Boxslayer's 2009 Bowl Season Plays and Writeups

[Boxslayer]

One final thing which made me keep this play small, which is the ineligiblity of a few FAU players, specifically on the O-line. Losing O-line chemistry is never a good thing, and plugging in new starters this late in the year prevented me from putting this play at 4 units, down to 2 units.

This is still a play though for me because it is easier to pass block then it is to run block. Run blocking is controlling the line of scrimmage, blowing and driving your man off the ball. Pass blocking is pushing a guy around a bit and slowing a defender just enough for the QB to release the ball.

If FAU was a running team, I'd be concerned that they are bringing in backups to try and blow starting d-linemen off the ball.

But I am not as concerned here.

Now if Central Michigan had an elite pass rush or brought confusing blitz packages, then I would again be worried, especially if the center was out who is the guy usually in charge of calling out blitz pickups and line audibles. But again, Central Michigan is not an elite pass rush D, and I don't think the O-line will play a huge role in this game. These guys on FAUs o-line need to hold their blocks just long enough to allow Rusty Smith to shred up this terrible Central Mich secondary that cant cover anyone.

So while I lowered the play from 4units to 2 units, I am not concerned.

 

[Mr.Cover123]

Do you like FAU TT over 14.5?

 

[Boxslayer]

3* North Carolina Tar Heels +2 -110

The Line: The ACC was an extremely underrated conference this year, and North Carolina is still a team that is widely thought of as a basketball school. Ever since Pat White and Steve Slaton stepped foot on campus and pulled the upset of Georgia in their bowl game a few years ago, West Virginia and their speedy QB and speedy tailback have been one of the public's favorite team. West Virginia is typically favored over a lot of teams because the public loves that Pat White. With Slaton gone, speedy gamebreaker Noel Devine has filled in to continue that 1-2 punch and look like an outstanding dynamic duo against average Big East competition. Lots of value here on UNC.

Motivation: This one is very easy. UNC's first bowl game in a very long time and Butch Davis is building a program up. Very similar to FAU last night vs. a perennial bowl team Central Michigan, North Carolina needs this win badly, and with this game staying in their home state of UNC, and the tremendous national following of UNC, I would expect a pretty good turnout of UNC fans for this game.

My Excel Sheet Line: West Virginia -4

Stat of the Game: UNC has three tailbacks with over 70 carries this year.

Trends of the Game: Mountaineers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 vs. ACC. Tar Heels are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. Tar Heels are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog.

Analysis: When Butch Davis was hired by the Tar Heels, I felt that UNC would be a force very soon. He's made strides very quickly, as UNC is a huge school with tremendous facilities, fan base, resources, athletic tradition, etc. Davis has started to nudge at the sleeping giant.

West Virginia has relied a lot on Pat White to return it's school to the national spotlight, but this game signifies the end of an era for the West Virginia program - and it may be a blessing in disguise. While Pat White is an electrifying playmaker at QB, he renders this West Virginia offense one dimensional, and good coaches - especially good defensive minded coaches - salivate over game planning for one dimensional offenses.

I love backing NFL defensive minded coaches like Butch Davis vs. gimmicky offenses like the one West Virginia employs. Get the images of Steve Slaton and Pat White running wild on Big East teams out of your head. This is a one dimensional offense, that has lost a lot more games over the years of the Pat White era than you would care to admit. This offense is predictable, with White only airing it our a dozen or so times per game.

Good coaches can stop this attack and Butch Davis is a very good coach. This UNC defense, although ranked 2nd to last in the ACC in total yards, is a bend but dont break defense. They held Georgia Tech and their option attack to 7 points - showing me that whole they may give up some yards, they can maintain their assignments and fill their gaps and stay disciplined which is what you need to do vs. WVU.

This West Virginia team does not surprise people the way they used to. They have scored 17 points or less in 5 of their 12 games. They hit the 40 point mark just once this season, vs. Villanova in week 1. Not very good offensive production.

