3* Clemson Tigers -1 -110
I think everyone has been aware that Clemson is one of the more talented teams in the country. And if they found the right coach, they could be dangerous. I'm not sure if they have found the right coach in Dabo just yet, but I do like the new, sexy appeal that he brings to the team. The fresh philosophies, the fresh blood, the fresh ideas. I think he has this team beleiving in him in right now.
I thought Clemson played some of the better football down the stretch than almost any team in the country. Since Dabo officially took over, the Tigers have gone 4-2. I will actually give them a mulligan on the first game of his coaching career, a 21-17 loss to GA Tech, in which Bowden was let go and Dabo had one week to get his guys on the same page despite all of the distractions to face a triple option team.
Since that 1 game buffer, Clemson is 4-1, their only loss on the road to FSU. They have beaten BC, Duke, Virginia and South Carolina. Carolina is a huge rival, and they are in a bowl game today. BC was an ACC division champ, and played in a bowl game yesterday. So a couple of quality wins there in my eyes vs. good defenses.
Clemson down the stretch had a very consistent offense and their defense was outstanding. Since the Tech game, Clemson put up 27-31 points in 4 out of 5 games. In their final 3 games of the season, Clemsons defense held opponents to 14 points or less.
In fact, Clemsons defense is one of the best in the country - and that will be the seperator in this game. Not only is this a #9 scoring defense giving up just 16 points per game, they are very good at stopping the run AND the pass. The #10 pass defense and #9 pass efficiency defense is the best Nebraska QB Joe Ganz has faced all year. Don't get me wrong, Clemsons defense isnt world beaters, but I think just a bit of consistent D in this game will slow the Huskers attack. Nebraska plays no defense whatsoever, despite Pellini's background as a D-coordinator, and Clemson's ground attack of Spiller and Davis should have a very strong game.
The way you slow a good offense, is to throw a little defense at them, get them frustrated and watch them self destruct. We always had a clue that the Big 12 teams didnt play any defense, but with each passing bowl game, we get a better feel for that. I have said this all year, but every single QB that the Big 12 fields is some kind of a Heisman candidate. This is not a video game. Bradford, McCoy, Reesing, Daniel, the list goes on and on. Now here comes Joe Ganz, yet another Big 12 QB throwing for 3,000 yards a million touchdowns and no interceptions. I just don't buy it.
Nebraska has 1 quality win on the year, a 45-35 win over Kansas in Nebraska. They got run off the field by Mizzou, who put up 52 on them. Run off the field by Oklahoma who put up 60+ on them. And even threw in a loss to an ACC team like Virginia Tech for good measure. In fact, Cornhuskers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
While Clemson has a similar non-conference record that is because they play good SEC Teams like Alabama and South Carolina, and the Huskers play Western Michigan and Va Tech. And the obvious fact that most Clemson stats and trends are under Tommy Bowden, and this has been a completely different team since he left.
Nebraska down the strwetch was scoring points like a pinball machine. 45, 56 and 40 point outputs in their final 3 games. But you HAVE to disregard the points that this team put up. The defenses they faced, such as #97 ranked Kansas, #117 ranked Kansas State and #89 ranked Colorado, are not even close to what they will face today vs. Clemson.
A more indicative point output is the 21 point surge in the 4th quarter to barely get 30 points vs. a horrible Texas Tech defense. The 28 they put up vs. a slightly above average Oklahoma defense. And the 17 they put up vs. a horrible Mizzou defense. My point is don't be scared of this Nebraska offense. Clemson has speed and playmakers on their side of the ball and they are very good at defending the pass - the key to this Nebraska offense.
I also love the fact that this game is in Jacksonville, just a little road trip for Clemson, while Nebraska comes to the east coast and changes time zones. We have seen teams with regional home field advantages thrive in bowl season, and I dont think that changes here today.
This Clemson team will be VERY motivated today to win this game now that Dabo has been named head coach. They dont have a lame duck, they need to come out and impress in this bowl game to head into next year with roster spots, and Dabo wants to show the world that he can win big games and Clemson made the right decision to bring him on board and remove the interim head coach label.
Give me the more physical team, that can run the ball, with the better defense, motivation and regional home field advantage vs. the team with very few quality wins and overinflated offensive numbers.
My Line, Clemson -11.
Clemson 31
Nebraska 20
I think everyone has been aware that Clemson is one of the more talented teams in the country. And if they found the right coach, they could be dangerous. I'm not sure if they have found the right coach in Dabo just yet, but I do like the new, sexy appeal that he brings to the team. The fresh philosophies, the fresh blood, the fresh ideas. I think he has this team beleiving in him in right now.
