Let's pray!! I think everyone who didn't take USC 1st half is trying to make up for it in the 2nd half!! And that is never good! I cashed in small for the 1st half. Lost the 1st quarter on some bullsh*t. Then I cashed huge 2nd quarter! I hope they keep firing away. But if that happens Vegas is in for an ass kickin like no other.
rough day yeserday..
i really believe penn st was the right side and they cover the 10 number 7 out of 10 times. some crazy shit had to happen in the 2nd Q for this to happen. I was not too happy that they couldn't get the ball in the end zone for the cover at the end, but whatever....
the cinncy game was frustrating to watch because you could see the potential of the bearcats, but they did not execute in key situations. I love tony pike's game, but he was clearly forcing it and was a bit flustered.
all of this on top of the clemson collapse, made for a rough day. cullen harper must be retarded to take a 15 yard sack of 2nd and goal from the 9. throw it away son, you ain't pat white!
i really believe penn st was the right side and they cover the 10 number 7 out of 10 times. some crazy shit had to happen in the 2nd Q for this to happen. I was not too happy that they couldn't get the ball in the end zone for the cover at the end, but whatever....
the cinncy game was frustrating to watch because you could see the potential of the bearcats, but they did not execute in key situations. I love tony pike's game, but he was clearly forcing it and was a bit flustered.
all of this on top of the clemson collapse, made for a rough day. cullen harper must be retarded to take a 15 yard sack of 2nd and goal from the 9. throw it away son, you ain't pat white!
Pandaburr, may have to disagree with you on Pike and the BearCats. From watching the game, they were clearly mismatched with VT. They tried to force too much when they were in the red zone. The O-line was not there to protect Pike, he was scrambling about 1 in every 3 plays.
Pretty much the VT Defense was better than any D the Bearcats have ever come across. They were completely FLAT after the first 5 minutes in the 1st quarter.
Pretty much the VT Defense was better than any D the Bearcats have ever come across. They were completely FLAT after the first 5 minutes in the 1st quarter.
Rough ending to the day yesterday, as I lost my first BCS game wager in 3 years. When it rains it pours and Cincy came out on fire, and then shut it down. No excuses for yesterday, those are just good old fashioned wrong side bets. 11-2 now past 3 years on BCS and Title Game wagers. Been capping the Ole Miss Tech game for awhile now, and will be keeping the bets a bit larger from here on out.
For those who are still figuring things out:
1-2* in bowl season for me is small.
3-4* is solid average
5*-7* is a good solid, strong play
8*-15* are bets that you look for a couple times per year.
I realize 7* was one of, if not the biggest wager to date, but that doesnt mean it is a guaranteed winner and you should unload your account.
If you arent comfortable with my unit sizes, just divide by 2 for a safer bet.
If you are looking for plays to unload your account on, you are in the wrong place.
I always say my unit sizes are usually in direct proportion to the amount of my bankroll I am risking. That is why the majority of my plays this season were 2* out of a 100* bankroll. A 7* bet for me is a pretty large wager, 7% of my bankroll. I have $6,000 spread across 6 different books. So last nights wager on Cincy was a $560 bet. I basically bet $100 at each book where it had the line I posted.
If I have a 15* game, that should be 15% of your bankroll, not 50% or 100%. Even 15% is a very large wager by money management standards.
Yesterday hurts and sucks, but if you are using sound money management, it shouldn't even be a dent. I am confident in my ability to cap BCS Games when given ample time, which I have had. Sometimes, just on the wrong end of it - hence the term sports gambling.
Everything is a percentages game in gambling. 60% capping is unbelievable, and I have been around that mark most of the year. I look to invest more money where more percentages are in my favor, but I, or anyone but the mafia, is ever in a situation where we have 100% in our favor.
Back to the games today!
For those who are still figuring things out:
1-2* in bowl season for me is small.
3-4* is solid average
5*-7* is a good solid, strong play
8*-15* are bets that you look for a couple times per year.
I realize 7* was one of, if not the biggest wager to date, but that doesnt mean it is a guaranteed winner and you should unload your account.
If you arent comfortable with my unit sizes, just divide by 2 for a safer bet.
If you are looking for plays to unload your account on, you are in the wrong place.
I always say my unit sizes are usually in direct proportion to the amount of my bankroll I am risking. That is why the majority of my plays this season were 2* out of a 100* bankroll. A 7* bet for me is a pretty large wager, 7% of my bankroll. I have $6,000 spread across 6 different books. So last nights wager on Cincy was a $560 bet. I basically bet $100 at each book where it had the line I posted.
If I have a 15* game, that should be 15% of your bankroll, not 50% or 100%. Even 15% is a very large wager by money management standards.
Yesterday hurts and sucks, but if you are using sound money management, it shouldn't even be a dent. I am confident in my ability to cap BCS Games when given ample time, which I have had. Sometimes, just on the wrong end of it - hence the term sports gambling.
Everything is a percentages game in gambling. 60% capping is unbelievable, and I have been around that mark most of the year. I look to invest more money where more percentages are in my favor, but I, or anyone but the mafia, is ever in a situation where we have 100% in our favor.
Back to the games today!
5* Ole Miss Rebels +4 -110
Perception is reality, except for when it comes to sports betting. The perception is Florida, then Alabama then a huge drop off in the SEC. The perception is Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech....flip a coin. Not so fast, my friend.
