00.................- 3.00


Totals......................16 - 14 - 3............-+3.00...........15 - 16...........-13.00................- 10.00


Sunday Night 2 Team Parlay...........................0 - 3..................................-15.00
.
Thursday Night 2 Team Parlay........................1 - 0..................................+12.50


Thursday Night Game of the month................1 - 0..................................+5.00


Monday Night 2 Team Parlay..........................1 - 0 .................................+12.50




*****************




THURSDAY, OCTOBER 26
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


MIA at BAL 08:25 PM


MIA +3.0 *****


O 38.5 *****

 

[CNOTES]

NFL notebook: Patriots LB Hightower done for season
October 26, 2017


New England Patriots middle linebacker Dont'a Hightower will miss the rest of the season with a torn pectoral muscle, an injury that was suffered in the third quarter of last Sunday's win over the Atlanta Falcons.


The Pro Bowler reportedly had surgery on Thursday to repair the injury and is expected to make a full recovery for 2018.


This is a huge loss for a New England defense that has struggled in the first half of the season. One player called Hightower the team's best defender while lamenting the loss and others used the word "special" to describe the linebacker both as a playmaker and a leader in the locker room as a team captain.


"He knows the defense like the back of his hand. To lose a guy like that is a huge blow for the team," linebacker David Harris said. "But as a linebacker group, we have to step up and try to fill his place, which is going to be tough to do. It's a huge loss."


--Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Telvin Smith signed a four-year contract extension, the team announced.


Financial terms were not disclosed by the team, but ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that the deal was worth $50 million.


Smith had signed a four-year contract worth $2.43 million after being selected by Jacksonville in the fifth round of the 2014 draft.


Smith has a team-leading 58 tackles this season to go along with two interceptions, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery. The 26-year-old has recorded 408 tackles and six interceptions, with two being returned for touchdowns.

--Carolina Panthers middle linebacker Luke Kuechly was a full participant in practice for the second straight day.


Kuechly, who sat out last week's contest versus the Chicago Bears with a concussion, is on pace to play for Carolina (4-3) in its NFC South road game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4) on Sunday.


Panthers coach Ron Rivera said Kuechly is progressing through the concussion protocol and he is "looking forward to having him out there." The four-time Pro Bowl selection still needs to be cleared by an independent neurologist before he can return to the field.


--Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers had screws inserted in his fractured right collarbone during surgery last week.


In a taped appearance on TBS' "Conan" that airs Thursday, Rodgers told host Conan O'Brien that doctors used "13 screws" to repair his collarbone. The 33-year-old Rodgers was injured during the first quarter of the Packers' 23-10 loss to the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on Oct. 15.


Rodgers, who was placed on injured reserve on Oct. 20, has another four weeks before he can practice and isn't eligible to play in a game until Dec. 17 at Carolina.

--Cleveland Browns rookie defensive end Myles Garrett will not travel with the team to London and has been ruled out of Sunday's game against the Minnesota Vikings with a concussion.


Garrett, who was the top overall pick of the 2017 draft, was placed in concussion protocol on Tuesday after complaining of symptoms upon entering the Browns' facility.


The 21-year-old registered a team-leading four sacks and has 11 tackles in his first three games this season.


--Arizona Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer was placed on injured reserve.


Palmer is expected to miss eight weeks with a broken left arm sustained in Sunday's 33-0 loss to the Los Angeles Rams.


Arizona (3-4) will have the option of bringing back Palmer should the club remain in contention. The 37-year-old is eligible to return for a Week 16 matchup with the New York Giants.


--Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Stefon Diggs is inching closer to his return to the field.


Diggs was a full participant in practice after sitting out the previous two games with a groin injury.


The 23-year-old Diggs is aiming to be back in the lineup for the NFC North-leading Vikings (5-2) in Sunday's game versus the Cleveland Browns (0-7) in London.

