I'd love to say I saw Wigan winning outright, but that's not the case. My numbers had Wigan a slight advantage at +1.5 +119. If it were +105 it wouldn't have been a play, to give you an idea. Wigan needed the points much more than Arsenal, which right now sits in a comfortable third five points ahead of fourth and unable to catch the Manchester teams. So they really had nothing to play for. Wigan, meanwhile, obviously benefited from the win, moving five points out of the relegation zone. Getting the +1.5 meant they could lose by one and still win. I thought they would be the team that plays hard for the full 90 minutes, with Arsenal maybe getting a late winner or be happy with a draw.
BTW, nothing from Champs or Europa this week, and nothing from Libertadores today.
Record 65-53.5, +25.57
BTW, nothing from Champs or Europa this week, and nothing from Libertadores today.
Record 65-53.5, +25.57
THURSDAY
LIBERTADORES
Penarol (Uru) -.5 -112/Godoy Cruz (Arg), 1 unit
Both teams are eliminated fom Libertadores after this match and have anything to play for, but Godoy is traveling and played even more poorly in league. This looks like a nice feel-good win for the home team in a match that neither team cares about.
LIBERTADORES
Penarol (Uru) -.5 -112/Godoy Cruz (Arg), 1 unit
Both teams are eliminated fom Libertadores after this match and have anything to play for, but Godoy is traveling and played even more poorly in league. This looks like a nice feel-good win for the home team in a match that neither team cares about.
hno:FRIDAY
IRELAND
Bohemians -1 +121/Monaghan, 1 unit
Cork City +.5 -107/Sligo, 1 unit
Dundalk +1 +102/Derry City, 2 units
St. Patrick's -1 -147/UC Dublin, 1 unit
Bohemians are starting to get back on track, and it's time to bet them now before everyone catches up. Even -1 is cheap vs. Monaghan. Sligo is looking forward to a Setanta Cup semifinal match at home Monday and may overlook Cork. Derry City is ravaged by injuries and may only have 12 healthy players. St. Patrick's is the class, and while I don't like -147, this could be a blowout.
Record 66-53.5, +26.57
IRELAND
Bohemians -1 +121/Monaghan, 1 unit
Cork City +.5 -107/Sligo, 1 unit
Dundalk +1 +102/Derry City, 2 units
St. Patrick's -1 -147/UC Dublin, 1 unit
Bohemians are starting to get back on track, and it's time to bet them now before everyone catches up. Even -1 is cheap vs. Monaghan. Sligo is looking forward to a Setanta Cup semifinal match at home Monday and may overlook Cork. Derry City is ravaged by injuries and may only have 12 healthy players. St. Patrick's is the class, and while I don't like -147, this could be a blowout.
Record 66-53.5, +26.57
Glad you caught that, Sun Dodger. Yes, betting against Liverpool has been successful. Since they won the Carling Cup they've had nothing to play for. They're already in Europa and have no chance at Champs League. So for about a month the league schedule meant nothing to them. I couldn't pull the trigger on them in the FA Cup semifinal, but I will probably be on them in the final. But as for the rest of the league season, I don't see Liverpool having any reason to care about a match. As long as the numbers are in my favor, I will continue to bet against.
Record 71-57.5, +29.28
Record 71-57.5, +29.28
WEDNESDAY
Champs League
Real Madrid -1 -120/Bayern Munich, 2 units
Think the momentum from beating Barcelona, plus seeing Barcelona knocked out yesterday, gives Real the momentum to get past the German side.
Nothing from Italy. A numeric lean toward Novarro with Lazio in poor form, but Novarro is so beaten down in relegation I wonder if they have anything to play for.
Champs League
Real Madrid -1 -120/Bayern Munich, 2 units
Think the momentum from beating Barcelona, plus seeing Barcelona knocked out yesterday, gives Real the momentum to get past the German side.
Nothing from Italy. A numeric lean toward Novarro with Lazio in poor form, but Novarro is so beaten down in relegation I wonder if they have anything to play for.
CONCACAF FINAL
Monterrey/Santos Laguna O2.5 -126, 2 units
Monterrey leads 2-0 after the first leg. Santos has to score, and has a great home-scoring record (18 goals in nine matches). They need at least two, and if Monterrey scores they'll need four. This should be a wild one because I don't see Monterrey coming out in a full defensive stance.
Monterrey/Santos Laguna O2.5 -126, 2 units
Monterrey leads 2-0 after the first leg. Santos has to score, and has a great home-scoring record (18 goals in nine matches). They need at least two, and if Monterrey scores they'll need four. This should be a wild one because I don't see Monterrey coming out in a full defensive stance.
