No play on OK State. If I had to bet...I have to Lean to OK State, but not strong enough to make it a play right now. I don't think this is where Tech goes down. I have a few more things to check on this game, and if I have a play on it, it will be Sat afternoon sometime before the game - if at all.
And for the record my line is Florida -9 over Vandy. But I am a Gator fan and will not be playing this.
I would put 1.5* on Vandy though.
And for the record my line is Florida -9 over Vandy. But I am a Gator fan and will not be playing this.
I would put 1.5* on Vandy though.
Boxslayer is playing
Box. I read your writeup and after seeing the SU and ATS numbers after a loss for each team and with Fresno's best back Out, this sounds more like a 2* play, not just a one half * play. Is there another reason it's such a small play or am I missing something. Regardless, good luck with all your plays. I'll be following you on some of them.
Box. I read your writeup and after seeing the SU and ATS numbers after a loss for each team and with Fresno's best back Out, this sounds more like a 2* play, not just a one half * play. Is there another reason it's such a small play or am I missing something. Regardless, good luck with all your plays. I'll be following you on some of them.
BC my numbers HEAVILY favored Fresno, but that was with Mathews in. With Mathews out, there really isnt any data. You have to figure one player can't make a 15 point difference in line value.
Fresno was also at home, arguably the better team, with some motivation, etc.
At the end of the day, I went with my handicapping, and ignored the numbers, homefield, etc and put a little something on Nevada.
So far so good.
Current Card:
5* Minnesota Golden Gophers -7 -120
2.5* Louisville Cardinals +6 -110
2.5* Duke Blue Devils -3 -120
1.5* Northwestern Wildcats +11 -110
1* Western Michigan Broncos +8 -110
Midweek:
3* Buffalo Bulls -9 -110 (win/tues)
2* Akron Zips -6.5 -110 (win/wed)
2* Northern Illinois Huskies +9.5 -110(loss/wed)
2* Maryland/Va Tech UNDER 41.5 -110 (win/thurs)
0.5* Nevada Wolfpack -2.5 -110 (pending)
Currently: 3-1, +4.80
Also gave a lean to Utah, which was a winner. And almost picked the exact score of the Va Tech game.
Looking to potentially add:
1. Bama -3/-4
2. Ok State +3/+4
3. San Jose State -9
4. Arkansas +12
Will probably add two of those 4 plays by 9:00am tomorrow.
5* Minnesota Golden Gophers -7 -120
2.5* Louisville Cardinals +6 -110
2.5* Duke Blue Devils -3 -120
1.5* Northwestern Wildcats +11 -110
1* Western Michigan Broncos +8 -110
Midweek:
3* Buffalo Bulls -9 -110 (win/tues)
2* Akron Zips -6.5 -110 (win/wed)
2* Northern Illinois Huskies +9.5 -110(loss/wed)
2* Maryland/Va Tech UNDER 41.5 -110 (win/thurs)
0.5* Nevada Wolfpack -2.5 -110 (pending)
Currently: 3-1, +4.80
Also gave a lean to Utah, which was a winner. And almost picked the exact score of the Va Tech game.
Looking to potentially add:
1. Bama -3/-4
2. Ok State +3/+4
3. San Jose State -9
4. Arkansas +12
Will probably add two of those 4 plays by 9:00am tomorrow.
1.5* San Jose State Spartans -7 -110
La Tech is really bad, and they are even worse away from home.
0-4 straight up and 0-4 ATS. Linemakers can't make a line high enough and give these guys enough points.
My line here is SJST -16.5. So a lot of value here.
SJST is the better team on a neutral field and they should be much better at home.
I dont care who plays QB for Tech Bennett or Jenkins they are both dreadful passers and wont be able to keep pace with SJST once they fall behind in this game. LA Tech is averaging 6 PPG on the road this year. No typo. 6 points per game on the road. Meanwhile, SJST only gives up 15 at home, so it's pretty easy to imagine La Tech scoring 10-14 points in this game, and that should be plenty of room to get a big cover for SJST.
