Cnotes 2014 - 2015 NFL Playoff Thread Thru the Super Bowl News, Notes,Trends, Stats & More !

[CNOTES]

NFL

Sunday, January 4

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NFL Wild Card betting preview: Sunday doubleheader
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Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 48.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals are in the postseason for the fourth consecutive season but seek their first playoff victory in 24 years when they visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. To end a drought dating to the 1990 season, the fifth-seeded Bengals need to find a way to avenge a 27-0 drubbing at No. 4 seed Indianapolis on Oct. 19. Star wide receiver A.J. Green missed that matchup against the Colts and is questionable for Sunday due to a concussion.

Indianapolis is in the postseason for the third straight season since using the No. 1 overall pick to draft Andrew Luck, who authored the second-largest playoff comeback in league history in last year's 45-44 victory over Kansas City. "Suppressing Andrew Luck is going to be kind of hard," Cincinnati safety Reggie Nelson said. "He always starts off kind of slow and the scary thing is, he can always get his team going." The Colts have won six of their last eight, but the two losses came in lopsided fashion to a pair of playoff teams in Dallas and New England.

TV: 1:05 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Colts -4 and that has been adjusted to -3.5. The total opened 49 and is down a half-point.

INJURY REPORT: Bengals - WR A.J. Green (Doubtful, head), CB Terence Newman (Probable, illness), TE Jermaine Gresham (Probable, leg), RB Cedric Peerman (Questionable, concussion), WR James Wright (Out, knee), WR Dane Sanzenbacher (IR, concussion). Colts - G Joe Reitz (Probable, ankle), RB Trent Richardson (Probable, illness), TE Dwayne Allen (Probable, knee), LB Bjoern Werner (Probable, shoulder), LB Jerrell Freeman (Probable, hamstring), WR Reggie Wayne (Probable, groin), G Hugh Thornton (Out, shoulder).

ABOUT THE BENGALS (10-5-1 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U): Much has been made of the big-game failures of quarterback Andy Dalton, who is 0-3 with one touchdown and six interceptions in the postseason. Dalton has 19 scoring passes versus 17 picks this season, including a pair against Pittsburgh in last week's showdown for the AFC North title, which is among the reasons Cincinnati will lean heavily on rookie running back Jeremy Hill - even if Green is healthy. The 240-pound Hill was a bit player in the first meeting between the teams but took over the starting job two weeks later and rushed for 100 yards five times in the last nine games, including four of at least 147 yards. The Bengals tied for the AFC lead with 20 interceptions but ranked last in the NFL with 20 sacks.

ABOUT THE COLTS (11-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS, 9-7 O/U): Luck threw for 344 yards and a pair of TDs against Cincinnati in October, which came during a stretch of eight straight 300-yard games en route to career-best totals of 4,761 yards and an NFL-leading 40 scoring passes. Postseason standout T.Y. Hilton and veteran Reggie Wayne each were hobbled late in the season but expect to be ready to go while tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen must be monitored after hauling in eight TD receptions apiece. The Colts amassed a season-high 171 yards on the ground in the first meeting, but Ahmad Bradshaw is done for the season and Trent Richardson has all but disappeared, leaving Daniel "Boom" Herron as the lead back. Indy allowed at least 30 points in all five of its losses - including 42 apiece to the Patriots and Cowboys.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Indianapolis.
* Bengals are 0-5 ATS in their last five playoff games.
* Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff games.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 61 percent of bettors are backing the Colts.



Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 48)

The Dallas Cowboys have become synonymous with late-season swoons over the past two decades, but they appear bent on putting an end to that reputation. The Cowboys surged to the NFC East title in spectacular fashion and take a four-game winning streak into Sunday's Wild Card round against the visiting Detroit Lions. Dallas, which has one playoff win since 1996 and is in the postseason for the first time since 2009, averaged a staggering 41.3 points in going 4-0 in December.

The Lions came up short in their bid to secure a first-round bye with a Week 17 loss at NFC North rival Green Bay, but they picked up a huge victory off the field when the NFL reversed a one-game suspension against stud defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. The successful appeal by Suh for stepping on Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers sets up an intriguing matchup between Detroit's No. 1 rush defense and the Cowboys' second-ranked ground game, featuring the NFL's leading rusher in DeMarco Murray. "The game in a lot of ways may come down to ... that matchup up front," Dallas QB Tony Romo said.

TV: 4:40 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Cowboys as 7-point home faves, but that is now -6.5. The total opened 48.

INJURY REPORT: Lions - DT Nick Fairley (Doubtful, knee). Cowboys - LB Rolando McClain (Probable, knee), DE Tyrone Crawford (Questionable, illness), LB Anthony Hitchens (Questionable, leg), T Doug Free (Doubtful, ankle).

ABOUT THE LIONS (11-5 SU, 7-9 ATS, 5-11 O/U): Detroit allowed a total of 15.5 points during a four-game winning streak - all against teams with losing records - but was gashed for a season-worst 152 rushing yards in the 30-20 loss to the Packers. That more than doubled the per-game average of 69.3 yards allowed by the Lions, who ranked second in the league in points (17.6) and total yards (300.9) allowed while registering 42 sacks and 20 interceptions. Detroit's offense continues to battle inconsistency despite Matthew Stafford going over 4,000 yards passing for the fourth straight season and wideouts Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate each surpassing 1,000 yards. Johnson, who missed three games due to injury, torched the Cowboys last season with a franchise-record 329 yards and a TD on 14 receptions.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS, 9-6-1 O/U): Murray ran away with the league rushing title, setting franchise records with 1,845 yards and 12 100-yard games despite undergoing surgery for a broken hand suffered in Week 15. Murray has rushed for six of his 13 touchdowns over the past five games, but Dallas has been equally effective through the air with Dez Bryant hauling in six scoring passes in the last three games en route to a league-best total of 16. The much-maligned Romo played superbly down the stretch to enter the MVP conversation, throwing for 12 touchdowns versus one interception during the four-game winning streak while posting a quarterback rating of at least 129.1 in six of the final nine contests. The Cowboys' defense, which ranked last in 2013, yielded only three first-half TDs during the winning streak.

TRENDS:

* Lions are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 57 percent of bettors are backing the Cowboys.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's Top Action


January 2, 2015




CINCINNATI BENGALS (10-5-1) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (11-5)


AFC Wild Card Playoffs
Kickoff: Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line Indianapolis -3, Total: 49


The Bengals look for their first playoff win since 1990 (six straight postseason losses) when they visit the Colts on Sunday for a Wild Card round matchup.


Cincinnati is coming off a Week 17 loss in Pittsburgh where the team was a 3-point road underdog in the game, but it had won-and-covered in the previous two contests. Indianapolis toppled the Titans 27-10 as a 7-point road favorite for its fifth SU victory in six games.


Earlier in the season, the Colts crushed the Bengals 27-0 as 3-point favorites at home. Cincinnati had won-and-covered in two straight road games in this series before that shutout, but Indianapolis has won eight of its past 10 home meetings.


Over the past two seasons, the Bengals are 9-1 ATS off a division game, but are 0-6 ATS in road contests after covering the spread in two out their previous three games in that timeframe. The Colts, meanwhile, are 7-0 ATS in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the past two years.


Cincinnati star WR A.J. Green (concussion) is 'out' for this game after getting hit in the head against the Steelers in Week 17, and two of his teammates are 'questionable' -- CB Terence Newman (illness) and WR James Wright (knee).


Indianapolis has five questionable players for Sunday, TE Dwayne Allen (knee), LB Jerrell Freeman (hamstring), LB Bjoern Werner, G Joe Reitz (ankle) and OT Gosder Cherilus (groin).


The Bengals are coming off a loss to the Steelers in a game that could’ve given them the AFC North crown. QB Andy Dalton (3,398 pass yards, 19 TD, 17 INT) threw for 244 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the game.


Dalton has looked a lot more confident in the pocket over the last two weeks, but the team has little to no chance of advancing to the next round if he doesn’t limit his turnovers. He threw for just 126 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions in the Oct. 19 loss to the Colts, and is 0-3 in his playoff career with 1 TD and 6 INT in those defeats. Dalton could have even more trouble in this game since WR A.J. Green (69 rec, 1,041 yards, 6 TD) isn’t cleared to play this Sunday. Green had eight catches for 82 yards against the Steelers last week, but he lost a costly fumble late in the fourth quarter.


RBs Jeremy Hill (1,124 rush yards, 9 TD) and Giovani Bernard (680 rush yards, 5 TD) will need to be more effective for Cincinnati. Hill rushed for 100 yards against the Steelers, and Bernard added seven receptions for 56 yards and a touchdown in the game. Both of these guys do different things for this offense, and both will have a major role against the Colts.


Cincinnati will need its defense to hold up, as the unit is allowing 27.5 PPG over the past two weeks and needs to play much better against this potent Colts offense.


Indianapolis will enter this game extremely confident after beating the Bengals 27-0 earlier in the season at Lucas Oil Stadium. QB Andrew Luck (4,761 pass yards, 40 TD, 16 INT) threw for 344 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in that game. He’s also coming off a 160-yards, 2-TD performance against the Titans in limited action in Week 17.


Luck will need to be on his game on Sunday or the team will have no chance of advancing, as the running game hasn’t been there since RB Ahmad Bradshaw (425 rush yards, 2 TD) went down.


Top WR T.Y. Hilton (82 rec, 1,345 yards, 7 TD) played against the Titans after hurting his groin a few weeks ago and was a non-factor, finishing the game with no catches on three targets. Indianapolis will need Hilton to be healthy for this game, or Andrew Luck will have to turn to his other targets that he doesn’t trust quite as much.


TE Coby Fleener (51 rec, 774 yards, 8 TD) will be the one that Luck relies on most, as he is coming off of a performance against the Titans where he caught five catches for 56 yards and two touchdowns. WR Reggie Wayne (779 rec yards) and TE Dwayne Allen (8 rec TD) are less than 100 percent healthy, which puts more pressure on both Hilton and Fleener.


The Colts defense could ultimately decide whether or not they win this game. They allowed just 10 points against the Titans last week, but 42 against the Cowboys the week before. They’ll need to give Luck a chance to win this game, so getting the Bengals offense off the field is crucial.


