Cnotes 2014 - 2015 NFL Playoff Thread Thru the Super Bowl News, Notes,Trends, Stats & More !

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

-- NC State 87, Duke 75-- Wolfpack was 10-16 behind the arc.

-- Rutgers 67, Wisconsin 62-- Badgers led by 12 at half in game Kaminsky sat out and Jackson got hurt in. Very big win for Eddie Jordan's program.

-- Michigan State 84, Northwestern 77 OT-- Izzo's team is shaky right now.

-- Hawks 120, Wizards 89-- Atlanta is now 29-8, an obscure 29-8.

-- Tony Romo apparently tore ligaments in the ring finger on his passing hand in the Cowboys' loss in Green Bay.

-- Opening lines for next week's football:
Seattle -7.5 (46.5) over the Packers.....New England -7 (54) over the Colts.

**********

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend........

13) So who was it that pushed 77-year old defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau out the door? Coach Tomlin? Owner Art Rooney? When a guy in his position says "I am not retiring" that means he got fired. Tough thing, firing a legend.

12) Kentucky 70, Texas A&M 64, 2OT-- Aggies were only 16-30 in foul line as Wildcats dodged another bullet in SEC play. They're very good, but don't tell me this Kentucky team is an all-time great team just yet.

11) Miami OH 82, Eastern Michigan 81 OT-- Ben Roethlisberger's alma mater was down 25 in first half, rallied to win.

10) North Carolina 72, Louisville 71-- UNC gets 8th-least % of points of anyone in country from beyond arc, where they shoot 31%; this was second Tar Heel game in row that was decided by exactly one point.

9) Seton Hall 68, Creighton 67 OT-- Sterling Gibbs hit a hard 3-pointer with 0:02.1 left to keep Bluejays (0-4) winless in Big East.

8) If you care about such things, home underdogs are now 1-9-1 vs spread in WCC conference games this season.

7) Super Bowl is in Phoenix this year, same week as Phoenix Open golf tournament, where Eldrick Woods will play for only the fourth time. Coincidence?.Nah, some of his sponsors probably want to watch him play, so he plays.

6) Roger Goodell and his wife sat outside in the cold in Foxboro last night; he runs the damn league but he doesn't sit in a luxury box? Mrs Goodell couldn't have been happy with this-- who wants to get sick when you don't have to?

5) At this point, Knicks might lose to the Washington Generals; they lost by 28 at home to Charlotte and they won the fourth quarter by 17-- you do the math.

4) New Orleans traded Austin Rivers to the Celtics in Jeff Green trade; rumor has it that Boston is going to ship him to the Clippers soon, where he will play for his dad.

3) ESPN's Jay Bilas/Dan Dakich are Robert M Knight henchmen, so they spend way too much airtime bitching about officials. Analyze the game, you're not paid to be the supervisor of officials. ESPN's college hoop analysts are a surprisingly weak lot. .

2) If they reduced the amount of timeouts each team got in TV games from five to three, it would be fine with me. In a college hoop game, there are eight scripted TV timeouts that have to happen; teams don't need five other timeouts, its too much. Let the kids play, the game would have better flow, better action. .

1) A's traded for Ben Zobrist/Yunel Escobar Saturday; counting DH, they've changed seven of nine position players from LY's team. One evaluator summed up the new A's in this way: "Younger, cheaper and deeper" Sounds like the A's.

 

[CNOTES]

AS OF 4PM PACIFIC






NCAAF Consensus Picks


January 12, 2015 »




Sides (ATS)


Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds


8:30 PM Ohio State +6 890 44.48% Oregon -6 1111 55.52% View View




Totals (Over/Under)


Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds


8:30 PM Ohio State 72.5 901 56.38% Oregon 72.5 697 43.62% View View

 

[CNOTES]

Championship Game Notes


January 11, 2015


Packers at Seahawks – 3:00 PM EST


Seattle opens as a 7 ½-point home favorite with a total of 46 ½ at Westgate Las Vegas.


Overall Records:


GB: 13-4 SU, 9-7-1 ATS
SEA: 13-4 SU, 10-6-1 ATS


How they got here:


The Packers rallied past the Cowboys on Sunday, 26-21, erasing a 21-13 second half deficit. Aaron Rodgers overcame a lingering calf injury to throw three touchdown passes, including the go-ahead score to Richard Rodgers in the fourth quarter. Green Bay failed to cover as 5 ½-point favorites, but the Packers closed out their home slate at 9-0.


The Seahawks took care of the Panthers, 31-17 to cash as 13 ½-point favorites. Russell Wilson led Seattle to its fourth straight playoff victory with three touchdowns, while Kam Chancellor’s 90-yard interception return for a score stymied a late Carolina drive to get the game within seven. Seattle has won seven straight games, while limiting its last five opponents at home to less than 17 points.


Previous meeting:


Seattle kicked off the season with a 36-16 rout of Green Bay at CenturyLink Field back in Week 1. The Seahawks easily covered as 4 ½-point favorites, while rushing for 207 yards in the blowout. Marshawn Lynch found the end zone twice, while Seattle’s defense limited Rodgers to 189 yards passing. The Packers have won each of the past two postseason matchups, including a 42-20 triumph at Lambeau Field in 2007.


Colts at Patriots – 6:40 PM EST


New England opens as a 7 ½-point home favorite, but has dropped to 7 at Westgate Las Vegas. The total opens at 54 ½.


Overall Records:


IND: 13-5 SU, 12-5-1 ATS
NE: 13-4 SU, 9-8 ATS


How they got here:


The Colts pulled off a pair of impressive victories over the Bengals and Broncos in back-to-back weeks to advance to their first AFC Championship since 2009. Indianapolis erased an early 7-0 deficit to dominate Denver in the divisional playoff round, 24-13 to easily cash as 9 ½-point road underdogs. Andrew Luck picked up his third career playoff victory and his first away from Lucas Oil Stadium.


The Patriots pulled off a pair of rallies against the feisty Ravens, digging out of 14-0 and 28-14 holes to shock Baltimore, 35-31 to advance its fourth consecutive conference title game. New England couldn’t manage to cover as seven-point favorites, but the Pats overcame just 14 yards rushing as Tom Brady threw for 367 yards and three touchdowns.


Previous meeting:


New England ripped apart Indianapolis in Week 11 with a 42-20 wipeout of the Colts as three-point road underdogs. Former Notre Dame standout Jonas Gray ran all over the Colts’ defense for 201 yards and four touchdowns, while Indianapolis rushed for just 19 yards on 16 carries. The Colts and Patriots are meeting in the postseason for the fifth time since 2003, as New England has won three of the past four matchups.

 

[CNOTES]

Packers to get head start out West


January 12, 2015


GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) - The Packers will get a head start out West to prepare for the NFC title game against the Seattle Seahawks.


Green Bay plans to leave for Seattle on Friday, one day ahead of when the team would usually fly out for Sunday road games.


This is no ordinary road game. The winner goes to the Super Bowl.


Coach Mike McCarthy is hoping this trip to CenturyLink Field has a different outcome than the previous one in September - a 36-16 loss in the league opener to the Seahawks.


''You learn from past experiences,'' McCarthy said Monday. ''We evaluate every schedule, every practice. We're always looking to try to get better.''


Just like quarterback Aaron Rodgers, whom McCarthy said felt well a day after the 26-21 win over Dallas that clinched the Packers' first trip to the NFC championship game since their most recent run to the Super Bowl title after the 2010 season.


