4* East Carolina Pirates -3 -110
East Carolina head coach Skip Holtz is building a program at East Carolina. I think he believes in what he has going, and he confirmed that by denying the offer to coach the Syracuse Orangemen. Skip is invested in this program and I think he can taste that he is close.
This program has pulled off quite a few upsets and when they have time to prepare, they have come out and done very well. They opened their season by beating Virginia Tech and West Virginia, back to back, showing me that not only they can beat good teams, but they can beat good teams that play defense. For a big part of the year, Kentucky was the SECs leading defense.
Every bowl game is huge when you are trying to build a program. East Carolina should come out fired up to face an SEC Team here, while Kentucky showed be fairly motivated, but hard to imagine how much after they faced FSU last year, went through an SEC schedule this year facing the likes of Florida Alabama, etc.. and now have to face East Carolina, who doesnt get the respect they deserve.
A big part of this wager is what these teams have proven on the field this year. East Carolina has not only played more bowl teams, they have gone 4-3 against them. Kentucky, meanwhile has gone 0-5 against bowl teams - showing they just cant find a way to get it done vs. a quality opponent. The Kentucky wins have been very weak this year, probably the weakest set of wins than any bowl team: Lousiville, Norfolk State, Middle Tenn State, Western Kentucky, and the 2 SEC Bottom feeders Arkansas and Mississippi State. There are ZERO quality wins. While they have played teams like Bama tough, it usually came on the heels of a let down spot for the opposition, such as Bamas 17-14 win over Kentucky came on the heels of Bamas huge win at the time over Georgia.
Kentucly closed the season by winning 1 of their final 5 games to barely make bowl eligiblity, and they won 2 of their final 8 games. Both wins were by 1 point. Otherwise the games vs. Norfolk State, Lousivlle, and Midd Tenn State, they gave up 3, 2, and 3 points, inflating their defensive stats. They werent able to hold any team the rest of the season to a single digit point output, in what should have been a relatively weak offensive conference this year for the SEC breaking in tons of new starting QBs.
East Carolina went 8-1 SU this year when they held their opponents to 29 points or less. Kentucky was able to score 28 points or more in just 3 of their 12 games, and two of those games were vs. Norfolk State and Western Kentucky.
It's hard to imagine how Kentucky belongs in this bowl game.
East Carolina may seem like a team that could have an entirely different record, they took 3 games to overtime, and won 2 of them. They suffered a loss in OT to NC State. So while this team could be 7-6, they could also easily be 10-3, and 10 wins is a big accomplishment in college football and that is what they are shooting for here today along with national respect.
A few reasons I havent bumped this play up:
#1 - My excel sheet line says East Carolina -2, and the other model says Kentucky -17. As I have mentioned many times this season, this is to serve as a guide and not the basis for a play and I have gone against the excel sheet plenty of times this season and have a winning record doing so.
#2 - Kentucky does have some talent on their team, as I think 6 or so guys made All-SEC.
But thats really about all I could find. East Carolina is a team that has found a way to win games, went 4-3 vs. bowl teams, is a program on the rise, and has more to play for.
ECU is not a very public team, so despite public percentages slightly leaning towards the Pirates, more moneyline money has come in on Kentucky and a ECU win does not hurt Vegas. An "unpublic" team like ECU giving away points, means Vegas' numbers have ECU as the better team. A reasonable 3 point spread should not hurt ECU backers.
*My* Score Prediction:
East Carolina 27
Kentucky 20
East Carolina head coach Skip Holtz is building a program at East Carolina. I think he believes in what he has going, and he confirmed that by denying the offer to coach the Syracuse Orangemen. Skip is invested in this program and I think he can taste that he is close.
This program has pulled off quite a few upsets and when they have time to prepare, they have come out and done very well. They opened their season by beating Virginia Tech and West Virginia, back to back, showing me that not only they can beat good teams, but they can beat good teams that play defense. For a big part of the year, Kentucky was the SECs leading defense.
Every bowl game is huge when you are trying to build a program. East Carolina should come out fired up to face an SEC Team here, while Kentucky showed be fairly motivated, but hard to imagine how much after they faced FSU last year, went through an SEC schedule this year facing the likes of Florida Alabama, etc.. and now have to face East Carolina, who doesnt get the respect they deserve.
