Boxslayer's 2009 Bowl Season Plays and Writeups

[Jbasile281]

"vs. a poor Hawaii team - in a must win game for the Irish. "



completely agree, a very poor and mismatched hawaii team. Notre Dame is much bigger and much more solid on defense. They'll pound the rock, and create a lot of turnovers. Enough said though, thanks for the analysis as it was much of what I saw from this game.<!-- / message -->

 

[Boxslayer]

He's a kicker, kicker's are mental. Once again, TCU has one of the worst kickers in college football right now. 17-26 (65.4 percent FG percentage as of 2008). could give a shit what award he won last year

The TCU game is over but I will comment on this. I think you were wrong about the kicker and it's okay to admit it. He was very good this year, and he did it as a freshman. Last night they showed his stats on TV (16/20 this year) and he was a semi finalist for the Groza award for nations best kicker. He just had a bad game vs. Utah, you saw the Utah game, probably didnt care to check his stats and said how he sucked. Which is fine. But here are his stats bud....

<table border="0"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#00008b"><td align="left" bgcolor="#00008b">FIELD GOALS </td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#00008b">Made-Att </td> <td align="right" bgcolor="#00008b">Pct </td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#00008b">01-19 </td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#00008b">20-29 </td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#00008b">30-39 </td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#00008b">40-49 </td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#00008b">50-99 </td> <td align="right" bgcolor="#00008b">Long </td> <td align="right" bgcolor="#00008b">Blkd </td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="left">Evans, Ross </td> <td align="center">16-20 </td> <td align="right">80.0 </td> <td align="center">1-1 </td> <td align="center">6-8 </td> <td align="center">6-7 </td> <td align="center">2-3 </td> <td align="center">1-1 </td> <td align="center">50 </td> <td align="center">0 </td></tr></tbody></table>

After last nights made attempt, he is now 17 for 21 on the year. Pretty damn good for college. If he would have nailed those kicks for Utah, he probably would have been a finalist and had a chance to win the damn thing. Let's move on though shall we?

 

[Boxslayer]

"vs. a poor Hawaii team - in a must win game for the Irish. "



completely agree, a very poor and mismatched hawaii team. Notre Dame is much bigger and much more solid on defense. They'll pound the rock, and create a lot of turnovers. Enough said though, thanks for the analysis as it was much of what I saw from this game.<!-- / message -->

You got it.

 

[Jbasile281]

caught me there, i was looking at Kyle Brotzman for some reason. Good call men, good call. he just made me dispise him after that cover with Utah. Nevertheless, I guess I didn't trust him on a big stage.

 

[Railbird]

I wouldnt call Jimmy Clausen a toy or a weapon. He is a turnover machine, and had 2 stars too many coming out of high school. Alexander is the better qb in this game. Game is a pass for me.

 

[oatmealpancakes]

I wouldnt call Jimmy Clausen a toy or a weapon. He is a turnover machine, and had 2 stars too many coming out of high school. Alexander is the better qb in this game. Game is a pass for me.

Don't tell this to Tom Lemming. Tommy boy said Jimmy was the "LeBron James of high school football".

:missingte

 

[fugazi]

Maybe it was 4:44am. But this post makes no sense.

And just because I get backdoored a couple games, does NOT mean you start changing the way you handicap games. It's like playing poker and having pocket Kings vs. Jacks and a Jack comes on the river, and now all of the sudden I change the way I play poker.

I also don't need to be told how to cap bowl season, especially if it involves hancdicapping games for hours, putting together a logical analysis and then going the complete opposite, just bc it's bowl season.

I just don't understand the post.

If you want to talk about why Hawaii is going to cover instead of Notre Dame, I am all ears. I am not a nazi. But I'd like to hear some reasoning regarding the football game.

His point of a backdoor cover by a TD makes no sense either as you predicted a score of 31-21 ND and a late TD makes the score 31-28 ND, which still covers as it is ND -2.

Box, you got any feelings on the total of the game? 49 seems doable but I'm not sure if ND is going to come out and just run, run, run or open it up with some big passing plays. Both teams can score so we'll see, leaning towards over but not overly confident in it either.

 

[Boxslayer]

I wouldnt call Jimmy Clausen a toy or a weapon. He is a turnover machine, and had 2 stars too many coming out of high school. Alexander is the better qb in this game. Game is a pass for me.

If I had to rate Hawaii as a team, they would be a 2* team. A 3* Jimmy Clausen will be just fine in this game. Hawaii is putrid.

 

[Boxslayer]

His point of a backdoor cover by a TD makes no sense either as you predicted a score of 31-21 ND and a late TD makes the score 31-28 ND, which still covers as it is ND -2.

Box, you got any feelings on the total of the game? 49 seems doable but I'm not sure if ND is going to come out and just run, run, run or open it up with some big passing plays. Both teams can score so we'll see, leaning towards over but not overly confident in it either.

fugazi,

My response to that would be what makes you think Hawaii can score?

Outside of games against New Mexico State and Idaho (which would normally be 60 point outputs for any June Jones coached team in the past), Hawaii hit the 30 point barrier only 3 times this year. So in 8 of their 13 games (the majority of their games) Hawaii scored 24 points or less in a horrific conference that plays absolutely no defense.

Notre Dame has given up 24 points or less at the end of regulation in 10 of their 12 games.

So in the majority of Hawaii's games they scored 24 points or less, and the majority of Notre Dames games they gave up 24 points or less.

ND will be one of the top 3 or 4 defense Hawaii will face this year, I see Hawaii scoring 17-24 points here MAX.

