5* Minnesota Golden Gophers -7 -120
As good of a line value as I have had in awhile. Still, when I am investing this much on one play, I don't mind hooking it here and throwing a couple of extra bucks out there as insurance to make this a 1 score game.
A lot of things fall into place for this game:
1. A big name, recognizable logo, public university like Michigan creating line value immediately in this game bc of their reputation vs. a relatively unknown school like Minnesota.
2. Tremendous line value. My models all have Minnesota winning by at least 28 points, and as much as 35 points.
3. An upstart team with good coaching having the season of their lives going up against a team that has all but quit and has no hopes of bowl eligibility and is playing games just to go through the motions and figure things out for next year.
4. Great trends in favor of this game including:
- Golden Gophers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Golden Gophers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
- Wolverines are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
- Wolverines are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
5. A disinterested team vs. a very interested team. Minnesota has been whooped by Michigan for a long time and this is a big game for Minny to get some payback. Even if Michigan was a good team this year, they would not really be interested in this Minny game.
6. Team I am betting on is at home and is a good home team. Road team is bad on the road. Michigan 0-3 straight up on the road. Minny 3-1 at home straight up. Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Golden Gophers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
7. Michigan has no identity on offense or defense. They can't figure out what kind of offense they want to run or who should be running it. Can't figure out what kind of defense they want to run.
8. Better decision making at QB: Weber 11/4 TD/INT ratio and 66% completion. Threet 9/6. 50% completion.
9. Better defense (Minnesota) by a mile.
10. Good bounceback spot for Minnesota who may have been looking ahead to this game during Northwestern.
11. 2nd road game in a row for Michigan, and 3rd road game in 4 weeks. Michigan has lost 5 straight overall. They arent even close to winning.
12. Injury report favors Minny.
13. Michigan giving up 43 PPG on the road.
Minnesota 38
Michigan 17
As good of a line value as I have had in awhile. Still, when I am investing this much on one play, I don't mind hooking it here and throwing a couple of extra bucks out there as insurance to make this a 1 score game.
A lot of things fall into place for this game:
1. A big name, recognizable logo, public university like Michigan creating line value immediately in this game bc of their reputation vs. a relatively unknown school like Minnesota.
2. Tremendous line value. My models all have Minnesota winning by at least 28 points, and as much as 35 points.
3. An upstart team with good coaching having the season of their lives going up against a team that has all but quit and has no hopes of bowl eligibility and is playing games just to go through the motions and figure things out for next year.
4. Great trends in favor of this game including:
- Golden Gophers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Golden Gophers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
- Wolverines are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
- Wolverines are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
5. A disinterested team vs. a very interested team. Minnesota has been whooped by Michigan for a long time and this is a big game for Minny to get some payback. Even if Michigan was a good team this year, they would not really be interested in this Minny game.
6. Team I am betting on is at home and is a good home team. Road team is bad on the road. Michigan 0-3 straight up on the road. Minny 3-1 at home straight up. Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Golden Gophers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
7. Michigan has no identity on offense or defense. They can't figure out what kind of offense they want to run or who should be running it. Can't figure out what kind of defense they want to run.
8. Better decision making at QB: Weber 11/4 TD/INT ratio and 66% completion. Threet 9/6. 50% completion.
9. Better defense (Minnesota) by a mile.
10. Good bounceback spot for Minnesota who may have been looking ahead to this game during Northwestern.
11. 2nd road game in a row for Michigan, and 3rd road game in 4 weeks. Michigan has lost 5 straight overall. They arent even close to winning.
12. Injury report favors Minny.
13. Michigan giving up 43 PPG on the road.
Minnesota 38
Michigan 17
3* Buffalo Bulls -9 -110
Sometimes on games like this, you get a certain vibe, and you want to see some line movement budge before you make your pick. The line movement from 7.5 to 9 and losing that point and a half over non key numbers 8 and 8.5 was the final justification to me for siding with the public and making this pick.
The public was burned like a bad case of herpes last week on mid week games. Actually for the past few weeks on midweek games. The public doesn't always lose, and this low-profile Tuesday night game is where they will get one of their wins. So I am not concerned siding with 65% here, which is usually a nice big red flag for me.
Buffalo has tremendous line value in this game, and the drastic and quick line movement in favor of Buffalo shows me Vegas put out a soft line here and the huge move over 1.5 points solidifies this pick for me.
Buffalo is still an under the radar team right now because they can do some things offensively and run away with this game.
Miami of Ohio is horrible. Horrible. They will serve this game up on a silver platter for Buffalo.
With just 2 wins on the year and bowl eligibility a distant memory, Miami will be going through the motions on the road vs. a very fired up Buffalo team 2 wins away from bowl eligibility. Tonight is a must win for Buffalo with two home games left and this being one of them and they will not fall asleep at the wheel here.
Miami fo Ohio has beaten Buffalo 100 straight times, and Buffalo wants this game bad for all of the right reasons.