West Virginia has been doing it a little different this year - just enough offense and a better defense. Their defense has been solid, but they have not played many offensive teams - Auburn, Rutgers, Syracuse, Marshall, Colorado, etc will make a lot of peoples defense look good.

This UNC team was an extremely dangerous team and offense as this year began with sophomore TJ Yates running the offense. He was out with a broken ankle and Cameron Sexton came in and did a fine job. But Yates is back, and Butch Davis feels he is back to pre-injury form. He has an all-american NFL WR to throw to in Hakeem Nicks, UNCs first ever 1,000 yard receiver, and that will be huge in this game as West Virginia's playmaking cornerback Hogan is out, as well as another vital piece to their secondary.

But forget all of that. Here is the key to this game: UNC's stable of running backs.

Every single West Virginia loss has a common theme: They turned it over, Pat White had a horrible day passing and the opposing team ran the ball 40+ times, wore down this defense and kept Pat White on the sidelines. The key to this game is NOT WVUs ability or inability to run the ball, although if they dont run the ball this game will get very ugly. WVU should get their yards on the ground. The key to this game is if UNC can force a few turnovers on Pat White, and if UNC pounds the rock on offense.

I hate betting on WVU because they are not a team that can come from behind at big decifits. They can come from behind 14 or less points, but if UNC jumps on top in this game, I dont like Pat White having to air it out. They are very limited on offense and the game has to play out just right.

They really have to play from ahead and that is tough for them to do because they have actually been outscored in first halves this year by opponents - something very rare in an 8 win football team.

Butch Davis has so much depth on this team, 2 QBs he can rotate in the game if someone is having a bad day to spark his offense, 3 running backs with 70+ carries to feed the ball to and wear down this WVU defense. Playmaking WRs. A #25 ranked turnover margin, a big key to defeating WVU.

WVU has won 3 straight bowl games and beaten some darn good teams like Oklahoma and Georgia in the process. But I really think those were the Super Bowl type games for WVU and this time around vs. UNC is a bit different. Not as exciting, not as big of a bowl, not as much to play for. Just personal pride of going out on a winning note, and that doesnt cut it. Butch Davis is on a mission and I think this one gets ugly.

UNC has had time to prepare for this team, time to get healthy and too much time for Butch Davis to put together a great strategy and get his boys ready for their first bowl game since 2001 I believe.

Too much depth for the Tar Heels, too much balance, better coaching, much better strength of schedule by a mile, too many quality wins, too much time to prepare....UNC will come out like a house on fire and run away.

Tar Heels 34
West Virginia 21

 

[cubsfn4ever]

Very nice writeup. I'll tail you on UNC and hope we have a winner. GL and thanks for all the effort you put in to your analysis.

 

[runandhide21]

Box

tough start here but I know you and i know your bowl picks throughout the past couple years and I am confident in a bounceback! thanks so much for ur help and have a happy new year!! good luck!

 

[Boxslayer]

Box

tough start here but I know you and i know your bowl picks throughout the past couple years and I am confident in a bounceback! thanks so much for ur help and have a happy new year!! good luck!

keep your money management fine, we'll survive the tough start and make big coin as it goes. tough breaks right now. it'll even out.

 

[ATLSLIM]

Good day, Mr.Boxslayer. My numbers have NC -4. Any points I get are a bonus!! I have them at +3 (-120) Let's collect on this one!!! Good luck!! ATLSLIM

 

[Boxslayer]

3* Wisconsin/Florida State under 51 -110

The Line: Line is easily 10 points too much for the total. Who is going to score in this game?

Motivation: FSU has a chance for their first 9-win season in 4 years. Game is in FL, and Bobby needs this bowl win to keep pace with JoePa. JoePa crushed this Wisky team at Camp Randall as well.