 

[CNOTES]

Vikings to start Keenum at QB vs Browns in London
October 27, 2017


LONDON (AP) Case Keenum will make his sixth start in eight games at quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings when they play Cleveland in London.


Coach Mike Zimmer confirmed on Friday the decision that he'd been coy about all week regarding Keenum, who has played well in relief of Sam Bradford.


Zimmer called the muddled quarterback situation ''a good problem to have'' and said he anticipates ''getting them all in there at some point in time.''


The Vikings (5-2) play the Browns (0-7) on Sunday at Twickenham Stadium.


Bradford has played in only half a game since the season opener because of knee trouble. He hasn't practiced with the team in three weeks. Teddy Bridgewater hasn't been added to the active roster, and the team is being careful about his return from a massive knee injury 14 months ago. Rookie Kyle Sloter has no NFL regular-season experience.


Jeremiah Sirles, who has started the last two games at left guard for Nick Easton, was ruled out with a knee injury. Left tackle Riley Reiff (knee) was a full participant in practice and listed as questionable.


Easton (calf) was also listed as questionable, along with wide receiver Stefon Diggs (groin, ankle), wide receiver Michael Floyd (hamstring) and cornerback Mackensie Alexander (hip). Diggs has missed the last two games. Floyd and Alexander sat out of the last game.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's Top 5 Wagers
October 27, 2017


We’re about to hit the halfway point of the season, which means things are going to start heating up across the board. We have tons of data to go on, but more than anything, we’ve been watching these teams play football. A lot of them aren’t passing the eye test, while there are a handful who deserve some recognition as underdog plays despite matchups.


Here’s a look at five of the toughest NFL betting lines to gauge in Week 8.


Odds per BetOnline.ag


Los Angeles Chargers +7 over New England Patriots


The Patriots were thin enough on defence before Don’t’a Hightower tore his peck. You know what that means: lots of throwing room for Philip Rivers and even more running room for Melvin Gordon. All in all, this number is too high, especially given how violent the Chargers have been defensively. The Chargers are also 5-1 ATS when playing a winning team on the road.


Also, you should love Philip Rivers in October. He’s 6-2 ATS when playing in the month, and while there’s little doubt that the Patriots can win this game, I don’t believe that they can hold off Rivers and Gordon in this game. Don’t get sold by the “west coast team playing in the early game”.


New York Jets +4.5 over Atlanta Falcons


At some point you just have to believe that the Jets are better than everyone expected them to be. They have this weird habit of rising to the level set by their opponents. In the last four games, they’ve averaged a -1 point differential against Jacksonville, Cleveland (away), New England and Miami (away). It’s a strange trip, but they’re also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games. That’s worthy of consideration.


As for the Falcons, it’s just too hard to believe that Matty Ice isn’t as frigid as star quarterbacks could be. A lot of people will tout this matchup as the one where the Falcons get back on the horse, but this team feels absolutely broken. Atlanta isn’t just 0-3 SU and ATS, they’re coming off a blowout loss to a team that the Jets almost defeated.


Until Atlanta proves that they’re worthy of your investment, there’s no reason to back them. The Jets have done more than enough to warrant a look.


Carolina Panthers +2 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers


Are we done throwing blind faith at Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? There’s just no trusting this team. They can look proficient and capable in losses, but the fact is that they still lose games and they’ve covered one time the whole season.


Beyond that, the Panthers just seem to play better on the road as they’ve gone 3-1 ATS when travelling. They walloped San Francisco 23-3 to start the season, beat New England and Detroit before vomiting all over Soldier Field against the Bears last weekend in a 3-17 loss. Stuff happens.


Cam Newton and his uneven offensive output gets all the press for the Panthers. However, what makes Carolina a great bet overall is their no-big-play defence, which ranks 3rd in yards against and only surrenders 19.9 points against per game.


The only thing Tampa does is try to produce big gainers, and they won’t be able to do that against a Carolina defence that eviscerates the run and limits the pass. I’m not telling you to buy in to 2017 Newton or Winston, but I am advising that the Panthers defence is the big x-factor here.


