Cnotes 2014 - 2015 NFL Playoff Thread Thru the Super Bowl News, Notes,Trends, Stats & More !

[CNOTES]

AFC Championship Preview


January 16, 2015




We've seen New England and Indianapolis battle for the right to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl several times before. Something is different this time around, however.


Instead of Peyton Manning being under center for the Colts, it will be Andrew Luck making his AFC Championship Game debut. Instead of Tony Dungy on the Indy sideline, it will be Chuck Pagano squaring off against Bill Belichick in the head-coaching matchup.


While Manning is attempting to shake off yet another exit from the playoffs in the divisional round (off a bye, as a healthy home favorite), Tom Brady is fresh off guiding New England to a comeback win in an epic battle vs. Baltimore last weekend. Once again, Brady has proven to be the premier quarterback over Manning in what has been a one-sided comparison in Brady's favor throughout the careers of both great signal callers.


Not to get off on a tangent here, but can't we finally put to rest the discussion of whom has had the better career? Isn't it way past time for those that think to the contrary to acknowledge that Manning has, more than any other superstar in any sport ever, consistently played below his norm in the biggest games of his career?


There's the losing record in his postseason career. There's his 0-for-life standing against the Gators, who annually faced Manning's Tennessee team with the SEC East essentially on the line during his collegiate career from 1994-1997. Hell, even when the Colts won the Super Bowl over the Bears, Manning had a 3/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those three playoff games.


On the flip side, Brady almost always comes up huge when he's on the grandest of stages and last week was no different. New England (13-4 straight up, 12-5 against the spread) trailed for more than 51 minutes against the Ravens, twice falling behind by 14 points (14-0 and 28-14). Nevertheless, the Patriots captured a 35-31 win as seven-home favorites. Baltimore took the cash, while the 66 combined points soared 'over' the 47.5-point total.


Brady completed 33-of-50 passes for 367 yards and three touchdowns, including a 23-yard scoring strike to Brandon LaFell with 5:13 remaining to provide the game-winning points. He overtook the great Joe Montana for the most TD passes in postseason history with 46. The most pivotal play of the game might have been a different TD pass for New England, though.


On a trick play offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels had been saving all season long, the Patriots perfectly executed a double-pass when Brady threw backwards to Julian Edelman, who subsequently found Danny Amendola for 51 yards to tie the game at 28-28 with 4:20 left in the third quarter.


New England became the first team in NFL postseason history to prevail after twice trailing by double-digit margins. The Patriots also won with the lowest amount of rushing yards (14) of any team in the league's playoff annals.


Indianapolis (13-5 SU, 12-5-1 ATS) advanced to the NFL's version of the Final Four by virtue of a home win over Cincinnati (26-10) and last week's 24-13 victory at Denver as a 9.5-point underdog. In the win over the Bengals, Pagano's squad covered the spread as a 3.5-point home favorite. Luck connected on 31-of-44 throws for 376 yards and one TD without an interception.


T.Y. Hilton had six receptions for 103 yards vs. Cincinnati. 'Boom' Herron rushed for 56 yards and one TD on just 12 carries, in addition to making 10 catches for 85 yards. Donte Moncrief had three receptions for 54 yards, including a 36-yard TD grab that gave his team a two-possession lead in the third quarter.


The win in the Mile High City was nearly as decisive. After falling behind 7-0 in the first quarter, Indy took a 14-10 advantage to intermission thanks to a six-yard TD run by Herron and a three-yard TD pass from Luck to tight end Dwayne Allen.


Luck found Hakeem Nicks for a 15-yard TD pass to extend the lead to 21-10. Denver would get a long field goal to make it a one-possession game but with 4:06 remaining, Adam Vinatieri put the game away with a 30-yard field goal.


As of Friday afternoon, most books had New England favored by 6.5 points with a total of 54. The Westgate SuperBook opened the Patriots as seven-point 'chalk,' but it reduced the number to 6.5 on Tuesday. For first-half wagers, New England is listed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 27.5. Gamblers can take the Colts on the money line for a +240 payout (risk $100 to win $240).


During the regular season, Luck completed 61.7 percent of his passes for 4,761 yards with a 40/16 TD-INT ratio. Luck's favorite target is Hilton, who has 82 receptions for 1,345 yards and seven TDs (Hilton might be worth a look for a prop bet to score the first TD of the game at 9/1 odds). Veteran WR Reggie Wayne hauled in 64 catches for 779 yards and two TDs. When the Colts are in the red zone, Luck looks for TEs Allen and Coby Fleener, who had eight TD grabs apiece during the regular season.


Brady threw for 4,109 yards with a 33/9 TD-INT ratio. Gronkowski had 82 catches for 1,124 yards and 12 TDs, while Edelman brought down 92 receptions for 972 yards and four TDs.


Indy has compiled a 6-3 record both SU and ATS on the road this year, while New England is 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS at home. The Pats have been single-digit home 'chalk' six times, going 3-3 versus the number. The Colts are 2-1 ATS in three games as road underdogs.


Bill Belichick's teams have gone 20-8 SU in the postseason during his storied coaching career that includes five Super Bowl appearances and three wins to collect the Lombardi Trophy.


The 'over' is 10-7 overall for New England, 6-3 in its home games. However, the 'under' has cashed in five of the Patriots' last seven outings. The Pats have seen their games average a combined score of 48.8 points per game.


The 'over' is 10-7 overall for Indy, 6-3 in its road assignments. However, the 'under' has cashed in six consecutive games for the Colts, who have seen their games average a combined score of 51.7 PPG. They have had eight totals in the 50s that have been an overall wash (4-4).


Kickoff is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Championships


January 17, 2015




Divisional Playoffs Recap


Bettors saw a stalemate (2-2) last week in the totals market and it’s fair to say that there was something for everyone. The weekend began with a “never in doubt” winner as the Patriots outlasted the Ravens 35-31 in a shootout. In the nightcap, many expected a low-scoring game in the Seahawks-Panthers matchup, but the two teams converted some big plays and managed to do enough to cash the ‘over.’


On Sunday, the infamous “reversal” in the Cowboys-Packers game helped Green Bay advance but it also crushed ‘over’ tickets and kept ‘under’ winners alive. The last game of the weekend was probably the most bizarre as the Colts upended the Broncos 24-13 on the road. I’m not surprised by the result but seeing Denver score the least amount of points this past weekend is something nobody could’ve predicted.


Through eight playoff games this January, the ‘under’ owns a 4-3-1 record.


Championship Game History


The ‘under’ went 2-0 in the two championship games last year and is on a 6-2 (75%) run the last four seasons.


AFC CHAMPIONSHIP OVER-UNDER HISTORY (2004-2014)
Year Result Total
2013-2014 Denver 26 New England 16 57, UNDER
2012-2013 Baltimore 28 at New England 13 49.5, UNDER
2011-2012 New England 23 vs. Baltimore 20 49, UNDER
2010-2011 Pittsburgh 24 vs. N.Y. Jets 19 38, OVER
2009-2010 Indianapolis 30 vs. N.Y. Jets 17 40, OVER
2008-2009 Pittsburgh 23 vs. Baltimore 14 35, OVER
2007-2008 New England 21 vs. San Diego 12 48, UNDER
2006-2007 Indianapolis 38 vs. New England 34 47, OVER
2005-2006 Pittsburgh 34 at Denver 17 41, OVER
2004-2005 New England 41 at Pittsburgh 27 35, OVER




NFC CHAMPIONSHIP OVER-UNDER HISTORY (2004-2014)
Year Result Total
2013-2014 Seattle 23 vs. San Francisco 17 40.5, UNDER
2012-2013 San Francisco 28 at Atlanta 24 48, OVER
2011-2012 New York 20 at San Francisco 17 42, UNDER
2010-2011 Green Bay 21 at Chicago 14 42, UNDER
2009-2010 New Orleans 31 vs. Minnesota 28 54, OVER
2008-2009 Arizona 32 vs. Philadelphia 25 47, OVER
2007-2008 N.Y. Giants 23 at Green Bay 20 41, OVER
2006-2007 Chicago 34 vs. New Orleans 14 42.5, OVER
2005-2006 Seattle 34 vs. Carolina 14 43.5, OVER
2004-2005 Philadelphia 27 vs. Atlanta 10 37.5, UNDER


Seattle played in last year’s NFC Championship, and that outcome barely stayed ‘under’ the closing total of 40 ½ points. Green Bay has played in two title games over the past seven seasons and the ‘over/under’ has gone 1-1 with the Packers scoring 20 and 21 points.


New England has played in the past three AFC title games and the ‘under’ has cashed in all three games. The Colts have seen the ‘over’ go 2-0 in their last two trips to the title game, the last coming in the 2009 season when Peyton Manning was the starting quarterback.


Sunday, January 18


Last week's trip to the betting counter didn't turn out well and losing double the action on the Carolina-Seattle matchup certainly didn’t help the bankroll, which is now in the red for about a nickel ($520) after a 1-4 mark in the Divisional Playoffs. After crunching all the numbers, I feel the books put out good numbers for the title games and both totals will be very tight. My thoughts, fearless predictions and scores are listed below. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!


NFC Championship - Green Bay at Seattle


The total on this game opened at 47 and it’s dropped to 46 ½ points at the majority of betting shops as of Saturday.


In Week 1, Seattle blasted Green Bay 36-16 at home and the ‘over’ (47) cashed with a late surge (20 points) in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks ran for 207 yards while their defense held QB Aaron Rodgers to 189 passing yards.


Even though a lot has changed since the two teams met in early September, it might not make a difference when you handicap this game because the status of quarterback Aaron Rodger remains a concern. Despite dealing with a calf injury, he threw for 316 yards and three touchdowns in a 26-21 win over the Cowboys last week.


For total purposes, the Packers had nine possessions and they scored five times (3TDs, 2 FGs) while running out the clock in the last one. Can Green Bay produce that effort against a better defense, on the road and with a quarterback that isn’t 100 percent?


Seattle’s defense is ranked first in points per game (15.9) and yards allowed (272.7) but some pundits are questioning the competition. It’s a very fair point and if it should be noted that Carolina put up more total yards (362-348) and rushing yards (132-100) than the Seahawks last week. The story of the game was two key interceptions by Cam Newton and Seattle’s 7-of-13 performance on third down.


When it comes down to betting totals in the playoffs, Seattle has been a tough team to figure out. Since QB Russell Wilson and head coach Pete Carroll joined forces, the ‘over/under’ has gone 3-3 in six playoff games.


Defensively, the Seahawks have allowed 16.8 PPG during this span, which makes you believe they’re a good ‘under’ look. However, Seattle has averaged 28.6 PPG and that number includes scores from Seattle’s defense and special teams. I mention that because two of the ‘over’ winners were both helped with scores from those units, which included last week’s 31-17 win over Carolina.


