4* LSU Tigers +4 -110
Real interesting game tonight vs. Ga Tech and LSU. I have had quite a bit of success betting on or against LSU over the years.
A lot of respect has been given to GA Tech over these past few weeks leading up to this bowl game, and this is yet another example of people overreacting to one good looking win. In this case, Georgia Tech was able to win a rivalry game over Georgia, 45-42, which sent the country buzzing about the Yellow Jackets. I wasn't very impressed. First of all you don't cap games by what happened in one game. Second of all, anything can happen in rivalry games, especially if you are a team like Georgia, picked to be in the National Title game, you realized you will not win the East, and you finish your conference schedule and close the season vs. an in-state rival who is fired up to play you and prove what they can do with their first year head coach. It was just a bad spot for Georgia overall.
Forget the Georgia game ever happened. (A game by the way that despite how impressive GA Tech may have looked, they only won by 3).
Georgia Tech is not a team that steamrolls people. It is not a team that is going to hang 50 points on people. That game vs. Georgia was their highest point output of the season, like many teams did this year in their final game. Georgia Tech typically averages 26 points per game. So let's not get carried away with what Georgia Tech can do offensively. Let's not even get into the fact that teams with this triple option type of offense are 0-2 ATS in bowl games. When teams have time to prepare, this type of attack gets slowed. The lack of versatility in an offense like this hurts. The inability to throw the ball hurts. There is a reason why big schools don't use this type of attack, and if there is any team in the country with the athletes and defensive ability to slow this type of attack down, LSU has to be one of those teams.
This spread is GA Tech laying 4 points. In their 12 games this year, GA Tech played 8 teams were worth a darn, and they only beat one of them (Miami) by more than 4 points. In fact, when they have faced a top 35 rush defense, which happened 3 times this year, they scored 19, 17, and 21. GA Tech averages 19 points per game vs. teams that sport a top 35 rush defense.
You can say whatever you want about the SEC Offenses. But there is one thing they do traditionally well and that is run the ball and play defense and that holds true even when they leave conference play year in and year out. SO while there may be questions about the offenses in the SEC this year, and is NOT because the defenses were dominant. The defenses are always dominant, and that is why the SEC puts more players, especially on the defensive side of the ball, into the NFL every year. With all of that being said, LSU's offense is very underrated averaging 30+ points per game in a very good defensive conference.
That gets me to my next point which is this LSU team was one of a handful of teams this year that you have to look to bet on in their bowl game because of their inexperience at the QB position when the year started. They have QBs that have completed a full season now, went through a few weeks of gameplanning for one game, and you have to like and feel a little more confident in their QBs in this game. That hols especially true with a coach like Les Miles, who is not scared to roll the dice.
Miles has been superb in bowl games, obviously blowing out last years national championship contender Ohio State, blowing out Notre Dame the year before, etc. LSU is no stranger to the Peach Bowl either where they disposed of the Hurricanes, and won SEC Titles in this building.
LSU sports the #16 rush defense in the country, and they are the type of team that is cocky. They dont care if you run a spread, or an option, they dont change their defense for anything. They do what they do and they believe in it. Their familiarity with their system allows their athletes to run around and make plays. In the Florida and Georgia game, this hurt them badly, because those teams had QBs and playmakers on the outside that can cause problems and LSU did not adjust their defense to the spread attacks. But vs. a team like Tech, this will work fine for them because they are very good in pursuit from sideline to sideline and win their man to man battles. This triple option attack is one dimnensional and good defenses like BC, VA Tech, etc have been able to shut it down to 19 and 17 points respectively. Tech can not thrw the football at all, and you cant be one dimensional vs. good defenses.
While Georgia Tech loves to chew up yards on the ground and keep offenses on the sideline, LSU is also able to do that one their side of the ball. Scott, Keiland and even the speedy Holliday give LSU a stable of ball carriers that can chew up yardage. But the difference in this game, is their ability to pass the ball to big time targets such as Brandon LaFell. Again, their balance on offense allowed them to put up 30+ PPG in a good defensive conference. Techs defense is good, but LSU has faced very similar defenses all year long and was able to put up a good amount of points on each one.
Big coaching advantage to Les Miles in this game. I think he's one of the most underrated coaches in the country and he has been in this bowl game, in this stadium, and on big stages many times before, while Paul Johnson, the ACC Coach of the Year, has not.
This game, while very big for Tech, is also very big for LSU. They had a very below average season by their standards and winning this game can erase the memories from this season, and keep them moving in the rebuilding direction. It takes pressure off of Miles, etc.
Although LSU is coming off a national title game to this bowl, it wasnt like it was a last minute, late in the year collpase that lead to this point. LSU knew for a long time they would be playing in a bowl like this, and the Peach Bowl is actually a very good bowl game, and I think they are happy to be here, considering how their season went.
Three key trends right here:
# Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
# Tigers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.
# Tigers are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Overall this is a good matchup for LSU, who scored less than 21 points only one time this season, and whenever Tech has faced a top 35 rush defense, they average 19 points per game. Plus LSU is catching 4 points. Tech isnt built to blow people out, and LSU has regrouped, refocused, new gameplan, I think the Tigers will be ready to roll and make a statement tonight.