A big part of this wager is what these teams have proven on the field this year. East Carolina has not only played more bowl teams, they have gone 4-3 against them. Kentucky, meanwhile has gone 0-5 against bowl teams - showing they just cant find a way to get it done vs. a quality opponent. The Kentucky wins have been very weak this year, probably the weakest set of wins than any bowl team: Lousiville, Norfolk State, Middle Tenn State, Western Kentucky, and the 2 SEC Bottom feeders Arkansas and Mississippi State. There are ZERO quality wins. While they have played teams like Bama tough, it usually came on the heels of a let down spot for the opposition, such as Bamas 17-14 win over Kentucky came on the heels of Bamas huge win at the time over Georgia.
Kentucly closed the season by winning 1 of their final 5 games to barely make bowl eligiblity, and they won 2 of their final 8 games. Both wins were by 1 point. Otherwise the games vs. Norfolk State, Lousivlle, and Midd Tenn State, they gave up 3, 2, and 3 points, inflating their defensive stats. They werent able to hold any team the rest of the season to a single digit point output, in what should have been a relatively weak offensive conference this year for the SEC breaking in tons of new starting QBs.
East Carolina went 8-1 SU this year when they held their opponents to 29 points or less. Kentucky was able to score 28 points or more in just 3 of their 12 games, and two of those games were vs. Norfolk State and Western Kentucky.
It's hard to imagine how Kentucky belongs in this bowl game.
East Carolina may seem like a team that could have an entirely different record, they took 3 games to overtime, and won 2 of them. They suffered a loss in OT to NC State. So while this team could be 7-6, they could also easily be 10-3, and 10 wins is a big accomplishment in college football and that is what they are shooting for here today along with national respect.
A few reasons I havent bumped this play up:
#1 - My excel sheet line says East Carolina -2, and the other model says Kentucky -17. As I have mentioned many times this season, this is to serve as a guide and not the basis for a play and I have gone against the excel sheet plenty of times this season and have a winning record doing so.
#2 - Kentucky does have some talent on their team, as I think 6 or so guys made All-SEC.
But thats really about all I could find. East Carolina is a team that has found a way to win games, went 4-3 vs. bowl teams, is a program on the rise, and has more to play for.
ECU is not a very public team, so despite public percentages slightly leaning towards the Pirates, more moneyline money has come in on Kentucky and a ECU win does not hurt Vegas. An "unpublic" team like ECU giving away points, means Vegas' numbers have ECU as the better team. A reasonable 3 point spread should not hurt ECU backers.
*My* Score Prediction:
East Carolina 27
Kentucky 20
Being a ky native i totally agree ecu is my biggest bowl play of the year by far. Right behind florida. Ky can not score with what they have left on offense injuries have depleted them at qb,rb and wr. You are on the right side here. If ky scores nore than 10 it will be because of a def. Td
lets get them
lets get them
4* Utah Utes +9 -110
Bama got newfound respect from me after their performance in the SEC Title game. But you have to imagine the deflating feeling this team has after going undefeated all season long to trip at the finish line and now face the Utah Utes in the Sugar Bowl. What a crushing blow. To make matters worse, this run-first team loses the best player on their team, Left Tackle Andre Smith, projected to be a top 3 OVERALL pick in the NFLDraft 1 week before the game. I dont give a rats ass who his backup is, he is NOT Andre Smith. Losing O-Line chemistry on a team that thrives behind it's O-Line is not a good thing going into a bowl game vs. a *SUPER* Motivated team.
It isnt like Bama is Texas Tech and they are going to sling it around and get rid of the ball. Bama relies and banks on their O-Line doing its job, and Andre Smith is a big reason for that gameplan.
John Parker Wilson must be extra comfy in the pocket knowing his blind side is covered by the best left tackle in college football, but thats not longer the case, either. So dont underestimate the importance of losing your left tackle a week before the game.
Now that Ive emphasized that, let's break this thing down.
