2X Totals = 2-2 50.0%. -0.4 units
Totals = 45-54 45.5%. -14.3 units
Sides = 9-7 56.3% +1.4 units
Brutal run on unders regardless of the teams I'm on. My numbers just keep spitting them out and when I bet them, for the most part, I pick up CLV but lose. Tough to discern.
#572 New Orleans/San Antonio under 238
#578 Golden St./Portland under 232
Totals = 45-54 45.5%. -14.3 units
Sides = 9-7 56.3% +1.4 units
Brutal run on unders regardless of the teams I'm on. My numbers just keep spitting them out and when I bet them, for the most part, I pick up CLV but lose. Tough to discern.
#572 New Orleans/San Antonio under 238
#578 Golden St./Portland under 232
2X Totals = 2-2 50.0%. -0.4 units
Totals = 47-57-1 45.2%. -15.6 units
Sides = 9-7 56.3% +1.4 units
Going to make some adjustments. Bookmakers have adjusted and are jacking up these totals a few points right out of the gate. It's still not working, as many of these games are still flying over, but betting under on the overnight has become worthless. I'm going to limit myself to no more than one under bet per day and only bet overs on the overnights...I'll wait and try to catch any under at peak on game day.
Totals = 47-57-1 45.2%. -15.6 units
Sides = 9-7 56.3% +1.4 units
Going to make some adjustments. Bookmakers have adjusted and are jacking up these totals a few points right out of the gate. It's still not working, as many of these games are still flying over, but betting under on the overnight has become worthless. I'm going to limit myself to no more than one under bet per day and only bet overs on the overnights...I'll wait and try to catch any under at peak on game day.
2X Totals = 2-2 50.0%. -0.4 units
Totals = 47-58-1 45.2%. -16.7 units
Sides = 9-7 56.3% +1.4 units
To no avail. 70 point 1st quarter and this bet was done before it started. I'll continue through the All-Star break but my numbers, obviously, are not producing winners. I have made adjustments for the ridiculous way the NBA is being played this year but it doesn't matter, ANY game no matter of the teams or circumstance is capable of hitting 250+. I have 100+ points of CLV and have done a good job of betting the peak on other wagers, none of that matters when you pick at 46% though.
I'll be releasing less games and also initiating a "Ridiculous OVER of the day" wager.
Overnight for 12-20-23:
Ridiculous OVER of the day:
#538 Miami/Orlando over 219.5 - No Jimmy Butler you say. Orlando playing a bit slower of late. Let's bet this game up on the overnight for no reason other than it's the lowest total on the board.
A side play too:
#542 Toronto +5
Totals = 47-58-1 45.2%. -16.7 units
Sides = 9-7 56.3% +1.4 units
To no avail. 70 point 1st quarter and this bet was done before it started. I'll continue through the All-Star break but my numbers, obviously, are not producing winners. I have made adjustments for the ridiculous way the NBA is being played this year but it doesn't matter, ANY game no matter of the teams or circumstance is capable of hitting 250+. I have 100+ points of CLV and have done a good job of betting the peak on other wagers, none of that matters when you pick at 46% though.
I'll be releasing less games and also initiating a "Ridiculous OVER of the day" wager.
Overnight for 12-20-23:
Ridiculous OVER of the day:
#538 Miami/Orlando over 219.5 - No Jimmy Butler you say. Orlando playing a bit slower of late. Let's bet this game up on the overnight for no reason other than it's the lowest total on the board.
A side play too:
#542 Toronto +5
For 12-21-23:
Ridiculous OVER of the day:
#514 LA Lakers/Minnesota over 224.5 - Lakers one of the few teams in the league with more under than overs so far in 2023. Davis one of the few people in the league who can guard KAT well and the T'Wolves one of the few teams that can run several quality big men at Davis. These two have played under in 8 of last 10 matchups with most of those falling WAY below this number. "old man" Lebron and both teams on a back-to-back. No way anyone who sets reasonable numbers can have this number at 225 or more. Both of my numbers are lower than 224. Let's bet this over on the overnights because Lebron is awesome.
Ridiculous OVER of the day:
#514 LA Lakers/Minnesota over 224.5 - Lakers one of the few teams in the league with more under than overs so far in 2023. Davis one of the few people in the league who can guard KAT well and the T'Wolves one of the few teams that can run several quality big men at Davis. These two have played under in 8 of last 10 matchups with most of those falling WAY below this number. "old man" Lebron and both teams on a back-to-back. No way anyone who sets reasonable numbers can have this number at 225 or more. Both of my numbers are lower than 224. Let's bet this over on the overnights because Lebron is awesome.
2X Totals = 2-2 50.0%. -0.4 units
Totals = 48-58-1 45.2%. -15.7 units
Sides = 9-8 52.9% +0.3 units
Ridiculous OVER = 2-0 100% +2.0 units
Lakers decided to make it even easier for us yesterday by unexpectedly sitting Lebron James for the game. Result...ridiculous over hits and clears both the opening number, the bet up number, and the closing number which bottomed out after the Lebron news.
For 12-22-23:
Ridiculous OVER of the day:
#518 Toronto/Philadelphia over 230 - Toronto one of the better defensive teams in the league and also one of the slower paced. These two teams have met 10 times in the last 2 years with most of the relevant players and team dynamics staying similar. Those 10 games have seen Toronto really struggle to score, averaging a paltry 102.9 ppg, and the games play to an average total in regulation of just 211.1. The highest listed total in those 10 meetings was 223.5 and not a single one of those games exceeded this listed total (230). They've met twice this year with the two totals being 214 and 214.5, one game going over and one under, but playing to an average total of just 217. Makes no sense to line this game at 230 and anyone running competent numbers wouldn't have this number at 230 or above.
