Yes, I was looking at the first half line unfortunately. Bad move, as I wouldn't have bet -1.5. But a loss is a loss.
TUESDAY
COPA LIBERTADORES
Guadalajara (MEX) -.75 -116/Deportivo Quito (ECU), 2 units
Wary of Guadalajara, which is off to a bad start (0-1-4) in Mexican play. But this is a huge class difference between Mexico and Ecuador, and the match is in Mexico. In a few months, we may realize this is a cheap price. Quito lost their first league match 1-0 to Macara, at best a mid-level national team, so they may not be much better than Guadalajara in the long run.
Record: Record: 14-18, -0.99
TUESDAY
COPA LIBERTADORES
Guadalajara (MEX) -.75 -116/Deportivo Quito (ECU), 2 units
Wary of Guadalajara, which is off to a bad start (0-1-4) in Mexican play. But this is a huge class difference between Mexico and Ecuador, and the match is in Mexico. In a few months, we may realize this is a cheap price. Quito lost their first league match 1-0 to Macara, at best a mid-level national team, so they may not be much better than Guadalajara in the long run.
Record: Record: 14-18, -0.99
WEDNESDAY
COPA LIBERTADORES
Nacional (Para) PK -125/Cruz Azul (Mex), 1 unit
Union Espanola (Chi) -.5 -116/Junior (Col), 1 unit
In a bit of a rut, and need to get back to the Dogs that were more successful. But in international matches, home field advantage is even greater. The question is determining how much each team is actually trying. Mexican teams seem to blow off Copa Libertadores, even though the national federation freaked out two years ago when Copa tried to remove them from the tournament. Tigres played a B team and Guadalajara looked like they mailed it in (though they are also just a poor team). Nacional usually puts up a good effort, and Union looks to have a pretty good team this season.
Record: Record: 14-19, -3.31
COPA LIBERTADORES
Nacional (Para) PK -125/Cruz Azul (Mex), 1 unit
Union Espanola (Chi) -.5 -116/Junior (Col), 1 unit
In a bit of a rut, and need to get back to the Dogs that were more successful. But in international matches, home field advantage is even greater. The question is determining how much each team is actually trying. Mexican teams seem to blow off Copa Libertadores, even though the national federation freaked out two years ago when Copa tried to remove them from the tournament. Tigres played a B team and Guadalajara looked like they mailed it in (though they are also just a poor team). Nacional usually puts up a good effort, and Union looks to have a pretty good team this season.
Record: Record: 14-19, -3.31
THURSDAY
COPA LIBERTADORES
Universidad Catolica (Chi) -1.5 -130/Bolivar (Bol), 1 unit
Surprised right now by the road teams picking up wins in Libertadores, but it can't last. Catolica is a pretty strong international team, but flying under the radar because of national rival Universidad de Chile, the 2011 Sudamericana winner. Bolivian teams away from home are rather sketchy, and Catolica plays an uptempo style that should get them more than one goal.
Record: 15-20, -3.56
COPA LIBERTADORES
Universidad Catolica (Chi) -1.5 -130/Bolivar (Bol), 1 unit
Surprised right now by the road teams picking up wins in Libertadores, but it can't last. Catolica is a pretty strong international team, but flying under the radar because of national rival Universidad de Chile, the 2011 Sudamericana winner. Bolivian teams away from home are rather sketchy, and Catolica plays an uptempo style that should get them more than one goal.
Record: 15-20, -3.56
FRIDAY
COLOMBIA
Chico +.75 +125/Atletico Nacional, 2 units
Time to get back to the Dogs. Nacional is probably the better team, but has a major Libertadores match Tuesday, hosting Universidad de Chile, the top team in their group. They need at least a draw in that match, and will no doubt put their strength toward it. Colombian soccer teams don't have a lot of depth, so even switching two or three players out of the lineup versus Chico will affect the team. Chico, usually a decent national team, started 0-1-1 and needs at least a draw here to not face an uphill battle the rest of the season.