Fearless Prediction: I’m coming in with the ‘under’ (46.5) in the game and ‘under’ 26.5 in Seattle’s team total as well. I was a little surprised this wasn’t the late game on Sunday and I think a lot of people are overlooking the 12:05 p.m. PT start, which I believe favors Green Bay. I can’t see the Packers wanting to speed this game up due to Rodgers calf and we all know that Seattle likes to pound the football. Rain is expected in the forecast, which could be trouble. Barring a slew of defensive touchdowns and big plays, I don’t see the Seahawks scoring more than 24 points in this game. I expect a tight competitive affair with the clock running early and often.


Seattle 24 Green Bay 20


AFC Championship - Indianapolis at New England


Oddsmakers sent out a total of 53 on this matchup and it’s as high as 54 ½ points at some shops as of Saturday. If you put a lot of stock into recent head-to-head history and you believe those trends hold true this Sunday, then you’re buying New England and the ‘over’ in this matchup.


2014 – New England 42 at Indianapolis 20 – OVER 58.5
2013 – New England 43 vs. Indianapolis 22 – OVER 51.5
2012 – New England 59 vs. Indianapolis 24 – OVER 54


Since QB Andrew Luck arrived in Indianapolis, the Patriots have dealt out some serious punishment on the youngster. He’s been picked off eight times in three games against the Patriots and can’t seem to figure out the schemes that Bill Belichick and company throw at him. Defensively, the unit has been just as worse as Luck and equally deserving of criticism.


Including the three matchups above, New England has seen the ‘over’ go 10-0 in its last 10 games against AFC South opponents. The Patriots have averaged 38 PPG during this span, which goes back to November of 2010. In case you’re wondering, New England has won all 10 of these games too.


Since Luck started in 2012 with the Colts, the team is 2-4 versus the AFC East and the ‘over’ is 4-2 in those games.


The question you have as bettors is to do you toss out the recent encounters and believe Luck and the Colts have turned the corner after last week’s win against Denver or was that largely due to Denver hiding QB Peyton Manning’s injury? Thirteen points is 13 points and on the road, that’s still a very impressive effort. Even more impressive is that Colts have held four of their last five opponents to 13 or less. Similar to Seattle, many will question the competition that Indy’s defense has faced.


I believed that New England was going to score on Baltimore last week and it did (35 points) but I was surprised to see the Ravens drop 31 on the Patriots defense, which looked sharp this season especially at home. Prior to last week’s performance, New England held opponents to 16.8 PPG in its first eight games at Foxboro.


The longest pending total streak entering this Sunday lies with the Colts, who have seen the ‘under’ go 6-0 in their last six games.


Fearless Prediction: The weather could get ugly in this game and that usually favors the offense. I do believe not having starting center Bryan Stork will affect New England, who only gained 14 yards rushing last week against the Ravens. The Patriots have proven they can run on Indy in the past but without Stork, those numbers might dip. I also have to believe that Colts head coach Chuck Pagano knows he can’t win a shootout so he’s going to bleed the clock or at least try to do so. This number seems a tad inflated to me based on past history, and I’m going against it. I’m leaning to the ‘under’ 54 in the game and the ‘under’ in the team total for both the Colts (24) and Patriots (30).


New England 27 Indianapolis 23

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Championship Sunday

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, 46.5)

Packers’ Yards after the catch vs. Seahawks’ YAC allowed

Aaron Rodgers proved that a one-legged man does have a chance in an ass-kicking contest, putting on a gutsy performance in the NFC Divisional Round. Rodgers, limited by a torn calf muscle, was stellar in the second half versus the Dallas Cowboys, but his ability to move around in the pocket and the lack of zip on his deep throws were very evident. It’s why Jordy Nelson only had 22 yards on two catches last Sunday.

Since shifting to a shotgun/pistol heavy offense, the Packers have relied a lot on yards after the catch. Defenses are guarding against the deep ball, leaving underneath routes and short passes with little resistance. Green Bay is third in the NFL in YAC, tacking on an additional 6.39 yards per reception and picking up almost 54 percent of their total receiving yards after the catch.

The Seahawks can’t help by salivate when sizing up A-Rod’s wonky leg. Seattle's rush not only can close in on passers in a heartbeat - sacking Rodgers three times as well as a forced fumble for a safety in Week 1 - but this defense allowed the second fewest yards after the catch this season. Opponents mustered just 96.3 YAC a game before the Seahawks torrid-tacklers wiped them out.

Seattle was also tops in shutting down the big play, giving up only 14 passes of 25 yards or more all season. With the Packers' long bombs all but defused, thanks to Rodgers’ calf injury, the Seahawks can focus on shutting down the short looks and jumping those passing lanes. Kam Chancellor's 90-yard interception return for six points against the Panthers last week was a perfect example of this.


Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-6.5, 54)

Colts’ revved-up run defense vs. Patriots’ o-line issues

The Patriots have run up and down the Colts in their recent meetings. New England is averaging 199.7 yards on the ground over the three games against Indianapolis with Andrew Luck and its quarterback, going back to 2012. The Pats have scored a total of 12 rushing touchdowns in that span, including a monster 246-yard, four-touchdown day on the ground in Week 11’s 42-20 thumping of the Colts on the road.

Running the ball on Indianapolis may not be as easy in the AFC Championship. A big reason has to do with the Patriots playing musical chairs on the offensive line since rookie center Bryan Stork went down with a knee injury in the second half of last week’s win against Baltimore. New England is well equipped to absorb the loss of the center – the most underrated position in football betting – sliding current right guard and former center Ryan Wendell to the middle. That shift, however, leaves the right guard position up in the air and throws a wrench in Bill Belichick’s beloved jumbo set, which has squashed the Colts in past meetings.

It’s a minor move that could have a major impact, due to the fact that New England has been able to blow up defenses with runs to the right side. According to FootballOutsiders.com, the Patriots averaged 5.71 Adjusted Line Yards when running off the right guard, which ranked second highest in the NFL. It’s a go-to side when the team desperately needs to pick up some ground gains and it might not be there Sunday.

On top of that, the Colts have put on their big boy pants when it comes to stuffing the run in recent weeks. The return of big-bodied defensive lineman Arthur Jones helps, especially drawing double teams and freeing up other tacklers. Jones missed the game against New England in November. Versus the Bengals in the Wild Card Round, the Colts stumped Cincinnati for only 110 yards. They locked down the Broncos to just 88 yards last weekend after Denver rumbled for an average of 145 yards per game in the final seven weeks of the season.

“We’re playing better run defense now than we ever have, so that’s a positive,” head coach Chuck Pagano told the media. “We’ve got to prepare the same way we prepared last week. We’ve got to do a better job because if we’re not able to stop the run, we’re not going to have a chance.”

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Conference Championships


Packers failing to cover on turf this season

If you're searching for an edge in capping the NFC Championship Game between Green Bay and Seattle, look no further than the turf of CenturyLink Field.

The Seahawks have long enjoyed home field advantage thanks to the vaunted "12th man," but it's the playing surface that could create a major cause for concern for Packers bettors. Green Bay has played five games on FieldTurf this season and have failed to cover in each of those matchups. The Packers went 9-2-1 against the spread in games played on grass this year.

Predictably, the reigning Super Bowl champions have fared much bettor on the artificial surface. The 'Hawks are 6-3-1 ATS on turf after squeaking out a cover over Carolina at home Saturday.

The Greek opened Seattle as 7-point home faves for the game with a total of 48.


Over/Under 271.5 passing yards for Aaron Rodgers

The NFC Championship Game between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks is fastly approaching and if you're looking to get in on some prop bet action, TopBet.eu has you covered.

Do you think Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers will have a big day? If so, the sportsbook is offering a prop of Over/Under 271.5 total passing yards from the California native. The first and only time these teams met this season was in Week 1 where Richard Sherman's defense stifled Rodgers, limiting him to 189 passing yards.


Patriots have been Luck's kryptonite

The general consensus around the league is that Andrew Luck is on the path to greatness as an NFL quarterback, but there's one upper echelon team he has to get past before he can achieve that: the New England Patriots.

The Stanford product has played the Patriots three times in his career and has lost by at least 21 points each time. After topping the Denver Broncos in the Divisional Round, Luck and the Colts will try and get some redemption Sunday when they face Tom Brady's crew once again in the AFC Championship Game with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

In the aforementioned three contests, Indy has been outscored 144-66. Each game has gone above the total by an average of 10 points.

The Patriots finished the season at 9-7 against the spread and an Over/Under mark of 9-7. The Colts were the second best spread play during the 2014-15 campaign with a mark of 10-5-1 ATS and a 9-7 O/U record, but head into the game going Under the total in six straight outings.

New England finds themselves as touchdown favorites for the game with the total sitting at 53.5.


Seahawks beating up on weaker QBs since Week 7

The Seattle Seahawks looked like themselves once again in the middle of the 2014-15 campaign, but one particular stat shows a major difference in their past opponents compared to the offense they'll be facing off against Sunday with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

Since Week 7, signal callers who have faced the reigning champs had a combined total quarterback rating of 53.1 - the third worst mark in the NFL in that stretch. Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is the owner of a 82.6 quarterback rating.

Rodgers himself has admitted he's far from 100 percent due to a nagging calf injury, but the California product was still able to throw for 316 yards with three touchdowns and no picks while finishing the game with a quarterback rating of 125.4.

The majority of books opened the 'Hawks as touchdown faves, but that's since been bumped up to -7.5. The total is sitting at 46.5.


Rodgers struggling on the road vs. top defenses

The Seattle Seahawks are known for their powerhouse defense and have dominated teams once again this season. According to recent trends, that could spell trouble for Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the NFC Championship Game Sunday.

Rodgers faced the top five scoring defenses on the road three times this year (Week 1 at Seattle, Week 3 at Detroit and Week 15 at Buffalo) and averaged just 179 yards, combining for his three worst quarterback ratings of the campaign. The California native threw two touchdowns and had three interceptions in those matchups.

Oddsmakers have set the Pack as +7.5 road underdogs for the game with the total sitting at 46.


Belichick bettors outmatched in playoff rematches

The New England Patriots are a stellar 19-8 in the postseason under Bill Belichick, but all eight of their losses have come against opponents they have played in the regular season.

During those eight regular season games New England was 5-3 straight-up and 4-4 against the spread, while averaging 30.5 points per game.

During the second meeting of the teams in the postseason, the Pats are 0-8 SU and ATS while averaging just 17.9 points.

That decrease in points, an average of 12.6 less points in the playoff games, has also increased unders for the Pats. In those eight regular season games, New England has a 6-2 over/under record compared to 4-4 in one-and-done scenarios.

The Indianapolis Colts, the Patriots opponents this week, lost to New England in Week 11 42-20. However, since Chuck Pagano and Andrew Luck came to Indy, the team is 12-0 SU and 10-1-1 ATS in "revenge games."

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Championship Sunday betting stats and trends

When it comes to the playoffs, the final four has a magical aura. Whether it’s March Madness, the college football playoffs or pro football, it’s what captivates fans the majority of the time.

The NFL’s version of the Final Four kicks off with Sunday’s Championship Games, where surprises aplenty have certainly been the buzzword.

