Hi Boxslayer !
i am new here and i realy like your picks alot , i know you are the man hear . Would you please take a look at these picks and let me know which one should i play ? these picks are from service i bought , please let me know what you think because the picks i bought i am not 100% trust , loose , win ........, thank you very much .
i am new here and i realy like your picks alot , i know you are the man hear . Would you please take a look at these picks and let me know which one should i play ? these picks are from service i bought , please let me know what you think because the picks i bought i am not 100% trust , loose , win ........, thank you very much .
you seem to be a great capper so far, but you come off to many people as quite annoying and immature, and maybe arrogant. these are all things that usually are associated with a capper who is on a hot streak (not a solid capper year after year) and are the reasons you get the responses you do. maybe you should take a lesson in humility from boxslayer and realize you are capable of losing.
Hi Boxslayer !
How are you today ? i am new here , i realy like your picks alot and i know you are the man here . Would you please take a look at these picks and tell me know which one should i play ? these picks i bought them from my service but i am not 100% trust ....... you know some win .some loose .... i would like you to tell me what is your suggestion ? thank you very much.
:think2:
Illinois at Western Michigan
The Broncos are much more consistent on offense and although we believe Illinois will put up some points, very convinced that WMU can not keep up but get a <NOBR>win</NOBR> here!
Western Michigan +7
Florida at Vanderbilt
Vandy has done very little on offense all season long and haven't faced a D anywhere close to this good. Vandy D is respectable, but again this offense is on another level. Florida keeps rolling over everybody in their path and happy to extend margins.
Florida -24
Arkansas at South Carolina
The Gamecock D will be too good here. SC 7-2 ATS as an SEC favorite and Arkansas not likely to stop returning QB Garcia.
South Carolina -12
San Diego State at BYU
BYU hasn't covered in their last 5 and although they are again the far superior team we believe it will be tough for them to be at max effort for SDSU who, if nothing else, can come through a back door.
San Diego State +36.5
Marshall at East Carolina
Marshall one of the more underrated teams in the country and East Carolina probably overrated.
Marshall +8
Arizona State at Washington
No doubt that any team should be favored vs Washington these days but we've seen enough from Arizona State to know that they aren't 2 TDs ahead of anybody right now. This could be a straight up upset!
Washington U +14
California at USC
USC making noise by hammering really bad teams lately, but when they've faced quality opponents this season they have not been dominant. Far too many point to turn down, Cal has the talent to keep this one close.
California +21
How are you today ? i am new here , i realy like your picks alot and i know you are the man here . Would you please take a look at these picks and tell me know which one should i play ? these picks i bought them from my service but i am not 100% trust ....... you know some win .some loose .... i would like you to tell me what is your suggestion ? thank you very much.
:think2:
Illinois at Western Michigan
The Broncos are much more consistent on offense and although we believe Illinois will put up some points, very convinced that WMU can not keep up but get a <NOBR>win</NOBR> here!
Western Michigan +7
Florida at Vanderbilt
Vandy has done very little on offense all season long and haven't faced a D anywhere close to this good. Vandy D is respectable, but again this offense is on another level. Florida keeps rolling over everybody in their path and happy to extend margins.
Florida -24
Arkansas at South Carolina
The Gamecock D will be too good here. SC 7-2 ATS as an SEC favorite and Arkansas not likely to stop returning QB Garcia.
South Carolina -12
San Diego State at BYU
BYU hasn't covered in their last 5 and although they are again the far superior team we believe it will be tough for them to be at max effort for SDSU who, if nothing else, can come through a back door.
San Diego State +36.5
Marshall at East Carolina
Marshall one of the more underrated teams in the country and East Carolina probably overrated.
Marshall +8
Arizona State at Washington
No doubt that any team should be favored vs Washington these days but we've seen enough from Arizona State to know that they aren't 2 TDs ahead of anybody right now. This could be a straight up upset!