DETROIT LIONS (11-5) at DALLAS COWBOYS (12-4)


NFC Wild Card Playoffs
Kickoff: Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line Dallas -6.5, Total: 48


The Cowboys look to ride their hot streak into a home playoff meeting with the Lions.


Detroit lost 30-20 in the NFC North division-deciding game at Lambeau Field last week, but the team had won four straight games heading into that one. Dallas, meanwhile, won 44-17 as 6-point favorites in Washington for its fourth consecutive win-and-cover.


These two teams most recently met on Oct. 27, 2013, when the Lions won 31-30 as 3-point home favorites. Detroit has won the past two meetings in this series, but the teams have split wins ATS. The Cowboys are a miserable 10-25 ATS after covering the spread in five or six of their previous seven games since 1992.


They are, however, 24-10 ATS in home games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games in that timeframe. They’re also up against a Lions team that is 1-8 ATS after having won three out of their past four games over the past two years.


Detroit is in pretty good shape injury-wise, but G Larry Warford (knee) is doubtful to play.


Dallas has a slew of players who are questionable in S C.J. Spillman (groin), DT Nick Hayden (shoulder), LB Rolando McClain (illness), LB Anthony Hitchens (leg), OT Doug Free (ankle), DT Josh Brent (calf) and LB Dekoda Watson (hamstring). The team also just placed two players on IR -- DT Henry Melton (knee) and OT Darrion Weems (shoulder).


The Lions defense was disappointing in a 30-20 loss to the Packers on Sunday that could have given them the win in the division. Detroit’s top-ranked rushing defense allowed the Packers to rush for 152 yards as a team, and overall, it let Green Bay convert 8-of-13 third-down plays. The Lions will need to be a lot better against a Cowboys offense that has been hot as of late.


If this defense isn’t playing like it has most of the year, QB Matthew Stafford (4,257 pass yards, 22 TD, 12 INT) will need to have a big game. Stafford threw for 217 yards with three touchdowns and no picks against the Packers, but he was just 20-of-41 in the game. Stafford will need to be way more efficient passing the ball, and it shouldn’t be too difficult with WR Calvin Johnson (71 rec, 1,077 yards, 8 TD) on his side. Johnson caught four passes for 39 yards and two touchdowns against the Packers. He is a nightmare to defend on the outside and should be in for a big game against the Cowboys, especially considering how he destroyed Dallas in last year's meeting with 14 catches for 329 yards and three touchdowns.


RB Joique Bell (860 rush yards, 7 TD) is going to be a big factor in this game. Bell rushed 13 times for 60 yards against the Packers last week and will need to be more involved against the Cowboys. Bell’s powerful style of running can wear out the Dallas defense, and that is something that the Lions really need to do.


The Cowboys are playing extremely well lately, heading into the postseason on a four-game winning streak. Over the past two weeks, their defense has been absolutely dominant, allowing just 12.0 PPG. But the competition is a lot stiffer with a Lions team that has Calvin Johnson lined up on the outside. It will not be easy, but they did hold an Andrew Luck-led Colts team to just seven points two weeks ago.


QB Tony Romo (3,705 pass yards, 34 TD, 9 INT) has nine touchdowns and just one interception over the past three weeks. His days of costing this team games with turnovers seem to be way in the past, and he is now looking to shed his past troubles in the playoffs where he is 1-3 with 6.2 yards per pass attempt in his career.


One guy that can help this franchise win its first postseason game since 2009 is WR Dez Bryant (88 rec, 1,320 yards, 16 TD), who has six touchdowns over the past three weeks. Bryant is nearly impossible to stop once the Cowboys get into the red zone, and Romo will be looking his way often in this one.


The Lions defense is the best in the league at stopping the rush, so Romo and Bryant may need to pick up the slack if RB DeMarco Murray (1,845 rush yards, 13 TD) is to struggle. Murray did, however, shred a solid Redskins rushing defense last week with 100 yards and a touchdown. He now has four touchdowns over the past three weeks, despite playing with a fractured hand.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's Wild Card Tips


January 3, 2015




**Cincinnati at Indianapolis**


-- As of Saturday afternoon, most books had Indianapolis (11-5 straight up, 10-5-1 against the spread) installed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 49. Gamblers can take the Bengals on the money line for a +160 return (risk $100 to win $160). For first-half wagers, the Colts are favored by 2.5 (-120) or three (even money) with a total of 24.5.


-- Chuck Pagano's squad won six of its eight home games while posting a 5-2-1 spread record. Indy has won three in a row at home, going 2-0-1 ATS. Regardless of the venue, the Colts have won five of their last six games, including a 27-10 win at Tennessee in the regular-season finale. They took the cash as 7.5-point road 'chalk.' Andrew Luck threw a pair of touchdown passes without being intercepted.


-- Indy has been a single-digit favorite 13 times, going 8-4-1 ATS.


-- Cincinnati (10-5-1 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) had won four in a row on the road until dropping a 27-17 decision at Pittsburgh as a three-point underdog in last week's regular-season finale. Andy Dalton threw for 244 yards and two touchdowns in the losing effort, but he was also intercepted twice. Jeremy Hill ran for 100 yards on 23 carries. A.J. Green had eight receptions for 82 yards, but he also sustained a concussion.


-- Green didn't practicedall week and was ruled 'out' Saturday afternoon. This is obviously a huge development as Green is one of the NFL's top wide receivers. During the regular season, Green hauled in 69 catches for 1,041 yards and six TDs. He missed three games earlier in the year.


-- Dalton has completed 64.1 percent of his passes for 3,398 yards, but he has a mediocre 19/17 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The fourth-year QB has led the Bengals to the postseason ever since getting drafted, but he's still looking for his first victory in the playoffs.


-- Hill has enjoyed a breakout season as a rookie, rushing for 1,124 yards and nine TDs. Hill, an LSU product who started only eight games, averaged 5.1 yards per carry.


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-- Marvin Lewis's defense is led by a pair of Florida Gators. Reggie Nelson has a team-high 62 solo tackles along with 33 assists. Nelson also has four interceptions, 1.5 sacks and 12 passes defended. Carlos Dunlap has a team-best eight sacks to with a pair of forced fumbles and one fumble recovery.


-- Luck has completed 61.7 percent of his throws for 4,761 yards with a 40/16 TD-INT ratio. He has also rushed for three TDs. His favorite target is T.Y. Hilton, who has made 82 catches for 1,345 yards and seven TDs. Veteran WR Reggie Wayne has 64 receptions for 779 yards and two TDs, while TEs Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener have both brought down eight TD catches apiece.


-- The 'over' is 9-7 overall for the Colts, 4-4 in their home games. However, the 'under' has cashed in four straight Indy games and five of its last six.


-- The 'under' is 10-6 overall for the Bengals, 7-1 in their road assignments.


-- Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS.


**Detroit at Dallas**


-- As of Saturday afternoon, most spots had Dallas (12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS) listed as a seven-point 'chalk'at even money. Gamblers can take the Lions on the money line for a +250 payout (risk $100 to win $250). For first-half bets, the Cowboys are favored by four with a total of 24.


-- Detroit (11-5 SU, 7-9 ATS) had won four in a row until dropping a 30-20 decision at Green Bay last weekend. The showdown at Lambeau Field determined the NFC North winner and the Packers earned a bye and a weekend of rest. The Lions failed to cover the spread for the third straight game, disappointing their backers as 8.5-point road underdogs.


-- In the loss at Green Bay, Matt Stafford threw for 217 yards and three TDs without an interception. Calvin Johnson caught four balls for 39 yards and two TDs.


-- Stafford has connected on 60.3 percent of his passes for 4,257 yards with a 22/12 TD-INT ratio. Johnson missed three games but still managed to haul in 71 catches for 1,077 yards and eight TDs. Golden Tate enjoyed a career year, making 99 receptions for 1,331 yards and four TDs.


-- With Reggie Bush missing five games due to injuries, Joique Bell emerged as the featured back. Bell ran for a team-high 860 yards and seven TDs, but his yards-per-carry average was only 3.9.


-- Dallas appeared to be in trouble on Thanksgiving Day when it fell one game back of Philadelphia in the NFC East race. The Eagles went into Arlington and smashed the Cowboys by a 33-10 count. Nevertheless, Dallas responded by winning four in a row both SU and ATS with each victory coming by double-digit margins.


-- Tony Romo has enjoyed a monster season, completing 69.9 percent of his passes for 3,705 yards with a 34/9 TD-INT ratio. He was sensational in December, throwing 12 TD passes compared to only one interception in the last four games.


-- Dallas RB DeMarco Murray led the NFL with 1,845 rushing yards. Murray rushed for 13 TDs and averaged 4.7 YPC.


-- Dallas WR Dez Bryant had a team-high 88 catches for 1,320 yards and 16 TDs. Jason Witten was steady as always, bringing down 64 receptions for 703 yards and five TDs.


-- Detroit leads the NFL in rushing defense, giving up only 69.3 yards per game. Jim Caldwell's club is third in scoring defense, allowing only 17.6 points per game. The Lions are No. 2 in the league in total defense.


-- Dallas went undefeated on the road this season, only to inexplicably struggle at home. The Cowboys won just four of eight home games while going 3-5 ATS at Jerry World.


-- Detroit went 4-4 SU on the road, but it had a miserable 2-6 ATS ledger. As a road underdog, the Lions compiled a 2-3 record both SU and ATS.


-- The 'under' has been a money maker in Detroit games this season, cashing at an 11-5 overall clip. When the Lions have played on the road, the 'under' has gone 7-1.


-- The 'over' is 9-6-1 overall for Dallas, but the 'under' has produced at a 5-2-1 clip in its home outings.


-- FOX will have the telecast at 4:40 p.m. Eastern.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - WC Sunday


January 3, 2015


In Saturday’s installment of Total Talk, we recapped Week 17 and touched on the last 10 years of the Wild Card weekend. During this span, the ‘under’ has produced a 25-15 (62.5%) record which includes a 7-1 (87.5%) mark the past two seasons.


Is there a reason for the low-scoring affairs? There isn’t one specific reason but after looking at the numbers, you could make a case that the conditions have played a part.


In the last three playoffs, there have been four games played in a dome or within a stadium with a retractable roof. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in those contests.