Washington Redskins +2 over Dallas Cowboys


There’s a prevailing thought that the Redskins are simply too banged up to compete. And that’s probably true. Almost none of their defensive core is operating at full capacity. There’s also major concern along the offensive line with tackles Morgan Moses and Trent Williams hurting.


This is the type of game where Chris Thompson rushes for a billion yards and multiple scores, because Dallas can’t seem to contain quality running-backs. Aaron Jones ran for 125, Todd Gurley amassed 121 and even Carlos Hyde averaged 4.8 yards a carry before the Niners had to go airborne to catch up on the scoreboard.


And here’s the rub – even with all these niggling injuries, Washington remains competitive. Call it the Kirk Cousins corollary. He just finds ways to keep his team in contention, and the chemistry that is erupting between hi and Jordan Reed is a problem for Dallas. I don’t like the Dallas defence at all. They’re the biggest reason that the Cowboys can’t win or cover despite having one of the best offences in town.


Would rather lose money on a Washington team that plays through injury than a Dallas team that can’t quite seem to protect themselves when playing good teams.


Seattle Seahawks -5.5 over Houston Texans


After two abysmal weeks at quarterback, Deshaun Watson has arrived. Nobody is debating the fact that he’s going to be the franchise for Houston for years to come. What I will argue, however, is whether or not him and the Texans are trustworthy against good teams.


We really have one sample of when Watson had to go up against an elite defence, and he was easily taken care of by Kansas City. Yes, he put up five touchdowns, but two of those came in absolute garbage time. Remember, this is the game when he went for a two-point conversion with no time left on the clock while being down by ten points.


This line is designed to snare some believers who are buying in on the Houston Texans, but the real second half team to bank on is the Seattle Seahawks. This defence is one of the best in the NFL, and are finally playing like it. The Seahawks allow the fewest points in the league and have a known secondary that can haunt rookies like Watson.


A lot of what Houston does well offensively comes in the form of big plays to DeAndre and Fuller, but the Seahawks do an exceptional job of keeping those types of impacts limited. Credit Earl Thomas with your money here. The Seahawks are about to frustrate the living hell out of Houston and remind everyone that they’re an NFC contender in the process.

 

[CNOTES]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 8
October 27, 2017


The Seattle Seahawks started the season a little sluggish offensively while losing their opener at Green Bay, 17-9, and also in Week 3 at Tennessee, 33-27, but they appear to have their act together on both sides of the ball while riding a three-game win streak.


They get a visit from the Texans on Sunday and despite Houston scoring 33 or more points in their last four games behind rookie quarterback DeShaun Watson, the betting world is loving their old reliable Seattle Seahawks like it was 2013 again.


"This Seattle side is jumping today, we're up to -6 now," said MGM Resorts VP of race and sports Jay Rood who moved Seattle from -5.5 to -6 on Friday. "The public is on that side as well so it's going to be one of our biggest risks on the day."


The total on the game has risen from 44.5 to 45.5 showing a great respect with Watson's offense that has helped Houston's games go 'over' the total in four of his five starts. Will Seattle's defense stop him or is Watson going to continue to shine? That looks to be the main storyline here and the sports books sure hope he does his thing well.


Once again, the books need the worst team in the NFL to cover. Showing good will to our London brothers and sisters, your colonies give you the pleasure of watching our winless Cleveland Browns (0-7) this Sunday morning at 9:30 a.m. ET.


"The biggest one-sided game of the day is the Vikings," Rood said. "We'll be at -10 soon and we don't even have any real big straight bet action. It's mostly parlays."


Caesars Palace is the only book in town showing Minnesota -10, but most books will likely be there during the weekend. So if you like the Browns, wait for double-digits. They did cover last week against the Titans, so that's 2-5 against the spread this season.


