Cnotes 2014 - 2015 NFL Playoff Thread Thru the Super Bowl News, Notes,Trends, Stats & More !

[CNOTES]

NFL line watch: Cowboys backers keep an eye on Wisconsin weather

Spread to bet on now

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7)

“Front of the line bettors” are on Baltimore in this one, but it appears they may be shooting at shadows. Yes, the Ravens looked good in taking care of the Steelers in Pittsburgh. And yes, Baltimore has had recent success against the Patriots in Foxboro. And yes, the Patriots lost their last regular-season game. But like a spin of the roulette wheel, this is an independent trial.

New England has been in dry dock for a week and has had time to handle some needed repairs to its offensive line, which was a bit shoddy over the final month. And when the Pats played Baltimore over the last few years, New England was crippled by injuries to Wes Welker or Rob Gronkowski. This time Gronk is ready to go. Whoever you like in this one, books probably won’t budge off seven.


Spread to wait on

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

These aren’t the Dallas Cowboys football bettors have been accustomed. The old Boys would have figured out a way to throw away a playoff spot with poor play in December, or Tony Romo would have done something – anything – to turn a win into a loss. But now Dallas takes a five-game winning streak into Green Bay on Sunday, and Cowboy backers will be able to get nearly a full touchdown in what figures to be a grind-it-out taffy pull.

Temperatures in Green Bay are expected to moderate a bit by Sunday, but it’s possible that the game will finish in single digits, which could be a shock to the Cowboys. Not “Ice Bowl II” stuff, but still nasty enough. Early money is on Green Bay, but Dallas money may flood in late and move the line. Hang on a bit here and check out the variables later in the week.


Total to watch

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (40.5)

Plenty to offer here for both Over and Under aficionados. Under players can make an argument that Seattle’s defense is every bit as good now as it was at this time last season, and that Carolina can easily hang with the Seahawks because the Panthers haven’t given up more than 17 points in a game in more than a month.

But some Over players will jump at anything under 41 points (24-17) and figure all that’s needed is a couple of well-placed pass interference call to make dust of the Under. Either way, it’s hard to see the books adding a half-point to the scale.

 

[CNOTES]

Recent NFL history says Panthers are most dangerous team this postseason

The Carolina Panthers are the biggest underdogs on the board, set at +10.5 heading to Seattle for their NFL Divisional Round matchup this Saturday. The Panthers could also be the most dangerous team in football – if recent history has any say.

Carolina, at 7-8-1 in the regular season, joins the recent list of single-digit-win teams to tear it up in the playoffs. The Panthers’ 27-16 wild card victory over the Arizona Cardinals as 5.5-point favorites Saturday improved teams with single-digit wins in the regular season to 20-7 ATS in playoff games since 2008.

Carolina squeezed into the postseason with a one-sided win at Atlanta in Week 17, finishing atop the NFC South and earning an automatic postseason berth – just the second team in NFL history to make the playoffs with a sub-.500 finish to the regular season.

“The market has had a lot to do with it in the past, as lines have been overinflated going against these single-win teams,” says Covers Expert Matt Fargo, who cashed in on Carolina Saturday.

Last year, single-digit win teams were a perfect 3-0 ATS in the playoff. The Green Bay Packers (8-7-1 SU) just covered as 3.5-point underdogs in a 23-20 Wild Card loss to the San Francisco 49ers, and the San Diego Chargers (9-7 SU) knocked off the Cincinnati Bengals 27-10 as 6.5-point pups in the Wild Card Round and covered in a 24-17 loss to the Denver Broncos as 8-point underdogs in the AFC Divisional Round.

The two most prominent single-win postseason teams in that seven-year span have been the New York Giants, who finished 9-7 in 2011 and rolled to a Super Bowl XLVI title on perfect 4-0 SU and ATS postseason record, and Arizona Cardinals, who went 9-7 in 2008 and finished 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS eventually losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-23 as 6.5-point underdogs in Super Bowl XLIII.

“I don't think there's any question it’s a result of the overreaction to regular season results,” says Covers Expert Sean Murphy, who also won big on the Panthers this past weekend. “Outside of that, I'm not sure there's any particular reason why single-digit win teams cover at such a high rate. When the playoffs kick off the slate is always wiped clean and that gives a lot of confidence to underdogs with an 'us against the world' mentality.”

As for the Panthers’ chances against the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks, the opening odds had Carolina as high as +11.5 and have since been bet down as low as +10.5. Seattle has won four in a row in this series, covering the spread in three of those games. The lone blemish came this season, with the Panthers covering as 6-point home underdogs in a 13-9 loss to the Seahawks in Week 8.

“The Panthers defense came into the postseason playing awesome and they had outgained six straight opponents, make that seven now,” says Fargo. “This week, though, we are seeing the typical single-win team getting a lot of points and the market is driving this number based on the poor Carolina record going up against the defending Super Bowl Champions.”

For those not wanting to deal with so many points, there could be value on the Panthers to win outright at CenturyLink Field Saturday. Teams with single-digit wins in the regular season are an impressive 17-10 SU since 2008.

Carolina is currently a +475 outright underdog. Just sayin’.

 

[CNOTES]

Where the action is: NFL Playoffs biggest mid-week line moves

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots – Open: -7.5, Move: -7

Books opened with a half-point hook on this meeting between the Ravens and Patriots – two familiar postseason foes – and instant sharp money came in on Baltimore, trimming the half point off the line and settling the spread at a touchdown for New England. What happened after wiseguys had their say was a bit puzzling to bookmakers.

“After taking that initial sharp action on the dog, we’ve also started to see more and more recreational money come in on the dog,” Childs tells Covers. “I didn’t expect that money because our bettors have backed the Patriots in every one of their games since their dominating performance against the Bengals back in October.”

Childs believes the public’s betting interest in the Ravens stems from the media’s handy work, stirring up Baltimore’s past success against New England in the playoffs – almost the way a promoter would hype a heavyweight fight.

“For the first time in nearly three months, we’re going to need the Patriots,” he says. “And with them coming off a bye, and their major advantages on the defensive side of the ball, I have no problem going into this game needing the Patriots.”

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks – Open: -12.5, Move: -10.5

Sportsbook.ag went high on the Seahawks in this Divisional Round showdown with the Panthers, and all of the early action sided with Carolina. According to Childs, it was a mix of sharp and public money, dropping the spread two whole points in the first four hours it was on the board.

However, the move from -12 to -10.5 wasn’t based solely on the exposure on the Panthers, with 12 being a dead number in the eyes of the book. They leap frogged the spread to Seahawks -10.5 and are bracing for what the weekend may bring.

“What that early money did is show us the way on where this line should be, and it belongs at 10.5 and the 11-point range,” says Childs. “Since getting to 10.5, we’re seeing some Seahawks money show and it’s been nice, two-way action at 10.5 and I don’t think we’ll be moving off the 10.5 any time soon.”

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers – Open: -7, Move: -6.5

Books are playing tennis with this number, opening at a touchdown and going back and forth between Green Bay -7 and -6.5, settling at -6.5 for the time being. Early money took the underdog Cowboys but Childs isn’t so sure the sharps are done having their way with his NFC Divisional Round war.

“No question, we have some serious liability if this game lands seven because of all the money we’ve booked on the Cowboys at +7 (-115) and Packers -6.5 (-110),” he says. “But by going to that key number of seven it’s giving us great, two-way action on this game because at 6.5, it’s nothing but Packers money and at 7 it’s nothing but Cowboys money. I’d prefer booking this game somewhat even with a touch of liability if the game falls. We’ll see what happens, but at this point I like how the money is coming in so far.”

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos – Open -7.5, Move: -7

Wiseguys grabbed the half-point hook on the Colts when this line went up and bookmakers trimmed the line to an even touchdown. However, money showed on the home side Broncos following that adjustment. Rather than go back to the original number, Childs says they’ve been juggling the juice on this touchdown spread.

“This is going to be an easy game to book, the number will remain seven for the rest of the week and we’re just going to have to adjust the juice from time to time, but I just can’t see us getting off of seven in this one,” he says.

Oddsmaker’s note: “In all four games we’re pretty exposed on all the underdogs in regards to the moneyline. That’s to be expected. It’s the playoffs and we’re starting to see more and more recreational money come in on these games. Just like the Super Bowl in years past, our customers love taking the plus juice and taking a chance on a big score by laying a few dollars in hopes the underdog can win outright, cashing a nice score at +250 or more.”

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Divisional Tips


January 8, 2015




**Baltimore at New England**


-- As of Thursday, most betting shops had New England (12-4 straight up, 9-7 against the spread) installed as a seven-point favorite (at even money, Ravens +7 has a -120 price) with a total of 48. Gamblers can take the Ravens on the money line for a +250 return (risk $100 to win $250).


-- Baltimore (11-6 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) advanced to the AFC semifinals by going into Heinz Field and beating Pittsburgh and capturing a 30-17 victory as a three-point underdog. Joe Flacco threw for 259 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Steve Smith had five catches for 101 yards. Elvis Dumervil had a pair of sacks on Ben Roethlisberger, while Terrell Suggs had an amazing interception. Dumervil had 17 sacks during the regular season.

-- This is the fourth time in six years that these franchises will meet in the playoffs. During the 2009, 2011 and 2012 seasons, Baltimore had to go through Foxboro in the postseason. In the first meeting, Ray Rice led the Ravens to a 33-14 win as 3.5-point underdogs. Two seasons later, New England prevailed by a 23-20 count but Baltimore covered the spread as a seven-point 'dog. Two years ago, John Harbaugh's team outscored the Patriots 21-0 in the second half en route to a 28-13 win as an eight-point puppy.


-- In those three postseason encounters, Baltimore is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. Flacco has a 5/2 TD-INT ratio compared to Brady's 3/7 TD-INT ratio.


-- During the regular season, Flacco completed 62.0 percent of his throws for 3,986 yards with a 27/12 TD-INT ratio. Veteran Steve Smith hauled in 79 receptions for 1,065 yards and six TDs. Torrey Smith is the speedster who can stretch the field, and he brought down 49 catches for 767 yards and 11 TDs.


-- Baltimore RB Justin Forsett enjoyed a breakout year, rushing for 1,266 yards and eight TDs while averaging 5.4 yards per carry. However, he only ran for 40 yards on 16 carries against the Steelers last week. In fact, Forsett has rushed for more than 71 yards just once in the last five games.


-- Baltimore has won outright in three straight games as a road underdog, including scalps at New Orleans and at Miami before disposing of Pittsburgh. For the year, the Ravens are 3-2 both SU and ATS in five games as road 'dogs.


-- New England went 3-2 ATS in five games as a single-digit home favorite during the regular season. However, that stat should really be 3-1 ATS because the Pats lost outright to Buffalo as four-point home favorites in the regular-season finale when they rested many starters.


-- Leading into the Buffalo game, New England had won 10 of its last 11 games after a 2-2 start had some idiots implying that Brady was washed up and the Patriots' window to win another Super Bowl had closed. The only defeat in that 11-game stretch was a 26-21 setback at Green Bay.


-- Brady had another incredible year, connecting on 64.1 percent of his passes for 4,109 yards with a 33/9 TD-INT ratio. After the 41-14 loss at Kansas City on Monday Night Football that brought out all the Brady haters, the Michigan product responded by throwing 18 TDs compared to only one interception in the next five contests. The last was against Denver and Brady outplayed Peyton Manning yet again in a 43-21 win as a three-point home underdog.


-- For the first time at this point in the season in a long time, Pro-Bowl TE Rob Gronkowski is healthy and New England opponents are paying for it. Gronkowski started only 10 games and played in 15, recording 82 receptions for 1,124 yards and 12 TDs. Julian Edelman had 92 catches for 972 yards and four TDs.


-- Baltimore starting DT Tim Jernigan and starting OT Eugene Munroe are both 'questionable' with injuries.


