1* Western Michigan Broncos +8 -110
Another play here with a big public favorite laying 2 scores on the road vs. a very motivated home team. My line here is Broncos -2.5.
Illini with a emotional last second FG against Iowa, now travel on the road to a very motivated Broncos team who always gets up for games vs. the Big Ten. Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big Ten. They are not intimidated and they can hang with Big Ten opponents, more than the betting lines give them credit for.
The way you can soften up a defense is to pass the ball and after seeing what teams have been able to do to this Zooker defense through the air, only makes me think the Broncs will have good success in this game passing.
Zook's teams always play down to the level of competition, and I have a feeling the Illini will see Western Michigan....western who? and play down to the level. Broncos are actually a solid football team though, and with a tremendous amount of motivation for them in what should be their game of the year, expect an intense Broncos team on Saturday looking to pull the upset. Broncos are 4-0 at home straight up, and the Illini are just 1-3 on the road.
This is the #6 passing offense in the country. Unlike QB Tim Hiller's Illini counterpart Juice Williams, Hiller is the mistake-free Qb qith a 28/5 TD to INT ratio. Williams by contrast has the 19 to 12 ratio. Hiller is completing almost 70% of his passes. This Broncos team will spread out the field and dink and dunk and take their occasional shot deep and they should have some success moving the ball vs. a soft Illini defense.
Illini have lost outright to any team with a top 50 passing offense.
This Broncos attack is #9, but probably top 30 in any other conference.
Every decent offense the Illini have faced this year has scored 24+. And with a motivated defense, hostile envrionment and a mistake-prone Juice, I dont expect the Illini to cover the 8 points here.
Take the motivated home team in their game of the year with a high octane offense vs. a disinterested road team that plays down to the level of competition with a mistake prone QB and defense that gives up chunks of yardage.
Illinois 31
Western Michigan 27
Another play here with a big public favorite laying 2 scores on the road vs. a very motivated home team. My line here is Broncos -2.5.
Illini with a emotional last second FG against Iowa, now travel on the road to a very motivated Broncos team who always gets up for games vs. the Big Ten. Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big Ten. They are not intimidated and they can hang with Big Ten opponents, more than the betting lines give them credit for.
The way you can soften up a defense is to pass the ball and after seeing what teams have been able to do to this Zooker defense through the air, only makes me think the Broncs will have good success in this game passing.
Zook's teams always play down to the level of competition, and I have a feeling the Illini will see Western Michigan....western who? and play down to the level. Broncos are actually a solid football team though, and with a tremendous amount of motivation for them in what should be their game of the year, expect an intense Broncos team on Saturday looking to pull the upset. Broncos are 4-0 at home straight up, and the Illini are just 1-3 on the road.
This is the #6 passing offense in the country. Unlike QB Tim Hiller's Illini counterpart Juice Williams, Hiller is the mistake-free Qb qith a 28/5 TD to INT ratio. Williams by contrast has the 19 to 12 ratio. Hiller is completing almost 70% of his passes. This Broncos team will spread out the field and dink and dunk and take their occasional shot deep and they should have some success moving the ball vs. a soft Illini defense.
Illini have lost outright to any team with a top 50 passing offense.
This Broncos attack is #9, but probably top 30 in any other conference.
Every decent offense the Illini have faced this year has scored 24+. And with a motivated defense, hostile envrionment and a mistake-prone Juice, I dont expect the Illini to cover the 8 points here.
Take the motivated home team in their game of the year with a high octane offense vs. a disinterested road team that plays down to the level of competition with a mistake prone QB and defense that gives up chunks of yardage.
Illinois 31
Western Michigan 27
2.5* Duke Blue Devils -3 -120
Bought the 1/2 point here down to 3.
However, if you dont believe in that sort of thing, I would play this at 3.5 and 4 at 1.5 units.
On to the game:
My line is Duke -26 for a huge value on the line. Keep the play at standard siuze of 2 units because it is Duke afterall, I have them as a negative team (-3.54) in my power ratings, which tells me they are capable of giving this game away. I also don't like being on the public side here and I havent been thrilled with the line movement. Otherwise, this was a 4* play candidate.
Both teams have played quality schedules, they play in the same conference, neither team is a fraud - in fact I have Duke playing the #19 schedule and NC State #21. These teams are what they are, don't overthink this one. Duke is an average team, NC State is a bad team.