2011 – Cincinnati 10 at Houston 31 (OVER 38)
2011 - Detroit 28 at New Orleans 45 (OVER 59.5)
2012 – Cincinnati 13 at Houston 19 (UNDER 24.5)
2013 – Kansas City 44 at Indianapolis 45 (OVER 48)


Why do I bring this up?


Because both games on Sunday will be played indoors.


Sunday, Jan. 4


For the playoffs, I’m going to break down each day and offer up my quick handicap and prediction for all the matchups. I’ll tally the results each weekend and hopefully start 2015 in the black. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!


Cincinnati at Indianapolis


In Week 7, the Colts blanked the Bengals 27-0 in what was their most dominating performance of the season. Indianapolis racked up 506 yards of offense while Cincinnati mustered up 135 total yards. If it wasn’t for a pair of turnovers and a short field goal, this margin could’ve easily been 40 points.


The total on that matchup was 50 ½ and the number has dropped to 48 ½ for the rematch this weekend.


Cincinnati didn’t have star wide receiver A.J. Green in the earlier loss this season and he’s expected to miss Sunday’s game after suffering a concussion in last week’s loss at Pittsburgh. It’s a big loss for the Bengals offense but they’ve taken on a new look with Jeremy Hill at running back, which in turn has helped the defense stay off the field.

Since the beating at Indy, the Bengals closed the season with a 4-1 record on the road behind a defense that allowed an average of 12.6 PPG. Delving into last week’s loss at Pittsburgh, it should be noted that the Steelers scored 14 points on a punt return and a 63-yard busted pass play late in the game. Cincinnati has watched the ‘under’ go 7-1 on the road this season and that includes five winning tickets during the aforementioned span.


Holding the Indianapolis offense and QB Andrew Luck in check won’t be easy but be aware that the Colts have scored more points on the road this season than at home. Indianapolis has been much better defensively (17.8 PPG) at Lucas Oil Stadium, which has helped keep the ‘over/under’ at 4-4 this season.


It’s well known that Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton is 0-3 in the playoffs and he hasn’t played well at all. He’s only completed 56 percent of his passes and been intercepted six times. Dalton will be held accountable if Cincinnati comes up short again on Sunday but so should head coach Marvin Lewis, who is 0-5 in the postseason and the offense is only averaging 12.8 PPG in those losses. Despite the low numbers offensively, the ‘over’ has gone 3-2 during this span.


The Colts won their first playoff game with Luck last season and that was a very fortunate victory as the Chiefs blew a 28-point lead. What everybody likes about Luck is that he rebounds after mistakes and he’s made plenty (8 INTs) in three postseason games.


Fearless Prediction: Normally, I like to take the vice versa approach to totals when teams meet for the second time in a season, especially with the first result falls way below or way above the closing number, which is the case here. However, as much as I want to see Dalton get over the hump, I just can’t trust him in this spot and I’m going to play the UNDER 22 ½ team total for Cincinnati.


Detroit at Dallas


Of the four games in the Wild Card round, this is the only total that moved up off its opener. Oddsmakers sent out 48 and most shops have the number at 49 as of Saturday evening.


If you put a lot of stock into home-away tendencies, then you’re leaning to the ‘under’ in this matchup. Dallas has seen the ‘under’ go 5-2-1 at home while Detroit has produced a 7-1 record to the ‘under’ on the road and that could easily be 8-0 if it wasn’t for 10 late points in last week’s 30-20 loss at Green Bay.


Adding more weight to the 'under' lean is the offensive numbers for both clubs. Dallas averaged 29.2 PPG this season, but the average fell to 24 PPG at AT&T Stadium. Detroit’s scoring has been down this season (20.1 PPG) and a lot of the trouble has been on the road where it’s averaging 15.6 PPG.


Defensively, the Lions have the better unit in this game. Detroit is ranked second in total yards allowed (300.9) and third in scoring defense (17.6 PPG).


Bettors that weight heavily on current form can make a strong case for the ‘over’ in this matchup. QB Tony Romo and the Cowboys closed the season with four straight wins and covers and they scored 41, 38, 42 and 44 points during this run. Detroit wasn’t as explosive but it did average 24.8 PPG in its final five games, which translated into a 4-1 record and a 3-2 mark to the ‘over.’


Unfortunately, we don’t have much postseason data for either team. The Cowboys have gone 1-3 in the playoffs with Romo under center and the offense has only averaged 18.5 PPG. The last playoff game for Dallas came in 2009. Detroit made the playoffs in 2011 and was hammered 45-28 at New Orleans. It was the first playoff game for Matthew Stafford, who accounted for four touchdowns (1 rushing) and two interceptions in the loss.


These teams met last season in a wild affair from Ford Field that was a very tough beat if you had the ‘under’ or the Cowboys. Dallas held a 10-7 lead at halftime and after some big plays, it built a 27-17 lead in the fourth quarter. The Lions kept answering and actually stole a 31-30 win on a Stafford sneak late in the final minute.


Fearless Prediction: My Best Bet for this matchup is OVER 49. For those of you following Total Talk this season, you’ve more than come across total systems that are profitable. One of them that I’ve written about is the “Road System” where you simply - Play the ‘OVER’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the Road. It went 2-2 in the regular season and is 37-17-1 (68%) the last 10 seasons. Since this will be Detroit’s third game away from home, I’m leaning to the angle and expecting the winner to get into the thirties, most likely Dallas.

 

[CNOTES]

AFC Divisional Cheat Sheet


January 4, 2015




Saturday, January 10


AFC – Baltimore at New England (NBC, 4:35 p.m. ET)


Opening Line: Patriots -7.5, 49


Baltimore Road Record: 5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS
New England Home Record: 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS


Head-to-Head: New England blasted New England 41-7 last season as a one-point road underdog. These teams have met three times in the playoffs since 2010 and Baltimore has gone 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in those games, all of the games being playing in New England. The lone loss came by three points (20-23).


Playoff Notes: Including last Saturday’s win at Pittsburgh, the Ravens have gone 10-4 both SU and ATS under head coach John Harbaugh and QB Joe Flacco. During this span, Baltimore has won eight games as a visitor which includes a victory in the Super Bowl. The Patriots have gone 18-8 with QB Tom Brady as the starting quarterback in the playoffs, which includes a remarkable 10-0 run from 2002 through 2006. Since then, the Pats are a mediocre 8-8. More importantly, they’re just 5-11 ATS during this span.


Total Notes: The Ravens saw the ‘under’ go 9-8 this season but the ‘over’ was 6-3 in away games. The ‘over’ went 9-7 for the Patriots, which included a 5-3 record at home.


Sunday, January 11


AFC – Indianapolis at Denver (CBS, 4:40 p.m. ET)


Opening Line: Denver -7.5, Total 52.5


Indianapolis Road Record: 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS
Denver Home Record: 8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS


Head-to-Head: In Week 1, Denver defeated Indianapolis 31-24 at home but failed to cover as an eight-point home favorite. The Broncos led 24-3 at the break and 31-10 late in the fourth quarter before the Colts earned the backdoor cover with 14 unanswered points. These teams met last season at Indianapolis and the Colts earned a 39-33 win at home as 6 ½-point underdogs.


Playoff Notes: Since QB Peton Manning arrived in Denver, the Broncos are a pedestrian 2-2 in the playoffs and only 1-3 versus the number. The Colts are 2-2 both SU and ATS in the playoffs under Andrew Luck, both losses coming on the road by double digits.


Total Notes: The Broncos saw the ‘over’ go 10-6 this season, 6-2 at home. The ‘over’ has gone 9-8 for the Colts this season, but the ‘under’ owns a 5-3 mark on the road. The last two encounters between the teams went ‘over’ with totals ranging from 53 ½ to 55 points.

 

[CNOTES]

NFC Divisional Cheat Sheet


January 4, 2015




Saturday, January 10


NFC – Carolina at Seattle (FOX, 8:15 p.m. ET)


Opening Line: Seattle -11, Total 40


Carolina Road Record: 3-4-1 SU, 4-4 ATS
Seattle Home Record: 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS


Head-to-Head: In Week 8, the Seahawks defeated the Panthers 13-9 on the road. Carolina covered as a six-point home underdog. Including this win, Seattle has won four straight and six of the last seven meetings against Carolina. The Panthers are 0-3 all-time at Seattle, with losses by 17, 20 and six points.


Playoff Notes: The Seahawks are 5-2 both SU and ATS under head coach Peter Carroll in the playoffs, which includes a perfect 3-0 record at home. Carolina won its first playoff game last weekend under head coach Ron Rivera and QB Cam Newton. These teams met in the 2006 playoffs and Seattle defeated Carolina 34-14 at home as six-point favorites.


Total Notes: The Panthers were a great ‘over’ bet on the road (6-2) this season. Total bettors saw a stalemate with the Seahawks this season (8-8) as the ‘over/under’ went 4-4 both on the road and at home.


Sunday, January 11


NFC – Dallas at Green Bay (FOX, 1:05 p.m. ET)


Opening Line: Green Bay -6.5, 52.5


Dallas Road Record: 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS
Green Bay Home Record: 8-0 SU, 6-1-1 ATS


Head-to-Head: These teams met last season and Green Bay earned a 37-36 win at Dallas as a four-point underdog with backup QB Matt Flynn under center. Prior to this meeting, the last encounter came in 2010. The Packers have won and covered four of the last five meetings at home against the Cowboys, all four victories coming by double digits.


Playoff Notes:The Packers are 5-4 SU and 5-3-1 ATS in the playoffs with QB Aaron Rodgers under center. Two of those losses came at home. Prior to Sunday’s Wild Card win over Detroit, the Cowboys haven’t been in the postseason since 2009. QB Tony Romo is 2-3 both SU and ATS in the playoffs, going 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS on the road.


Total Notes: The Packers watched the ‘over’ go 11-5 this season, which includes a 7-1 record at home. Green Bay averaged a league-best 39.8 points per game at home. Dallas was a strong ‘over’ bet (7-1) on the road behind an offense that averaged 34.4 PPG.