-- The 'over' is 9-7 overall for the Pats, 5-3 in their home games. However, they have seen the 'under' go 5-1 in their last six games (regardless of the venue).


-- The 'under' is 9-7-1 overall for the Ravens, 4-0-1 in their last five games. But they have seen the 'over' cash at a 5-3-1 clip in their nine road assignments.


-- Kickoff is scheduled for Saturday at 4:35 p.m. Eastern on NBC.


**Carolina at Seattle**


-- As of Thursday, most spots had Seattle (12-4 SU, 9-6-1ATS) favored by 11 with a total of 39.5 or 40. The Panthers are available for a lucrative +450 return at the Westgate SuperBook if they can win outright.


-- Carolina (8-8-1 SU, 9-8 ATS) has caught fire at just the right time, winning five in a row to make the NFC semifinals. The Panthers were an abysmal 3-8-1 going into a Dec. 7 game at New Orleans. They came alive at the Superdome, however, where they always seem to play well. Ron Rivera's team blasted the Saints 41-10 as an 8.5-point underdog. Carolina was sloppy but stayed alive in non-covering home wins over Tampa Bay (19-17) and Cleveland (17-13) to set up a de-facto NFC South title game at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta on Dec. 28.


-- Carolina went into The ATL and dealt out woodshed treatment in the form of a 34-3 clubbing. The Panthers won outright as 2.5-point underdogs behind a defense that held the Falcons to a season-low in points. The Carolina defense sacked Matt Ryan six times and intercepted him twice, including a 31-yard pick-six from veteran safety Roman Harper that silenced the Ga. Dome crowd with 4:18 left in the second quarter. Cam Newton ran for a touchdown and threw for another and didn't commit a turnover.


-- Carolina shook off a 14-13 halftime deficit last week to knock off Arizona 27-16 as a 5.5-point home 'chalk.' Jonathan Stewart rushed 24 times for 123 yards and one TD, while Newton threw for 198 yards and two TDs. The Carolina defense gave up only 78 yards of total offense and forced three turnovers. Charles Johnson had a pair of sacks.


-- Seattle has won six in a row while compiling a 5-0-1 spread record. All six victories have come by double-digit margins, including a 20-6 home win over St. Louis as an 11-point 'chalk' in the regular-season finale. Defense was the story for the 'Hawks, who forced three turnovers and sacked Shaun Hill four times. Bruce Irvin had five tackles, one sack and a 49-yard pick-six which ultimately provided Seattle backers with the spread cover.


-- Seattle leads the NFL in rushing offense thanks to the presence of Marshawn Lynch, who has run for 1,306 yards and 13 TDs while averaging 4.7 YPC.


-- Seattle QB Russell Wilson contributes to the team's rushing stats as well. He has rushed for 849 yards and six TDs, averaging 7.2 YPC. Wilson has completed 63.1 percent of his passes for 3,475 yards with a 20/7 TD-INT ratio.


-- Wilson's favorite target is WR Doug Baldwin, who has 66 receptions for 825 yards and three TDs. Lynch has caught 37 balls for 367 yards and four more scores.


-- Newton has completed 58.5 percent of his throws for 3,127 yards with an 18/12 TD-INT ratio. He missed two games in the regular season. Newton has also rushed for 539 yards and five TDs while averaging 5.2 YPC.


-- Carolina rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin had a breakout campaign, producing 73 catches for 1,008 yards and nine TDs. Veteran TE Greg Olsen had 84 receptions for 1,008 yards and six TDs during the regular season.


-- Carolina will be without starting DT Star Lotulelei due to a foot injury. Lotulelei started 13 games during the regular season, producing 18 solo tackles, seven assists and two sacks. WR Philly Brown is 'questionable' with a shoulder injury and safety Thomas DeCoud is a question mark due to a hamstring ailment. DeCoud started 11 games in the regular season, tallying 34 solo tackles, 16 assists and one interception. Brown has played 13 games, starting three, and had 21 catches for 296 yards and a pair of TDs.


-- Carolina owns a 6-5 spread record with three outright wins in 11 games as an underdog this season. This is the Panthers' first situation as double-digit 'dogs. Their biggest 'dog spot came in the win at New Orleans when they were catching 8.5 points.


-- Seattle has won seven of its eight home games, posting a 4-4 spread record. The Seahawks have been double-digit home 'chalk' four times, going 1-2-1 versus the number.


-- The 'under' is on a 5-1 run for the Seahawks, who have the NFL's top-ranked scoring defense (15.9 PPG). They are also No. 1 in total defense and pass defense. However, totals have been a wash for Seattle overall (8-8) and in its home games (4-4). The Seahawks' games have averaged a combined score of 40.5 PPG.


-- The 'under' is 3-1 in Carolina's last four games (regardless of the venue), but the 'over' has cashed at a 6-2 clip in its eight road assignments.


-- FOX will have the telecast at 8:15 p.m. Eastern.

 

[CNOTES]

No fear is motto for visiting NFL teams


January 8, 2015


No fear.




That's the motto for the visiting teams in this weekend's NFL playoff games, a brave stance indeed considering the hosts were a combined 30-2 at home this season. And that includes one gimme, the Patriots' loss to Buffalo in a meaningless season finale.


There could be some validity, though, to the bravado displayed by Baltimore and Dallas. The Ravens have won two of their three postseason trips to New England, and lost by three points in the other. The Cowboys are 8-0 away from Dallas.


''Our guys have been in tough stadiums against good teams,'' said Ravens coach John Harbaugh, who has guided his team to the playoffs in six of his seven seasons, and won the 2012 NFL championship.


''No different this week going into a tough stadium against a good team. The fact that it's playoffs and those kinds of things, and we played in a playoff game last week on the road, that helps the guys ... the rookies. It's the first time they have ever done it, but they did a good job last week.


''All that other stuff, it's how well you play the game in that three-hour time block against the opponent you're playing against.''


The opponent for Dallas is, of course, Green Bay. And the elements in the Cowboys' first postseason visit to Lambeau Field since the 1967 Ice Bowl.


Cowboys coach Jason Garrett recognizes the interest in Sunday's matchup for historical reasons, but understands his players might not.


''Oh I think we have guys who are football fans and know some history,'' Garrett said. ''But having said that, we've got a lot of guys that were born in 1991 or 1992. So it's like ancient history to them. The `90s seem like history to them if that makes any sense to you.''


The other visitors are Carolina at Seattle on Saturday night, Indianapolis at Denver on Sunday.


Baltimore (11-6) at New England (12-4), Saturday


The Ravens come off their first playoff win at Pittsburgh, so they will carry some extra confidence into the opening game of the divisional round. Joe Flacco has seven road playoff wins, the most by a quarterback since the 1970 merger.


Of course, he goes up against the top seed in the AFC, a perennial Super Bowl contender led by Tom Brady. One thing is certain: Brady and the Patriots won't be lacking in conviction, either.


''We're always trying to win the last game of the year,'' Brady said. ''We set pretty high expectations and I think we all have high expectations, but you've got to go out there and earn it. It's not easy and this is a first step for us.


''A lot of teams played last week, we didn't get a chance to do that. This is a week where we can really try to make an impact on this season.


Dallas (13-4) at Green Bay (12-4)


Despite the result of the Ice Bowl, after which the Packers went on to win the Super Bowl, Dallas leads 4-2 in playoff matchups. It's the first time a team with an 8-0 home record in the regular season hosts one with an 8-0 road record.


The Cowboys are 15-9 in divisional playoff games, but lost their past three. They bring a high-powered offense paced by league rushing leader DeMarco Murray, QB Tony Romo, receiver Dez Bryant and tight end Jason Witten.


Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has been battling a calf injury and has had limited preparation for Sunday. Rodgers' home passer rating of 133.2 is the best in NFL history. He's had 418 pass attempts and 36 touchdown passes at Lambeau without an interception, both NFL records.


Carolina (8-8-1) at Seattle (12-4), Saturday night


The defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks know all about division winners with a losing record advancing to this round of the playoffs. They did it in 2010, and now they host the Panthers, who have won five in a row, including last week's wild-card victory over Arizona.


Defense has been the calling card for both sides, especially Seattle in the second portion of the schedule.


Looking to become the first defending champion to win a playoff game since New England in January 2006, the Seahawks led the NFL in total defense and points allowed for the second straight season. They also led in scoring defense for a third straight season and Seattle did not allow any fourth-quarter points in the past six games.


The Panthers have been strong defensively, too, ranking second to Seattle in points allowed (11.8) and yards yielded (238.2) since Dec. 1.


Indianapolis (12-5) at Denver (12-4)


Andrew Luck vs. Peyton Manning gets the main headlines here, and why not? The five-time MVP against the young master who took his place in Indy when Manning headed to the Rockies.


Luck has thrown for 300 or more yards in three straight postseason games and comes off a strong effort in the win over Cincinnati: 376 yards and a touchdown. He broke Manning's team mark with 4,761 yards through the air this season.


Manning, who led the Colts to eight division championships, two AFC championships and one Super Bowl title, has the Broncos tied for second-most wins (46) in the league since joining them.


Oh, and as for the home-field thing, the Broncos finished 8-0 at home for the sixth time. Minnesota has the record for most seasons with a perfect home mark with seven.

 

[CNOTES]

Panthers' Newton looks to end struggles


January 8, 2015


CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) - Cam Newton must find a way to beat his biggest nemesis for the Carolina Panthers to advance to the NFC championship game.


The fourth-year quarterback is 0-3 in his career and has struggled to find the end zone against the Seattle Seahawks, Carolina's opponent in Saturday night's divisional playoff game.


Newton has led only one touchdown drive in those three losses to the Seahawks.


He's barely completed 50 percent of his passes and is averaging just 145 yards passing per game. He's been sacked eight times and three turnovers, including two fumbles. Newton has also been limited to 104 yards on the ground and has not scored a touchdown rushing against Seattle.


''I can't really put a finger on it,'' Newton said of his struggles against the Seahawks. ''They have great players and they're coached extremely well.''


Seattle coach Pete Carroll said the Seahawks haven't done anything special against Newton.


''We've just tried to play football and hold on - and we've been able to get that done,'' Carroll said.


This will be Newton's first time playing in Seattle, so battling crowd noise will certainly add to Newton's challenges.


Panthers coach Ron Rivera said he believes Newton will be fine as long as he doesn't try to force the action against the league's No. 1-ranked defense.


''He just has to take what they give him,'' Rivera said. ''I know one thing about him is that he is so competitive and he wants to make things happen, but I think exercising the right type of patience will be good for him.''


Rivera said Newton has shown he can do just that in recent weeks.


While his stats haven't been spectacular, Newton has gotten the job done and the Panthers (8-8-1) have won five straight games.


''If Cam plays the way he has in some of the games in this past five-week stretch there are some really good possibilities for us,'' Rivera said.


Still, odds-makers aren't giving Newton and the Panthers much of a chance of winning on the road. They opened the week as an 11-point underdog.


Rivera said the Panthers will need to perform better in the red zone to have a chance - something they've struggled with most of the season and in past games against Seattle - and not turn the ball over.


Carolina settled for three field goal attempts last Saturday in a 27-16 wild-card win against Arizona and also had three turnovers, two by Newton.


''When I look back at this past game, we had ample opportunities to score,'' Newton said. ''We had a couple of turnovers, senseless turnovers at that. Me being the number one on the blame list being the leader of this offense, we just have to do better. If we do that, who knows what the game will turn out to be?''


Newton doesn't anticipate the Panthers doing anything differently than they have been in recent weeks.


They've leaned heavily on Jonathan Stewart in the running game the past five weeks and are averaging 196.6 yards rushing per game during that span.


Newton also said he won't hesitate to throw at Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman if the opportunity presents itself.


''Don't get me wrong, Richard Sherman is a top-tier cornerback,'' Newton said. ''But, if the read takes me there, I have to take it. I'm not going to shy away from it.''


