If I take another bad beat loss before I get some fortunate win, I will be shutting it down for the season. With my CLV value on totals and the selections I've made I should be hitting at no worse than 52.5% of my bets.....somehow, I'm at 44.4%. This is nothing but a result of random variance and to put things loosely "bad luck". It's getting hard to hack to continue to watch great bets pull negative results.
For 12-1-23:
#526 New York/Toronto over 216
#528 San Antonio/New Orleans under 237.5
No Wembanyana but the Spurs defense can't get much worse and without him preventing drives in the lane perhaps we see more 2's than 3's from the Pelicans....which is about all you can ask for in the way of "defense" in the 2023 NBA. I made the number for this game 232 and there is zero real reason for it to be lined north of 235 but the lack of defense and ridiculous over trend in the NBA has it there. This game opened at 234 and we are playing under what I believe is the peak of the total.
#530 Denver/Phoenix over 223.5
This is a rare handicapped total as the number is very close to mine (224). I like the situation and the matchups and feel that regardless of Bookers status for Phoenix this is a nice over spot. Denver's overall numbers have been held down by the Murray injury, he's back, and Phoenix's have been held down but the repeated absence of Beal, Gordon, and Durant. These two want to get up and down vs each other and I think the pace here will push this game over regardless of the participants. Also, if no Gordon for Denver it leads to an expanded role for Porter, Jr. and makes Denver more of an over squad.
A rare side play for me:
#526 Toronto -2
For 12-1-23:
#526 New York/Toronto over 216
#528 San Antonio/New Orleans under 237.5
No Wembanyana but the Spurs defense can't get much worse and without him preventing drives in the lane perhaps we see more 2's than 3's from the Pelicans....which is about all you can ask for in the way of "defense" in the 2023 NBA. I made the number for this game 232 and there is zero real reason for it to be lined north of 235 but the lack of defense and ridiculous over trend in the NBA has it there. This game opened at 234 and we are playing under what I believe is the peak of the total.
#530 Denver/Phoenix over 223.5
This is a rare handicapped total as the number is very close to mine (224). I like the situation and the matchups and feel that regardless of Bookers status for Phoenix this is a nice over spot. Denver's overall numbers have been held down by the Murray injury, he's back, and Phoenix's have been held down but the repeated absence of Beal, Gordon, and Durant. These two want to get up and down vs each other and I think the pace here will push this game over regardless of the participants. Also, if no Gordon for Denver it leads to an expanded role for Porter, Jr. and makes Denver more of an over squad.
A rare side play for me:
#526 Toronto -2
2X Totals = 2-2 50.0%. -0.4 units
Totals = 35-40 46.7%. -8.9 units
Sides = 7-5 58.3% +1.6 units
3 solid winners on the totals, lost the side but I still think pre-tip it was a good wager to make.
Overnights for 12-2-23:
#534 Minnesota/Charlotte over 220
#542 New Orleans/Chicago over 219.5
#552 Denver/Sacramento over 230
Totals = 35-40 46.7%. -8.9 units
Sides = 7-5 58.3% +1.6 units
3 solid winners on the totals, lost the side but I still think pre-tip it was a good wager to make.
Overnights for 12-2-23:
#534 Minnesota/Charlotte over 220
#542 New Orleans/Chicago over 219.5
#552 Denver/Sacramento over 230
I know the market passed me by, probably 20 years ago. I can’t say I ever did it at a high level, but I held my own in the eighties and nineties. There were no offshores back then so I could only play into late lines with locals, so getting CLV wasn’t possible. I worked hard and followed the game very closely. By the turn of the century I started to lose some desire and my results showed that. When the load management started becoming vogue I shut it down for good. I always seemed to be on the wrong side of players sitting out. It probably wasn’t really the case, it just felt that way and gave me more motivation to pack it in. The only sports I cap now are baseball and tennis. My baseball volume is very minimal, 20 or so plays a year, almost all overnights and almost all weather related plays. My CLV there is very good as are the results, but with so few plays I’m not exactly feared by the books. Tennis is my true love. It’s a thinly traded market and I believe there is a lot of value to be had. The vig is rather high in general, so that offsets some of the value. I haven’t had much success yet. I’m still working at it.
This was cool to read, thanks for sharing.....and understanding what I was speaking on too. In my heyday, just prior to KenPom beginning to post his own numbers publicly, I would torture overnight ands slow moving lines. In college hoops, I kid you not, sometimes I would get 20 points of value on my line vs the number and consistently get +3.5 or greater CLV on my NBA overnights. I bet you were a great capper as your demeanor seems calm, clear, and slow-paced......all attributes most daily wagerers don't possess. Even if your not wagering, keep following my stuff as I'd love to hear your thoughts from time to time when you want to chime in. Things have been better of late and creeping back to the .500 mark, which seems like an accomplishment of sorts.
2X Totals = 2-2 50.0%. -0.4 units
Totals = 41-43 48.8%. -6.2 units
Sides = 7-5 58.3% +1.6 units
#535 Indiana +5 (-122)
Pacers have been defending a bit better of late and they are playing well overall. I worry about Lebron's competitiveness, which is why the Lakers are here, but now that the Championship is on the line both teams should be properly motivated. In their two most relevant meetings, both were decided by a single point and in 6 meeting since 2021 the average margin at the end of regulation is 3.5 points. Gimme the neutral court dog with the better legs.
Totals = 41-43 48.8%. -6.2 units
Sides = 7-5 58.3% +1.6 units
#535 Indiana +5 (-122)
Pacers have been defending a bit better of late and they are playing well overall. I worry about Lebron's competitiveness, which is why the Lakers are here, but now that the Championship is on the line both teams should be properly motivated. In their two most relevant meetings, both were decided by a single point and in 6 meeting since 2021 the average margin at the end of regulation is 3.5 points. Gimme the neutral court dog with the better legs.
2X Totals = 2-2 50.0%. -0.4 units
Totals = 42-46 47.7%. -8.5 units
Sides = 7-6 53.8% +0.5 units
Great number on the Indiana/Detroit number didn't come through.....the over train in the NBA continues. Numbers, and results, have been better the last month but still can't turn the corner. Need great bets like that under to win.
Overnights for 12-12-23:
#564 LA Lakers/Dallas under 235.5
#568 Denver/Chicago over 218.5
Totals = 42-46 47.7%. -8.5 units
Sides = 7-6 53.8% +0.5 units
Great number on the Indiana/Detroit number didn't come through.....the over train in the NBA continues. Numbers, and results, have been better the last month but still can't turn the corner. Need great bets like that under to win.
Overnights for 12-12-23:
#564 LA Lakers/Dallas under 235.5
#568 Denver/Chicago over 218.5
2X Totals = 2-2 50.0%. -0.4 units
Totals = 43-47 47.8%. -8.6 units
Sides = 7-6 53.8% +0.5 units
Finally got rewarded for my CLV with over 218.5 in a game that landed 220 on a 220.5 close. Nice to get one of those.
Overnights for 12-13-23:
#504 New Orleans/Washington under 241
#510 Memphis/Houston over 213
A side play for me as well and I might actually have 1 more later pending line establishment:
#508 Toronto -1.5 (-120)
Totals = 43-47 47.8%. -8.6 units
Sides = 7-6 53.8% +0.5 units
Finally got rewarded for my CLV with over 218.5 in a game that landed 220 on a 220.5 close. Nice to get one of those.
Overnights for 12-13-23:
#504 New Orleans/Washington under 241
#510 Memphis/Houston over 213
A side play for me as well and I might actually have 1 more later pending line establishment:
#508 Toronto -1.5 (-120)