I thought Clemson played some of the better football down the stretch than almost any team in the country. Since Dabo officially took over, the Tigers have gone 4-2. I will actually give them a mulligan on the first game of his coaching career, a 21-17 loss to GA Tech, in which Bowden was let go and Dabo had one week to get his guys on the same page despite all of the distractions to face a triple option team.
Since that 1 game buffer, Clemson is 4-1, their only loss on the road to FSU. They have beaten BC, Duke, Virginia and South Carolina. Carolina is a huge rival, and they are in a bowl game today. BC was an ACC division champ, and played in a bowl game yesterday. So a couple of quality wins there in my eyes vs. good defenses.
Clemson down the stretch had a very consistent offense and their defense was outstanding. Since the Tech game, Clemson put up 27-31 points in 4 out of 5 games. In their final 3 games of the season, Clemsons defense held opponents to 14 points or less.
In fact, Clemsons defense is one of the best in the country - and that will be the seperator in this game. Not only is this a #9 scoring defense giving up just 16 points per game, they are very good at stopping the run AND the pass. The #10 pass defense and #9 pass efficiency defense is the best Nebraska QB Joe Ganz has faced all year. Don't get me wrong, Clemsons defense isnt world beaters, but I think just a bit of consistent D in this game will slow the Huskers attack. Nebraska plays no defense whatsoever, despite Pellini's background as a D-coordinator, and Clemson's ground attack of Spiller and Davis should have a very strong game.
The way you slow a good offense, is to throw a little defense at them, get them frustrated and watch them self destruct. We always had a clue that the Big 12 teams didnt play any defense, but with each passing bowl game, we get a better feel for that. I have said this all year, but every single QB that the Big 12 fields is some kind of a Heisman candidate. This is not a video game. Bradford, McCoy, Reesing, Daniel, the list goes on and on. Now here comes Joe Ganz, yet another Big 12 QB throwing for 3,000 yards a million touchdowns and no interceptions. I just don't buy it.
Nebraska has 1 quality win on the year, a 45-35 win over Kansas in Nebraska. They got run off the field by Mizzou, who put up 52 on them. Run off the field by Oklahoma who put up 60+ on them. And even threw in a loss to an ACC team like Virginia Tech for good measure. In fact, Cornhuskers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
While Clemson has a similar non-conference record that is because they play good SEC Teams like Alabama and South Carolina, and the Huskers play Western Michigan and Va Tech. And the obvious fact that most Clemson stats and trends are under Tommy Bowden, and this has been a completely different team since he left.
Nebraska down the strwetch was scoring points like a pinball machine. 45, 56 and 40 point outputs in their final 3 games. But you HAVE to disregard the points that this team put up. The defenses they faced, such as #97 ranked Kansas, #117 ranked Kansas State and #89 ranked Colorado, are not even close to what they will face today vs. Clemson.
A more indicative point output is the 21 point surge in the 4th quarter to barely get 30 points vs. a horrible Texas Tech defense. The 28 they put up vs. a slightly above average Oklahoma defense. And the 17 they put up vs. a horrible Mizzou defense. My point is don't be scared of this Nebraska offense. Clemson has speed and playmakers on their side of the ball and they are very good at defending the pass - the key to this Nebraska offense.
I also love the fact that this game is in Jacksonville, just a little road trip for Clemson, while Nebraska comes to the east coast and changes time zones. We have seen teams with regional home field advantages thrive in bowl season, and I dont think that changes here today.
This Clemson team will be VERY motivated today to win this game now that Dabo has been named head coach. They dont have a lame duck, they need to come out and impress in this bowl game to head into next year with roster spots, and Dabo wants to show the world that he can win big games and Clemson made the right decision to bring him on board and remove the interim head coach label.
Give me the more physical team, that can run the ball, with the better defense, motivation and regional home field advantage vs. the team with very few quality wins and overinflated offensive numbers.
My Line, Clemson -11.
Clemson 31
Nebraska 20
1* Teaser 7 points
1st Leg: Georgia -2.5
2nd Leg: Under 64
I'm 2-0 so far on these types of teasers, and I found this game to be one of the most difficult to cap. My Line says Georgia -24, but I don't buy it. They havent blown any teams out like that, and it's hard for me to lay the 9.5 here.
However, you look at the other sdie and Mich State has been blown out by teams with better athletes like Penn State and Ohio State.