"We're also going to needs the Bears +8.5 even though we did take one sharp bet at +9," Rood said of Chicago's game at New Orleans. "They've been a tough team each week despite not showing well statistically -- that can't be sustainable. It has to catch up with them soon. But we'll be rooting for them this week."


The New Orleans Saints have won and covered their last four while the Chicago Bears have been gritty in covering their last three. Another ugly team the books are good to need is going to be the San Francisco 49ers.


"The 49ers have been playing well this season, except for last week and we're going to need them pretty good this week," Rood said. "The Eagles have become a very popular public team."


The 49ers got blasted 40-10 against Dallas last week, but despite being 0-7 they've been better than the Las Vegas rating going 4-3 ATS. The high-flying Philadelphia Eagles have gone 5-2 ATS and they're up to -13 at most sports books, a number Rood says is about 4-points too high but done so because of public perception.


Another team getting bonus points added to the spread because of popularity is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have won their last two and have their defense playing its best while consistently feeding running back Le'Veon Bell on offense.


"Our biggest risk of all is going to be the Steelers on Sunday night," he said. "We took two pops on the Steelers at -3 even and -3 -110, and then we have all the parlay action on them as well."


Despite the high number, sharps still laid it which is unusual, but also telling about how they feel about the Detroit Lions who come off a bye.


When the first 10 games are graded, no matter how poorly or well the sports books did, their day may ultimately rest with trying to beat the Steelers with extended parlay risk.


Rood says his worst case four-team parlay scenario cashing collectively on Sunday is Minnesota, New Orleans, Philadelphia and Detroit.

 

[CNOTES]

Gridiron Angles - Week 8
October 28, 2017


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:


-- The Falcons are 10-0 ATS (14.0 ppg) since October 24, 2010 as a favorite coming off a road game where they allowed at least 150 rushing yards.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:


-- The Texans are 0-11 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since December 10, 2012 as a dog coming off a win where they scored at least 24 points.


TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:


-- The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS (12.3 ppg) since Nobember 2012 at home coming off a game where Russell Wilson threw at least 35 passes.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:


-- The Lions are 12-0 OU (12.0 ppg) since Dec 13, 2009 off a game as a road dog of more than three points where they committed multiple turnovers.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:


-- The Seahawks are 0-10 OU (-12.7 ppg) since October 26, 2014 coming off a road game where they had at least 32 minutes time of possession.


NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:


-- The Bengals are 12-0 ATS (+10.0 ppg) at home on turf when their opponent allowed more than 365 total yards and had less than 33 minutes of possession time in their last game.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 8
October 28, 2017


The ‘under’ went 8-7 last week and there were some clear-cut winners in that group with not one, not two but three shutouts posted on the scoreboard. Not to mention, we had another three games were teams were held to just one score. To put things in perspective, the 2016 regular season only had three bagels posted and we’re up to six this season, which includes this past Thursday’s result between Baltimore and Miami.


The back-and-forth results in the totals market continues to hold firm and through seven weeks, the ‘under’ barely holds an edge at 53-52-1.


Line Moves


Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday morning based off the Week 8 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.


Chicago at New Orleans: 50 to 47 ½
Atlanta at N.Y. Jets: 47 to 44 ½
Carolina at Tampa Bay: 44 to 46
San Francisco at Philadelphia: 47 ½ to 45 ½
Houston at Seattle: 43 to 46
Pittsburgh at Detroit: 44 ½ to 46 ½


It’s rare to see a total at the Superdome drop but Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu admitted their oversight.


He explained, “We really had no business opening this even close to 50, and the sharps took advantage of a bad line quickly. I think this is a matter of both defenses overachieving at this point in the season. They (Saints) still aren’t great defensively, but certainly better than anticipated.”


While seeing a New Orleans total go down, bettors could be perplexed when seeing a Seattle total rise.


“Seattle is certainly going to be a great test for Deshaun Watson and the Texans offense. But other than Andy Reid, I don’t know who is calling better plays right now than Bill O’Brien (perhaps Sean McVay). With Watson, the playbook has opened up and the ‘Hawks will have their hands full,” said Cooley.