My Line: FSU -9

Trends: Under is 4-1 in Badgers last 5 Bowl games. Under is 10-4 in Badgers last 14 non-conference games. Trends for FSU totals point to over, but I think Wisky is the more experienced team and when they get out of conference they slow the game down and play Big Ten style.

Analysis: Neither offense has much of a QB, neither offense has much of an identity. The team with the most threat to score in this game, FSU, starts 3 underclassmen on the O-line vs. the senior-laden defensive line of Wisky. FSU would love to run the ball and keep the pressure off of Ponder, but if they dont control the trenches, they will sputter on offense as they have done plenty of times this year. Wisky, meanwhile is paper soft. If I am going to play a side, I would take FSU easily. Wisky is talking about how they have turned their season around....uhhh by beating Minnesota, Indiana and Cal Poly? Come on.

Neither of these teams is built to blow anyone out, and Wisky is so one dimensional on offense with the ground game FSU should be able to slow them. Everett is a stud on the D-line and he needs to be double teamed, freeing up the speedy FSU defense to make plays.

Ever see an ACC vs. FSU game on a Thursday night? Slugfests. That is what I expect here. Any time Wisky has faced a defense with a pulse they have struggled. FSU has a solid defense, and they can gear up to stop the run and Wisky wont abandon the run because their QB is garbage. So this clock will be a-tickin, and I dont see anyone a-scorin.

Neither QB can consistently move the ball, both defenses are strong enough in the trneches to slow the run. This should turn into a field position battle, and the team with the ball last should be grinding out clock.

Wisky scored 17 vs. OSU, 7 vs. PSU, and 16 vs. Iowa. That is the type of defense they will face today.

On paper, FSU is too good for Wisky. They are more talented, they are faster, they have more playmakers, they played in a tougher conference, they beat better teams, they lost to better teams, they were more consistent, they have the better coaching, they have the better QB, they have the homefield advantage, they have the motivation, they are oustanding on neutral turf, and Wisky is horrible away from Camp Randall. The heat is just perfect for Floridiainas, but for Wisconsin natives this should be a hot, humid day and wear down Wisky. Wisky's only chance in this game is to run PJ Hill into the ground and shorten this game up and slow it down. They have the size in the trenches defensively to stop the run and make this FSU offense sputter.

FSU 24
Wisconsin 16

 

[Mr.Cover123]

Good luck with the under box. I like Wisconsin TT under 23 better as I could see FSU putting up close to 30-35 today.

 

[ZJP6050]

boxer, how do you feel about the miami\cal over?

 

[Boxslayer]

Good luck with the under box. I like Wisconsin TT under 23 better as I could see FSU putting up close to 30-35 today.

A very young FSU O-line vs. a senior Wisky D-line, and NO PRESTON PARKER for the Noles. He is their gamebreaker, gamechanger, big play, bread and butter, get-me-the-1st-down kind of guy.

I like both teams under so I feel passing on FSU's addition to the total is passing on value.

GL.

 

[Boxslayer]

ADDING:

1 more unit (1*) FSU/WISKY UNDER 51 -110

4* Total play now.

 

[BORO]

Thanks for the play. I'm on it.

 

[benny0420]

On it as well.

 

[billbeater]

Lets cash it!

 

[leisure]

ADDING:

1 more unit (1*) FSU/WISKY UNDER 51 -110

4* Total play now.

Great call BOX.....

 

[Mr.Cover123]

Under and Wisconsin TT under in good shape so far.

 

[krk1030]

Should be a winner barring a bunch of OT's.

 

[Boxslayer]

2* TEASER EVEN $
1st Leg: Cal Golden Bears -4 -110
2nd Leg: Under 57

The Line: I really like Cal to win this game, and this line of 10 points is a tough one to lay here for good $. While I think Cal can run away with this game and win by 20+, never underestimate the power of the Canes when they are disrespected they way they have been in this game. I really can't see the Canes winning this game, this is really just too tall of a task for them, but I like this teaser in this particular case, and I will also lay 1 unit on Cal to cover the 10. A little unorthodox, but I like the plays. Line is begging for Miami $.