Record: 15-21, -4.86
COLOMBIA
Chico +.75 +125/Atletico Nacional, 2 units
Time to get back to the Dogs. Nacional is probably the better team, but has a major Libertadores match Tuesday, hosting Universidad de Chile, the top team in their group. They need at least a draw in that match, and will no doubt put their strength toward it. Colombian soccer teams don't have a lot of depth, so even switching two or three players out of the lineup versus Chico will affect the team. Chico, usually a decent national team, started 0-1-1 and needs at least a draw here to not face an uphill battle the rest of the season.
Record: 15-21, -4.86
SATURDAY
ENGLAND
Sunderland +.5 -118/Arsenal, 5 units
I actually have Sunderland favored in this match, with their impressive home form and Arsenal's slips on the road and poor overall record at Sunderland. Arsenal is only 4-2-6 on the road, allowing 25 goals and scoring 22. That includes losses to Swansea and Fulham, and a draw in their last road match at Bolton. Sunderland is a nice 5-4-3 at home, including that win over Manchester City early in the year. Loanees Bridge and Kyrgiakos will also help Sunderland. A draw is a good bet; a win not out of the question. I think this is too much of an overreaction to Arsenal's 7-1 pasting of Blackburn.
ENGLAND
Sunderland +.5 -118/Arsenal, 5 units
I actually have Sunderland favored in this match, with their impressive home form and Arsenal's slips on the road and poor overall record at Sunderland. Arsenal is only 4-2-6 on the road, allowing 25 goals and scoring 22. That includes losses to Swansea and Fulham, and a draw in their last road match at Bolton. Sunderland is a nice 5-4-3 at home, including that win over Manchester City early in the year. Loanees Bridge and Kyrgiakos will also help Sunderland. A draw is a good bet; a win not out of the question. I think this is too much of an overreaction to Arsenal's 7-1 pasting of Blackburn.
TUESDAY
CHAMPS LEAGUE
Barcelona -1.5 -105/Bayer Leverkusen, 3 units
Lyon -1 -128/APOEL, 2 units
Barcelona rested a number of players over the weekend waiting for this matchup. Their away form isn't the greatest, but this is one of those matches Barcelona shows how good they actually are, puts the matchup away in the first leg, and moves on to other matches. APOEL will put as many men as possible in front of the net to get a 0-0 draw, but Lyon should be able to sneak one past late in the match.
Record: 17-23, -9.42
CHAMPS LEAGUE
Barcelona -1.5 -105/Bayer Leverkusen, 3 units
Lyon -1 -128/APOEL, 2 units
Barcelona rested a number of players over the weekend waiting for this matchup. Their away form isn't the greatest, but this is one of those matches Barcelona shows how good they actually are, puts the matchup away in the first leg, and moves on to other matches. APOEL will put as many men as possible in front of the net to get a 0-0 draw, but Lyon should be able to sneak one past late in the match.
Record: 17-23, -9.42
TUESDAY
COPA LIBERTADORES
Defensor Sporting (Uru) -.5 -103/Deportivo Quito (Ecu), 1 unit
Not thrilled with Sporting's debut 3-0 loss in league play, but possibly there was a look-ahead to Quito. Quito hasn't been that great with their league form either, and asking the lesser team to travel and gain a point is asking a bit much.
COPA LIBERTADORES
Defensor Sporting (Uru) -.5 -103/Deportivo Quito (Ecu), 1 unit
Not thrilled with Sporting's debut 3-0 loss in league play, but possibly there was a look-ahead to Quito. Quito hasn't been that great with their league form either, and asking the lesser team to travel and gain a point is asking a bit much.
