Brainiac’s Winter Sports

[TheBrainiac]

AMAZING JOB , grats !

I lost a little bit going 3-2 , will update after race today .


19 February

Start time : 01:00 AM PST

Biathlon - Mixed: World Championships PyeongChang - Mixed Relay

WINNER

My pick is RUSSIA to win

Odds : 3.00

Where : bet365

1.8 units to win 3.6 units

 

[chriscol]

how would you rank the teams today? roughly

i would go with

solid

Russia, Germany, Sweden, France, Norway with ??

good
Ukraine

medium
Belarus, Slov, Italy (not sure, maybe worse)

not good
Poland

somehow for me Sweden and France looks surprising good...Norway seemed not to care about this last year..Bjorndalen another race???
How s your take on Italy? they all have not good results here.
Poland the same...all disappointing

 

[Frankinho]

Good view on France and Sweden man, I skipped this as I did not have time to check the start lists of each team.

I have some for the Nordic combined though.

singles:
Kircheisen over Stecher @ 1.72
Ryynanen over Klapfer @ 1.68
Lodwick over Schmid @ 1.70
Frenzel over Spillane @ 2.20
Moan over Tande @ 2.50

Schmid became 3rd in the only other mass start of this season, but overall Lodwick is the better one.
Frenzel comes up with better performances than Lodwick too, while Lodwick took part in less events.
Moan is by FAR better than Tande all season long, I have no idea why the odds are 2.50

I also have a parlay with:
Koivuranta over Demong @ 1.46
Gruber over Edelmann @ 1.50
Takahashi over Rian @ 1.53
Chappuis over Ackermann @ 1.50
Churavy over Kobayashi @ 1.53

These all look solid to me, according to odds and research

So I also made a parlay of all these + my singles
and also a parlay of all but instead of Frenzel and Moan I have Spillane and Tande as the bookie has them as favourite, just to cover it up.

 

[TheBrainiac]

21 February

Start time : 00:15 AM PST

Biathlon - Men: World Championships 15km Mass Start PyeongChang

Halvard Hanevold vs Martin Fourcade

My pick is Martin Fourcade to FINISH AHEAD

Odds : + 103

Where : pinnaclesports

2.5 units to win 2.57 units




21 February

Start time : 00:15 AM PST

Biathlon - Men: World Championships 15km Mass Start PyeongChang

Tomasz Sikora vs Maxim Tchoudov

My pick is Tomasz Sikora to FINISH AHEAD

Odds : - 143

Where : pinnaclesports

3.57 units to win 2.5 units



21 February

Start time : 00:15 AM PST

Biathlon - Men: World Championships 15km Mass Start PyeongChang

Halvard Hanevold vs Carl Johan Bergman

My pick is Carl Johan Bergman to FINISH AHEAD

Odds : + 100

Where : unibet

3 units to win 3 units


21 February

Start time : 00:15 AM PST

Biathlon - Men: World Championships 15km Mass Start PyeongChang

Markus Windisch vs Tim Burke

My pick is Tim Burke to FINISH AHEAD

Odds : - 125

Where : pinnaclesports

3.12 units to win 2.5 units

 

[chriscol]

i have
Deryzemlia over delorenzi @ 1.75
Bergmann over tcherezov @ 2.18
Sikora over Svendson @ 1.78
Tschudov over Tscherezov @ 1.56 BIG


you can give me your view on Derytemlia (i really like him today) and Tscherezov (it s a big fade for me)

odds say different view, so i am wondering...
i also dont expect Svendson to do well

 

[chriscol]

His Norwegian teammate Emil Hegle Svendsen will compete but remains modest: "I am going to start only because I´m the defending champion and automatically qualified. Otherwise I wouldn't take away the chance of one of my teammates. But I don´t expect anything." Svendsen, two-time World Champion in 2008, has not been able to compete in Pyeongchang so far because he has been ill.

 

[TheBrainiac]

Not sure what to say about Tcherezov as he can finish with low amount of errors , eg 1 error in 20 km but he is pretty slow . Deryzemlya very solid so far , think he has good chance to finish well today . Sumann and Burke promissed strong results today ...

 

[TheBrainiac]

21 February

Start time : 00:15 AM PST

Biathlon - Men: World Championships 15km Mass Start PyeongChang

Thomas Sikora vs Emil Hegle Svendsen

My pick is Thomas Sikora to FINISH AHEAD

Odds : - 140

Where : pinnaclesports

4.2 units to win 3 units



21 February

Start time : 00:15 AM PST

Biathlon - Men: World Championships 15km Mass Start PyeongChang

Emil Hegle Svendsen vs Michael Greis

My pick is Michael Greis to FINISH AHEAD

Odds : + 111

Where : pinnaclesports

3 units to win 3.33 units


Ok , lets try to fade Svendsen against Michi , he has been pretty solid whole WC and thats his chance to get something .