Dealing with a lingering left calf injury, Rodgers once again proved Sunday that he's better than most healthy quarterbacks in the league even if he's less than 100 percent. He finished 24 of 35 for 316 yards and three touchdowns.


Rodgers said the calf felt better as the game progressed. A practice plan for Rodgers will be determined on Wednesday.


''I think he feels better at this time this week than he did last week,'' McCarthy said.


For as good as Rodgers was against the Cowboys with limited mobility, the Packers may need him to be even better against Seattle's rugged defense on the road.


Rodgers was 23 of 33 for 189 yards with a touchdown and interception in the opener against Seattle. Back then, the Packers offense was still trying to find its rhythm. Eddie Lacy got knocked out of that game with a concussion.


Things have changed dramatically. The offensive line has played well all season. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are one of the top receiving tandems in the league, and Lacy has gotten stronger in December and January.


And now, rookies Davante Adams and Richard Rodgers have proven they can produce in the postseason after good games against Dallas. Fullback John Kuhn and tight end Andrew Quarless have also emerged late in the season to help diversify the attack.


''You know, this team from Week 1 has grown a lot, so we're definitely looking forward to it,'' said Quarless, who had four catches for 31 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys. ''Just to see the growth and resilience of this team throughout the postseason is a positive.''


The tweaks that McCarthy made to the training schedule and conditioning program have also paid off. Not counting Rodgers' lingering injury, the Packers for the most part haven't been hit by long-term or season-ending injuries to key players that seemed to slow them down in recent years.


The move to fly out on Friday fits the pattern of McCarthy trying new things to give his team an edge. The practice schedule will be normal otherwise, given that Friday is usually a day off the field. The team will then run through a practice on Saturday in Washington.


''Just the fact that we're trying to get better at everything we're doing,'' McCarthy said.

 

[CNOTES]

Championship Preview


January 14, 2015




Seattle (-7.5, 47) vs. Green Bay – Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET


The Seahawks and Packers meet in Seattle on Sunday afternoon for the NFC Championship. It’s a rematch from the very first game of the NFL season when the Seahawks easily dispatched GB at home, 36-16. Seattle’s defense dominated that matchup as QB Aaron Rodgers completed 23-of-33 passes for a measly 189 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT while RB Eddie Lacy rushed for just 34 yards on 12 carries. For Seattle, Russell Wilson had a workmanlike performance on offense (19-of-28 for 191 yards and 2 scores) while RB Marshawn Lynch did the heavy lifting out of the backfield (20 carries, 110 yards, 2 TD).


It’s been 19 weeks since that matchup and both teams are undoubtedly different from that September night, but the Seahawks will again play at home and will be the odds-on favorite to win this one. Green Bay’s main concern heading into this one is how Rodgers’ injured calf holds up against arguably the best defense in the NFL. Rodgers was noticeably hobbled in last week’s game against the Cowboys, especially in the 1st half when he completed just 9-of-15 passes for 90 yards and 1 TD. He was able to step up his play in the 2nd half (15-of-20 for 226 yards and 2 TD), but his mobility is still a major question mark heading forward.


Seattle is No. 1 against the pass (186 pass YPG) and the 17 pass TD allowed is good for No. 2 in the NFL. While the sack totals aren’t that high (37 sacks ranked 20th in the NFL), Seattle does a great job of pressuring the opposing QB and forcing mistakes (+9 in TO differential). While Seattle’s defense gets most of the publicity, it’s QB Russell Wilson that continues to impress in big games. In six career playoff games, Russell Wilson is 5-1 SU with 9 pass TD to just 1 INT. Last week with the Panthers limiting Marshawn Lynch and this Seahawks rushing attack, Wilson stepped up with 268 pass yards and 3 TD. He rarely makes mistakes and is always a threat to run it (849 rush yards in the regular season).


Green Bay’s defense isn’t statistically great, but isn’t nearly as bad as some of the talking heads make it out to be. Eight of the last nine opponents have been held to 21 points or less and the Packers finished an NFL-best +14 in turnover ratio. Seattle is 7-0 SU & 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games. The Seahawks won those seven games by 15.5 PPG, each coming by 10+ points. The defense has held those last seven opponents to just 57 total points (8.1 PPG), including four home opponents to 33 total points. Overall they are 8-1 SU and 6-2-1 ATS at CenturyLink Field. They’ve beaten the likes of Green Bay by 20 points, Arizona by 16, San Francisco by 10, St. Louis by 14, and Carolina by 14 at home.


The Packers were 4-4 on the road this year and scored 18.1 fewer PPG on the road than at home with Rodgers markedly better at home (28 TD, 0 INT in nine games) than on the road (13 TD, 5 INT in eight games). Green Bay has gone 8-1 in last nine games. Offensively the Packers have averaged 32.4 PPG over that span behind a masterful Aaron Rodgers (22 TD, 2 INT), but it’s been an impactful Eddie Lacy that has been the main difference maker as the reliable 2nd option for this Packers offense. Lacy has 812 rush yards on 5.1 YPC with 9 total TD over the last nine games. He likely won’t have easy sledding against this Seattle defense that ranked 3rd in the NFL against the run, surrendering just 81.5 rush YPG and 8 rush TD. Seattle is looking to make it to the Super Bowl for the second consecutive year while the Pack are looking for their first trip since winning it in 2011.


New England (-7, 54) vs. Indianapolis – Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET


On the AFC side of the playoffs, it’s one side we fully expected to be here while the other is a bit of a surprise. New England was our Super Bowl longshot (at 10/1 odds) at the beginning of the season and other than an inconspicuous 2-2 start, the Pats have been everything we envisioned them to be. Their opponent here, Indianapolis, arrived maybe a bit ahead of schedule. They have a world-class quarterback in Andrew Luck but the supporting cast leaves something to be desired. Still, a lot can be said for the Colts dispatching the Broncos in Denver last week, and they’ll take aim at another Goliath here in New England as a seven-point underdog.


New England has won 11 of its last 13 games with the only real loss over that span a five-point defeat to the Packers in Green Bay (the other loss came against Buffalo in a meaningless Week 17 game with home field advantage already locked up). The Pats avoided the upset last week against Baltimore by erasing two separate 14-point deficits to win, 35-31. Tom Brady finished 33-of-50 passing for 367 yards with 3 TD and 1 INT, leading the Pats to victory as they completely abandoned the run in the 2nd half (tallied just 14 yards on 13 carries for the game). Brady will take aim at an Indianapolis pass defense that had a very successful day against Peyton Manning last week (26-of-46 for 211 yards) but has had its share of struggles over the course of the year (27 pass TD allowed).


Since losing by 22 points to New England Week 11, the Colts have reeled off seven wins in their last eight games. Five of those seven wins have come by 11 points or more, including last week’s double-digit victory at Denver. They’ve been adequate on the road this season with a 6-3 SU record. However, last week’s win in Denver was the first road win over a playoff qualifier. They had previously lost to Denver by 7, Pittsburgh by 17, and Dallas by 35. They’ll try to continue their strong road play on Sunday in a place where few opponents find success.


The Pats are 8-1 SU at home with the lone loss coming in the aforementioned meaningless Week 17 game against Buffalo. They own a +14.9 average point differential in those nine home games and that includes quality wins over Cincinnati (26 points), Denver (22 points), Detroit (25 points), Miami (28 points), and Baltimore (4 points). Overall they are 12-6-1 ATS in 19 home games since the beginning of 2013. In the first meeting this season on November 16th, New England rushed 44 times for a season-high 246 yards and 4 TD behind a huge day from Jonas Gray in the 42-20 victory.


