SEC Championship Preview
December 2, 2016
ATLANTA -- For the ninth time since former commissioner Roy Kramer invented the SEC Championship Game in 1992, Florida and Alabama will collide Saturday afternoon to decide the conference champ. It will be the seventh and final time these schools will meet at the Georgia Dome.
The first two SEC Championship Games were played at Legion Field in Birmingham. The event will move to the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta next year.
If Alabama wins on Saturday, it will tie the Gators for the most wins at this event with seven. UF is making its league-record 12th appearance, while Alabama will rep the West for the 11th time.
As of late Friday afternoon, most books had Alabama (12-0 straight up, 8-4 against the spread) as a 24-point favorite with a total of 41. The Gators had 12/1 odds to win outright at most spots.
This is the 10th time a team has been a double-digit favorite at the SEC Championship Game. The underdog has posted a 4-5 spread record in those nine previous games. This line, assuming it holds, will be tied for the highest in the game’s history. Florida was a 24-point ‘chalk’ over Danny Ford’s Arkansas squad in 1995 when the Gators won 34-3. They put the game away late in the first half when Ben Hanks intercepted a pitch on an option play and ran it back 95 yards.
Nick Saban’s team completed an unbeaten regular season by winning by a double-digit margin for the 11th time this year at last week’s Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide beat Auburn by a 30-12 count as a 20-point home ‘chalk,’ while the 42 combined points fell ‘under’ the 47-point tally.
Auburn led 3-0 early and trimmed the deficit to 10-9 on Daniel Carlson’s third of four field goals from 39 yards out with 3:30 left in the first half. Alabama would score the next 17 points, however, to extend the lead to 27-9 on a 38-yard touchdown pass from Jalen Hurts to ArDarius Stewart with 5:16 left in the third. After another FG from Carlson made it a two-possession game, Adam Griffith’s 34-yard field goal with 12:46 remaining provided the last of the scoring.
Alabama’s defense limited Auburn to 182 yards of total offense, while the Tide’s offense produced 501 yards. Hurts was intercepted twice, but he also threw for 286 yards and two TDs and ran for 37 yards and one score. Stewart finished with 10 receptions for 127 yards and one TD, while Bo Scarbrough rushed for 90 yards on 17 totes.
Hurts, a true freshman, has been sensational. He has completed 65.8 percent of his passes for 2,425 yards with a 20/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Hurts is more dangerous with his legs, rushing for 840 yards and 12 TDs. Another quality trait for Hurts is his calm, especially for a freshman. The dude never gets rattled.
Damien Harris has rushed for a team-high 897 yards and two TDs while averaging 7.2 yards per carry. Joshua Jacobs, another true freshman, has run for 516 yards and three TDs with a 6.7 YPC average. Jacobs also has 12 receptions for 153 yards, while Harris has 13 grabs for 105 yards and two TDs.
Stewart has 49 receptions for 774 yards and seven TDs despite missing 2.5 games. Calvin Ridley, a true sophomore who is a future star in the NFL, has 61 catches for 691 yards and seven TDs. O.J. Howard is one of the nation’s top tight ends, bringing down 35 balls for 404 yards and two TDs.
Alabama’s most notable victories have come vs. Southern Cal (52-6 at Jerry World in Arlington), at Arkansas (49-30), at Tennessee (49-10), vs. Texas A&M (33-14) and at LSU (10-0).
Alabama’s defense certainly didn’t lose a step with former coordinator Kirby Smart leaving to become the head coach at Georgia. UGA’s former DC Jeremy Pruitt returned to Tuscaloosa to take over for Smart.
Alabama is ranked No. 1 in the nation in total defense (247.2 yards per game), No. 1 against the run and No. 1 in scoring (11.4 points per game). This unit has future NFL players galore, including senior DE Jonathan Allen, who has recorded 52 tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss, seven sacks, 13 QB hurries, two passes broken up, one blocked field goal and two TDs on fumble returns that covered 105 total yards.
Florida (8-3 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) wrapped up the SEC East by winning a 16-10 decision at LSU as a 14-point underdog two weeks ago at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge. Jim McElwain’s team clinched a date with Alabama thanks to an epic goal-line stand in the final minute.
However, UF had to hit the road again last week to face arch-rival Florida State at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee. FSU captured a 31-13 win as an 8.5-point home favorite, breaking open a tight game when Deondre Francois found Travis Rudolph for a 46-yard scoring strike on a third-and-10 play to give the Seminoles a 17-6 advantage with 5:38 left in the third quarter.