A lot of trends pointing to SJST in this game:
Home team has won straight up 5 straight years in this series, 4 of those 5 games by double digits.
Bulldogs are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 road games. Bulldogs are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bulldogs are 6-21 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Bulldogs are 6-26-1 ATS in their last 33 games following a S.U. win.
All of those trends tell me La Tech is not only inconsistent, but a poor road team.
Meanwhile:
Spartans are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. win. Spartans are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games. Spartans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.
SJST is good at home, consistent, they can bounceback and they are undervalued a lot.
Only laying 1 score here.
Finally, La Tech is 0-4 ats last 4 vs. SJST. SJST has their number.
Take the motivated sound home team, vs. a horrible road team that can't score.
SJST 27
La Tech 14
La Tech is really bad, and they are even worse away from home.
0-4 straight up and 0-4 ATS. Linemakers can't make a line high enough and give these guys enough points.
My line here is SJST -16.5. So a lot of value here.
SJST is the better team on a neutral field and they should be much better at home.
I dont care who plays QB for Tech Bennett or Jenkins they are both dreadful passers and wont be able to keep pace with SJST once they fall behind in this game. LA Tech is averaging 6 PPG on the road this year. No typo. 6 points per game on the road. Meanwhile, SJST only gives up 15 at home, so it's pretty easy to imagine La Tech scoring 10-14 points in this game, and that should be plenty of room to get a big cover for SJST.
A lot of trends pointing to SJST in this game:
Home team has won straight up 5 straight years in this series, 4 of those 5 games by double digits.
Bulldogs are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 road games. Bulldogs are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bulldogs are 6-21 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Bulldogs are 6-26-1 ATS in their last 33 games following a S.U. win.
All of those trends tell me La Tech is not only inconsistent, but a poor road team.
Meanwhile:
Spartans are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. win. Spartans are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games. Spartans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.
SJST is good at home, consistent, they can bounceback and they are undervalued a lot.
Only laying 1 score here.
Finally, La Tech is 0-4 ats last 4 vs. SJST. SJST has their number.
Take the motivated sound home team, vs. a horrible road team that can't score.
SJST 27
La Tech 14
1* Alabama Crimson Tide -3 -120
My numbers show Bama as the significantly better team. Even if LSU comes out and plays the motivated game of their lives, I still have Bama -6.
Not a lot of people believe in Alabama but I do. They are a fundamentally sound team, that makes plays, has great coaching, and veteran reliable QB, very tough in the trenches, and tough overall.
Bama might not come out and win every game by 40 points and do it with style, but the signs they show on the field of being able to win the tight ones are remarkable.
No one is going to out tough Bama, and that is typically LSU's game, but LSU is not themselves this year. Down year for the Tigers and their homefield advantage is overrated (0-4 ATS last 4 at Tiger Stadium).
Dont put any faith in LSUs thumping of Tulane. Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Sure Bama has had their let down moments like vs. Kentucky. But the bottom line is nobody has beaten this team. And to be undefeated in the SEC is always an accomplishment.
LSU just doesnt have the playmakers on offense to take advantage of Bama and run around the edges. LSU is going to use Scott and co. and try to run right at Bama. Cody should be back for this game and even if he isnt, Bama has a lot of talent in the trenches on both sides of the ball. JPW is constantly being judged by last years performance, but this guy has grown up in a hurry. He has made some tremendous throws, with pinpoint accuracy.
Bama is a complete football team outside of special teams. The only way LSU makes this a game is to have Trindon Holliday return a kickoff or punt.
But Im not putting my money on that.
You wont line up and beat Bama for 4 quarters with smashmouth.
Dont buy into the LSU revenge deal on Saban. All of these current LSU players dont know anything about Saban, and Les Miles isnt about to get into a pissing match when he is outtalented on the field.
Bama is a solid team to put your money on on the road. Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Crimson Tide are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Louisiana State. Favorite is 4-1ats and the road team is 10-1.
Bama defense giving up just 9 PPG last 3 games, 12 PPG overall, and 17 PPG on the road. LSU doesnt have the QB or playmakers to make Bama pay in this game.
