Bentgrass Greens
Favors Big Hitters
Iron players 175-200 range
Reed,Cantaly,Finau,Scott,Speith,Woods,Rose (All guys who Putt much better on Bent) I find the greens to be like Augusta. And quite a few Green Jackets out of those guys. And all have good history with even wins on this course.
I comp the course to The Memorial. Guys who play the Memorial the same year and place top 13 tend to do the same here. 2018 had 8 golfers I believe, who T13 Memorial and then T13 Boston. Field isn’t as strong in Memorial though.
Past winning score has been -15 6 of last 10. No winning score under -15. Scorers course.
It’s Golf, so take any of this fwiw.
Favors Big Hitters
Iron players 175-200 range
Reed,Cantaly,Finau,Scott,Speith,Woods,Rose (All guys who Putt much better on Bent) I find the greens to be like Augusta. And quite a few Green Jackets out of those guys. And all have good history with even wins on this course.
I comp the course to The Memorial. Guys who play the Memorial the same year and place top 13 tend to do the same here. 2018 had 8 golfers I believe, who T13 Memorial and then T13 Boston. Field isn’t as strong in Memorial though.
Past winning score has been -15 6 of last 10. No winning score under -15. Scorers course.
It’s Golf, so take any of this fwiw.
I like Finau a lot. But I ask the same thing. Can he close or chase Sunday? He is in the cusp of his Big win.
Finau-
Great form, Long, good long approach, putter much better these days.
Plays good here, Memorial and Augusta. Nice solid records at All
Also has one of the top ball trajectory shots. Good thing to have on Fast Smooth greens. Drop em in better.
Rory's putter has been holding him back too IMO. Don't have the numbers to back it up but eye test from what I've watched (which is a lot), his speed has just been WAY off. Not saying he can't win but personally can't see backing him at that price, would need to be +2000 or higher. Lotta guys in that price range I'd be more comfortable backing...probably Xander for my money.
My NT take...
Long 2nd-shot golf course so key in on the guys that are great long iron players. Guys that have recently won here (Bryson, JT, Webb, Rickie, Stenson, Tiger) are great at 175-225 irons. And they say this week is widest fairways they've ever had so guys off the tee (Bryson, Rory, Rahm off top of my head) are best plays. Bentgrass putting very different than bermuda which most of these guys played in Memphis but very similar to the poa in San Fran (Morikawa, DJ, Rory, Day best bentgrass).
Bryson's 1st in SG:OTT, 13th in SG:APP 175-200 and 9th in SG:APP 200+ so I think he's rightful favorite as he's the only guys in top 20 in all 3 of those stats
not many higher end guys in the "best bengrass putting" stats but in last 6 tourneys the top guys, in order, are Na > Mccarthy > English > Spieth > BillyHo > Kisner > Werenski > Sneds > Reed
Werenski is also one of the top guys with irons (#2 in 200+ APP) so I'd put him and Grillo (horrible putter) as best of the super longshots 175/1+ but don't expect a longshot winner. Only one of last 15 (keegan bradley) playoff tourney winners were longshots. The other 14 were JT 2x, Rory 3x, Reed 2x, Bryson 2x, DJ 2x, Xander, Tiger, and then medium longshot Leishman
I'll be betting Bryson in some h2h for sure....unlikeable bitch but perfect course fit and you won't have to worry about him using the wedges
(as always I'm rooting for JT)
Long 2nd-shot golf course so key in on the guys that are great long iron players. Guys that have recently won here (Bryson, JT, Webb, Rickie, Stenson, Tiger) are great at 175-225 irons. And they say this week is widest fairways they've ever had so guys off the tee (Bryson, Rory, Rahm off top of my head) are best plays. Bentgrass putting very different than bermuda which most of these guys played in Memphis but very similar to the poa in San Fran (Morikawa, DJ, Rory, Day best bentgrass).
Bryson's 1st in SG:OTT, 13th in SG:APP 175-200 and 9th in SG:APP 200+ so I think he's rightful favorite as he's the only guys in top 20 in all 3 of those stats
not many higher end guys in the "best bengrass putting" stats but in last 6 tourneys the top guys, in order, are Na > Mccarthy > English > Spieth > BillyHo > Kisner > Werenski > Sneds > Reed
Werenski is also one of the top guys with irons (#2 in 200+ APP) so I'd put him and Grillo (horrible putter) as best of the super longshots 175/1+ but don't expect a longshot winner. Only one of last 15 (keegan bradley) playoff tourney winners were longshots. The other 14 were JT 2x, Rory 3x, Reed 2x, Bryson 2x, DJ 2x, Xander, Tiger, and then medium longshot Leishman
I'll be betting Bryson in some h2h for sure....unlikeable bitch but perfect course fit and you won't have to worry about him using the wedges
(as always I'm rooting for JT)
yeah the intermediates i like are hatton and ancer in that 45/1-55/1 range. anyone betting brooks, rickie, spieth hates money. brooks set to play 7th straight week and looked dead tired in NC...he won't make the cut here
if Hatton can putt this week he'll be top 10. ancer always a fav play of mine and he led on sunday at this course the last time they were here. both were hot picks for memorial and memphis but after disappointing there and at PGA nobody is on them now
tee-to-green world elite with 2020 numbers strong, yet again. Around the greens and esp., with the short putts he's borderline unwatchable . It's fuckin' killing him. Hoping a good tournament, get some confidence ..the two biggies are later ; US Open and Augusta.
