Some info, most likely redundant for you guys, from Hollywood Reporter:
Touch of gold
A categorical look at which performances are likely to earn that 8-1/2 -pound gilded statuette
By Scott Tobias
In an Oscar season full of surprises, none was larger than Keisha Castle-Hughes, the luminous 13-year-old Kiwi star of "Whale Rider," who beat out several more-seasoned contenders to become the youngest-ever best actress nominee. What's more, the category was so hotly contested that "Rider's" nascent distributor, Newmarket, pushed her for a supporting role, hedging its bets against such formidable Oscar perennials as Nicole Kidman, Jennifer Connelly and Cate Blanchett. It's perhaps especially apropos, then, that Castle-Hughes' nomination should come for a movie like "Rider," in which she plays a precocious outsider who bucks long-held tribal traditions.
In the past, Academy members, too, were tagged as notorious traditionalists, incapable of looking beyond their inner circle. But the range and imagination of this year's acting nominations show encouraging signs that they're casting their eyes abroad. In addition to New Zealand's Castle-Hughes, three other first-time nominees hail from far-flung places around the globe: Shohreh Aghdashloo, an Iranian exile whose earthy authenticity won her a supporting nom for DreamWorks' "House of Sand and Fog"; Japan's Ken Watanabe, whose understated supporting performance stands out from Warner Bros. Pictures' otherwise-neglected "The Last Samurai"; and Djimon Hounsou, a former model from the West African enclave of Benin who confirmed his promise in 1997's "Amistad" with a pivotal turn in Fox Searchlight's"In America."
Globalization might be a running theme, but the trend toward diversity extends to the continuing parity of independent and major-studio contenders and, perhaps, a greater willingness to consider comedic performances on the same level as dramatic ones. Save for best actor, the likely winners in each category make it an easy year for prognosticators, but in many other respects, it's an open field. Returning favorites such as Ben Kingsley and Diane Keaton compete against major stars who had never before been nominated, such as Johnny Depp, Alec Baldwin and Bill Murray. Helping to sort through the cherished and the unworthy, the graced and the snubbed, are Michael Musto, gossip columnist for the Village Voice; Andrew Johnston, chairman of the 2003 New York Film Critics Circle, and Lisa Beach, casting director for Alexander Payne's comedies (including 1999's "Election" and 2002's "About Schmidt"), 1999's "Girl, Interrupted" and the "Scream" series, among others.
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Best actor nominees:
Johnny Depp, "Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl"
Ben Kingsley, "House of Sand and Fog"
Jude Law, "Cold Mountain"
Bill Murray, "Lost in Translation"
Sean Penn, "Mystic River"
"Let's not forget our brothers on the other side of the aisle -- the dramatic actors," Murray joked in a memorable acceptance speech after winning the Golden Globe for best actor (comedy/musical) for "Translation." "I'd just like to say: Where would our war, our miseries and our psychological traumas come from?"
Beyond merely poking fun at the Globes' segregated categories, Murray's quip suggests that such distinctions are unnecessary, especially when great performances often blur the line between the dramatic and the comedic. Following his soulful turn in 1998's "Rushmore" -- which, tellingly, didn't get so much as a nomination -- Murray's tailor-made role as an American actor in Tokyo undercuts his usual irreverence with powerful undercurrents of melancholy.
"To me, it's the tears of a clown," Beach says. "Here's a man who's always funny, funny, funny, and people are left to imagine what's going on inside. There's a deep well of sorrow that he taps into with this performance, and I think the Academy is going to respond to that."
"(Murray) could squeak in there," agrees Musto, though he favors Penn in a two-man race for the award. "To me, his performance represents so much of what was good about the movie -- the jaded, bittersweet humor and smartass vulnerability. It's such a non-showy performance that (awarding him) would really be a step forward for Oscar."
If conventional wisdom holds, Murray ultimately will bow to Penn, a four-time nominee who has never won an Oscar despite widespread consensus that he's one of his generation's most austere and accomplished actors. In many ways, the men are partners in eccentricity, both stubborn iconoclasts who are normally inclined to shun the media and awards shows, much less take part in an Oscar campaign. But Penn remains committed to supporting "River," a film that relies entirely on performance over spectacle and leans on his wrenching turn to carry much of the dramatic load.
Although Musto confesses to disliking "River" and not buying Penn's "method-actor-y grief," he believes that it's Penn's time to win. "It's a career-achievement thing," Musto says. "That movie and his performance have the kind of gravitas that the Academy likes to reward. Also, I think Sean has mellowed a bit, and people want to embrace him because he's a little more accessible."
