Ask OldmanTed - For Newbies Only..Includes Mod Email Addys.

[oldmanTED]

PokerDud-E

Can you tell me what they are referring to when they say units? I'm following an NBA capper and he says something like 5 units, 5 dimes each, or 3 units 5 dimes each.

First of all. welcome to the RX. As to your question, when a handicapper states the number of units, he/she is placing on a game, it is an indication of the strength of the play. For instance, I rate my plays from 3 to 5 units. Their unit dollar value could be anything, from $10 to $10,000 per unit. When they use the term "dime", that means $1000. In your example, it is a bit confusing, but if the handicapper is saying 5 units at 5 dimes each, that would mean, the wager would be 5 x 5, or $25,000.

Now, since you are new to this business and our site, let me caution you to be very careful. A lot of our posters, just state plays at high levels for attention but in actuality, they are not betting anywhere near what they say. I've been in this business nearly 40 years and can spot the liars and nonsense from a mile away. We have taken polls on this site many times and our largest group of posters is composed of 20-30 year old players that wager between $25 to $50. We do, however, have a few very veteran posters who wager $1000 per unit and up. Those seeking attention are just playing with monopoly money, meaning their statements are nonsense. They rarely show a season long record. My suggestion to you is to be very wary of those stating they are playing large amounts and pay closer attention to the veteran posters who consistently provide winners and keep and show their records win or lose. We have some very good handicappers, but you have to take your time and find those that you feel are legitimate and serious handicappers. Please be careful as I don't want you getting hurt. Enjoy and best of luck to you.

 

[PokerDud-E]

Thank you for your help sir. I'm a micro better so no worries there. One more question, and this might just be a matter of opinion. I haven't had much luck capping my own plays. The strategy I'm thinking of using is following two cappers both with very good records. One tends to bet the lines, and the other bets the over/under. I was thinking of following both and if they have conflicting plays they would cancel each other out. Is this a viable strategy?

 

[oldmanTED]

PokerDud-E

Thank you for your help sir. I'm a micro better so no worries there. One more question, and this might just be a matter of opinion. I haven't had much luck capping my own plays. The strategy I'm thinking of using is following two cappers both with very good records. One tends to bet the lines, and the other bets the over/under. I was thinking of following both and if they have conflicting plays they would cancel each other out. Is this a viable strategy?

If you are going to follow two handicappers, just keep your wagers small for awhile until you are satisfied that the two you chose are providing you positive results. The strategy you are suggesting is as decent as any but don't expect to get rich quick. Just take your time and manage your money properly as you become more familiar with sports betting. Remember the object is to make money and not just have action. Always, always keep this in mind.

 

[reddog49]

sucker bets?

Are teasers, prop bets, and parlays considered sucker bets? I mainly bet the NFL and was wondering if it is better to avoid these bets all together. Thanks in advance.

 

[oldmanTED]

reddog49

Are teasers, prop bets, and parlays considered sucker bets? I mainly bet the NFL and was wondering if it is better to avoid these bets all together. Thanks in advance.

First of all welcome to the RX. To answer your question, teasers and parlays had long been considered sucker bets because when first introduced into the wagering business, the payout odds were not the actual true odds that the wagers should have paid. Over the years, the odds paid today, in some cases, are the exact true odds while in other cases very nearly the true odds. For those reasons, by definition they can no longer blindly be called sucker bets. The reason some consider them sucker bets is because it is hard enough to win one play, let alone two or more, however a sharp player can take advantage in certain situations, particularly in the NFL. As for prop bets, they are not even spoken of as sucker bets as many times a good handicapper can find great value depending on the specific prop bet be offered. Some are ridiculous, like betting the coin flip in the Superbowl, but there are many good bets offered in all the major sports, that the wise handicapper can find with due diligence. I hope this helps you in determining whether or not to consider including teasers, props, and parlays in your future decision making. Best of luck to you and welcome again!

 

[SportsBetTracker]

Great site, oldman!! I have a question with regard to figuring out a calculation.

Specifically, I need a simple equation figured out with regard to a moneyline amount (Team Two), with the following givens:

1. The house percentage (vigorish): .0909 (10/11, or in American line terms, "-110")

2. The line for one team (Team One).

I need to calculate the line for the second team, given the same vigorish amount for their winnings. I'm having a brain fart in trying to figure out what should be a simple calculation. Obviously, this is actually the most simple equation for a parley bet, but I can't even find those calculations.

Anyway, in the example above, since -110 (.909) is the vigorish, then if one team has a line of -110 (.0909 + 1.0 (bet) = 1.909), then it stands to reason that both lines would be at -110.