 

[CNOTES]

2014 NFL Playoff Results


January 4, 2015


NFL PLAYOFF BETTING RESULTS


Wager Favorites-Underdogs Home-Away


Straight Up 3-1 3-1


Against the Spread 2-2 2-2


Total
Over-Under 1-2-1




Wild Card Round


SATURDAY, JAN. 3


Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result


Arizona Carolina (-5.5) 27-16 Favorite Over (37.5)


Baltimore (+3.5, ML +145) Pittsburgh 30-17 Underdog Push (47)




SUNDAY, JAN. 4


Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result


Cincinnati Indianapolis (-4) 26-10 Favorite Under (47)


Detroit Dallas (-6) 24-20 Underdog Under (48)


Divisional Playoff Round


SATURDAY, JAN. 10


Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result


Baltimore New England - - -


Carolina Seattle - - -




SUNDAY, JAN. 11


Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result


Dallas Green Bay - - -


Indianapolis Denver - - -




Championship Round


SUNDAY, JAN. 18


Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result


TBD TBD - - -


TBD TBD - - -




SUPER BOWL XLIX


SUNDAY, FEB. 1


Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result


AFC winner NFC winner - - -

 

[CNOTES]

Ref: Official's 'better view' led to change


January 4, 2015


ARLINGTON, Texas (AP) - The referee who overturned a crucial pass interference penalty against Dallas in a playoff win over Detroit says another official with a ''better view'' thought the call should be changed.


Pete Morelli said the back judge threw a flag on Cowboys linebacker Anthony Hitchens on a pass to Lions tight end Brandon Pettigrew in Dallas' 24-20 wild-card win Sunday. But the head linesman said there wasn't enough contact and that Hitchens was face-guarding, which isn't a penalty in the NFL.


Morelli acknowledged he should have waited longer to announce the penalty. He also announced that there was no penalty, but never explained why the flag was picked up.


Morelli says ''it probably would have been smoother if we got together.''


The Lions punted after the sequence, and the Cowboys drove to the winning touchdown late in the fourth quarter.

 

[CNOTES]

It'll be Manning vs. Luck III next Sunday


January 4, 2015


ENGLEWOOD, Colo. (AP) - Manning vs. Luck III.


Peyton Manning gets to face his former team and his successor after Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts beat Cincinnati in the wild-card round Sunday.


They met last year in Indianapolis when Manning's emotions and the Colts both got the best of him in his homecoming.


Manning won't get caught up in the hype of the marquee matchup this time, suggested Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas. He pointed to his quarterback's coolness in this season opener when Denver beat Indy 31-24.


''We had them the first game of the season and he was fine,'' Thomas said. ''It's a playoff game so it's a little bit different because if you lose, you're done and if you win, you keep going. I can't really talk for Peyton, but I think he's fine.''


DeMarcus Ware said he was especially appreciative for the Broncos' bye, which they earned as the AFC's No. 2 seed, when he saw it was Luck whom he'll be facing next weekend.


Luck has an uncanny knack for comebacks even when things look bleak such as in last year's playoffs when he guided the Colts back from a 28-point deficit to Kansas City.


The Broncos jumped out to a 24-0 lead on the Colts in this season's opener. But Luck led a frenetic rally that came up short when rookie Bradley Roby broke up a fourth-and-6 pass to Reggie Wayne in the final minute to secure Denver's 31-24 win.


''He's one of those guys that you have to play a 60-minute game against,'' Ware said. ''He has really good pocket awareness. He's always one of those guys, just like Peyton, where he hits the open guy the majority of the time. He plays a fundamentally sound game.


''He's one of those quarterbacks you don't want to go against, but the thing is you've got to make sure you get pressure on him and make them one-dimensional.''


Four months have passed since the Colts (12-5) and Broncos (12-4) saw each other, but Ware stressed ''it's still the same quarterback,'' so ''I think you've got to go back and see what you did well. You've also got to see how and where you didn't play well and make sure those things are corrected.''


Thomas figures to cringe when he watches the film.


With Wes Welker serving a two-game suspension, Thomas played the slot and caught four passes for 48 yards with a couple of huge drops that night.


Once Welker returned, Thomas went back outside and had another stellar season that included a franchise-best 1,619 yards and 11 touchdowns.


''It's great'' having Welker back, Thomas said. ''I tried to play the slot and it wasn't for me that early in the season. Having him back is good because he is one of the best that does it and having him, you never know what defense they will play because they will have to watch everybody.


''Hopefully we will have Julius (Thomas) there healthy. It's good to have Wes back and I can be back outside and try to do my best to play my best for the team and have a big impact on the game.''


Julius Thomas got off to a sizzling start with three TDs against Indy in the opener and a dozen by Week 10. But he hasn't reached the end zone since spraining his left ankle Nov. 16.


After one score, microphones caught him screaming, ''It's so easy!''


A healthy Julius Thomas could be a tremendous help for the Broncos in the playoffs - that's one reason the bye week was such a big deal to them.


''It was big to get this week out of the way with some rest and now get back to business,'' Demaryius Thomas said. ''Some guys are feeling better. That is the benefit of having a bye week off. It was real big.''


The bye also gave Pro Bowl safety T.J. Ward (neck) and top tackler Brandon Marshall (foot) more time to get healthy.


That's ''something that we need,'' Ware said. ''Especially just from a leadership standpoint but also having guys come back that are big playmakers for us.''

 

[CNOTES]

Ravens eye Pats after dismissing Steelers


January 4, 2015


The Baltimore Ravens had just knocked off their despised rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers, and it was time to distribute game balls.


One of the stars of the 30-17 wild-card victory Saturday night was linebacker Terrell Suggs, whose zany, between-the-legs interception virtually sealed a trip to New England for Round 2 of the AFC playoffs.


''We just gave him the game ball for the greatest catch in the history of football,'' coach John Harbaugh said. ''I toss it to him. What happened, do you think? He dropped it. He caught the one that mattered. Clutch.''


Clutch, indeed. Just like the Ravens, who sputtered into the postseason as the No. 6 seed before playing their best game of the year at a time when it counted most.


''We were on top of our game,'' quarterback Joe Flacco said.


It didn't matter that the Ravens lost 43-23 in Pittsburgh in November, or that they needed a 17-point fourth quarter in the finale against Cleveland - along with a San Diego loss in Kansas City - just to qualify for the postseason.


Facing the AFC North champions on the road as underdogs, Baltimore opened the playoffs with a victory for the sixth time in six tries under Harbaugh. The Ravens are 7-4 on the road in the postseason since Harbaugh took over in 2008.


''We've been on the road a lot in the playoffs,'' Harbaugh said. ''Maybe that's it.''


Playing in Pittsburgh was a mere inconvenience compared to what the Ravens have endured this year. The suspension and subsequent release of running back Ray Rice, the four-game suspension of Haloti Ngata, and injuries to a slew of cornerbacks merely primed the team for a postseason run.


''You don't let adversity get you down. When things go the wrong way, you stick together and come out and keep fighting,'' Harbaugh said. ''Our guys have done that all year. You know over time that pays off.''


Flacco, the revamped secondary and a shuffled offensive line all came up big against the Steelers. So did Suggs, a 12-year veteran of this rivalry who had never before experienced the thrill of beating Pittsburgh in January.


With the Ravens clinging to a 23-15 lead in the fourth quarter, Suggs was tumbling to the ground when he got his hands on a deflected pass thrown by Ben Roethlisberger. The ball slipped from his grasp, but Suggs secured it between his legs while rolling on the turf.


''Big-time play from a big-time guy,'' Baltimore linebacker Pernell McPhee said.


''Whenever my time is done on the field, they could say I never beat the Steelers in the playoffs. They can't say that now,'' Suggs declared. ''It was a great achievement, but it's short-lived. We all know who we're dealing with next.''


The Ravens have no fear about facing top-seeded New England on Saturday. Baltimore is 2-1 against the Patriots on the road in the playoffs, including a 28-13 triumph in January 2013 that preceded a 34-31 victory over San Francisco in the Super Bowl.


''They're a very well-coached team, a very talented team, so we just have to prepare hard for it,'' said linebacker Elvis Dumervil, who had two sacks. ''It's going to be a tough challenge, and we know that. But we're looking forward to that challenge.''


McPhee added: ''Bring `em on. We're going to work hard in practice this coming week and go up there and play our best game. We're going to play Ravens football. And with a great game plan, I know we'll be ready for anything.''

 

[CNOTES]

QB Newton: Panthers must limit mistakes


January 4, 2015


CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) - Cam Newton said if the Panthers hope to make a deep playoff run they'll need to cut down on mistakes and make more plays on offense.


Carolina turned over the ball three times on Saturday against Arizona but managed to escape with a 27-16 win thanks to a defense that limited quarterback Ryan Lindley and the Cardinals to 78 yards, the fewest allowed in NFL postseason history.


''Those things can't happen, especially in playoff football. We can't expect to win when we have three turnovers,'' Newton said after his first career playoff win.


If Dallas beats Detroit on Sunday, the Panthers will play at top-seeded Seattle next weekend. If the Lions win, the Panthers visit Green Bay.


The Panthers lost to both teams during the regular season.


Newton praised his defense's effort after the game, but didn't appear too thrilled with the overall performance of the team.


The Panthers jumped to a 10-0 lead, but a muff by returner Brenton Bersin and a Newton interception - a play in which wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery ran the wrong route - led to two Arizona touchdowns, giving the Cardinals a 14-13 lead at halftime.


''Without finger pointing, it can't happen,'' Newton said.


Carolina players said it was frustrating to be down by one in the locker room knowing they had outgained Arizona 208-65.


''We started out fast on both sides of the ball and on special teams, but it kind of fizzled in the (middle of the game),'' Newton said. ''That fizzle can't happen if we expect to do great things.''


Newton also had a fumble early in the fourth quarter with the Panthers up 27-14, giving the Cardinals the ball at the Carolina 8 with a chance to get back in the game. But All-Pro linebacker Luke Kuechly bailed him out by intercepting Lindley near the goal line on the next play.


''We have to play better than we have,'' Panthers coach Ron Rivera said. ''We gave them an opportunity to stay in the game. ... We just have to be smarter than some of the things we did out there. We have to protect the football. It's a very valuable thing.''


Kuechly finished with 10 tackles, drawing praise from tight end Greg Olsen.