Next to Murray and Penn, the other nominees barely qualify as dark-horse possibilities, but Johnston is pleasantly surprised by Depp's appearance, especially in a frivolous summer blockbuster like "Pirates." Although the New York Critics Circle gave its best actor award to Murray, Johnston says, "As much as I love Murray's work, Depp's is perhaps the better and certainly the more entertaining performance. But it's the kind of thing that never gets nominated, and when it does, it never wins. (Depp) deserved a nomination for (1994's) 'Ed Wood' and others, but he tends to do those movies that wouldn't get nominated in a million years. No one would ever think of 'Pirates' as an Oscar movie -- not remotely."
Although heartened by Depp's nomination, Johnston remains skeptical that the Academy will continue to consider light-hearted roles on the same plane as serious ones, citing Paul Giamatti in Fine Line's "American Splendor" as a particularly egregious omission. "I consider Murray's a dramatic performance with strong comedic elements," Johnston says. "If (the Academy) were really more open to comedic performances, I think Giamatti would have gotten recognized; same with George Clooney in 'Intolerable Cruelty,' Billy Bob Thornton in 'Bad Santa' and Jack Black in 'School of Rock.' These were some of my favorite performances, but they didn't stand a chance. It's just too skimpy to seem like a trend."
Will win: Bill Murray, "Lost in Translation"
Should win: Murray
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Best actress nominees:
Keisha Castle-Hughes, "Whale Rider"
Diane Keaton, "Something's Gotta Give"
Samantha Morton, "In America"
Charlize Theron, "Monster"
Naomi Watts, "21 Grams"
Not since Robert De Niro in 1980's "Raging Bull" has a performer undergone a transformation as striking as "Monster's" Theron, who added more than 25 pounds to her svelte frame and pocked her alabaster face with a mass of freckles and broken capillaries. Playing Aileen Wuornos, a hitchhiker and prostitute who was executed for killing at least six men off of Florida highways, Theron shoulders the tricky burden of humanizing the tabloid-tarred "first female serial killer" while providing a clear window into her madness. A side-by-side comparison of the made-up Theron and the real-life Wuornos reveals uncanny similarities: the buggy eyes, the awkward gait, the jerky mannishness of movement. But at nearly half a foot taller than Wuornos, Theron's Amazonian height makes her seem larger-than-life, which is appropriate for a woman who met her vilification with equal defiance.
Already hailed "one of the greatest performances in the history of cinema" by critic Roger Ebert, Theron appears certain to ride her Golden Globes victory to an Oscar.
Anyone who has questioned Theron's commitment as a serious actress will have reason for pause, but the questions remains: Is it an enduring turn or a high-concept stunt?
Musto doesn't see those qualities as mutually exclusive. "It was definitely a stunt," he says. "But it's a stunt that she pulled off, and it's what she had to do to wake people up to the fact that there's an actress inside of this beautiful persona. I think she did an amazing job and is definitely the best of the five."
"My criteria is always, 'Is there anyone else who could have played the role?'" says Beach, who cites the casting of Reese Witherspoon in "Election" as her primary yardstick. "Just like Meryl Streep for (1982's) 'Sophie's Choice' or Hilary Swank for (1999's) 'Boys Don't Cry,' nobody else could have done what Charlize does in 'Monster.' It's an extremely innovative casting choice."
In the unlikely event that Theron doesn't collect her first Oscar, the votes could go to Keaton, whose quirky spinster in "Something" plays like 1977's "Annie Hall," two decades later -- still the urban single spending weekends in the Hamptons. Although the movie often reduces her twilight romance with Jack Nicholson to sitcom cutesiness, Keaton has never seemed more vibrant or versatile, equally adept at comically off-kilter line readings and moments of genuine heartbreak.
"If there's anyone who could serve as a spoiler, it's probably (Keaton)," Johnston says. "I think that the average age of the Academy skews older, so the likelihood of females members being able to identify with her character is pretty high. She's a well-liked person with a lot of friends in the industry, and she's been around forever."
Musto says the nomination is the award for Watts and Morton, but in a strong year for lead actresses ("They could have easily had 10 names in there," he says), this year's nominees should feel fortunate for getting a slot. At the very least, the acknowledgement sets the stage for future events, confirming their reputation as serious actresses who are unafraid to expose vulnerability onscreen.
"Naomi Watts has yet to be seen," Beach says. "I think we're only tapping the surface of what she's capable of doing. I'm thrilled she got this nomination, but this is only the beginning. She will win an Academy Award; it's just a question of when."
Will win: Charlize Theron, "Monster"
Should win: Keisha Castle-Hughes, "Whale Rider"
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Best supporting actor nominees:
Alec Baldwin, "The Cooler"
Benicio Del Toro, "21 Grams"
Djimon Hounsou, "In America"
Tim Robbins, "Mystic River"
Ken Watanabe, "The Last Samurai"
Arguably the emotional linchpin of "River," Robbins plays a wounded man whose traumatic past constantly informs the present, to the point where he becomes the suspect in the murder of an old friend's daughter. Still haunted by a kidnapping that subjected him to physical and sexual abuse, Robbins' character walks and talks with the uncertain rhythms of an adolescent whose grown-up body far outpaces his regressive mind. Shrewdly cast against type, Robbins' towering height makes him seem all the more gawky and uncomfortable in his own skin. For better or worse, his performance is a reminder that the child is the father of the man.