Now, the listing is usually attributed to the favorite, so in most cases the line will be less than -110, for instance -120 (.838). With a vig of -110 (.909), what would the calculated line be for the second team?

The reason I need this calculation:

I have a program that takes in historical odds for several years. Of course, those historical odds only shows the favorite. I need an equation to calculate the line for the second team based on a -110 vig.

Thanks! I know this is pretty long for my first post, but I expect to be here a lot. I have created a program to track sports bets, and to automatically calculate bets based on bankroll amounts and betting preferences that I'll be sharing over time. But this one calculation is driving me batty.

 

[oldmanTED]

SportsBet Tracker

Great site, oldman!! I have a question with regard to figuring out a calculation.

Specifically, I need a simple equation figured out with regard to a moneyline amount (Team Two), with the following givens:

1. The house percentage (vigorish): .0909 (10/11, or in American line terms, "-110")

2. The line for one team (Team One).

I need to calculate the line for the second team, given the same vigorish amount for their winnings. I'm having a brain fart in trying to figure out what should be a simple calculation. Obviously, this is actually the most simple equation for a parley bet, but I can't even find those calculations.

Anyway, in the example above, since -110 (.909) is the vigorish, then if one team has a line of -110 (.0909 + 1.0 (bet) = 1.909), then it stands to reason that both lines would be at -110.

Now, the listing is usually attributed to the favorite, so in most cases the line will be less than -110, for instance -120 (.838). With a vig of -110 (.909), what would the calculated line be for the second team?

The reason I need this calculation:

I have a program that takes in historical odds for several years. Of course, those historical odds only shows the favorite. I need an equation to calculate the line for the second team based on a -110 vig.

Thanks! I know this is pretty long for my first post, but I expect to be here a lot. I have created a program to track sports bets, and to automatically calculate bets based on bankroll amounts and betting preferences that I'll be sharing over time. But this one calculation is driving me batty.

First of all welcome to the RX. I have read your question a number of times in the last few minutes and I know you put a lot of thought into it but I honestly can't figure out what you are asking me. Are you asking about parlays? Give me an example that is a little more clear so I can try to answer your question.

 

[SportsBetTracker]

First of all welcome to the RX. I have read your question a number of times in the last few minutes and I know you put a lot of thought into it but I honestly can't figure out what you are asking me. Are you asking about parlays? Give me an example that is a little more clear so I can try to answer your question.

Thank you for complimenting me on my attempt at clarity. Let me try to clarify even more with more background.

I am a computer programmer, and am making several modules with regard to sports betting calculations. One of the modules I am creating takes a list of odds and outcomes of events. Here is a sample of the listing for a moneyline for baseball:

                   Open      Close
V Minnesota        -120      -125
H Tampa Bay        8.5       8.5

For purposes of this example, Minnesota is favored over Tampa Bay at -125 at close. Ignore the Open and the Totals; just use the -125 figure.

For all my calculations, I am assuming a bookie vigorish of -110. Before considering the listing, let us say that the line is "pk". That means that both teams would have a line of -110. That part is easy.

However, with this listing, Minnesota is favored. What I would like the calculation to do is to figure out what the bookmaker would set the line if you wanted to wager on Tampa Bay, based on a vigorish of -110, with Minnesota set to -120.

If it's easier to explain, you can convert from American to decimal. I can always do the reconversion. This really should be easy for me, but for some reason I'm having problems creating the equation, and this should be a simple thing for a parley calculator to accomplish.

Oldman, I really appreciate this. Even though I'm probably older than you. (I'm 51).

 

[oldmanTED]

SportsBet Tracker

Thank you for complimenting me on my attempt at clarity. Let me try to clarify even more with more background.

I am a computer programmer, and am making several modules with regard to sports betting calculations. One of the modules I am creating takes a list of odds and outcomes of events. Here is a sample of the listing for a moneyline for baseball:

                   Open      Close
V Minnesota        -120      -125
H Tampa Bay        8.5       8.5

For purposes of this example, Minnesota is favored over Tampa Bay at -125 at close. Ignore the Open and the Totals; just use the -125 figure.

For all my calculations, I am assuming a bookie vigorish of -110. Before considering the listing, let us say that the line is "pk". That means that both teams would have a line of -110. That part is easy.

However, with this listing, Minnesota is favored. What I would like the calculation to do is to figure out what the bookmaker would set the line if you wanted to wager on Tampa Bay, based on a vigorish of -110, with Minnesota set to -120.

