Academy Awards

[jcambert]

PPeter, the chances of Seabiscuit winning Best Picture, considering that it's director wasn't nominated, are slim to none. In fact, I may be wrong (someone please correct me if I am), but, I don't think it has ever happened. If you want to take a shot on a slim to none longshot, take it on Master and Commander.

I will say that I don't think anything here has any chance of upsetting, but, if I were going to play, it would be Lost in Translation or Mystic River, and only if I could get one of them at odds of like 19 to 1 or better, which isn't going to happen.

JP

 

[Redneckman]

I see Jackson lost some support at wsex after the baftas, murray gained some, I don't think the baftas will make much difference though, any thoughts?

 

[jcambert]

The BAFTAS don't make a bit of a difference. There is NO c****over in the voters, and, many of the nominees in each category weren't even nommed for the BAFTAS. For example, Zelwegger was competing against nobody nominated in Supporting Actress.
JP

 

[Redneckman]

Good points. False line movements in my opinion also.

 

[lakerfan]

BAFTA was the one awards last year that showed the support for Pianist that later showed up at the Oscars. Director and Actor awards matched. Not saying it matters this year, but ...

 

[JamesTrout]

jc> Driving Miss Daisy in 1990.

No, other bookies are only covering within the acting races, Picture and Director at most (the rest of 'em are too scared to cover the technical awards).

Is the word 'carryover' censored or were you swearing? LOL!

boar> Strange, I thought betting on the Oscars only became a 'big' thing since oooh, 1996 and has certainly become more prominent since the emergence of the internet.

7/2 on Theron? Lucky you. You work for Centrebet?

If The Return of the King CANNOT WIN the Oscar for Best Picture after getting the DGA and PGA award then I as well as many others will be astonished.

....the SAG awards and the results they'll bring this Sunday will be intriguing (I know I fell for the red herrings it provided last year.

).

Gah! I'm dumping some of the money I've deposited at Olympic on Jennifer Lopez at odds of (-140) to get Worst Actress at the Razzies and hope I can load up and get a bargain on Saturday night/Sunday morning (I got screwed last year when Madonna and Britney Spears tied! I got a fookin' push!

).

 

[boar]

James T,

No I dont work for Centrebet though I do play there. They are normally an aggressive Oscar bookie but this year their odds are rather mean.
Oscar betting has always received attention in the UK. I remember the now defunct Esals offering odds on Gandhi's chances in the early 80's. I had a treble one year on Platoon + Matlin + Newman - I forget the odds but Newman's price was bigger than it should have been as Bob Hoskins was nominated for Mona Lisa.
Nowadays I try to trade the major categories - thanks to wsex,pinnacle and the exchanges - and find some value in the techs.

 

[jcambert]

Please post your thoughts. Here are my updated thoughts, in terms of chance of winning, on each of the four acting races:

Actor:
Murray 45%
Penn 40%
Depp 10%
Kingsley 5%
Law nilch

Actress:
Theron 60%
Keisha 20%
Keaton 10% (I know many of you think this is much higher)
Watts 10%
Morton nada

Supporting Actor:
Robbins 50%
Baldwin 25%
DelToro 20%
Wantanabe 5%
Honsou zippo

Supporting Actress:
Aghdashloo 35%
Zellwegger 30%
Clarkson 20%
Harden 10%
Hunter 5%

Any thoughts?

JP

 

[SportSavant]

JC, I have for me what is a very large bet...on Peter Jackson to win best Director @ -240....Did you know that up until yesterday BHB had Peter Jackson @ -160 & LOTRIII @ -200...anyway I was too scared to post up over there LOL...

I was shocked when Peter Jackson didnt win Best director in those awards the other day? Should I be worried?

 

[SportSavant]

JC, what are the best odds you have seen for Bill Murray? Also have Sena Penn or Bill Murray ever won before...Also do aby books let you parlay...ie Parlay Peter Jackson with LOTRIII best picture? thanks...

 

[jcambert]

I don't know of any that will allow parlays, and, if anyone does, please post accordingly, as this might be valuable.

As for your being worried, there is nothing to worry about. PJ and LOTR win those two races going away. Believe me on that one.

Who is BHB? Never heard of them.
JP

 

[SoundofSilence]

If you're going to put Law at nilch might as well put Depp too... While he was great in Pirates, there is absolutely no way (read: 0% chance) that he will garner more votes than Murray or Penn.

Had it been a serious role in a serious movie he might actually have a miniscule shot as an underdog -- but like you mentioned with Keaton -- the role is not "best actor" caliber and certainly doesn't have any chance due to the competition.

 

[jcambert]

You may be right, but, he has buzz. People are talking about him. I haven't heard a single thing ever mentioned about Law having even the remotest of possibilities. The opinion that I have about Keaton is just that, my opinion, and, I know that it is in direct opposition to most people's views.

I don't think there is any way at all that Depp's chances are 0% here. And, if he garners support, and there isn't a clear cut consensus between Murray and Penn, they could, conceivably, "split the vote" allowing someone else (likely Depp) to sneak in. It's far fetched and unlikely to happen, and, I've been saying for some time now that this is essentially a two horse race, however, Depp's chances are clearly greater than 0%. Your comparing him to Law, who has won nothing, has had no buzz to speak of at all, has no chance...Depp's chances are considerably higher than that.

JP

 

[boar]

Actor:
Murray 45%
Penn 40%
Depp 10%
Kingsley 5%
Law nilch

Agree with these except I would be 45-40 in Penn's favour.

