3* Notre Dame Fighting Irish -2 -110
The Line: Whenever you deal with Notre Dame you always have built in value in almost every line to fade them. Notre Dame is typically chalk city in games like this, but for once, you get the Irish at a reasonable price, essentially a moneyline bet. The reason for that is the road trip to Hawaii, which also always inflates lines in favor of Hawaii. So essentially, the homefield value of Hawaii and the public inflation of Notre Dame has cancelled each other out and you are left with this line. This is one of the few times I will play the Irish, and I think this spot sets up nicely for them.
My Line: Hawaii -3 (from the excel sheet)
Trends: Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Fighting Irish are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Bowl games. Fighting Irish are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Stat of the Game: Hawaii averages 11 points per game when facing a top 25 pass efficiency defense. ND pass eff D ranks #18.
Analysis: Notre Dame's bowl record is well documented. They have lost 7 straight if I'm not mistaken. Their problems as a team, head coaching problems, etc have also been well documented. And because of their struggles, media coverage, TV contract, etc it has almost become the cliched, popular choice to hate on Notre Dame.
Meanwhile, Hawaii is another easy team to like. They do their little pregame dance, they play with some intensity, and their offenses have typically lit up the scoreboard and people LOVE offense. Playing out in Hawaii with this "essentially a home game angle" is the exact type of common sense angle that has given bettors comfort in doing the ever-popular Irish fade.
The problem here is Hawaii is not anywhere remotely close to being the team that cruised through the WAC last year and got crushed by what proved to be an above average Georgia team. And since losing Brady Quinn. Notre Dame has not been close to their BCS team that got blown out by LSU.
Ive had a chance to see Hawaii a few times this year, and saw them right out of the ate vs. Florida this year, and they were putrid. This team is currently an average to above average WAC team, they are seriously nothing special and they do not possess anywhere near the offensive effectiveness or efficiency from the June Jones days. Hawaii scored 10 on Florida (late score on 2nd and 3rd string defense), 7 on Oregon State, 7 on Boise State, 17 on San Jose State, 14 on Utah State, and closed the season with back to back 24 point outputs. That is bad offense.
Hawaii's wins over Weber State, Idao, Washington State and Nex Mexico State gave this team 4 autmatic wins. TIGHT wins over Nevada, Lousiana Tech and an overtime win over Fresno gave this team bowl eligibility. As bad as Notre Dames let down vs. Syracuse was, Hawaiis loss to Utah State may be just as bad.
Notre Dame missed a bowl game entirely last year, and they havent had a chance to avenge that blowout loss under Weis. The common theme with Notre Dame bowl games is they usually get the SEC Treatment, which is to say like SEC teams who usually have the 5th best team in their league playing vs. a #2 or #3 best team from another conference, Notre Dame is always relied on its ticket selling power to play a big name school to create a marquee matchup. Notre Dame is typically over their heads, their success is typically the result of playing every armed force academy team in the country from Navy, Coast Guard and Marines. People usually call fraud on that type of schedule when Notre Dame matches up with a Pac-10 or SEC force in a bowl game.
This is different though. For the first time in a long time, Notre Dame comes into a bowl game matched up against an opponent that they are physically better than. They come into this bowl game with that big red X on their back shrinking with every loss. Beating Notre Dame just isnt as big of a deal as it used to be, and that makes teams less motivated to face them. Charlie Weis is guanranteed to come back next year and that is because his recruiting classes have been stellar and he will get another year to see what he can do with his big time athletes. His freshmen and sophomores are a good crop, and he will use this game as a springboard for them to build off of going into next year. Make no mistake, because of their blowout BCS loss to LSU, and their missing of a bowl game, and their 7 straight bowl losses, Notre Dame comes into this game desperate for a win.
Notre Dame doesnt have any signature wins on the season, but they have played a tougher overall schedule than Hawaii. I'm not saying Notre Dame played more high profile teams than Hawaii, because Hawaii played Florida, Oregon State and Boise State. But outside of those 3 games, Boise played a weak WAC schedule, while Notre Dame plays a nationwide schedule.
Notre Dame's win over Navy is actually a solid win. Their 4 OT game with Pitt showed some heart. Notre Dames defense is actually underrated, mever really ever giving up a 40 spot like you would expect to see from a 6 loss team. In fact, they allowed just 1 team to crack 30 in regulation and that was USC. (Pitt needed 4 overtimes to crack 30 and had 24 at regulation). Elite defenses like USC and BC have been able to shut the Irish down, but the return of their young WR will make a big difference in their offensive attack vs. an undersized Hawaii defense.
