Academy Awards

[SoundofSilence]

Your long list of a "female villians who have won an oscar for best supporting actress" is flawed in that there haven't been more than a handful of "cold blooded, absolutely destestable villains" even nominated...

If you're saying that is because people don't even like to nominate them for those roles, then you have to accept that obviously there is a lot of support for Theron to even get *nominated*.

What you're saying isn't all that far off from saying "How many films involving a troll, wizard and dwarves have won best picture in the past? Well then, Return of the King might not win!"

Extreme example, but the point is the same -- if your sample size is miniscule, then you can't really claim an even would be a deviation from the norm, as you don't know what the norm is.

 

[boar]

JP,

I honestly think Russell Crowe lost the Oscar for A Beautiful Mind for his behaviour leading up to the show. I do think the whole Julia Roberts endorsement as being the reason for victory was a media thing. Denzel had been unlucky not to win for The Hurricance and it was yet another case of Oscar rewarding the right actor for the wrong role.
Dont get me wrong I want Keisha Castle Hughes to win as I have backed her at 35-1,26-1 and 25-1 but after seeing the performance in what I thought was a very good film - I thought her grandfather was superb - I really feel she is up against it.
Re upsets I agree there is likely to be one or two but I dont remember a year where the favourites for all the major categories were so short at this stage. Can you remember one?
As for other bookmakers betting on Oscars do you realize there is quite a large market in the UK?

 

[Oren1]

JP, you see the tradesports.com lines? I see someone's offering Alec Baldwen at +900 for supporting actor.

 

[jcambert]

Oren, I would probably play that, as I played him already at +1000.

Boar, the favorites, right before the big night are ALWAYS this short, and shorter. In fact, you can still get some of the favorites laying less than 2 to 1. It's like this every year that I have played. And, there are ALWAYS upsets. Every single year, there is an upset, period. And, it's a matter of finding the right one to put your money on. I can guarantee it won't come fro Picture or Director this year, but, rather, from a couple of the acting categories. I would say, in order of likeliehood:

Murray
Aghdashloo
Baldwin or Del Toro
Keisha

Guys, you are mistaking what I'm saying. I'm not saying that Keisha will win. I'm saying she has a shot...a much better shot than the 23 to 1 odds that I got her at. In fact, I think she has, AT WORST about a 4 to 1 shot right about now (20%) chance of winning this.


JP

 

[boar]

Sorry JP,

I dont agree that we are right before the big night. Normally the SAG's were 2 weeks before the Oscars. We haven't even had the SAG's yet which even though have a mixed record wrt the ultimate Oscar winner have dictated the market.
If you can name a year where the 6 major categories had favs (best prices) at 1-5, 2-9, 4-6,1-3,1-2 and 2-5 at this stage (pre SAG) I would be very interested to know.
I am not sure that I can agree K C-H is a 4-1 shot given that there is plenty of competition between her , NW and DK against Charlize.
As I mentioned in a previous post there have been some major upheavals after the SAG'S but Sissy Spacek and Helena Bonham Carter were not 2-7 shots in the years that Halle Berry and Helen Hunt won.
Of course there are upsets but please find me a year with a set of markets like this. By the way dont just look at the US market. You are by means untypical but there is a big market overseas with a slightly different angle on things. I have often found through 20 years of booking and betting on the Oscars that the informed money hit the UK and then Australia first before it reached the US offshore industry. I have worked in all 3 markets so I like to think I know what I am talking about!It might have been different if it was possible to bet in Vegas on the Oscars but the likes of William Hill and Ladbrokes are famous throughout the rest of the world for taking bets on anyhting including the Oscars.

 

[SoundofSilence]

Some of the best prices I could still find available for what I consider the "only two possible winners" in the following categories:

Best Picture: Return of the King -486 (Pinnacle), Mystic River +787 (Pinnacle)
Best Actor: Sean Penn -155 (Pinnacle), Bill Murray +208 (Pinnacle)
Best Actress: Charlize Theron -276 (5Dimes), Keisha Castle Hughes +1176 (Pinnacle) --- This is as low as +350 at Olympic
Best Supporting Actor: Tim Robbins -150 (Bowmans), Alec Baldwin +767 (Pinnacle)
Best Director: Peter Jackson -450 (WWTS), Sophia Coppola +750 (5Dimes)

 

[jcambert]

Boar, I don't remember, or have access to last year's odds at this time, but, we can agree to disagree. Every single year, in my memory at least, there are clear cut front runners in each of the major categories, and, each year, those odds have been well below even money. That is my recollection of things, and, I may be wrong, but, what can I say? We won't know until Oscar night, but, I'm fairly confident that there will be ac ouple of upsets.

As for best actress, forget about Watts or Keaton, as they are ZERO competition, in my opinion. If someone is going to upset Theron, it's Keisha. Keaton has no chance for fluff like Something's Gotta Give. And, it isn't Watt's year this year. Theron is the clear cut front runner and if someone is going to beat her, it's Keisha.

Last year, by the way, all the favorites were less than even money, if I remember correctly, but, I don't know their exact odds. And, we know what happened last year...Polanski, Pianist for Screenplay, Brody (who I had). Same should be true this year. What makes this year any different?