''I know J.J. Watt is a great player, he's phenomenal, but you can't find a guy who impacts the game on defense like Luke,'' Olsen said after the game. ''The run game, the pass game, covering running backs. ... I mean the guy is unbelievable. Luke is the best defensive player I have ever played with. (Brian) Urlacher was like that ... a similar, dynamic kind of player, but Luke is that good already. He's phenomenal.''


Newton finished the wild-card game 18 of 32 for 198 yards with two touchdown passes and two turnovers. He also ran seven times for 35 yards, picking up back-to-back first downs on third-and-long in the third quarter.


Newton and the offense could have more challenges moving forward.


Carolina could be without speedy wide receiver Philly Brown, who injured his left shoulder in the first half against Arizona and did not return. Brown was a late-season addition to the starting lineup and provided the Panthers with some much-needed speed and a legitimate deep threat.


The Panthers have not announced the extent of the injury.


Although the Panthers' defense entered the record books, Kuechly stopped short of saying it was the best defensive effort he's been a part of in Carolina. He wasn't thrilled the Panthers gave up two touchdowns on quick change of possessions in the first half.


''I saw 14 points on the scoreboard at halftime and I said, `Dang, we need to play a little better. We can't let up any more points at this point,''' Kuechly said.


The Panthers were 3-8-1 at one point in the season, but managed to fight back and win the NFC South to land a home playoff game. Despite their record, Newton said the Panthers aren't satisfied after their first postseason win in nine years.


''We have a long way to go,'' Newton said. ''And we're anticipating traveling and getting another big win next week.''

 

[CNOTES]

NFL line watch: Cowboys backers keep an eye on Wisconsin weather

Spread to bet on now

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7)

“Front of the line bettors” are on Baltimore in this one, but it appears they may be shooting at shadows. Yes, the Ravens looked good in taking care of the Steelers in Pittsburgh. And yes, Baltimore has had recent success against the Patriots in Foxboro. And yes, the Patriots lost their last regular-season game. But like a spin of the roulette wheel, this is an independent trial.

New England has been in dry dock for a week and has had time to handle some needed repairs to its offensive line, which was a bit shoddy over the final month. And when the Pats played Baltimore over the last few years, New England was crippled by injuries to Wes Welker or Rob Gronkowski. This time Gronk is ready to go. Whoever you like in this one, books probably won’t budge off seven.


Spread to wait on

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

These aren’t the Dallas Cowboys football bettors have been accustomed. The old Boys would have figured out a way to throw away a playoff spot with poor play in December, or Tony Romo would have done something – anything – to turn a win into a loss. But now Dallas takes a five-game winning streak into Green Bay on Sunday, and Cowboy backers will be able to get nearly a full touchdown in what figures to be a grind-it-out taffy pull.

Temperatures in Green Bay are expected to moderate a bit by Sunday, but it’s possible that the game will finish in single digits, which could be a shock to the Cowboys. Not “Ice Bowl II” stuff, but still nasty enough. Early money is on Green Bay, but Dallas money may flood in late and move the line. Hang on a bit here and check out the variables later in the week.


Total to watch

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (40.5)

Plenty to offer here for both Over and Under aficionados. Under players can make an argument that Seattle’s defense is every bit as good now as it was at this time last season, and that Carolina can easily hang with the Seahawks because the Panthers haven’t given up more than 17 points in a game in more than a month.

But some Over players will jump at anything under 41 points (24-17) and figure all that’s needed is a couple of well-placed pass interference call to make dust of the Under. Either way, it’s hard to see the books adding a half-point to the scale.

 

[CNOTES]

Recent NFL history says Panthers are most dangerous team this postseason

The Carolina Panthers are the biggest underdogs on the board, set at +10.5 heading to Seattle for their NFL Divisional Round matchup this Saturday. The Panthers could also be the most dangerous team in football – if recent history has any say.

Carolina, at 7-8-1 in the regular season, joins the recent list of single-digit-win teams to tear it up in the playoffs. The Panthers’ 27-16 wild card victory over the Arizona Cardinals as 5.5-point favorites Saturday improved teams with single-digit wins in the regular season to 20-7 ATS in playoff games since 2008.

Carolina squeezed into the postseason with a one-sided win at Atlanta in Week 17, finishing atop the NFC South and earning an automatic postseason berth – just the second team in NFL history to make the playoffs with a sub-.500 finish to the regular season.

“The market has had a lot to do with it in the past, as lines have been overinflated going against these single-win teams,” says Covers Expert Matt Fargo, who cashed in on Carolina Saturday.

Last year, single-digit win teams were a perfect 3-0 ATS in the playoff. The Green Bay Packers (8-7-1 SU) just covered as 3.5-point underdogs in a 23-20 Wild Card loss to the San Francisco 49ers, and the San Diego Chargers (9-7 SU) knocked off the Cincinnati Bengals 27-10 as 6.5-point pups in the Wild Card Round and covered in a 24-17 loss to the Denver Broncos as 8-point underdogs in the AFC Divisional Round.

The two most prominent single-win postseason teams in that seven-year span have been the New York Giants, who finished 9-7 in 2011 and rolled to a Super Bowl XLVI title on perfect 4-0 SU and ATS postseason record, and Arizona Cardinals, who went 9-7 in 2008 and finished 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS eventually losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-23 as 6.5-point underdogs in Super Bowl XLIII.

“I don't think there's any question it’s a result of the overreaction to regular season results,” says Covers Expert Sean Murphy, who also won big on the Panthers this past weekend. “Outside of that, I'm not sure there's any particular reason why single-digit win teams cover at such a high rate. When the playoffs kick off the slate is always wiped clean and that gives a lot of confidence to underdogs with an 'us against the world' mentality.”

As for the Panthers’ chances against the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks, the opening odds had Carolina as high as +11.5 and have since been bet down as low as +10.5. Seattle has won four in a row in this series, covering the spread in three of those games. The lone blemish came this season, with the Panthers covering as 6-point home underdogs in a 13-9 loss to the Seahawks in Week 8.

“The Panthers defense came into the postseason playing awesome and they had outgained six straight opponents, make that seven now,” says Fargo. “This week, though, we are seeing the typical single-win team getting a lot of points and the market is driving this number based on the poor Carolina record going up against the defending Super Bowl Champions.”

For those not wanting to deal with so many points, there could be value on the Panthers to win outright at CenturyLink Field Saturday. Teams with single-digit wins in the regular season are an impressive 17-10 SU since 2008.

Carolina is currently a +475 outright underdog. Just sayin’.

 

[CNOTES]

Playoff Analysis - Top 4


January 6, 2015




As the playoffs begin, those who earned the top two seeds in each conference have a key edge, as they get a bye the first week while watching the others duke it out. Sitting at home this past weekend were the Patriots, Broncos, Seahawks and Packers. Why is that significant? A year ago the four bye teams were the Broncos, Patriots, Seahawks and Panthers. The top AFC teams met in the title game, while the Seahawks went on to win the Super Bowl.

Gaining the bye is an advantage for teams to not only rest injured players, but to have two weeks to put together a game plan. Since 1990, 36 first and second round seeds have filled 48 Super Bowl slots and the No. 1 and 2 seeds, rested after the bye, have gone 63-21 straight up in their first games in the divisional round.

A last three years the rested teams have gone 9-3 SU and 5-7 against the spread. Last year Carolina lost at home to the 49ers, but the other three teams won, including the Pats routing the Colts, 43-22. Two years ago the Pats blew out Houston, 45-28 and the 49ers roasted Green Bay, 45-21.

The No. 1 seeded team in five of the last 10 years in the NFC (Eagles, Seahawks, Bears, Saints, Seahawks) wound up in the Super Bowl. In the AFC it's been a different story, as the only recent No. 1 seeds to make it were the 2003, '07, '11 Patriots, the '09 Colts and last year’s Broncos.

Four years ago the Pats lost to the NY Jets and two years ago Denver failed to win a game. Here's a look at the four teams that come into this weekend's playoff games rested with home field.

Denver Broncos (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS): Here they are again! Denver has QB Peyton Manning, but he is far off his record setting 2013 pace (51 TDs, 10 INTs) as the team looked for more balance on offense in the second half of the season, a curious move. GM John Elway keeps pointing out that he won his Super Bowls with balanced offenses, but the rules of the game were different then: they favor passing much more now, so why not play to your strength?

It hasn’t been a dominating second half with losses to the Patriots (43-21), Rams (22-7) and Bengals (37-28). The defense, though, looks better than last season when they were depleted by injuries going into the postseason. For totals players, Denver is on a 33-13-1 run over the total at home, plus 43-21-1 over against the AFC.

New England Patriots (12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS): New England was beat up with injuries and a bad defense one year ago but has completely flip-flopped. QB Tom Brady has top target TE Rob Gronkowski healthy and the offense has been balanced. New England has home field in the playoffs and is 8-0 ATS at home against a team with a winning road record.

The defense has been the big story, adding CBs Brandon Browner and Darell Revis in the offseason, then picking up DT Alan Branch and LB Akeem Ayers in mid-season. All have helped to vastly improve the defense. The Patriots are on a 39-19-1 run over the total at home.

Green Bay Packers: (12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS): Hard to believe this team started 1-2 back in September, getting mauled by Seattle (36-16) and shut down by Detroit (19-7). QB Aaron Rodgers enjoyed an MVP season and RB Eddie Lacy provides balance, topping 1,000 yards again. The defense struggled badly against the run in the first half of the season, but has been tough down the stretch. That will help in a potential rematch with Seattle. In that opener, Seattle had 207 yards rushing and Green Bay had 255 total yards. Rodger did not throw Richard Sherman’s way once. The Pack is 34-16-2 ATS at Lambeau Field and 22-8-1 ATS against teams with winning records.

Seattle Seahawks: (12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS): The Beast from the Northwest! Seattle used home field advantage and a pulverizing defense to win the Super Bowl last year and they have a shot to repeat. After some first half struggles with injuries and the Percy Harvin mess, Seattle got healthier on defense and has been dominating, top 5 against the run and the pass.

On offense QB Russell Wilson (20 TDs, 7 INTs) is smart and mobile, making good decisions, and RB Marshawn Lynch is a workhorse on the NFL’s top-ranked ground attack. The linebacking corps is outstanding and the secondary is better, tops in the NFL at defending the pass for the second straight season. The Seahawks are 36-15-1 ATS against the NFC and 36-16-1 ATS in their last 54 home games! Looks like the NFC goes through Seattle this January -- again!