 

[TheBrainiac]

Bergman 4 errors out of 5 shots , I love this .

 

[TheBrainiac]

Now Greis 4 errors , Biathlon is great !

 

[TheBrainiac]

21 February

Start time : 02:15 AM PST

World Championships 4x6km Relay - PyeongChang

Ukraine vs France

My pick is France to FINISH AHEAD

Odds : - 210

Where : pinnaclesports

5.25 units to win 2.5 units



21 February

Start time : 02:15 AM PST

World Championships 4x6km Relay - PyeongChang

Sweden vs Norway

My pick is Sweden to FINISH AHEAD

Odds : - 155

Where : pinnaclesports

3.87 units to win 2.5 units




21 February

Start time : 02:15 AM PST

World Championships 4x6km Relay - PyeongChang

Sweden vs Ukraine

My pick is Sweden to FINISH AHEAD

Odds : 1.50

Where : betandwin

4 units to win 2 units



21 February

Start time : 02:15 AM PST

World Championships 4x6km Relay - PyeongChang

Norway vs China

My pick is Norway to FINISH AHEAD

Odds : 1.55

Where : unibet & betandwin

5 units to win 2.75 units

 

[chriscol]

i go with

france over ukraine @ 1.45

Germany to win @ 1.44

 

[TheBrainiac]

Thx Rogstad , you c*** s****er .

 

[chriscol]

did you follow the cross-country so far?
i have seen that the women persuit is starting this afternoon and wondering if you have any ideas as i am busy with capping bundesliga now..........BTW did you hear the Schaaf has suspended Pizzaro for today...it looks like Werder doesnt want to turn it around

 

[TheBrainiac]

Didn't watch cross-country in a while .

This is getting very tough to cap , people missing 4 shots out of 5 in biathlon like you are supposed to miss as many as you can .

Werder is total mess this season I dont even watch their matches anymore , only when betting against them .

 

[TheBrainiac]

This season : 84-53 + 27.07 units

All : 150-83 + 193.41 units


22 February

Start time : 00:00 AM PST

Biathlon - Women: World Championship 12km Mass Start PyeongChang

Anna Carin Olofsson vs Magdalena Neuner

My pick is Anna Carin Olofsson to FINISH AHEAD

Odds : 1.90

Where : expekt

4 units to win 3.6 units


This whole event is lottery but if nothing crazy happens here Neuner will again make over 6 errors while Olofsson has been solid this year . Today in the relay Neuner missed 7 times and had to run 2 penalty loops even with extra 3 shots every shooting to just 2 errors of Olofsson . Running time of Neuner was just 1 second faster ! I don't think Neuner can even make up 1 error on Olofsson who is running pretty fast and not much worse than Neuner so this would mean Neuner cant miss 1 more than Olofsson . Is it possible ? I say its very unlikely with Neuner having to shoot 10 times standing where she can easily miss around 6 times . I will take my chances with much more stable shooter and almost equal runner at this point .

 

[TheBrainiac]

22 February

Start time : 00:00 AM PST

Biathlon - Women: World Championship 12km Mass Start PyeongChang

Andrea Henkel vs Magdalena Neuner

My pick is Andrea Henkel to FINISH AHEAD

Odds : + 109 & - 110

Where : pinnaclesports

2.1 units to win 2.09 units



Again fading Neuner , just don't believe in her shooting today , she may run as fast as she can both Henkel and Olofsson aren't that much slower that she can really make up more than 1 error .

 

[TheBrainiac]

22 February

Start time : 00:00 AM PST

Biathlon - Women: World Championship 12km Mass Start PyeongChang

Darya Domracheva vs Magdalena Neuner

My pick is Darya Domracheva to FINISH AHEAD

Odds : + 100

Where : pinnaclesports

2.5 units to win 2.5 units


If Neuner will finish well today my day wont finish well...




22 February

Start time : 00:00 AM PST

Biathlon - Women: World Championship 12km Mass Start PyeongChang

Eva Tofalvi vs Michela Ponza

My pick is Michela Ponza to FINISH AHEAD

Odds : + 146

Where : pinnaclesports

2 units to win 2.92 units


Tofalvi had big trouble shooting yesterday and was very slow in the relay , Italy didnt start so Ponza should be fresher . Ponza is a very good shooter while Tofalvi only once in a while can shoot decent but not as good as Ponza . Tofalvi probably gonna be faster but I wouldnt be surprised if she was tired which might be the reason for bad performance yesterday . At those odds I think it might be worth a try , Ponza can finish with 0 to 2 errors .

 

[chriscol]

Ponza did not start?

 

[TheBrainiac]

She didn't start today .