Ole Miss was easily a top 3 team in the SEC this year, supporting the argument that the SEC top to bottom is annually one of the strongest conferences in college football. There are no doormats. Vanderbilt rose to the top to defeat ACC Champ BC. And Ole Miss rose to the top to defeat a title bound Gators team in Gainesville. Last year it was Arkansas, and Kentucky. The idea behind this is not to look at Ole Miss by their logo and tradition.
Ole Miss started the season okay, as coach Nutt installed his new system. Most of their losses came early in the year, and this team improved drastically as the season played out. They predictably lost to Steve Spurrier after their huge win over Florida in the Swamp, and Bama on deck. That sandwich game caught this team. When they played Bama, they outgained the Tide and matched up well, but came up short in Tuscaloosa. The Rebels performed well on the road, something you look for in a bowl team, by beating UF, and LSU in their respective stadiums and probably should have beat Bama as well. Rebels then ran the table the rest of the year, highlighted by a strong win over LSU in Death Valley, scored 31 or more points over their final 3 games, while their defense gave up 20 total points and 2 shut outs over their final 4 games.
Texas Tech, meanwhile, regressed. The more they were tested, the more they struggled, topping it off with a blowout loss in Norman and the inability to overcome that loss and a squeek by Baylor. The majority of Tech's wins were against powerhouses like Eastern Wash, Nevada, Southern Methodist, Kansas State, Tex A+M, and Baylor. Against 2 defenses with a pulse, Oklahoma and Texas they put up 21 and 39 respectively. Ole Miss has more than a pulse, and what they specialize in is beating you up front. They do it with their 2 future first round and 3rd round NFL draft choices, which lead them to the #5 team in the country in sacking the QB and #1 in tackles for a loss - exactly what you need to slow a spread attack down and keep Graham Harrell from sitting in the pocket.
This would be a 10* play, but a few factors keep this play solid, instead of a game of the year type: Texas Tech may want to make a statement for being left out of the title game, and Mike Leachs bowl record vs. Houston Nutt's bowl record.
Bottom line though is neither of those two factors have a direct effect on this game, just like Techs 0-3 record in the Cotton Bowl has little effect on this game.
This game will come down to Tech's ability to operate vs. a good defense, and Tech's defenses ability to stop a very physical Ole Miss offense.
This is the classic battle between PHYSICAL vs. FINESSE, and you always take the physical team in these spots.
My Line, Ole Miss -13.
Ole Miss 38
Texas Tech 25
Perception is reality, except for when it comes to sports betting. The perception is Florida, then Alabama then a huge drop off in the SEC. The perception is Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech....flip a coin. Not so fast, my friend.
Ole Miss was easily a top 3 team in the SEC this year, supporting the argument that the SEC top to bottom is annually one of the strongest conferences in college football. There are no doormats. Vanderbilt rose to the top to defeat ACC Champ BC. And Ole Miss rose to the top to defeat a title bound Gators team in Gainesville. Last year it was Arkansas, and Kentucky. The idea behind this is not to look at Ole Miss by their logo and tradition.
Ole Miss started the season okay, as coach Nutt installed his new system. Most of their losses came early in the year, and this team improved drastically as the season played out. They predictably lost to Steve Spurrier after their huge win over Florida in the Swamp, and Bama on deck. That sandwich game caught this team. When they played Bama, they outgained the Tide and matched up well, but came up short in Tuscaloosa. The Rebels performed well on the road, something you look for in a bowl team, by beating UF, and LSU in their respective stadiums and probably should have beat Bama as well. Rebels then ran the table the rest of the year, highlighted by a strong win over LSU in Death Valley, scored 31 or more points over their final 3 games, while their defense gave up 20 total points and 2 shut outs over their final 4 games.
Texas Tech, meanwhile, regressed. The more they were tested, the more they struggled, topping it off with a blowout loss in Norman and the inability to overcome that loss and a squeek by Baylor. The majority of Tech's wins were against powerhouses like Eastern Wash, Nevada, Southern Methodist, Kansas State, Tex A+M, and Baylor. Against 2 defenses with a pulse, Oklahoma and Texas they put up 21 and 39 respectively. Ole Miss has more than a pulse, and what they specialize in is beating you up front. They do it with their 2 future first round and 3rd round NFL draft choices, which lead them to the #5 team in the country in sacking the QB and #1 in tackles for a loss - exactly what you need to slow a spread attack down and keep Graham Harrell from sitting in the pocket.
This would be a 10* play, but a few factors keep this play solid, instead of a game of the year type: Texas Tech may want to make a statement for being left out of the title game, and Mike Leachs bowl record vs. Houston Nutt's bowl record.
Bottom line though is neither of those two factors have a direct effect on this game, just like Techs 0-3 record in the Cotton Bowl has little effect on this game.
This game will come down to Tech's ability to operate vs. a good defense, and Tech's defenses ability to stop a very physical Ole Miss offense.
This is the classic battle between PHYSICAL vs. FINESSE, and you always take the physical team in these spots.
My Line, Ole Miss -13.
Ole Miss 38
Texas Tech 25
Yes it is.
But I was doing that math to prove a point. I don't have EXACTLY $6,000K perfectly on the nose spread across the books. I do $75 units -so I did the math a little differently based on how my bets went last night. So $75 times a 7 unit play is about $525 + juice comes out to roughly $560 was my point - which was about what I spent last night because of the juice variations across books.
