Merry Christmas everyone...
A little Christmas thought in wake of some of the comments last night about Syracuse and Cincinatti:
I think what people need to learn to understand the 10-80-10 concept. It applies to a lot of things in life, especially sports handicapping. 10-80-10 can represent percentages, or in the case of college football it is more like 1-8-1, which represents games played.
A few examples to understand the concept for those that aren't familiar:
In baseball, a starter is going to be lights out 10% of his starts, he'll have 10% of his starts where nothing goes right, and what defines him as a pitcher is how he does in the other 80% of his starts.
If you become a manager as a career, you will have 1 of your workers who stay late after work and take things seriously and go the extra mile. You'll have 1 of your workers cut corners and leave early. And you'll have 8 workers who are middle of the pack and just show up on time and leave on time and do just is what is required of them.
And in college football, if you have a 10 game sample, you will have 1 game you will see a team just lose a game they probably shouldn't (in this case Utah State for Hawaii and Syracuse for Notre Dame). You'll have 1 game where each team plays over their heads (Pittsburgh for Notre Dame and Cincy for Hawaii). But it is the other 8 games that define who this team really is.
I think the biggest mistake people make is they try to find that one sore spot game that stands out on the schedule and they try to base the teams entire body of work off that game. In this case, people were saying that Notre Dame lost to Syracuse and Hawaii > Syracuse. So Hawaii should also be able to give Notre Dame problems. That is not how you handicap.
Gotta learn when looking at schedules like these two teams played to discard their 1 great game that stands out and discard their 1 poor game that stands out, and then handicap the team with what you have left. When you handicap, you want to determine what is the most likely outcome of this game. That means you need to find out what is the most likely way Notre Dame will come out and play and what is the most likely way that Hawaii will come out and play. In the case of the game upcoming between Central Michigan and FAU, a lot of people are going to get thrown off their handicapping because FAU and FIU had a final score last week of 56-50. And Central Michigan also had a final score last week that was similar - 52-56.
But that is not how these two teams typically play and people are usually very short sighted and only remember what teams have done recently. They'll ignore the fact that FAU scores 25 points per game.... all they see is that 56 points last week - which they haven't even come close to scoring all season.
A little Christmas thought in wake of some of the comments last night about Syracuse and Cincinatti:
I think what people need to learn to understand the 10-80-10 concept. It applies to a lot of things in life, especially sports handicapping. 10-80-10 can represent percentages, or in the case of college football it is more like 1-8-1, which represents games played.
A few examples to understand the concept for those that aren't familiar:
In baseball, a starter is going to be lights out 10% of his starts, he'll have 10% of his starts where nothing goes right, and what defines him as a pitcher is how he does in the other 80% of his starts.
If you become a manager as a career, you will have 1 of your workers who stay late after work and take things seriously and go the extra mile. You'll have 1 of your workers cut corners and leave early. And you'll have 8 workers who are middle of the pack and just show up on time and leave on time and do just is what is required of them.
And in college football, if you have a 10 game sample, you will have 1 game you will see a team just lose a game they probably shouldn't (in this case Utah State for Hawaii and Syracuse for Notre Dame). You'll have 1 game where each team plays over their heads (Pittsburgh for Notre Dame and Cincy for Hawaii). But it is the other 8 games that define who this team really is.
I think the biggest mistake people make is they try to find that one sore spot game that stands out on the schedule and they try to base the teams entire body of work off that game. In this case, people were saying that Notre Dame lost to Syracuse and Hawaii > Syracuse. So Hawaii should also be able to give Notre Dame problems. That is not how you handicap.
Gotta learn when looking at schedules like these two teams played to discard their 1 great game that stands out and discard their 1 poor game that stands out, and then handicap the team with what you have left. When you handicap, you want to determine what is the most likely outcome of this game. That means you need to find out what is the most likely way Notre Dame will come out and play and what is the most likely way that Hawaii will come out and play. In the case of the game upcoming between Central Michigan and FAU, a lot of people are going to get thrown off their handicapping because FAU and FIU had a final score last week of 56-50. And Central Michigan also had a final score last week that was similar - 52-56.
But that is not how these two teams typically play and people are usually very short sighted and only remember what teams have done recently. They'll ignore the fact that FAU scores 25 points per game.... all they see is that 56 points last week - which they haven't even come close to scoring all season.
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Bowl Control is the difference in capping a regular season game and a bowl game. Before last night you didn't have it. By capping a game like you do normally for regular season games you will lose your bowl games. It's a total different way to handicap a bowl game. Now I got all messed up by picking Hawaii. I lost the bowl control. For a moment. Ace Who? backers don't be alarmed about my loss it was one game and this site wasn't letting me on so I couldn't post the over which I took large. Not the point because I couldn't post it. Please don't bash the bowl control theory... Or the Bowl G-d's will get you. I know you will be on point from here on out. You were almost there all Bowl season but now you got it. You needed that win last night. Or you would've had a huge explosion of DIARRHEA in your pants. Since you did win : Note you don't need to wear the diapers that I'm wearing at the moment. I need this win next game or I may wear these diapers until Super Bowl. You are the man with clean pants. Bol Boxslayer!
AcE WhO?™
AcE WhO?™
I'm going to put Christmas spirit aside for a minute to ask what kind of freaking idiot you are. Could you be any more condescending? Go back to the first post in this thread and check Box's bowl record and also check his regular season record.
Where is your track record? Post it up.
Ok tough guy! I'm fooling around with Boxslayer he's a great capper. Now for my other stuff that I've wrote was a joke. Look what time I posted that stuff. It was like 4:37 in the morning I was f ing around with him. And the last post that I posted I'm messing with him as well. For my record, I'm winning money during the bowl games. You should calm down. I'm screwing around. Boxslayer was losing these early games by almost a point or two. This guy is on his game. I get a little weird in the early morning. Boxslayer to get things straighten out, don't take this stuff personally. I want you to win and win big. I'm fooling around. I've said that like a hundred times now. I'm Sorry if I've bothered you and your thread. Win that money. And to you DonnyB I hope I haven't ruined your x'mas spirit. I'm sorry!
Aw?™
Bowl Control is the difference in capping a regular season game and a bowl game. Before last night you didn't have it. By capping a game like you do normally for regular season games you will lose your bowl games. It's a total different way to handicap a bowl game. Now I got all messed up by picking Hawaii. I lost the bowl control. For a moment. Ace Who? backers don't be alarmed about my loss it was one game and this site wasn't letting me on so I couldn't post the over which I took large. Not the point because I couldn't post it. Please don't bash the bowl control theory... Or the Bowl G-d's will get you. I know you will be on point from here on out. You were almost there all Bowl season but now you got it. You needed that win last night. Or you would've had a huge explosion of DIARRHEA in your pants. Since you did win : Note you don't need to wear the diapers that I'm wearing at the moment. I need this win next game or I may wear these diapers until Super Bowl. You are the man with clean pants. Bol Boxslayer!
AcE WhO?™
Merry X'mas to you BoxSlayer!!
AcE WhO?™
Merry X'mas to you BoxSlayer!!