That’s confirmed by the fact that underdogs have managed to pull off upsets fifteen times in 48 title games since the 1990 season, the most recent being the Baltimore Ravens’ victory over the New England Patriots at Foxboro in 2013, and the New York Giants’ win at the San Francisco 49ers in 2012, when both teams went on to capture the coveted Super Bowl.

Let’s take a quick look at what’s worked and what hasn’t in the championship games, because when it comes to handicapping games at this stage of the season, we can certainly use every edge imaginable.

Note: all results are either ATS (against the spread) or SU (straight up) and are since the 1990 season, unless noted otherwise.

Been there, done that

Three of the four head coaches own the luxury of mentoring teams in championship games – New England’s Bill Belichick, Seattle’s Pete Carroll and the Green Bay Packers Mike McCarthy.

Carroll and McCarthy rode their only title game appearances to the Super Bowl, winning and covering the spread in each of their championship games.

Belichick brings a 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS slate in championship affairs, including five straight pointspread failures in his last five games. He is also 0-5 ATS in title games after scoring 24 or more points in divisional round games.

What a rush

Despite the no-huddle, fast-break passing attacks gaining favor in the NFL these days, ask any head coach and he’ll tell you running the football is tantamount to success in the league. This is especially true during the playoffs.

It’s no coincidence that since the Giants’ 21-17 win over the Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI that 22 of the last 28 straight-up playoff winners rushed the ball for 100 or more yards in the victory.

In fact, teams who have managed to out-rush their opponent are 22-12 SU and 22-11-1 ATS in title games. The six teams who managed to rush for more than 165 yards (1997 Green Bay Packers, 1999 Denver Broncos, 2000 Tennessee Titans, 2006 Seattle Seahawks, 2007 Chicago Bears and 2011 Pittsburgh Steelers) won and covered all six contests.

While all four of this week’s combatants average more than 100 rushing yards per game on the season, only the Seahawks surrender less than 100 running yards per contest.

The Packers surrender the most yards on the ground, allowing 121.4 YPG.

It’s what’s trending

• Conference championship teams off a road win (Indianapolis) that was preceded by a home win, are 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS since 1998, including 6-0 ATS as an underdog of four or more points.

• Ten of 15 championship games with a total set at 46 or more points have played over the total.

• New England is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games versus AFC South opponents.

• Seattle is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five home games versus NFC North opponents.

• Colts QB Andrew Luck is 5-1 SU and ATS as an underdog in his NFL career versus opponents with a win percentage of more than .750.

 

[CNOTES]

Maybe this will help with your total handicapping:

Total Talk - Championships

January 17, 2015


Divisional Playoffs Recap

Bettors saw a stalemate (2-2) last week in the totals market and it’s fair to say that there was something for everyone. The weekend began with a “never in doubt” winner as the Patriots outlasted the Ravens 35-31 in a shootout. In the nightcap, many expected a low-scoring game in the Seahawks-Panthers matchup, but the two teams converted some big plays and managed to do enough to cash the ‘over.’

On Sunday, the infamous “reversal” in the Cowboys-Packers game helped Green Bay advance but it also crushed ‘over’ tickets and kept ‘under’ winners alive. The last game of the weekend was probably the most bizarre as the Colts upended the Broncos 24-13 on the road. I’m not surprised by the result but seeing Denver score the least amount of points this past weekend is something nobody could’ve predicted.

Through eight playoff games this January, the ‘under’ owns a 4-3-1 record.

Championship Game History

The ‘under’ went 2-0 in the two championship games last year and is on a 6-2 (75%) run the last four seasons.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP OVER-UNDER HISTORY (2004-2014)
Year Result Total
2013-2014 Denver 26 New England 16 57, UNDER
2012-2013 Baltimore 28 at New England 13 49.5, UNDER
2011-2012 New England 23 vs. Baltimore 20 49, UNDER
2010-2011 Pittsburgh 24 vs. N.Y. Jets 19 38, OVER
2009-2010 Indianapolis 30 vs. N.Y. Jets 17 40, OVER
2008-2009 Pittsburgh 23 vs. Baltimore 14 35, OVER
2007-2008 New England 21 vs. San Diego 12 48, UNDER
2006-2007 Indianapolis 38 vs. New England 34 47, OVER
2005-2006 Pittsburgh 34 at Denver 17 41, OVER
2004-2005 New England 41 at Pittsburgh 27 35, OVER


NFC CHAMPIONSHIP OVER-UNDER HISTORY (2004-2014)
Year Result Total
2013-2014 Seattle 23 vs. San Francisco 17 40.5, UNDER
2012-2013 San Francisco 28 at Atlanta 24 48, OVER
2011-2012 New York 20 at San Francisco 17 42, UNDER
2010-2011 Green Bay 21 at Chicago 14 42, UNDER
2009-2010 New Orleans 31 vs. Minnesota 28 54, OVER
2008-2009 Arizona 32 vs. Philadelphia 25 47, OVER
2007-2008 N.Y. Giants 23 at Green Bay 20 41, OVER
2006-2007 Chicago 34 vs. New Orleans 14 42.5, OVER
2005-2006 Seattle 34 vs. Carolina 14 43.5, OVER
2004-2005 Philadelphia 27 vs. Atlanta 10 37.5, UNDER

Seattle played in last year’s NFC Championship, and that outcome barely stayed ‘under’ the closing total of 40 ½ points. Green Bay has played in two title games over the past seven seasons and the ‘over/under’ has gone 1-1 with the Packers scoring 20 and 21 points.

New England has played in the past three AFC title games and the ‘under’ has cashed in all three games. The Colts have seen the ‘over’ go 2-0 in their last two trips to the title game, the last coming in the 2009 season when Peyton Manning was the starting quarterback.

Sunday, January 18

Last week's trip to the betting counter didn't turn out well and losing double the action on the Carolina-Seattle matchup certainly didn’t help the bankroll, which is now in the red for about a nickel ($520) after a 1-4 mark in the Divisional Playoffs. After crunching all the numbers, I feel the books put out good numbers for the title games and both totals will be very tight. My thoughts, fearless predictions and scores are listed below. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

NFC Championship - Green Bay at Seattle

The total on this game opened at 47 and it’s dropped to 46 ½ points at the majority of betting shops as of Saturday.

In Week 1, Seattle blasted Green Bay 36-16 at home and the ‘over’ (47) cashed with a late surge (20 points) in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks ran for 207 yards while their defense held QB Aaron Rodgers to 189 passing yards.

Even though a lot has changed since the two teams met in early September, it might not make a difference when you handicap this game because the status of quarterback Aaron Rodger remains a concern. Despite dealing with a calf injury, he threw for 316 yards and three touchdowns in a 26-21 win over the Cowboys last week.

For total purposes, the Packers had nine possessions and they scored five times (3TDs, 2 FGs) while running out the clock in the last one. Can Green Bay produce that effort against a better defense, on the road and with a quarterback that isn’t 100 percent?

Seattle’s defense is ranked first in points per game (15.9) and yards allowed (272.7) but some pundits are questioning the competition. It’s a very fair point and if it should be noted that Carolina put up more total yards (362-348) and rushing yards (132-100) than the Seahawks last week. The story of the game was two key interceptions by Cam Newton and Seattle’s 7-of-13 performance on third down.

When it comes down to betting totals in the playoffs, Seattle has been a tough team to figure out. Since QB Russell Wilson and head coach Pete Carroll joined forces, the ‘over/under’ has gone 3-3 in six playoff games.

Defensively, the Seahawks have allowed 16.8 PPG during this span, which makes you believe they’re a good ‘under’ look. However, Seattle has averaged 28.6 PPG and that number includes scores from Seattle’s defense and special teams. I mention that because two of the ‘over’ winners were both helped with scores from those units, which included last week’s 31-17 win over Carolina.

Fearless Prediction: I’m coming in with the ‘under’ (46.5) in the game and ‘under’ 26.5 in Seattle’s team total as well. I was a little surprised this wasn’t the late game on Sunday and I think a lot of people are overlooking the 12:05 p.m. PT start, which I believe favors Green Bay. I can’t see the Packers wanting to speed this game up due to Rodgers calf and we all know that Seattle likes to pound the football. Rain is expected in the forecast, which could be trouble. Barring a slew of defensive touchdowns and big plays, I don’t see the Seahawks scoring more than 24 points in this game. I expect a tight competitive affair with the clock running early and often.

Seattle 24 Green Bay 20

AFC Championship - Indianapolis at New England

Oddsmakers sent out a total of 53 on this matchup and it’s as high as 54 ½ points at some shops as of Saturday. If you put a lot of stock into recent head-to-head history and you believe those trends hold true this Sunday, then you’re buying New England and the ‘over’ in this matchup.

2014 – New England 42 at Indianapolis 20 – OVER 58.5
2013 – New England 43 vs. Indianapolis 22 – OVER 51.5
2012 – New England 59 vs. Indianapolis 24 – OVER 54

Since QB Andrew Luck arrived in Indianapolis, the Patriots have dealt out some serious punishment on the youngster. He’s been picked off eight times in three games against the Patriots and can’t seem to figure out the schemes that Bill Belichick and company throw at him. Defensively, the unit has been just as worse as Luck and equally deserving of criticism.

Including the three matchups above, New England has seen the ‘over’ go 10-0 in its last 10 games against AFC South opponents. The Patriots have averaged 38 PPG during this span, which goes back to November of 2010. In case you’re wondering, New England has won all 10 of these games too.

Since Luck started in 2012 with the Colts, the team is 2-4 versus the AFC East and the ‘over’ is 4-2 in those games.

The question you have as bettors is to do you toss out the recent encounters and believe Luck and the Colts have turned the corner after last week’s win against Denver or was that largely due to Denver hiding QB Peyton Manning’s injury? Thirteen points is 13 points and on the road, that’s still a very impressive effort. Even more impressive is that Colts have held four of their last five opponents to 13 or less. Similar to Seattle, many will question the competition that Indy’s defense has faced.

I believed that New England was going to score on Baltimore last week and it did (35 points) but I was surprised to see the Ravens drop 31 on the Patriots defense, which looked sharp this season especially at home. Prior to last week’s performance, New England held opponents to 16.8 PPG in its first eight games at Foxboro.

The longest pending total streak entering this Sunday lies with the Colts, who have seen the ‘under’ go 6-0 in their last six games.

Fearless Prediction: The weather could get ugly in this game and that usually favors the offense. I do believe not having starting center Bryan Stork will affect New England, who only gained 14 yards rushing last week against the Ravens. The Patriots have proven they can run on Indy in the past but without Stork, those numbers might dip. I also have to believe that Colts head coach Chuck Pagano knows he can’t win a shootout so he’s going to bleed the clock or at least try to do so. This number seems a tad inflated to me based on past history, and I’m going against it. I’m leaning to the ‘under’ 54 in the game and the ‘under’ in the team total for both the Colts (24) and Patriots (30).

New England 27 Indianapolis 23

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Conference Championships


Bettors still getting behind Seahawks

Bettors are still getting behind the Seattle Seahawks as we get closer to kickoff for the NFC Championship game.