The Panthers may be without speedy wide receiver Philly Brown, which could limit Newton's options on offense.


The rookie is still recovering from a shoulder injury he sustained against Arizona. He was limited Thursday at practice. Without him, the Panthers lack a deep threat.


Rivera said Thursday he'll make a decision on Brown's playing status closer to kickoff.


The Panthers are taking practice squad player Stephen Hill with them to Seattle in case Brown can't play, and they decide to add another wide receiver to the 53-man roster.


Brown said he feels well enough to play, but the decision will be up to the coaching staff.

 

[CNOTES]

Ravens' Suggs poised for Brady and Pats


January 8, 2015


OWINGS MILLS, Md. (AP) - Terrell Suggs wore a gladiator's mask during introductions at a Baltimore Ravens game this season in an effort to boost the spirit of his teammates for a duel with the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers.


The stunt earned him a $5,512 fine from the NFL. It also aptly displayed the mentality Suggs brings to the field on game day, that of a fun-loving warrior.


''He's entertaining and passionate at the same time,'' Ravens safety Will Hill said. ''You're going to have fun, but it's about business, too. You can see how dedicated and involved he is, not just with this organization but the game of football. He's going to give his all on every snap, and he demands that from every player on the field with him.''


Ever since his mentor, Ray Lewis, stepped into retirement, Suggs has taken over as the leader and spokesman for Baltimore's traditionally rugged defense. It's no coincidence that Suggs, like Lewis, is the last member of the unit to be introduced at home.


After the kickoff, the real fun begins - at home or away.


''I love playing football,'' Suggs said. ''It doesn't matter where I'm at.''


Suggs will often jabber at the competition and opposing fans, but his main job at outside linebacker is to help Baltimore win.


Suggs broke into the NFL as a brash 20-year-old. Over the course of a dozen years, he's learned when to bark at an opponent and when to show respect.


As the Ravens (11-6) prepare to face the New England Patriots (12-4) for the right to play in the AFC title game, Suggs has chosen the latter approach.


In the past, Suggs insisted that New England quarterback Tom Brady received preferential treatment from referees. He also said: ''I don't like him, he don't like me. I don't like his hair.''


This week, Suggs toned it down to this: ''He's a quarterback; I'm a defender. He has a job to do, and so do I. Naturally, there are going to be some disagreements there.''


In eight career games against New England, Suggs has 20 tackles, four sacks, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery. If he continues to play as he has this season, he's sure to add to those numbers.


Suggs started all 16 games and ranked third on the team with 61 tackles. He had 12 sacks, tied for the second most in his career, and his between-the-legs interception last weekend helped seal Baltimore's 30-17 playoff win over Pittsburgh.


''It looks like it's his third year out there,'' Brady said. ''He's the leader of that defense, he makes great plays. ... I have a lot of respect for his ability to play the game at a high level. He's phenomenal.''


Heard of that assessment, Suggs grinned and said, ''Did they record him? Like, they had a camera?''


Suggs says he's maintained a high level of play over the years because he got an early start to his career and has benefited from coach John Harbaugh's tendency to occasionally give veterans time off during the practice week.


''It does help coming into the league at 20,'' Suggs said. ''I wasn't like 23 or 24 when I came. I don't know, I think the past couple years coach has been doing a good job taking care of me, backing off the reps in camp and backing off the reps down the stretch.''


On and off the field, Suggs has applied lessons learned from Lewis, safety Ed Reed and even Deion Sanders, who wrapped up his career with Baltimore in 2004-05.


''I've had the privilege to be around real professionals, real vets, and not only just gods of the game, but guys that really know how to work and stay around the game for a long time,'' Suggs said. ''I had the luxury and the pleasure of being around guys like that. I got to learn it firsthand.''


Now, Suggs is one of the main figures in the Baltimore locker room.


''You have to have an emotional leader, and Suggs is definitely our emotional leader,'' Harbaugh said. ''He's fun; he keeps things loose. He always has high energy. `A lot of energy, a lot of focus' - that's what he says.


''I enjoy him. I know that, and the rest of the guys do. Along those lines, he's never not ready to play at the highest possible level, and he does that week in and week out.''

 

[CNOTES]

Colts defense girds for QB Manning -- again


January 8, 2015


INDIANAPOLIS (AP) - The Colts know what they must do to beat the Broncos - pressure Peyton Manning.


In a 2013 win, the Colts defense hit Manning 11 times and sacked him four. When they struggled to pressure him in Denver early this season, the Broncos put up 24 first-half points, including three touchdown throws from Manning to tight end Julius Thomas. The Colts sacked Manning just once and hit him a total of three times that game.


The most sacks Denver has allowed in a game this season is two, four different times, including Week 16 in a loss to Cincinnati where Manning was hit eight times and threw four interceptions.


Indianapolis hopes to follow suit and get Manning out of his comfort zone early in Sunday's playoff game in Denver.


''Every time you go into a game you always try to plan your rush and rush your plan,'' defensive end Cory Redding said. ''Interior push is absolutely critical this week. He wants to take his steps; he wants work up in the pocket and deliver the pass to his receivers. We know that we have to get push in the pocket. We've all got to be on the same page every single play in order to be successful against Peyton.''


Perhaps the most frustrating stat for the Colts against Manning has been their third-down-defense. While not all were through the air, Denver converted on third down seven out of 14 times.


''It starts with us being great on first and second down,'' linebacker Erik Walden said. ''Get them third and long and pin our ears back and get some pressure. (Manning) gets the ball out quick. If we can get him feeling our presence early will help us a lot, get him to pump (fake) and hopefully give one of our guys time to make a play.''


The Colts' 11th-ranked defense during the regular season allowed nearly 342 yards and 23 points per game. Denver's offense ranked fourth, responsible for roughly 400 yards and 30 points per game.


Still, Indianapolis only allowed 144 passing yards in its 26-10 wild-card win over the Bengals and Manning is aware of Indianapolis' improvements.


''It's been a long time since we played them. They've been playing well, they do a great job on third down, getting you off the field, really make you go on a long drive,'' Manning said. ''They play good, field-position football. They are playing well upfront, linebackers, secondary, so it really does feel like quite some time since that last game.''


Colts linebacker D'Qwell Jackson has had a hand in those improvements, leading Indianapolis with 140 total tackles. The nine-year veteran will be playing in just his second career postseason game on Sunday.


''We're playing against a great opponent; they've got weapons all over the board. It's well-documented what Peyton has done throughout his career and we're going into his home turf,'' Jackson said. ''We know the challenge ahead and they've also got to prepare for us as well.''


Manning's ability to change the play at the line of scrimmage is well known throughout the league. Colts linebacker Bjoern Werner stressed the importance of the defense not showing anything too early for that very reason.


''You try to listen to some of the key (audibles) we talk about all week at practice and usually they hold up, but sometimes you just have to lock in (to your assignment) and play football,'' defensive back Greg Toler said. ''We just got to disrupt the time between him and his receiver, get him off his mark and hopefully give those guys up front time to (pressure) him.''

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Divisional Round Playoffs

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7, 47.5)

Ravens’ ability to draw flags vs. Patriots’ penalty prone secondary

Referees have had a hair trigger when it comes to flagging overly aggressive coverage this season – and will more so after the pass interference controversy in Dallas last Sunday. No team has felt the pinch of those penalties like the Patriots, who have been flagged for defensive holding a league-high 14 times and whistled for pass interference nine times for a grand total of 217 yards against.

New England has a much-improved defense compared to past postseasons, but the one weakness has been against the pass. The Patriots allow 239.8 yards through the air per game – 17th in the NFL – and most of that damage has come on deep balls, with the stop unit giving up 36 passes of 25 yards or more, which sits fourth most in the league.

Baltimore has benefited from those ticky-tack passing penalties. The Ravens have received 15 pass interference calls against their opponents this season – most in the NFL – and have forced flags to fly on six defensive holding infractions, totaling 345 free yards from foes this season. Baltimore benefited from a 32-yard pass interference call in its win over the Steelers last weekend.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5, 39.5)

Panthers’ owning time of possession vs. Seahawks’ big spread

Carolina has gotten back to basics in recent weeks and clashes with a team cut from a similar cloth Saturday. Much like Seattle, the Panthers depend on a clock-controlling offense and a dominating defense to win games. It’s worked for Carolina, which has owned time of possession for an average time of 35:27 over the past three games.

The Panthers rushing attack is picking up speed at the right time. Running back Jonathan Stewart has rumbled for 524 yards in his last five games, and rushing mate DeAngelo Williams is working his way back from injury. Add to that ground game the crazy legs of dual-threat QB Cam Newton, and Carolina is sitting down to an all-you-can-eat clock buffet.

With the Panthers hogging the pigskin, it makes it very difficult for Seattle to put up the points necessary to cover this lofty spread. The Seahawks have a stingy defense but have been bullied for TOP in two of their losses this season, versus Dallas and at San Diego – a difference of 79:54/50:06 in those games. And, in its rare home losses, Seattle has been edged in TOP including a 37:24/22:36 count in last season’s loss to Arizona at home. Dallas and Arizona – the last two teams to win at CenturyLink – have out-rushed the Seahawks by a collective 301-183 yards.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-6, 52.5)

Cowboys’ RB DeMarco Murray vs. Packers’ weakness to the run

Green Bay’s stop unit has looked a little better than it really is in recent weeks. The Packers defense has been a concern all season and got a break at the end of the year against some troubled offenses, taking on punchless teams like Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Detroit. This team allows 119.9 yards on the ground per game – 23rd in the NFL – and that’s a number that should be bigger if not for opponents having to abandon the run in order to keep pace with the Packers explosive offense.

The Cheese Heads are allowing 4.3 yards per rush attempt and have been bowled over when trying to stop runners from moving the chains, with a 34.22 rushing first-down percentage on defense. They’ve given up an average of 7.2 first downs on runs and now face a Dallas offensive line that has paved the way for a record-setting year for its running back.

DeMarco Murray is a relentless runner that will battle for every yard. Behind that powerful o-line, and with the help off a dangerous passing game keeping linebackers honest, Murray led the league with 85 rushing first downs in the regular season, complementing his average of more than 115 yards rushing. The last time these teams met, a Week 15 shootout in Dallas, Murray exploded for 134 yards on 18 carries – 7.4 yards per run – and a touchdown.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-7, 54)

Colts’ tight end troubles vs. Broncos’ TE Julius Thomas

Thomas opened the season with a bang, reeling in seven catches for 104 yards and three touchdowns in a Week 1 showdown with Indianapolis. That was the beginning of a tough season versus tight ends for the Colts, who allowed a total of 954 yards and 10 touchdowns to those big targets.

Indianapolis allowed 44 yards on four catches to Cincinnati’s tight ends in the Wild Card Round, watched Titans TE Delanie Walker grab seven balls for 43 yards in Week 17, and got toasted for 90 yards and a score on seven receptions from Dallas TE Jason Witten in Week 16. And those are just recent examples.

Thomas has been slowed by an ankle injury late in the year. But limited action and the extra week off has helped the Broncos' big man in the middle heal up before this postseason game. Thomas has been a beast in the red zone as well as on third down – an area Indianapolis is used to controlling. He’s totaled 182 yards and an average of 13 yards per reception on third down, with four of his 12 touchdowns coming on these snaps.

 

[CNOTES]

Playoff Bye Analysis


January 9, 2015




By Sunday night, we'll know the identity of the NFL's final four. In breaking down the weekend's playoff action, there are a host of variables in play.

How hurt is Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers? How cold and intrusive will the weather be? Will there be more flags picked up, or will any egregious officiating errors come in other forms?

All those are obviously unknowns, but there is one x-factor that we know from recent history may play a major role. Simply put, if you rested last week, the odds are certainly in your favor to move on to a conference championship game.