I think a lot of people deep down though still think the Wolfpack are the average team and Duke is the bad team. Remember, lines are not made to reflect true favorites and value, but public perception is also factored into the line. How the teams are viewed by the public, etc.
Wolfpack only have 2 wins, no shot at bowl eligibility and it's not like this is their game of the year to get up one time and play Duke to ease the pain of their season. Duke hasnt beaten NC State since the 1980s at least. So some kind of deep down major revenge on the line for Duke.
Meanwhile, Duke is 4-4, two wins away from bowl eligiblity. That would be a nice accomplishment for this team. So NC State has packed their season in, and they are on the road. Duke is fighting for a bowl and they are at home - motivation to Duke here.
Very reasonable spread at -3/-4. Not laying a huge number. Duke is the better team. My line is Duke -15.5 on a neutral field all thins equal.
NC State is in a complete tailspin. Lost 4 straight, 5 of their past 6, and 8 of their last 10. They have no idea what's going on. They lost at home, they lost on the road, they lost in a dumpster, they lost everywhere. If there is a game going on NC State is going to lose it.
Duke's lost 3 of 4, so that helped create some line value here as well. 2 of those 3 losses were on the road, and they lost to Wake, Miami and Ga Tech, three of the stronger ACC teams. The Miami loss was a home loss, and they lead the majority of that game and ended up losing by 2.
So Duke plays well at home.
A little more evidence of that is Duke averages 31 PPG at home, up 7 points from their regaulr offensive output. That is VERY good. NC State meanwhile, can't score points on the road. It is really bad. They average 19 PPG normally, but on the road they onl score 11. That is a huge difference.
So Duke is better than NC State normally. But at home Duke scores an extra TD, and NC State gives away an extra TD, a 14 point swing just because this game is at Duke.
Couple trends to top this off:
Duke is very good against bad teams. They dont play down to the level of competition and they dont take anyone for granted. Blue Devils are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Duke has been undervalued all year and they continue to cover. Blue Devils are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Take the motivated home team fighting for bowl eligiblity who is the better team and plays even better at home, vs. a bad road team with no motivation.
Duke 31
NC State 16
Bought the 1/2 point here down to 3.
However, if you dont believe in that sort of thing, I would play this at 3.5 and 4 at 1.5 units.
On to the game:
My line is Duke -26 for a huge value on the line. Keep the play at standard siuze of 2 units because it is Duke afterall, I have them as a negative team (-3.54) in my power ratings, which tells me they are capable of giving this game away. I also don't like being on the public side here and I havent been thrilled with the line movement. Otherwise, this was a 4* play candidate.
Both teams have played quality schedules, they play in the same conference, neither team is a fraud - in fact I have Duke playing the #19 schedule and NC State #21. These teams are what they are, don't overthink this one. Duke is an average team, NC State is a bad team.
I think a lot of people deep down though still think the Wolfpack are the average team and Duke is the bad team. Remember, lines are not made to reflect true favorites and value, but public perception is also factored into the line. How the teams are viewed by the public, etc.
Wolfpack only have 2 wins, no shot at bowl eligibility and it's not like this is their game of the year to get up one time and play Duke to ease the pain of their season. Duke hasnt beaten NC State since the 1980s at least. So some kind of deep down major revenge on the line for Duke.
Meanwhile, Duke is 4-4, two wins away from bowl eligiblity. That would be a nice accomplishment for this team. So NC State has packed their season in, and they are on the road. Duke is fighting for a bowl and they are at home - motivation to Duke here.
Very reasonable spread at -3/-4. Not laying a huge number. Duke is the better team. My line is Duke -15.5 on a neutral field all thins equal.
NC State is in a complete tailspin. Lost 4 straight, 5 of their past 6, and 8 of their last 10. They have no idea what's going on. They lost at home, they lost on the road, they lost in a dumpster, they lost everywhere. If there is a game going on NC State is going to lose it.
Duke's lost 3 of 4, so that helped create some line value here as well. 2 of those 3 losses were on the road, and they lost to Wake, Miami and Ga Tech, three of the stronger ACC teams. The Miami loss was a home loss, and they lead the majority of that game and ended up losing by 2.
So Duke plays well at home.
A little more evidence of that is Duke averages 31 PPG at home, up 7 points from their regaulr offensive output. That is VERY good. NC State meanwhile, can't score points on the road. It is really bad. They average 19 PPG normally, but on the road they onl score 11. That is a huge difference.