Drew Willy continues to stay efficient and effective leading a fun offense with a 15/4 TD/INT ratio and over 60% completion percentage. Meanwhile QB play has been very inconsistent for MiamiRaudabagh and Belton just arent getting it done.
Buffalo lost by 7 2 years ago, 3 last year and now they are favored by 9. This team has closed the gap and they are going in opposite directions with the Red Hawks.
Similar to last week vs. Ohio, everyone in Big Ten country knows Miami of Ohio (although they are obviously not a Big Ten team) and few know what Bufalo is capable of. Big Ben is a former Red Hawk and that is about all the public knows of Miami Ohio. Some false perception creates value here on a Buffalo team that very few follow.
Miami has lost 4 of their past 5 and 8 of their last 10.
Buffalo does not have let downs vs. these types of teams as the Bulls are 10-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Buffalo 34
Miami (Ohio) 17
Sometimes on games like this, you get a certain vibe, and you want to see some line movement budge before you make your pick. The line movement from 7.5 to 9 and losing that point and a half over non key numbers 8 and 8.5 was the final justification to me for siding with the public and making this pick.
The public was burned like a bad case of herpes last week on mid week games. Actually for the past few weeks on midweek games. The public doesn't always lose, and this low-profile Tuesday night game is where they will get one of their wins. So I am not concerned siding with 65% here, which is usually a nice big red flag for me.
Buffalo has tremendous line value in this game, and the drastic and quick line movement in favor of Buffalo shows me Vegas put out a soft line here and the huge move over 1.5 points solidifies this pick for me.
Buffalo is still an under the radar team right now because they can do some things offensively and run away with this game.
Miami of Ohio is horrible. Horrible. They will serve this game up on a silver platter for Buffalo.
With just 2 wins on the year and bowl eligibility a distant memory, Miami will be going through the motions on the road vs. a very fired up Buffalo team 2 wins away from bowl eligibility. Tonight is a must win for Buffalo with two home games left and this being one of them and they will not fall asleep at the wheel here.
Miami fo Ohio has beaten Buffalo 100 straight times, and Buffalo wants this game bad for all of the right reasons.
Drew Willy continues to stay efficient and effective leading a fun offense with a 15/4 TD/INT ratio and over 60% completion percentage. Meanwhile QB play has been very inconsistent for MiamiRaudabagh and Belton just arent getting it done.
Buffalo lost by 7 2 years ago, 3 last year and now they are favored by 9. This team has closed the gap and they are going in opposite directions with the Red Hawks.
Similar to last week vs. Ohio, everyone in Big Ten country knows Miami of Ohio (although they are obviously not a Big Ten team) and few know what Bufalo is capable of. Big Ben is a former Red Hawk and that is about all the public knows of Miami Ohio. Some false perception creates value here on a Buffalo team that very few follow.
Miami has lost 4 of their past 5 and 8 of their last 10.
Buffalo does not have let downs vs. these types of teams as the Bulls are 10-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Buffalo 34
Miami (Ohio) 17
Box - Do you have any concerns about last weeks demoralizing loss? I mean thats as tough as a loss as your going to get. It's a type of loss that can really mess up season's. Obviously you don't think it's an issue based on the strength of your play just trying to get your take on it. That is really the only reason holding me back from absolutely pounding the Gophers this week.
I don't think it was demoralizing. This team is giddy to be 7-2, they have had a tremendous turn around and have great expectations considering last year.
They got caught in retrospect what looks to be a look ahead game. As bad as Michigan is, there are a lot of teams that still get excited to play them.
There have been a couple of high profile season crushers this season: USC and Florida. Couple of bad, season crushing losses. They came back next game and throttled their opponents.
I like the coaching staff on Minny and I think this is a big game for them and a good game to take their frustrations out on.
arty:Minny looked awful last week but Michigan hasn't looked good all year. Michigan vs. Minny is for the Little Brown Jug which is actually a big deal normally but as a Michigan fan I really don't feel that either RichRod or this very young team understands what a big deal the jug is so pianfully I have to say I'm on Minny with you
Randizzle,
Checked out your thread and it looks like we do find value similarly as Houston is also on my radar as a potential play, as is Duke.
You can see what I am going to be on every week. I post the lines that I use as a guide to determine line value at the beginning of my thread.
Still not sure what "AMOV" is but a quick google search makes it seem like it is some kind of a system.
Reading back at what you wrote, I hope you are not trying to say that I am copying your plays?
Checked out your thread and it looks like we do find value similarly as Houston is also on my radar as a potential play, as is Duke.
You can see what I am going to be on every week. I post the lines that I use as a guide to determine line value at the beginning of my thread.
Still not sure what "AMOV" is but a quick google search makes it seem like it is some kind of a system.
Reading back at what you wrote, I hope you are not trying to say that I am copying your plays?
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