Author NBA Season 2023-24

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For 11-16-23:

#518 Brooklyn/Miami over 214.5
This feels dirty but the line drop has moved it to a playable number for me. I made the total 218.5. Need Brooklyn to play decently on offense though.
 
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2X Totals = 2-1 66.7% +1.8 units
Totals = 21-26 44.7%. -7.6 units
Sides = 5-2 71.4% +2.9 units

Finally got a relatively easy win. Eyeing a rare side play for tomorrow....we'll see.

Overnights for 11-17-23:

#533 Denver/New Orleans under 224.5
#538 Phoenix/Utah under 237
#542 Houston/LA Clippers over 218
 
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Was hoping that Embiid would play so that I could get the best value on the Hawks.

#530 Atlanta +2
 
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2X Totals = 2-1 66.7% +1.8 units
Totals = 21-29 42.0%. -10.8 units
Sides = 5-3 62.5% +1.8 units

Another half point loss and I wagered on the under in a game where it's only the 2nd time since the introduction of the shot clock where both teams scored 75 or more points in the first half. Literally a .001% occurrence. Bad wager, what can you do.

For 11-18-23:

#552 Memphis/San Antonio over 225.5
#544 Charlotte +7
 
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I can't win a bet, doesn't matter what I play here it'll lose....best to fade this if you're viewing this.

#546 Minnesota/New Orleans over 219
 
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Hang in there, it’s a long season. Keep beating the close and you’ll be fine.
Appreciate it, I know CLV is key. Got a little frustrated as I used to do this at a very high level and I am thinking perhaps the market has passed me by a bit. I feel like I'm making good bets and getting poor results. Sample size is still small, so we shall see.
 
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2X Totals = 2-1 66.7% +1.8 units
Totals = 23-29 44.2%. -8.8 units
Sides = 5-4 55.6% +0.7 units

Overnights for 11-19-23

#558 Detroit/Toronto over 217.5
#564 Sacramento/Dallas under 246.5
#570 Oklahoma City/Portland under 227
 
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2X Totals = 2-1 66.7% +1.8 units
Totals = 26-29 47.3%. -5.8 units
Sides = 5-4 55.6% +0.7 units

Closing line value was very important yesterday. I have to tell you, when you watch these things like I had time to do yesterday....it's tough.

Overnights for 11-20-23:

#510 Sacramento/New Orleans under 237.5

And a side play.

#508 Minnesota -3
Knicks at the tail end of a decent road trip and have played consecutive games vs cream puff defenses. T'Wolves back home where they've been outstanding this season and have extended margins. Knicks had yesterday off and then have 3 days off after this one, this seems like a flat spot for them and potentially a "let's just finish this road trip and get home" kind of game if things go south early. Bad situational and scheduling spot for the visitor.
 
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2X Totals = 2-1 66.7% +1.8 units
Totals = 27-30 47.4%. -5.9 units
Sides = 6-4 60.0% +1.7 units

Bad luck add. Hornets somehow managed to force OT in a game they had not led or been tied in since their was 37 seconds to go in the 1st quarter. No back-n-forth, the Celtics just didn't close them out. Game was under by 18.5 points when OT hit, that's about as much of an under as you can get. What can you do.

Overnights for 11-21-23:

#518 Toronto/Orlando over 215.5
 
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2X Totals = 2-1 66.7% +1.8 units
Totals = 28-30 48.3%. -4.9 units
Sides = 6-4 60.0% +1.7 units

Overnights for 11-22-23:

Looks like a deep NBA card, my numbers are VERY close on several other plays so we'll see where the lines move throughout the day.

2X #545 Memphis/Houston over 213
#540 Sacramento/New Orleans under 237.5
 
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2X Totals = 2-2 50.0% -0.4 units
Totals = 29-30. 49.2%. -3.9 units
Sides = 6-4 60.0% +1.7 units

Looks like I should have played all of the close numbers, would have had a 6-2 day. Pick have been stronger of late though.
 
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2X Totals = 2-2 50.0%. -0.4 units
Totals = 29-31 48.3%. -5.0 units
Sides = 6-4 60.0% +1.7 units

#504 Miami/Brooklyn over 216

a rare side play from me too

#510 Utah PK
 
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2X Totals = 2-2 50.0%. -0.4 units
Totals = 29-33 46.8%. -7.2 units
Sides = 7-4 60.0% +2.7 units

Another one point loss.

Overnights for 11-27-23

#532 Philadelphia/LA Lakers under 231.5
#536 Portland/Indiana under 241.5
I've had a strict "no Indiana unders" policy in effect all season long. My number have consistently said the posted totals on Indiana games are too high but yet they continue to go over anyway. This is my breaking point. NO game involving this version of the Trailblazers should be lined in the 240's....it's ludicrous. This will probably get bet up and I'll wind up with a bad number but I made the total for this matchup 237.5 and that is with my bump for all Indiana games.
 
Joined
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Messages
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2X Totals = 2-2 50.0%. -0.4 units
Totals = 30-34 46.9%. -7.3 units
Sides = 7-4 60.0% +2.7 units

Man these 1 point and .5 point decisions are starting to get lopsided against me...NBA numbers are tight.

Overnights for 11-28-23:

#542 Charlotte/NY Knicks over 222
#548 Milwaukee/Miami over 225.5
#556 Golden St./Sacramento under 238.5
 

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