Utah is currently undefeated, and I dont care who you are, or what conference you play in, going undefeated is a special thing. It tells me this team is going to fight until the end. It tells me they find a way to get things done no matter what. It's a reason why Boise State covered their game vs. TCU despite TCU outplaying them. Boise would never say die.
A lot of people want to compare this game to last years Sugar Bowl between Hawaii and Georgia and that is just wrong. Hawaii was a finesse team, with a finesse system, that went up against a red hot Georgia team and they hadnt seen anything like it all year. Hawaii was a WAC Team with a weak schedule and this is a Mountain West Conference who continues their push to show that they are a BCS Confernece.
Saban showed this team little respect unintentionally by saying Bama was the only school that went through a "real BCS Conference" undefeated. Talk about bulletin board material.
This year is a very good Utah team, with an extremely underrated defense, that can play some physical football if they have to, they can win a slugfest if they have to, vs. a Bama team that is emotionally and mentally out of this game. Nick Saban does a great job of telling the media how hard this team works and how they dont take anyone lightly, but I heard this from Saban all year about how his teams dont finish 4 quarters, and how his teams would come out in the 2nd half focused and finish 4 quarters of football and it rarely happened. So I dont buy the fact that Bama is focused here. No doub,t Saban conducts all-business practices, but after losing that game to Florida, you have to wonder if these Bama players arent frustrated after all of that hard work to end up playing Utah in this game. Long story short, huge motivational edge to the Utes, who will fight until the end of this game, and I love that in an underdog.
If Utah didnt have a QB, especially a play making QB, this wouldnt be a play. But Brian Johnsonis the best QB you havent seen this year. He is an NFL type body, he can make plays with his feet and he spreads the ball around well. Bama has struggled vs. quality QBs this year. No doubt they are built well to win in the SEC, playing physicaly and shutting down the run, but Utah has balance, and a playmaking QB and that is where Bama has given up the most points this season - Florida 31 points, 216 yards passing and 2 TDs, 62 yards rushing (Tim Tebow), Georgia 30 points, 274 yards passing and 2 TDs (Matthew Stafford), and Ole Miss 20 points, 192 yards passing and 1 TD, 36 yards rushing (Jevan Snead) are the 3 best QBs Bama has played this year. Add Brian Johnson to that list. Bama has given up an average of 27 points per game, up 2 full TDs (14 points) for the 13 PPG they allowed all year on average. The other QBs they have played have been horrible. The formula is simple... good QB play = 20+ points for Bamas opposition.
Another key component to this game is the Utah defense, especially the #14 rushing defense. I'm not saying they will shut the Bama ground game down, but with Andre Smith out, and Utah being able to slow the run, you have to like their chances of covering this many points in this game - especially when I have them slated to score 20+. Bama is not built to blow people out, and their blowout wins against Clemson and Georgia suddenly dont look as impressive as they once did.
Utah has played good defenses this year, see TCU, Oregon State for example, they have played good offenses this year, see BYU, they have played good running teams and held them in check see Quizz Rodgers 116 total yards, and Air Force was held to less than 100 with their triple option.
Getting this many points in this game, in addition to the 20+ Utah will score, no Andre Smith and the fact that Bama isnt built to score anyway, and they are mentally deflated, all seems to add up to a Utah cover here.
Final thoughts: Utah has won 7 straight bowl games, and is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. Nick Saban for all of his hype, is just 3-4 in bowl games in his career, and after losing to FL in the SEC Championship game, adds another defect to his big game record. Saban's National Title with LSU is the only big game bringing his career along right now.
Big money coming in late on on Utahas I have seen the line driven down to 8.5 at a lot of shops.
My Line, Alabama -2.
Alabama 26
Utah 24
Bama got newfound respect from me after their performance in the SEC Title game. But you have to imagine the deflating feeling this team has after going undefeated all season long to trip at the finish line and now face the Utah Utes in the Sugar Bowl. What a crushing blow. To make matters worse, this run-first team loses the best player on their team, Left Tackle Andre Smith, projected to be a top 3 OVERALL pick in the NFLDraft 1 week before the game. I dont give a rats ass who his backup is, he is NOT Andre Smith. Losing O-Line chemistry on a team that thrives behind it's O-Line is not a good thing going into a bowl game vs. a *SUPER* Motivated team.