The Seahawks have moved to 8-point favorites over the Green Bay Packers at most books and the number Seattle -8.5 can even be found at some places.

Seattle was a 4.5-point favorite in their meeting back in Week 1.


If Pats go run heavy, no one knows who’ll be running

Last year in the postseason, Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount bulldozed the Colts for 166 rushing yards and four touchdowns in a 20-plus-point win. Little more than two months ago, Patriots running back Jonas Gray gained 201 yards and four touchdowns in another 20-plus-point win over Indy.

 

[HacheMan]

Thanks & GL Cnotes

 

[CNOTES]

Super Bowl Opening Line Report: Patriots' performance forces a pick'em

Four weeks of preseason. Seventeen weeks of regular season. Three weeks of playoffs.

Now we’re down to the real meat and potatoes of the NFL season, with the final two contestants taking their rightful place in the Super Bowl, set for Feb. 1 at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. The two No. 1 seeds will square off: the defending champion Seattle Seahawks against the New England Patriots, with the game at pick ‘em in most spots, and Seattle perhaps a 1-point chalk elsewhere.

John Lester, senior lines manager at bookmaker.eu, installed the Seahawks as 1-point favorites, with the total at 48.5.

“We’ve got top-seeded teams meeting in the Super Bowl, so this line wasn’t terribly hard to set,” Lester said. “I don’t think you could argue with a pick ‘em, but we opened the defending champs as 1-point chalk, which coincidentally is the same number and side we used for last year’s Super Bowl spread.

“Of course, the Broncos quickly became favorites in that one.”

How Seattle got there this time, in Sunday’s NFC Championship Game at Century Link Field, was almost beyond belief.

Any reasonable bettor – hell, even an unreasonable one – who was told, “OK, the Seahawks will need to convert a fake field goal for a touchdown, successfully cover an onside kick, complete a Hail Mary of a 2-point conversion, and oh yeah, overcome five turnovers to win this game,” would have laughed and promptly bet the house on Green Bay.

Such a bettor would have still won against the spread, but would be as stunned as the Packers at the final score: Seattle 28, Green Bay 22, in overtime, with the Packers cashing as hefty 8.5-point road underdogs. The Seahawks scored two touchdowns in less than a minute late in the fourth quarter to erase a 19-7 deficit. After the second score, they made a ridiculous 2-point conversion to go up 22-19, but allowed the Packers to drive for a game-tying field goal to force the extra frame.

Then Seattle marched down the field on the strength of two long Russell Wilson passes, the second a 35-yard TD strike to Jermaine Kearse to end the game on the first possession of OT. It was as crazy a playoff game as there’s ever been in this league.

In complete contrast, the AFC Championship Game had all the shock value of a dead 9-volt battery on the tip of your tongue. Host New England, laying seven points at kickoff, led Indianapolis 14-0 in the first quarter, and the outcome was never in doubt as the Patriots rumbled, 45-7.

Patriots QB Tom Brady will be making his sixth Super Bowl appearance, seeking his first title since the 2004 season, as he’s come up empty on his last two trips. His team’s impressive effort against Indy brought the Super Bowl opening line down in a hurry.

Scott Kaminsky, general manager at offshore site TheGreek.com, said his shop actually offered Seattle at -3 in the Super Bowl before the Seahawks and Packers even kicked off. He took the line down during that game, put it back up around halftime of the Pats-Colts contest, and bettors hammered New England from that point forward.

“It’s been all New England money, and it’s down to a pick ‘em,” Kaminsky said, noting the total was holding steady at 49. “Everybody, it was like the whole world, was on the Patriots – smart players and recreational players. With every touchdown, a little more money came in. It was just like a snowball effect. So now we’ll start from pick ‘em and see what happens.”

Lester said he likes where things are lining up early, as it should lead to plenty of wagers on both sides by Super Bowl Sunday.

“I expect we’ll have a lot of different opinions on this game, which should equate to great two-way action,” Lester said. “I don’t foresee this line fluctuating much at all.”

 

[CNOTES]

SBXLIX Opening Numbers


January 18, 2015




Super Bowl XLIX
University of Phoenix Stadium
Glendale, Arizona
February 1, 6:30 p.m. ET


New England Patriots (14-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks (14-4)


Line Moves


Las Vegas Line Moves: The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened the Seahawks as 2 ½-point favorites over the Patriots. The line never went to 3 at the Westgate and quickly went down to pick ‘em. A total of 48 ½ was sent out at the SuperBook and its holding steady.


Follow Adjustments


Offshore Line Moves: The Seahawks opened as two-point favorites at one major offshore sportsbook, Pinnacle. The early action came in early on Seattle and the books quickly pushed the Seahawks to -3. However, as New England continued its domination of Indianapolis, the line went down to pick ‘em. The total at Pinnacle opened at 48 ½ and was bet up to 49 ½. It’s still hovering in that neighborhood.


Follow Adjustments


Path to the Super Bowl


-- Patriots beat the Ravens, 35-31 as seven-point favorites in the Divisional Playoffs
-- Patriots knocked out the Colts, 45-7 as seven-point favorites in the Conference Championship


-- Seahawks dropped the Panthers, 31-14 as 13 ½-point favorites in the Divisional Playoffs
-- Seahawks rallied past the Packers, 28-22 as 8 ½-point favorites in the Conference Championship

Super Bowl History


New England has appeared in seven Super Bowls and have gone 3-4 straight up and 3-3-1 against the spread. All three of the victories by the Patriots were by three points. The ‘under’ is 4-3.

PATRIOTS SUPER BOWL HISTORY
Super Bowl Matchup Line (Total) Score ATS Result
XLVI Giants vs. Patriots Patriots -2.5 (53) Giants 21 Patriots 17 Underdog-Under
XLII Giants vs. Patriots Patriots -12 (55) Giants 17 Patriots 14 Underdog-Under
XXIX Patriots vs. Eagles Patriots -7 (46.5) Patriots 24 Eagles 21 Underdog-Under
XXXVIII Patriots vs. Panthers Patriots -7 (37.5) Patriots 32 Panthers 29 Underdog-Over
XXXVI Patriots vs. St. Louis Rams -14 (53) Patriots 20 Rams 17 Underdog-Under
XXXI Packers vs. Patriots Packers -14 (49) Packers 35 Patriots 21 Push-Over
XX Bears vs. Patriots Bears -10 (37.5) Bears 46 Patriots 10 Favorite-Over


Seattle has played in two Super Bowls, going 1-1 both SU and ATS. The ‘over/under’ is 1-1.


SEATTLE SUPER BOWL HISTORY
Super Bowl Matchup Line (Total) Score ATS Result
XLVIII Seahawks vs. Broncos Broncos -2.5 (47.5) Seattle 43 Denver 8 Underdog-Over
XL Steelersvs. Seahawks Steelers -4 (47) Steelers 21 Seahawks 10 Favorite-Under


Head-to-Head History (2008-2014)


2012 - Seattle (+4) 24 vs. New England 23 - OVER 42.5
2008 - New England (-7.5) 24 at Seattle 21 - OVER 43


ATS Records


New England: 10-8
Seattle: 11-7


On the Road


New England: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS
Seattle: 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS


Total (O/U) Records


New England: 11-7
Seattle: 10-8


Recent Super Bowl Trends


History


-- Underdogs have covered six of the past seven Super Bowls, including outright victories the last three seasons by the Seahawks, Ravens and Giants.


-- Since 2002, underdogs have compiled a 10-3 record against the spread.


-- The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in the last four Super Bowls.


-- This will be the 3rd Super Bowl played in Arizona.
XLII - N.Y. Giants 17 (+13.5) New England 14
XXX – Dallas 27 (-13.5) Pittsburgh 17

 

[CNOTES]

Double trouble: Seahawks to face Pats


January 19, 2015


Tom Brady against ol' pal Richard Sherman and the rest of the best defense in the NFL.


Russell Wilson against Darrelle Revis, former teammate Brandon Browner and whatever schemes Bill Belichick dreams up.


Marshawn Lynch and LeGarrette Blount and their tough-to-tackle running styles.


The occasional well-designed - and well-executed - trick play.


There is a lot to look forward to when Wilson's Seattle Seahawks, the defending champions, take on Brady's New England Patriots, the dominant franchise of the 2000s, in the Super Bowl at Glendale, Arizona, on Feb. 1. Seattle can become the first team to win consecutive NFL championships since Brady, Belichick and Co. did it a decade ago.


In nearly a half-century of Super Bowls - this will be the 49th - there's never been this long a stretch without a repeat champion.


On Super Sunday last year, the Seahawks beat Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos 43-8.


After Seattle (14-4) and New England (14-4) won their conference title games at home Sunday, some Las Vegas sports books had the Seahawks - heading to the franchise's third Super Bowl - as 1-point favorites, while others made the game a pick 'em.


New England reached its eighth Super Bowl, equaling the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers for most in league history. It's the sixth time in the past 14 years the Patriots have made it this far; they won trophies after the 2001, 2003 and 2004 seasons.


But they lost in their past two Super Bowl appearances, after the 2007 and 2011 seasons, both times against Eli Manning and the New York Giants.


''It's hard to compare, year to year. I think every situation's different,'' the 37-year-old Brady said. ''We've had a lot of good teams in the past. This one is going to have to win a very important game to kind of leave our legacy.''


Here are some things to know about the Super Bowl:


YOU MAD BRO?: The last time these two teams met was in October 2012, when Wilson was a rookie who threw for the go-ahead touchdown with less than 90 seconds left, Sherman was not yet as highly regarded for his cornerback play - or as widely known for his confidence - but intercepted Brady, and Seattle won 24-23. That game was best known for what happened afterward: Sherman's taunting tweet aimed at Brady. Something else to think about: Will Sherman's injured left elbow be OK in two weeks?


SLOW STARTS, FAST FINISHES: Neither of these teams looked all that good early in the season. The Seahawks started 3-3, making preseason talk of a dynasty seem silly; the Patriots began 2-2, and folks were saying Brady was washed up after a 41-14 loss at Kansas City on Sept. 29. So much for any of that. Seattle is now on an eight-game winning streak, including Sunday's stirring 28-22 overtime victory over Green Bay for the NFC championship after trailing 16-0. New England, meanwhile, won 10 of 11 games until dropping its meaningless regular-season finale. ''You don't want to judge your team after three or four games into the season,'' Brady said after beating Indianapolis 45-7 for the AFC title, ''and it's important not to ride the roller coaster.''


THE QBS: Will Brady win his fourth Lombardi Trophy? Will Wilson win his second? Brady owns all sorts of postseason QB records, including 49 touchdown passes and six trips to the Super Bowl. Wilson, meanwhile, is 10-0 for his career in games against quarterbacks who own at least one ring - but only because he overcame four interceptions and a halftime quarterback rating of zero to rally Seattle in the closing minutes against Aaron Rodgers on Sunday. ''I just continue to believe in our guys,'' said Wilson, who wept after beating Green Bay.


