Brainiac’s Winter Sports

[TheBrainiac]

Now thats way better than the day yesterday , good start with 2 : 0 .
Ponza had 4 errors today and was 14 seconds behind Rogstad after the last shooting and still finished 2 seconds ahead of her

Ioureva never in danger with 2 minutes in front of Sleptsova .


Biathlon - Men: World Championships 12,5km Pursuit


Bjoern Ferry vs Tomasz Sikora

My pick is Bjoern Ferry to finish ahead of Tomasz Sikora

10 units to win 7 units at gamebookers


Ferry starting 8 seconds behind but he lost a lot of time yesterday because of the crash . Ferry should be angry today and will post a good result . Very strong results in races before this one , Sikora rarely even started in pursuit this season .


Dont like match ups gamebookers and pinnaclesports offer . Almost anything is way too close to call . Will watch today and have solid information for mass start .

 

[TheBrainiac]

Hmmmmmm Burke -116 now and Hallenbarter +100 WOW

 

[Cobalt]

Yeah, very suspect. On the other hand I could imagine that not so much money is needed for line movement in this sports...

 

[TheBrainiac]

Yep , you are right , nothing suspect with so little money involded LOL

 

[TheBrainiac]

Ferry really fkn sux , this one is lost , whatever

 

[Cobalt]

Info rules! tv reporter said that Wolf had a crash too yesterday - I didn't know that, so his sprint result was not so bad after all and he did show it today - congrats to bronze!

Men Pursuit +3,2u
Burke! Gotta admit he shows a nice performance so far here, Hallenbarter too many errors!
Both dogs cashed; Kruglov really sucks big time, I wonder what's wrong with him....

Gonna write down my impressions later.

 

[TheBrainiac]

Ferry doping or how was he so good just few weeks ago ? He was slower in running than Sikora , GO HOME FERRY , never mind hes at home in Sweden !

Burned almost all my winnings from the women race on this punk , wish I just took Ole to win it all , SIGH !

 

[chriscol]

nice comeback by Wolf...shitty Hanevold gave it away vs. Tscherezov on finish line
Ferry will remain a nice fade

 

[Cobalt]

Review Pursuits
- esp paying attention to the running time of the last laps because I think that we can see the physical form/fitness there quite well and with 6 events in 9 days (ok, not a lot of the athletes will participate in all of those, if any), sooner or later exhaustion will settle in ....

Women - Pursuit
Who confirmed the form: Henkel, Iourieva, Akhatova, Berger, Bailly, Glagow, Sleptsova, Hitzer, Khvostenko, Domracheva
Who disappointed: Wilhelm, swedish team, Ponza, Guseva, Flatland
Who surprised: Neuner, Grudicek, Gwizdon, Liduma
- Henkel: perfect, simple as that; in this form she's one of the topfavs for individual as well.
- Iourieva: hard to critizise a silver medal winner, but like in sprint she had declining lap times again...ah, who cares when she gets on podium
- Akhatova: completely confirmed her sprint result and with that shooting she is a force to reckon with in the other races, too;
- Berger: once again rocksolid - only the perfect shooting of the first three prevented a medal;
- Bailly: same as Berger as far as the medals are concerned, but faster on the track (while one error more);
- Neuner: that good standing shooting should give her a lot of confidence and shows that she's mentally intact;
- Glagow: she's doing all she can, but it remains very obvious that she has not recovered her physical strength, losing time every lap and esp on the last (lost 30 sec on Neuner there who didn't go full force)!
- Sleptsova: I read that she was ill right before the Championships, but nonetheless she showed a good last leg in pursuit (better than in sprint);
- Hitzer: no good start with 2 errors right at the 1st shooting, but she came back and even managed to run the fastest last leg!
- Khvostenko: as predicted - decent race, but not the power to cope with the best, esp in the last two legs (2 errors last shooting and losing about 20 sec on last round);
- Grudicek: showing up like in sprint (Gwizdon as well); very decent results for her;
- Wilhelm: running ok, too many errors in shooting (2 in last shooting, unusual); she can't be satisfied w such ranks, and pressure will rise now as possibilities to achieve a medal are getting fewer (in contrast to Henkel who will have no pressure at all from now on!);
- Wang: best of the Chinese, but still losing a minute on the track (Liu 1:40, Kong 2:20!)
- Jonsson: best of the Swedes, but still losing >a minute on the track (like Olofsson, Nilsson, Domej too); too much home pressure?
- BonnevieS: too many errors of the young Norwegian and weaker last lap;
- Ponza: shooting 4 errors and losing about 20 sec per round - a weak performance;
- Domracheva: from 46th to 25th despite 3 errors; excellent running - nice bounce back!
- Flatland: very bad... again....
- Mäkäräinen: did not start - ill??