It isnt like Bama is Texas Tech and they are going to sling it around and get rid of the ball. Bama relies and banks on their O-Line doing its job, and Andre Smith is a big reason for that gameplan.
John Parker Wilson must be extra comfy in the pocket knowing his blind side is covered by the best left tackle in college football, but thats not longer the case, either. So dont underestimate the importance of losing your left tackle a week before the game.
Now that Ive emphasized that, let's break this thing down.
Utah is currently undefeated, and I dont care who you are, or what conference you play in, going undefeated is a special thing. It tells me this team is going to fight until the end. It tells me they find a way to get things done no matter what. It's a reason why Boise State covered their game vs. TCU despite TCU outplaying them. Boise would never say die.
A lot of people want to compare this game to last years Sugar Bowl between Hawaii and Georgia and that is just wrong. Hawaii was a finesse team, with a finesse system, that went up against a red hot Georgia team and they hadnt seen anything like it all year. Hawaii was a WAC Team with a weak schedule and this is a Mountain West Conference who continues their push to show that they are a BCS Confernece.
Saban showed this team little respect unintentionally by saying Bama was the only school that went through a "real BCS Conference" undefeated. Talk about bulletin board material.
This year is a very good Utah team, with an extremely underrated defense, that can play some physical football if they have to, they can win a slugfest if they have to, vs. a Bama team that is emotionally and mentally out of this game. Nick Saban does a great job of telling the media how hard this team works and how they dont take anyone lightly, but I heard this from Saban all year about how his teams dont finish 4 quarters, and how his teams would come out in the 2nd half focused and finish 4 quarters of football and it rarely happened. So I dont buy the fact that Bama is focused here. No doub,t Saban conducts all-business practices, but after losing that game to Florida, you have to wonder if these Bama players arent frustrated after all of that hard work to end up playing Utah in this game. Long story short, huge motivational edge to the Utes, who will fight until the end of this game, and I love that in an underdog.
If Utah didnt have a QB, especially a play making QB, this wouldnt be a play. But Brian Johnsonis the best QB you havent seen this year. He is an NFL type body, he can make plays with his feet and he spreads the ball around well. Bama has struggled vs. quality QBs this year. No doubt they are built well to win in the SEC, playing physicaly and shutting down the run, but Utah has balance, and a playmaking QB and that is where Bama has given up the most points this season - Florida 31 points, 216 yards passing and 2 TDs, 62 yards rushing (Tim Tebow), Georgia 30 points, 274 yards passing and 2 TDs (Matthew Stafford), and Ole Miss 20 points, 192 yards passing and 1 TD, 36 yards rushing (Jevan Snead) are the 3 best QBs Bama has played this year. Add Brian Johnson to that list. Bama has given up an average of 27 points per game, up 2 full TDs (14 points) for the 13 PPG they allowed all year on average. The other QBs they have played have been horrible. The formula is simple... good QB play = 20+ points for Bamas opposition.
Another key component to this game is the Utah defense, especially the #14 rushing defense. I'm not saying they will shut the Bama ground game down, but with Andre Smith out, and Utah being able to slow the run, you have to like their chances of covering this many points in this game - especially when I have them slated to score 20+. Bama is not built to blow people out, and their blowout wins against Clemson and Georgia suddenly dont look as impressive as they once did.
Utah has played good defenses this year, see TCU, Oregon State for example, they have played good offenses this year, see BYU, they have played good running teams and held them in check see Quizz Rodgers 116 total yards, and Air Force was held to less than 100 with their triple option.
Getting this many points in this game, in addition to the 20+ Utah will score, no Andre Smith and the fact that Bama isnt built to score anyway, and they are mentally deflated, all seems to add up to a Utah cover here.
Final thoughts: Utah has won 7 straight bowl games, and is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. Nick Saban for all of his hype, is just 3-4 in bowl games in his career, and after losing to FL in the SEC Championship game, adds another defect to his big game record. Saban's National Title with LSU is the only big game bringing his career along right now.
Big money coming in late on on Utahas I have seen the line driven down to 8.5 at a lot of shops.
My Line, Alabama -2.
Alabama 26
Utah 24