OFF A BYE RECORDS (2007-2014)


Team SU Record (Home) ATS Record (Home)


Denver 7-1 (3-0) 7-1 (3-0)


Green Bay 7-1 (3-0) 7-0-1 (3-0)


New England 6-2 (3-0) 3-4-1 (0-2-1)


Seattle 3-5 (1-0) 3-4-1 (1-0)


Overall 23-9 (7-0) 20-9-3 (4-2-1)


Looking at the above table, the Packers, Broncos and Patriots have all been tremendous coming off their regular-season bye week, which should translate to success in this round since preparations are similar.

Even though defending champion Seattle is just 3-5 straight up and 3-4-1 against the spread in its last eight regular season games off the bye, the record is 2-1 with Russell Wilson at quarterback.

In the exact same situation during last season's Super Bowl run, the Seahawks held off New Orleans 23-15, surviving at home but failing to cover as 9-point favorites. That improved Wilson’s record to 3-1 with Seattle playing with a week of rest and you could say 4-1 if you include last year’s Super Bowl victory against Denver.

Not only are their bodies certain to be fresher than a Carolina team that held off Arizona at home, the time off also gave center Max Unger an opportunity to return to the fold for the first time in six games. A Pro Bowler the past two seasons, Unger has missed 10 games in 2014 due to a nasty high ankle sprain and a separate foot injury. He opened practice on Tuesday snapping balls to Russell Wilson and reported little rust.

"The bye week was huge," he told reporters this week. "Not having played for the last six weeks that was big not to be kind of thrown in there."

Considering the Seahawks will be facing off against a Carolina defense that was at its best down the stretch and has a formidable middle linebacker in Luke Kuechly trying to coax Wilson into miscues, regaining a familiar groove with Unger out there will provide a major boost.

"When Max plays, our numbers are a little bit better," Carroll told Seahawks.com. "It actually statistically shows up. We’re running the ball a little better and we (pass) protect a little better. That’s his guidance and his experience for the other guys up there. He’s an expert at recognizing looks and calls and directing what’s going on in there."

In Green Bay, the Packers have made no secret of the fact Rodgers hasn't been at 100 percent, so the week off they earned by handling Detroit and winning the NFC North in Week 17 has been invaluable. Rodgers has the most famous left calf in the world at the moment, injuring it against the Lions on Dec. 28. Reports are that he's suffered a slight tear, and even he doesn't know how the extent of the damage will affect him since he hasn't practiced, opting for rest and treatment in preparation for Sunday's game against the Cowboys.

Temperatures are expected to be in single-digits, too, so there's no telling whether that will prevent him from getting loose, but the bye week certainly improved his chances. It also doesn't hurt that the combination of him and head coach Mike McCarthy coming off bye weeks has been overwhelmingly positive. McCarthy took over in Green Bay in 2006 and has gone 8-1 straight up after a regular-season off week, 8-0-1 against the spread. That includes a couple of Brett Favre starts, but Rodgers is 6-1 SU in that situation. If he's closer to 90 percent healthy than 50 percent, as some have speculated, the bye week could be the difference, especially with Tony Romo and the Cowboys coming off such an emotionally taxing comeback win over the Lions.

The postseason picture in the AFC has pointed to a collision course between New England and Denver for months now, and bye week numbers would certainly back the inevitability of them vying for a trip to the Super Bowl next weekend. Over the last seven seasons, the Patriots and Broncos are a combined 13-3 SU coming off a bye. That those numbers even account for the presence of one Tim Tebow suggests that both organizations really know what they're doing with that extra juice in their legs.

John Fox is a perfect 4-0 in that situation during the regular season, winning three of those with Peyton Manning. That said, his best season in Carolina, that 12-4 campaign in 2008, ended in this exact situation when the Arizona Cardinals strolled into Charlotte and pasted the Panthers by 20, eventually making it to a Super Bowl where they fell just short against Pittsburgh. The Fox-led Broncos also fell short in 2012 in this situation, at home for an AFC Divisional playoff game coming off a bye, when Joe Flacco hit that miracle 70-yard strike to Jacoby Jones to force OT, eventually breaking hearts all over Denver. The Broncos rebounded last year at home against San Diego, going up 17-0 and holding on for a 24-17 win that failed to cover. Of the four teams we're looking at on this bye week angle, Denver would unquestionably be the weakest.

Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the mighty New England Patriots may ultimately be the strongest, especially since we're talking postseason. After being shocked by the Jets in 2011, losing 28-21 at home in a game where they were close to a double-digit favorite, the Pats have annihilated competition in this round. Facing Denver, Houston and Indianapolis, three opponents with varying approaches, New England has topped the 40-point mark each time. They've covered all three contests by a combined margin of 129-60, going over the posted total each time. Baltimore better be ready for an onslaught, since the Patriots look to be the healthiest team of any left in the playoff fight.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Saturday


January 9, 2015




Sunday


Wild Card Recap


Total players watched the ‘under’ go 2-1-1 in the Wild Card Round and some bettors may’ve cashed a winner on the Steelers-Ravens game, which was as low as 44 ½ on Saturday afternoon. The closing consensus number was 47 and the 30-17 final pushed for many. Outside of the Bengals-Colts ‘under’ ticket, you could argue that the three other games could’ve went either way if it wasn’t for a couple key turnovers. Including the last two postseasons, the ‘under’ is now 9-2-1 the last three Wild Card weekends.


Divisional Playoff History


Looking at the below table, you can see that the ‘under’ produced a 3-1 record in the Divisional Playoffs last season, which was a tad surprising considering the recent total trends in the second round. Prior to last year’s results, the ‘over’ had gone 11-1 (91.6%) the previous three seasons. During that span, 13 clubs scored at least 30 points or more and four have busted the 40-point plateau. Only one team, New England, was able to light up the scoreboard last season.


TOTAL HISTORY (2004-2013)
2004 (TOTAL 2-2) 2005 (UNDER 3-1)
Pittsburgh 20 N.Y. Jets 17 - OVER 35 Denver 27 New England 13 - UNDER 44
Atlanta 47 St. Louis 17 - OVER 48.5 Seattle 20 Washington 10 - UNDER 41
Philadelphia 27 Minnesota 14 - UNDER 47.5 Carolina 29 Chicago 21 - OVER 30.5
New England 20 Indianapolis 3 - UNDER 52.5 Pittsburgh 21 Indianapolis 18 - UNDER 47.5
2006 (TOTAL 2-2) 2007 (TOTAL 2-2)
New Orleans 27 Philadelphia 24 - OVER 49 Green Bay 42 Seattle 20 - OVER 44
Indianapolis 15 Baltimore 6 - UNDER 41.5 New England 31 Jacksonville 20 - UNDER 51.5
Chicago 27 Seattle 24 - OVER 37.5 San Diego 28 Indianapolis 24 - OVER 46.5
New England 24 San Diego 21 - UNDER 46.5 N.Y. Giants 21 Dallas 17 - UNDER 47
2008 (UNDER 3-1) 2009 (UNDER 3-1)
Arizona 33 Carolina 13 - UNDER 49.5 New Orleans 45 Arizona 14 - OVER 57
Baltimore 13 Tennessee 10 - UNDER 33.5 Indianapolis 20 Baltimore 3 - UNDER 44
Pittsburgh 35 San Diego 24 - OVER 38 Minnesota 34 Dallas 3 - UNDER 45.5
Philadelphia 23 N.Y. Giants 11 - UNDER 39 N.Y. Jets 17 San Diego 14 - UNDER 42.5
2010 (OVER 4-0) 2011 (OVER 3-1)
Pittsburgh 31 Baltimore 24 - OVER 37.5 New Orleans 32 San Francisco 36 - OVER 46.5
Green Bay 48 Atlanta 21 - OVER 43.5 Denver 10 New England 45 - OVER 50
Chicago 35 Seattle 21 - OVER 42.5 Houston 13 Baltimore 20 - UNDER 33
N.Y. Jets 28 New England 21 - OVER 45 N.Y. Giants 37 Green Bay 20 - OVER 54
2012 (OVER 4-0) 2013 (UNDER 3-1)
Baltimore 38 Denver 35 - OVER 44 New Orleans 15 Seattle 23 - UNDER 44
Green Bay 31 San Francisco 45 - OVER 45 Indianapolis 22 New England 43 - OVER 51
Seattle 28 Atlanta 30 - OVER 46 San Francisco 23 Carolina 10 - UNDER 41
Houston 28 New England 41 - OVER 50.5 San Diego 17 Denver 24 - UNDER 55
Saturday, Jan. 10


Similar to last week, I’m going to keep analyzing each total and offer up my quick handicap and prediction on all of the postseason matchups. I dropped a few cents ($20) last week and the bankroll is now down close to two bills ($190) on the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!


Baltimore at New England


This total opened at 49 and the number has dropped to 48 at most outfits. If you throw out the meaningless 17-9 loss at home to Buffalo in Week 17, the Patriots watched the ‘over’ go 5-2 at Foxboro this season. Outside of a 16-point performance in Week 3 vs. Oakland, the Patriots were an offensive machine in the six other games, averaging 39.8 points per game.


Then why is the total dropping? New England found itself a defense this season and that unit is holding opponents to 16.8 PPG at home. The secondary has great cover corners and they keep everything in front of them. If you score on New England, you'll certainly earn it.


Including last week’s 30-17 win at Pittsburgh, the Ravens have seen the ‘over’ go 6-3 in their road games. Since head coach John Harbaugh and quarterback Joe Flacco joined forces in Baltimore, they’ve gone 10-4 in the postseason and eight of those wins came outside of Maryland. The Ravens have shown the ability to score outside of Maryland, averaging 24.5 PPG in these games.


Coincidentally, three of those aforementioned games came at New England and they’ve all occurred in the last five postseasons. The Ravens have gone 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in those contests and the ‘under’ produced a 2-1 record. What sticks out about those games is that New England was held to 13, 23 and 14 points.


In my opinion, the only reason one would be betting Baltimore this Saturday is because of the head-to-head history in the playoffs and the Ravens’ knack to win on the road. Outside of that, I don’t see a strong argument for the Ravens. Give me a good win by this team? Despite getting three teams in the playoffs, it's fair to say the AFC North was average and playing the NFC South this season made everybody in that group look good.


A lot of pundits have made a fuss about New England’s recent 3-10 ATS run in the playoffs. I like numbers as much as anybody but did you know the Patriots are 3-0 both SU and ATS in their last three Divisional Playoff games at home with rest?


2014 - New England 43 Indianapolis 22
2013 - New England 41 Houston 28
2012 - New England 45 Denver 10


I’ll be the first one to tell you that head coach Bill Belichick definitely needs to win another Super Bowl because his recent playoff success has come up short. However, give him a week to prepare and he’ll light you up offensively. Earlier this season, the Patriots ripped the Colts 42-20 on the road with a week of rest. BYE ANALYSIS


Fearless Prediction: My best bet for this matchup is the OVER 27 Team Total for New England. I would probably ride the OVER in the game as well but I believe Baltimore, an underdog gaining public support, has no chance to win this game and will struggle against the improved defense of the Patriots.


Carolina at Seattle


Oddsmakers sent out an opener of 40 ½ and as of Friday, that number has dropped to 39 ½ at most shops. When you consider the last three regular season meetings between the pair, you could argue that this number should be lower.


2014 – Seattle 13 Carolina 9 UNDER 44.5
2013 – Seattle 12 Carolina 7 UNDER 44.5
2012 – Seattle 16 Carolina 12 UNDER 42.5


All three of the above meetings took place in Carolina and if you delve into the numbers further, you’ll notice that the Panthers received nine of their 28 points from their defense in these games. Accepting those facts, it has to make you wonder how Carolina is going to score against this dominating defense when it heads to Seattle.


It’s a very hard argument, which is why the oddsmakers have a team total of 14 ½ points for Carolina on Saturday. For total purposes, Seattle was a complete stalemate (8-8) this season, posting identical 4-4 marks both on the road and at home.

