No, that is not what I do at all. It goes a lot more in depth than that.
I import all of the teams stats from NCAA.org into Excel using web queries that update automatically with the latest stats.
Each category is assigned a point value. So, for example, for red zone offense I divide the total number of points scored in the red zone, divided by the number of teams in the red zone to get average points scored per trip to red zone. Red zone offense minus red zone defense gives how much a teams offense outscores their defense in the redzone each game. If the difference is 2.3 per game, then I multiply that by 4 for example, and now "X" team has a 9.2 score for that area. Another team might be 6.1, now X team has a 3.1 point advantage in that area of the game.
This is done for all areas of the game (pentalties, turnovers, socring margin, defense, special teams, etc), multiplying by different point values depending on how important each area is. You get a final number for each team and you can subtract each number to determine a neutral site point spread.
That serves as a guide to show me line value. Once I identify games w/ line value, I cap them out for all other areas of the game that need to be looked at.
I guess I'm not the only one.
Dizz, you should clarify your comments. I've been on this board since 2004, and have been posting 60%+ winners in CFB on message boards since you were probably still in high school (judging by you saying you are in college). I have 11,000 posts, and you have 600. Trust me, I have survived in gambling for a long time. I hope you are not suggesting that I am copying your plays. If I am reading this wrong, let me know - but that's the way it is coming off.
R'dizz, if you don't want to take Box's word for it, you can take someone who has been around a long time....Box has been posting winners for a long time around here....to even suggest that he is copying stuff that you may have is fukkin ridiculous (which, by the way, is what seems to me to be implied by your post)......why do I feel that there will be some manufactured drama around the corner and r'dizz leaves the site to start a service...lol...seen it soooooooo many times
Sorry for jumping in the thread Box, as I should just ignore this stuff.....anyway, great season to date and best of luck the rest of the way...
looks like a tough one. really need to know motivation for each team and what situations they are in standings-wise for their conference, etc. WVU -10 at home for my line, but that doesnt include motivation.
this is a classic game where if you can figure out what kind of WVU team you are going to see and what kind of cincy team you are going to see you will have your answer.
what i mean by that, is we need to know just how important this game is to each team and who is going to come out a little more fired up. if there is no clear cut edge there and it's even, then i lean to WVU at -9, -8 or less and will NOT be a play for me if this is the case.
Damn Boxslayer, 60%+ over the last few years? That's unheard of. I'm glad I've found you for the rest of the season. We just had our 1st child, so my capping days are going to be nonexistent for the remainder of this season. Hopefully you don't mind if I go ahead and ride you through the Nat'l Championship? And if all goes well, your team and my team will be in South Beach! GL.
BoxSlayer...EZ bud...Not implying anything in that regard. I am implying that we VALUE the same games which is exactly what I wrote. We have been on the EXACT same last 6 games. I have read your posts before and know you like argumentative situations.(MistaFlava) I however do not.
Don't read into things so much. I said you were a GREAT capper and you respond with "High School" comments. I will leave you and your GREAT success alone. Sorry to intrude. Was implying we must cap the same way.
I will stay out of your thread. :think2:
Don't read into things so much. I said you were a GREAT capper and you respond with "High School" comments. I will leave you and your GREAT success alone. Sorry to intrude. Was implying we must cap the same way.
I will stay out of your thread. :think2:
I wouldn't get carried away 'Dizzle. He wasn't saying anything like you're thinking. That's the problem with the internet and writeups...you don't know what other people are saying because you can't hear their tone. Sounds like both sides are all good. It's great when both of you are on the same side. Both of you keep it up. GL.
thats what i have been looking at too. here is what i came up with for motivation, although i could be wrong.
1. cincy coming off an emotional home win last thursday night vs usf
2. night game at west virginia, tough place to play
3. wvu needs this game to stay in first place in the conference as they have a half game lead over this cincy team and over pitt
4. extra point here, wvu has cincy's # winning 3 straight vs them and overall 14-1 all time in the series.
the actual game:
1. wvu's defensive speed vs those cincy stretch handoff plays they run. rb's struggled to get vertical and didnt run right at the usf d.
2. pike still hurt, and although that big cast didnt effect him last game, it could this game. he threw countless balls into double coverage last game that just made you hold your breath.
