Brainiac’s Winter Sports

TheBrainiac · Feb 15, 2009

This season : 70-38 + 45.15 units

All : 136-68 + 211.49 units

I didn't watch first two sprints so will have to go by stats here .

15 February

Start time : 12:00 AM PST

Biathlon - Women: World Championship 10km Pursuit PyeongChang

Michela Ponza vs Solveig Rogstad

My pick is Michela Ponza to finish ahead

Odds : 1.60

Where : expekt

3 units to win 1.8 units

Starting 15 seconds ahead , both had 1 error but looks like Ponza was clearly faster . Rogstad has been sick a lot this season and had to skip many races , Ponza top 10 shooter in the circuit I believe and those extra 15 seconds will help as well . Rogstad about same in running as Ponza but not always solid with shooting .

Going to check what pinnaclesports , betandwin and unibet have to offer , bb with more plays .

TheBrainiac · Feb 15, 2009

15 February

Start time : 12:00 AM PST

Biathlon - Women: World Championship 10km Pursuit PyeongChang

Natalia Levcenkova vs Marie Lauret Brunet

My pick is Natalia Levcenkova to finish ahead

Odds : - 170

Where : pinnaclesports

4.25 units to win 2.5 units

15 February

Start time : 12:00 AM PST

Biathlon - Women: World Championship 10km Pursuit PyeongChang

Andrea Henkel vs Anna Boulygina

My pick is Andrea Henkel to finish ahead

Odds : - 178

Where : pinnaclesports

4.45 units to win 2.5 units

TheBrainiac · Feb 15, 2009

chriscol said:
couple of leans, but not plays yet

Henkel over Jonson @2.02
same time, henkel one more error

Olofson over Berger@1.96
Olofson 20 sec ahead with one more error..also better record in persuits overall..dont understand the line

Mäkkarainer over Medvedseva @1.78
same time Mäkk one more error..she can make up at least 1 error again, solid persuit rec.

input welcome !!

Henkel over Helena really no opinion here , worth a shot but we know Helena can go 19 or even 20 shots if she is on .

Dont understand that Berger line either , Olofsson pretty good this year and almost always solid , as you already said she will start 20 second ahead means she might be able to afford 2 errors more and still finish ahead. Berger has that reputation being good in pursuit races so bookies give her a lot of respect here .

Kaisa over Pyleva looks good I believe , she should be faster in a longer distance race but russians seem to be on a mission to prove they can get good results without doping as well ( Zaitseva , Boulygina ) .

TheBrainiac · Feb 15, 2009

PARLAY

15 February

Start time : 12:00 AM PST

Biathlon - Women: World Championship 10km Pursuit PyeongChang

Martina Beck vs Magdalena Neuner

My pick is Magdalena Neuner to finish ahead

Odds : 1.35

+

Zina Kocher vs Kaisa Mäkäräinen

My pick is Kaisa Mäkäräinen to finish ahead

Odds : 1.40

Combined odds : 1.89

Where : unibet

4 units to win 3.56 units

chriscol · Feb 15, 2009

Henkel disqualified, will not start

TheBrainiac · Feb 15, 2009

Neuner can shove those bullets up her ass , last time betting on this idiot .

chriscol · Feb 15, 2009

##) that and Olofson s first shooting cost me..Mäkk and Wilhelm were ok...Beck amazing shooting, but still Neuner should have beaten her

TheBrainiac · Feb 15, 2009

Levcenkova only 1 error but fkn Brunet goes 20/20 ?! WTF
They should think twice next time they want to have a WC in a country without real snow .

chriscol · Feb 15, 2009

Mens race

i have

Os over Berger @2.01

23 sec back and one error less...but it s an fade of berger. i dont think he can shoot well in these conditions..he might make up 2 or 3 errors, but it should be still enough for Os

Greis over Os @1.91

Greis 29 sec back with one more error..running was about the same, but Os had big advantage to start late while Greis relatively early...i think Greis can make up one error and he should be the better shooter

Greis over Tschudov @ 2.22

Greis 22 sec back but had one more error. who is better in shooting will win. Greis is usually good in persuits and i dont trust Tschudov as much...as dog a great value on greis

Sikora over Fourcade @1.95

Sikora 36 sec back, had 2 more errors...in addition he started very early yesterday (bip 26) which was a big disadvantage, while fourcade had best conditions in the end. Even with Fourcade always being able to shoot well Sikora can make up at least 3 errors..should be very possible

i ll not be around for race, so best of luck to all

TheBrainiac · Feb 15, 2009

15 February

Start time : 02:15 AM PST

World Championship 12,5km Pursuit PyeongChang

Michal Slesingr vs Björn Ferry

My pick is Björn Ferry to finish ahead

Odds : 1.50

Where : sportingbet

3 units to win 1.5 units

15 February

Start time : 02:15 AM PST

World Championship 12,5km Pursuit PyeongChang

Michal Slesingr vs Daniel Mesoch

My pick is Daniel Mesoch to finish ahead

Odds : - 194

Where : pinnaclesports

4.85 units to win 2.5 units

Meso tits

ch only 10 seconds ahead but also had 1 error more , he was 30 seconds faster in running . If am not wrong Slesingr will lose A LOT of time today on 12.5 km course , this guy slows down after 2 km already . This is a big fade of Slesingr as he is just too slow , Meso tits

ch should be able to make up 2 errors on him if not 3 , hopefully Slesingr misses some .