Andrew Luck had a good game, tossing for 303 yards and 2 scores, but it wasn’t nearly enough for this offense to keep pace. It didn’t help that Indy had no help from its rushing attack, notching just 19 yards on 16 carries in that game. They haven’t been a great rushing team all season long, ranking 22nd in the NFL with just 100.8 rush YPG.


The Colts have gotten decent production in their two playoff games, however, totaling 213 rush yards on 53 carries against Cincinnati and Denver combined. That rushing attack could be the “x-factor” here. If the Colts can get a successful rushing attack going against this New England rush defense (9th-best in NFL in rush defense, surrendering just 104.3 rush YPG), they’ll be able to make it a game. New England last won a Super Bowl in 2004 but has made two trips there in 2008 and 2012 (both losses to NY Giants). Indy’s last trip to the Super Bowl was in 2010 (loss to New Orleans) and its last win was in 2007.

 

[CNOTES]

Championship Trends


January 14, 2015


When it comes to the playoffs, the ‘final four’ has a magical aura. Whether it’s March Madness, the college football playoffs or pro football, it’s what captivates fans the majority of the time.


The NFL’s version of the ‘Final Four’ kicks off with Sunday’s Championship Games where surprises aplenty have certainly been the buzzword.


That’s confirmed by the fact that underdogs have managed to pull off upsets fifteen times in 48 title games since the 1990 season, the most recent being the Baltimore Ravens’ victory over the New England Patriots at Foxboro in 2013, and the NY Giants’ win at the San Francisco 49ers in 2012, when both teams went on to capture the coveted Super Bowl.


Let’s take a quick look at what’s worked and what hasn’t in the Championship Games, because when it comes to handicapping games at this stage of the season, we can certainly use every edge imaginable.


Note: all results are either ATS (against the spread) or SU (straight up) and are since the 1990 season, unless noted otherwise.


BEEN THERE, DONE THAT


Three of the four head coaches own the luxury of mentoring teams in Championship Games – namely New England’s Bill Belichick, Seattle’s Pete Carroll and the Green Bay Packers Mike McCarthy.


Carroll and McCarthy rode their only title game appearances to the Super Bowl, winning and covering the spread in each of their championship games.


Belichick brings a 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS slate in championship affairs, including 5 straight point-spread failures in his last five games. He is also 0-5 ATS in title games after scoring 24 or more points in divisional round games.


WHAT A RUSH


Despite the no-huddle, fast-break passing attacks gaining favor in the NFL these days, ask any head coach and he’ll tell you running the football is tantamount to success in the league. This is especially true during the playoffs.


It’s no coincidence that since the Giants’ 21-17 win over the Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI that 22 of the last 28 straight-up playoff winners rushed the ball for 100 or more yards in the victory.


In fact, teams who have managed to outrush their opponent are 22-12 SU and 22-11-1 ATS in title games. The six teams who managed to rush for more than 165 yards (1997 Green Bay Packers, 1999 Denver Broncos, 2000 Tennessee Titans, 2006 Seattle Seahawks, 2007 Chicago Bears and 2011 Pittsburgh Steelers) won and covered all six contests.


While all four of this week’s combatants average more than 100 rushing yards per game on the season, only the Seahawks surrender less than 100 running yards per contest.


The Packers surrender the most yards on the ground, allowing 121.4 YPG.


IT’S WHAT’S TRENDING


-- Conference championship teams off a road win (Indianapolis) that was preceded by a home win, are 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS since 1998, including 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 4 or more points.


-- 10 of 15 championship games with a total set at 46 or more points have played over the total.


-- New England is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games versus AFC South opponents.


-- Seattle is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last 5 home games versus NFC North opponents.


-- Colts QB Andrew Luck is 5-1 SU and ATS as an underdog in his NFL career versus opponents with a win percentage of more than .750.

 

[CNOTES]

Belichick: QB Luck is like an extra WR


January 14, 2015


FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) - Bill Belichick put an extra receiver on the field to confuse the Baltimore Ravens.
Now the New England Patriots coach will find out how it feels.


Defending against Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is ''like a sixth receiver you have to cover,'' Belichick said on Tuesday, an ironic choice of words in the wake of his innovative use of an ineligible receiver in the 35-31 victory over the Ravens.


''If (Luck) extends the play, then he has the ability to create big plays. We've seen him do that multiple times throughout his career already,'' Belichick said. ''It's another guy you have to defend in the running game, the passing game in terms of his ability to scramble and make first-down yardage on possession-type downs. And he makes good decisions, so all those things are a problem.''


The Patriots advanced to their fourth consecutive conference title game on Saturday thanks in part to a series of plays in which they only sent four traditional offensive linemen onto the field. A skill player then declared himself ineligible - but too late for the Ravens to get the matchup they wanted.


Baltimore coach John Harbaugh said he just wanted the referee to give him time to make a substitution. But by the time he got that straightened out the Patriots had marched down the field.


Now New England is facing a player who redefines his position.


And it's not going to be easy, Belichick conceded.


''Look, he's passed for a lot of yards in a lot of games,'' the Patriots' coach said. ''The guy is a really good quarterback. He can do everything that a top quarterback needs to do,'' listing all of the things Luck can do with his arm, his legs and his mind.


''He's got good poise, good vision, handles the team well. He's a smart player in terms of game management and situational football,'' Belichick said. ''So I'd say all of those things are strengths. They're all assets. He does a good job of all of it. There are a lot of things about his game that are very good and hard to defend.''

 

[CNOTES]

Packers prep for Sherman and 'Hawks D


January 13, 2015


GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) - Seattle's Richard Sherman may have more to do this time against the Green Bay Packers.


The Packers didn't throw in the Pro Bowl cornerback's direction when the teams met in the season opener in September, a 36-16 win for the Seahawks.


The game plan for the rematch on Sunday in the NFC title game is still in flux. Still, the offense seems better equipped this time around to face Sherman and Seattle's swarming defense.


''I don't think anybody's intimidated. I mean he's a great player,'' tight end Andrew Quarless said this week. ''Their secondary is definitely a great secondary. You've got to give them their respect. But you know the whole `Legion of Boom' - we'll see.''


More than four months have passed since that meeting. It is plenty of time for teams to shape their identities and fix flaws.


Seattle has only improved defensively since September. But the Packers have had plenty of time, too, to get their act together.


Running back Eddie Lacy's production has increased dramatically. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are one of the top receiving tandems in the league. The offensive line is providing solid blocking.


And Aaron Rodgers has proven that he's better than most healthy quarterbacks in the league, even when slowed by a left calf injury.


''I don't think it's that much different except their guys are coming through,'' Seattle coach Pete Carroll said. ''They've grown with their season and they're at the top of their game.''


It wasn't quite that case on Sept. 4 in Seattle.


Packers coach Mike McCarthy watched video of the game on Monday morning. He liked some of what he saw. He pointed to a few pivotal plays during which the Packers could have played better.


''As far as not throwing at Richard Sherman, we have great respect for their defense, and they've earned that, and no different in Richard's individual case,'' McCarthy said. ''But we're a no-huddle offense and my thought was, and I told Jordy in the game plan, `Just line up on the left side.'''


The thinking was that Sherman would follow Nelson.


''OK. It didn't happen ... How the game sorted out and things like that, and the ball went where it went was just really how the game was played. There was never a `Don't throw right' in the game plan,'' McCarthy added. ''With that, I think we've played a lot differently since then, I think we've improved in a number of different areas.''


The Packers have succeeded in the second half of the season in part by going after an opponent's strengths.