3. cincy allowed 182 yards rushing at home vs usf last week who was without its #1 running back and who has been struggling to run as a team
4.cincy in all there road games, even the mac games, they have given up over 100+ yards on the ground including 150 to donald brown from uconn
5. only mobile qb they have played this year, grothe, had holes to run last game but chose not to. white should have his way
maybe i am missing something, but just thought id throw this stuff out there since im going over different games right now
I am fine with what you wrote. But I believe that was the 3rd time you brought up me having "your" plays. When other posters also agree that it sounded like you were impyling something, maybe I wasn't being as sensitive as you claim, and I felt the need to ask and give you the chance to clarify. I was pretty sure that's what you were implying and I wanted you to understand how ass backwards it would be for a guy with 11,000 posts to copy plays from a guy with 600 posts. Not implying that post count = intellect. But that numerically, it is not very logical to believe that. My point in bringing up that I have been 60%+ over the last few years was not to boast, but to show it wasnt like I was a 53% capper and suddenly this year, out of nowhere I am doing great and it's because you started posting on the board and now all of the sudden I am on a great run. I have been consistent for 3 years on here, and I have writeups with all of my plays.
In any event, it is water under the bridge. No need for you to stay out of the thread. Contrary to your belief about MistaFlava, I am here to make money. If our plays line up together, you are one of the few posters I am happy to be in the same company with. As I said, you have something special going on.
Feel free to stick around and chime in if you have things to say.
GL dude
PS - Do you have a certain criteria for identifying potential plays? Am curious to see how our plays are lining up as you orginally asked....
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2* Akron Zips -6.5 -110
Similar to tonight, if I am going to side with the public, I want to do it in the low profile game. Undefeated Ball State plays tomorrow, so the attention is on that game, and it is very little attention as it is a low-profile Wednesday night game.
Toledo is off a gut-wrenching home loss to Central Michigan. They had them beat and lost in the 4th quarter by a point. Now, they must travel on the road and face a very well-rested Akron team that is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week. Meanwhile. the Toledo Rockets are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 road games.
My models have Akron as a 15 point favorite at a neutral site between these two teams, and with this game being:
1. At Home for Akron
2. Off a bye week
3. Battling for bowl eligiblity (4 wins currently) with 4 games to go 2 of them at home. Similar to Buffalo tonight, this is a near must-win for Akron.
Toledo has just 2 wins, they are not threatening to play in a bowl game. They just got up for their one cindarella game last week vs. Central Mich and they came up short. I see no reason why this team that is just finishing out their season, would want to come out on the road vs. a .500 team and get fired up.
Akron meanwhile, has every reason to come out with intensity. They just had a bye week, they are itching to get back out on the field, they are very well-rested, they are at home on a national stage, and they need to get bowl eligible.
Toledo is averaging just 14.3 PPG on offense in their past 3 games and they are struggling to get in the end zone. Actually in their last 5 games, they have only scored 16+ points once, and that was a mere 23.
Zips have been undervalued and still are. Zips are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Akron 35
Toledo 20
Similar to tonight, if I am going to side with the public, I want to do it in the low profile game. Undefeated Ball State plays tomorrow, so the attention is on that game, and it is very little attention as it is a low-profile Wednesday night game.
Toledo is off a gut-wrenching home loss to Central Michigan. They had them beat and lost in the 4th quarter by a point. Now, they must travel on the road and face a very well-rested Akron team that is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week. Meanwhile. the Toledo Rockets are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 road games.
My models have Akron as a 15 point favorite at a neutral site between these two teams, and with this game being:
1. At Home for Akron
2. Off a bye week
3. Battling for bowl eligiblity (4 wins currently) with 4 games to go 2 of them at home. Similar to Buffalo tonight, this is a near must-win for Akron.
Toledo has just 2 wins, they are not threatening to play in a bowl game. They just got up for their one cindarella game last week vs. Central Mich and they came up short. I see no reason why this team that is just finishing out their season, would want to come out on the road vs. a .500 team and get fired up.
Akron meanwhile, has every reason to come out with intensity. They just had a bye week, they are itching to get back out on the field, they are very well-rested, they are at home on a national stage, and they need to get bowl eligible.
Toledo is averaging just 14.3 PPG on offense in their past 3 games and they are struggling to get in the end zone. Actually in their last 5 games, they have only scored 16+ points once, and that was a mere 23.
Zips have been undervalued and still are. Zips are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Akron 35
Toledo 20
2* Northern Illinois Huskies +9.5 -110
I havent played this yet at 9.5, I am going to wait and see if I can get 10, and I think the gamble is well worth it here. You have the public with Ball State, and I think holding out for the number 10 in risk of going down to 9 is always a good risk as 10 is a key number and 9 and 9.5 are not.
As undefeated, unbeaten, indestructible, invincible, never-gonna-lose, always-going-to-cover teams begin to dwindle down the public starts to learn their names and learn 'em well. Nobody knew or cared who Ball State was a few weeks ago, until now. Wednesday Night, gotta have action and throw my money on someone and Ball State is undefeated and at home. Easy money. Not so fast....
Ball State has the 2nd worst schedule in the NCAA according to my rankings, although Northern Illinois isn't too far ahead. This team has not been tested whatsoever. They have cruised against very easy opponents, and they are going to get a fight tonight and I don't think they are going to handle it well.
Northern Illinois is just 1 game out of the Eastern lead, looking up at Ball State as one of the teams. A win tonight would go a long way towards bow eligibility, an Eastern crown, and more. Simply put, this is a HUGE game for Northern Illinois. It is obviously also a very big game for Ball State, but my point here is that Ball State is in for a slug-it-out dog fight tonight. No cruising in this game, way too much at stake.
Northern Illinois has won 7 of the last 9 games vs. Ball State and they have won 4 straight at Ball State. If any team is not intimidated by Ball State and their perfect record, it is Northern Illinois who has beaten up on these guys for a decade. Northern Illinois has lost 3 games this year, none of them by more than 4 points. This is a tough team that has played plenty of tight games and have always been in the game.
My line here is -6.5 for Ball State, and getting this game over 7 and making it a 2 score game really makes me feel comfortable putting money on the Huskies.
Ball State's main strength is offense. They rely on it to score 30-40 points per game. But this is BY FAR the best defense they have faced this year. It is so lopsided it isn't even up for debate. Ball State is going to struggle once they have a team come out and battle them. Northern Illinois knows what it's like to get into dog fights. They have been in them all year and they have played well. But Ball State hasnt had a team come within 17 points of them. They havent been tested yet and they will be tonight.
Northern Illinois is 5-0 ATS in road games. That tells me alot about their makeup as a football team.
Huskies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. This is a team that continues to be undervalued normally, and now on a big stage vs. an undefeated team they are again being undervalued.
Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. This basically tells me that the Cardinals can't cover spreads if a team comes in and doesn't crap their pants and serve up the game. When they play teams that can handle the road environments and play tough football, they can't separate from their opponents like they are supposed to.
Huskies can play on the road, and their QB has a 5/2 TD/INT ratio, showing he isn't prone to lots of turnovers so far.
Overall, I think Ball State pulls this win out, and they lose at Central Michigan later in the year.
Ball State 27
Northern Illinois 23
I havent played this yet at 9.5, I am going to wait and see if I can get 10, and I think the gamble is well worth it here. You have the public with Ball State, and I think holding out for the number 10 in risk of going down to 9 is always a good risk as 10 is a key number and 9 and 9.5 are not.
As undefeated, unbeaten, indestructible, invincible, never-gonna-lose, always-going-to-cover teams begin to dwindle down the public starts to learn their names and learn 'em well. Nobody knew or cared who Ball State was a few weeks ago, until now. Wednesday Night, gotta have action and throw my money on someone and Ball State is undefeated and at home. Easy money. Not so fast....
Ball State has the 2nd worst schedule in the NCAA according to my rankings, although Northern Illinois isn't too far ahead. This team has not been tested whatsoever. They have cruised against very easy opponents, and they are going to get a fight tonight and I don't think they are going to handle it well.
Northern Illinois is just 1 game out of the Eastern lead, looking up at Ball State as one of the teams. A win tonight would go a long way towards bow eligibility, an Eastern crown, and more. Simply put, this is a HUGE game for Northern Illinois. It is obviously also a very big game for Ball State, but my point here is that Ball State is in for a slug-it-out dog fight tonight. No cruising in this game, way too much at stake.
Northern Illinois has won 7 of the last 9 games vs. Ball State and they have won 4 straight at Ball State. If any team is not intimidated by Ball State and their perfect record, it is Northern Illinois who has beaten up on these guys for a decade. Northern Illinois has lost 3 games this year, none of them by more than 4 points. This is a tough team that has played plenty of tight games and have always been in the game.
My line here is -6.5 for Ball State, and getting this game over 7 and making it a 2 score game really makes me feel comfortable putting money on the Huskies.
Ball State's main strength is offense. They rely on it to score 30-40 points per game. But this is BY FAR the best defense they have faced this year. It is so lopsided it isn't even up for debate. Ball State is going to struggle once they have a team come out and battle them. Northern Illinois knows what it's like to get into dog fights. They have been in them all year and they have played well. But Ball State hasnt had a team come within 17 points of them. They havent been tested yet and they will be tonight.
Northern Illinois is 5-0 ATS in road games. That tells me alot about their makeup as a football team.
Huskies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. This is a team that continues to be undervalued normally, and now on a big stage vs. an undefeated team they are again being undervalued.
Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. This basically tells me that the Cardinals can't cover spreads if a team comes in and doesn't crap their pants and serve up the game. When they play teams that can handle the road environments and play tough football, they can't separate from their opponents like they are supposed to.
Huskies can play on the road, and their QB has a 5/2 TD/INT ratio, showing he isn't prone to lots of turnovers so far.
Overall, I think Ball State pulls this win out, and they lose at Central Michigan later in the year.
Ball State 27
Northern Illinois 23