However, the Seahawks closed the season with a 5-1 run to the ‘under’ and its defense gave up an “insane” average of 6.5 PPG during this span.


During the regular season, there were six totals listed in the thirties and the ‘under’ went 4-1-1 in those contest. In last week’s Carolina-Arizona matchup, the total closed at 37 and the game went ‘over’ as the Panthers won 27-16. I liked the ‘under’ in that game and would play it again but when you have low totals, you have to accept the fact that turnovers and big plays will burn your ticket, which was the case last Saturday.


Another reason you could be hesitant to back the ‘under’ is Carolina’s road tendencies. The Panthers averaged more points on the road (24.1 PPG) than at home (19.2 PPG), which has helped the ‘over’ go 6-2.


Including last week’s win, the Panthers have only played two postseason games with QB Cam Newton under center and they’ve scored 10 and 27 points. The total went 1-1 in those contests.


Under the combination of QB Russell Wilson and head coach Pete Carroll, the Seahawks have watched the ‘under’ go 3-2 in the postseason. During this five-game span, only two contests were played at home and the ‘under’ went 2-0 as Seattle scored 23 points in each of those games while allowing 15 and 17 points.


Fearless Prediction: I got beat with Carolina’s team total last week and I still feel it was the right side. The Panthers showed some pride late in the season, especially on defense, but the offense is limited. I’m going to double-up for this game and play Carolina team total UNDER 14 ½ and the ‘under’ 39 ½ in the game. If you do the same, I would suggest that you don’t even watch the game. Make it a movie night and avoid the frustration, which I’m sure will be aplenty.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Divisional Tips


January 8, 2015




**Baltimore at New England**


-- As of Thursday, most betting shops had New England (12-4 straight up, 9-7 against the spread) installed as a seven-point favorite (at even money, Ravens +7 has a -120 price) with a total of 48. Gamblers can take the Ravens on the money line for a +250 return (risk $100 to win $250).


-- Baltimore (11-6 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) advanced to the AFC semifinals by going into Heinz Field and beating Pittsburgh and capturing a 30-17 victory as a three-point underdog. Joe Flacco threw for 259 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Steve Smith had five catches for 101 yards. Elvis Dumervil had a pair of sacks on Ben Roethlisberger, while Terrell Suggs had an amazing interception. Dumervil had 17 sacks during the regular season.


-- This is the fourth time in six years that these franchises will meet in the playoffs. During the 2009, 2011 and 2012 seasons, Baltimore had to go through Foxboro in the postseason. In the first meeting, Ray Rice led the Ravens to a 33-14 win as 3.5-point underdogs. Two seasons later, New England prevailed by a 23-20 count but Baltimore covered the spread as a seven-point 'dog. Two years ago, John Harbaugh's team outscored the Patriots 21-0 in the second half en route to a 28-13 win as an eight-point puppy.


-- In those three postseason encounters, Baltimore is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. Flacco has a 5/2 TD-INT ratio compared to Brady's 3/7 TD-INT ratio.


-- During the regular season, Flacco completed 62.0 percent of his throws for 3,986 yards with a 27/12 TD-INT ratio. Veteran Steve Smith hauled in 79 receptions for 1,065 yards and six TDs. Torrey Smith is the speedster who can stretch the field, and he brought down 49 catches for 767 yards and 11 TDs.


-- Baltimore RB Justin Forsett enjoyed a breakout year, rushing for 1,266 yards and eight TDs while averaging 5.4 yards per carry. However, he only ran for 40 yards on 16 carries against the Steelers last week. In fact, Forsett has rushed for more than 71 yards just once in the last five games.


-- Baltimore has won outright in three straight games as a road underdog, including scalps at New Orleans and at Miami before disposing of Pittsburgh. For the year, the Ravens are 3-2 both SU and ATS in five games as road 'dogs.


-- New England went 3-2 ATS in five games as a single-digit home favorite during the regular season. However, that stat should really be 3-1 ATS because the Pats lost outright to Buffalo as four-point home favorites in the regular-season finale when they rested many starters.


-- Leading into the Buffalo game, New England had won 10 of its last 11 games after a 2-2 start had some idiots implying that Brady was washed up and the Patriots' window to win another Super Bowl had closed. The only defeat in that 11-game stretch was a 26-21 setback at Green Bay.


-- Brady had another incredible year, connecting on 64.1 percent of his passes for 4,109 yards with a 33/9 TD-INT ratio. After the 41-14 loss at Kansas City on Monday Night Football that brought out all the Brady haters, the Michigan product responded by throwing 18 TDs compared to only one interception in the next five contests. The last was against Denver and Brady outplayed Peyton Manning yet again in a 43-21 win as a three-point home underdog.


-- For the first time at this point in the season in a long time, Pro-Bowl TE Rob Gronkowski is healthy and New England opponents are paying for it. Gronkowski started only 10 games and played in 15, recording 82 receptions for 1,124 yards and 12 TDs. Julian Edelman had 92 catches for 972 yards and four TDs.


-- Baltimore starting DT Tim Jernigan and starting OT Eugene Munroe are both 'questionable' with injuries.


-- The 'over' is 9-7 overall for the Pats, 5-3 in their home games. However, they have seen the 'under' go 5-1 in their last six games (regardless of the venue).


-- The 'under' is 9-7-1 overall for the Ravens, 4-0-1 in their last five games. But they have seen the 'over' cash at a 5-3-1 clip in their nine road assignments.


-- Kickoff is scheduled for Saturday at 4:35 p.m. Eastern on NBC.


**Carolina at Seattle**


-- As of Thursday, most spots had Seattle (12-4 SU, 9-6-1ATS) favored by 11 with a total of 39.5 or 40. The Panthers are available for a lucrative +450 return at the Westgate SuperBook if they can win outright.


-- Carolina (8-8-1 SU, 9-8 ATS) has caught fire at just the right time, winning five in a row to make the NFC semifinals. The Panthers were an abysmal 3-8-1 going into a Dec. 7 game at New Orleans. They came alive at the Superdome, however, where they always seem to play well. Ron Rivera's team blasted the Saints 41-10 as an 8.5-point underdog. Carolina was sloppy but stayed alive in non-covering home wins over Tampa Bay (19-17) and Cleveland (17-13) to set up a de-facto NFC South title game at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta on Dec. 28.


-- Carolina went into The ATL and dealt out woodshed treatment in the form of a 34-3 clubbing. The Panthers won outright as 2.5-point underdogs behind a defense that held the Falcons to a season-low in points. The Carolina defense sacked Matt Ryan six times and intercepted him twice, including a 31-yard pick-six from veteran safety Roman Harper that silenced the Ga. Dome crowd with 4:18 left in the second quarter. Cam Newton ran for a touchdown and threw for another and didn't commit a turnover.


-- Carolina shook off a 14-13 halftime deficit last week to knock off Arizona 27-16 as a 5.5-point home 'chalk.' Jonathan Stewart rushed 24 times for 123 yards and one TD, while Newton threw for 198 yards and two TDs. The Carolina defense gave up only 78 yards of total offense and forced three turnovers. Charles Johnson had a pair of sacks.


-- Seattle has won six in a row while compiling a 5-0-1 spread record. All six victories have come by double-digit margins, including a 20-6 home win over St. Louis as an 11-point 'chalk' in the regular-season finale. Defense was the story for the 'Hawks, who forced three turnovers and sacked Shaun Hill four times. Bruce Irvin had five tackles, one sack and a 49-yard pick-six which ultimately provided Seattle backers with the spread cover.


-- Seattle leads the NFL in rushing offense thanks to the presence of Marshawn Lynch, who has run for 1,306 yards and 13 TDs while averaging 4.7 YPC.


-- Seattle QB Russell Wilson contributes to the team's rushing stats as well. He has rushed for 849 yards and six TDs, averaging 7.2 YPC. Wilson has completed 63.1 percent of his passes for 3,475 yards with a 20/7 TD-INT ratio.


-- Wilson's favorite target is WR Doug Baldwin, who has 66 receptions for 825 yards and three TDs. Lynch has caught 37 balls for 367 yards and four more scores.


-- Newton has completed 58.5 percent of his throws for 3,127 yards with an 18/12 TD-INT ratio. He missed two games in the regular season. Newton has also rushed for 539 yards and five TDs while averaging 5.2 YPC.


-- Carolina rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin had a breakout campaign, producing 73 catches for 1,008 yards and nine TDs. Veteran TE Greg Olsen had 84 receptions for 1,008 yards and six TDs during the regular season.


-- Carolina will be without starting DT Star Lotulelei due to a foot injury. Lotulelei started 13 games during the regular season, producing 18 solo tackles, seven assists and two sacks. WR Philly Brown is 'questionable' with a shoulder injury and safety Thomas DeCoud is a question mark due to a hamstring ailment. DeCoud started 11 games in the regular season, tallying 34 solo tackles, 16 assists and one interception. Brown has played 13 games, starting three, and had 21 catches for 296 yards and a pair of TDs.


-- Carolina owns a 6-5 spread record with three outright wins in 11 games as an underdog this season. This is the Panthers' first situation as double-digit 'dogs. Their biggest 'dog spot came in the win at New Orleans when they were catching 8.5 points.


-- Seattle has won seven of its eight home games, posting a 4-4 spread record. The Seahawks have been double-digit home 'chalk' four times, going 1-2-1 versus the number.


-- The 'under' is on a 5-1 run for the Seahawks, who have the NFL's top-ranked scoring defense (15.9 PPG). They are also No. 1 in total defense and pass defense. However, totals have been a wash for Seattle overall (8-8) and in its home games (4-4). The Seahawks' games have averaged a combined score of 40.5 PPG.


-- The 'under' is 3-1 in Carolina's last four games (regardless of the venue), but the 'over' has cashed at a 6-2 clip in its eight road assignments.


-- FOX will have the telecast at 8:15 p.m. Eastern.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Divisional Round Playoffs

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7, 47.5)

Ravens’ ability to draw flags vs. Patriots’ penalty prone secondary

Referees have had a hair trigger when it comes to flagging overly aggressive coverage this season – and will more so after the pass interference controversy in Dallas last Sunday. No team has felt the pinch of those penalties like the Patriots, who have been flagged for defensive holding a league-high 14 times and whistled for pass interference nine times for a grand total of 217 yards against.

New England has a much-improved defense compared to past postseasons, but the one weakness has been against the pass. The Patriots allow 239.8 yards through the air per game – 17th in the NFL – and most of that damage has come on deep balls, with the stop unit giving up 36 passes of 25 yards or more, which sits fourth most in the league.

Baltimore has benefited from those ticky-tack passing penalties. The Ravens have received 15 pass interference calls against their opponents this season – most in the NFL – and have forced flags to fly on six defensive holding infractions, totaling 345 free yards from foes this season. Baltimore benefited from a 32-yard pass interference call in its win over the Steelers last weekend.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5, 39.5)

Panthers’ owning time of possession vs. Seahawks’ big spread

Carolina has gotten back to basics in recent weeks and clashes with a team cut from a similar cloth Saturday. Much like Seattle, the Panthers depend on a clock-controlling offense and a dominating defense to win games. It’s worked for Carolina, which has owned time of possession for an average time of 35:27 over the past three games.

The Panthers rushing attack is picking up speed at the right time. Running back Jonathan Stewart has rumbled for 524 yards in his last five games, and rushing mate DeAngelo Williams is working his way back from injury. Add to that ground game the crazy legs of dual-threat QB Cam Newton, and Carolina is sitting down to an all-you-can-eat clock buffet.