Washington U +14
California at USC
USC making noise by hammering really bad teams lately, but when they've faced quality opponents this season they have not been dominant. Far too many point to turn down, Cal has the talent to keep this one close.
California +21
I appreciate your unbiased post. I would expect a guy named Geaux-Tigers to dismiss the 0-5ATS and give me hocus pocus about tailgating, earthquake seismographs, etc. Kudos on looking at this objectively.
Line value is with Bama, not sure how I lean yet. Line value was with TCU last night, but I leaned to Utah and hence was a no play.
If line value is with Bama and I lean to LSU, it will be a no play. If line value is with Bama and I lean to Bama, it will be a play on Bama. Hope that makes sense.
Careful teasing across the zero, especially in CFB where emotion can take over and teams can run away. You paid money to get on the #2, #1, etc. 2 is not a key number, 1 is not a key number, 0 is not a key number, -1 is not a key number, -2 is not a key number, 3 is a key number, and now +4 is not a key number (although I argue to an extent)
So you just bought 7 points and only one of them was a key number. You were probably better off just picking your winner and not having to rely on another wager to come in, + the heavier juice. So you paid a lot of money to move across a bunch of numbers that arent even key numbers.
If you like Bama, just bet them straight up. If you want to tease something, LSU has more value as you tease across the 4, 7 and 10.
Just a heads up.
GL!
Hard to say who the best is without being there at all of them. And different game situations produce different atmospheres. The home underdog always produces the loudest noise.
I was at an Auburn night game a few years back when they were underogs and it was LOUD. A UM fan will tell you the Swamp in Gainesville was quiet, but thats because the Gators were favored heavily and it was a boring game.
LSU at night is awesome. Georgia is good. BAMA, even during day games is awesome.
When you get a home SEC Underdog, vs. a heavily favored rival...you are in for a treat. I'd rank them like this:
1. LSU/Florida
2. Auburn (night game only)
3. Alabama
4. Tennessee
5. Georgia
Makes perfect sense. In far less sophisticated calculations with year to date results I make this one Bama -6.5 so I agree with you on the value. I was interested in your take on the line b/c of that, I think Bama is a slightly public side.
I would say that I think that the matchup analysis favors LSU moreso than against the other good teams they played as Bama doesn't have the playmakers on offense that UGA and UF do. Their strength is that defense and their OL.
1.5* Northwestern Wildcats +11 -110
These are the types of games that show you how Vegas was built. Home underdog, getting points, and the public not only willing to lay double digit road chalk on the big name team, but do it at a 60%+ clip.
One of the best pieces of advice I can give to a beginning gambler, is even if you like OSU in this game, and cant see yourself taking he other side, sometimes laying off the game altogether is as good as a win.
I'm obviously not guaranteeing a NW cover, at the end of the day we are all still gambling, but this is a -EV play for Buckeye backers.
Now that we know OSU isnt the side, do we lay off the game, or play NW?
My line actually has the Buckeyes at -7.5, ad then you have to factor in the motivation/momentum/intensity for NW in this game. From plenty of past experience in trial and error in this spot, I gave NW 8 points motivation.
Why? OSU is out of the Big Ten hunt. They are essentially 2 games back of Penn State because PSU owns the head to head tie breaker. That means OSU is essentially out of the BCS hunt as well. They are playing for a regular 'ole Joe Blow Bowl Game. Meanwhile, this is probably the game of the year for Northwestern. A good season for NW could turn very memorable and one of the greatest seasons in NW history with a big win over the Buckeyes. NW is at home, and whether you want to have Terrell Pryor's baby or not, he is still just a freshman making a road start in a hostile environment.
So we know NW is getting way too many points, we know they are at home, we know OSU has a freshman QB on the road, we know NW has all of the motivation, and OSU is not overly excited to go play NW at their house with a chance to go to the Outback Bowl.
So how does this shape up on the field?
Ohio State has not blown the doors off many opponents this season. They did at Mich State, and they did vs. Youngstown State. Other than that when this team wins they win in the 3-17 point range. They arent blowing people out. They typically score in the 16 to 28 point range.