 

[Cobalt]

Men Pursuit
Who confirmed the form? Bjoerndalen, Tchoudov, Iarochenko, Roesch, Tscherezov, Hanevold, Sikora, Svendsen, Ferry, Graf, Birnbacher
Who disappointed? Kruglov, Bergman
Who surprised? Wolf, Slesingr, Fourcade, Burke, Bricis, DeLorenzi, Vitek, Defrasne
- Bjoerndalen: The Empire Strikes Back! But he def needed a better shooting than Tchoudov, who was 18 sec (!) faster on the track.
- Tchoudov: Wow! When he made those two errors at 1st shooting after pushing massively on the first round, I thought that he will shit the bed - incredible how he caught up again and unbelievable that he was able to leave the range after 4th shooting with 0 errors! We'll see if he will have to pay for that effort, but I guess with a day rest (or two if he doesn't run the mixed) he will have enough time to recover.
- Wolf: proved me wrong here; maybe some kind of breakthru for him finally!?
- Iarochenko: read that he was involved in Wolf's crash in sprint as well; lost vs the German on the last round because Wolf was tactically more clever;
- Slesingr: by now we can state that he managed to achieve his season peak right in time! Will look out for his matchups...
- Fourcade: from rank 20 to 6th - nice! Looks like he is the head of the french men team here, although: Defrasne improved, too;
- Roesch: continues to shine here; bronze was possible till last shooting; excellent last lap, almost as fast as Tchoudov!
- Tscherezov: very good race, quite fast; don't know what happened at the first shooting: no error, but he lost a lot of time there..?
- Hanevold: 2 errors one too much for the old man to attack the podium once again; but he's def in a superb form;
- Burke: shows that the sprint result was no "accident"; like Slesingr he is obviously able to produce his best form right on time;
- Sikora: nothing new - said enough about him already
- Svendsen: nothing new as well: errors prevent him to benefit from his great running ability;
- Bricis, DeLorenzi: see ->Sikora, Burke, Slesingr
- Ferry: 3 errors too much to gain ranks here; running pretty good, though;
- Graf: after 3 errors in the first two shootings, he slowed down and brought the race home in a controlled fashion I guess;
- Birnbacher: better running this time, but 5 errors instead.....
- Defrasne: solid race of the Frenchman - from 54th to 22th; much better than in sprint;
- Kruglov: only 2 errors and not able to improve from his sprint ranking? sth is wrong w him.
- Austrian team: clear uptrend! perhaps ski material was no good for sprint? Even Sumann's lap times ok, so maybe illness not such a big factor.

 

[Cobalt]

Tomorrow mixed relay and we'll have to wait who will be in the "lineups".
(Germany will start with Neuner, Buchholz, Greis and Birnbacher.)

Note that women individual race will take place only one day after the mixed relay - this should give a small advantage to those that do not participate in the relay. Btw: the individual races tend to produce upsets because of the 1 min penalty that is added to the running time for each error. Hence strong shooters are favoured at these particular events. So, look out for starters in the women's individual on Wednesday who didn't perform in the mixed relay and are known for solid shooting!
Weather: seems that weather will get worse in the next days (more wind?); heard that on eurosport; if that is true, good shooting will be even more essential;

 

[chriscol]

i have no experience with these mixed races, but from top of my head, who else can win besides Germany or russia.Germany has a very motivated Greis in the first race and Neuner improving...the other two are ok.Russia will also probably rest some of the top guns (i think then the german team is deeper, but we will see who is on the teams)Besides that i can only think of Norway...they are maybe able to put 2 men in who can go with the others, but 2 girls i doubt.

 

[TheBrainiac]

Berger , Flatland or Rogstad + Hanevold and Svendsen or maybe even Ole Einar would be very strong too

Russia could get the strongest team together if they wanted to with Ioureva , Sleptsova + Tchoudov , Iarochenko but I doubt they will do it .

 

[chriscol]

Germany: Bucholz, Neuner, Greis, Birnbacher
Russia: Sleptsova, Iourieva, Kruglov,Yaroshenko
Norway: Bonnevie Svendsen, Ingstadbjorg, Os,Bratsveen
Sweden: Jonsson, Olofsson,Ferry Bergman

No odds so far, but i guess Russia will be fav over Germany
Sweden puts their best team out there (i cannot understand they put Oloffson out again, but then it might be sweden s best chance to make a medal)
Norway: that s not even a B-Team

 

[TheBrainiac]

If Russia put Tcherezov instead of Kruglov I sure would bet on them but Kruglov sucked so far

 

[Cobalt]

bet365 got 2 matchups now:
Russia - Germany 1,66 - 2,10 (lol, dropped to 1,52 - 2,40 already)
Sweden - Norway 1,45 - 2,60
-and outright + leader after 1st leg;
(Women individual odds out,too)

btw: I noticed that I used the word "leg" in a wrong sense in all my writing above. Realized that it's supposed to identify the runners of the relays only and not a "round" or "lap" (at least I hope that I got it right now....).

Nothing jumps out to me for mixed so far. C ya tomorrow!

 

[TheBrainiac]

I might take Russia to win it all , I read that Russia really want that gold . Only Germany can stop them in my opinion , Sweden is way too slow and doesnt even have better shooting than Russia so I dont know how they are supposed to finish ahead of them .

 

[chriscol]

i just made fun out of it trying to cap the crap-matchups: always remember we are analysing something like 3rd division football here:i dont have many matchups available, but maybe you can use the info:

 

[chriscol]

Italy

Ponza: 13th overall WC, sprint 13 (1 error), persuit 22nd (bad performance)Fiandino: 62th overall WC, sprint 43 (1 error,very slow), persuit 36th (2 errors, was OK)Vaillermoz: no WC-points, sprint 40 (3 errors), persuit 38 (4 errors cant shoot decent runner), De Lorenzi 39 WC, sprint 21 (2), persuit 14 (2 errors great race)

 

[chriscol]

France

Brunet: 53 th WC, sprimt 30 (1), persuit 26th (2, was OK), Perotto 30th WC, sprint 45 (2, very slow), persuit 27 (0 good shooting, slow again), Jay 73th WC, no show in sprint and persuit, Habert 44th WC, Sprint 27th (1), persuit 45th (6, terrible shooting)