THE COACHES: New England's Belichick owns a record 21 postseason wins. Seattle's Pete Carroll preceded Belichick as New England's coach, then was a national title-winning college coach at Southern California, before returning to the pros. Both come from defensive backgrounds. Neither is afraid to call a trick play. Punter Jon Ryan's touchdown pass on a fake field goal for Seattle's first points Sunday. One of Brady's three TD tosses against the Colts went to left tackle Nate Solder. A week earlier, receiver Julian Edelman threw a 51-yard pass.


LYNCH'S SILENT TREATMENT: Lynch, who ran for 157 yards against the Packers, has been docked $100,000 by the NFL for violating the league's media policy, making a habit of either ignoring reporters entirely or offering one-word answers. Will he show at the annual circus that is Super Bowl media day?

 

[CNOTES]

Super Bowl History

The Super Bowl is the championship for the National Football League (NFL), which is America’s superior football league. The game pits the winner of two conferences, the National Football Conference (NFC) against the American Football Conference (AFC) in the finale. This is an annual event that started in 1967 and is usually played on the first Sunday in February.


The NFC owns a 26-22 edge over the AFC in the first 48 Super Bowl matchups. The Pittsburgh Steelers have the most Super Bowl wins at six, while the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers both have five.


The Super Bowl is the most gambled-on sporting event in the United States. Favorites have gone 33-15 straight up and 26-18-2 against the spread in the Super Bowl. The ‘over/under’ has gone 24-23. The biggest upset came in Super Bowl III (1969) when the New York Jets beat the Baltimore Colts 16-7 as 18-point underdogs.


The point-spread rarely comes into play with the Super Bowl, meaning you just have to pick the winner of the game. There have only been six instances where the favorite won the game straight up but failed to cover the number. Those outcomes occurred in 2009, 2005, 2004, 1996, 1989 and 1976.


Oddsmakers were on the money with their numbers in two Super Bowls, which produced pushes or ties. Those matchups took place in 1997 and 2000.


The most infamous pro football finale for oddsmakers was Super Bowl XIII. The 13th installment saw the Steelers open as 4 ½-point favorites over the Cowboys and the number dropped to 3 ½-points with early action on the Cowboys. Even though Dallas lost the game 35-31 to Pittsburgh, early bettors cashed with the 4 ½-points and Steelers backers won on the closing line. To this day, SBXIII is considered “Black Sunday” for the sportsbooks.


SUPER BOWL (1967-2014)


Super Bowl Year Location Matchup Line (Total) Score ATS Result
XLVIII 2014 East Rutherford, NJ Seattle vs. Denver Denver -2.5 (47.5) Seattle 43 Denver 8 Underdog-Over
XLVII 2013 New Orleans, LA San Francisco vs. Baltimore San Francisco -4.5 (48) Baltimore 34 San Francisco 31 Underdog-Over
XLVI 2012 Indianapolis, IN N.Y. Giants vs. New England New England -2.5 (53) N.Y. Giants 21 New England 17 Underdog-Under
XLV 2011 Arlington, TX Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh Green Bay -3 (45) Green Bay 31 Pittsburgh 25 Favorite-Over
XLIV 2010 Miami, FL New Orleans vs. Indianapolis Indianapolis -5 (57) New Orleans 31 Indianapolis 17 Underdog-Under
XLIII 2009 Tampa, FL Pittsburgh vs. Arizona Pittsburgh -7 (46) Pittsburgh 27 Arizona 23 Underdog-Over
XLII 2008 Glendale, AZ N.Y. Giants vs. New England New England -12 (55) N.Y. Giants 17 New England 14 Underdog-Under
XLI 2007 Miami, FL Indianapolis vs. Chicago Indianapolis -7 (47) Indianapolis 29 Chicago 17 Favorite-Under
XL 2006 Detroit, MI Pittsburgh vs. Seattle Pittsburgh -4 (47) Pittsburgh 21 Seattle 10 Favorite-Under
XXIX 2005 Jacksonville, FL New England vs. Philadelphia New England -7 (46.5) New England 24 Philadelphia 21 Underdog-Under
XXXVIII 2004 Houston, TX New England vs. Carolina New England -7 (37.5) New England 32 Carolina 29 Underdog-Over
XXXVII 2003 San Diego, CA Tampa Bay vs. Oakland Oakland -4 (44) Tampa Bay 48 Oakland 21 Underdog-Over
XXXVI 2002 New Orleans, LA New England vs. St. Louis St. Louis -14 (53) New England 20 St. Louis 17 Underdog-Under
XXXV 2001 Tampa, FL Baltimore vs. N.Y. Giants Baltimore -3 (33) Baltimore 34 N.Y. Giants 7 Favorite-Over
XXXIV 2000 Atlanta, GA St. Louis vs. Tennessee St. Louis -7 (45) St. Louis 23 Tennessee 16 Push-Under
XXXIII 1999 Miami, FL Denver vs. Atlanta Denver -7.5 (52.5) Denver 34 Atlanta 19 Favorite-Over
XXXII 1998 San Diego, CA Denver vs. Green Bay Green Bay -11 (49) Denver 31 Green Bay 24 Underdog-Over
XXXI 1997 New Orleans, LA Green Bay vs. New England Green Bay -14 (49) Green Bay 35 New England 21 Push-Over
XXX 1996 Tempe, AZ Dallas vs. Pittsburgh Dallas -13.5 (51) Dallas 27 Pittsburgh 17 Underdog-Under
XXIX 1995 Miami, FL San Francisco vs. San Diego San Francisco -18.5 San Francisco 49 San Diego 26 Favorite-Over
XXVIII 1994 Atlanta, GA Dallas vs. Buffalo Dallas -10.5 (50.5) Dallas 30 Buffalo 13 Favorite-Under
XXVII 1993 Pasadena, CA Dallas vs. Buffalo Dallas -6.5 (44.5) Dallas 52 Buffalo 17 Favorite-Over
XXVI 1992 Minneapolis, MN Washington vs. Buffalo Washington -7 (49) Washington 37 Buffalo 24 Favorite-Over
XXV 1991 Tampa, FL N.Y. Giants vs. Buffalo Buffalo -7 (40.5) N.Y. Giants 20 Buffalo 19 Underdog-Under
XXIV 1990 New Orleans, LA San Francisco vs. Denver San Francisco -12 (48) San Francisco 55 Denver 10 Favorite-Over
XXIII 1989 Miami, FL San Francisco vs. Cincinnati San Francisco -7 (48) San Francisco 20 Cincinnati 16 Underdog-Under
XXII 1988 San Diego, CA Washington vs. Denver Denver -3 (47) Washington 42 Denver 10 Underdog-Over
XXI 1987 Pasadena, CA N.Y. Giants vs. Denver N.Y. Giants -9.5 (40) N.Y. Giants 39 Denver 20 Favorite-Over
XX 1986 New Orleans, LA Chicago vs. New England Chicago -10 (37.5) Chicago 46 New England 10 Favorite-Over
XIX 1985 Stanford, CA San Francisco vs. Miami San Francisco -3.5 San Francisco 38 Miami 16 Favortie-Over
XVIII 1984 Tampa, FL L.A. Raiders vs. Washington Washington -3 (48) L.A. 38 Washington 9 Favorite-Under
XVII 1983 Pasadena, CA Washington vs. Miami Miami -3 (36.5) Washington 27 Miami 17 Underdog-Over
XVI 1982 Pontiac, MI San Francisco vs. Cincinnati San Francisco -1 (48) San Francisco 26 Cincinnati 21 Favorite-Under
XV 1981 New Orleans, LA Oakland vs. Philadelphia Philadelphia -3 (37.5) Oakland 27 Philadelphia 10 Underdog-Under
XIV 1980 Pasadena, CA Pittsburgh vs. L.A. Rams Pittsburgh -10.5 (36) Pittsburgh 31 L.A. Rams 19 Favorite-Over
XIII 1979 Miami, FL Pittsburgh vs. Dallas Pittsburgh -3.5 (37) Pittsburgh 35 Dallas 31 Favorite-Over
XII 1978 New Orleans, LA Dallas vs. Denver Dallas -6 (39) Dallas 27 Denver 10 Favorite-Under
XI 1977 Pasadena, CA Oakland vs. Minnesota Oakland -4 (38) Oakland 34 Minnesota 14 Favorite-Over
X 1976 Miami, FL Pittsburgh vs. Dallas Pittsburgh -7 (36) Pittsburgh 21 Dallas 17 Underdog-Over
IX 1975 New Orleans, LA Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota Pittsburgh -3 (33) Pittsburgh 16 Minnesota 6 Favorite-Under
VIII 1974 Houston, TX Miami vs. Minnesota Miami -6.5 (33) Miami 24 Minnesota 7 Favorite-Under
VII 1973 Los Angeles, CA Miami vs. Washington Miami -1 (33) Miami 14 Washington 7 Favorite-Under
VI 1972 New Orleans, LA Dallas vs. Miami Dallas -6 (34) Dallas 24 Miami 3 Favorite-Under
V 1971 Miami, FL Baltimore vs. Dallas Baltimore -2.5 (36) Baltimore 16 Dallas 13 Favorite-Under
IV 1970 New Orleans, LA Kansas City vs. Minnesota Minnesota -12 (39) Kansas City 23 Minnesota 7 Underdog-Under
III 1969 Miami, FL N.Y. Jets vs. Baltimore Baltimore -18 (40) N.Y. Jets 16 Baltimore 7 Underdog-Under
II 1968 Miami, FL Green Bay vs. Oakland Green Bay -13.5 (43) Green Bay 33 Oakland 14 Favorite-Over
I 1967 Los Angeles, CA Green Bay vs. Kansas City Green Bay -14 (N/A) Green Bay 35 Kansas City 10 Favorite

 

[CNOTES]

'Hawks hurt sportsbooks


January 19, 2015


For the second straight season, both top seeds from each conference advanced to the Super Bowl. However, each team took different routes to get there on Sunday, as the Patriots blew out the Colts, while the Seahawks pulled off one of the biggest shocking comebacks in recent memory by knocking off the Packers in overtime. How did the books fare on Sunday with these results?


We caught up with Johnny Avello, the executive director of Race and Sports at the Wynn Las Vegas, who had plenty of reaction to the Sunday action. “The Patriots winning definitely hurt us, as there was no major Colts’ money that came in on Saturday and Sunday. Much of the sharp money came in early on Indianapolis +7, which coincided with the injury to Patriots’ rookie center Bryan Stork.”


Obviously the biggest surprise came in Seattle on many levels. The Packers had an opportunity to win on the moneyline at +325 (Bet $100 to win $325), leading 19-7 with less than three minutes to go. The ‘under’ of 45 seemed very safe as well, even after Seattle’s touchdown to cut the deficit to 19-14. But following an improbable touchdown by the Seahawks to take a 22-19 advantage with 90 seconds left, ‘under’ bets went to die on a Mason Crosby 48-yard field goal to force overtime. Russell Wilson’s touchdown hookup with Jermaine Kearse less than four minutes into the extra session killed Green Bay moneyline bets, but the Packers still cashed as 8 ½-point underdogs.