With UF’s offense going 0-for-12 on third downs, the short-handed defense eventually gassed out and gave up a 27-yard TD run to FSU’s Freddie Stevenson early in the fourth quarter. After the ‘Noles quickly forced a three and out, their punt returner fumbled on the return and UF’s Marcell Harris recovered and went 12 yards for a TD.
UF would get the ball back with a chance to get closer, but it wasn’t to be. The offense was deplorable for four quarter other than the opening drive, but McElwain went for it on fourth-and-goal at the 2-yard line and Austin Appleby threw incomplete after getting pressured early.
Appleby will be making his sixth start of the season. UF has gone 3-2 in the grad transfer from Purdue’s five starts. Appleby has completed 60.0 percent of his throws for 964 yards with a 6/2 TD-INT ratio.
If UF is going to hang around with the nation’s top-ranked team, it is going to need some explosive plays. The most capable candidate of providing those is true sophomore Antonio Callaway, who has produced 905 all-purpose yards on 72 touches. Callaway has a team-best 43 catches for 603 yards and two TDs. He is the only player in school history to score a TD in five different ways – kick return, punt return, run, pass and catch.
Florida has plenty of depth at the RB position, but Jordan Scarlett is the best of the bunch. Scarlett, a true sophomore, has rushed for 778 yards and six TDs while averaging 5.1 YPC. Lamical Perine, a true freshman, has run for 394 yards and one TD with a 4.9 YPC average. Perine also has eight catches for 129 yards and one TD.
Florida will be without at least five defensive starters in Atlanta. The latest starter to go down was junior DE Jordan Sherit, who will require knee surgery after being injured in the second half at FSU. Sherit has recorded 38 tackles, five tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks and two QB hurries. His play on Derrius Guice on fourth-and-goal on the game’s final play at LSU saved the game.
Other starters besides Sherit who are ‘out’ include senior safety Marcus Maye, junior LB Alex Anzalone, senior DE Bryan Cox and junior safety Nick Washington. LB Daniel McMillian and reserve DB Duke Dawson, who had a pick-six at Arkansas, are listed as ‘doubtful.’
On the bright side, star senior LB Jarrad Davis has practiced this week and will start after missing three consecutive. Davis is the team’s second-leading tackler, registering 56 tackles, six TFL’s, two sacks, four PBU and five QB hurries.
Florida is ranked sixth in the nation in total defense, fourth against the pass and fifth in scoring (14.6 PPG). The Gators have two of the nation’s top CBs in Teez Tabor and Quincy Wilson. Just like UF needs at least one explosive play from Callaway, it could certainly use a pick-six from either one of these players. Tabor, a true junior, has nine career interceptions and three pick-sixes.
Alabama has won five in a row in this storied rivalry, cashing tickets at a 4-1 ATS clip. The Gators’ lone cover came in backdoor fashion at last season’s game in Atlanta. UF lost a 29-15 decision but took the money as a 17-point underdog thanks to a 46-yard TD pass from Treon Harris to C.J. Worton with 5:02 remaining. The ‘over’ has hit in three straight head-to-head meetings between these schools and four of the last five. UF’s other TD in last year’s game came on an 85-yard punt return for a TD by Callaway.
Florida owns a 3-4-1 spread record with two outright wins (vs. Ole Miss last year, at LSU this season) in eight games as an underdog on McElwain’s watch. The Gators are 2-0 ATS under McElwain with one outright victory as double-digit ‘dogs.
Meanwhile, Alabama is 7-4 ATS in 11 games as a double-digit favorite this year. The only single-digit ‘chalk’ spot came in its win at LSU. The only game Alabama hasn’t won by a double-digit margin was its 48-43 triumph at Ole Miss.
The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for Alabama, going 4-1 in its last five contests. The Tide has seen its games average combined scores of 50.8 PPG. This is the lowest total ‘Bama has seen this season. The previous low was 46 in the 10-0 win at Tiger Stadium where the ‘under’ was an easy winner.
After cashing in five consecutive games, the ‘under’ has improved to 8-3 overall for UF. The Gators have seen their games average combined scores of 38.7 PPG.
This will be the 10th time Saban has faced a former assistant. He is 9-0 against those former staffers who went on to become head coaches.
Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS
December 2, 2016
ATLANTA -- For the ninth time since former commissioner Roy Kramer invented the SEC Championship Game in 1992, Florida and Alabama will collide Saturday afternoon to decide the conference champ. It will be the seventh and final time these schools will meet at the Georgia Dome.
The first two SEC Championship Games were played at Legion Field in Birmingham. The event will move to the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta next year.
If Alabama wins on Saturday, it will tie the Gators for the most wins at this event with seven. UF is making its league-record 12th appearance, while Alabama will rep the West for the 11th time.
As of late Friday afternoon, most books had Alabama (12-0 straight up, 8-4 against the spread) as a 24-point favorite with a total of 41. The Gators had 12/1 odds to win outright at most spots.
This is the 10th time a team has been a double-digit favorite at the SEC Championship Game. The underdog has posted a 4-5 spread record in those nine previous games. This line, assuming it holds, will be tied for the highest in the game’s history. Florida was a 24-point ‘chalk’ over Danny Ford’s Arkansas squad in 1995 when the Gators won 34-3. They put the game away late in the first half when Ben Hanks intercepted a pitch on an option play and ran it back 95 yards.
Nick Saban’s team completed an unbeaten regular season by winning by a double-digit margin for the 11th time this year at last week’s Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide beat Auburn by a 30-12 count as a 20-point home ‘chalk,’ while the 42 combined points fell ‘under’ the 47-point tally.
Auburn led 3-0 early and trimmed the deficit to 10-9 on Daniel Carlson’s third of four field goals from 39 yards out with 3:30 left in the first half. Alabama would score the next 17 points, however, to extend the lead to 27-9 on a 38-yard touchdown pass from Jalen Hurts to ArDarius Stewart with 5:16 left in the third. After another FG from Carlson made it a two-possession game, Adam Griffith’s 34-yard field goal with 12:46 remaining provided the last of the scoring.
Alabama’s defense limited Auburn to 182 yards of total offense, while the Tide’s offense produced 501 yards. Hurts was intercepted twice, but he also threw for 286 yards and two TDs and ran for 37 yards and one score. Stewart finished with 10 receptions for 127 yards and one TD, while Bo Scarbrough rushed for 90 yards on 17 totes.
Hurts, a true freshman, has been sensational. He has completed 65.8 percent of his passes for 2,425 yards with a 20/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Hurts is more dangerous with his legs, rushing for 840 yards and 12 TDs. Another quality trait for Hurts is his calm, especially for a freshman. The dude never gets rattled.
Damien Harris has rushed for a team-high 897 yards and two TDs while averaging 7.2 yards per carry. Joshua Jacobs, another true freshman, has run for 516 yards and three TDs with a 6.7 YPC average. Jacobs also has 12 receptions for 153 yards, while Harris has 13 grabs for 105 yards and two TDs.
Stewart has 49 receptions for 774 yards and seven TDs despite missing 2.5 games. Calvin Ridley, a true sophomore who is a future star in the NFL, has 61 catches for 691 yards and seven TDs. O.J. Howard is one of the nation’s top tight ends, bringing down 35 balls for 404 yards and two TDs.
Alabama’s most notable victories have come vs. Southern Cal (52-6 at Jerry World in Arlington), at Arkansas (49-30), at Tennessee (49-10), vs. Texas A&M (33-14) and at LSU (10-0).
Alabama’s defense certainly didn’t lose a step with former coordinator Kirby Smart leaving to become the head coach at Georgia. UGA’s former DC Jeremy Pruitt returned to Tuscaloosa to take over for Smart.
Alabama is ranked No. 1 in the nation in total defense (247.2 yards per game), No. 1 against the run and No. 1 in scoring (11.4 points per game). This unit has future NFL players galore, including senior DE Jonathan Allen, who has recorded 52 tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss, seven sacks, 13 QB hurries, two passes broken up, one blocked field goal and two TDs on fumble returns that covered 105 total yards.
Florida (8-3 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) wrapped up the SEC East by winning a 16-10 decision at LSU as a 14-point underdog two weeks ago at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge. Jim McElwain’s team clinched a date with Alabama thanks to an epic goal-line stand in the final minute.
However, UF had to hit the road again last week to face arch-rival Florida State at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee. FSU captured a 31-13 win as an 8.5-point home favorite, breaking open a tight game when Deondre Francois found Travis Rudolph for a 46-yard scoring strike on a third-and-10 play to give the Seminoles a 17-6 advantage with 5:38 left in the third quarter.