 

[CNOTES]

Divisional Betting Trends


January 6, 2015


Since the inception of the 12-team NFL playoff format in 1990, the top two seeds in each conference have not only benefited from the luxury of hosting the wild-card round winner, but doing so with an added week of rest.


The well-rested hosts are 70-26 SU (straight up) overall but only 49-45-2 ATS (against the spread). However, what started as a huge point spread edge for home teams has diminished drastically over the past eight postseasons.

Consider: from 1990 through the 2005 playoffs these well-rested hosts compiled a hefty 51-13 SU and 37-23-2 ATS mark. Since 2006 they have gone a dismal 19-13 SU and 12-20 ATS.


That is as many losses (13) over the last eight postseasons as during the first 16, to show for their effort. Thus it appears that rest has turned to rust for these top two conference seeds.


In addition, No. 1 seeds in the NFC are 20-4 SU (.834) and 14-10 ATS (.583) in the Divisional Playoffs. No. 1 seeds in the AFC are 14-10 SU (.583) and 9-15 ATS (.378).


Situational wise, No. 1 seeds off a SU loss are 14-4 SU (.780) and 12-6 ATS (667).


No. 1 seeds off a SU win are 20-10 SU (667) and 11-19 ATS (35.7)


The most recent trend of note: since the 2006 playoffs all No. 1 seeds are 8-8 SU and 3-13 ATS in divisional round games.


Here are the No. 1 seeds have fared in Divisional round play since 1990:


NO. 1 SEEDS DIVISONAL ROUND (1990-2013)


Year AFC No. 1 Seed Divisional Result NFC No. 1 Seed Divisional Result


1990 Buffalo Beat Miami 44-34 San Francisco Beat Washington 28-10


1991 Buffalo Beat Kansas City 37-14 Washington Beat Atlanta 24-7


1992 Pittsburgh Lost to Buffalo 24-3 San Francisco Beat Washington 20-13


1993 Buffalo Beat Oakland 29-23 Dallas Beat Green Bay 27-17


1994 Pittsburgh Beat Cleveland 29-9 San Francisco Beat Chicago 44-15


1995 Kansas City Lost to Indinapolis 10-7 Dallas Beat Philadelphia 30-11


1996 Denver Lost to Jacksonville 30-27 Green Bay Beat San Francisco 35-14


1997 Kansas City Lost to Denver 14-10 San Francisco Beat Minnesota 38-22


1998 Denver Beat Miami 38-3 Minnesota Beat Arizona 41-21


1999 Jacksonville Beat Miami 62-7 St. Louis Beat Minnesota 49-37


2000 Tennessee Lost to Baltimore 24-10 N.Y. Giants Beat Philadelphia 20-10


2001 Pittsburgh Beat Baltimore 27-10 St. Louis Beat Green Bay 45-17


2002 Oakland Beat N.Y. Jets 30-10 Philadelphia Beat Atlanta 20-6


2003 New England Beat Tenneessee 17-14 Philadelphia Beat Green Bay 20-17 (OT)


2004 Pittsburgh Beat N.Y. Jets 20-17 (OT) Philadelphia Beat Minnesota 27-14


2005 Indianapolis Lost to Pittsburgh 21-18 Seattle Beat Washington 20-10


2006 San Diego Lost to New England 24-21 Chicago Beat Seattle 27-24 (OT)


2007 New England Beat Jacksonville 31-20 Dallas Lost to N.Y. Giants 21-17


2008 Tennessee Lost to Baltimore 13-10 N.Y. Giants Lost to Philadelphia 23-11


2009 Indianapolis Beat Baltimore 20-3 New Orleans Beat Arizona 45-14


2010 New England Lost to N.Y. Jets 28-21 Atlanta Lost to Green Bay 48-21


2011 New England Beat Denver 45-10 Green Bay Lost to N.Y. Giants 37-20


2012 Denver Lost to Baltimore 35-38 Atlanta Beat Seattle 30-28


2013 Denver Beat San Diego 24-17 Seattle Beat New Orleans 23-15


2014 New England - Seattle -

 

[CNOTES]

Divisional History & Notes


January 7, 2015




Division Round Playoff games have historically been fertile territory for home teams and favorites (almost always one and the same), their dominance has not been especially pronounced recent years.


Indeed, since the 2004 postseason, road dogs stand 24-17-1 against the number in these playoff games.


Remember some dynamics worth mentioning that are unique to this round.


Since 1990, when the playoffs expanded from 10 teams to 12, all Division Round hosts are off a "bye" and a week of rest.


And almost all of the "powerhouse" NFL teams in recent memory are from that first-round "bye" group, including 55 of the last 70 Super Bowl participants since 1978 (when the first-round "bye" was introduced; the last 70 excludes the '82 strike year).


But at least one top conference seed has met defeat in six of the past seven seasons, including Denver in the AFC two years ago.


Also identifiable with this round are one-sided results, which have recurred with regularity over the decades.


In fact, since 1975, more than half of these games have been decided by double-digit margins.


Favored teams laying a TD or more (usually representing the cream of the NFL crop) have covered at a 56% (43-34-2) in the Division Round since '75.


Following are the point-spread results in various spread categories of NFL Division Round playoff games since 1975.


Our "charting" begins with the 1975 season because, prior to then, playoff home teams were predetermined in a divisional rotation, as opposed to the better won-loss record.


A "margin of victory" chart for the games since 1975 is included as well.


DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF RESULTS (1975-2014)


Category Result


Favorites vs. line 78-73-4 (1 pick)


Favorites straight up 108-47


Favored by 0-3 points 10-15-1


Favored by 3½-6½ points 26-23-1


Favored by 7-9½ points 28-23-1


Favored by 10-13½ points 12-8


Favored by 14 points or more 3-3-1


Home teams straight up 110-46


Home teams vs. spread 80-72-4


Home favorites vs. spread 75-69-4


Home underdogs vs. spread 4-3


Home picks vs. spread 1-0


Over/under (since 1986) 61-51


DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF MARGINS OF VICTORY (1975-2014)


Category Result


1-3 points 36


4-6 points 12


7-10 points 28


11-13 points 13


14 points or more 67

 

[CNOTES]

2014 Season Reviews


January 7, 2015


The weeks following the conclusion of the NFL regular season can be newsworthy, even for teams that don't make the playoffs. Especially for franchises looking for new head coaches (at the moment there are six--Atlanta, Buffalo, Chicago, NY Jets, Oakland, San Francisco).


Thus, the NFL version of the "coaching carousel" figures to continuing spinning up to (and perhaps slightly after) the Super Bowl. Keep an eye on a collection of current NFL assistants that likely include Seattle d.c. Dan Quinn, Seattle o.c. Darrell Bevell, Arizona d.c. Todd Bowles, Denver o.c. Adam Gase, New England o.c. Josh McDaniels, Cincinanti o.c. Hue Jackson, and Detroit d.c. Teryl Austin, and a few others, many of whom likely to be interviewed when their playoff assignments are complete, which also could delay the eventual naming of head coaches by several teams.


Meanwhile, speculation also centers upon those entries that didn't qualify for the postseason, and what changes might be in the offing in the coming months. As we usually like to do at this time of January, a quick review of the past campaign is in order for the non-playoff qualifiers, especially those teams in the market for new head coaches (we'll include some other coaching possibilities beyond those assistants listed above in our team-by-team reviews). All of that before updating NFL Division Round history and notes.


First, a quick look at the offseason situations for those teams that did not qualify for the playoffs, listed in alphabetical order by conference. Straight-up records for 2014 are included.


AFC


Buffalo (9-7)...Despite posting a winning record for the first time since 2004 and avoiding the AFC East basement for the first time in six years, the Bills' NFL-long postseason drought extended to 15 seasons. Now they enter the offseason with a couple of serious issues. First, at QB, where effective stop-gap Kyle Orton has retired, likely forcing Buffalo to search for a new pilot via the draft or free agency with EJ Manuel no longer appearing a long-term answer. But the real shocker came last week when HC Doug Marrone resigned to pursue job openings elsewhere after the recent sale of the franchise to Terry and Kim Pegula, owners of the NHL Sabres. With front office and coaching changes aplenty, and a big question at QB, the Bills, even with some undeniable positives (specifically a "D" that recorded an NFL-high 54 sacks, and promising skill-position weaponry like Clemson rookie WR Sammie Watkins), have several questions to be answered entering 2015.


Cleveland (7-9)...After an early-November Thursday beatdown of the Bengals in Cincinnati, the Browns led the AFC North and were briefly the talk of the NFL. But things fell apart shortly thereafter to the point where HC Mike Pettine and GM Ray Farmer nearly lost their jobs, as impatient owner Jimmy Haslam toyed with the idea of a fourth Cleveland HC and GM in as many seasons. The steps backward in December have put the Brownies in a familiar place, on the ropes, still with significant questions at QB with Brian Hoyer certain to test the FA waters and Johnny Manziel's maturity issues jeopardizing his future in C-Town. Troubled WR Josh Gordon, suspended again at the end of the regular season, is unlikely to return. After finishing last in completion percentage and third-down conversions, the "O" figures to command most of the offseason attention. At least the D" needs less fine-tuning.


Houston (9-7)...New HC Bill O'Brien proved a shrewd hire by owner Bob McNair, keeping the Texans alive in the AFC playoff chase until the final weekend and forging a 7-win improvement from the 2-14 train wreck of 2013. O'Brien did so with plenty of help from MVP candidate DE J.J. Watt (who also caught three TD passes!) and four different QBs, ending the season winning twice with Case Keenum, released in the summer but signed in an emergency from the Rams' practice squad after Ryan Mallett, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Tom Savage all went down in rapid-fire succession late in the season. We'll see if O'Brien sticks with his current options at QB or looks in a different direction in the offseason, where Houston is likely to be active in free agency, especially in the secondary with several of the current DBs now out of contract. Another situation to watch will be that of vet WR Andre Johnson, due a sizable payout in 2015, but a likely candidate to be released unless his contract is restructured.