THURSDAY
EUROPA LEAGUE
Athletico Bilbao PK -110/Lokomotiv Moscow, 2 units
Schalke -.5 +106/Plzen, 2 units
Metalist Kharkov PK -126/Salzburg, 2 units
Not keen on taking three road teams, but Bilbao and Schalke are meeting teams that have been on winter break, may not be in their best form and are the weaker team. If Zenit's play was any indication (very sloppy even in the win over Benfica), the Spanish and German teams should be able to take advantage. Metalist is also on break in the Ukraine, but Salzburg's first match after their break was postponed, so there's not much of an advantage.
Record: 19-24, -6.42
EUROPA LEAGUE
Athletico Bilbao PK -110/Lokomotiv Moscow, 2 units
Schalke -.5 +106/Plzen, 2 units
Metalist Kharkov PK -126/Salzburg, 2 units
Not keen on taking three road teams, but Bilbao and Schalke are meeting teams that have been on winter break, may not be in their best form and are the weaker team. If Zenit's play was any indication (very sloppy even in the win over Benfica), the Spanish and German teams should be able to take advantage. Metalist is also on break in the Ukraine, but Salzburg's first match after their break was postponed, so there's not much of an advantage.
Record: 19-24, -6.42
TUESDAY
CHAMPS LEAGUE
Real Madrid -1.5 +124/CSKA Moscow, 3 units
CSKA is the host and has weather and artificial turf in their favor. But they also haven't played a competitive game since December 7, have a slow defensive line and are missing a couple key players. Real Madrid should be able to overcome the weather and win this match, though the second goal may not come until late.
Record: 20-26, -8.62
CHAMPS LEAGUE
Real Madrid -1.5 +124/CSKA Moscow, 3 units
CSKA is the host and has weather and artificial turf in their favor. But they also haven't played a competitive game since December 7, have a slow defensive line and are missing a couple key players. Real Madrid should be able to overcome the weather and win this match, though the second goal may not come until late.
Record: 20-26, -8.62
Tough loss Tuesday. Nothing in Champs League today, but one in Copa Libertadores.
Velez Sarfield (Arg) -1.25 -111/Chivas Guadalajara (Mex), 3 units
Chivas is very down this year (0-2-5 in league, only scoring two goals), and at this point probably also doesn't care about Libertadores. The 1-1 draw at home to Ecadorian side Deportivo Quito is a poor performance, and now they have to travel to Argentina to play a team that is much more motivated and talented. This should be a match where Velez racks up goal differential for the rest of group play.
Record: 20-27, -11.62
Velez Sarfield (Arg) -1.25 -111/Chivas Guadalajara (Mex), 3 units
Chivas is very down this year (0-2-5 in league, only scoring two goals), and at this point probably also doesn't care about Libertadores. The 1-1 draw at home to Ecadorian side Deportivo Quito is a poor performance, and now they have to travel to Argentina to play a team that is much more motivated and talented. This should be a match where Velez racks up goal differential for the rest of group play.
Record: 20-27, -11.62
SATURDAY
ENGLAND
Aston Villa PK -109/Wigan, 1 unit
Wigan needs the win and is at home, but that's been said of them a lot this season and nothing has come from it. Aston Villa, sitting just seven points above relegation, needs this win almost as much. Wigan has won just once at home this season, going back to August 27 against QPR. Aston Villa is no monster on the road, but at least they have wins over Wolves and Bolton, the two teams immediately in front of Wigan. I think Aston Villa can beat up the bad teams, and Wigan is a bad team.
Record: 24-27, -3.51
ENGLAND
Aston Villa PK -109/Wigan, 1 unit
Wigan needs the win and is at home, but that's been said of them a lot this season and nothing has come from it. Aston Villa, sitting just seven points above relegation, needs this win almost as much. Wigan has won just once at home this season, going back to August 27 against QPR. Aston Villa is no monster on the road, but at least they have wins over Wolves and Bolton, the two teams immediately in front of Wigan. I think Aston Villa can beat up the bad teams, and Wigan is a bad team.
Record: 24-27, -3.51