So Duke is better than NC State normally. But at home Duke scores an extra TD, and NC State gives away an extra TD, a 14 point swing just because this game is at Duke.
Couple trends to top this off:
Duke is very good against bad teams. They dont play down to the level of competition and they dont take anyone for granted. Blue Devils are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Duke has been undervalued all year and they continue to cover. Blue Devils are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Take the motivated home team fighting for bowl eligiblity who is the better team and plays even better at home, vs. a bad road team with no motivation.
Duke 31
NC State 16
Boxslayer....Thanks for all the hard work you do on here, as you do an outstanding job with great write ups that provide winners many more times than not...
Someone on here the other day, and it might have been Illini said that the WMU/Illini game was supposed to have like 15-20,000 people and the players and fans would basically be able to hear each other....While I think WMU will get points...and even a decent amount of them, this is going to be a very awkward game I think..
Best of luck and keep up the great work
Someone on here the other day, and it might have been Illini said that the WMU/Illini game was supposed to have like 15-20,000 people and the players and fans would basically be able to hear each other....While I think WMU will get points...and even a decent amount of them, this is going to be a very awkward game I think..
Best of luck and keep up the great work
0.5* Nevada Wolfpack -2.5 -110
My math models have Fresno as a 10 point favorite. But that is with Ryan Mathews being healthy. Mathews is out for this game, and he is the centerpiece to the Bulldog offense and one of the most explosive backs in college football.
However, his absence as well as the potential absence of his change of pace back Lonyae Miller, means the dynamics that make this offense so successful will have to change.
Nevada has a tremendous run defense, and the Bulldogs arent going to win by trying to pound it between the tackles unless they have a guy back there that can take it to the house, and by losing Mathews they lose that element to their offense.
Nevada, meanwhile, has played a slightly tougher schedule, has beaten better teams, and is firing on all cylinders right now averaging 40 PPG over their last 3 games. This is a must-win for Nevada, IMO, as their 4-4 record is 2 wins shy of bowl eligibility and this would be a huge win for them.
Fresno's homefield advantage is non-existent and has been for a long time. Bulldogs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games. They also havent done well in these Friday night games. Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. Fresno is actually 1-2 at home straight up, while Nevada is 2-2 on the road.
Fresno also has a very hard time bouncing back after losses. Bulldogs are 4-25-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a S.U. loss.
Meanwhile, Nevada is very good after losing and with the injuries to the Fresno offense, they are in a good position to do it yet again. Wolf Pack are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS loss. Wolf Pack are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. loss.
Take the explosive road team, laying a very small number, firing on all cylinders in a must-win scenario, vs. the wounded home team that needs to make major changes to their offense and has no real major homefield advantage.
Nevada 38
Fresno State 31
My math models have Fresno as a 10 point favorite. But that is with Ryan Mathews being healthy. Mathews is out for this game, and he is the centerpiece to the Bulldog offense and one of the most explosive backs in college football.
However, his absence as well as the potential absence of his change of pace back Lonyae Miller, means the dynamics that make this offense so successful will have to change.
Nevada has a tremendous run defense, and the Bulldogs arent going to win by trying to pound it between the tackles unless they have a guy back there that can take it to the house, and by losing Mathews they lose that element to their offense.
Nevada, meanwhile, has played a slightly tougher schedule, has beaten better teams, and is firing on all cylinders right now averaging 40 PPG over their last 3 games. This is a must-win for Nevada, IMO, as their 4-4 record is 2 wins shy of bowl eligibility and this would be a huge win for them.
Fresno's homefield advantage is non-existent and has been for a long time. Bulldogs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games. They also havent done well in these Friday night games. Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. Fresno is actually 1-2 at home straight up, while Nevada is 2-2 on the road.
Fresno also has a very hard time bouncing back after losses. Bulldogs are 4-25-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a S.U. loss.
Meanwhile, Nevada is very good after losing and with the injuries to the Fresno offense, they are in a good position to do it yet again. Wolf Pack are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS loss. Wolf Pack are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. loss.
Take the explosive road team, laying a very small number, firing on all cylinders in a must-win scenario, vs. the wounded home team that needs to make major changes to their offense and has no real major homefield advantage.
Nevada 38
Fresno State 31