NW meanwhile, lost one game by 17 and one by 2. Other than that this team has found a way to win 7 games this season. They are 4-1 at home.
I dont care who starts at QB for NW. Kafka ran for 200+ yards last game, he averaged 8 yards per pass, he can move his guys if he has to and he is at home. NW offense has averaged a season high 30 PPG last 3 games and they only give up 17PPG at home. OSU averages just 22 PPG on the road and 22PPG last 3 games.
I am keeping this play small because OSU is off a bye, and they are the better team. The better team doesnt always win, and they dont always cover, especially on the road. So it's not a play to unload on.
So we know NW wants to run the ball, and we know OSU wants to run the ball. Lots of clock getting chewed up in this game and it should be difficult to cover double digits.
Buckeyes continue to be overvalued as they are 2-7ATS in their last 9 games and people just cant seem to learn with them.
Home team in this series is 7-1-1ATS last 9 games.
Take the under the radar, motivated home team vs. the public darling road team that is disinterested laying double digits with a freshman QB.
Ohio State 24
Northwestern 19
These are the types of games that show you how Vegas was built. Home underdog, getting points, and the public not only willing to lay double digit road chalk on the big name team, but do it at a 60%+ clip.
One of the best pieces of advice I can give to a beginning gambler, is even if you like OSU in this game, and cant see yourself taking he other side, sometimes laying off the game altogether is as good as a win.
I'm obviously not guaranteeing a NW cover, at the end of the day we are all still gambling, but this is a -EV play for Buckeye backers.
Now that we know OSU isnt the side, do we lay off the game, or play NW?
My line actually has the Buckeyes at -7.5, ad then you have to factor in the motivation/momentum/intensity for NW in this game. From plenty of past experience in trial and error in this spot, I gave NW 8 points motivation.
Why? OSU is out of the Big Ten hunt. They are essentially 2 games back of Penn State because PSU owns the head to head tie breaker. That means OSU is essentially out of the BCS hunt as well. They are playing for a regular 'ole Joe Blow Bowl Game. Meanwhile, this is probably the game of the year for Northwestern. A good season for NW could turn very memorable and one of the greatest seasons in NW history with a big win over the Buckeyes. NW is at home, and whether you want to have Terrell Pryor's baby or not, he is still just a freshman making a road start in a hostile environment.
So we know NW is getting way too many points, we know they are at home, we know OSU has a freshman QB on the road, we know NW has all of the motivation, and OSU is not overly excited to go play NW at their house with a chance to go to the Outback Bowl.
So how does this shape up on the field?
Ohio State has not blown the doors off many opponents this season. They did at Mich State, and they did vs. Youngstown State. Other than that when this team wins they win in the 3-17 point range. They arent blowing people out. They typically score in the 16 to 28 point range.
NW meanwhile, lost one game by 17 and one by 2. Other than that this team has found a way to win 7 games this season. They are 4-1 at home.
I dont care who starts at QB for NW. Kafka ran for 200+ yards last game, he averaged 8 yards per pass, he can move his guys if he has to and he is at home. NW offense has averaged a season high 30 PPG last 3 games and they only give up 17PPG at home. OSU averages just 22 PPG on the road and 22PPG last 3 games.
I am keeping this play small because OSU is off a bye, and they are the better team. The better team doesnt always win, and they dont always cover, especially on the road. So it's not a play to unload on.
So we know NW wants to run the ball, and we know OSU wants to run the ball. Lots of clock getting chewed up in this game and it should be difficult to cover double digits.
Buckeyes continue to be overvalued as they are 2-7ATS in their last 9 games and people just cant seem to learn with them.
Home team in this series is 7-1-1ATS last 9 games.
Take the under the radar, motivated home team vs. the public darling road team that is disinterested laying double digits with a freshman QB.
Ohio State 24
Northwestern 19