With the line at -2, bookmakers expect a close game. I personally think Notre Dame wins by 10. Assuming Hawaii scores their potential max of 24, bookmakers expect Notre Dame to score 26, which puts the total at 50 MAX.

With the total at 49, this looks like an under play all the way - unless you think one of these two teams is just going to go off on the scoreboard. I don't see that here.

In fact, I think I just convinced myself to play the under. LOL.

But seriously, I really don't think the over has any value. The value seems to lie with the under, and considering how public of a team Notre Dame is, and how popular and typically square it is to play overs, and how people see the name Hawaii and immediately think 40 points on the scoreboard, I would say the sharp play here would be the under if anything.

 

[Mr.Cover123]

Michael Floyd should be a big boost to ND offense as when he got hurt Clausen was a turnover machine. Still this is the same team that lost to Syracuse at home one of the worst teams in the nation IMO.

I know you saw Hawaii vs. Florida, but Florida makes everybody look horrible and since Alexander has taken over at QB their offense has been better.

I lean to ND, but this is a complete toss up.

 

[bigtendominator]

Which one of the following offenses was going to pile stats up against ND's D?

Here is a ranking of the pass offenses ND has faced:

SDSU -39
Michigan -108
Michigan State -59
Purdue -28
Stanford-103
North Carolina-83
Washington-100
Pittsburgh-60
Boston College-93
Navy -118
Syracuse-113
Southern California-31

Not exactly the big 12 when it comes to passing. ND played 5 times that rank worse than 100th in the pass game

 

[leisure]

Box - I am just being a devils advocate here but why is no one talking about the Cincy game? Hawaii was up 24-10 mid 4th qtr and it took a pick 6, a saftey and a late bomb to beat them...

Cincy is the #12 team in the country according to the AP poll.

 

[woodypaige]

Merry Christmas Buddy!!:toast:

 

[Mr.Cover123]

Box - I am just being a devils advocate here but why is no one talking about the Cincy game? Hawaii was up 24-10 mid 4th qtr and it took a pick 6, a saftey and a late bomb to beat them...

Cincy is the #12 team in the country according to the AP poll.

Cincy already clinched the Big East and had nothing to play for as that was pretty much an early vacation for them.

Everybody expects ND to be motivated to a win bowl game, but they usually hurts a team like ask the Jets and Eagles.

 

[bigtendominator]

Cincy already clinched the Big East and had nothing to play for as that was pretty much an early vacation for them.

Everybody expects ND to be motivated to a win bowl game, but they usually hurts a team like ask the Jets and Eagles.

I agree with this theory in the NFL, but I just have never felt that away about teams ranked in CFB. Unranked and not going to a bowl or a team expecting to play for a conference or National title will sometimes fold after a couple of losses. Kelly is no nonsense guy and I think Cincy didn't play well.

 

[Teddykgb]

You are a dumb fuck...why come to his thread and talk shit???

you forgot to call him a hater who hates. real popular phrase going around here.

GL Im on the rainbows errrr warriors

 

[Jbasile281]

One last thing, I'm just going to say there is wayyyyy to much hype about this game. Come on guys, really Hawaii? I think even with Colt Brennan last year I would till take Notre Dame in this situation. Honestly, I know there have been predictions of a 10 point game, but the only reason that this game is going to be a 10 point game is if Hawaii scores late from being down 17 to make it 10. Let's be serious, not trying to hate on everyone that is on Hawaii, but seriously, come on. I have started out this season 5-0 with bowl games, I laid off of south florida. Maybe it is luck, maybe you guys don't even believe it, but to like Hawaii in this situation I just think is absolutely absurd and Notre Dame will roll tonight and it probably will remind me much of that Washington/Notre Dame game that was somewhat close but completely one sided. Keep in mind, I don't think much of this Notre Dame team at all, but to compare them to Hawaii is.... i dont even know.hno:

 

[Mr.Cover123]

One last thing, I'm just going to say there is wayyyyy to much hype about this game. Come on guys, really Hawaii? I think even with Colt Brennan last year I would till take Notre Dame in this situation. Honestly, I know there have been predictions of a 10 point game, but the only reason that this game is going to be a 10 point game is if Hawaii scores late from being down 17 to make it 10. Let's be serious, not trying to hate on everyone that is on Hawaii, but seriously, come on. I have started out this season 5-0 with bowl games, I laid off of south florida. Maybe it is luck, maybe you guys don't even believe it, but to like Hawaii in this situation I just think is absolutely absurd and Notre Dame will roll tonight and it probably will remind me much of that Washington/Notre Dame game that was somewhat close but completely one sided. Keep in mind, I don't think much of this Notre Dame team at all, but to compare them to Hawaii is.... i dont even know.hno:

Is Syracuse better than Hawaii?

 

[Jbasile281]

Is Syracuse better than Hawaii?

to answer that I'm simply going to say, yes. Cuse came on strong late in the season and was playing much better while Notre Dame was at the point where they obviously could afford a loss(they're still in a bowl game) Don't forget the first half of the season, and the time to prepare they have had. This team is much bigger, much stronger. If Clausen throws 5 times tonight, they'll still win. This defense is going to dominate the game and cause a lot of turnovers. Criticize my analysis, everyone is looking at the cincy/hawaii game and the cuse/notre dame game wayyy to much. If you critique the two teams, as box did very well you'll see the answer. Take my advice and trust my man Boxslayer here. Argue all you want, after the game I'll be around I'm willing to take every hating comment you can give me. If its a winner, come in here and thank Box. Talk to ya later.

 

[Mr.Cover123]

No way is Syracuse better than Hawaii and ND should have lost to San Diego St.

If ND is so good then why have lost 6 straight bowl games and finished 6-6. Stop believing in the hype they suck.