Jacksonville (3-13)...Though 2nd-year HC Gus Bradley continued to show promise in 2014, the Jags actually regressed in the W-L column (from 4-12 to 3-13). Some of that can be blamed on the growing pains of rookie QB Blake Bortles, who assumed the starting role a bit sooner than expected in what turned out to be an awkward transition from vet Chad Henne. The Jags would finish at or near the bottom of most offensive categories, but at least believe they finally have their franchise QB in place. And the "D" would keep the Jags in most of their games after September. While there is still organizational support for Bradley, who appears to be building a stable foundation, a move toward .500 will nonetheless be expected in 2015. Look for Jags to be seeking upgrades in the OL and secondary in free agency and/or the draft.


Kansas City (9-7)...It was a bittersweet ending for the Chiefs in 2014, beating the Chargers in the finale behind backup QB Chase Daniel, denying San Diego an AFC wildcard while technically jumping ahead of the Bolts to second in the AFC West. But KC would also barely miss the playoffs, as late-season losses at Oakland, Arizona, and Pittsburgh would in the end prevent Andy Reid from back-to-back postseason visits. Reid's offseason priorities are clear, including upgrades at WR after none caught a TD pass from either Alex Smith or Daniel the entire season, as well as along the OL. The Chiefs have a tight cap and will also have to do some creative contract adjustments (perhaps requesting vets such as LB Tamba Hali and WR Dwayne Bowe to take pay cuts) in order to make a stab at re-signing FA LB Justin Houston, the NFL sack leader.


Miami (8-8)...More than a few NFL observers believe owner Stephen Ross acted impulsively in the euphoria of a penultimate win over the Vikings when announcing that HC Joe Philbin (23-25 with no playoff appearances in three seasons) would return for a fourth season in 2015. Miami would subsequently lose to the Jets to complete a December fade for the second year in a row. (Sources have also indicated that Jim Harbaugh might have taken a hard look at Miami had the Dolphin job opened). The good news is that Ryan Tannehill seems established as a legit NFL QB. But Miami enters the offseason looking for upgrades along both lines, while there remains a chance Philbin might part with d.c. Kevin Coyle after the stop unit's late-season collapse.


NY Jets (4-12)...By midseason it was apparent that owner Woody Johnson would be parting ways with HC Rex Ryan and GM John Idzik, which was confirmed on "Black Monday." Johnson has enlisted NFL front-office vets Charlie Casserly and Ron Wolf in an advisory capacity, and they are likely to help Woody arrive at a GM selection before naming a new coach; sources say both positions could be filled within the week (ex-Bills coach Doug Marrone is considered a possibility for the latter). Expect a major roster overhaul to commence thereafter, with more offensive playmakers to be targeted after Eric Decker and Percy Harvin were added this past season. Those moves could also include a new QB, perhaps by moving up in the draft for a chance at Oregon's Marcus Mariota or Florida State's Jameis Winston (both expected to declare for the draft), though there might be a chance Geno Smith will be brought back for another shot. The new GM and coach will at least have the luxury of considerable cap space, allowing the Jets to make a splash in free agency if they wish.


Oakland (3-13)...For a long while it seemed as if the Raiders might challenge the 2008 Detroit Lions' regular-season mark for futility (0-16) before a mild late-season surge resulted in home wins over the Chiefs, 49ers, and Bills. Those results have given interim HC Tony Sparano a shot at keeping the job, since the team became more competitive after Dennis Allen walked the plank following an 0-4 start. Owner Mark Davis is also reportedly mulling what to do about GM Reggie McKenzie, hired with Allen after the 2011 season when Davis would regrettably jettison HC Hue Jackson, who almost took Oakland to the playoffs. All is not completely bleak in Oakland, however, as some nice potential building blocks (rookies QB Derek Carr & LB Khalil Mack, and 1st-year RB Latavius Murray) emerged in 2014. Before anything, however, Davis has to find his coach for 2015.


San Diego (9-7)...The Chargers matched their 2013 record for second-year HC Mike McKoy, but this time it wasn't good enough to reach the playoffs. Late-season rallies at Baltimore and San Francisco had given the Bolts a chance to squeeze into the postseason field as the year before, but a Week 17 loss in Kansas City wrecked those plans. At QB, Philip Rivers still has some gas in his tank but couldn't maintain his early-season pace, due in part to an inconsistent infantry and lineup shuffling along the OL. By the end of the season the Charger ground game had disappeared, and, with RB Ryan Mathews slated for free agency, the Bolts must decide if his injury history is worth the risk, or hope U of Buffalo rookie Branden Oliver (562 YR) and vet Donald Brown can carry the load. The Mathews decision looms large in offseason plans that also likely include upgrades along both lines.


Tennessee (2-14)...After a promising 26-10 win over the Chiefs in Week One, the Titans won only once more (a 16-14 squeaker over the Jags) in a massively disappointing season for first-year HC Ken Whisenhunt, whose stern, tough-love style apparently didn't resonate. It was the franchise's worst record since 1994 when the team was based in Houston. After giving up on injury-prone, FA-to-be QB Jake Locker at midseason, Whisenhunt gave an audition to LSU rookie Zach Mettenberger, who showed some promise but only had a few weeks at the helm of the offense before going down with injury. With Locker surely walking, did Whisenhunt see enough in Mettenberger to hand him the job in 2015, or will the coach look elsewhere at QB? There have been rumors that Jay Cutler could return to Nashville (where he starred in college at Vandy), and Tennessee does have the second choice in the draft, where at worst it could have either Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston, if both declare as expected. Roster needs are many, however, with recent attempts to upgrade the OL and locating a featured pass rusher having failed. Lots of work to do at LP Field.


NFC


Atlanta (6-10)...In the end it was a pretty easy call for owner Arthur Blank to jettison HC Mike Smith, under whom the Falcs had regressed over the past two years after playoff berths in four of the previous five seasons. Atlanta stayed in the NFC South race until Week 17 in 2014 only because the division was so bad, and a 34-3 blowout by Carolina in the South-decider would seal Smith's fate. The operation became stale the past couple of seasons, and the new coach will have some reclamation work to do with a "D" that ranked near the bottom in all relevant stats. (Interestingly, Rex Ryan is apparently being given a serious look by Blank and GM Thomas Dimitroff, who is being retained.) Specific offseason target areas are likely to be along the OL to bolster pass protection and in the defensive front seven, where a pass-rush specialist or two could be used. The new coach will inherit a nice nucleus of offensive weapons, with QB Matt Ryan entering his prime years and a dangerous receiving corps led by Julio Jones and Roddy White. This might not be the worst job for a coach to inherit.


Chicago (5-11)...Where to start? Dysfunction with a capital "D" at Soldier Field led to the Bears hitting the eject button on both HC Marc Trestman and GM Phil Emery at the conclusion of the season. After finding their new coach and GM, Chicago must decide what to do with QB Jay Cutler, still owned $15.5 million in 2015, which could make him difficult to trade. The aging roster lacks speed and has glaring deficiencies almost everywhere. The bullet-riddled defense, however, is likely to be the focus in free agency and the draft, with safety and MLB likely to get plenty of attention.


Minnesota (7-9)...No playoff berth again in Minneapolis, but plenty of feel-good with the Vikes, who seemed to find both their coach (Mike Zimmer) and QB (Louisville rookie Teddy Bridgewater) for the future in an uplifting 7-9 campaign that was better than most expected. There were some disappointments, with the distractions of RB Adrian Peterson at the top of the list; a decision on what course Minnesota takes with AP will be a much-watched development in the offseason. Regardless of what happens with Peterson, expect the Vikes to look for more playmakers to surround Bridgewater, who appears a star-on-the-rise after completing more than 70% of his passes over the final five weeks and engineering four comeback wins. Note that the Vikes also have one more season in the Minnesota Gophers' TCF Bank Stadium before their new retractable-roof home, on the site of the old Metrodome, is completed.


New Orleans (7-9)...A candidate for league's most disappointing team, the Saints had a golden opportunity to reclaim the NFC South with no one in the division getting above .500, but a puzzling inability to win at the Superdome (where New Orleans lost its last five games) condemned Sean Payton's team to also-ran status. The defense was largely to blame for the collapse, and it remains to be seen if d.c. Rob Ryan survives a staff purge by Payton that has already included three different assistants since the conclusion of the regular season. It will also be up to Payton and GM Mickey Loomis to determine if the roster needs an overhaul or merely a few tweaks in the offseason. The Saints enter the offseason with limited salary flexibility thanks in part to the contract of QB Drew Brees, who projects a staggering $26 million against the cap.


NY Giants (6-10)...In the end, the season was a letdown for the G-Men, hoping for a revival with new o.c. Ben McAdoo, who imported the West Coast offense from Green Bay. Which seemed a decent fit for Eli Manning and the talent on hand at MetLife. But by the time Eli got comfy in the offense, and other weapons emerged, it was too late to make a run at the playoffs after a 7-game midseason losing streak. Along the way, however, the Giants discovered a new highlight-reel WR in LSU rookie Odell Beckham, Jr., who became an overnight sensation with his circus catches, while BC rookie RB Andre Williams also emerged as a force in December. Vet HC Tom Coughlin returns for 2015, though already under what looks like a must-win edict (also for GM Jerry Reese) from co-owner John Mara. The status of d.c. Perry Fewell remains up in the air. Improving the defense (especially vs. the run) will be an offseason imperative. Another situation to watch involves star DE Jason Pierre-Paul, a FA-to-be who has stated he wants to stay at MetLife but will not take a hometown discount.


Philadelphia (10-6)...What looked to be a near-certain playoff berth after a rout of the Cowboys in Arlington on Thanksgiving would instead disintegrate with three subsequent December losses that knocked the Birds out of the postseason. In the immediate aftermath, VP of Player Personnel Tom Gamble was moved out, with HC Chip Kelly now apparently controlling the personnel levers (supposedly much as Pete Carroll does in Seattle). Or, does the ouster of Gamble, hand-picked by Kelly, signal a rift with GM Howie Roseman? Could it precede a Kelly move elsewhere? (Owner Jeffrey Lurie would have to give his blessing to Kelly taking another job in the NFL while under contract, though Kelly could move back to the college ranks without Lurie's approval.) Stay tuned. Assuming Kelly stays, he will want more clarity in his QB situation, especially with Nick Foles having a somewhat disappointing 2014 before his broken collarbone. Mark Sanchez was on a one-year deal and will be a free agent, with no indication that the Eagles want him back at the Linc. Somewhere along the line in the offseason, the Birds will also likely address concerns at cornerback.