With OC Haywood taking the Miami job, Charlie Weis will continue to call plays, and this is actually his strength as a coach. Tom Brady can make anybody look good, but he used to call the perfect plays in the perfect situatons with New England. His head coaching ability and ability to build a program and delegate seems poor, but Charlie Weis can call plays with the best of them.
With Notre Dame desperate to win, focused on winning, the better players, the more physical players, etc I really like Notre Dame to take advantage of their bowl matchup vs. an outmatched team, and cruise to victory.
Notre Dame 31
Hawaii 21
The Line: Whenever you deal with Notre Dame you always have built in value in almost every line to fade them. Notre Dame is typically chalk city in games like this, but for once, you get the Irish at a reasonable price, essentially a moneyline bet. The reason for that is the road trip to Hawaii, which also always inflates lines in favor of Hawaii. So essentially, the homefield value of Hawaii and the public inflation of Notre Dame has cancelled each other out and you are left with this line. This is one of the few times I will play the Irish, and I think this spot sets up nicely for them.
My Line: Hawaii -3 (from the excel sheet)
Trends: Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Fighting Irish are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Bowl games. Fighting Irish are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Stat of the Game: Hawaii averages 11 points per game when facing a top 25 pass efficiency defense. ND pass eff D ranks #18.
Analysis: Notre Dame's bowl record is well documented. They have lost 7 straight if I'm not mistaken. Their problems as a team, head coaching problems, etc have also been well documented. And because of their struggles, media coverage, TV contract, etc it has almost become the cliched, popular choice to hate on Notre Dame.
Meanwhile, Hawaii is another easy team to like. They do their little pregame dance, they play with some intensity, and their offenses have typically lit up the scoreboard and people LOVE offense. Playing out in Hawaii with this "essentially a home game angle" is the exact type of common sense angle that has given bettors comfort in doing the ever-popular Irish fade.
The problem here is Hawaii is not anywhere remotely close to being the team that cruised through the WAC last year and got crushed by what proved to be an above average Georgia team. And since losing Brady Quinn. Notre Dame has not been close to their BCS team that got blown out by LSU.
Ive had a chance to see Hawaii a few times this year, and saw them right out of the ate vs. Florida this year, and they were putrid. This team is currently an average to above average WAC team, they are seriously nothing special and they do not possess anywhere near the offensive effectiveness or efficiency from the June Jones days. Hawaii scored 10 on Florida (late score on 2nd and 3rd string defense), 7 on Oregon State, 7 on Boise State, 17 on San Jose State, 14 on Utah State, and closed the season with back to back 24 point outputs. That is bad offense.
Hawaii's wins over Weber State, Idao, Washington State and Nex Mexico State gave this team 4 autmatic wins. TIGHT wins over Nevada, Lousiana Tech and an overtime win over Fresno gave this team bowl eligibility. As bad as Notre Dames let down vs. Syracuse was, Hawaiis loss to Utah State may be just as bad.
Notre Dame missed a bowl game entirely last year, and they havent had a chance to avenge that blowout loss under Weis. The common theme with Notre Dame bowl games is they usually get the SEC Treatment, which is to say like SEC teams who usually have the 5th best team in their league playing vs. a #2 or #3 best team from another conference, Notre Dame is always relied on its ticket selling power to play a big name school to create a marquee matchup. Notre Dame is typically over their heads, their success is typically the result of playing every armed force academy team in the country from Navy, Coast Guard and Marines. People usually call fraud on that type of schedule when Notre Dame matches up with a Pac-10 or SEC force in a bowl game.
This is different though. For the first time in a long time, Notre Dame comes into a bowl game matched up against an opponent that they are physically better than. They come into this bowl game with that big red X on their back shrinking with every loss. Beating Notre Dame just isnt as big of a deal as it used to be, and that makes teams less motivated to face them. Charlie Weis is guanranteed to come back next year and that is because his recruiting classes have been stellar and he will get another year to see what he can do with his big time athletes. His freshmen and sophomores are a good crop, and he will use this game as a springboard for them to build off of going into next year. Make no mistake, because of their blowout BCS loss to LSU, and their missing of a bowl game, and their 7 straight bowl losses, Notre Dame comes into this game desperate for a win.
Notre Dame doesnt have any signature wins on the season, but they have played a tougher overall schedule than Hawaii. I'm not saying Notre Dame played more high profile teams than Hawaii, because Hawaii played Florida, Oregon State and Boise State. But outside of those 3 games, Boise played a weak WAC schedule, while Notre Dame plays a nationwide schedule.
