1.5* Houston Cougars -4 -110
Going to start slow with the smaller market games and increase the unit size as the games get bigger with the bigger, better teams.
As we all know, Houston and Air Force matched up earlier this year in what was supposed to be a home game for Houston, and turned into a neutral site match because of Hurricane Ike. A distracted Houston team that had their home game moved, and probably had plenty of family in the state of Texas that they were concerned about, and came out flat vs. an Air Force team with a triple option attack that stunned the Cougars out of the gate. As AF went up 31-7, Houston made adjustments that should carry over to this game. AF went up 31-7 not only because of the surprise factor of running their option attack, but because it was horrible weather conditions that easily favored the run first Falcons over the pass happy Cougars. Houston made a comeback in the game that fell short.
Fast forward to the bowl season, where Houston is now the longest reigning team without a bowl win after the Notre Dame loss. New 1st year head coach Kevin Sumlin was brought in to change that.
His season started slow as he was a new coach installing new systems on both sides of the ball, but the Houston Cougars may be one of the most improved teams in the country, and their season turned around after their big win over East Carolina. Houston is a strong home team, but did poorly on the road. In my eyes, this is an essential home game for the Cougars.
Everyone is aware they sport the #1 offense in the country, and while this is typically a good situation to fade a team with a shiny offense that plays no defense, this game shapes up to be a fairly even matchup on paper, with both teams showing an ability to move the down the field.
The difference in this game is experience, motivation, ability to come from behind, revenge, home field, etc.
Houston has now seen the Air Force attack first hand. Air Force only attempted 7 passes on that rainy/windy day when these two teams first met, and I'm sure AF had to empty the running playbook. Houston has experience seeing this attack already.
Air Force seems disappointed to be playing in this same bowl game as last year and against a team like Houston. Air Force is the type of team that they want to go out and win a bunch of games, get bowl eligible and take on a powerhouse, like they did vs. Cal last year. In these types of games, AF can come out fired up, surprise the unmotivated opponent with the option attack and play a tight game with a chance to win and change their programs perception as a football school. Here, they come in as the unmotivated team vs. a team that has seen the option attack, and a team that is very motivated to win their first bowl game under their first year head coach.
AF is 8-4 this year. But they are just 2-4 straight up when they give up 20 points or more. They should give up 20+ today. With weather conditions sunny, 5-7 mph winds, and 40-50 degrees, Houston should have no problem airing it out in this game, and scoring more points than the 28 they put up in poor weather conditions. Getting into a shootout, or facing an offensive powerhouse is the triple options worst nightmare.
AF also has 3 major injuries to starting players including their inside linebacker. AF head coach Troy Calhoun has been upset about AF's commitment as an athletic department to their football program, and he has had plenty of meetings with their athletic director that his assistants need to be paid more or they will walk. The word is that this game may be many of their asst coaches final game with AF.
Too much "noise" in the system here with injuries, coaching/athletic department issues, unmotivated team vs. a team out for revenge and first bowl win. A high octane offense is just what the doctor ordered in this type of game, and Houston, despite their poor defense, has no issues getting into a back and forth match.
They have shown they can come from behind, but that is something Air Force may struggle with.
I liked an option team like Navy vs. a team that couldnt score like Wake, you gotta love those running teams that can wear down a defense to win the tight games. But to take an option team that relies on the ground game exclusively vs. a team that can score at will is a dangerous proposition in good weather conditions. If AF falls behind in this game, it could be all she wrote. And with this game being an essential home game for Houston, and them being very motivated, I expect them to get out to a fast start, put their foot on the gas and make this inexperienced freshman-laden Air Force offense pass the ball to play catch up.
We know Houston can come from behind, they proved it earlier this year....so if Houston somehow falls behind in this game, I am still liking my bet. But now can Air Force show they can come from behind?
I may have played AF if this line was 7 or more points. That is the line you typically see when you have a high octane offense and the books show you a 1score+ line to show you how they are favroed to blow the other team out. But a line of +4 here, to me, shows AF too much respect. I hate saying this considering I've been backdoored more than Taylor Rain so far, bit this game and line should essentially be pick your winner, and I like Houston in this spot.
My Line, Houston -14.
Houston 34
Air Force 20