In a 26-21 win over New England in November, Rodgers threw for 368 yards, including a 45-yard catch-and-run to Nelson. He had been covered by top cornerback Darrelle Revis at the time.


In the regular-season finale, Green Bay ran for 152 yards in a victory against Detroit, a season-high by a Lions opponent.


In the NFC divisional round win over Dallas, the Packers got three touchdown passes from Rodgers - though none went to Nelson or Cobb. Instead, rookie receiver Davante Adams, and tight ends Andrew Quarless and Richard Rodgers, another rookie, had the scores in the big spots.


All three games were played at Lambeau Field. Still, the success will help boost confidence.


''I mean the more targets A-Rod has, the more I think it opens up the offense,'' Quarless said. It's about keeping them honest, really respecting everything that we do, and respecting all the playmakers on the field.''


Adams had the biggest impact of the lesser-known Packers with seven catches for 117 yards. The production was somewhat of a surprise given Adams had a combined four catches in his previous four games combined.


As it turns out, Adams doesn't mind talking trash either, a quality that might come in handy if Sherman throws some verbal jabs.


''I like to egg it on. If you want to talk, I feel like you can use that to your advantage because guys get to talking and you make a play on them and it kind of shuts them down,'' Adams said.

 

[CNOTES]

Sharp Moves - Title Games


January 16, 2015




We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out how the odds break down in the AFC and NFC Championship Games!


All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchup index as of Friday morning.


(Rotation 301/302) – Packers (46.5) @ Seahawks (-7.5)


The line movement this week has definitively been on the Seahawks. There is clearly still some doubt as to whether QB Aaron Rodgers is really going to be ready to go against Seattle at full strength. We know that he is going to play, but he didn't look great in the pocket last week against the Dallas Cowboys, and with the way the Seattle front four puts pressure on the passer, Rodgers is going to have to prove that he can move around a little bit.


Don't think that bettors don't realize that. As a result, this spread, one which opened up at -7, has risen to -7.5 (+100), and it could go higher by the time kickoff rolls around. The total of 46.5 has stayed firm all week long.


Interestingly enough, the Seahawks are relatively sharp in this game. A high 65 percent of all bets have come in on the Packers, yet the line is moving in the opposite direction of what that movement suggests. However, it should be noted that a lot of those bets came in early in the week. Expect to see this line level out in terms of percentage of bets on both sides come Sunday.


(Rotation 303/304) – Colts (53.5) @ Patriots (-6.5)


The Patriots struggled last weekend, while the Colts really didn't have a tough time whatsoever against the Denver Broncos on the road. Bettors react to what they just saw, and not surprisingly, in spite of the fact that only 51 percent of the bets have come in on the Colts in this one, they have moved from +7 down to +6.5 and even +6 at some online sportsbooks.


That said, it's worth remembering that the three times these two teams have played against each other in the QB Andrew Luck era, the Pats have stomped the Colts by at least three touchdowns. New England doesn't have a great history in the AFC Championship Game, and last Sunday marked yet another home playoff game in which it didn't cover the spread. The opportunity is going to be there for the Colts, but it is going to take Luck figuring out how to take down yet another future Hall of Fame quarterback on the road to do so.

 

[CNOTES]

AFC Championship Preview


January 16, 2015


We've seen New England and Indianapolis battle for the right to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl several times before. Something is different this time around, however.


Instead of Peyton Manning being under center for the Colts, it will be Andrew Luck making his AFC Championship Game debut. Instead of Tony Dungy on the Indy sideline, it will be Chuck Pagano squaring off against Bill Belichick in the head-coaching matchup.


While Manning is attempting to shake off yet another exit from the playoffs in the divisional round (off a bye, as a healthy home favorite), Tom Brady is fresh off guiding New England to a comeback win in an epic battle vs. Baltimore last weekend. Once again, Brady has proven to be the premier quarterback over Manning in what has been a one-sided comparison in Brady's favor throughout the careers of both great signal callers.


Not to get off on a tangent here, but can't we finally put to rest the discussion of whom has had the better career? Isn't it way past time for those that think to the contrary to acknowledge that Manning has, more than any other superstar in any sport ever, consistently played below his norm in the biggest games of his career?


There's the losing record in his postseason career. There's his 0-for-life standing against the Gators, who annually faced Manning's Tennessee team with the SEC East essentially on the line during his collegiate career from 1994-1997. Hell, even when the Colts won the Super Bowl over the Bears, Manning had a 3/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those three playoff games.


On the flip side, Brady almost always comes up huge when he's on the grandest of stages and last week was no different. New England (13-4 straight up, 12-5 against the spread) trailed for more than 51 minutes against the Ravens, twice falling behind by 14 points (14-0 and 28-14). Nevertheless, the Patriots captured a 35-31 win as seven-home favorites. Baltimore took the cash, while the 66 combined points soared 'over' the 47.5-point total.


Brady completed 33-of-50 passes for 367 yards and three touchdowns, including a 23-yard scoring strike to Brandon LaFell with 5:13 remaining to provide the game-winning points. He overtook the great Joe Montana for the most TD passes in postseason history with 46. The most pivotal play of the game might have been a different TD pass for New England, though.


On a trick play offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels had been saving all season long, the Patriots perfectly executed a double-pass when Brady threw backwards to Julian Edelman, who subsequently found Danny Amendola for 51 yards to tie the game at 28-28 with 4:20 left in the third quarter.


New England became the first team in NFL postseason history to prevail after twice trailing by double-digit margins. The Patriots also won with the lowest amount of rushing yards (14) of any team in the league's playoff annals.


Indianapolis (13-5 SU, 12-5-1 ATS) advanced to the NFL's version of the Final Four by virtue of a home win over Cincinnati (26-10) and last week's 24-13 victory at Denver as a 9.5-point underdog. In the win over the Bengals, Pagano's squad covered the spread as a 3.5-point home favorite. Luck connected on 31-of-44 throws for 376 yards and one TD without an interception.


T.Y. Hilton had six receptions for 103 yards vs. Cincinnati. 'Boom' Herron rushed for 56 yards and one TD on just 12 carries, in addition to making 10 catches for 85 yards. Donte Moncrief had three receptions for 54 yards, including a 36-yard TD grab that gave his team a two-possession lead in the third quarter.


The win in the Mile High City was nearly as decisive. After falling behind 7-0 in the first quarter, Indy took a 14-10 advantage to intermission thanks to a six-yard TD run by Herron and a three-yard TD pass from Luck to tight end Dwayne Allen.


Luck found Hakeem Nicks for a 15-yard TD pass to extend the lead to 21-10. Denver would get a long field goal to make it a one-possession game but with 4:06 remaining, Adam Vinatieri put the game away with a 30-yard field goal.


As of Friday afternoon, most books had New England favored by 6.5 points with a total of 54. The Westgate SuperBook opened the Patriots as seven-point 'chalk,' but it reduced the number to 6.5 on Tuesday. For first-half wagers, New England is listed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 27.5. Gamblers can take the Colts on the money line for a +240 payout (risk $100 to win $240).


During the regular season, Luck completed 61.7 percent of his passes for 4,761 yards with a 40/16 TD-INT ratio. Luck's favorite target is Hilton, who has 82 receptions for 1,345 yards and seven TDs (Hilton might be worth a look for a prop bet to score the first TD of the game at 9/1 odds). Veteran WR Reggie Wayne hauled in 64 catches for 779 yards and two TDs. When the Colts are in the red zone, Luck looks for TEs Allen and Coby Fleener, who had eight TD grabs apiece during the regular season.