With the Panthers hogging the pigskin, it makes it very difficult for Seattle to put up the points necessary to cover this lofty spread. The Seahawks have a stingy defense but have been bullied for TOP in two of their losses this season, versus Dallas and at San Diego – a difference of 79:54/50:06 in those games. And, in its rare home losses, Seattle has been edged in TOP including a 37:24/22:36 count in last season’s loss to Arizona at home. Dallas and Arizona – the last two teams to win at CenturyLink – have out-rushed the Seahawks by a collective 301-183 yards.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-6, 52.5)

Cowboys’ RB DeMarco Murray vs. Packers’ weakness to the run

Green Bay’s stop unit has looked a little better than it really is in recent weeks. The Packers defense has been a concern all season and got a break at the end of the year against some troubled offenses, taking on punchless teams like Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Detroit. This team allows 119.9 yards on the ground per game – 23rd in the NFL – and that’s a number that should be bigger if not for opponents having to abandon the run in order to keep pace with the Packers explosive offense.

The Cheese Heads are allowing 4.3 yards per rush attempt and have been bowled over when trying to stop runners from moving the chains, with a 34.22 rushing first-down percentage on defense. They’ve given up an average of 7.2 first downs on runs and now face a Dallas offensive line that has paved the way for a record-setting year for its running back.

DeMarco Murray is a relentless runner that will battle for every yard. Behind that powerful o-line, and with the help off a dangerous passing game keeping linebackers honest, Murray led the league with 85 rushing first downs in the regular season, complementing his average of more than 115 yards rushing. The last time these teams met, a Week 15 shootout in Dallas, Murray exploded for 134 yards on 18 carries – 7.4 yards per run – and a touchdown.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-7, 54)

Colts’ tight end troubles vs. Broncos’ TE Julius Thomas

Thomas opened the season with a bang, reeling in seven catches for 104 yards and three touchdowns in a Week 1 showdown with Indianapolis. That was the beginning of a tough season versus tight ends for the Colts, who allowed a total of 954 yards and 10 touchdowns to those big targets.

Indianapolis allowed 44 yards on four catches to Cincinnati’s tight ends in the Wild Card Round, watched Titans TE Delanie Walker grab seven balls for 43 yards in Week 17, and got toasted for 90 yards and a score on seven receptions from Dallas TE Jason Witten in Week 16. And those are just recent examples.

Thomas has been slowed by an ankle injury late in the year. But limited action and the extra week off has helped the Broncos' big man in the middle heal up before this postseason game. Thomas has been a beast in the red zone as well as on third down – an area Indianapolis is used to controlling. He’s totaled 182 yards and an average of 13 yards per reception on third down, with four of his 12 touchdowns coming on these snaps.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Divisional Playoffs: Keys to all four games

Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at New England Patriots (12-4)

Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET, at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass. - TV: NBC

*TV announcers: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya

*Keys to the game: Baltimore is not unnerved by a stroll into the House That Brady Built, winning two of the previous three playoff meetings, including 28-13 in the AFC Championship game in 2013. There are two big reasons for genuine bravado from the Ravens: QB Joe Flacco's 14 playoff starts include a 7-0 record on the road, and Baltimore defensive coordinator Dean Pees has experience deconstructing Tom Brady's offense.

The Ravens are expecting LT Eugene Monroe back in the lineup -- he didn't play last week due to an ankle injury -- solidifying an offensive line that grasps the plan is to win with the deep ball. Flacco and 35-year-old lead receiver Steve Smith connected five times in the wild-card win, as Baltimore scrapes for positive gains in the running game. But Smith will likely see a lot of All-Pro CB Darrelle Revis, forcing Flacco to look elsewhere.

New England had two weeks to ready a game plan, anticipating a 3-4 defense, and TE Rob Gronkowski will be at the center of it all. Gronkowski will see bracket coverage and the Ravens used SS Darian Stewart to cut off deep routes last week. The risk for the Ravens is exposing CB Lardarius Webb man-up with WR Julian Edelman. Webb played every snap at Pittsburgh, but allowed nine catches in 12 targets and a passer rating of 129.2.

Rookie ILB C.J. Mosley joined Ray Lewis as the only Ravens rookies to lead the team in tackles and he owns a lot of land inside the tackles. Critical for the Ravens will be folding the pocket around Brady. DE Terrell Suggs has 12 career playoff sacks and with two last week, Elvis Dumervil has 19 in 17 games this season.

*Matchup to watch - Ravens TE Owen Daniels vs. Patriots LB Jamie Collins: Daniels averaged 17.5 yards per catch at Pittsburgh and is a go-to look on third downs. The Patriots have gone zone-heavy against the Ravens in the past to limit Flacco's grenade launcher.

*Player spotlight - Patriots NT Vince Wilfork: Recent film of the Ravens' offensive line showed flaws aplenty. With Monroe back, that group gets stronger, but C Jeremy Zuttah was manhandled at Pittsburgh and will be tested constantly by defensive coordinator Matt Patricia.

*Fast facts: Flacco is 10-4 in the playoffs and has gone 166 pass attempts without an interception in the postseason. ... Bill Belichick has 19 career playoff wins, one shy of the NFL record (Don Shula, 20). ... The Patriots have won 16 of their past 17 home games.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

The Ravens are capable of the upset with more out of their running game and consistent heat on Brady, but the Patriots historically over-adjust to correct exposed flaws and have earned the favorites label with their Hall of Fame QB-coach combo. Brady delivers in the big spots to push New England to the conference title game.

*Our pick: Patriots 25-21


Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) at Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, at CenturyLink Field, Seattle - TV: FOX

*TV announcers: Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch, Pam Oliver

*Keys to the game: The Panthers have the offensive game plan suited to keeping the game close, and the history to back that belief up. The teams have meet each of the past three seasons in Carolina, with the Seahawks winning all three, but only by an average of 4.3 points in low-scoring defensive battles.

Carolina's ground game is the most formidable it has been all season with RB Jonathan Stewart and QB Cam Newton healthy. If the Panthers can run between the tackles and suck up time of possession, they know the Seahawks don't score a ton of points -- as long as Newton steers clear of mistakes downfield. In the three previous meetings, he has averaged 146 yards while completing 68 percent of his pass attempts. He has also been sacked a combined 13 times. Translation: he will throw high percentage passes in an attempt to keep the chains moving and steer clear of the Legion of Boom.

The Seahawks are not exotic offensively. RB Russell Wilson will run the zone read with RB Marshawn Lynch against a middle of the pack run defense. The onus is on gap integrity among Carolina's front seven to prevent big plays that could prove backbreaking in a tight contest. Wilson lacks the outside threats to push the ball vertically, but is very dangerous when escaping the pocket and looking for WR Doug Baldwin or one of several solid tight ends on extended plays.

*Matchup to watch - Panthers DTs Colin Cole and Kawaan Short vs. Seahawks C Max Unger: Unger returns after missing six games and handles all the line calls. With former first-round pick Star Lotulelei (broken foot) out, Cole gets the nod next to Short. The interior defensive line is pivotal for keeping the Panthers' speedy linebackers free of blocks and the Panthers have limited Lynch to a combined 105 yards the past two meetings.

*Player spotlight - Panthers DE Charles Johnson: After posting no sacks through four games this season, Johnson has 10.5 over his past 13 and will be working against vulnerable rookie RT Justin Britt.

*Fast facts: Stewart is from Lacy, Wash., about one hour south of Seattle, and chose the University of Oregon over the University of Washington, among others. ... Seattle is attempting to become the first team since the 2005 Patriots to win a playoff game the year after winning the Super Bowl.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

The Panthers have won five straight, are playing with house money and can absolutely take this game down to the wire. Then again, Newton has never played in Seattle, and certainly not in the postseason, where the Seahawks feed off their environment and regularly turn first-half dogfights into comfortable victory marches.

*Our pick: Seahawks 23-16


Dallas Cowboys (13-4) at Green Bay Packers (12-4)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, at Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wis. - TV: FOX

*TV announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews.

*Keys to the game: Cowboys QB Tony Romo was sacked a season-high six times by the Lions last week. The Packers can bring some of the same poison, disguising blitzes by sliding around chess pieces at linebacker -- Clay Matthews from outside to the middle and Julius Peppers from down to stand-up rusher.

The heavy pressure exposed the Dallas offensive line thought to be largely inpenetrable and calls into question Romo's responsivness to pre-snap looks that imply the heat will be high.

Seeing the blitz coming and beating it -- either with audibles into a stellar running game or by attacking one-on-one matchups on the perimeter -- could make or break the Cowboys in a chilly venue where every mistake will be amplified. The Cowboys are running the ball 14 percent more -- 49.3 percent in 17 games -- than they did last season when these teams met, but some are concerned RB DeMarco Murray might be wearing down after 472 total touches, including 22 last week vs. Detroit.

The Packers should have plenty of pep in the 15-degree friendly confines of Lambeau after a bye last week that spared QB Aaron Rodgers 10 days of practice on his strained calf. Mobility might not be 100 percent or at training camp levels, but Rodgers is expected to be ready to roll.

That isn't great news for the Cowboys, who are lacking a defined lead cornerback -- Brandon Carr has struggled mightily and Orlando Scandrick gets by more on guts than gifts -- and will likely utilize a soft zone to keep Rodgers from going over the top to talented WRs Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb.

Green Bay trusts RB Eddie Lacy, but as with Murray (five fumbles lost), his ball security is not a given. The big back can bulldoze for yards and expose Dallas inside, where SS Barry Church is no sure thing.

*Matchup to watch – Cowboys special teams vs. Packers special teams: Packers CB Micah Hyde has four return touchdowns in his career, including two punt return scores this season. Cowboys PK Dan Bailey made 25 of 29 field goal attempts this season but missed one last week. The Packers have had seven total kicks blocked this season.

*Player spotlight – Packers TE Richard Rodgers: Out of the blue, Rodgers had five of his 20 receptions this season in the Week 17 finale when the Lions doubled both outside receivers. Against the Cover-2 scheme, Aaron Rodgers will look to slot receiver Cobb and rookie TE Rodgers.

*Fast facts: This is the first playoff game pitting an 8-0 home team (Green Bay) against a team that went 8-0 on the road (Dallas). ... With a win, the Cowboys would reach a NFL-record-tying 15th NFC Championship game (San Francisco). ... On a combined 154 targets, Cowboys WRs Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley have zero drops. ... Cowboys WR Dez Bryant (16) and Packers WR Jordy Nelson (13) were first and second in the NFL in touchdown catches. ... The Packers outscored opponents 151-58 in the first quarter this season. ... The Packers led the NFL with a plus-14 turnover margin.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

If the Packers get out to a lead, the Cowboys are capable of climbing out of the danger zone against most teams, but Green Bay's offensive talent exceeds that of most Dallas opponents. With two excellent quarterbacks and marginal defenses, the outcome could rest on a few key plays in the second half. Romo leads the NFL with 27 game-winning drives since 2006, but only one -- last week -- in the playoffs.

*Our pick: Packers 36-29


Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at Denver Broncos (12-4)

Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET, at Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver - TV: CBS

*TV announcers: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson

*Keys to the game: The Colts scored a touchdown on their opening possession last week for the first time all season. Indianapolis' offense has built a reputation for starting slow before staging furious rallies, similar to the script from meetings against Denver each of the past two seasons. QB Andrew Luck believes his growth is instrumental in avoiding turnovers and early deficits, which could prove lethal on the road against Peyton Manning & Co.

Expect RB Dan Herron to get plenty of early touches as the Colts attempt to establish possession and trade punches with Denver's defense, rather than taking them from Manning. Manning did not look himself down the stretch as the Broncos morphed into a run-heavy unit. With a bye week, all eyes will be on Manning's arm strength at the outset.

The Colts lack a dynamic pass rusher to consistently pressure the pocket, and Manning has far more weapons than Indianapolis can contend with if Manning is close to 100 percent. The key for the Colts' undersized front seven is to contain RB C.J. Anderson. If he's effective early and setting up play-action, Denver will have little trouble driving into the red zone.

*Matchup to watch - Colts SS Mike Adams vs. Manning: Teammates last season, Adams has a strong respect for Manning's preparation and intelligence. Knowing your opponent is one thing, stopping him is another, and Adams will play a key role in the cat and mouse pre-snap game.