If it's easier to explain, you can convert from American to decimal. I can always do the reconversion. This really should be easy for me, but for some reason I'm having problems creating the equation, and this should be a simple thing for a parley calculator to accomplish.

Oldman, I really appreciate this. Even though I'm probably older than you. (I'm 51).

Thank you for providing an example I can work with. Since this is a baseball line, the answer depends on whether the bookmaker involved either uses a 10 cent line or a 20 cent line. Different bookmakers use one or the other. Based on the example you provided with the vigorish set at -110 and with Minnesota set to -120, the bookmaker using a 10 cent line would set Tampa Bay at +110 and the bookmaker using a 20 cent line would set Tampa Bay at +100. For your calculations, I would suggest you use the 10 cent line as most players wager at books that offer 10 cents in lieu of 20 cents because they get a better price.

By the way, I am 61 years old and we have a few posters nearly 80 years old. Hope this helps you.

 

[SportsBetTracker]

That's interesting, though I still think there is a more precise answer in which there is a fixed mathematical calculation i place. In your example, if someone is favored at -120, the dog is set at +110 for a "dime" (at vigorish of 100/105).

If the team is heavily favored, the favorite is set at -200, which makes the dog +190. Would this seem right? The biggest favorite I saw was for -400. (In fact most of the biggest disparities involved Boston's Pedro Martinez.) So if the favorite is -400, at a dime line, the dog line would be +390. Would this be typical?

By the way, based on your answer, I'm going to create two lines of calculations on the summary results: One at a dime line, the other at a twenty-cent line. I'll let you know how they come out. I'm doing a two-year analysis of NCAA football and basketball, NFL, NBA, and NHL games. I'll work on the MLB games once I modify the moneyline.

One more thing: I have an Excel sheet which I created a few years ago to track some free handicap pics using a betting monitoring system I created to take into consideration the aggregate betting numbers, not just wins/losses. If you like, i can post it for anyone to check out, though I've discontinued development on that sheet. While it can be used for actually tracking bets, there are some limitations, but it does show how to properly manage a bankroll on a fixed percentage betting strategy.

 

[oldmanTED]

SportsBet Tracker

I'm glad I could help. As for the Excel spreadsheet, many times our posters ask if anyone has one to track their plays. Should you see such a thread, feel free to let the poster know that you have created one which you are willing to share. Thank you and best of luck!

 

[Defying]

What is steam? I see this often and not sure I understand whatsteam plays are

 

[oldmanTED]

Defying

What is steam? I see this often and not sure I understand whatsteam plays are

Steam plays occur when the line on a particular game, either side or total, is bet so heavily in a moment of time, not steadily throughout the day, such that the line moves approximately 2 or 3 points (in basketball) in a few minutes at most sportsbooks. Many players follow steam plays and swear by them but I have seen games steamed many, many times on both sides of a side or total. If you are not using a line service, I suggest that you open our "Free Odds" to either the NCAAB or the NBA and keep it open all day and watch the line movement within 60 minutes right up until the game starts. You can begin to learn how much movement there is in basketball games. In time, you will be able to recognize a steam play from regularly wagering throughout the day. I hope this has helped answer your question.

 

[SportsBetTracker]

Is there a room where we can ask technical or mathematical questions with regard to sports betting odds? The reason I ask is that I do need an exact answer based certain factors. Indeed, I appreciate any help I can come up with. It is the same question I asked a few posts before, but let me preface the reasons for why I need this calculation, then lay out the question as clearly as possible, including exactly what I need as an answer. Please bear with me the length of this post.

I have spent hours and hours on this supposedly simply mathematical calculation. :smoking:hno::smoking:

The preface: I have a list of events that have taken place over the past two years. Quite simply, there are over 10,000 events that I have listed in a file. While basketball and football is easy to figure out, as they are normal straght-line bets for both Sides and Totals, they are easy to calculate and I need no help with them.

However, baseball and hockey shows a Moneyline bet.

Each event has exactly three lines of information. The title line contains the date/time and indicates a neutral site if not a normal away/home game. This line is discarded, leaving two lines.

The first line has the AWAY team, followed by odds. The odds can either be a moneyline amount or a totals number.

The second line has the HOME team, followed by odds. As above, the odds can either be a moneyline amount or a totals number.

Between the two odds, the Moneyline is very easy to determine, as that number is always at -110 or less (-111, -112, etc). The other number is the Totals number of which I do not need the calculation. I am only trying to figure out a calculation based on a Sides bet.

If one team is showing the moneyline total, than that team is favored by the amount of points of the spread. By inference, the other team is the underdog by the same amount of points.