Motivation: Even. Miami is back in a bowl game and that is motivation for them, but with "the U" comes the mystique, the National Titles, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Michael Irvin, and I know for sure that Cal is excited to play these guys. An east coast/west coast kind of thing. I think both teams come out fired up to make a statement.

My Line from Excel Sheet: Cal -20

Trends: Tedford is 4-1 in bowl games. Hurricanes are 12-25-1 ATS in their last 38 games overall. Canes continue to get too much credit, and this line seems to be begging for Miami $.

Stat of the Game: In 5 games vs. top 30 rush defenses this year, the Canes offense averages 16 points per game. Cal's rush defense ranks #25.

Analysis: This is essentially a home game for Cal, as AT&T is 13 miles from the Berkeley campus. Miami gave away half of its allotment of tickets and they were sold to Cal fans. We saw how pumped up these Pac-10 folk get to beat these southeast teams (see Tennessee vs. UCLA, Tennessee vs. Cal, etc), especially a team like the U.

Even in the NFL with professional athletes, a west coast road trip can give the mighty Patriots a scare vs. the Seahawks. Or the Jets a loss. It is not easy to fly 3,000 miles and play in some elses backyard. But that is what the young Canes will have to do here.

Add in Jacory Harris, true freshman QB, and his 2nd start of the season as Robert Marve is suspended and transferring. Canes have 4 other suspensions, 2 of them are special teams guys and 1 of them is the long snapper. A lot of "noise in the system" for the Canes, plus a west coast road trip, playing a fired up Cal team and Miami starts a freshman QB.

Tedford has been the man since taking over a perennial doormat Cal program. 4-1 in bowls, he brings his boys to play and they will be ready here in full force, home crowd behind them, and 40 degree weather, something these South Beach Canes wont be too fond of.

Miami relies heavily on their ground game. Whenever they have faced a top 30 rush D this year, they have struggled to score points. And that will be the case again here as Miami will not ruin the psyche and confidence of their young future QB, and very reminiscient of the Gator game, this offense will go into a shell and protect Harris by playing a very conservative game plan.

Cal's defense is a bunch of ball hawks, and they have a major advantage in the turnover department in this game.

On offense, Cal is not what they used to be. They are not the offensive juggernaut from the Marshawn Lynch and DeSean Jackson days. But they hold their own. However, they have major QB issues this year, struggling with the Kevin Riley experiment and finally putting 5h year senior Nate Longshore in this game. Longshore is a sitting duck in the pocket with a shady O-Line vs. a very good young Miami defense that flies to the football. I forget the dudes name on the Canes O-Line maybe something like William Joseph? but he is an absolute stud on the D-Line in the mold of Vince Wilfork, and Warren Saap. LB Sean Spence is another stud, and this linebacking corps is very good in pursuit which should slow Jahvid Best, who has struggled vs. good defenses and goes off vs. the Washingtons, Stanfords and Wash States of the world.

Miami D Coordinator will bring blitz packages vs. the sitting duck Longshore and try to confuse him. But Longshore will have mixed success in this game, as he has plenty of experience and a few weapons to get the ball into the hands of.

On paper, and breaking this game down, it seems like another game where points will be hard to come by. I added under 57 to this teaser.

In the end, Cal's momentum will give them a few scores, homefield, experienced QB, head coaching advantage, EXPERIENCE, vs. Miamis youth cross country trip, and a MAJOR turnover advantage will allow Cal to pull away in this game slowly, but surely. This should be tight for awhile, but Cal has the coaching, homefield, experience and playmakers to get it done.

Cal 30
Miami 17

 

[krk1030]

How will you get screwed over on this next play?

I dont know how you do it. Brutal beats on like every play you make that have no business losing.