*Player spotlight - Colts RB Daniel "Boom" Herron: Trent Richardson should see more action following an illness that limited him last week, but Herron has provided a versatile threat in the backfield. He rushed for a game-high 56 yards on 12 carries last week and caught a game-high 10 passes for another 85 yards.

*Fast facts: In his first four postseason games, Luck has thrown more passes (184) and thrown for more yards (1,438) than any other player in league history, besting Dan Fouts (182) and Kurt Warner (1,428) who held the previous records. ... Manning is the NFL's all-time playoff leader with 6,589 passing yards and is fourth with 37 TD passes.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

Manning has notoriously struggled in cold-weather games, but with temperatures expected near 40, a bye week to rest his 38-year-old body and a solid ground game chipping away at an undersized front seven, he puts the pressure on Luck early and Denver's defense capitalizes with multiple turnovers.

*Our pick: Broncos 30-23

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel

Carolina at Seattle
The Panthers head to Seattle on Saturday to face the Seahawks (7-1 SU at home) and come into the contest with a 1-4 ATS record in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Seattle is the pick (-10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Seahawks favored by 14. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10 1/2). Here are all of this week's NFL picks.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 10

Game 111-112: Baltimore at New England (4:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 138.491; New England 141.995
Dunkel Line: New England by 3 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: New England by 7; 47
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+7); Under

Game 113-114: Carolina at Seattle (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 132.420; Seattle 146.661
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 14; 44
Vegas Line: Seattle by 10 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10 1/2); Over


SUNDAY, JANUARY 11

Game 117-118: Dallas at Green Bay (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 140.848; Green Bay 142.810
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 2; 56
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 6 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+6 1/2); Over

Game 119-120: Indianapolis at Denver (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 135.234; Denver 144.892
Dunkel Line: Denver by 9 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Denver by 7; 54
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-7); Under




NFL
Long Sheet

Division Round

Saturday, January 10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (11 - 6) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 4) - 1/10/2015, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 166-127 ATS (+26.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 105-74 ATS (+23.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 73-47 ATS (+21.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-1 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (8 - 8 - 1) at SEATTLE (12 - 4) - 1/10/2015, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 11

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DALLAS (13 - 4) at GREEN BAY (12 - 4) - 1/11/2015, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
GREEN BAY is 84-58 ATS (+20.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 62-37 ATS (+21.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
DALLAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (12 - 5) at DENVER (12 - 4) - 1/11/2015, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
DENVER is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
DENVER is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 32-18 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 32-18 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Short Sheet

Division Round

Sat, Jan. 10

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots, 4:35 ET

Baltimore
1-4 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins
12-3 UNDER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game
44-23 UNDER after scoring 30 points or more last game
57-36 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive wins

New England
10-2 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5
37-19 ATS after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game
7-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses


Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks, 8:15 ET

Carolina
2-6 ATS after playing a game at home
11-2 UNDER after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game
35-18 UNDER after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games

Seattle
19-7 ATS in home games
19-7 ATS against conference opponents
13-5 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
14-4 UNDER in home games after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games


Sun, Jan. 11

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers, 1:00 ET

Dallas
8-22 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games
6-0 OVER in road games against conference opponents
14-4 OVER in road games after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game

Green Bay
57-36 ATS in home games off 1 or more straight overs
7-1 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4 games
6-0 OVER in home games against conference opponents
7-1 OVER after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread


Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos, 4:40 ET

Indianapolis
17-7 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
17-8 ATS against conference opponents
22-7 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points
27-13 OVER as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points

Denver
19-34 ATS off a home win against a division rival
89-57 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
15-5 OVER off 1 or more straight overs




NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Division Round

Ravens (11-6) @ Patriots (12-4)-- Since 2001, Patriots are 1-2 in home playoff games vs Baltimore, 11-1 against everyone else; Pats blasted Ravens 41-7 in Week 16 LY, which helped end Ravens' season. Flacco has seven road playoff wins, more than anyone else in NFL history. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 10-3 vs spread this season; AFC East home favorites are 4-7. Last three years, Patriots scored 40+ points in winning its first playoff game. NE won 10 of last 12 games overall, losing last game when Brady sat out second half, Gronkowski didn't play; they're 2-3 as home favorites. Baltimore is 5-4 on road this year- they won four of last five, are 3-1 vs spread as an underdog. Five of last six Patriot games stayed under total.

Panthers (8-8-1) @ Seahawks (12-4)-- Remember that last time defending champ won a playoff game the next year was 2005. Carolina won its last five games, allowing average of 11.8 ppg, after 1-8-1 midseason skid. Panthers are 5-6 as underdogs, 4-4 away from home. Seattle (-5) won 13-9 at Carolina in Week 7, third year in row they won slugfest vs Panthers (16-12/21-7/13-9), all in Charlotte. In Week 7 games, teams had no TDs, three FGs on five red zone drives. Seattle won its last six games overall (5-0-1 vs spread); they didn't allow TD in last two games but were facing backup QB in both games- they're 6-2 overall vs Carolina, 3-0 at home. Teams have similar mobile QBs. Carolina has had rough few weeks, with coach Rivera's house having fire early Monday morning this week.

Cowboys (13-4) @ Packers (12-4)-- Rodgers has partial tear in calf, hasn't practiced lot this week (if at all), but is expected to play. Packers are 8-0 at home, Dallas 8-0 on road- six of last seven teams that went 8-0 on road make it to the Super Bowl. Green Bay won last three series games, winning 37-36 in Dallas LY, when Pack trailed 26-3 at halftime. Packers are 1-3 in playoff games since winning Super Bowl, with two of three losses at home; they covered six of last seven at home overall. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 9-6 vs spread; NFC East road underdogs are 6-7. Romo is from Wisconsin; when he was senior in HS, was runner-up to Caron Butler for state's HS Athlete of Year. Cowboys covered four of five as an underdog this season.

Colts (12-5) @ Broncos (12-4)-- Denver (-7.5) beat Colts 31-24 in season opener, game they led 24-7 at half; Broncos are 2-2 in playoffs in Manning era, 2-1 home- they're 4-4 as home favorite this year. Indy is 3-6 in playoff games since winning Super Bowl, 0-2 on road in Luck era, losing 24-9/43-22 last two years. Colts had won six in row in series before Week 1 loss, but Manning played for Indy in five of those six- Colts' last three losses are by 35-22-17 points. Patriots ran for 244 yards vs Indy, would expect similar approach from Denver, which ran ball for 149.3 ypg over last six games. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 6-7 vs spread; AFC West home favorites are 8-5. Five of last six Denver home games still went over total.




NFL

Division Round

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, January 10

4:35 PM
BALTIMORE vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Baltimore is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against New England
New England is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
New England is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Baltimore

8:15 PM
CAROLINA vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games on the road
Carolina is 2-4-1 SU in its last 7 games ,on the road
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


Sunday, January 11

1:05 PM
DALLAS vs. GREEN BAY
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Green Bay's last 16 games when playing Dallas
Green Bay is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing Dallas

4:40 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. DENVER
Indianapolis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Denver
Indianapolis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Denver's last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Division Round


Cowboys' Murray carving up lower tier rushing defenses

If you're looking for one of the biggest mismatches in the NFL's Divisional Round, a game changer in Dallas-Green Bay could come from the Cowboys' rushing attack.

In five games against defenses that ranked in the bottom 10 at stopping the run this season, Cowboys' running back DeMarco Murray averaged 133 yards per game and 5.4 yards/carry. Dallas backers will be pleased to be reminded that the Packers rushing defense finished the year at 23rd overall.

Sportsbook.ag has the Over/Under for Murray's rushing yards for the contest at 99.5.


Head official for IND-DEN could be trouble for Colts

Veteran referee Bill Leavy will serve as the head official for Indianapolis' Divisional Round clash with Denver, something Colts backers won't be thrilled with.

Since Andrew Luck took over the reigns under center, the Colts are 0-3 straight-up in games with Leavy in charge, including their embarrassing 42-7 loss to Dallas just over two weeks ago. Indianapolis is coming off of a 26-10 victory over Cincinnati in Wild Card weekend while Peyton Manning and the Broncos are fully rested after earning a first round bye.

As of 12:30 p.m. EST Friday, Indianapolis was listed as 7-point road dogs for the game.


Panthers posting ugly offensive numbers vs. Seattle

In the wake of the Carolina Panthers' victory over the Arizona Cardinals on Wild Card weekend in the NFL, the stage is set for Cam Newton and company to take on the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Divisional Round.

According to recent history, however, that could spell trouble for the Carolina. Both squads have played each other in each of the last three years ahead of the contest, but the Panthers have only managed to muster one offensive touchdown in that span while averaging just nine points per game.

Oddsmakers currently have Seattle as 10.5-point faves for the matchup.


Eight loss teams winless in Divisional Round since 2004

Carolina (7-8-1 in the regular season) is the seventh team since 2002 to make the playoffs with eight losses. Of those seven teams, the Panthers are the sixth squad to win in the Wild Card round after topping the Ryan Lindley-led Arizona Cardinals 27-16.

The success ended there, however. The other five aforementioned clubs went 0-5 straight-up in the divisional round with an average loss of 20 points. All five (the 2011 Broncos, 2010 Seahawks, 2008 Chargers, and the 2004 Vikings and Rams) lost by at least 11 points in those games.

Cam Newton and company will try and buck that trend when they visit the Seattle Seahawks and the infamous 12th man at CenturyLink Field Saturday. The Panthers are presently listed as +10.5 underdogs for the affair.


Ravens have had Pats' number at Foxboro in playoffs

It's no secret how dominant the New England Patriots have been in the playoffs at home with Tom Brady under center, but one team has been the Pats' postseason kryptonite in Foxborough behind the Michigan product: the Baltimore Ravens.

New England is 12-3 straight-up in postseason games played in Massachusetts with Brady calling the shots, but two of those losses have come at the hands of Baltimore. The Ravens topped the Patriots 33-14 in 2009 and 28-13 in 2012 en route to hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

The Ravens will travel to Foxborough once again Saturday in Divisional Round action. The majority of books opened New England as 7.5-point faves, but that's since been bet down to -7.


Seahawks have been a great playoff bet with Wilson

Since entering the league in 2012, Russell Wilson has been clutch come playoff time both for his team and Seahawks spread backers alike.

The 26-year-old is 4-1 straight-up and against the spread in his first five postseason appearances. After earning a first round bye, Wilson and the 'Hawks are back in action yet again on Saturday versus Carolina.

Seattle is listed as 10.5-point home favorites for the game. At the time of writing, the total was sitting at 39.5.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's Divisional Tips


January 10, 2015


Cowboys at Packers (-5 ½, 52) – 1:00 PM EST – FOX


The last time Dallas traveled to Lambeau Field in the postseason, it was the famed Ice Bowl of 1967 in which the Packers won in the final seconds en route to capturing the first ever Super Bowl title. The weather won’t be as frigid as that day (-13 at kickoff), but game temperatures are expected to be in the low 20’s on Sunday as the Packers hope the slight tear in Aaron Rodgers’ left calf holds up.


Rodgers suffered the injury throwing a touchdown pass in the Week 17 home victory over the Lions to wrap up the NFC North title, finishing the regular season with a perfect 8-0 record at Lambeau Field. The Packers eclipsed the 30-point mark in seven of eight home wins, including a 30-20 win against Detroit for the franchise’s fourth straight division championship. Green Bay helped out backers when playing at home by compiling a 6-1-1 ATS record, with the lone ATS loss coming to Atlanta in Week 14 as heavy 13 ½-point favorites.


The Cowboys captured the NFC East title with a 12-4 record, which included the league’s only unbeaten road mark at 8-0. Dallas erased a 14-0 deficit in last Sunday’s 24-20 victory in the Wild Card round over Detroit for the franchise’s second postseason win since 1997. The Cowboys failed to cover as six-point favorites, but Tony Romo connected with Terrance Williams for an eight-yard touchdown in the final minutes to give Dallas the lead for good.


