This is a real tough game because I think TCU is the better team, they have line value, but they are on the road and I am not sure how this will effect the game.
I really like Brian Johnson at QB for Utah, and I don't think TCU has seen a QB that can get the ball down field the way he can and have the ability to scramble. He is the X Factor in this game. Utah also runs a wide open offense, they arent scared to take chances and run trick plays. They are very imaginitvie on offense and I think that will keep TCU honest defensively.
That being said, I don't think Utah has seen some of the blitz packages TCU will throw at them and I think Utah makes too many stupid mistakes for my taste while TCU has the #1 sacking team and top 5 turnover margin in the country.
I will probably play a 2nd half play fi something jumps out because I have a good read on both teams, just not sure how they will clash tonight and I will use the first half as indication.
3-1, +2.80 units so far this week.
2.5* Louisville Cardinals +6 -110
Love being opposite the public in this particular game, and even better love being opposite of Dave Wannstedt. This guy has no idea that point spreads even exist. He has made it well known that he wants to win with a running game and defense. Both don't match up well vs. the Cardinals.
Louisville QB Hunter Cantwell can play, and their 9th ranked rush D can stop McCoy.
My line Louisville -1.
Love that Pitt went to quadruple overtime in a very high profile game vs. Notre Dame, proceeded to use every ounce of energy they had, while Louisville was in sandwich game look ahead mode last week dropping a game to Syracuse. I like Louisville to be fired up for this one.
Dont sweat Louisville's loss to Syracuse, it shows nothing but the fact that they were looking ahead. Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Cardinals are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. loss. This team knows how to bounceback.
Dont sweat Pitt's homefield. Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. And after their big high profile celebration over Notre Dame, I can't see them having anywhere near the same intensity for this one. It wouldnt be a first for them either. Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Wannstedt has one of the few teams in America that have worse stats at home. i.e. Panthers usually average 30PPG, but at home, just 25PPG. Defense gives up 27 Per game. At home 29. This shows Wannstedt sits on the ball, sits on leads, and will allow teams to backdoor him like Taylor Rain.
Louisville plays well on the road and they have been very hot offensively the last few games.
Finally, Pitt QB Bill Stull is recovering from a concussion.
Take the motivated road team with a high octane offense, vs. a beat up emotionally spent home team in let down mode, with a banged up QB and a conservative coach that will sit on a lead if he gets one.
Louisville 28
Pittsburgh 24
2.5* Louisville Cardinals +6 -110
Love being opposite the public in this particular game, and even better love being opposite of Dave Wannstedt. This guy has no idea that point spreads even exist. He has made it well known that he wants to win with a running game and defense. Both don't match up well vs. the Cardinals.
Louisville QB Hunter Cantwell can play, and their 9th ranked rush D can stop McCoy.
My line Louisville -1.
Love that Pitt went to quadruple overtime in a very high profile game vs. Notre Dame, proceeded to use every ounce of energy they had, while Louisville was in sandwich game look ahead mode last week dropping a game to Syracuse. I like Louisville to be fired up for this one.
Dont sweat Louisville's loss to Syracuse, it shows nothing but the fact that they were looking ahead. Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Cardinals are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. loss. This team knows how to bounceback.
Dont sweat Pitt's homefield. Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. And after their big high profile celebration over Notre Dame, I can't see them having anywhere near the same intensity for this one. It wouldnt be a first for them either. Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Wannstedt has one of the few teams in America that have worse stats at home. i.e. Panthers usually average 30PPG, but at home, just 25PPG. Defense gives up 27 Per game. At home 29. This shows Wannstedt sits on the ball, sits on leads, and will allow teams to backdoor him like Taylor Rain.
Louisville plays well on the road and they have been very hot offensively the last few games.
Finally, Pitt QB Bill Stull is recovering from a concussion.
Take the motivated road team with a high octane offense, vs. a beat up emotionally spent home team in let down mode, with a banged up QB and a conservative coach that will sit on a lead if he gets one.
Louisville 28
Pittsburgh 24
ope:
They were in full clock kill mode on their final 2 drives, just handing it off the whole time, you could see the knee coming. That's always part of the reason why I love betting Va Tech unders when I think they are going to win. I projected a Va Tech cover in my score prediction, I was actually 1 point off, and the game went as planned. Unders are never any fun and you always sweat unders out more than overs, and that's part of why the public loves betting overs - once the game goes over, the bet is done. But unders you have to sweat the whole game. Obviously rooting for ponts to score is a lot more fun than hoping for a boring defensive game - and that's the other reason why overs are always more popular.
I'll likely have a play on the Bama/LSU game as I love betting big games, especially in the SEC.
Even if you give LSU 12 points of motivation, my line is still Bama -6. So Bama definitely has the line value here. But that doesn't always warrant a play.
I don't think the line is fishy either. I think a lot of people don't think Bama is for real, and they love betting on LSU at Tiger Stadium, which I am sorry to say to a LSU fan has been one of the more overrated home field advantages when betting recently as LSU is 0-4 ATS last 4 games at home.
Stay tuned.
Gotcha, sounds like you like the Tide if anything, which I would have suspected given the massive disparity in your ratings.
It's true that LSU's homefield is almost always more than discounted in the spreads (an overcorrection from earlier in the decade perhaps), and the daytime atmosphere can almost be deflating to the team--day versus night there is truly a difference of day and night. The public side in this game does appear to be more Bama however, they were burned on the UGA game 2 weeks ago.
And actually, LSU is 0-5 ATS at home this year. Would have to look up last year, but it wasn't great ATS either (failed to cover against in close wins versus AU, UF, S. Carolina and loss to Arkansas at home).
It's true that LSU's homefield is almost always more than discounted in the spreads (an overcorrection from earlier in the decade perhaps), and the daytime atmosphere can almost be deflating to the team--day versus night there is truly a difference of day and night. The public side in this game does appear to be more Bama however, they were burned on the UGA game 2 weeks ago.
And actually, LSU is 0-5 ATS at home this year. Would have to look up last year, but it wasn't great ATS either (failed to cover against in close wins versus AU, UF, S. Carolina and loss to Arkansas at home).
Box,
Am I alone in feeling like this game will go under? I know the Alabama D hasn't played much in the way of great offenses (Georgia being the only one, maybe, and scoring over 30 on them), but still, daytime in Baton Rouge, I'm thinking this game will be close and possibly under 40. I just can't see either of these teams running all over the field on each other.
Am I alone in feeling like this game will go under? I know the Alabama D hasn't played much in the way of great offenses (Georgia being the only one, maybe, and scoring over 30 on them), but still, daytime in Baton Rouge, I'm thinking this game will be close and possibly under 40. I just can't see either of these teams running all over the field on each other.