Alabama 27
LSU 20
My numbers show Bama as the significantly better team. Even if LSU comes out and plays the motivated game of their lives, I still have Bama -6.
Not a lot of people believe in Alabama but I do. They are a fundamentally sound team, that makes plays, has great coaching, and veteran reliable QB, very tough in the trenches, and tough overall.
Bama might not come out and win every game by 40 points and do it with style, but the signs they show on the field of being able to win the tight ones are remarkable.
No one is going to out tough Bama, and that is typically LSU's game, but LSU is not themselves this year. Down year for the Tigers and their homefield advantage is overrated (0-4 ATS last 4 at Tiger Stadium).
Dont put any faith in LSUs thumping of Tulane. Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Sure Bama has had their let down moments like vs. Kentucky. But the bottom line is nobody has beaten this team. And to be undefeated in the SEC is always an accomplishment.
LSU just doesnt have the playmakers on offense to take advantage of Bama and run around the edges. LSU is going to use Scott and co. and try to run right at Bama. Cody should be back for this game and even if he isnt, Bama has a lot of talent in the trenches on both sides of the ball. JPW is constantly being judged by last years performance, but this guy has grown up in a hurry. He has made some tremendous throws, with pinpoint accuracy.
Bama is a complete football team outside of special teams. The only way LSU makes this a game is to have Trindon Holliday return a kickoff or punt.
But Im not putting my money on that.
You wont line up and beat Bama for 4 quarters with smashmouth.
Dont buy into the LSU revenge deal on Saban. All of these current LSU players dont know anything about Saban, and Les Miles isnt about to get into a pissing match when he is outtalented on the field.
Bama is a solid team to put your money on on the road. Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Crimson Tide are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Louisiana State. Favorite is 4-1ats and the road team is 10-1.
Bama defense giving up just 9 PPG last 3 games, 12 PPG overall, and 17 PPG on the road. LSU doesnt have the QB or playmakers to make Bama pay in this game.
Alabama 27
LSU 20
Final Card:
5* Minnesota Golden Gophers -7 -120
2.5* Louisville Cardinals +6 -110
2.5* Duke Blue Devils -3 -120
1.5* Northwestern Wildcats +11 -110
1.5* San Jose State Spartans -7 -110
1* Western Michigan Broncos +8 -110
1* Alabama Crimson Tide -3 -120
Midweek:
3* Buffalo Bulls -9 -110 (win/tues)
2* Akron Zips -6.5 -110 (win/wed)
2* Northern Illinois Huskies +9.5 -110(loss/wed)
2* Maryland/Va Tech UNDER 41.5 -110 (win/thurs)
0.5* Nevada Wolfpack -2.5 -110 (win/fri)
Currently: 4-1, +5.30
YTD: 43-22, +38.05 units, 66%
Also gave a lean to Utah, which was a winner. And almost picked the exact score of the Va Tech game.
That should be it. I may have a play on the OKST game tomorrow afternoon.
Good luck this weekend.
5* Minnesota Golden Gophers -7 -120
2.5* Louisville Cardinals +6 -110
2.5* Duke Blue Devils -3 -120
1.5* Northwestern Wildcats +11 -110
1.5* San Jose State Spartans -7 -110
1* Western Michigan Broncos +8 -110
1* Alabama Crimson Tide -3 -120
Midweek:
3* Buffalo Bulls -9 -110 (win/tues)
2* Akron Zips -6.5 -110 (win/wed)
2* Northern Illinois Huskies +9.5 -110(loss/wed)
2* Maryland/Va Tech UNDER 41.5 -110 (win/thurs)
0.5* Nevada Wolfpack -2.5 -110 (win/fri)
Currently: 4-1, +5.30
YTD: 43-22, +38.05 units, 66%
Also gave a lean to Utah, which was a winner. And almost picked the exact score of the Va Tech game.
That should be it. I may have a play on the OKST game tomorrow afternoon.
Good luck this weekend.