These teams didn’t meet up this season, but played one of the most entertaining games of the 2013 campaign. The Cowboys built a 26-3 lead over the Packers at Cowboys Stadium last December, but Green Bay rallied to stun Dallas, 37-36 as four-point underdogs. Rodgers sat out with a collarbone injury, as Matt Flynn engineered the comeback with four touchdown passes, while Eddie Lacy’s one-yard touchdown plunge in the final two minutes lifted Green Bay.


Since Green Bay won Super Bowl XLV over Pittsburgh four years ago, the Packers have lost three of their past four playoff games, including home contests to San Francisco (2013) and the N.Y. Giants (2011). The last time the Cowboys won a road postseason contest came way back in 1992 at Candlestick Park against the 49ers, the first of title of the 1990’s dynasty for Dallas.


VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson gives his spin on this matchup, “All eyes will be on Rodgers as the potential MVP battles a calf injury. It was revealed that there is a tear in addition to the strain on the muscle and while he will certainly suit up and play he has not been able to practice significantly. Expect some changes in the game plan for the Packers with Lacy likely taking on a bigger role and enabling quick throws under pressure being a priority. Rodgers is unquestionably considered one of the top players in the NFL, but his playoff track record since the Super Bowl XLV win has been less impressive.”


The Packers opened up as 6 ½-point home favorites, but that number has dipped to 5 ½ at most spots with Rodgers’ injury. The total is hovering between 51 ½ and 52 ½, as the Packers are 5-3 to the ‘over’ on totals above 50, while the Cowboys are 3-2 to the ‘over’ in game with totals of 50 or higher.


Colts at Broncos (-7, 54) – 4:40 PM EST – CBS


The winner of this game heads to New England next Sunday for the AFC Championship, as both teams lost to the Patriots this season. First things first is to get through the divisional round, as the Colts began the 2014 campaign at Denver and fell to the Broncos, 31-24. Now, Andrew Luck looks for his first road win in the postseason, trying to knock off a former Colts’ legend in Peyton Manning.


The Broncos finished the regular season at 12-4 for their fourth straight AFC West championship, as two of those defeats came to the top seeds in each conference (New England and Seattle). Denver was one of three playoff teams to put together a perfect 8-0 record at home, but John Fox’s team covered only four times at Sports Authority Field. Only two home wins came against postseason clubs (Arizona and Indianapolis), while topping the 31-point mark in six of those home victories.


The Colts advanced to the divisional round for the second straight season by eliminating the Bengals, 26-10 in the Wild Card round as 3 ½-point favorites. Luck threw for 376 yards, including a 20-yard touchdown strike to Donte Moncrief in the third quarter to put the game out of reach. Indianapolis reached the end zone just twice, while kicking four field goals to finish its home schedule at 7-2.


Back in the seven-point victory in Week 1, the Broncos jumped out to a 24-0 advantage in the second quarter behind three Manning touchdown passes. Luck rushed for a touchdown in the final minute of the first half, which jump-started Indianapolis’ rally in the second half. The Colts had an opportunity to tie the game late in the fourth quarter, but fell short in a 31-24 setback, while covering as eight-point underdogs.


Luck and the Colts are 0-2 on the road in the postseason with both losses coming by double-digits at Baltimore (2012) and New England (2013). Manning has split four playoff games since signing with the Broncos prior to the 2012 season, while losing six of his past eight postseason starts since 2010 dating back to his days with the Colts.


Nelson breaks down this matchup, “For a defense that has taken severe criticism, the Colts allowed just 15 more points compared with the Broncos this season and in six of the last nine games counting last week’s win against Cincinnati, Indianapolis has allowed 24 or fewer points. The Colts did allow 42 or more points in three of the last 10 games as there were some notable high profile failures for this team. With the highest total of the week many are expecting a shootout and both teams did average more than 28 points per game this season. Both teams have had some great moments on defense as well and late in the season the running game proved more at the forefront of the game plans at times.”


The Broncos are currently a seven-point favorite, although most books will make you pay a bit of extra juice to lay the touchdown at -120 (Bet $120 to win $100 on Denver -7). The total sits between 53 ½ and 54, as the Week 1 contest between these teams closed at 53. The Colts began the season at 9-3 to the ‘over,’ but are riding a five-game ‘under’ streak. Denver hit the ‘over’ in six of eight of home contests, while going 4-0 to the ‘over’ in games with totals listed above 50 this season.

 

[CNOTES]

Championship Game Notes


January 11, 2015


Packers at Seahawks – 3:00 PM EST


Seattle opens as a 7 ½-point home favorite with a total of 46 ½ at Westgate Las Vegas.


Overall Records:


GB: 13-4 SU, 9-7-1 ATS
SEA: 13-4 SU, 10-6-1 ATS


How they got here:


The Packers rallied past the Cowboys on Sunday, 26-21, erasing a 21-13 second half deficit. Aaron Rodgers overcame a lingering calf injury to throw three touchdown passes, including the go-ahead score to Richard Rodgers in the fourth quarter. Green Bay failed to cover as 5 ½-point favorites, but the Packers closed out their home slate at 9-0.


The Seahawks took care of the Panthers, 31-17 to cash as 13 ½-point favorites. Russell Wilson led Seattle to its fourth straight playoff victory with three touchdowns, while Kam Chancellor’s 90-yard interception return for a score stymied a late Carolina drive to get the game within seven. Seattle has won seven straight games, while limiting its last five opponents at home to less than 17 points.


Previous meeting:


Seattle kicked off the season with a 36-16 rout of Green Bay at CenturyLink Field back in Week 1. The Seahawks easily covered as 4 ½-point favorites, while rushing for 207 yards in the blowout. Marshawn Lynch found the end zone twice, while Seattle’s defense limited Rodgers to 189 yards passing. The Packers have won each of the past two postseason matchups, including a 42-20 triumph at Lambeau Field in 2007.


Colts at Patriots – 6:40 PM EST


New England opens as a 7 ½-point home favorite, but has dropped to 7 at Westgate Las Vegas. The total opens at 54 ½.


Overall Records:


IND: 13-5 SU, 12-5-1 ATS
NE: 13-4 SU, 9-8 ATS


How they got here:


The Colts pulled off a pair of impressive victories over the Bengals and Broncos in back-to-back weeks to advance to their first AFC Championship since 2009. Indianapolis erased an early 7-0 deficit to dominate Denver in the divisional playoff round, 24-13 to easily cash as 9 ½-point road underdogs. Andrew Luck picked up his third career playoff victory and his first away from Lucas Oil Stadium.


The Patriots pulled off a pair of rallies against the feisty Ravens, digging out of 14-0 and 28-14 holes to shock Baltimore, 35-31 to advance its fourth consecutive conference title game. New England couldn’t manage to cover as seven-point favorites, but the Pats overcame just 14 yards rushing as Tom Brady threw for 367 yards and three touchdowns.


Previous meeting:


New England ripped apart Indianapolis in Week 11 with a 42-20 wipeout of the Colts as three-point road underdogs. Former Notre Dame standout Jonas Gray ran all over the Colts’ defense for 201 yards and four touchdowns, while Indianapolis rushed for just 19 yards on 16 carries. The Colts and Patriots are meeting in the postseason for the fifth time since 2003, as New England has won three of the past four matchups.

 

[CNOTES]

Seahawks WR Richardson has torn ACL


January 11, 2015


RENTON, Wash. (AP) - Rookie wide receiver Paul Richardson will miss the rest of the playoffs for the Seattle Seahawks after suffering a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee.


The team confirmed Richardson's injury on Sunday night. Fox Sports first reported the injury.


Richardson was injured in the second half of Seattle's 31-17 win over Carolina in an NFC divisional playoff game on Saturday night. Richardson landed hard on his left knee jumping for a deep pass from Russell Wilson and walked off the field with a significant limp. He did not return.


Richardson also tore the ACL in his left knee in college at Colorado.


Richardson had become more involved in Seattle's offense as the season progressed. Richardson had 13 receptions in the final three games of the regular season, including his first NFL touchdown. Richardson had one reception against the Panthers.


Richardson will likely be replaced by Ricardo Lockette and fellow rookie Kevin Norwood in Seattle's multiple receiver sets. The Seahawks will also need to find another kick returner for the NFC championship game. Richardson had been returning kicks since the middle of the season after Percy Harvin was traded. Richardson averaged 23.5 yards per return

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Opening Line Report: Seahawks open -7 for showdown with Packers

The defending Super Bowl champion is alive and well. The defending AFC champion has been ousted. And so the NFL season surges onward to the conference championship weekend, with four teams battling for the two spots in the Super Bowl.

The Seattle Seahawks certainly look the role of clubhouse leader. In Saturday’s NFC divisional playoff game, top-seeded Seattle and its super-stingy defense and opportunistic offense pulled away for a 31-17 victory over visiting Carolina, narrowly cashing as a hefty 13.5-point favorite.

Seattle has won seven in a row SU and has been almost equally as stout at the betting window, going 6-0-1 ATS in that stretch while not allowing any team to score more than the 17 Carolina mustered.

Now the Seahawks get to host the NFC Championship Game against second-seeded Green Bay. The Packers had Aaron Rodgers gut out a gimpy leg to lead a 26-21 victory laying 5.5 points at home Sunday to the Dallas Cowboys. Green Bay was equally if not more fortunate to have a late replay reversal take away a Cowboys first-and-goal at the 1-yard line – perhaps questionably so on what appeared to be a spectacular Dez Bryant catch.

The Pack has won eight of its last nine SU but has been a much more middling 5-4 ATS in that span. And we’ve seen this movie before, and in the same theater: Seattle walloped visiting Green Bay 36-16 laying 4.5 points in the NFL’s regular-season opener.

John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, had no problem installing Seattle as 7-point chalk for Sunday's game, with a total of 46.5 points.

“We weren’t worried about hanging a touchdown for this one,” Lester said. “Everyone saw how limited Rodgers was against Dallas, and while a week to heal will help, he still won’t be anywhere close to 100 percent. Without him at full strength, I just don’t envision Green Bay leaving the Northwest with a win.”

Lester trekked familiar territory for the total, setting it at 46.5 points.

“We opened the total at exactly the same number we did when these teams met in Week 1,” he said. “I expect we'll see some over push from bettors.”


AFC Championship Game: Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-7)

New England is in familiar territory, in yet another conference title game as it seeks its sixth Super Bowl bid and fourth title of the Tom Brady era. But the top-seeded Patriots took a hard road against the sixth-seeded Baltimore Ravens on Saturday, twice overcoming 14-point deficits, then hanging on for a 35-31 victory as a 7-point home fave.

Not including their loss in a meaningless regular-season finale to Buffalo, the Pats have won 11 of 12 games SU (8-4 ATS).

Indianapolis as a franchise is also in familiar territory, but with a very different look. Andrew Luck is at the controls, and he helped the Colts dispatch his predecessor in Indy – Peyton Manning – in a 24-13 road victory over defending AFC champ Denver. The Colts were a healthy 9.5-point underdog in the contest, yet cashed for the third straight week and are 7-1 SU in their last eight (5-2-1 ATS).

Lester said people shouldn’t sleep on the Colts this Sunday, even though the Patriots hammered Indy 42-20 as 3-point road favorites in mid-November and rolled the visiting Colts 43-22 giving 7.5 points in last year’s AFC divisional round.

“There are going to be a lot of people looking for a letdown from Indy. And it may be a genuine concern, because that was the team’s biggest win in the last handful of years,” Lester said. “But I’ll tell you what, the Patriots cannot afford to mosey through the first half of this game like they have in a few this year.

“The Colts’ defense is playing well, and you aren’t going to keep that offense from scoring,” added Lester, who set the total at 53. “This matchup was one-sided during the regular season and last year’s playoffs, but I think the Colts will be competitive.”