Along with having risk on those two games, Cooley told VI that the major offshore betting shop has liability on the ‘under’ in the Falcons-Jets and 49ers-Eagles matchups and the ‘over’ in the Panthers-Buccaneers game.


Keep an Eye On


-- Minnesota and Cleveland will play in this week’s NFL International Series and this game has an early start (9:30 a.m. ET) from London, England. The ‘under’ has gone 2-1 in the first three games played overseas and unfortunately the locals were treated to a pair of the aforementioned shutouts. Another low-scoring affair (38) is expected and Cleveland has been a solid ‘under’ bet (5-2) this season. Minnesota (4-3) has leaned to the ‘over’ but all three ‘under’ tickets came away from home. This will be the last game from the UK this season, but there is one more contest in this series which takes place in Week 11 from Mexico City between the Patriots and Raiders.

-- There will be four non-conference games in Week 8 and these matchups have watched the ‘over’ go 15-13-1.


-- The Steelers and Dolphins finally cashed their first ‘over’ result last week and Miami made it two in a row to the high side this past Thursday. Will Pittsburgh keep the trend rolling on SNF (see below) at Detroit?


-- It’s very likely that no totals will close in the fifties in Week 8, which would be the first time this season that it’s happened. We’ve had 12 games close in that neighborhood so far and the results have been a stalemate (6-6).

Bye Beware?


Teams playing with rest this season have watched the ‘over’ go 5-3 in their following game and that includes a 3-1 mark last week. The Detroit Lions and Houston Texans will both be playing off their bye week on Sunday.


Sticking with rest, one of my VI colleagues pointed out a total trend that’s focused on teams playing before the bye. Including the six teams off this weekend, we’ve had 16 clubs have their bye week. Based on our numbers, the ‘under’ has gone 12-4 in games for the teams playing just before the bye.


Confused?


Green Bay, Tennessee, L.A. Rams, N.Y. Giants, Arizona and Jacksonville are all on their bye in Week 8 and coincidentally all of those teams saw the ‘under’ connect in their Week 7 games.


Will that balance out or should we press the angle? I’m not sure but there are two matchups this week where both teams will be off in Week 9 – Cleveland vs. Minnesota, L.A. Chargers vs. New England.


The other teams off next weekend will be Chicago and Pittsburgh.


Home-Away Tendencies


As we’re approaching the midway point of the regular season, we’re starting to see some total trends for both the hosts and visitors. There are a few to watch in Week 8 and four of the teams will be squaring off against one against another.


New Orleans: 2-0 ‘over’ at home. Saints averaging 36 PPG, allowing 37 PPG in two games.


Indianapolis: 3-0 ‘over’ on the road. Colts have the worst scoring defense (42.7 PPG) on the road.


Cincinnati: 3-0 ‘under’ at home. Bengals ranked last in scoring offense at home with 9.7 PPG


Oakland: 3-0 ‘under’ on the road. Raiders only averaging 15.3 PPG.


Detroit: 3-0 ‘over’ at home. Lions averaging 28.3 PPG at Ford Field.


Divisional Contests


The ‘under’ went 3-2 in the divisional games last week, pushing the ‘under’ to 22-10 overall. As I wrote last week, I do believe these numbers will balance out and I’m going to pay close attention to the rematches. The Jets-Dolphins game easily went ‘over’ last week while their first game was a stone-cold ‘under’ winner. At the same time, the Chargers-Broncos saw the ‘under’ connect after their Week 1 opener went high.


Carolina at Tampa Bay: The ‘under’ went 2-0 between the pair last season with a combined 33 and 31 points posted. This total has been steamed up as the pros continue to fade the defense of the Buccaneers defense, which is ranked 30th in yards per play allowed (6.1). The unit has allowed 28.8 PPG in their last five and that’s helped the ‘over’ go 4-1. You just wonder if Carolina, coming off a 3-point effort, can have the same production against Tampa Bay. In road wins over the Patriots and Lions, QB Cam Newton looked great but it’s been the exact opposite the last two weeks. Sticking with gun slingers, Bucs QB Jameis Winston hasn’t had much success in this first four games (4 TDs, 7 INTs) against the Panthers.


