Betting Recap - Week 6
October 9, 2016
Overall Notes
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 6 RESULTS
WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 33-20
Against the Spread 18-35
WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 34-19
Against the Spread 24-29
WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 26-27
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Navy (+16.5, ML +650) vs. Houston, 46-40
Texas-San Antonio (+15.5, ML +550) vs. Southern Mississippi, 55-32
North Texas (+13.5, ML +400) vs. Marshall, 38-21
Oregon State (+13.5, ML +425) vs. California, 47-44 (OT)
Charlotte (+13, ML +400) at Florida Atlantic, 28-23
Wyoming (+13 ML, +400) vs. Air Force, 35-26
The largest favorites to cover
Michigan (-30) at Rutgers, 78-0
Boise State (-18.5) at New Mexico, 49-21
Clemson (-17.5) at Boston College, 56-10
Top 25 Notes
-- Michigan looked awfully impressive, throttling Rutgers by a 78-0 score in Piscataway. No offense to the Wolverines, but the Scarlet Knights have been outscored 136-0 in the past two weeks. So the win was impressive, sure, but Rutgers might really be just that bad, too. ... Fans were sad in Louisville, and they were on a bye. That's because Houston, the only true marquee opponent left on the Cardinals' schedule, dropped a game at Navy, 46-40. The loss likely hurts Louisville's playoff hopes, as they banked on the Cougars being unbeaten when they faced each other later in the season. Boise State fans certainly liked it, as they likely move to the top of the non-Power 5 teams with a New Year's Day bowl shot if they keep flying right. The Broncos snapped a three-game non-cover streak with a win at New Mexico, 49-21. As it stands right now, the Broncos do not play a ranked opponent the rest of the way out.
-- Stanford was pounded last week at Washington, and they were expected to bounce back at home against Washington State. No dice. The Cougars came down to 'The Farm' and rolled the Cardinal 42-16. All of a sudden the league's playoff hopes are all on the backs of the Huskies of Washington. ... The Huskies exorcised a ton of demons, winning 70-21 at Oregon, taking out 12 years of frustration on the Webfoots. The Huskies have covered two in a row, and they're 4-2 ATS in six games overall. The 'over' is also 5-1 in their six games, including all three games inside the Pac-12.
-- Florida State was off to an uncharactertically poor start, losing each of their first two ACC games. They headed to rival Miami-Florida looking to save their season, and it didn't look good early. The Seminoles were down 13-3 into the second half, but they outscored the Hurricanes 14-0 to grab the lead. The Seminoles were clinging to a 20-13 when Miami scored with 1:38 to go. It appeared like the game was headed for overtime, but the Seminoles blocked the point-after attempt for a miraculous 20-19 win, another historic chapter in this rivalry.
-- In a battle of Top 10 squads, Tennessee looked for yet another miracle finish in front of the 12th man at Texas A&M, but the Aggies held on for a 45-38 overtime victory. A&M led by 21 points at one point midway through the third quarter, but the Vols continue to show no quit. However, their luck digging themselves out of early holes finally came to an end. To make matters worse, former Vols LB Ovince Saint Preux lost by second-round KO to Jimi Manuwa at UFC 204. Not a good day for the Power T.
Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)
-- Hurricane Matthew made an absolute mess of the great Tar Heel state Saturday, as all four conference members played home games, and all four resulted in 'under' results. Hopefully you took advantage. ... North Carolina State splashed around in the mud and puddles, holding off Notre Dame 10-3 in a game I attended. The 'over' was never even close to being challenged, closing at 56.5. The second-half 'under' also came through at 17.5, as the Irish slipped to 2-4 SU/ATS. Next up for the Irish, a game against equally disappointing Stanford. ... Virginia Tech-North Carolina (49.5), Army-Duke (43) and Syracuse-Wake Forest (53.5) each easily cashed in the slop and mud left in the wake of the passing hurricane.
-- Ohio State posted a 38-17 victory over Indiana, but the Hoosiers were able to run their record to 6-0 ATS in the past six meetings in this series. The Hoosiers also improved to 2-0 ATS in two league games, while the 'under' is 4-1 in five games this season. The 'under' is also 3-1 in the past four for Ohio State, and 2-0 in their two games inside the conference. ... Iowa came home from Minnesota with Floyd of Rosedale, winning 14-7 over the Golden Gophers. The Hawkeyes slapped the brakes on a three-game non-cover streak with the win, their second 14-7 victory in the past three weekends. The 'under' is 4-1 in the past five for Iowa. ... Purdue-Illinois didn't look like a great game on paper heading in, but it turned out to be a pretty good game. The Boilermakers came away with a 34-31 overtime win in Champaign. The 'over' is 4-1 in Purdue's five games this season, including each of their two road games and two conference tilts.