Which was a worse beat for the sportsbooks – Seattle winning outright or the ‘over’ cashing late? Avello says neither was good for the books, but the Seahawks winning late definitely triggered moneyline bets and teasers. Two teasers that the Wynn provided that cashed were basically a pick-em on the Patriots and Seahawks at -150 odds (Bet $150 to win $100) and Packers +13 ½ and Patriots +½ at -135 odds (Bet $135 to win $100).


Looking ahead to Super Bowl XLIX in Glendale, Arizona on February 1, the Seahawks opened as 2 ½-point favorites at the Wynn. However, Avello points out that public money on the Patriots came in to move the line to New England -1. Currently, the game is listed at pick-em at many books 24 hours after the contest was posted on the board. “My power ratings have Seattle at 96 and New England at 92, as the right number was Seattle -3. We made no slight adjustments and thought Seattle 2 ½ was the right number to open at,” Avello says.


If the Packers would have won, Avello would have made New England -1 in the Super Bowl. When the NFC/AFC Super Bowl prop came out months ago, the NFC was listed as a 2 ½ to 3-point favorite. The adjustment, according to Avello, moved a half-point down to 2 ½.


Plenty of bets came in on Sunday following the release of the number for the Super Bowl, while the Wynn is offering -105 juice both ways on the game until Sunday January 25. Starting next Monday January 26 through Super Bowl Sunday, the Wynn will go back to the standard -110 juice on the contest.


This will be the third Super Bowl played in Arizona and the second at University of Phoenix Stadium. Super Bowl XXX between the Cowboys and Steelers at Sun Devil Stadium following the 1995 season saw Dallas capture its third title in four years with a 27-17 triumph, but Pittsburgh covered as 13 ½-point underdogs while the ‘under’ of 51 hit. Twelve years later in Glendale, New England’s run at a 19-0 season went up in flames in a 17-14 loss to the Giants as 12-point favorites in Super Bowl XLII, while another ‘under’ of 55 easily cashed.

 

[CNOTES]

Super Bowl line watch: What happened to the 2.5 points?

Like Yogi Berra was purported to have said: When you come to the fork in the road, take it.

Super Bowl betting season is over, and for the first time in history of SB betting lines, there is no money line. All bettors need to do is pick the winner in this one, because oddsmakers have determined that, for now anyway, no one will get or give points when the teams kick off in Arizona in about two weeks.

The big question is what happened to 2.5 points.

Before the AFC and NFC championship games were played on Sunday, there was word that a Green Bay-New England Super Bowl would be a pick ‘em, but if the matchup was Seahawks-Patriots, then Seattle would be laying out 2.5 to New England backers.

That all apparently changed on Sunday, when the Seahawks -- who had been kicking hiney and taking names down the stretch and into the playoffs – for some reason looked very beatable for more than three periods at home against the Packers.

GB’s eventual choke which opened to the door for Seattle to get to the Super Bowl a second straight season perhaps gave oddsmakers pause. And while offshores and Vegas books were still digesting the impact of Seattle’s near-death experience in the rain in the Northwest, the Patriots further muddied the waters by putting the hammer to the Colts in also-sopping Foxboro.

The Pats were no longer the Pats who rose from the ashes against the Ravens the week before when they had to perform their own Great Escape. They were the 2007 Belichick-Brady Patriots who took no prisoners.

What were oddsmakers to do? The Seattle-is-a-bit-better narrative had been crushed in a six-hour Sunday time frame, and if a 2.5-point line had been survived NE’s 45-7 win, there would have been riots in the streets of Vegas as bettors flocked to books to grab the points.

That would have mandated a quick line adjustment as books tried to limit overexposure. Best to bite the bullet quickly, so the result was a split-the-baby line in which no one gets or gives.

Somewhere Yogi is smiling.

 

[CNOTES]

Advantage - Seattle


January 28, 2015


The Seahawks are back in the Super Bowl for the second straight season, looking to become the first team to win consecutive titles since the Patriots accomplished that feat in 2004 and 2005. Seattle is riding an eight-game winning streak heading into Sunday, as Pete Carroll’s squad never had a hot stretch of that length last season (longest streak was seven consecutive victories).


Last season, the Seahawks put together a 13-3 record en route to the franchise’s first Super Bowl title, as Seattle dropped off by just one game to become the first team in 10 years (Patriots) to win back-to-back conference championships. Since a 3-3 start this season, the Seahawks have won 11 of their past 12 games, while limiting nine teams to 17 points or fewer. For the exception of a Week 11 setback at Kansas City, Seattle’s defense has yielded 32 points in its last four road victories.


Prior to the postseason, the Seahawks faced just one playoff team in the final nine weeks, drubbing the rival Cardinals twice, while holding them to nine points. The Seahawks needed to put together a massive rally to stun the Packers in the NFC Championship, but Seattle improved to 6-1 in the postseason with Russell Wilson at quarterback, including a 2-1 mark away from CenturyLink Field. Seattle won seven of eight games against teams that made the postseason, with the lone loss coming to Dallas in Week 6 as 10-point home favorites.


The Seahawks are 10-3 against AFC opponents since 2012, although two of those losses came this season on the road at Kansas City and San Diego. Seattle rallied past New England in its previous meeting in 2012 at CenturyLink Field, 24-23, scoring two touchdowns in the final 7:30 minutes to erase a 23-10 deficit. Amazingly, Wilson is 10-0 in his career against Super Bowl winning quarterbacks (2-0 vs. Peyton Manning; 3-0 vs. Aaron Rodgers; 1-0 vs. Tom Brady; 2-0 vs. Eli Manning; 2-0 vs. Drew Brees).


The Seahawks owned the best rushing attack in the NFL this season, averaging 172.6 yards per game, a 25-yard separation from the second-best team in that category (Dallas). Although Marshawn Lynch had a majority of the yards (1,306), Wilson rushed for 849 yards and eight touchdowns, which is tops in both categories among quarterbacks this season. Seattle also dominated the run game from the defensive side by ranking third in yards allowed per game on the ground at 81.5. In its final three road contests of the season, the Seahawks yielded 64 rushing yards at San Francisco, 57 at Philadelphia, and 29 at Arizona.


The Patriots struggled to limit some of the league's top running backs this season. Looking back at the 13 rushers who eclipsed 1,000 yards on the ground in 2014, New England's defense faced six of them. Twice, the Pats yielded at least 100 yards (129 to Baltimore's Justin Forsett and 114 to Chicago's Matt Forte), while Jamaal Charles of the Chiefs racked up 92 yards and a touchdown in a blowout of New England back in September. Packers' running back Eddie Lacy rushed for 98 yards in a win over the Patriots, while Miami's Lamar Miller combined to rush for 107 yards in two matchups with New England.


VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson gives his reasoning for backing the NFC champs, “The statistics pretty clearly favor the Seahawks in the Super Bowl if you just look at the numbers and ignore the legacy of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Seattle is about a half-yard per play superior to New England on both offense and defense, despite the perception that the Patriots are the better offensive team. The Seahawks gain 5.2 yards per carry on the ground while featuring an elite run defense that allows just 3.6 yards per rush, numbers that are vastly superior to what New England has posted this season. New England played a tougher schedule in terms of defensive opposition, but Seattle played a very tough slate in terms of the travel and scheduling as well as facing stronger opposition on the offensive end despite still being the league’s best defense.”


Last season, both the Seahawks and Broncos had to deal with the uncertainty of weather in New Jersey. This time around, Nelson points out the Seahawks have that advantage this week, “Seattle will also get to play on the west coast in a familiar venue while taking on a New England squad that has faced distractions all week. Last season’s Broncos team was a far more productive team than this year’s Patriots squad and they were completely shut down in the Super Bowl by Seattle. While repeat blowout performance seems unlikely, Seattle seems likely to retain the crown and push the Patriots to what will be a fifth straight ATS Super Bowl defeat for a franchise that is consistently overvalued in the postseason, now just 4-11 ATS in the last 15 playoff games.”


The Patriots have never covered in a Super Bowl as a favorite, losing outright to the Giants twice, while holding off the Panthers and Eagles. The only cover in the Super Bowl for New England in the Brady/Belichick era came in their first appearance in 2001, stunning the Rams as 14-point ‘dogs. The feather in the cap for the Seahawks is the 10-1 SU/ATS record Wilson owns in the underdog role, with the only loss coming in the final minute at Detroit in October 2012.

 

[CNOTES]

Advantage - New England


January 29, 2015


The Patriots are playing in their sixth Super Bowl in 14 years, the most appearances in NFL history in a 15-year span or less. New England finished the regular season with at least 12 wins for the fifth straight season, while capturing its 11th AFC East title in the last 12 years. Now, the Bill Belichick’s squad will try to turn around their recent misfortune in a pair of Super Bowl losses to the Giants by claiming the franchise’s fourth Super Bowl title.


New England’s offense averaged the fourth-most points per game this season at 29.3, nearly a two-point improvement from 2013. The Pats faced seven of the top 10 passing defenses in the league, as Tom Brady and the offense put up impressive numbers. For the exception of the Week 4 clunker at Kansas City in which Brady was limited to 159 yards passing, the Pro Bowler torched Buffalo (361 yards) and San Diego (317 yards) on the road, both top four passing defenses. The Seahawks rank first in the league in this category, but down the stretch they faced Drew Stanton, a down Colin Kaepernick twice, Mark Sanchez, Ryan Lindley, and Shaun Hill.


The Patriots’ offensive line gave Brady plenty of time this season, as he was sacked only 26 times, which is tied for fourth-fewest in the league. On the flip side, Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson was taken down 42 times, which ranked 20th in the NFL. Brady saw improvement in this category from 2013, when he was sacked 40 times. Seattle is known for its strong secondary, as it didn’t have as much success up front with only 37 sacks, which was 20th best in the league.


New England won six of seven games against playoff teams this season, with the lone blemish coming at Green Bay in Week 13 in a 26-21 setback. The Patriots trailed the Packers, 16-14 late in the second quarter, but Aaron Rodgers connected with Jordy Nelson on a 45-yard touchdown pass in the final seconds of the half to give Green Bay a 23-14 advantage. That loss was the only one against an NFC foe, as the Patriots won three of four times in interconference action. In the six victories over playoff competition, New England eclipsed the 34-point mark each time, including at least 42 points against three AFC squads (Indianapolis twice, Cincinnati, and Denver).


The Pats are listed as in the pointspread range from pick-em to a 3 ½-point favorite in the playoffs for only the sixth time in the Brady/Belichick era, going 2-2-1 ATS. New England opened as short underdogs when the line was released following its victory over Indianapolis in the AFC title game, as the Pats are 10-4 ATS when receiving points since 2011.


VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson gives his spin on the Seahawks playing with smoke and mirrors during their eight-game winning streak, “Seattle has not looked very impressive in two playoff wins despite the great home field edge and they faced very poor competition down the stretch in the dominant finish to the regular season. Carolina out-gained the Seahawks in the divisional round in what was a much closer game than the final four and the win over Green Bay was little to do with what Seattle did right, rather it was one of the great NFL playoff chokes in history as the Packers controlled nearly the entire game, but continually failed in several opportunities to close out the game.”