Dallas at Washington: These teams watched the ‘over’ go 2-0 last season and the high side is on a 4-1 run in the past five games in this series. The Redskins and Cowboys both enter this game with identical 4-2 ‘over’ records. After a slow start in its first two games (18 PPG), Dallas has posted 28-plus points in each of its last four. The Redskins defense, without CB Josh Norman, allowed 58 points the last two weeks and 495 passing yards which resulted in a pair of losses. He’s expected to return Sunday and that should help stop the bleeding for Washington. However, the offensive line for the Redskins will be missing at least two starters and possibly another two.


Denver at Kansas City: (See Below)

Under the Lights


The ‘under’ produced a 2-1 mark in the primetime games last week but the ‘over’ still holds a slight lean at 14-9 (61%) on the season and that includes last Thursday’s high side ticket between the Ravens and Dolphins, which was boosted with a pair of late pick-six defensive touchdowns.


Pittsburgh at Detroit: According to our Vegas Money Moves report, this game will decide the week for the bookmakers. The total has gone from 44 ½ to 46 ½ and I suppose the masses believe Pittsburgh’s juggernaut of an offense is back. The unit just posted a season-high 29 points last Sunday and it could’ve been better if they didn’t settle for five field goals. While the offense receives all the attention in Western Pennsylvania, it’s about time the defense gets noticed. They lead the league in yards per play (4.4), second in total defense (258.7 YPG) and third in scoring (16.6 PPG). Detroit’s offense will be a very stiff test at Ford Field and while Pittsburgh has been a great ‘under’ bet (6-1), the Lions are 3-0 to the ‘over’ at home. One trend that could have you leaning low is the Lions ‘under’ run (4-0) in their last four off the bye which has been helped with some solid defensive performances (18 PPG).


Denver at Kansas City: This total opened 44 ½ and has been bet down to 43 as of Saturday morning. The ‘over’ has gone 3-0-1 in the last four encounters but the lowest total during that span was 42. This is your classic ‘offense vs. defense’ matchup as the Broncos will look to contain the Chiefs attack. Denver’s offense (18 PPG) has been a mess lately and having success at Arrowhead won’t be easy. Make a note that KC has seen the ‘over’ go 4-0 in primetime games this season, which includes the fortunate outcome in Week 4 versus the Redskins.


Fearless Predictions


After finally getting the bankroll into the black, I laid an egg with a 1-3 mark ($220) and that put me back into the red on the season ($90). We don’t have as many opportunities this week but the confidence is strong. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!


Best Over: Oakland-Buffalo 46


Best Under: Houston-Seattle 46


Best Team Total: Atlanta Over 25 ½


Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Over 37 ½ Oakland-Buffalo
Over 39 ½ L.A. Chargers-New England
Under 56 Dallas-Washington

 

[CNOTES]

NFL notebook: Texans' McNair meets with players
October 28, 2017


A day after his "inmates running the prison" comment in reference to ongoing player protests during the national anthem became public, Houston Texans owner Bob McNair met with the players Saturday morning and later issued a second statement.


"I know they were upset," McNair told the Houston Chronicle. "I wanted to answer their questions. I told them if I had it to do over again, I wouldn't use that expression."


Later Saturday, McNair issued a statement that expanded on his apology from Friday.


"As I said yesterday, I was not referring to our players when I made a very regretful comment during the owners meetings last week," McNair's statement read. "I was referring to the relationship between the league office and team owners and how they have been making significant strategic decisions affecting our league without adequate input from ownership over the past few years.