I really like Georgia to win this game but by how much is a tough call. So I will tease this down here.
Georgia is a team that had a bullseye on their back all season. Then they had injuries pile up. Then they went through a pretty tough schedule with everyone gunning for them. They just werent good enough. If any team will benefit from this time off before a bowl game I think it is Georgia. These guys needed a chance to relax and regroup and focus on one game. Both teams are fighting for 10-win seasons. Moreno and Stafford are trying to put on a show before they get drafted. Georgia with athletic, regional, QB, and coach advantages in this game.
However, the Big Ten is undefeated in this bowl game vs. the SEC.
A little wind in Orlando, a very one dimensional offense for Mich State that relies on Ringer, their QB is horrible. 0 touchdowns and 4 picks over the last 3 games I believe.
This should be the Knowshown and Ringer show. Clock should be moving and I expect a relatively low scoring affair - probably better to word this as I dont expect either team to go off on the scoreboard as both should run the ball early and often. The difference in this game is Georgia's ability to pass the ball, compared to Mich State. Both teams have pretty good defenses.
Mich State showed difficulty scoring vs. some of the better defenses they have faced.
Georgia 34
Mich State 20
1st Leg: Georgia -2.5
2nd Leg: Under 64
I'm 2-0 so far on these types of teasers, and I found this game to be one of the most difficult to cap. My Line says Georgia -24, but I don't buy it. They havent blown any teams out like that, and it's hard for me to lay the 9.5 here.
However, you look at the other sdie and Mich State has been blown out by teams with better athletes like Penn State and Ohio State.
I really like Georgia to win this game but by how much is a tough call. So I will tease this down here.
Georgia is a team that had a bullseye on their back all season. Then they had injuries pile up. Then they went through a pretty tough schedule with everyone gunning for them. They just werent good enough. If any team will benefit from this time off before a bowl game I think it is Georgia. These guys needed a chance to relax and regroup and focus on one game. Both teams are fighting for 10-win seasons. Moreno and Stafford are trying to put on a show before they get drafted. Georgia with athletic, regional, QB, and coach advantages in this game.
However, the Big Ten is undefeated in this bowl game vs. the SEC.
A little wind in Orlando, a very one dimensional offense for Mich State that relies on Ringer, their QB is horrible. 0 touchdowns and 4 picks over the last 3 games I believe.
This should be the Knowshown and Ringer show. Clock should be moving and I expect a relatively low scoring affair - probably better to word this as I dont expect either team to go off on the scoreboard as both should run the ball early and often. The difference in this game is Georgia's ability to pass the ball, compared to Mich State. Both teams have pretty good defenses.
Mich State showed difficulty scoring vs. some of the better defenses they have faced.
Georgia 34
Mich State 20
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Quick update of the bowl record:
Currently: 10-6, +5.70, 63%
Having an okay bowl season, it would obviously be a great start to the season if FSU Under came through and Wake didnt break that fluke TD to ruin the push, it would look something like:
11-4, +16.10, 73%
So, having a better season than the numbers indicate, but all that matters is the final $ amount.
Looks like I'm gonna have a big play on the BCS Games later. I usually like to make good investments on those games. I have gone 10-0 the last two years on BCS Bowls and Title Games - so I am going to load up a bit over these last few plays.
Been capping these USC/Penn State and Cincy/Va Tech games for the past few hours.
Up later.
Currently: 10-6, +5.70, 63%
Having an okay bowl season, it would obviously be a great start to the season if FSU Under came through and Wake didnt break that fluke TD to ruin the push, it would look something like:
11-4, +16.10, 73%
So, having a better season than the numbers indicate, but all that matters is the final $ amount.
Looks like I'm gonna have a big play on the BCS Games later. I usually like to make good investments on those games. I have gone 10-0 the last two years on BCS Bowls and Title Games - so I am going to load up a bit over these last few plays.
Been capping these USC/Penn State and Cincy/Va Tech games for the past few hours.