15 February

Start time : 02:15 AM PST

World Championship 12,5km Pursuit PyeongChang

Will Tomasz Sikora (POL) finish in TOP 10 ?

My pick is YES , TOP 10

Odds : 1.60

Where : betandwin

3 units to win 1.8 units

Will start as # 16 but almost every guy from 9-15 should never be there and I doubt many of them will keep their solid placement from sprint in pursuit today .

15 February

Start time : 02:15 AM PST

World Championship 12,5km Pursuit PyeongChang

Will Alexander Os (NOR) finish in TOP 5 ?

My pick is NO , NOT TOP 5

Odds : 1.65

Where : betandwin

3 units to win 1.95 units

I see Os having a not so good day with shooting , many solid guys behind him who will shoot better .

15 February

Start time : 02:15 AM PST

World Championship 12,5km Pursuit PyeongChang

Aleksander Os vs Michael Greis

My pick is Michael Greis to finish ahead

Odds : - 135

Where : pinnaclesports

3.37 units to win 2.5 units

Weather isn't good today and a guy like OS can easily miss 2 or more at some point , I count on Greis to have a solid performance today .

Cobalt · Feb 15, 2009

The Brainiac said:
They should think twice next time they want to have a WC in a country without real snow .

Ok, they cannot be blamed for the warm weather in the past week - that was just bad luck. But they can be blamed for giving a World Championship to a place with such a windsituation! Obviously that's nothing unusual for this region and if you want to have as similar conditions for all athletes as possible, you can't do a Championship at a shooting range like this if you KNOW that it is a common problem there!

Generally, watching that event has been very disappointing so far. Bad weather, bad tracks, wind lottery, doping scandal, handling of doping in russian team + by IBU in general, poor crowd of spectators in stadium, the official broadcast (directing, cut and camera are partly awful) - not to speak about the problems with electronic time measurement in the sprint races or the poor reporters of german television... It's understandable that the IBU wants to assign the big events not only to the "usual suspects" in Europe, but if you compare this with some of the World Championships in the past ten years at Oberhof, Hochfilzen, Antholz, Oslo, etc there is a huge difference to be seen! Sheesh, this should be the season highlight and there are only couple of hundred people on the standings! It looks like an continental IBU Cup instead of the topmeeting of the world elite!

TheBrainiac · Feb 15, 2009

Real lottery here , guess I gotta wait for relay . Another brutal day for me .

SonnyCrockett · Feb 15, 2009

Hi guys!

How it's going?

Passed today's race... wounds are still fresh.... lost around 2k€ on that last persuit race few weeks back... I hope for better luck soon

bol!

chriscol · Feb 15, 2009

Cobalt said:
Ok, they cannot be blamed for the warm weather in the past week - that was just bad luck. But they can be blamed for giving a World Championship to a place with such a windsituation! Obviously that's nothing unusual for this region and if you want to have as similar conditions for all athletes as possible, you can't do a Championship at a shooting range like this if you KNOW that it is a common problem there!

Generally, watching that event has been very disappointing so far. Bad weather, bad tracks, wind lottery, doping scandal, handling of doping in russian team + by IBU in general, poor crowd of spectators in stadium, the official broadcast (directing, cut and camera are partly awful) - not to speak about the problems with electronic time measurement in the sprint races or the poor reporters of german television... It's understandable that the IBU wants to assign the big events not only to the "usual suspects" in Europe, but if you compare this with some of the World Championships in the past ten years at Oberhof, Hochfilzen, Antholz, Oslo, etc there is a huge difference to be seen! Sheesh, this should be the season highlight and there are only couple of hundred people on the standings! It looks like an continental IBU Cup instead of the topmeeting of the world elite!

i agree completely...how can you give an event like this anyway to a country which has not even an athlete in that sport....ofcause there is nobody in the stands...what a surprise:think2:

and now this decision on the men s race...if these guys making a mistake, they have to be disqualified...german girl was shooting with live munition during practice...ofcause it s not allowed and dangerous and she was disqualified with right, but did she gain an advantage over the others by doing it??? and because it s Bjorndalen everthing is allowed??? that s almost a joke like in Formula 1 races....
can you imagine Tiger woods signing a wrong score in a major where he is winning: he would be diqualified, no matter what. it s the rules!! but here they are saying they had no advantage

:nono5:

TheBrainiac · Feb 15, 2009

This whole WC is total shit , btw whats the difference with Ole breaking the rules and not being DQed but Henkel didn't really gain any advantage in the race by what she did and she wasn't allowed to start today ...
Anyway I probably will just load up on men Norway team to win the relay and Germany to win women relay , seems very obvious to me . Every other race probably gonna be even worse , especially individual where someone might miss 3 times out of 5 shots in one shooting due to wind and get 3 exta mins bumped to their time .