LSU 24
Georgia Tech 20
Real interesting game tonight vs. Ga Tech and LSU. I have had quite a bit of success betting on or against LSU over the years.
A lot of respect has been given to GA Tech over these past few weeks leading up to this bowl game, and this is yet another example of people overreacting to one good looking win. In this case, Georgia Tech was able to win a rivalry game over Georgia, 45-42, which sent the country buzzing about the Yellow Jackets. I wasn't very impressed. First of all you don't cap games by what happened in one game. Second of all, anything can happen in rivalry games, especially if you are a team like Georgia, picked to be in the National Title game, you realized you will not win the East, and you finish your conference schedule and close the season vs. an in-state rival who is fired up to play you and prove what they can do with their first year head coach. It was just a bad spot for Georgia overall.
Forget the Georgia game ever happened. (A game by the way that despite how impressive GA Tech may have looked, they only won by 3).
Georgia Tech is not a team that steamrolls people. It is not a team that is going to hang 50 points on people. That game vs. Georgia was their highest point output of the season, like many teams did this year in their final game. Georgia Tech typically averages 26 points per game. So let's not get carried away with what Georgia Tech can do offensively. Let's not even get into the fact that teams with this triple option type of offense are 0-2 ATS in bowl games. When teams have time to prepare, this type of attack gets slowed. The lack of versatility in an offense like this hurts. The inability to throw the ball hurts. There is a reason why big schools don't use this type of attack, and if there is any team in the country with the athletes and defensive ability to slow this type of attack down, LSU has to be one of those teams.
This spread is GA Tech laying 4 points. In their 12 games this year, GA Tech played 8 teams were worth a darn, and they only beat one of them (Miami) by more than 4 points. In fact, when they have faced a top 35 rush defense, which happened 3 times this year, they scored 19, 17, and 21. GA Tech averages 19 points per game vs. teams that sport a top 35 rush defense.
You can say whatever you want about the SEC Offenses. But there is one thing they do traditionally well and that is run the ball and play defense and that holds true even when they leave conference play year in and year out. SO while there may be questions about the offenses in the SEC this year, and is NOT because the defenses were dominant. The defenses are always dominant, and that is why the SEC puts more players, especially on the defensive side of the ball, into the NFL every year. With all of that being said, LSU's offense is very underrated averaging 30+ points per game in a very good defensive conference.
That gets me to my next point which is this LSU team was one of a handful of teams this year that you have to look to bet on in their bowl game because of their inexperience at the QB position when the year started. They have QBs that have completed a full season now, went through a few weeks of gameplanning for one game, and you have to like and feel a little more confident in their QBs in this game. That hols especially true with a coach like Les Miles, who is not scared to roll the dice.
Miles has been superb in bowl games, obviously blowing out last years national championship contender Ohio State, blowing out Notre Dame the year before, etc. LSU is no stranger to the Peach Bowl either where they disposed of the Hurricanes, and won SEC Titles in this building.
LSU sports the #16 rush defense in the country, and they are the type of team that is cocky. They dont care if you run a spread, or an option, they dont change their defense for anything. They do what they do and they believe in it. Their familiarity with their system allows their athletes to run around and make plays. In the Florida and Georgia game, this hurt them badly, because those teams had QBs and playmakers on the outside that can cause problems and LSU did not adjust their defense to the spread attacks. But vs. a team like Tech, this will work fine for them because they are very good in pursuit from sideline to sideline and win their man to man battles. This triple option attack is one dimnensional and good defenses like BC, VA Tech, etc have been able to shut it down to 19 and 17 points respectively. Tech can not thrw the football at all, and you cant be one dimensional vs. good defenses.
While Georgia Tech loves to chew up yards on the ground and keep offenses on the sideline, LSU is also able to do that one their side of the ball. Scott, Keiland and even the speedy Holliday give LSU a stable of ball carriers that can chew up yardage. But the difference in this game, is their ability to pass the ball to big time targets such as Brandon LaFell. Again, their balance on offense allowed them to put up 30+ PPG in a good defensive conference. Techs defense is good, but LSU has faced very similar defenses all year long and was able to put up a good amount of points on each one.
Big coaching advantage to Les Miles in this game. I think he's one of the most underrated coaches in the country and he has been in this bowl game, in this stadium, and on big stages many times before, while Paul Johnson, the ACC Coach of the Year, has not.
This game, while very big for Tech, is also very big for LSU. They had a very below average season by their standards and winning this game can erase the memories from this season, and keep them moving in the rebuilding direction. It takes pressure off of Miles, etc.
Although LSU is coming off a national title game to this bowl, it wasnt like it was a last minute, late in the year collpase that lead to this point. LSU knew for a long time they would be playing in a bowl like this, and the Peach Bowl is actually a very good bowl game, and I think they are happy to be here, considering how their season went.
Three key trends right here:
# Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
# Tigers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.
# Tigers are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Overall this is a good matchup for LSU, who scored less than 21 points only one time this season, and whenever Tech has faced a top 35 rush defense, they average 19 points per game. Plus LSU is catching 4 points. Tech isnt built to blow people out, and LSU has regrouped, refocused, new gameplan, I think the Tigers will be ready to roll and make a statement tonight.
LSU 24
Georgia Tech 20
arty:
