Love it when I have extra time prepare and I love the willingness of FanDuel to put lines out. Books shouldn't be scared to take wagers and the movement to conservative house limits has hurt Las Vegas as a gambling mecca. Circa is attempting to fix it but the number of venues willing to take decent wagers on early numbers is ridiculously low.
With all teams having a day off, and a decent amount of YTD data available, I think we'll get some true numbers so I'm going to expand a bit and play every game that my numbers dictate.
Overnights for 11-8-23:
Washington/Charlotte under 241
LA Lakers/Houston over 220.5
Cleveland/Oklahoma City under 235
2X Toronto/Dallas over 221.5
Another rare side play for me too:
Oklahoma City +1
With all teams having a day off, and a decent amount of YTD data available, I think we'll get some true numbers so I'm going to expand a bit and play every game that my numbers dictate.
Overnights for 11-8-23:
Washington/Charlotte under 241
LA Lakers/Houston over 220.5
Cleveland/Oklahoma City under 235
2X Toronto/Dallas over 221.5
Another rare side play for me too:
Oklahoma City +1
Very impressive line value.
As far as the low limits on overnights, you’re right, most are crazy low. I think part of it is due to the increased volume of bettors due to legalization. The great majority are squares and those are the ones that shops covet. They can survive on large volumes of small bettors. They don’t need the extra work involved with staying ahead of the sharps. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Fanduels move towards lower limits over time. At the moment, I think they’re still in cannibilizing mode, but eventually that will change and they’ll get more focused on their bottom line. All conjecture on my part, but that’s how I see it.
As far as the low limits on overnights, you’re right, most are crazy low. I think part of it is due to the increased volume of bettors due to legalization. The great majority are squares and those are the ones that shops covet. They can survive on large volumes of small bettors. They don’t need the extra work involved with staying ahead of the sharps. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Fanduels move towards lower limits over time. At the moment, I think they’re still in cannibilizing mode, but eventually that will change and they’ll get more focused on their bottom line. All conjecture on my part, but that’s how I see it.
Overnight for 11-11-23:
#528 Miami/Atlanta under 229
Seems as if every Atlanta game has gone over the total even though, somehow, they are just 5-3 to the over. They are playing at the 4th fastest pace in the NBA and are an uptempo squad. I made the total for this game 228.5 so there is not much line value but there a few factors that have me liking the under. G Herro is out for the Heat and without him they get worse offensively and better defensively. The Heat are harboring a litany of other injuries too and may have a depleted lineup. Atlanta returns from an unusual road game in Mexico City where they withered offensively in the altitude after halftime. The NBA recognizes the difficulty of the travel and the effort of playing in Mexico City and gave both game participants (Atlanta & Orlando) days off both before and after their meeting. I think we have the opportunity for a sluggish first half from the Hawks. Miami HC Spoelestra has done a good job of defending the Hawks since G Young came into the league, he's averaged just 19.8 ppg vs Miami, as the under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. All the factors above have me feeling like their should have been a dip in the opener beyond the true number and we didn't get that, so I go under.
#528 Miami/Atlanta under 229
Seems as if every Atlanta game has gone over the total even though, somehow, they are just 5-3 to the over. They are playing at the 4th fastest pace in the NBA and are an uptempo squad. I made the total for this game 228.5 so there is not much line value but there a few factors that have me liking the under. G Herro is out for the Heat and without him they get worse offensively and better defensively. The Heat are harboring a litany of other injuries too and may have a depleted lineup. Atlanta returns from an unusual road game in Mexico City where they withered offensively in the altitude after halftime. The NBA recognizes the difficulty of the travel and the effort of playing in Mexico City and gave both game participants (Atlanta & Orlando) days off both before and after their meeting. I think we have the opportunity for a sluggish first half from the Hawks. Miami HC Spoelestra has done a good job of defending the Hawks since G Young came into the league, he's averaged just 19.8 ppg vs Miami, as the under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. All the factors above have me feeling like their should have been a dip in the opener beyond the true number and we didn't get that, so I go under.
2X Totals = 1-0 100% +2 units
Totals = 17-20 46%. -5 units
Sides = 3-0 100% +3 units
For 11-12-23:
Haven't liked a lot of plays lately but, for some reason, my numbers are calling for quite a few plays today.
#540 Denver/Houston over 216
#546 Detroit/Chicago over 218
#548 Oklahoma City/Phoenix under 232.5
2X #550 Minnesota/Golden St. over 220.5
Rare side play for me too:
#542 San Antonio +2.5
Totals = 17-20 46%. -5 units
Sides = 3-0 100% +3 units
For 11-12-23:
Haven't liked a lot of plays lately but, for some reason, my numbers are calling for quite a few plays today.
#540 Denver/Houston over 216
#546 Detroit/Chicago over 218
#548 Oklahoma City/Phoenix under 232.5
2X #550 Minnesota/Golden St. over 220.5
Rare side play for me too:
#542 San Antonio +2.5
2X Totals = 2-0 100% +4 units
Totals = 19-23 45.2%. -6.3 units
Sides = 3-1 75% +1.9 units
Washington scores 1 point over the last 7:24 of the game and blows a 20 point lead. Only in the NBA. Not sure, but Washington failed to score over the last 5:46 of the game. I'm sure there has been longer droughts to end a game but it's the longest one I can remember. Also, with Washington being the fastest paced team in the league, theoretically no team would have been more unlikely to score over the last 5:46 because no other team would have had more opportunities to do so.
Oh well, we trudge on.
Totals = 19-23 45.2%. -6.3 units
Sides = 3-1 75% +1.9 units
Washington scores 1 point over the last 7:24 of the game and blows a 20 point lead. Only in the NBA. Not sure, but Washington failed to score over the last 5:46 of the game. I'm sure there has been longer droughts to end a game but it's the longest one I can remember. Also, with Washington being the fastest paced team in the league, theoretically no team would have been more unlikely to score over the last 5:46 because no other team would have had more opportunities to do so.
Oh well, we trudge on.
11-14-23 overnights:
#562 Miami/Charlotte over 224.5
#566 Atlanta/Detroit under 233.5
2X #578 Minnesota/Golden St. over 221.5
Golden St. does not match up well with the T'Wolves and I think we'll see a better offensive performance from the Warriors in this one. Strange setup of playing the same team in back-to-back home games mid-season. I made the number 226.5 and would play it over for one unit up to 223.5.
#562 Miami/Charlotte over 224.5
#566 Atlanta/Detroit under 233.5
2X #578 Minnesota/Golden St. over 221.5
Golden St. does not match up well with the T'Wolves and I think we'll see a better offensive performance from the Warriors in this one. Strange setup of playing the same team in back-to-back home games mid-season. I made the number 226.5 and would play it over for one unit up to 223.5.
2X Totals = 2-1 100% +1.8 units
Totals = 20-25 44.4%. -7.5 units
Sides = 4-1 80.0% +2.9 units
Never had a chance in the Warriors game, Curry ruled out prior to game and then Klay and Green suspended 2 minutes into the game for fighting. Not much you can do about that, crappy way to lose a 2X though.
Overnight for 11-15-23:
#512 Minnesota/Phoenix under 228
Totals = 20-25 44.4%. -7.5 units
Sides = 4-1 80.0% +2.9 units
Never had a chance in the Warriors game, Curry ruled out prior to game and then Klay and Green suspended 2 minutes into the game for fighting. Not much you can do about that, crappy way to lose a 2X though.
Overnight for 11-15-23:
#512 Minnesota/Phoenix under 228