JP

 

[jcambert]

Anyone know of a sit ethat has odds up for screenplay categories, other than Olympic?

 

[Redneckman]

Thanks for the odds, sounds, gives us a feel of the movement of some of these lines.

 

[lakerfan]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> And, we know what happened last year...Polanski<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

 

[boar]

JP,

As a bookmaker on the event - Yes I am running markets on the main 6 categories - I have to keep an open mind. Punters can and willl be more opinionated. We obviously we have far more condensed timescale to this year's awards compared to previous years.
Last year only Chris Cooper was around 2-5 before the SAG's which he lost to Christopher Walken. Nicole Kidman was around Evens in a competitive market with Julianne Moore and Renee as was Daniel Day Lewis who shortened up after his SAG victory while Zeta Jones didnt shorten up until much nearer the event. As for the Picture and Director it is not even worth comparing the prices. There are always upsets but the markets this year are more sided than I have seen before and I am happy to go back further.
As a punter I always look for the value and with the Oscars it is worth trying to think one step ahead of the game - that's why I am on Theron at 7-2. As a bookmaker I can never come to the conclusion that a 6-1 has 0 % - punters often do this. I also try not to talk my own book , a common mistake that many punters make. If one can remain impartial throughout an event one has a far greater chance of securing real value and more importantly switch or trade out of one's positions, a luxury the current marketplace between wsex,pinnacle and betfair affords us. I took the big prices on Castle Hughes but layed her off/opposed her at less than 10-1 when her price shortened.
The one thing about the Oscars is they are never boring and there are certainly upsets. Saying that the favourites are shorter than they normally are at this time is not the same thing as saying there will be no upsets.

 

[jcambert]

Fair enough. And, I do see your point, and, I remain firm that there will be upsets this year in categories other than Picture or Director. The short odds don't bother me. They simply tell me that more people are betting them, but, my mindset hasn't changed once since I started betting the Oscars. I've always been impartial, and, it's how I've been able to make money every year (except one) betting the Oscars, and, I have no reason to think this year will be any different.

As for our Keisha discussion from before, I do think her odds, right now, are at about 4 to 1 (true odds) in that I think she has about a 20% chance at taking this category. I don't think Keaton has any chance at all. Theron's performance was the most hyped of the year, and, they will probably find a way to reward her. They aren't going to pass her up for Watts or Keaton. If they pass her up, it will be to make history, rewarding the youngest ever best actress nominee. Keaton's film just wasn't very good, and, it was a comedy...two things working against her. Basically, what I'm trying to explain is that, it's probably Charlize's prize, however, if they pass her up, it will be for Keisha, and nobody else.

Even if you think that she really only has maybe a 10% chance of winning this (9 to 1 odds), then it was still a nobrainer bet for me at 23 to 1. And, had I waited, I could have gotten her at like 35 to 1 at Pinnacle.

I like the value in every bet I've made (especially Seabiscuit in Cinematography at 12 to 1, and Keisha at 23 to 1), and, if only ONE Of my bets hits (other than Murray), I will come out WAY ahead...again this year.

JP

 

[jcambert]

By the way, where do I find the odds at Betfair? I can't seem to find them and, I know you mentioned them.
JP

 

[Oren1]

I made a small play on Cold Mountain for best musical score, at 5-1, just because I personally think it deserves to win. The Return of the King's score was more or less recycled from the last movies, so I'm not sure if they have that one locked up or not, although it did win the Golden Globe. It was 4-1 just a few days ago, so it seems like right now is a good time to shop for lines, not sure on that though. You could have gotten a great price on Return of the King for best visual effects when the lines opened, whereas now it's at -1500.

 

[Railbird]

Academy Lines have sharpend up last 3 years, it use to be like stealing. I have yet to see a 400 favorite lose in a main catagory.

 

[boar]

JP,

They are well hidden.
Click on Special Bets then General then Oscars!
They have the big 6.
I certainly think Murray's win at The Bafta's cant do you and him any harm but isn't it odd how Penn and Murray dont show up for Awards which they are likely to win. Maybe there could be an upset here?

Dont you think its tough for somebody like Shoreh Aghadashloo to win without a Golden Globe or SAG Nomination? I wonder whether anyone has won an Oscar without one of these nominations. Obviously the SAG's are a new award but it is still interesting.

I am certainly with you on several of your outsiders. Let's hope there are some upsets at the SAG's.

 

[ppeter]

I think Seasbiscket has an outside chance at winning best pic, certainly better than 30:1

 

[jcambert]

Boar, it isn't a problem. Just ask Marcia Gay Harden who wasn't nominated for anything a couple of years ago and still won the supporting actress award.

I firmly believe that Aghdashloo and Murray will win on Oscar night, and, I think that Keisha and Baldwin have a chance.

JP

 

[jcambert]

So, nobody knows of a book that has posted lines on the Screenplay categories other than Olympic?

 

[jcambert]

Just played Harden at +2000 at WWTS. I think this may be the most wide open race of the night, and, as I've said before, if there is going to be one, sure fire upset, I can almost guarantee it will be here.

Trying to cover my bases and with Harden being as low as +500 some places, +2000 was too much value to pass up. She's very well respected (just look at her surprise win a couple of years ago), and, she has a chance, albeit a very slim one, of pulling this off.

JP