Brady threw for 4,109 yards with a 33/9 TD-INT ratio. Gronkowski had 82 catches for 1,124 yards and 12 TDs, while Edelman brought down 92 receptions for 972 yards and four TDs.


Indy has compiled a 6-3 record both SU and ATS on the road this year, while New England is 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS at home. The Pats have been single-digit home 'chalk' six times, going 3-3 versus the number. The Colts are 2-1 ATS in three games as road underdogs.


Bill Belichick's teams have gone 20-8 SU in the postseason during his storied coaching career that includes five Super Bowl appearances and three wins to collect the Lombardi Trophy.


The 'over' is 10-7 overall for New England, 6-3 in its home games. However, the 'under' has cashed in five of the Patriots' last seven outings. The Pats have seen their games average a combined score of 48.8 points per game.


The 'over' is 10-7 overall for Indy, 6-3 in its road assignments. However, the 'under' has cashed in six consecutive games for the Colts, who have seen their games average a combined score of 51.7 PPG. They have had eight totals in the 50s that have been an overall wash (4-4).


Kickoff is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL line watch: 12th Man may want to wait for big Cheese move

Spread to bet now

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-7)

The Colts now own two playoff wins. Shoving Cincinnati to the gutter was one thing and beating Denver was cool - even if watching Peyton Manning reminded old-timers of an ancient Willie Mays falling down while trying to chase down fly balls in his final season.

The question is are the Colts just happy to be taking an extra step or do they have more than a puncher’s chance of taking down the Belichick & Brady Wrecking Co.?

The Patriots were undefeated at home this season in games that mattered and have already put 35 points on the board against a good defensive team (Baltimore). Indianapolis and Andrew Luck are hoping that the Patriots spent a good portion of their energy in the already-epic win over the Ravens, and will come out flat.


Spread to wait on

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)

OK, the Packers are one bobbled ball away from being on the outside looking in, but they are here and get a chance to climb into the boiling cauldron in Seattle and try to beat the Seahawks.

The Cheeseheads couldn’t do it in the season opener (Seattle, 36-16), but that’s now ancient history. Green Bay has the best player in the league (Aaron Rodgers) and doesn’t figure to freak out like so many other visitors to the Pacific Northwest over the past few seasons.

Early money is coming in heavy on the Packers, with bettors figuring if the Panthers can hang with the Seahawks for a half, there’s an opening for the Packers. Heavy money in Green Bay’s direction might eventually shave off that half a point. So if your book is at 7.5, see how things stand later in the week.


Total to watch

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (53.5)

January weather in Foxboro usually ranges from very cold to very snowy, but the long-term forecast calls for game-time temperatures in the high 30s, and nothing coming out of the sky. That’s good for the dome Colts, and also good for Over bettors.

The Ravens and Patriots burned past the 47.5 number midway through the third quarter this past weekend, almost forcing books to hike the total on this one by a full touchdown. It might not be enough even at 53 points, especially given the way New England’s defense has taken a step back in the last half-dozen games.

 

[CNOTES]

Take it or leave it? Capping the NFL Championship rematches

Just like we experienced last year, this weekend’s slate of NFL Conference Championship action features two rematches from the regular season.

In 2013, Denver got its revenge against New England in the AFC Championship game while Seattle beat San Francisco for the second time in three meetings for the right to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

So the big questions on everybody’s mind as we approach kickoff is will the Packers and Colts have the last laugh or will Seattle and New England reign supreme yet again?

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, 46.5)

Last meeting (9/4/2014 in Seattle): Seahawks defeat Packers 36-16 in the NFL Thursday night opener as Seattle outgains Green Bay 398-255 behind 110 rushing yards and two touchdowns from running back Marshawn Lynch. Seattle goes on a 26-3 run at the beginning of the second quarter and lasts until 9:31 of the fourth quarter.

Why that game matters now

The most effective way to slow down soon-to-be MVP Aaron Rodgers and the NFL’s highest-scoring offense is by creating relentless pressure via the front four while dropping seven defenders into coverage.

Of course, this is easier said than done, but the New York Giants pulled it off during the Divisional Round of the 2012 playoffs at Lambeau Field and the Seahawks executed this game plan to perfection against Rodgers back in Week 1 as well as at the beginning of the 2012 regular season.

Seattle averaged 2.62 sacks and 1.75 turnovers forced per game at CenturyLink Field this season while holding Rodgers to his second-lowest QB rating of the 2014 campaign (81.5).

And don’t for one second underestimate the crowd noise in Seattle Sunday, which is just one reason why CenturyLink is the toughest venue in the business to score a road win.

Why that game doesn’t matter now

If there’s one chink in the Seattle defense that Green Bay is capable of exploiting it’s the Seahawks’ run defense.

While Pete Carroll’s crew finished the regular season ranked third against the run (81.5 yds/gm), Seattle surrendered an average of 138.7 yards per game on the ground in its four losses this year, which is a staggering increase from the 62.4 yards per game permitted through the team’s 12 victories.

Eddie Lacy (12 carries, 34 yards) was a non-factor in Week 1 against Seattle as well as through Green Bay’s first four contests. But the Alabama product came on strong down the stretch and will need to have a big outing if the Packers plan on having any chance of advancing to Arizona for the Super Bowl.



Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-6.5, 54)

Last meeting (11/16/2014): Patriots defeat Colts 42-20 as New England converts 9 of 11 third down opportunities en route to 503 total yards of offense. Unknown running back Jonas Gray leads the way for the Patriots with 201 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 37 carries.

Why that game matters now

The New England Patriots were a three-point dog in hostile territory during a primetime Sunday night encounter at Lucas Oil Stadium, and wound up covering the number by 25 points.

So now that the venue is switching to a stadium where quarterback Tom Brady has gone 49-7 over the last six seasons, why should we believe the result will be any different?

Indianapolis’ run defense ranked 18th in the league during the regular season with the club surrendering over 100 rushing yards in seven of eight road contests. And if there’s one thing we know about head coach Bill Belichick, it’s that he’s a master at exploiting the opposition’s weaknesses.

Why that game doesn’t matter now

Of the 246 rushing yards New England amassed against Indianapolis back in November, 201 were racked up by Gray, which is a real head-scratcher because Gray has carried the ball just 20 times since.

But the real angle here is the fact that this is not the regular season. Take note that for as dominant as the Patriots have been during the Brady-Belichick era, the organization is just 3-11 ATS over its last 14 playoff games and 0-5 ATS over its last five Conference Championship games.

So is it really a surprise to see that this number has already been bet down from New England -7.5 to as low as New England -6?

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Sunday, January 18

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFC Championship Preview: Packers at Seahawks
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Green Bay Packers (13-4) at Seattle Seahawks (13-4)

Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET, at CenturyLink Field, Seattle -- TV: FOX

*TV announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews, Chris Myers

*Keys to the game: It's easy to dismiss the Packers' 36-16 loss in Seattle to open the 2014 season as being more than four months ago, when both were far different teams than the versions that will do battle Sunday. But for Green Bay, the demons of that primetime drubbing could quickly resurface with a slow start. The Packers played scared offensively in Week 1, including not a single target against Pro Bowl CB Richard Sherman.

QB Aaron Rodgers enters the rematch coming off an impressive second-half performance against Dallas on a strained left calf. How well he can move will be critical because the Cowboys proved Rodgers is an entirely different animal when hemmed in the pocket. Seattle plays fast and aggressive at home, and any lack of mobility will be blood in the water. The counter is Eddie Lacy, who plowed his way to 101 yards on 19 carries against Dallas.

Seattle's third-ranked run defense can be hit up the middle -- Carolina's Jonathan Stewart averaged 5.4 yards per carry last week -- and chewing off positive yardage on first and second down will set Rodgers up to attack the Seahawks in manageable passing situations.

Seahawks QB Russell Wilson's 109.6 passer rating in five playoff games is the highest in NFL history, and the bouts of inaccuracy he suffered through during midseason have largely disappeared during the team's seven-game winning streak. He is running the zone read well with RB Marshawn Lynch, who ripped off 110 yards on 20 carries in Week 1. Green Bay struggled with DeMarco Murray last week (123 yards on 25 carries) and if Lynch gets untracked early it plays directly into Wilson's hands at home.

For as pedestrian as the Seahawks offense often appears, Wilson does strike quickly against man coverage, particularly down the seam. The Packers racked up four sacks and eight QB hits last week and stopping the run to take advantage of Seattle's pass protection issues is imperative.

*Matchup to watch -- Packers WR Randall Cobb vs. Seahawks CB Jeremy Lane: With Sherman and Byron Maxwell patrolling the outside, Cobb was targeted nine times with six catches in Week 1 -- when Lane was sidelined by a groin injury.

*Player spotlight -- Seahawks WR Jermaine Kearse: After a modest 38 receptions during the regular season, Kearse exploded for three catches for 129 yards including a 63-yard touchdown last week. He has a touchdown in three consecutive playoff games.

*Fast facts: The Packers have won both previous playoff meetings (2003, 2007). ... The Seahawks have an eight-game postseason home winning streak. ... Green Bay's .620 all-time playoff winning percentage (31-19) is the highest in NFL history.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

The Seahawks are 25-2 at home the past two seasons, including a Week 1 thumping of the Packers. Lacy can set the table for Rodgers and Green Bay can move the ball against Seattle's top-ranked defense. But Rodgers not firing on all cylinders robs Green Bay of the 100 percent horsepower it needs to upset the defending champs on the road.

*Our pick: Seahawks 27-23

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Sunday, January 18

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFC Championship Preview: Colts at Patriots
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Indianapolis Colts (13-5) at New England Patriots (13-4)

Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET, at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass. TV: CBS

*TV announcers: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson

*Keys to the game: Patriots coach Bill Belichick said he sees no weakness in Colts QB Andrew Luck's game right now, but there is one obvious advantage tilting the scales toward the Patriots besides home-field advantage -- Tom Brady is going to his fourth consecutive AFC Championship Game and holds the NFL record with 19 playoff wins. Luck has two, both coming in these playoffs.

Belichick is known to unveil a new wrinkle or three as the stakes elevate -- right, John Harbaugh? -- but he might be wiser sticking with what worked in New England's 42-20 win at Indy earlier this season. That was riding the running game, and since-buried Jonas Gray, to eat the clock and give Luck the rightful impression that he needed to hustle to keep the Colts close.

Brady and Co. put up a season-high 28 points in the second half of that game, but the quarterback played more of a bit part than usual. The Patriots have averaged nearly 40 rushing attempts, 200 yards and four ground scores in three previous blowout wins over Andrew Luck's Colts. Three of Indy's final four opponents of the season ran the ball 32 times or more.

For the Colts to counter, they'll need to take the Patriots out of their comfortable Sunday evening stroll, putting up points early and often. Luck and the Colts are not known for shifting into higher gears in the first quarter -- they have just seven points in two playoff games after averaging 6.7 points in the first quarter in 16 regular-season games.

The best option for quick points is WR T.Y. Hilton, who irritated the Denver Broncos into penalties and mental cramps last week. However, Hilton will be shadowed again by CB Darrelle Revis, who helped limit Hilton to three catches for 24 yards in November.

*Matchup to watch: Colts RB Daniel Herron vs. Patriots run defense. New England was chopped up by Justin Forsett and the Ravens last week. The Patriots play bend-don't-break and will count on their front seven to contain Herron, who did not touch the ball in the Nov. 16 meeting. Colts running backs combined for 13 carries and four yards in the previous meeting.

*Player spotlight: Patriots C Brian Stork. The only player not to practice for the team at midweek, Stork has a right knee injury that took him out of last week's divisional playoff game. The rookie fourth-round pick was given plenty of praise and credit for helping to solidify an offensive line that struggled mightily in the first month of the season. RG Ryan Wendell, who is light and easily moved, would bump inside to the center spot, where he started the previous two seasons, while inconsistent backup Josh Kline likely would play right guard if Stork sits.

*Fast facts: The Colts have a 2-7 record at Gillette Stadium and a 12-25 overall road record against the Patriots. ... New England is third in the NFL with 422 yards in the playoffs. The Colts are averaging 423 in two wins this postseason. ... This is the 11th AFC title game for the Patriots, who are 7-3. ... The Patriots would tie the Cowboys and Steelers with their eighth Super Bowl appearance with a win Sunday.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

It would not be a surprise to see Belichick and Brady call for the changeup and come out gunning to set up the run. For the Colts to be in the game into the fourth quarter, Luck must throw strikes all game long and continue his MVP-caliber effort by stacking sixes with the Patriots.

*Our pick: Patriots 35-25

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel

Indianapolis at New England
The Colts (6-3 SU on the road) head to New England on Sunday to face a Patriots team that is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 home games versus a team with a winning road record. New England is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 12. Dunkel Pick: New England (-7). Here are all of this week's NFL picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 18

Game 301-302: Green Bay at Seattle (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 143.240; Seattle 147.300
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 4; 44
Vegas Line: Seattle by 7 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+7 1/2); Under

Game 303-304: Indianapolis at New England (6:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 131.803; New England 143.578
Dunkel Line: New England by 12; 57
Vegas Line: New England by 7; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-7); Over




NFL
Long Sheet

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 18

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (13 - 4) at SEATTLE (13 - 4) - 1/18/2015, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SEATTLE is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 84-59 ATS (+19.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 62-38 ATS (+20.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (13 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (13 - 4) - 1/18/2015, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 166-128 ATS (+25.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 105-75 ATS (+22.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 73-48 ATS (+20.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
INDIANAPOLIS is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
INDIANAPOLIS is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NFL
Short Sheet

Conference Championships

Sun, Jan. 18

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks, 3:05 ET - NFC Championship Game

Green Bay
1-8 ATS as an underdog
1-5 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points
2-5 ATS against NFC West division opponents
98-66 OVER off 1 or more consecutive unders

Seattle
16-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
10-3 ATS against conference opponents
13-3 ATS off a home win
13-4 OVER in home games against NFC North division opponents


Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots, 6:40 ET - AFC Championship Game

Indianapolis
10-3 ATS against conference opponents
18-7 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
6-0 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games
27-13 OVER as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points

New England
2-9 ATS as a #1 seed in the playoffs
15-21 ATS after gaining 350 or more passing yards in last game
26-12 OVER in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game
32-16 OVER after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored




NFL

Conference Championships

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3:05 PM
GREEN BAY vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Green Bay's last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Green Bay's last 18 games on the road
Seattle is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Green Bay

6:40 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. NEW ENGLAND
Indianapolis is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of New England's last 14 games at home

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Conference Championships

Packers (13-4) @ Seahawks (13-4)-- Last seven NFC title games were all decided by 7 or less points, with visitor winning three of last four. Green Bay is 12-0 on grass, 1-4 on turf, including 36-16 (+5.5) loss here in Week 1 Thursday night game, when Seattle ran for 207 yards, outgained Pack by 143 yards and had 12-yard edge in field position. Pack is 0-3 as an underdog this year; Rodgers' calf not being 100% doesn't help. Seattle won its last seven games (6-0-1 vs spread); they've allowed three TDs in last four games, while defense scored two TDs of their own. #1 seeds in NFC are 4-2 vs spread in their last six NFC title games; underdogs are 4-2-1 in last seven NFC title tilts.

Colts (13-5) @ Patriots (13-4)-- New England scored 41.2 ppg in winning last five series games; they ran ball for 244 yards in 42-20 win at Indy in Week 11, with RB Gray spark in an offense that had 33 first downs, scoring six TDs on nine drives in game that Patriots led only 14-10 at half. Indy won three in row, seven of last eight games; this is their 4th road game in five weeks. Colts are 1-2 as underdogs; their last three losses were by 17-22-35 points. Home team won seven of last eight AFC title games; #1 seeds in AFC won last four games in this spot. Since 1990, favorites are 17-13 vs spread in conference title games that were a rematch from a regular season game.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Conference Championships


Rain, winds expected to hamper NFL Conference Championships

The only thing that looks to dampen the excitement of the NFL Conference Championship games Sunday is the weather. Both games are expected to be hampered by high winds and large amounts of rain.

Heavy rain amounting to 20-35 millimeters is expected to fall on Saturday in Seattle. Rain is expected to let up Sunday, but light precipitation is expected throughout the day.

Winds are expected to be blowing hard at CenturyLink Field as well, blowing between 13-16 miles per hour towards the south endzone throughout the game.

Gillette Stadium will be less windy than its Northwestern counterpart, but rain is expected to be heavier for gametime.

Rain is expected to start in the early afternoon in Foxbouough and fall non-stop through the AFC title game. Rainfall is expected to amount to between 20-30 mm with winds gusting upwards of 5 mph.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Championship Sunday

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, 46.5)

Packers’ Yards after the catch vs. Seahawks’ YAC allowed

Aaron Rodgers proved that a one-legged man does have a chance in an ass-kicking contest, putting on a gutsy performance in the NFC Divisional Round. Rodgers, limited by a torn calf muscle, was stellar in the second half versus the Dallas Cowboys, but his ability to move around in the pocket and the lack of zip on his deep throws were very evident. It’s why Jordy Nelson only had 22 yards on two catches last Sunday.

Since shifting to a shotgun/pistol heavy offense, the Packers have relied a lot on yards after the catch. Defenses are guarding against the deep ball, leaving underneath routes and short passes with little resistance. Green Bay is third in the NFL in YAC, tacking on an additional 6.39 yards per reception and picking up almost 54 percent of their total receiving yards after the catch.

The Seahawks can’t help by salivate when sizing up A-Rod’s wonky leg. Seattle's rush not only can close in on passers in a heartbeat - sacking Rodgers three times as well as a forced fumble for a safety in Week 1 - but this defense allowed the second fewest yards after the catch this season. Opponents mustered just 96.3 YAC a game before the Seahawks torrid-tacklers wiped them out.

Seattle was also tops in shutting down the big play, giving up only 14 passes of 25 yards or more all season. With the Packers' long bombs all but defused, thanks to Rodgers’ calf injury, the Seahawks can focus on shutting down the short looks and jumping those passing lanes. Kam Chancellor's 90-yard interception return for six points against the Panthers last week was a perfect example of this.


Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-6.5, 54)

Colts’ revved-up run defense vs. Patriots’ o-line issues

The Patriots have run up and down the Colts in their recent meetings. New England is averaging 199.7 yards on the ground over the three games against Indianapolis with Andrew Luck and its quarterback, going back to 2012. The Pats have scored a total of 12 rushing touchdowns in that span, including a monster 246-yard, four-touchdown day on the ground in Week 11’s 42-20 thumping of the Colts on the road.

Running the ball on Indianapolis may not be as easy in the AFC Championship. A big reason has to do with the Patriots playing musical chairs on the offensive line since rookie center Bryan Stork went down with a knee injury in the second half of last week’s win against Baltimore. New England is well equipped to absorb the loss of the center – the most underrated position in football betting – sliding current right guard and former center Ryan Wendell to the middle. That shift, however, leaves the right guard position up in the air and throws a wrench in Bill Belichick’s beloved jumbo set, which has squashed the Colts in past meetings.

It’s a minor move that could have a major impact, due to the fact that New England has been able to blow up defenses with runs to the right side. According to FootballOutsiders.com, the Patriots averaged 5.71 Adjusted Line Yards when running off the right guard, which ranked second highest in the NFL. It’s a go-to side when the team desperately needs to pick up some ground gains and it might not be there Sunday.

On top of that, the Colts have put on their big boy pants when it comes to stuffing the run in recent weeks. The return of big-bodied defensive lineman Arthur Jones helps, especially drawing double teams and freeing up other tacklers. Jones missed the game against New England in November. Versus the Bengals in the Wild Card Round, the Colts stumped Cincinnati for only 110 yards. They locked down the Broncos to just 88 yards last weekend after Denver rumbled for an average of 145 yards per game in the final seven weeks of the season.

“We’re playing better run defense now than we ever have, so that’s a positive,” head coach Chuck Pagano told the media. “We’ve got to prepare the same way we prepared last week. We’ve got to do a better job because if we’re not able to stop the run, we’re not going to have a chance.”

 

[CNOTES]

Title Game History


January 17, 2015




Some of the most compelling viewing in recent NFL seasons has come in conference championship games. That certainly has not been a constant since the AFL-NFL merger of 1970, especially a period of time the '80s and into the early '90s when conference title games usually featured one-sided results. But those blowouts have been the exception of late in these showdown games, as only three conference title clashes over the past seven seasons have been decided by double-digit margins.


Along the way we have been treated to some instant classics, including last January's pulsating NFC title game between San Francisco and Seattle, won by the Seahawks 23-17. Although each of the last two AFC title games lacked much sustained drama, with Baltimore (two years ago) and Denver (last season) scoring comfortable wins over Bill Belichick and Tom Brady's New England.

For a while, however, we wondered if we were ever going to see a competitive conference title game or Super Bowl. Especially throughout much of the '80s, in particular a stretch of three straight NFC title games (49ers over Bears in 1984, Bears over Rams in 1985, and Giants over Redskins in 1986) that resulted in dominating shutouts for the victors. Those results, however, were nothing new; historically, championship-level battles, whether they be for conference crowns (since 1970), AFL-NFL in the early Super Bowl era from 1966-69, or other league title games in the pre-Super Bowl days, have often featured lopsided results.


We have always found it fascinating that the biggest blowout in pro football history occurred in the 1940 NFL title game when George Halas' Chicago Bears stepped on the throat of the Washington Redskins (who had beaten Halas three years earlier in the championship battle) by a whopping 73-0 count! (And, no, I was not around to cover that game!)


In a four-year span in the mid '50s, NFL title games produced scorelines of 56-10 (Browns over Lions in 1954), 28-14 (Browns over Rams in 1955), 47-7 (Giants over Bears in 1956), and 59-14 (Lions getting their revenge on the Browns in 1957)


It was more of the same throughout much of the 1960s, with NFL title games featuring some romps such as 37-0 (Packers over Giants in 1961), 27-0 (Browns over Colts in 1964), 34-0 (as the Colts gained revenge over the Browns in 1968), and 27-7 (Vikings over the poor Browns again in 1969). Meanwhile, old AFL title games featured some lopsided results as well, including wipeouts such as 51-10 (Chargers over Patriots in 1963), 23-0 (Bills over Chargers in 1965), 31-7 (Chiefs over Bills in 1966), and 40-7 (Raiders over Oilers in 1967).