"I am truly sorry to the players for how this has impacted them and the perception that it has created of me which could not be further from the truth. Our focus going forward, personally and as an organization, will be towards making meaningful progress regarding the social issues that mean so much to our players and our community."


A Texans offensive starter told ESPN that the team will meet Saturday night "to discuss a demonstration tomorrow." The player also said that he expects everyone on the team to travel Saturday to Seattle for Sunday's game against the Seahawks.

--The Texans activated left tackle Duane Brown to the active roster in advance of Sunday's road game against the Seattle Seahawks.


The 32-year-old Brown returned to the team Monday after his holdout did not result in a new contract. He is entering his 10th NFL season and is the longest-tenured Texans player.


Brown, whose base salary was $9.4 million this season, lost about $3.3 million -- forfeiting six $552,921 game checks -- by not reporting. He will have about $6.1 million remaining on his base salary.

--The Tampa Bay Buccaneers ruled out four-time Pro Bowl selection Brent Grimes and fellow cornerback Robert McClain for Sunday's game against the Carolina Panthers at Raymond James Stadium.


Grimes sustained a shoulder injury against the Buffalo Bills last Sunday, while McClain has yet to be cleared from concussion protocol. Neither participated in practice all week.


Vernon Hargreaves III and Ryan Smith are likely to start for the Buccaneers (2-4) against the Panthers (4-3). Javien Elliott and Deji Olatoye are the other cornerbacks on the active roster.


--The Minnesota Vikings promoted center Cornelius Edison from the practice squad.


The Vikings had an open spot on the 53-man roster following the one-game suspension of safety Andrew Sendejo, who received the ban from the NFL for a flagrant violation of safety-related playing rules in last Sunday's win over the Baltimore Ravens.


The 6-foot-3, 312-pound Edison joins the Vikings' active roster in advance of Sunday's game in London against the Cleveland Browns. He spent the first seven weeks of the season on the practice squad.


--The Denver Broncos signed linebacker Kevin Snyder to their active roster and waived wide receiver Hunter Sharp, the team announced.


Snyder, 6-foot-2, 245 pounds, was signed to the team's practice squad on Tuesday. He played in all four preseason games for the Broncos this year. He was also on the practice squad during the last three weeks of last season. As a rookie in 2015, Snyder was on the New England Patriots' active roster. He also spent that season on the practice squads of the Patriots and San Francisco 49ers.


Sharp played one game, against the Chargers in Los Angeles. He served as a backup receiver and starting punt returner.

 

[CNOTES]

SuperContest Picks - Week 8
October 28, 2017


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.


Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.


The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.


This year's contest has 2,748, which is an all-time record.


Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.


Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7


Week 8


1) Carolina +2 (844)
2) New Orleans -9 (801)
3) Seattle -5.5 (797)
4) Atlanta -4.5 (766)
5) L.A. Chargers +7 (746)


SUPERCONTEST WEEK 8 MATCHUPS & ODDS


Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Miami (+3) 257 Baltimore (-3) 165
Minnesota (-9.5) 610 Cleveland (+9.5) 226
Chicago (+9) 370 New Orleans (-9) 801
Atlanta (-4.5) 766 N.Y. Jets (+4.5) 439
Carolina (+2) 844 Tampa Bay (-2) 299
San Francisco (+12.5) 538 Philadelphia (-12.5) 343
Oakland (+2.5) 711 Buffalo (-2.5) 596
Indianapolis (+10.5) 353 Cincinnati (-10.5) 249
L.A. Chargers (+7) 746 New England (-7) 482
Houston (+5.5) 513 Seattle (-5.5) 797
Dallas (-2) 745 Washington (+2) 638
Pittsburgh (-3) 606 Detroit (+3) 643
Denver (+7) 356 Kansas City (-7) 512


WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
-
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 0-5 0-5 0%
2 3-2 3-7 30%
3 2-3 5-10 33%
4 4-1 9-11 45%
5 1-4 10-15 40%
6 2-3 12-18 40%
7 0-5 12-23 34%