Up later.
hno:
3* Penn State Nittany Lions 1st Half +6 -105
3* Penn State Nittany Lions +10 -110
The Line: Tremendous value on the JoePa's after the Big Ten has been exposed and crushed over the past few years in bowl games, especially by this same USC program. It seems like you could just pop the old tapes in of USC vs. Michigan, or USC vs. Ohio State and watch the same thing that will happen tonight. And that's where you would be making a huge mistake. Penn State is 1-point, 1 missed FG away from being undefeated and playing for the National Title. They played a huge road game at Ohio State, got a huge win, and then in a let down spot played a VERY solid Iowa team and lost by a point at Iowa. Tough stretch for many to overcome. They should not be double digit underdogs to anyone, especially a team like USC who plays a defensive style game. This is just too many points, and I think a lot of it stems from the Ohio State USC match earlier this year. Then people saw Ohio State play a tight one vs. Penn State. So they figure USC should also blow out Penn State. Wouldnt it be nice if everything worked out all nice and comfy like that in sports betting. We would all be rich. Unfortunately thats not the way things work. That game earlier this season was between Ohio State and USC. Not Penn State and USC. Ohio State started Boeckman that game and had no Beanie Wells, and it snowballed out of control. Ohio State is a completely different team now, and when Penn State played them it was at The Shoe with a seasoned Pryor, and a healthy Beanie Wells. Not like USC's case with a limited Pryor, no Beanie Wells in California.
Motivation: Penn State. USC is making their upteenth straight Rose Bowl appearance, falling just a hair short of the National Title game once again. This team has to get sick and tired of these games vs. Big Ten teams and not playing for all of the marbles. Penn State comes in anxious to rid the Big Ten of their reputation and restore the conference to prominence. HUGE recruiting tool for Penn State and win here vs. USC puts them on the same level and same conversation with the USCs, Texas, Floridas again. And with JoePa's time running low, what a great signature win, in what has been a magical season for Penn State that has seemed destined from Day 1 to end in a big bowl win for the Nittany Lions. Penn State is fired up to be here, and while USC is happy, they arent thrilled. I think Penn State comes out with a lot of emotion and intensity in this game, especially early.
Trends: We all know USC is outstanding vs. the Big Ten and out of conference. But what about Penn State? PSU is 8-4 since 1993 in bowl games and 9-3 straight up. PSU is 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS since 1993 vs. the Pac 10. 13-1 SU and 10-2 ATS vs. non conference opponents in the last 3 seasons. That INCLUDES their blowout win over the same Oregon State team that manhandled USC.
My Line: USC -3
Analysis: The USC Trojans are THE program of the decade, easily. And with that distinction, comes inflated lines. This line is no different. USC is 6-6 ATS this year, and I'm sure many people thought they'd cover almost any line that was thrown at them. The simple principle of the matter that USC is 6-6 ATS and Penn State was 7-3 ATS shows that USC got too much respect and Penn State got too little.
When you think USC Trojans, you typically think Offense. You think Matt Leinart, Carson Palmer and Reggie Bush. But those days are long gone for the Trojans and that is why they will not cover this spread. They are left with an under performing, underachieving offense led by Mark Sanchez, who has been just good enough to live up to Trojan standards. He can be inconsistent at times, and I do not believe in him as a leader or a QB the way I believe in many other QBs across the country - starting with Penn State's senior Daryll Clark.
While it's true that USC has recruited a stable of 5* players across the board, * rankings done by recruiting services are projections, and most of the offensive players for the Trojans have not lived up to those projections and they do not play well as a TEAM - something PSU does very well together. In order to keep everyone smiling and prevent transfers like Emmanuel Moody, USC feeds the ball to Gable, McKnight, Johnson, etc. Guys like McKnight were hailed as the 2nd coming of Walter Payton, and have not lived up to that billing. Many of these backs never get into a groove, they all average 50 to 60 yards per game, and with the substitutions and a slightly above average QB in Sanchez, comes a sputtering offense that has not come anywhere close to hitting the peak it should be hitting.
USC's offense faced 4 top 35 defenses this year: Ohio State (#8), Arizona (#23), Cal (#24), and Oregon State (#31) and scored 35, 17, 17, and 21 respectively. With USC starting an inconsistent QB Boeckman, and no Beanie Wells to keep time of possession, it's no wonder they scored the most on them. But in those 4 games, USC averaged 22 points per game, down 15 points from the 37 they usually average in an offensive conference like the Pac-10. This Penn State defense should be one of the best defenses, if not THE best, most prepared defense they will face this year. And if USC scores what they average vs. these type of defenses (22 points), it is going to be very difficult to cover the 10 point spread even with their defense.
Penn State is not a team that should be classified as a Big Ten team. Along with Michigan who hired Rodriguez to change their team into a spread attack, and Ohio State who recruited Terrell Pryor to run a more effective offense, Penn State made the transition already before the both of them. Penn State's spread attack is the future of the Big Ten and part of being a good handicapper is to see things before the general public and the books see them.