St. Louis (6-10)...Stuck in the NFC's (if not the NFL's) toughest division, the Rams never could overcome the preseason knee injury suffered by QB Sam Bradford, alternating between journeyman Shaun Hill and backup Austin Davis throughout the fall. There were some highlights, including home wins over last year's Super Bowl teams Seattle and Denver, and a road win at San Francisco, plus a 52-0 rout of Oakland, but consistency was always an issue. Moving forward, what to do about Bradford, who has lost an inordinate amount of time to injuries, must be addressed, but QB play was only part of the offensive problems that included too few big plays by the wideouts and the ground game taking to long to evolve (though Auburn rookie RB Tre Mason ran with some flair). In his three seasons, HC Jeff Fisher has been cursed by bad luck, but has yet to win more than seven games, and will likely be on the hot seat in 2015 if the Rams can't make a strong move toward the playoffs.


San Francisco (8-8)...We know why Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers decided to part ways, though continue to believe it is a most-regrettable development, as the fit seemed perfect on so many levels for the 49ers. Only it wasn't. Injuries and suspensions on defense and the season-long uncertainty with the coaching staff helped torpedo the Niners' chance for another playoff berth. The new regime will have to repair an offense that went wrong from the preseason, as the notion of turning Colin Kaepernick into a pocket passer helped undermine Harbaugh and o.c. Greg Roman. Beyond fixing the offense, the new coach and GM Trent Baalke are going to be dealing with plenty of big-name free agents who could walk, including RB Frank Gore, WR Michael Crabtree, G Mike Iupati, and both starting CBs. An interesting coaching name to spin out of the 49er rumor mill is none other than Mike Shanahan, at one time a Niner aide in the best George Seifert years and reportedly in a four-hour meeting with team officials last week.


Tampa Bay (2-14)...New HC Lovie Smith at least seemed to restore a sense of order to the franchise that spun out of control last season following Greg Schiano's dismissal, but Lovie's order was not reflected in the SU record that dipped to 2-14. Smith was not hired to oversee an extended rebuild project, so will be expected to show significant improvement in 2015 in an NFC South division that is full of question marks. With the first pick in the draft, the Bucs could certainly go for a QB (likely Oregon's Heisman winner Marcus Mariota, if he declares as expected), though Tampa Bay might be tempted to trade down as long as it can address QB issues that cannot be left to endure for another year with Josh McCown and Mike Glennon. The Bucs are also in the market for a new offensive coordinator after ex-Cal HC Jeff Tedford had to step down for health reasons and QB coach Marcus Arroyo leading a collaborative, and often awkward, play-calling effort.


Washington (4-12)...In the end, first-year HC Jay Gruden narrowly missed losing his job (owner Dan Snyder has canned coaches after one year before) as the Skins stumbled to a 4-12 mark, their fifth season of double-digit losses in the last six campaigns. Where the Skins go at QB has to be addressed, because Robert Griffin III's skill set doesn't seem to match Gruden's offense; they either need to learn to co-exist, or one (or both) must go. Owner Snyder, for what it's worth, is also said to be losing his affinity for RG III, who has not looked the same since his most-recent knee injuries. At QB beyond Griffin, neither Colt McCoy nor Kirk Cousins appear long-term answers. Beyond the QB situation, the OL (which allowed 58 sacks, 41 in the last eight games) and the entire defense could be in line for a major makeover. Defensive coordinator Jim Haslett has already been released, so Gruden is in the market for a new d.c., too.

 

[CNOTES]

Panthers starting DT Lotulelei out


January 7, 2015


CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) - The Panthers will be without starting defensive tackle Star Lotulelei for Saturday night's NFC divisional playoff game against Seattle after undergoing surgery Wednesday to repair a broken bone in his foot.


Coach Ron Rivera said Lotulelei injured his foot late in Tuesday's practice. Rivera did not say which foot is injured.


Rivera said Lotulelei wouldn't be available for the NFC championship game, but might be ready to play if the Panthers were to reach the Super Bowl. Carolina would need two road wins to get there.


''We will miss Star, but we have guys that will be able to step in and do a very good job,'' Rivera said.


Rivera said Wednesday he expects veteran Colin Cole will start alongside Kawann Short.


The 6-foot-2, 325-pound Lotulelei has been critical to the team's improved run defense down the stretch. He has 25 tackles this season, but is important because he takes up double-teams in the middle of the defensive line, allowing All-Pro linebacker Luke Kuechly a chance to run and make plays. Kuechly led the NFL in tackles this season with 153.


Lotulelei's best game came against Atlanta in the season finale when he had seven tackles and two sacks on Matt Ryan as the Panthers clinched the NFC South with a 34-3 win.


''He had a very dominating performance that game, winning at the attack,'' Rivera said.


''Star has really come on the last few weeks for us and has been playing real well,'' Kuechly said. ''It's unfortunate that he won't be playing. ... It's kind of been the theme to our season. One dude can't play and the next dude has to jump up and play.''


Cole has started 10 games this season for the Panthers and had 12 tackles.


''Colin Cole will assume a bigger role for us,'' Rivera said. ''He's been a solid and steady force for us, such a space-eater inside, holds the double team at the point of attack and helps to allow our linebackers to run.''


Rivera said Kyle Love could be active against Seattle. He was inactive for Carolina's 27-16 win over Arizona on Saturday night.


Panthers starting wide receiver Philly Brown missed his second straight day of practice with a shoulder injury, but did catch passes on the sideline. Rivera said Brown's status will depend on if he can demonstrate his shoulder is strong enough to allow him to block.


''We don't want to put a guy out there that can't protect himself,'' Rivera said.


Brenton Bersin would start if Brown can't play. If Brown is out, Rivera said he would consider elevating wide receiver Stephen Hill from the practice squad to be used as the No. 4 receiver.

 

[CNOTES]

Rodgers misses practice, expected to start


January 7, 2015


GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) - Aaron Rodgers didn't practice Wednesday because of a calf injury, though coach Mike McCarthy still expects his starting quarterback to be ready on Sunday when the Green Bay Packers host Dallas.


McCarthy said the plan Wednesday for Rodgers was to stay exclusively in the training room. The team will evaluate again Thursday to determine if he can practice.


McCarthy said Rodgers otherwise is getting stronger, and that he is prepared with the game plan.


Rodgers first injured the calf three weeks ago in a win against Tampa Bay. He had to be taken to the locker room on a cart two weeks ago in the second quarter against Detroit before limping back on the field in the third quarter to help lead the Packers to victory.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL > (119) INDIANAPOLIS@ (120) DENVER | 01/11/2015 - 04:40 PM
Play ON INDIANAPOLIS using the money line when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 20 Wins and 6 Losses for the last two seasons (+16.65 units)

NFL > (111) BALTIMORE@ (112) NEW ENGLAND | 01/10/2015 - 04:35 PM
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using the money line against conference opponents
The record is 12 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+10.8 units)


NFL > (119) INDIANAPOLIS@ (120) DENVER | 01/11/2015 - 04:40 PM
Play ON DENVER in the first half in games played on a grass field
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the this season (+8.9 units)


NFL > (117) DALLAS@ (118) GREEN BAY | 01/11/2015 - 01:05 PM
Play ON DALLAS using the money line in road lined games
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses for the this season (+9.7 units)


NFL > (111) BALTIMORE@ (112) NEW ENGLAND | 01/10/2015 - 04:35 PM
Play UNDER BALTIMORE on the total against conference opponents
The record is 2 Overs and 11 Unders for the this season (+8.8 units)


NFL > (117) DALLAS@ (118) GREEN BAY | 01/11/2015 - 01:05 PM
Play ON GREEN BAY in the first half as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 11 Wins and 2 Losses for the this season (+8.8 units)


NFL > (119) INDIANAPOLIS@ (120) DENVER | 01/11/2015 - 04:40 PM
Play ON DENVER using the against the spread when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
The record is 16 Wins and 3 Losses for the since 1992 (+12.7 units)


NFL > (117) DALLAS@ (118) GREEN BAY | 01/11/2015 - 01:05 PM
Play ON GREEN BAY using the against the spread when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
The record is 33 Wins and 11 Losses for the since 1992 (+20.9 units)


NFL > (113) CAROLINA@ (114) SEATTLE | 01/10/2015 - 08:15 PM
Play ON CAROLINA using the money line after 2 or more consecutive wins
The record is 12 Wins and 3 Losses for the last three seasons (+10.15 units)

NFL > (119) INDIANAPOLIS@ (120) DENVER | 01/11/2015 - 04:40 PM
Play ON DENVER using the teaser in games played on a grass field
The record is 34 Wins and 3 Losses for the last three seasons (+30.7 units)

NFL > (119) INDIANAPOLIS@ (120) DENVER | 01/11/2015 - 04:40 PM
Play OVER DENVER on the total when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 104 Overs and 54 Unders for the since 1992 (+44.6 units)


NFL > (113) CAROLINA@ (114) SEATTLE | 01/10/2015 - 08:15 PM
Play ON SEATTLE using the against the spread in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
The record is 11 Wins and 2 Losses for the last two seasons (+8.8 units)


NFL > (111) BALTIMORE @ (112) NEW ENGLAND | 01/10/2015 - 04:35 PM
Line: NEW ENGLAND -7 StatFox PowerLine: NEW ENGLAND -9
Edge On: NEW ENGLAND (2)


NFL > (113) CAROLINA @ (114) SEATTLE | 01/10/2015 - 08:15 PM
Line: SEATTLE -10.5 StatFox PowerLine: SEATTLE -14
Edge On: SEATTLE (3.5)


NFL > (117) DALLAS @ (118) GREEN BAY | 01/11/2015 - 01:05 PM
Line: GREEN BAY -6 StatFox PowerLine: GREEN BAY -3
Edge On: GREEN BAY (3)


NFL > (119) INDIANAPOLIS @ (120) DENVER | 01/11/2015 - 04:40 PM
Line: DENVER -7 StatFox PowerLine: DENVER -11
Edge On: DENVER (4)