Nelson points out several things have changed with the Seahawks from last season’s Super Bowl run, “Statistically, Seattle was a slightly worse team than last season on both sides of the ball and that was a year with a much stronger NFC West division. Seattle won’t be able to afford a slow start in this matchup like they have had in the first two playoff wins and the Seahawks are unlikely to get 16 points from defense and special teams plays as they did in the Super Bowl last season as New England was one of the few teams with a better turnover margin than Seattle. Bet against the Patriots in a potentially close game at your own peril as New England is on a 20-4 ATS run in games with a spread in between -3 and +3.”


The last time the Seahawks and Patriots met up came back in 2012 at CenturyLink Field in Wilson’s rookie season. New England jumped out to a 23-10 advantage before Seattle rallied for a 24-23 victory by scoring a pair of touchdowns in the final seven minutes of regulation. The Pats outgained the Seahawks, 475-368, while New England ran 30 more plays than Seattle (85-55). A positive coming from the defensive side for the Pats was limiting Marshawn Lynch to 41 yards on 15 carries. In five career game against New England (dating back to his days with Buffalo), Lynch has averaged 53 yards a game, as his personal best is 79 yards, which came back in September 2010.


The Seahawks’ defense couldn’t contain tight ends this season, allowing 11 touchdowns to players at that position, which is the third-most given up by any team. Following a slow start, Patriots’ tight end Rob Gronkowski picked up at least 68 yards in 10 of his final 11 regular season games, while posting 108 yards in the divisional playoff win over Baltimore. Gronkowski scored 14 touchdowns this season, but he racked up exactly one touchdown in 11 games, meaning it’s a good bet he may get in the end zone on Sunday.

 

[CNOTES]

Advantage - Over


January 28, 2015




Before we start breaking down the total for Super Bowl XLIX for Sunday I wanted to recap the postseason that I would sum up as bizarre for total bettors.


Based on our closing consensus numbers, the ‘under’ has gone 5-4-1 in the first 10 games.


Looking at those results cloer, it's safe to say that there were three clear-cut winners:


Cincinnati 10 Indianapolis 26 (UNDER 47)
Baltimore 31 New England 35 (OVER 47.5)
Indianapolis 24 Denver 13 (UNDER 53.5)


When I say clear-cut, these results were looking comfortable in the fourth quarter. When you look at the other seven, you can make solid arguments that outcomes could’ve been flip-flopped.


Some bettors, who like to shop, may’ve earned wins, losses or pushes on two games:


Baltimore 30 Pittsburgh 17 (Total ranged from 45 to 47.5) Line Moves
New England 45 Indianapolis 7 (Total ranged from 51.5 to 54) Line Moves


The remaining five games could've went either way and there were a couple outcomes that were tough to watch. The worst beat went to bettors who had the ‘under’ in the NFC Championship, followed by those who had the ‘over’ in the Divisional Playoff game between the Cowboys and Packers.


As always, we apologize to those who suffered losses and congratulate the winners!


For Sunday’s finale between the Seahawks and Patriots, oddsmakers sent out a total of 49 and most betting shops are now serving 47 ½ with a few holding 48.


I believe you can make solid arguments for both the ‘over’ and the ‘under’ for SBXLIX and that’s what I’m going to do.


With assistance from VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson, we’ll touch on the ‘over’ in this piece and also provide you reasons to back the ‘under’ in another installment.


CD’s Angles


-- New England averaged 30.4 points per game, which helped the ‘over’ go 9-7 in the regular season and 1-1 in the playoffs.


-- The Patriots lost four games this season. If you toss out the 17-9 meaningless setback to Buffalo in Week 17 when they rested starters, the other three losses were:


Miami 33 vs. New England 20
Kansas City 41 vs. New England 14
Green Bay 26 vs. New England 21


-- If you delve into these road losses, you’ll see that New England gave up 20 scores (10 FGs, 10 TDs) and if their opponents were very efficient and not for nothing, the margins could’ve been much worse. It’s fair to say that the blueprint for beating the Patriots outright is to score in bunches.


-- Is Seattle’s defense that great or are they a product of playing weak quarterbacks? Cam Newton, who is average, led the Panthers to three scores against Seattle and the Divisional Playoffs, plus he was picked off in the red zone. Even though Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay didn’t rack up a ton of yards (306), the Packers did have six scores (5 FGs, 1 TD) in their loss.


-- Other legit QBs that had success against the Seahawks this season were Philip Rivers and Tony Romo. They both helped the Chargers and Cowboys post 30 points on Seattle during the regular season, more importantly each team had six scores (3 FGs, 3 TDs).


-- The key to stopping Seattle’s offense is to attack the ground game and apply pressure on QB Russell Wilson. That’s much easier said than done and you should make a note that New England’s defense has zero sacks recorded in its two playoff games.


-- In its last nine games against the AFC, Seattle has averaged 28.4 PPG, which has helped the ‘over’ go 7-2.


-- In four games against the NFC North this season, New England scored 30, 51, 34 and 21 points.


-- Bill Belichick is often praised for his defensive schemes but his club hasn’t been exactly super outside of Foxboro in the postseason. The defense has given up an average of 26 PPG in true road playoff games and 21 PPG in five Super Bowls.


-- In seven postseason games with Wilson at QB, the Seahawks have watched the ‘over’ go 4-3 which includes a run of three straight ‘over’ tickets. The team has scored 102 points during the latest streak, which was helped with 23 points coming from defense and special teams. And you could push that number to 30 if you include the fake field goal TD by Seattle against Green Bay in this year’s NFC Championship. As you all know, defensive and special team scores always help ‘over’ tickets.


-- During the aformentioned span, the Seahawks have played three games outside of the state of Washington and the ‘over’ went 2-1 in those games. Last year’s Super Bowl was one winning ticket and the other came in Wilson’s rookie season when the Seahawks came up short (30-28) to the Falcons in the Georgia Dome. The ‘Hawks have scored 24, 28 and 43 in these games.


-- In their most recent head-to-head clash, Seattle defeated New England 24-23 at home on Oct. 12, 2012 and the combined 47 points slid ‘over’ the closing total of 42 ½. I remember this game like it was yesterday and I won with the ‘over’ but was frustrated because the Patriots left so many points off the board. Fortunately I cashed due to a late heave by Wilson, but make a note that New England did move the ball all day (475 yards) on this Seattle unit and some might believe this year’s defensive group is weaker.


Expert Analysis - VI Handicapper Joe Nelson


Generally the belief is that Seattle’s defense this season has not been as strong as last season’s championship squad despite leading the league in most defensive categories again. In the regular season the Seahawks did allow 23 more points while the offense also scored 23 fewer points compared with the 2013 regular season numbers.


New England’s offense could be even stronger than the numbers suggest however as in 18 games the Patriots have faced eight top 10 defensive teams in yards-per-play. The Patriots did face below average offenses on the season playing in the AFC East, only facing five teams all season that wound up in the league’s top 10 in yards-per-play on offense as the Patriots might not be as strong as the numbers suggest on defense.


The defensive figures for Seattle may also be overrated as the Packers were the first team Seattle faced since Week 6 that finished in the top 10 of the league’s offensive yards-per-play rankings. Seattle also faced a run of marginal quarterbacks late in the season in the dominant late season run, catching back-up quarterbacks in four of the final six regular season games when the defense allowed just 39 points.


It wasn’t always pretty and Seattle certainly caught some breaks but the Seahawks have posted 59 points in two playoff wins and in half of Seattle’s games this season they have scored at least 26 points. The ‘over’ is 10-8 in Seattle games this season though this will be the highest total of the season for Seahawks game.


The ‘over’ is 10-7-1 in New England games though the ‘under’ is 5-2-1 on the closing lines in the last eight games for the Patriots. Half of the games for the Patriots have featured a total of 48 or higher this season with the ‘over’ going 5-3-1 in those games.


The only semi-recent meeting between these teams was in 2012 with Seattle winning 24-23 at home with a late comeback. The Patriots had more than 100 more yards and nine more 1st downs in the loss but settled for several field goals.


The big play potential for both teams on both sides of the ball could help to elevate the scoring and should this game get one-sided early both teams have proven capable of putting together late scoring drives.

 

[CNOTES]

Advantage - Under


January 29, 2015


In my first Total Talk piece for Super Bowl XLIX, I provided plenty of betting angles that supported the ‘over’ for the matchup between the Seahawks and Patriots.


For this installment, I’ll offer up my quick thoughts on the ‘under’ and also provide handicapping thoughts from VegasInsider.com NFL experts Paul Bovi and Joe Nelson.


Earlier this week I spoke to Johnny Avello, Executive Director of Race & Sports at the Wynn Las Vegas and asked him for his thoughts on the total for SBXLIX.


He said, “We received heavy ‘under’ action so far. I think bettors started to realize that Seattle’s defense is rated No. 1 and that usually prevails in the Super Bowl. Most believe that the Patriots will have trouble scoring with this unit. We opened 49 ½ and we’re currently at 48, which I believe is a good number.”


According to Avello, he believes that they’ll adjust accordingly when the visitors arrive this weekend. “We only booked 10 percent of our handle right now and should receive much more attention come Friday, Saturday and Sunday,” explained Avello.


In last year’s Super Bowl, most shops opened the total between the Broncos and Seahawks at 48 ½ points and it closed at 47 ½ points, which is very similar to this year’s numbers.


CD’s Angles


-- Historically, this will be the third Super Bowl played in Arizona. The ‘under’ cashed in the first two games.


Dallas 27 vs. Pittsburgh 17 (UNDER 51)
N.Y. Giants 17 vs. New England 14 (UNDER 55)


-- New England has failed to live up to its offensive expectations in each of its last two Super Bowl appearances, scoring 17 in each game.


-- Seattle has only played in two Super Bowls, allowing 21 points in SBXL (2006) to Pittsburgh and eight points to Denver last year. For those that forget, the Broncos scored on the final play of the third quarter and two of the Steelers three touchdowns came on 43 and 75-yard plays.


-- Despite leading the league in scoring, New England’s number dropped significantly on the road (25.5 PPG) compared to playing at home (34.4 PPG).


-- The Patriots have played four of their last five games at Foxboro. Prior to that run at home, New England watched the ‘under’ go 3-0 in its final three road games of the regular season.


-- Similar to New England, the Seahawks last road game came on Dec. 21. In its last three road games, Seattle allowed a combined 23 points which helped the ‘under’ produce a 2-1 mark.


-- Seattle lead the league in points allowed (16.3 PPG) and New England (17.2 PPG) was ranked sixth in defensive scoring.


-- The most impressive defensive stat I found on Seattle was related to its second-half scoring. In the last eight games, the Seahawks have allowed 23 combined points in the second half. They’ve also won all eight games (7-1 ATS) and cashed 2nd-half wagers in each contest as well.