USC's defense has put up stats that may make them a case as one of the best defenses ever. But Penn States spread attack, starting with their senior mobile QB Daryll Clark, bruising tailback Evan Royster, and gamebreaker Derrick Williams - will score enough points to cover tonight and maybe win outright.
That is because this is not a typical Big Ten pro-style, physical offense. Penn State is one of the fastest teams in the Big Ten, they have done very well on the road this year, and they play mistake free football. In fact, Penn State passed two big tests in my eyes that made me a believer where other Penn State teams would have stumbled in the past: They blew out Wisky in a trap night game at Camp Randall. And they went to OSU with all eyes on them and found a way to win. NO PENALTIES AND NO TURNOVERS IN THAT GAME. This is a very disciplined team that will not beat themselves.
This teams offense is very explosive, they can score points in a hurry, their offense is better than USCs, and that will allow them to score enough points tonight.
USC has struggled with mobile QBs. In fact if you look at every game where they gave up a few points, for the most part, it was to a team with a mobile QB - outside of the Oregon State game where they got manhandled and Quizz Rodgers became a gamebreaker. But the Stanford game, Stanford scored 23 points as Pritchard had 4 carries for 49 yards. Ohio State began to move the ball once Pryor came in the game, and he went for 11 carries for 53 yards. Oregon was able to get into double digits on this defense, as Masoli went for 11 carries for 38 yards.
It isnt so much the success of the running QBs, as it is the threat of them, giving the offense an added dimension against a defense like this. Keeping Rey honest in the middle can free up space in the middle of the field and if he doesnt stay honest Clark can scramble for first downs.
USCs defense has been lights out in the 2nd half this year. So that fact along with Penn State coming out fired up, has made me split my wager into a 1st half and full game bet.
Take the more motivated team, with the mobile senior playmaking QB that has an advanced offense that breaks the mold of the Big Ten getting double digit points vs. a team that plays defensive style ball games and may not be able to score enough to cover.
Penn State 23
USC 20
3* Penn State Nittany Lions +10 -110
The Line: Tremendous value on the JoePa's after the Big Ten has been exposed and crushed over the past few years in bowl games, especially by this same USC program. It seems like you could just pop the old tapes in of USC vs. Michigan, or USC vs. Ohio State and watch the same thing that will happen tonight. And that's where you would be making a huge mistake. Penn State is 1-point, 1 missed FG away from being undefeated and playing for the National Title. They played a huge road game at Ohio State, got a huge win, and then in a let down spot played a VERY solid Iowa team and lost by a point at Iowa. Tough stretch for many to overcome. They should not be double digit underdogs to anyone, especially a team like USC who plays a defensive style game. This is just too many points, and I think a lot of it stems from the Ohio State USC match earlier this year. Then people saw Ohio State play a tight one vs. Penn State. So they figure USC should also blow out Penn State. Wouldnt it be nice if everything worked out all nice and comfy like that in sports betting. We would all be rich. Unfortunately thats not the way things work. That game earlier this season was between Ohio State and USC. Not Penn State and USC. Ohio State started Boeckman that game and had no Beanie Wells, and it snowballed out of control. Ohio State is a completely different team now, and when Penn State played them it was at The Shoe with a seasoned Pryor, and a healthy Beanie Wells. Not like USC's case with a limited Pryor, no Beanie Wells in California.
Motivation: Penn State. USC is making their upteenth straight Rose Bowl appearance, falling just a hair short of the National Title game once again. This team has to get sick and tired of these games vs. Big Ten teams and not playing for all of the marbles. Penn State comes in anxious to rid the Big Ten of their reputation and restore the conference to prominence. HUGE recruiting tool for Penn State and win here vs. USC puts them on the same level and same conversation with the USCs, Texas, Floridas again. And with JoePa's time running low, what a great signature win, in what has been a magical season for Penn State that has seemed destined from Day 1 to end in a big bowl win for the Nittany Lions. Penn State is fired up to be here, and while USC is happy, they arent thrilled. I think Penn State comes out with a lot of emotion and intensity in this game, especially early.
Trends: We all know USC is outstanding vs. the Big Ten and out of conference. But what about Penn State? PSU is 8-4 since 1993 in bowl games and 9-3 straight up. PSU is 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS since 1993 vs. the Pac 10. 13-1 SU and 10-2 ATS vs. non conference opponents in the last 3 seasons. That INCLUDES their blowout win over the same Oregon State team that manhandled USC.