#526 Phoenix/Sacramento under 244.5
Totals = 48-58-1 45.2%. -15.7 units
Sides = 9-8 52.9% +0.3 units
Ridiculous OVER = 2-0 100% +2.0 units
Lakers decided to make it even easier for us yesterday by unexpectedly sitting Lebron James for the game. Result...ridiculous over hits and clears both the opening number, the bet up number, and the closing number which bottomed out after the Lebron news.
For 12-22-23:
Ridiculous OVER of the day:
#518 Toronto/Philadelphia over 230 - Toronto one of the better defensive teams in the league and also one of the slower paced. These two teams have met 10 times in the last 2 years with most of the relevant players and team dynamics staying similar. Those 10 games have seen Toronto really struggle to score, averaging a paltry 102.9 ppg, and the games play to an average total in regulation of just 211.1. The highest listed total in those 10 meetings was 223.5 and not a single one of those games exceeded this listed total (230). They've met twice this year with the two totals being 214 and 214.5, one game going over and one under, but playing to an average total of just 217. Makes no sense to line this game at 230 and anyone running competent numbers wouldn't have this number at 230 or above.
#526 Phoenix/Sacramento under 244.5
2X Totals = 2-2 50.0%. -0.4 units
Totals = 50-58-1 46.3%. -13.7 units
Sides = 9-8 52.9% +0.3 units
Ridiculous OVER = 3-0 100% +3.0 units
Another winner for the ridiculous over as the Raptors, down by 13 with 24 seconds left to play, hit a 3 to push the game over the total by 2 points. The 3 was the last shot taken in the game.
#530 Milwaukee/NY Knicks under 243.5
Totals = 50-58-1 46.3%. -13.7 units
Sides = 9-8 52.9% +0.3 units
Ridiculous OVER = 3-0 100% +3.0 units
Another winner for the ridiculous over as the Raptors, down by 13 with 24 seconds left to play, hit a 3 to push the game over the total by 2 points. The 3 was the last shot taken in the game.
#530 Milwaukee/NY Knicks under 243.5
Ridiculous OVER of the day:
#544 Memphis/Atlanta over 236.5 - Grizzlies have played 2 games since the return of Morant and played to lower totals vs two of the more up-tempo teams in the league, Indiana (219) and New Orleans in NO (228), and now you set the opener in this game in the 240's? Grizzlies have been one of the few under teams in the league and are 17-10 under for the season. How can people be betting this game under, don't they know Ja Morant is awesome and all Hawks games go over!
#544 Memphis/Atlanta over 236.5 - Grizzlies have played 2 games since the return of Morant and played to lower totals vs two of the more up-tempo teams in the league, Indiana (219) and New Orleans in NO (228), and now you set the opener in this game in the 240's? Grizzlies have been one of the few under teams in the league and are 17-10 under for the season. How can people be betting this game under, don't they know Ja Morant is awesome and all Hawks games go over!
Sorry, I haven't had much time lately to check in on things. I see you're hanging in there. I didn't realize you also did college hoops. I see you're hanging in there as well, and would be profitable if it weren't for that one bad day. I believe you about the old days. I saw a guy win over 100 units in college hoops one year by absolutely crushing CLV.
I'm actually far from a great capper. I do know what it takes to win -- a lot of work. I just don't have the time to put into it at the moment. I hope to someday.
Are you really an author?
2X Totals = 2-2 50.0%. -0.4 units
Totals = 51-58-1 46.8%. -12.7 units
Sides = 9-9 50.0% -0.9 units
Ridiculous OVER = 4-0 100% +4.0 units
This one finally reached my buy price, I'm surprised it did not get bet up sooner.
#588 Milwaukee/NY Knicks under 243.5
Ridiculous OVER of the day:
#590 Philadelphia/Miami over 225 - These 2 teams have played 10 relevant times in the last 2 years, here are the closing totals for those 10 games (219, 216.5, 217, 206, 207.5, 208, 211, 208.5, 210.5, 210.5) none higher than 219 and an average of 211.5. Joel Embiid, the reigning MVP and current scoring leader at 35 ppg, won't play in this game. Embiid seemingly takes half of the 76'ers shots and accounts for 28.6% of their scoring. Miami is one of the slowest paced teams in the league and may be without their best player for this one too as Butler is a GTD. With all this factored in and considering the 10 games mentioned above played to an average total of just 198, lets make the total for this game 225 and then watch it get bet UP. Ridiculous.
Totals = 51-58-1 46.8%. -12.7 units
Sides = 9-9 50.0% -0.9 units
Ridiculous OVER = 4-0 100% +4.0 units
This one finally reached my buy price, I'm surprised it did not get bet up sooner.
#588 Milwaukee/NY Knicks under 243.5
Ridiculous OVER of the day:
#590 Philadelphia/Miami over 225 - These 2 teams have played 10 relevant times in the last 2 years, here are the closing totals for those 10 games (219, 216.5, 217, 206, 207.5, 208, 211, 208.5, 210.5, 210.5) none higher than 219 and an average of 211.5. Joel Embiid, the reigning MVP and current scoring leader at 35 ppg, won't play in this game. Embiid seemingly takes half of the 76'ers shots and accounts for 28.6% of their scoring. Miami is one of the slowest paced teams in the league and may be without their best player for this one too as Butler is a GTD. With all this factored in and considering the 10 games mentioned above played to an average total of just 198, lets make the total for this game 225 and then watch it get bet UP. Ridiculous.