With UF’s offense going 0-for-12 on third downs, the short-handed defense eventually gassed out and gave up a 27-yard TD run to FSU’s Freddie Stevenson early in the fourth quarter. After the ‘Noles quickly forced a three and out, their punt returner fumbled on the return and UF’s Marcell Harris recovered and went 12 yards for a TD.
UF would get the ball back with a chance to get closer, but it wasn’t to be. The offense was deplorable for four quarter other than the opening drive, but McElwain went for it on fourth-and-goal at the 2-yard line and Austin Appleby threw incomplete after getting pressured early.
Appleby will be making his sixth start of the season. UF has gone 3-2 in the grad transfer from Purdue’s five starts. Appleby has completed 60.0 percent of his throws for 964 yards with a 6/2 TD-INT ratio.
If UF is going to hang around with the nation’s top-ranked team, it is going to need some explosive plays. The most capable candidate of providing those is true sophomore Antonio Callaway, who has produced 905 all-purpose yards on 72 touches. Callaway has a team-best 43 catches for 603 yards and two TDs. He is the only player in school history to score a TD in five different ways – kick return, punt return, run, pass and catch.
Florida has plenty of depth at the RB position, but Jordan Scarlett is the best of the bunch. Scarlett, a true sophomore, has rushed for 778 yards and six TDs while averaging 5.1 YPC. Lamical Perine, a true freshman, has run for 394 yards and one TD with a 4.9 YPC average. Perine also has eight catches for 129 yards and one TD.
Florida will be without at least five defensive starters in Atlanta. The latest starter to go down was junior DE Jordan Sherit, who will require knee surgery after being injured in the second half at FSU. Sherit has recorded 38 tackles, five tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks and two QB hurries. His play on Derrius Guice on fourth-and-goal on the game’s final play at LSU saved the game.
Other starters besides Sherit who are ‘out’ include senior safety Marcus Maye, junior LB Alex Anzalone, senior DE Bryan Cox and junior safety Nick Washington. LB Daniel McMillian and reserve DB Duke Dawson, who had a pick-six at Arkansas, are listed as ‘doubtful.’
On the bright side, star senior LB Jarrad Davis has practiced this week and will start after missing three consecutive. Davis is the team’s second-leading tackler, registering 56 tackles, six TFL’s, two sacks, four PBU and five QB hurries.
Florida is ranked sixth in the nation in total defense, fourth against the pass and fifth in scoring (14.6 PPG). The Gators have two of the nation’s top CBs in Teez Tabor and Quincy Wilson. Just like UF needs at least one explosive play from Callaway, it could certainly use a pick-six from either one of these players. Tabor, a true junior, has nine career interceptions and three pick-sixes.
Alabama has won five in a row in this storied rivalry, cashing tickets at a 4-1 ATS clip. The Gators’ lone cover came in backdoor fashion at last season’s game in Atlanta. UF lost a 29-15 decision but took the money as a 17-point underdog thanks to a 46-yard TD pass from Treon Harris to C.J. Worton with 5:02 remaining. The ‘over’ has hit in three straight head-to-head meetings between these schools and four of the last five. UF’s other TD in last year’s game came on an 85-yard punt return for a TD by Callaway.
Florida owns a 3-4-1 spread record with two outright wins (vs. Ole Miss last year, at LSU this season) in eight games as an underdog on McElwain’s watch. The Gators are 2-0 ATS under McElwain with one outright victory as double-digit ‘dogs.
Meanwhile, Alabama is 7-4 ATS in 11 games as a double-digit favorite this year. The only single-digit ‘chalk’ spot came in its win at LSU. The only game Alabama hasn’t won by a double-digit margin was its 48-43 triumph at Ole Miss.
The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for Alabama, going 4-1 in its last five contests. The Tide has seen its games average combined scores of 50.8 PPG. This is the lowest total ‘Bama has seen this season. The previous low was 46 in the 10-0 win at Tiger Stadium where the ‘under’ was an easy winner.
After cashing in five consecutive games, the ‘under’ has improved to 8-3 overall for UF. The Gators have seen their games average combined scores of 38.7 PPG.
This will be the 10th time Saban has faced a former assistant. He is 9-0 against those former staffers who went on to become head coaches.
Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS
