Super Bowl XLIX props for profit
January 30, 2015
If you’re interested in betting whether Marshawn Lynch will punctuate his reluctant week in the spotlight with another unsportsmanlike conduct penalty in Super Bowl XLIX, the option is out there.
The odds on it are actually pretty good.
Sportsbook.ag users will find it under novelty props, paying +600 (6-to-1) on your investment if he, uh, expresses himself on the field in a manner that draws a 15-yard flag.
For those who want to cut out all the nonsense and simply want to spend their Super Bowl Sunday deciphering who grabs at their crotch more, Lynch or halftime act Katy Perry, each is listed at -120.
My money there is on Perry. She’s frisky.
This is where the unofficial national holiday we annually look forward to this time of year is in 2015. Deal with it and embrace it.
Most people do, which is why the Nielsen rating over/under is set at an astronomical 47.5 (Over -135, Under -105). That’s larger than the 46.4 last year’s game drew. Over 111 million watched the Seahawks beat Denver, while the total for Sunday’s game is set at 113 million (Over -140, Under Even).
I’d back the over on both. Think about it. You probably have to look hard to find someone in your life whose household won’t watch.
My young girls be watching, likely in awe, as Idina Menzel of "Frozen" fame belts out our national anthem. If she completes singing “brave,” as in “and the home of the brave,” in less than 2:03, then the under hits and Daddy wins a new pair of shoes.
Sure, “Let it go” is a solid 3:45, but that’s a much longer song than the “Star-Spangled Banner,” which opera singer Renee Fleming handled in a tidy 1:53 last year. That was a second shorter than Christina Aguilera’s 2011 offering, but a whole 19 seconds longer than it took Kelly Clarkson in 2012. Amazingly, Alicia Keys took a full minute and one second longer than Clarkson, a whopping 2:35, to finish the same song back in 2013. Did she invent new lines? Maybe she had the over.
Menzel is favored (-145) not to linger. With John Travolta not expected to be in the building to butcher her name and get her all shook, it’s a good bet she won’t overstay her welcome. If Menzel comes in at a clean two minutes, maybe my little ones can get a few more Anna and Elsa dolls, too.
We’ve come a long way from heads or tails, which is still a popular bet. From the color of Bill Belichick’s hoodie (grey -155, blue +115) to Perry’s choice of attire for her first song (dress/skirt -225, pants/shorts/bikini/leotard/other +165), you can find most anything to wager on.
A lot of it actually involves what takes place on the field between the actual players, if you can believe it. Here are a 12 more props (odds courtesy of Westgate Superbook) worth seriously taking a look at in addition to the viewing audience projections and Menzel’s anthem rendition that will have you doing the Johnny Manziel money dance by night’s end:
Will either team score in the first 6:30 of the game? Both possibilities are at -110, but the heavy favorite here is NO. Although the NFC Championship started with fireworks due to Aaron Rodgers’ hot start and turnovers, it’s hard to imagine Tom Brady going right down the field against Seattle. The Seahawks are going to want to run the ball down New England’s throat if they get the ball first, which eats up clock. With eight minutes left, the call is that we’ll still be scoreless.
Will the first score of the game be a TD (-165) or any other score (+145)? Especially since you’re getting more bang for your buck, for reasons reference above as to why we might get a slow start and below regarding both kickers, a friendly field goal may come first. A safety also works.
Will both teams make a 33-yard field goal or longer? Pull the trigger on YES (+140). Stephen Gostkowski and Steven Hauschka should get opportunities and are both extremely reliable. No is actually the favorite at -160 since the stipulation of length rides as an unfriendly variable, but this has the feel of a game where both coaches will take points when they’re in range as opposed to risking turnovers, at least early on. Mix in a two-minute drill possibly yielding an opportunity and this is one to get behind.
Will Tom Brady throw an interception? Ride with YES (-150). There’s a reason the future Hall of Famer is expected to throw a pick, odds-wise. He’s thrown an INT in eight of his last 10, including both playoff games, which doesn’t bode well considering this is the best secondary he’s run into. Despite how great he’s been in these money games, he has been picked off in two of five Super Bowls. It will be three in six after Sunday. If you disagree, you can get +130 on it.
Will Jermaine Kearse’s first reception be over/under 9.5 yards? Both are -110, but we’ll be chasing the OVER here. He had a 35-yard catch for a score the only time he caught a ball against Green Bay. His first catch against Carolina went for 33 yards. His next one went for 63 and a touchdown. The University of Washington product has emerged as a big-play guy. Backing that his first touch will go at least 10 yards looks attractive. Kearse is also a solid play to gain over 43.5 receving yards (-110).
Will Rob Gronkowski have more than 5.5 receptions (over -135/under +115)? Despite the prospect of facing off with star safety Kam Chancellor all day, odds are great he’ll lead the team in targets. The Patriots have targeted him at least eight times in 12 of the last 13 games, so he’s had at least six catches in eight times. Unless he has to leave the game for any reason, the OVER is the play.
Will the total number of Patriots to catch a pass from Brady exceed 6.5 (over -125/under +105)? Go OVER. Brady is a lock to get the ball to tight ends Gronkowski and Tim Wright, receivers Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Brandon LaFell and running back Shane Vereen at least once. You have to figure the opportunity to flip it to LeGarrette Blount, Michael Hoomanawanui or an eligible offensive lineman should also present itself. Deep threat Brian Tyms might get a look. Eight Broncos caught passes against the Seahawks in last year’s Super Bowl despite a 43-8 defeat. Look for at least seven New England players to wind up in a catch and pay the juice.
Will the Patriots score in all four quarters? Yes gets you +240 for a reason. The Seahawks aren’t going to let that happen. Unfortunately, the juice is steep at -280.
Who will have more points, Lakers guard Jeremy Lin in his return to New York or Seattle in the first half? Lin has been placed in a backup role behind rookie point guard Jordan Clarkson, so he could continue to struggle coming off the bench in the Garden. He’s 8-for-24 from the field in in his last three games. The Seahawks are only laying half-a-point.
What will be the higher figure, Monta Ellis points (-1.5) or Marshawn Lynch’s longest rush? Obviously, if Lynch goes Beast mode and breaks off a 30-yard run you’re in trouble, but if the Patriots hold him to 20 or less, this looks great. Ellis is the Mavericks top scorer should get off against Orlando, which has given up an average of 111.8 points over their last 11 games, surrendering over 100 each time. Dallas ranks third in the NBA in points per game (107.2).
What will be the higher figure, LeBron James’ points (-3.5) or Tom Brady completions? This won’t go off if James, doesn’t play, but if he’s a go, taking Brady completions (+3.5) is definitely the play. The Cavs are in Minnesota, so if he bothers to lace them up, James might sit back and play facilitator, getting his teammates buckets for three quarters before sitting out the fourth in a likely blowout.
What will be the higher figure, combined goals in Chelsea-Manchester City or Tom Brady rushing attempts? Although Brady isn’t shy about putting his head down in big games and may be under duress all day against Seattle, you still have to ride with balls finding the back of the net in the Premier League’s match of the week. Chelsea gave up four goals against Bradford City in a shocking FA Cup loss last time out, but managed a 5-0 rout of host Swansea City in its last EPL game. There have been 24 goals scored in Chelsea’s six outings in 2015. Yes, that’s a lot. Man City tied Jose Mourinho’s team 1-1 at home early in the season, but should see more goals scored at Stamford Bridge on Saturday. In this favorable pick’em, back goals over Brady rushes.
January 30, 2015
If you’re interested in betting whether Marshawn Lynch will punctuate his reluctant week in the spotlight with another unsportsmanlike conduct penalty in Super Bowl XLIX, the option is out there.
The odds on it are actually pretty good.
Sportsbook.ag users will find it under novelty props, paying +600 (6-to-1) on your investment if he, uh, expresses himself on the field in a manner that draws a 15-yard flag.
For those who want to cut out all the nonsense and simply want to spend their Super Bowl Sunday deciphering who grabs at their crotch more, Lynch or halftime act Katy Perry, each is listed at -120.
My money there is on Perry. She’s frisky.
This is where the unofficial national holiday we annually look forward to this time of year is in 2015. Deal with it and embrace it.
Most people do, which is why the Nielsen rating over/under is set at an astronomical 47.5 (Over -135, Under -105). That’s larger than the 46.4 last year’s game drew. Over 111 million watched the Seahawks beat Denver, while the total for Sunday’s game is set at 113 million (Over -140, Under Even).
I’d back the over on both. Think about it. You probably have to look hard to find someone in your life whose household won’t watch.
My young girls be watching, likely in awe, as Idina Menzel of "Frozen" fame belts out our national anthem. If she completes singing “brave,” as in “and the home of the brave,” in less than 2:03, then the under hits and Daddy wins a new pair of shoes.
Sure, “Let it go” is a solid 3:45, but that’s a much longer song than the “Star-Spangled Banner,” which opera singer Renee Fleming handled in a tidy 1:53 last year. That was a second shorter than Christina Aguilera’s 2011 offering, but a whole 19 seconds longer than it took Kelly Clarkson in 2012. Amazingly, Alicia Keys took a full minute and one second longer than Clarkson, a whopping 2:35, to finish the same song back in 2013. Did she invent new lines? Maybe she had the over.
Menzel is favored (-145) not to linger. With John Travolta not expected to be in the building to butcher her name and get her all shook, it’s a good bet she won’t overstay her welcome. If Menzel comes in at a clean two minutes, maybe my little ones can get a few more Anna and Elsa dolls, too.
We’ve come a long way from heads or tails, which is still a popular bet. From the color of Bill Belichick’s hoodie (grey -155, blue +115) to Perry’s choice of attire for her first song (dress/skirt -225, pants/shorts/bikini/leotard/other +165), you can find most anything to wager on.
A lot of it actually involves what takes place on the field between the actual players, if you can believe it. Here are a 12 more props (odds courtesy of Westgate Superbook) worth seriously taking a look at in addition to the viewing audience projections and Menzel’s anthem rendition that will have you doing the Johnny Manziel money dance by night’s end:
Will either team score in the first 6:30 of the game? Both possibilities are at -110, but the heavy favorite here is NO. Although the NFC Championship started with fireworks due to Aaron Rodgers’ hot start and turnovers, it’s hard to imagine Tom Brady going right down the field against Seattle. The Seahawks are going to want to run the ball down New England’s throat if they get the ball first, which eats up clock. With eight minutes left, the call is that we’ll still be scoreless.
Will the first score of the game be a TD (-165) or any other score (+145)? Especially since you’re getting more bang for your buck, for reasons reference above as to why we might get a slow start and below regarding both kickers, a friendly field goal may come first. A safety also works.
Will both teams make a 33-yard field goal or longer? Pull the trigger on YES (+140). Stephen Gostkowski and Steven Hauschka should get opportunities and are both extremely reliable. No is actually the favorite at -160 since the stipulation of length rides as an unfriendly variable, but this has the feel of a game where both coaches will take points when they’re in range as opposed to risking turnovers, at least early on. Mix in a two-minute drill possibly yielding an opportunity and this is one to get behind.
Will Tom Brady throw an interception? Ride with YES (-150). There’s a reason the future Hall of Famer is expected to throw a pick, odds-wise. He’s thrown an INT in eight of his last 10, including both playoff games, which doesn’t bode well considering this is the best secondary he’s run into. Despite how great he’s been in these money games, he has been picked off in two of five Super Bowls. It will be three in six after Sunday. If you disagree, you can get +130 on it.
Will Jermaine Kearse’s first reception be over/under 9.5 yards? Both are -110, but we’ll be chasing the OVER here. He had a 35-yard catch for a score the only time he caught a ball against Green Bay. His first catch against Carolina went for 33 yards. His next one went for 63 and a touchdown. The University of Washington product has emerged as a big-play guy. Backing that his first touch will go at least 10 yards looks attractive. Kearse is also a solid play to gain over 43.5 receving yards (-110).
Will Rob Gronkowski have more than 5.5 receptions (over -135/under +115)? Despite the prospect of facing off with star safety Kam Chancellor all day, odds are great he’ll lead the team in targets. The Patriots have targeted him at least eight times in 12 of the last 13 games, so he’s had at least six catches in eight times. Unless he has to leave the game for any reason, the OVER is the play.
Will the total number of Patriots to catch a pass from Brady exceed 6.5 (over -125/under +105)? Go OVER. Brady is a lock to get the ball to tight ends Gronkowski and Tim Wright, receivers Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Brandon LaFell and running back Shane Vereen at least once. You have to figure the opportunity to flip it to LeGarrette Blount, Michael Hoomanawanui or an eligible offensive lineman should also present itself. Deep threat Brian Tyms might get a look. Eight Broncos caught passes against the Seahawks in last year’s Super Bowl despite a 43-8 defeat. Look for at least seven New England players to wind up in a catch and pay the juice.
Will the Patriots score in all four quarters? Yes gets you +240 for a reason. The Seahawks aren’t going to let that happen. Unfortunately, the juice is steep at -280.
Who will have more points, Lakers guard Jeremy Lin in his return to New York or Seattle in the first half? Lin has been placed in a backup role behind rookie point guard Jordan Clarkson, so he could continue to struggle coming off the bench in the Garden. He’s 8-for-24 from the field in in his last three games. The Seahawks are only laying half-a-point.
What will be the higher figure, Monta Ellis points (-1.5) or Marshawn Lynch’s longest rush? Obviously, if Lynch goes Beast mode and breaks off a 30-yard run you’re in trouble, but if the Patriots hold him to 20 or less, this looks great. Ellis is the Mavericks top scorer should get off against Orlando, which has given up an average of 111.8 points over their last 11 games, surrendering over 100 each time. Dallas ranks third in the NBA in points per game (107.2).
What will be the higher figure, LeBron James’ points (-3.5) or Tom Brady completions? This won’t go off if James, doesn’t play, but if he’s a go, taking Brady completions (+3.5) is definitely the play. The Cavs are in Minnesota, so if he bothers to lace them up, James might sit back and play facilitator, getting his teammates buckets for three quarters before sitting out the fourth in a likely blowout.
What will be the higher figure, combined goals in Chelsea-Manchester City or Tom Brady rushing attempts? Although Brady isn’t shy about putting his head down in big games and may be under duress all day against Seattle, you still have to ride with balls finding the back of the net in the Premier League’s match of the week. Chelsea gave up four goals against Bradford City in a shocking FA Cup loss last time out, but managed a 5-0 rout of host Swansea City in its last EPL game. There have been 24 goals scored in Chelsea’s six outings in 2015. Yes, that’s a lot. Man City tied Jose Mourinho’s team 1-1 at home early in the season, but should see more goals scored at Stamford Bridge on Saturday. In this favorable pick’em, back goals over Brady rushes.