Notre Dame's win over Navy is actually a solid win. Their 4 OT game with Pitt showed some heart. Notre Dames defense is actually underrated, mever really ever giving up a 40 spot like you would expect to see from a 6 loss team. In fact, they allowed just 1 team to crack 30 in regulation and that was USC. (Pitt needed 4 overtimes to crack 30 and had 24 at regulation). Elite defenses like USC and BC have been able to shut the Irish down, but the return of their young WR will make a big difference in their offensive attack vs. an undersized Hawaii defense.
With OC Haywood taking the Miami job, Charlie Weis will continue to call plays, and this is actually his strength as a coach. Tom Brady can make anybody look good, but he used to call the perfect plays in the perfect situatons with New England. His head coaching ability and ability to build a program and delegate seems poor, but Charlie Weis can call plays with the best of them.
With Notre Dame desperate to win, focused on winning, the better players, the more physical players, etc I really like Notre Dame to take advantage of their bowl matchup vs. an outmatched team, and cruise to victory.
Notre Dame 31
Hawaii 21
You know a backdoor hawaii touchdown could be the bite in the ass to your prediction here. I have a ton of respect for your write-ups as you can see I have nothing else better to read at 4:37 in the morning. But you have been getting pinched by the littlest fart from what I like to call a backdoor bite in the ass. I don't want to tell you who I think is going cover this game, it's obvious who side I'm on here! One thing that you might want to get in the right state of mind here - Bowl season has to be capped almost like the opposite of a regular season college foots game. Your almost perfect with the predictions but you need a little tweak. Then you'll be perect. Bol. Ace Who? Is here for questioning!!!!
Haywood taking the Miami(OH) job is a blessing in disguise for ND. Have to believe Weis will add a little flavor to a bland ND offense. ND's running game will be the biggest difference in this game by keeping Hawaii's O off the field. Could be an otherwise boring game but ND will prevail 24-10.
Good luck to all during the balance of bowl season and Happy Holidays
Good luck to all during the balance of bowl season and Happy Holidays
Have you watched football all season long? If you have watched college football all season long, these games have been pretty true to form. Okay, Boise covers last night, we all know TCU was the better team there. But do you realize what much of football comes down to, coaching. Boise simply had a better gameplan, so I can almost understand your little "tweak" there getting points with a great coach, but (3.5) is a hard point spread to take considering TCU's FG kicker is among the worst in the nation, if you thought TCU was going to win, it was likely that they won by atleast 4. But in that situation it's an unpredictable backdoor. Can't say Box was wrong for knowing TCU was the better team, it's gambling, you lose some. I could go on with the rest of the games but there is no need to. But to come in here and tell Box, that his write-ups are great and all he needs is a "tweak" is basically saying that "tweak" is to change his bet to the opposite side. (Great write-ups Box, but you should go against what you are saying, they are bowl games.) Bullshit.
Anyways, good luck with your backdoor 2.5 point cover. That's all for me
That is BS as the TCU kicker was a Lou Groza Semi Finalist this year.
http://www.lougrozaaward.com/2008finalists
He just had a bad day in Utah
Maybe it was 4:44am. But this post makes no sense.
And just because I get backdoored a couple games, does NOT mean you start changing the way you handicap games. It's like playing poker and having pocket Kings vs. Jacks and a Jack comes on the river, and now all of the sudden I change the way I play poker.
I also don't need to be told how to cap bowl season, especially if it involves hancdicapping games for hours, putting together a logical analysis and then going the complete opposite, just bc it's bowl season.
I just don't understand the post.
If you want to talk about why Hawaii is going to cover instead of Notre Dame, I am all ears. I am not a nazi. But I'd like to hear some reasoning regarding the football game.
The excel sheet is just a guide. If I always went with what the excel sheet told me and disregarded everything I knew about the game of football, I would hit 52% or so. There have been a lot of times where I ignore the excel sheet. For example, the excel sheet said BYU was a 6 point favorite based on numbers.
There are obviously other intangibles and factors to consider besides stats.
If the numbers suggested Hawaii was a 10 point favorite it may be different. But the number suggest Hawaii is a field goal better, the spread is ND -2. This is basically pick your winner.
Weis took over the final 3 games of the season and they went 1-2. However, you have to remember that ND was missing their best offensive WR Michael Floyd during that 3 game stretch. Floyd was a 5* WR recruit out of HS, is a mismtach for corners in a similar mold as Julio Jones at 6'3"/195. Floyd is basically a lock to catch for 100 yards and a TD in every game he plays in and he gives the Domers a little balance on offense. Floyd will return for this game, and he is Jimmy Clausen's favorite target.
I really like Charlie Weis at coordinator with all of his toys at his disposal which he hasnt had yet - Jimmy Clausen at QB, Armando Allen at tailback and Michael Floyd at WR - and a very underrated Domer defense - vs. a poor Hawaii team - in a must win game for the Irish.