Results of conference championship games once again tilted to the home teams and favorites last season when both Denver in the AFC (over New England) and Seattle in the NFC (over San Francisco) won and covered the number in their respective games.


Those home/favorite trends had not been so pronounced in the preceding years, especially in the NFC, where home teams lost outright in three straight and failed to cover four conference title games in a row. Though the host Broncos and Seahawks won last season, the previous year it was both road teams (Baltimore in the AFC, San Francisco in the NFC) winning outright, for the first time in conference title tilts since the 1997 playoffs.


Favorites continue to hold an edge against the spread in these games since the merger year of 1970 (48-37-2), although, as mentioned, their dominance has been less pronounced in recent years, with the dogs covering five of the last eight conference title battles (even with chalk Denver and Seattle prevailing a year ago).


Among ATS category trends in AFC & NFC championship battles, note that "intermediate/high" chalk (those laying between 7-9½ points) stands 15-6 vs. the number in conference championships since 1970.


Double-digit favorites, however, are only 4-8 vs. the line. Home teams have won straight up two-thirds of the time since the merger (59 of 88).


Conference title "total" trends are not especially pronounced, though we've seen "unders" in five of six games the past three seasons.


Acknowledging the earlier references to historical one-sided results in these games, please note that even with the closer conference title clashes in recent years, almost half of the AFC & NFC championship battles since the 1970 merger (39 of 88) have been decided by 14 points or more, with nearly two-thirds (55 of 88) being decided by double digits.


Following is a list of ATS breakdowns and results of AFC & NFC Championships since 1970.


CHAMPIONSHIP GAME BETTING RESULTS (1970-2014)
Category Result
Favorites vs. line 48-37-2 (1 pick)
Favorites straight up 58-29
Favored by 0-3 points 12-10
Favored by 3½-6½ points 17-13-2
Favored by 7-9½ points 15-6
Favored by 10 or more 4-8
Home teams straight up 58-30
Home teams vs. spread 48-40-2
Home favorites vs. spread 40-29-2
Home underdogs vs. spread 8-8
Home picks vs. spread 0-1
Over/under (since 1986) 30-251


CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - MARGINS OF VICTORY (1970-2014)
Category Result
1-3 points 12
4-6 points 13
7-10 points 13
11-13 points 11
14 points or more 39

 

[CNOTES]

NFC Championship Preview


January 17, 2015




The Seahawks are back in the NFC Championship for the second straight year, seeking a return trip to the Super Bowl and looking to become the first team to win back-to-back Super Bowls since New England accomplished that feat 10 years ago. Seattle began the season taking on Green Bay on the opening Thursday night, as the Packers try to capitalize off a comeback victory in the divisional round.


Green Bay (13-4 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) erased a 21-13 deficit against Dallas last Sunday with a pair of touchdown passes by the gimpy Aaron Rodgers to eliminate the Cowboys, 26-21. The Packers failed to cover as 5 ½-point favorites, but Rodgers hooked up with rookie tight end Richard Rodgers (no relation) for the go-ahead score with nine minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Of course the major storyline coming from this NFC Divisional battle was the overturned call on the Dez Bryant catch in the fourth quarter on fourth down that would have given Dallas a first and goal at the one-yard line trailing by five points.


The Packers finished the season with a perfect 9-0 record at Lambeau Field, while Rodgers managed to throw for 316 yards and three touchdowns in spite of a lingering left calf injury. Eddie Lacy rushed for 101 yards, while rookie wideout Davante Adams hauled in seven catches for 117 yards and a touchdown to help out the injured Rodgers. Since winning Super Bowl XLV over Pittsburgh in January 2011, the Packers are just 2-2 at Lambeau Field in the postseason, which includes a pair of one-and-dones in 2013 against San Francisco and 2011 against the Giants.


The Seahawks (13-4 SU, 10-6-1 ATS) continued to roll following a 3-3 start to the season by picking up their seventh straight win in a 31-17 victory over Carolina in last Saturday’s divisional round. Seattle cashed as 13 ½-point favorites after that line jumped later in the week, as Seahawks’ backers can thank Kam Chancellor, who intercepted Cam Newton in the fourth quarter and returned it 90 yards for a touchdown to put Seattle up 31-10. The Panthers would score late, but the Seahawks beat the Panthers for the fourth time since 2012, while Russell Wilson threw three touchdown passes in the victory.


How good has Pete Carroll’s team been lately? During this seven-game hot streak, the Seahawks have covered six times, while pushing in a 10-point victory over San Francisco in Week 15. The defense is returning to its “Legion of Boom” status that carried Seattle to a Super Bowl title last season, as the Seahawks have allowed 17 points or less in five straight wins at CenturyLink Field.


Rewinding back to Week 1 of the season when these two teams met up, the Seahawks and Packers were tied at 10-10 late in the second quarter until a Marshawn Lynch nine-yard touchdown run turned the game into a rout. Seattle reeled off 19 unanswered points to grab a commanding 29-10 lead and picked up a 36-16 blowout to easily cover as 4 ½-point favorites. Seattle’s defense limited Green Bay to 255 yards, while Lynch rushed for two scores and 110 yards. The Packers weren’t a reliable underdog this season, posting an 0-3 SU/ATS record when receiving points.


Seattle has won six of seven playoff games since Wilson took over as starting quarterback back in 2012, while winning all three contests at CenturyLink Field, including a 23-17 victory over San Francisco in last January’s NFC title game. The Seahawks have lost twice to the Packers in postseason play, with both of those defeats coming to Brett Favre in Green Bay in 2003 and 2007. Green Bay has won three of five road playoff games with Rodgers at the helm since 2009 with all three of those victories coming during their championship run of 2010.


VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson gives his spin on this matchup, “The Packers did struggle against some of the better defenses they faced this season, going 1-3 vs. top 10 yards-per-play defenses this season, but Seattle has not played a top 10 yards-per-play offense since losing to Dallas at home in mid-October. This is a rare matchup of a top offense vs. a top defense, a matchup that has historically favored the defensive team in Super Bowls with the Seahawks destroying the Broncos in last year’s Super Bowl as the most recent example.”


Green Bay’s struggles as a ‘dog is also a concern, as pointed out by Nelson, “The Packers have been on a terrible run as an underdog (1-10-1 ATS in the last 12) though some of those games were without Rodgers and the Seahawks have been truly dominant at home going 25-2 S/U and 20-7 ATS since 2012 but this could be a very interesting game with an intriguing line set at just above a touchdown for the home favorite.”


Where is the money going on Sunday? Executive director of Race & Sports at the Wynn Las Vegas Johnny Avello says it’s coming on the home team, “We opened Seattle at -6 ½, but the money came in on the Seahawks, as we moved the number to -7. Eventually we had to push Seattle up to -7, -120.” Avello also believes that this game can eclipse the ‘over’ of 46 ½, saying this Packers team will score in spite of Rodgers’ injury.


Seattle’s victory over San Francisco last January actually snapped a three-game losing streak by home teams in the NFC Championship, while the ‘under’ has hit in three of the previous four NFC title games.


Currently, Seattle is a 7 ½-point favorite at many books, while the total sits at a constant 46 ½. The NFC Championship kicks off at 3:05 PM EST at CenturyLink Field and can be seen on FOX.