Man, you're telling me. Horrible day. Horrible. HORRIBLE. Never throw up airballs, but Ive got enough air balls here just in one day. Not even close on some of these games today. A lot of fat eggs. Not happy about it. But cant get too high or too low.
I will tell you one thing. And I'm not saying you don't already know this or anything. Just sharing a theory with the people that read this thread. If I were to have a gravestone in my gambling life, it is what I am about to say:
THIS is why Vegas wins. I believe this with every bone in my body. PEOPLE don't see the big picture. In every sport, the public only remembers last game. In gambling and handicapping... it is what have you done for me lately? People are always so willing to abandon their discipline and their principles to go with the hot team.
I can argue to the grave that THIS is the most important aspect to handicapping. You can have the best stats, the best money management in the world, but if you dont have the right foundation you are screwed. You can be disciplined and have superb money management, but if you hit 51% you will still lose, it will just take you longer.
I guarantee you there are people out there saying the following:
"I KNEW I should have laid the double digits on the road with Ohio State. I KNEW I should have dropped the house on _________(insert public fave that covered some ridiculous spread today). I KNEW I should have laid the road chalk. I knew I should have just bet the Trojans over the Cocoroaches. I KNEW this public shit was BS. I KNEW Minnesota was bad. I KNEW I should have just stuck to my gut and played the better team."
You can win 9 times in a row going with the sharp side, capping the game out, taking that unpopular dog because your capping told you so.....but the bottom line is it only takes 1 WIN by that square public team for the betting public to ABANDON all of their previous wins, and start betting square again.
It is like the devil and sin, constantly on your shoulder telling you in your one ear to bet that pretty looking favorite. And it only takes one loss for you to forget how you ever got to where you are.
And you see the post game threads all of the time. The guys who are smart after the game. "Why the heck did I bet on Western Michigan?" "TCU sucks." "Never again, I dont know why I keep betting on these teams." Abandoned. Those people are done. Now they are going to re-load with money, and bet the square favorites again, and fall back into the vicious cycle.
Minnesota was the right side today. Not because they outplayed the Buckeyes, not because they should have won, not because they got unlucky. But because the handicapping of the game, the matchups, the value, the trends, and the public dictated to take the unpopular home team in this spot. IT WINS OUT.
90% of the time, the public will lose this type of game and never come back to it again until all of that pretty money they won this week is all gone next week because they abandoned sound principles.
Maybe you agreed on a few plays on mine today. They lost. It was ugly. My question is will you stick to your guns next week? And if that loses again, will you stick to your guns the week after? Or will you give in to USC Trojans -23 on the road and play logos.
Once you have a foundation, system, routine, etc that works long term.....Sticking to your guns, sticking to a sound foundation and NEVER getting away from it if it works long term is the most important part of handicapping.
If Minny played Michigan at Minny next week, I'd be on Minny. They WILL LOSE this game 2, 3, 4 times. But they will win 6 of them.