Cobalt · Feb 15, 2009

Yeah. Betting the single races at Tue+Wed would be like shots in the dark. No way I spend a single penny on that! The three relays and the mass starts will probably bring up some opportunities, but I guess that norwegian men and german ladies will be skyhigh favs and given all those problems of the past coupla days I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them shit the bed at ridiculously lousy odds....

One more word about the organization: I feel a bit sorry for South Korea as there are several aspects for which they cannot be blamed (esp the weather-related issues), but there was a ("test"-)World Cup at Pyeongchang last season for a reason! From what I remember there have been some problems last year too but now it's even worse than that! btw: South Korea got athletes, some of them are part of World Cup for a lot longer time than the Chinese - but they just don't have anyone who can finish a race in top30! As Chris already said: how the heck do you want to attract people to get in the stadium when there are no local heroes to cheer for?

And the decision in today's men pursuit is really a big joke! It's not like they weren't told before or track was marked incorrectly! The guys who went the wrong way just messed it up and there are rules for that. Those rules are clear - Period! Not that I want Tchoudov to win (far from it), but imagine what's gonna happen next time anyone gets off the regular track?? ...well, if the Championships continue the way they started this weekend, I'm curious what kind of desasters will be shown to us next week! Cheers.

chriscol · Feb 16, 2009

single men:

i will tread very careful, szill i looked at the lines , mainly looking for shooting form. in these condiotion everything can happen and with the extra minute for each error it s mostly a matter of shooting result. even in the strange wind conditions you find guys who still cope with it better than others and it s as usual...they who like the shooting will find also a way in difficult conditions..they that dont like it loose patience and go all over the place.

Os over Berger @ 1.55 big

Berger might make up 1 or 2 errors, but he is known as a bad shooter. here he went 2 + 8 , while Os 1+3

M Fourcade over Stephan @ 1.80
running about the same. Fourcade here so far with 2+4 while STephan 3+8. In two singles this season stephan finished 74th and 93th just showing that he doesnt like the format

Suman over SIkora @ 2.23

i like Sikora, but i was looking of a matchup to go with Suman. He got disqualified in sprint for running the wrong way (what a joke considering what happend in last race), so he is rested and he is known as a good shooter. Pinny only offers him vs. Sikora and Wolf, but against wolf he is at 1.52 which i dont want to lay. in this matchup as a dog he presents nice value as he is always able to shoot same as sikora.

Wolf over Maksimov @1.91

Wolf was very slow, but finished with 2+2 which is one of the best shootings overall. Maksimov didnt start, but he is not to reliable as a shooter. Good bet on Wolf'S shooting

De Lorenzi over DeFrasne @1.91

De Lorenzi is faster and can gain at least one minute. shooting is also more solid going 2+3 and having already success this year in single, while DeFrasne with 2+6 and 35th ,52nd in singles looked shaky

my special russia bet

Tschudov over Bjorndalen @ 2.88

Tschudov shot 0+3, while Bjornd 2+4. Bjorndalen will not make up more than 1 error..Tschudov looks very motivated any way here not to mentioned the strange decision from sunday. he is very capabale of have same shooting as Bjorndalen

it will be early here in germany 6 am..better for US guys to follow, so i ll go to sleep now.

chriscol · Feb 16, 2009

chriscol said:
single men:

De Lorenzi over DeFrasne @1.91

De Lorenzi is faster and can gain at least one minute. shooting is also more solid going 2+3 and having already success this year in single, while DeFrasne with 2+6 and 35th ,52nd in singles looked shaky

.

taking this one back and covering it with a deFrasne bet .. Di Lorenzi is actually a much worse shooter than DeFrasne this year going back into the overall shooting stats, so its a no play for me.

adding

Slesinger over Landertinger @1.80

Much , much better shooter here overall during whole season. so far here Slesinger 2+5, while Landertinger 3+10

TheBrainiac · Feb 16, 2009

Aight man , I will add my bets bit later , will have to stay up today . Like Os over Berger a lot , just took it . Berger shoots very bad , I wouldnt be surprised if he missed over 5 out of 10 shots in standing position , prone isnt all that great either .

Frankinho · Feb 16, 2009

I also have placed a few bets on these:

Hallenbarter over Maric @ 1.70
Landertinger over Stephan @ 1.70
Wolf over Tcherezov @ 2.00
Os over Hanevold @ 2.00

Two parlays:
Os over Roesch / Hallenbarter over Maric /
S over M Fourcade / Landertinger over Stephan @ 7.03

Deryzemlya over Roesch / Windisch over Leguellec /
S. Fourcade over Defrasne / Sikora over Greis @ 7.36