-- Oklahoma and Texas renewed acquaintances in Dallas in their Red River rivalry, and it was another good one. After a slow first half, the Sooners and Longhorns combined for 58 points. After the dust cleared, it was the Sooners winning 45-40, and the Longhorns covering again in the series. ... Texas Christian bearly squeaked by at Kansas, edging the lowly Jayhawks 24-23. TCU is 4-2 SU, but they slipped to 1-5 ATS in six games heading into their game at West Virginia next week. Kansas has dropped four in a row, going 1-3 ATS during the span. The 'under' is also 4-0 in their past four.
-- Colorado was able to keep their cover streak alive, but they lost 21-17 at Southern California. The Trojans are 0-3 SU/0-3 ATS in neutral-site or road games, but they're 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS at home. Next week they head to Arizona. ... Speaking of the Wildcats, they slipped up at 10-point underdogs at Utah, losing 36-23. It was the fourth consecutive 'over' result for the Wildcats heading into their game with USC, who has had the 'over' cash in two of their three road outings.
-- Alabama stayed perfect with a 49-30 win at Arkansas. The Crimson Tide have alternated wins and losses in each of the past five weekends. ... In a game moved to Sunday by Hurricane Matthew, Georgia got back on track with a 28-14 win at South Carolina. It was the first cover in three true road games for the Bulldogs this season. The Gamecocks have alternated covers in each of their six games this season, and their loss non-cover at Williams-Bryce Stadium was their first non-cover in three tries. The total also was a bad beat (see below). They're back home in two weeks, stepping out of conference against Massachusetts.
Mid-Major Report
-- South Florida marched on with a 38-22 win over East Carolina, 38-22. The Bulls improved to 5-1 ATS, and 2-0 SU/ATS in two conference tilts. ... Connecticut surprised Cincinnati 20-9, evening up their overall record at 3-3 SU. It was also their first cover in six tries, moving to 1-4-1 ATS in that area. Next up is a trip to South Florida next Saturday. ... Tulane-UCF was postponed due to Hurricane Matthew, and it's likely to be made up Nov. 5 when both teams have open dates.
-- In Conference USA Louisiana Tech and Texas-San Antonio each posted 55 points, winning at home 'dogs in their conference games. UTSA had the biggest shocker, topping conference heavyweight Southern Mississippi, 55-32. The Roadrunners are 2-1 ATS in their past three games, and the 'over' has connected in each of the outings. ... Old Dominion is quietly having a nice season, winning and covering for the third straight game in a non-conference win over Massachusetts, 36-16.
-- Ohio won at winless Miami-Ohio, but it was anything but easy. The scratched out a 17-7 win, and needed a strip sack and touchdown with about a minute to go to secure the victory. The RedHawks are winless in five tries, but they a respectable 3-2. The 'under' is a perfect 4-0 in the past four games for both Ohio and Miami. ... Very quietly Eastern Michigan has improved to 4-1 SU/ATS in five outings, including straight-up wins in the past two weekends as an underdog.
-- Wyoming shocked Air Force, 35-26. The Cowboys have been stout in Laramie, improving to 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS. The Cowboys have also covered in back-to-back games for the first time this season. ... Hawai'i headed to the mainland and picked up a win at San Jose State, 34-17. Don't look now, but the Warriors have covered three in a row and have back-to-back straight-up victories heading into their home game with UNLV next Saturday.
-- Idaho hit the road and earned a win at Louisiana-Monroe, 34-31. The Vandals have surprisingly won back-to-back games on the road, covering in each. The 'over' is also 3-1 in Idaho's four road games to date. ... Georgia State earned a rare home cover over Texas State, winning 41-21. The Panthers entered 2-8 SU/2-7-1 ATS in their past 10 home games before the solid victory.
Bad Beats
-- The 'under' appeared to be on track in UGA-South Carolina (41.5) in Sunday's game. The Gamecocks scored with 1:40 to close the lead to 21-14, but the Bulldogs ripped off a 43-yard kickoff return on an onside kick attempt, sealing the win. The 'over' cashed by a mere half-point at most shops. It was also a bad beat for Gamecocks side bettors, who thought their side might have earned the fortunate backdoor cover.
-- Colorado was down seven with 4:49 to go at USC, but they elected to kick a field goal to cut the lead to 21-17 rather than going for it on fourth down. It might have been meaningless to the result of the game, as Colorado still needed a touchdown on its final possession, but Trojans side bettors were certainly steamed laying the five.
-- Memphis was covering a 9 1/2-point spread for most of the game against Temple Thursday. The Owls kept fighting back, but the Tigers kept responding to push their lead to double digits. With 6:35, Memphis scored to increase its lead to 34-20. But with 3:49 left the Owls scored the final touchdown of the game, cutting Memphis' lead to seven and killing Tigers side bettors in the process.
-- Iowa State moneyline bettors had dreams of a big payday at Oklahoma State, as the Cyclones held a 31-21 lead heading into the fourth quarter. But OK State outscored I-State 17-0 in the final stanza to come away with the conference victory, including the deciding touchdown with 3:40 to go.