The totals (over/under) amount, therefore, is showing on the line of the underdog.

Here is a sample (MLB):

Boston -125
Cleveland 41

This shows that Boston is the visiting team, and Cleveland is the home team. As Boston has the moneyline total, it shows that Boston is the favorite team, and the Totals number (next to Cleveland) is 41.

Discard the Totals number, as I don't need it for the calculation, and will suppress it from the rest of the process.

Now, if someone bets on Boston of one unit, if Boston wins, his winnings will be 100/125, or .8, plus the unit wagered for a total of 1.8 units won. That part is easy.

Now, what isn't included in the calculation is the House vigorish. I believe this is what is causing some problems in the way I am trying to communicate the problem. So for now, let me defer to another example.

I am assuming that the HOUSE percentage is .0909 (or 100/110). In other words, if both teams are equal odds, then each team would be 100/110 on the payoff. Let me write it out:

Boston -110
Cleveland

Since the odds are the same for Boston as the vigorish odds for the house, then it could just as correctly be written as follows:

Boston
Cleveland -110

So at a vigorish of .0909, each team would be paid at 100/110, plus their unit back, on winning. Therefore, I can actually write it like this:

Boston -110
Cleveland -110


BACK TO THE ORIGINAL EXAMPLE

Boston -125
Cleveland

The question remains: What is the Moneyline for Cleveland, based upon a vigorish of .0909? More specifically, what is the mathematical equation for figuring out the odds?

If it makes it easier:

House Vigorish: .0909

Boston win/unit: 0.8 (plus the original unit)
Cleveland ???

What is Cleveland's win/unit based upon the line for Boston and the house vigorish given as shown?

I'm sorry for being so long, but I needed to be exact here. In short, I need the exact calculation based on my requirements. Note I don't need the actual moneyline answer as I can easily convert between decimals and moneyline displays. I just need the exact decimal answer rounded to 2 digits. Where can I ask this question if it can't be answered in this forum?

Thanks for ANY help!

 

[oldmanTED]

SportsBet Tracker

Probably the best place for you to get more answers to your questions is in the Offshore Forum. Why don't you copy and paste this same post, minus the introduction asking about a place to post and start a new thread there with a new title. If you are going to get answers, it will be in that forum. More of our veteran posters hang out there. I can't promise you will get responses but you'll get more people reading your thread. Best of luck.

 

[SportsBetTracker]

Thanks, oldman! Will do... sorry for trying anyone's patience.

Suffice to say once I have this done I'll be able to create some slick betting sheet aids for everyone in the forum!

 

[satajet]

simple whos hot because im not??????

 

[oldmanTED]

satajet

simple whos hot because im not??????

First of all welcome to the RX. Sorry to hear you haven't been successful lately. We have some very fine handicappers here that are both consistent and currently hot. Below is the link to the standings in our Tracking Forum (See Post #21) where some of our veteran posters our doing well, particularly in NCAAB. It is updated daily from the previous day's results so it is very current. Also, we have a number of handicappers that are very good and currently on nice runs but post only in the Sports Forum appropriate to that sport, i.e. NBA, NCAAB and the NHL. If you look through the various threads, you can find those that provide their updated record daily as well. The NCAAB Forum has been particularly hot lately. Wishing you the best of luck.

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?p=7598759#post7598759

 

[Packsterp]

Hello Ted all these books are sponsors of the RX forum are they all good books and can they be trusted have you used most of them? if so what are your top 5 thanks
SPORTSBETTING
SBG Global
SIA
BetED
Sportsbook
Skybook
5Dimes
BetVegasVic
BetPhoenix
BetJamaica
EasyStreet
SportBet
Betfair
Hollywood
Jazz Sports
ABC PPH
MySportsOffice

 

[oldmanTED]

Packsterp

Hello Ted all these books are sponsors of the RX forum are they all good books and can they be trusted have you used most of them? if so what are your top 5 thanks
SPORTSBETTING
SBG Global
SIA
BetED
Sportsbook
Skybook
5Dimes
BetVegasVic
BetPhoenix
BetJamaica
EasyStreet
SportBet
Betfair
Hollywood
Jazz Sports
ABC PPH
MySportsOffice

First of all as a member of the RX you are entitled to all of our resources should you have any problem whatsoever with any of our sponsors. Our head moderator Wilheim is the absolute best in the industry and resolving any issues should they arise. Now as to your question. Yes I have accounts in almost all of these books and my Top 5 in order are as follows:

5Dimes
Betjamaica
SPORTSBETTING
Jazz
Skybook



Hope this helps you and best of luck!