With his imposing stature and political outspokenness, Robbins has been visible for so long that it's easy to forget that his only previous nomination came for directing 1995's "Dead Man Walking." As Musto notes: "At the Oscars, he's had to just sit there with Susan (Sarandon) as she's nominated year after year. But this looks like his moment."
"He will be the crowd-pleasing favorite," Beach says. "For years, he's been a wonderful journeyman actor. He's proven that he can be a leading man and a character man, but he hasn't always gotten the recognition he deserves."
Although most agree that it's Robbins' award to lose, it's perhaps the sign of a soft year that more mention has been made of those who did not get nominated than those who did. As former New Republic editor in chief Charles Lane, who weathered the downfall of serial fabricator Stephen Glass, Peter Sarsgaard's performance in Lions Gate's "Shattered Glass" was as good as any in 2003, a model of quiet intensity and restraint. In a film that aimed to be the next "All the President's Men" (1976), Sarsgaard masters the leveling stare of a seasoned journalist, bottling his emotions as he combs patiently through a thin web of lies.
"I was very upset that (Sarsgaard) wasn't nominated," Musto says. "I thought he was brilliant. But that movie was not a hit, so it couldn't build up much momentum. It was a hit among journalists, but we're basically the only ones who care about the world of editorial practices in magazines."
Notes Johnston: "The most glaring omission for me is Sean Astin for (New Line's 'The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King'). He's been great in all three movies, but his character arc really paid off in the last one. All the acting in the trilogy has been uniformly fine, but his is a really strong and moving performance that hit a lot of notes."
But left with Hounsou (Beach: "He's still got a ways to go before he comes into his own"), Baldwin (Johnston: "I don't think he was doing anything in 'The Cooler' that he hasn't done better in other movies"), past winner Del Toro and self-effacing newcomer Watanabe, any alternatives to Robbins are strictly a matter of idle speculation.
Will win: Tim Robbins, "Mystic River"
Should win: Robbins
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Best supporting actress nominees:
Shohreh Aghdashloo, "House of Sand and Fog"
Patricia Clarkson, "Pieces of April"
Marcia Gay Harden, "Mystic River"
Holly Hunter, "thirteen"
Renee Zellweger, "Cold Mountain"
Heading into Oscar season, no film had a more promising pedigree than "Mountain." Based on the rare best seller to find equal embrace in critical circles and led by a director (Anthony Minghella, 1996's "The English Patient") and a cast with several statuettes on their mantelpieces, it was groomed for accolades it never quite garnered. Paradoxically, the film's disappointing returns could benefit Zellweger, whose rip-snorting turn as a guileless Southern farmhand stands in sharp relief to the turgid epic surrounding it. No matter if it's a truly great performance or "Annie Get Your Gun" revisited, Zellweger's exuberance will be hard for Academy voters to deny.
"I thought she was very entertaining and very spunky, if a little one-note," Musto says. "It was not your typical, well-rounded Oscar performance; there wasn't a lot of growth and transformation in her character. But if she does win -- and it looks like she's going to -- it's mainly because she didn't win last year (for "Chicago"). The Oscars are this constant domino cycle of making up for the last year's oversight."
Last year's oversight also kept Clarkson -- a critical darling for her delectably catty performance in "Far From Heaven" -- from collecting a nomination, but this year, she had the luxury of campaigning for both "The Station Agent" and "April." Musto and Johnston believe she picked the wrong horse in "April," a sentimental comedy both disliked, but Beach says Clarkson merits attention however she gets it.
"I think for her body of work, she should be lauded and praised to the skies," Beach says. "I appreciate her as an actress so much for taking these smaller parts. She adds so much class and so much presence and so much talent to every single thing she does."
Citing Hunter and Harden as classic examples of the wisdom that "once you've won, it's easier to get nominated again but harder to win," Johnston sees a potential upset bid for Aghdashloo. Certainly, none of the other contenders can lay claim to a performance as personal and lived-in as Aghdashloo's, and DreamWorks has lobbied shrewdly for the film, screening it endlessly for guild and Academy members well before the screener ban ended.
"It's the kind of performance that sneaks in and wins sometimes," Johnston says. And in a year in which the acting field is notable foremost for its diversity, a win for Aghdashloo could prove a fitting capper.
Will win: Renee Zellweger, "Cold Mountain"
Should win: Shohreh Aghdashloo, "House of Sand and Fog"