-- As far as tempo goes, Seattle plays to an ‘under’ pace. The Seahawks are ranked second in rushing attempts (32.7) and last in passing attempts (28.1).


-- The highest total Seattle has seen all season was 48, which occurred twice and the ‘under’ cashed in both games.


Seahawks 26 vs. Broncos 20 (UNDER 48)
Seahawks 24 vs. Eagles 14 (UNDER 48)


-- Under the Brady-Belichick regime, the Patriots have seen the ‘under’ go 17-11 in the postseason. That includes a 4-1 record to the ‘under’ in five Super Bowl appearances with the pair as well.


-- Ironically, the one ‘over’ that cashed was the lowest total (38) the Patriots have seen in the finale. New England outlasted Carolina 32-29 in SBXXXVIII (2004) in a very bizarre game that had two scoreless quarters and two other quarters that saw 24 and 37 points.


Expert Analysis – VI Handicapper Paul Bovi


The oddsmakers makes a mistake on the opening number, which was as high as 49 ½ at some betting shops. The fair value for this matchup is 46 ½ and 47 points. I like to analyze head-to-head meetings, when available, and there is only one for this game. There are some key players missing for both offensive units for this game, in particular Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Danny Woodhead for New England, plus Seattle doesn’t have wide receivers Golden Tate or Sidney Rice anymore. Sticking with the last encounter between the pair, I believe Tom Brady’s numbers (395 passing yards) are a tad overstated for that game, considering 5 of his completions went for 146 yards.


Expert Analysis – VI Handicapper Joe Nelson


Last season’s Super Bowl featuring Seattle Seahawks and the Denver Broncos slipped just ‘over’ the total with 51 points scored on a total that closed at 47, falling from earlier numbers closer to 48. 16 points came outside of offensive scoring plays with the early safety and Seattle scoring on a 69-yard interception return and an 87-yard kickoff return. There were just 647 total yards in the game, or a very efficient figure of about 12.7 yards per point, which is generally around the average of the very best offensive teams in the NFL in recent seasons.


Six of the last 10 Super Bowls have played ‘under’ and the last Super Bowl in Glendale was one of the lowest scoring Super Bowls ever with the Giants beating the Patriots 17-14. The Patriots scored 468 points in the regular season for over 29 points per game but New England has posted 80 points in two playoff wins.


As good as the Patriots were on offense this season it is hard to believe that last season’s Broncos squad posted 138 more points in the regular season than New England did this season and the Broncos certainly struggled vs. Seattle in the Super Bowl last season. The Seattle offense only had to go against four top 10 yards-per-play defenses on the season as the Seahawks may have inflated offensive figures for the season, facing half of its games against the bottom 13 defenses in the league.


Seattle had just 14 points through three quarters vs. Carolina and just seven points through three quarters vs. Green Bay as the Seahawks have really struggled early in games offensively at times.


With New England featuring great play-makers in the secondary and Russell Wilson coming off a four-interception game the Seahawks could be a bit more conservative in the Super Bowl. The Patriots have also been leaning on the running game late in the season and could take the ground approach knowing the great personnel in the secondary for the Seahawks as well.

 

[CNOTES]

History ahead: first SB overtime upcoming


January 28, 2015


PHOENIX (AP) - Almost as dominant as New England's performance in the AFC championship game was the showing for Pro Picks in both conference title matches.

A sweep.


Now comes the toughest choice of all, and even the odds makers are uncertain on this one. The Seahawks (No. 1, AP Pro32) have gone from a 3-point favorite to, well, no favorite at all. The Patriots are a slight favorite, and that seems logical for the top two seeds.


The Patriots (No. 2, AP Pro32) seek their fourth championship in the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era. Seattle is after a second straight crown, the first team to manage that in a decade. Guess who did it most recently?


Yep, New England.


Of course, the Patriots (14-4) also lost their past two trips to the big game, both to the Giants.


''We've had some pretty tough losses in past Super Bowls, but none of those matters at this point,'' quarterback Tom Brady said. ''We've got to go out there and we've got a big challenge. We've got a team that is the defending Super Bowl champs. Those guys worked hard. They've earned their spot here. They've won two great playoff games, and we have, too, so that's what makes for a great fight.''


Styles make for great fights, too, and this is a classic matchup: potent offense for the Patriots, stingy defense for Seattle (14-4).


In many of those, the defensive team winds up the winner, as happened last year when the Seahawks manhandled Peyton Manning and the Broncos. They'll need to be just as efficient this time against Brady.


''To be honest with you, we don't think about that,'' defensive end Cliff Avril said. ''We look at it as just another opponent in front of us. But ... those are two Hall of Fame quarterbacks, so obviously it does have a little bit of weight behind it.''


In 2014, Seattle got off to such a quick start - a safety on the first offensive snap for Denver - that the Super Bowl never really was close. With New England's ability to rally, including from a pair of 14-point deficits against Baltimore in the divisional round, the Seahawks recognize they can never relax.


Nor can the Patriots, knowing very well that Seattle's recent achievements make it as formidable as any opponent could be.


''I don't care about them being the top defense, that doesn't bother me,'' running back LeGarrette Blount said. ''They were good enough to get here, just like we were good enough to get here. They're not immortal. They can be beaten.''


Given recent developments, it seems much of America is rooting for New England to be beaten on Sunday, citing the deflated footballs investigation and a past history of stretching the rules (Spygate). If that is so, sorry America.


PATRIOTS, 27-24, overtime


---


2014 RECORD: Against spread: This week (2-0); Season (132-122-5). Straight up: This week (2-0); Season (176-88-1)


Best Bet: 8-12 against spread, 12-8 straight up.


Upset special: 9-9 against spread, 7-11 straight up.

 

[CNOTES]

SBXLIX-NBA Props


January 29, 2015


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has released hundreds of proposition wagers for Super Bowl XLIX between the Patriots and Seahawks for Sunday, Feb. 1, 2015.


Included in that mix are “Cross-Sport” prop wagers, which allow bettors to focus on pro football and other sports, one of them pro basketball.


Listed below are opening props from the SuperBook for selected NBA games to be played next Saturday and Sunday.


Saturday, Jan. 31
Dallas at Orlando (7:00 p.m. ET)
Toronto at Washington (7:00 p.m. ET)
Houston at Detroit (7:30 p.m.)
Cleveland at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. ET)
Oklahoma City at Memphis (8:00 p.m. ET)
Phoenix at Golden State (10:30 p.m. ET)


Sunday, Feb. 1
Miami at Boston (1:00 p.m. ET)
L.A. Lakers at New York (2:00 p.m. ET)


Be sure to check the times and rules for each prop.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------
PRO BASKETBALL CROSS-SPORT PROPS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------


WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Heat/Celtics--February 1, 2015) Prop closes at 10:10 am Pacific
HEAT POINTS -31.5 -110
ROB GRONKOWSKI (NE) RECEIVING YARDS +31.5 -110


WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Heat/Celtics--February 1, 2015) Prop closes at 10:10 am Pacific
CELTICS POINTS -15.5 -110
MARSHAWN LYNCH (SEA) RUSHING YARDS +15.5 -110


WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Heat/Celtics--February 1, 2015) Prop closes at 10:10 am Pacific
HEAT+CELTICS POINTS +11.5 -110
RUSSELL WILSON (SEA) GROSS PASSING YARDS -11.5 -110


WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Heat/Celtics--February 1, 2015) Prop closes at 10:10 am Pacific
CHRIS BOSH (MIA) POINTS +1.5 -110
TOM BRADY (NE) COMPLETIONS -1.5 -110


WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Lakers/Knicks--February 1, 2015) Prop closes at 11:10 am Pacific
JEREMY LIN (LAL) POINTS +0.5 -110
SEAHAWKS FIRST HALF POINTS -0.5 -110


WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Lakers/Knicks--February 1, 2015) Prop closes at 11:10 am Pacific
LAKERS FIRST HALF POINTS -10.5 -110
JERMAINE KEARSE (SEA) RECEIVING YARDS +10.5 -110


WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Lakers/Knicks--February 1, 2015) Prop closes at 11:10 am Pacific
KNICKS FIRST QUARTER POINTS -1.5 -110
PATRIOTS POINTS +1.5 -110


WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Lakers/Knicks--February 1, 2015) Prop closes at 11:10 am Pacific
(If no punt---all bets are refunded)
**Must be an official punt
LAKERS+KNICKS FIRST QUARTER POINTS -7.5 -110
JON RYAN (SEA) DISTANCE OF FIRST PUNT +7.5 -110


WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Mavericks/Magic--January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 4:10 pm Pacific
MONTA ELLIS POINTS (DAL) -1.5 -110
MARSHAWN LYNCH (SEA) LONGEST RUSH +1.5 -110


WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Raptors/Wizards--January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 4:10 pm Pacific
KYLE LOWRY (TOR) POINTS+ASSISTS -13.5 -110
ROBERT TURBIN (SEA) RUSHING YARDS +13.5 -110


WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Raptors/Wizards--January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 4:10 pm Pacific
JOHN WALL (WAS) POINTS -0.5 -110
RUSSELL WILSON (SEA) COMPLETIONS +0.5 -110


WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Raptors/Wizards--January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 4:10 pm Pacific
BRADLEY BEAL (WAS) POINTS +8.5 -110
PATRIOTS POINTS -8.5 -110


WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Rockets/Pistons--January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 4:40 pm Pacific
ROCKETS+PISTONS 3 POINT FG'S ATTEMPTED -24.5 -110
JERMAINE KEARSE (SEA) RECEIVING YARDS +24.5 -110


WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Rockets/Pistons--January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 4:40 pm Pacific
JAMES HARDEN (HOU) POINTS PK -110
SHANE VEREEN (NE) RECEIVING YARDS PK -110


WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Cavaliers/Wolves--January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 5:10 pm Pacific
LEBRON JAMES (CLE) POINTS -3.5 -110
TOM BRADY (NE) COMPLETIONS +3.5 -110


WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Cavaliers/Wolves--January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 5:10 pm Pacific
CAVALIERS POINTS -30.5 -110
ROB GRONKOWSKI (NE) RECEIVING YARDS +30.5 -110


WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Thunder/Grizzlies--January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 5:10 pm Pacific
KEVIN DURANT (OKC) POINTS -6.5 -110
ROB GRONKOWSKI (NE) LONGEST RECEPTION +6.5 -110


WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Thunder/Grizzlies--January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 5:10 pm Pacific
RUSSELL WESTBROOK (OKC) POINTS+ASSISTS +1.5 -110
LUKE WILLSON (SEA) RECEIVING YARDS -1.5 -110


WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Suns/Warriors--January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 7:40 pm Pacific
**(If no FG is made--all bets are refunded)
MARKIEFF+MARCUS MORRIS (PHX) POINTS +2.5 -110
SHORTEST MADE FIELD GOAL OF GAME -2.5 -110


WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Suns/Warriors--January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 7:40 pm Pacific
STEPHEN CURRY (GS) 3 POINT FG'S MADE +0.5 -130
PATRIOTS+SEAHAWKS MADE FIELD GOALS -0.5 +110