look at this;
putting form 3 feet- 166th
putting form 4 feet - 123 th
putting from 5 feet- 78th (got worse after today)
battling demons
today he missed two 5 footers and a 3-footer.............fuckin' call Faxon.....geez
Scheffler shoots 59 and DJ shoots 60.....wtf
some big names MIA....and a few even gone fishing for Saturday inclduing DeChambeau, Finau and Morikawa. Will J Spieth ever win again on tour?
DJ with a 2-shot lead headed to the weekend. Iron play has been nothing short of spectacular. GIRs- rd 1- 83% , rd 2- 94%. Has the power fade dialed in
had a shot at 59 at the par 5 18th;
<section class="o-CustomRTE">'Along with the television commentators, Johnson said he probably should have used a 3-wood on the 18th tee.
</section>
<section class="o-CustomRTE"> "It is what it is," he said. "I was trying to get up there and get a short iron in my hand. Unfortunately, if [the drive] had been down in the flat of the rough I would have been fine and could have knocked it on. To be below my feet was a tough shot."'
</section>
some big names MIA....and a few even gone fishing for Saturday inclduing DeChambeau, Finau and Morikawa. Will J Spieth ever win again on tour?
DJ with a 2-shot lead headed to the weekend. Iron play has been nothing short of spectacular. GIRs- rd 1- 83% , rd 2- 94%. Has the power fade dialed in
had a shot at 59 at the par 5 18th;
<section class="o-CustomRTE">'Along with the television commentators, Johnson said he probably should have used a 3-wood on the 18th tee.
</section>
<section class="o-CustomRTE"> "It is what it is," he said. "I was trying to get up there and get a short iron in my hand. Unfortunately, if [the drive] had been down in the flat of the rough I would have been fine and could have knocked it on. To be below my feet was a tough shot."'
</section>
Picking the winner in golf has to be one of the harder things to do. You want your player to be playing ok but not too good. Then turn that ok....into a solid 4 days.
I also think you dont want them to be playing too good.......because golfers know that doesnt last for long. Horshel last week played great and didnt quite win. This week missed the cut. Morikawa having a let down after a major win....missed the cut. Doc and Hermann last week both played great and miss the cut.
One strategy i like in head to head is play against someone that went low the day before. The line is like they are going to do it again. That doesnt seem to happen.
I also think you dont want them to be playing too good.......because golfers know that doesnt last for long. Horshel last week played great and didnt quite win. This week missed the cut. Morikawa having a let down after a major win....missed the cut. Doc and Hermann last week both played great and miss the cut.
One strategy i like in head to head is play against someone that went low the day before. The line is like they are going to do it again. That doesnt seem to happen.
Hoping this comes true today. Have several in contention that are clicking along nicely...hoping Scheffler and DJ do nothing special today.
Berger 33/1
Si Woo Kim 80/1
Harris English 80/1
Hatton charging now too, have him 60/1
Added Webb at 30/1 this morning. He would have to go stupid low this weekend though but is capable.
Also added Fleetwood 100/1. Guy can go nuts so worth a flyer I think.
In any event, here's to hoping DJ shoots a 73!
I took English in a head to head with DJ today. English was my long shot pick before the tournament. Should have played him to lead after the first round...hahaha
Harry...you have some guys in contention. GL with them. I agree about Webb having the ability to go low 2 days and win it all. He seems solid all round now that he is putting better. Nothing ruins a golfer more than losing their ability to putt. Missing 3 to 5 footers eventually gets into the rest of their game. Webb went from 15th in putting in 2014 to 174th in 2015 and 177th in 2016 when the rules changed on the belly putters. Now he is back with his putting and is 12th in strokes gained putting. He can thank Tim Clark for suggesting a grip change.
Harry...you have some guys in contention. GL with them. I agree about Webb having the ability to go low 2 days and win it all. He seems solid all round now that he is putting better. Nothing ruins a golfer more than losing their ability to putt. Missing 3 to 5 footers eventually gets into the rest of their game. Webb went from 15th in putting in 2014 to 174th in 2015 and 177th in 2016 when the rules changed on the belly putters. Now he is back with his putting and is 12th in strokes gained putting. He can thank Tim Clark for suggesting a grip change.