Actress:
Theron 60%
Keisha 20%
Keaton 10% (I know many of you think this is much higher)
Watts 10%
Morton nada

I think you are right about 10% for Keaton but I would be - in racecard order - 72-10-10-8-0

Supporting Actor:
Robbins 50%
Baldwin 25%
DelToro 20%
Wantanabe 5%
Honsou zippo

I would have Robbins around 55 and I do think Honsou has to have some chance. If you think the favourite is vulnerable then really anyone else could sneak in for the win. I thought Del Toro gave an incredible performance but I still adhere to the theory that in modern times the Academy doesnt like to reward the same actor too regularly.

Supporting Actress:
Aghdashloo 35%
Zellwegger 30%
Clarkson 20%
Harden 10%
Hunter 5%

I haven't seen Cold Mountain. It sounds like a yawnfest but the Academy has always rewarded people for the wrong role. Look at Russell Crowe - total garbage in Gladiator, brilliant in everything else. I am still inclined to believe that Renee has enormous momentum. I would still have Clarkson second pick as she has had so many decent roles recently. I cant comprehend the buzz around SA but then I thought the film was the most overrated I have seen in years. But I always respect the right money and she is relatively firm in the market. Against that she isnt even nominated for a SAG so her price will almost certainly drift if RZ, Clarkson or Hunter win the SAG.
If K CH wins the SAG then she could almost move into favouritism!
What price would you make Renee Z for Oscar if she wins the SAG?

Boar

 

[jcambert]

I think the last couple of years have shown that the SAGS don't mean nearly as much as people think they do (just take a look at last year). The buzz behind SA is probably the fact that, critically, her performance is the most lauded of the year.

And, consider the fact that, with Zellwegger, MANY, MANY people felt that her performance was hammy and overdone. Admittedly, many others thought it was great, however, a performance this devisive doesn't normally spell Oscar Gold. Throw in the fact that this film just wasn't well received and you have the recipe for an upset.

As for Charlize, 72%? I don't know about that. I don't think anyone is that big a lock in these days, especially with the groundswell of support that Keisha obviously has.

As for Honsou, he has no support, from what I can tell. I may be wrong, but, he's got no chance in my book. If there were to be an out of left field upset it would be Wantanabe, not Honsou.

We'll see on Oscar night how my wagers stack up.

JP

 

[boar]

JP,

Dont get me wrong I actually want several of your outsiders to prevail.
I think you may have missed my point. Renee is the frontrunner for her performance in Chicago. Make no mistake of that. I am going to call it the Crowe factor. Unbelievable in the Insider and A Beautiful Mind but average - being kind - in Gladiator.
The SAG's are just a good opinion poll of 1000,000 actors. It doesn't gurantee Oscar victory but it does show what the entire acting industry is thinking. Actors do make up just over 20% of the Academy. Helen Hunt, Halle Berry, Michael Caine even RB, the mad Italian, were decent prices (between 7-1 and 10-1 ) for Oscar before their SAG's triumph
and then shortened into either favourite or a strong 2nd favourite. Sure the fact that they are only a week before the Oscars will have less direct effect on the voting but it does show how the acting community is thinking.
This year's best supporting actress may be crucial. If Renee wins it will show that she does have significant support among actors and she would have beaten off Best Actress candidate KCH. If KCH does prevail it will show she does have enormous support and I would then say the Best Actress affair will be a close run thing. If she cant beat Renee in the SAG's she may struggle to beat Charlize in the main event.

Boar

 

[boar]

Obviously I meant 100,000 actors!

 

[jcambert]

I didn't take it the wrong way. I know what you meant. It's cool. I like exchanging ideas like this. I will point something out to you, though. While you may not have liked Crowe's performance, it was well respected, and it received alot of praise. There aren't many people who thought that the performance was terrible, whereas there are alot of people who think that Renee's performance this year is terrible, myself being one of them. Of course I'm not a member of the academy, but, you get my point.

I'm going to stand by my prediction that Renee will be upset come oscar night. In fact, as I've said before, if there is going to be ONE SINGLE upset (and I think there will be more than one), my money is on the fact that it will be in supporting actress.

I really believe that Keisha will win at the SAGS, thereby muddying the waters even more.

JP

 

[boar]

JP,

That was only 1 point re Crowe.
Again the point is that was the worst of his performances .
Personally I think Renee's performance in Bridget Jones was her best performance but as I have said before my opinion counts for
nothing. But this is her 3rd nomination and remember how they gave the Oscar to Judi Dench for 10 seconds work in SIL after she missed out for her incredible work in Mrs Brown.
I certainly dont think Renee is a certainty but if she does win the SAG she will have unbelievable momentum. Would she still be a 30% chance in your opinion? Or do the SAG's not affect your views one iota?

Boar

 

[CarolSA]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by jcambert:
Please post your thoughts. Here are my updated thoughts, in terms of chance of winning, on each of the four acting races:

Actor:
Murray 45%
Penn 40%
Depp 10%
Kingsley 5%
Law nilch

Actress:
Theron 60%
Keisha 20%
Keaton 10% (I know many of you think this is much higher)
Watts 10%
Morton nada

Supporting Actor:
Robbins 50%
Baldwin 25%
DelToro 20%
Wantanabe 5%
Honsou zippo

Supporting Actress:
Aghdashloo 35%
Zellwegger 30%
Clarkson 20%
Harden 10%
Hunter 5%

Any thoughts?

JP<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
JC I like
Penn
Theron
Robbins
Zellwegger