My Line: USC -3
Analysis: The USC Trojans are THE program of the decade, easily. And with that distinction, comes inflated lines. This line is no different. USC is 6-6 ATS this year, and I'm sure many people thought they'd cover almost any line that was thrown at them. The simple principle of the matter that USC is 6-6 ATS and Penn State was 7-3 ATS shows that USC got too much respect and Penn State got too little.
When you think USC Trojans, you typically think Offense. You think Matt Leinart, Carson Palmer and Reggie Bush. But those days are long gone for the Trojans and that is why they will not cover this spread. They are left with an under performing, underachieving offense led by Mark Sanchez, who has been just good enough to live up to Trojan standards. He can be inconsistent at times, and I do not believe in him as a leader or a QB the way I believe in many other QBs across the country - starting with Penn State's senior Daryll Clark.
While it's true that USC has recruited a stable of 5* players across the board, * rankings done by recruiting services are projections, and most of the offensive players for the Trojans have not lived up to those projections and they do not play well as a TEAM - something PSU does very well together. In order to keep everyone smiling and prevent transfers like Emmanuel Moody, USC feeds the ball to Gable, McKnight, Johnson, etc. Guys like McKnight were hailed as the 2nd coming of Walter Payton, and have not lived up to that billing. Many of these backs never get into a groove, they all average 50 to 60 yards per game, and with the substitutions and a slightly above average QB in Sanchez, comes a sputtering offense that has not come anywhere close to hitting the peak it should be hitting.
USC's offense faced 4 top 35 defenses this year: Ohio State (#8), Arizona (#23), Cal (#24), and Oregon State (#31) and scored 35, 17, 17, and 21 respectively. With USC starting an inconsistent QB Boeckman, and no Beanie Wells to keep time of possession, it's no wonder they scored the most on them. But in those 4 games, USC averaged 22 points per game, down 15 points from the 37 they usually average in an offensive conference like the Pac-10. This Penn State defense should be one of the best defenses, if not THE best, most prepared defense they will face this year. And if USC scores what they average vs. these type of defenses (22 points), it is going to be very difficult to cover the 10 point spread even with their defense.
Penn State is not a team that should be classified as a Big Ten team. Along with Michigan who hired Rodriguez to change their team into a spread attack, and Ohio State who recruited Terrell Pryor to run a more effective offense, Penn State made the transition already before the both of them. Penn State's spread attack is the future of the Big Ten and part of being a good handicapper is to see things before the general public and the books see them.
USC's defense has put up stats that may make them a case as one of the best defenses ever. But Penn States spread attack, starting with their senior mobile QB Daryll Clark, bruising tailback Evan Royster, and gamebreaker Derrick Williams - will score enough points to cover tonight and maybe win outright.
That is because this is not a typical Big Ten pro-style, physical offense. Penn State is one of the fastest teams in the Big Ten, they have done very well on the road this year, and they play mistake free football. In fact, Penn State passed two big tests in my eyes that made me a believer where other Penn State teams would have stumbled in the past: They blew out Wisky in a trap night game at Camp Randall. And they went to OSU with all eyes on them and found a way to win. NO PENALTIES AND NO TURNOVERS IN THAT GAME. This is a very disciplined team that will not beat themselves.
This teams offense is very explosive, they can score points in a hurry, their offense is better than USCs, and that will allow them to score enough points tonight.
USC has struggled with mobile QBs. In fact if you look at every game where they gave up a few points, for the most part, it was to a team with a mobile QB - outside of the Oregon State game where they got manhandled and Quizz Rodgers became a gamebreaker. But the Stanford game, Stanford scored 23 points as Pritchard had 4 carries for 49 yards. Ohio State began to move the ball once Pryor came in the game, and he went for 11 carries for 53 yards. Oregon was able to get into double digits on this defense, as Masoli went for 11 carries for 38 yards.
It isnt so much the success of the running QBs, as it is the threat of them, giving the offense an added dimension against a defense like this. Keeping Rey honest in the middle can free up space in the middle of the field and if he doesnt stay honest Clark can scramble for first downs.
USCs defense has been lights out in the 2nd half this year. So that fact along with Penn State coming out fired up, has made me split my wager into a 1st half and full game bet.
Take the more motivated team, with the mobile senior playmaking QB that has an advanced offense that breaks the mold of the Big Ten getting double digit points vs. a team that plays defensive style ball games and may not be able to score enough to cover.
Penn State 23
USC 20
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