AC soccer plays 2012

[achandicap]

The Irish matches admittedly took a lot out of me. I take big swings early in the season when I think my numbers are better than the bookmakers, and in this case I lost. Gotta keep moving on. Flipper, yes, I'm looking at the over in the UdC match as long as it's 2.5, or 3 at + odds. Chile has to win at least 3-0 to advance, is much the better team and will still be trying very hard at home against an inferior opponent.

FA Cup is going to be a blast tomorrow. Really think Chelsea has Champs League (both winning this year and qualifying next year) on their mind more than this.

One game Saturday. Usually don't bet spread beyond 1.5, but this is tempting.

ENGLAND
Norwich +2 +106/Arsenal, 2 units

Record 83-67.5, +15.85

 

[achandicap]

SATURDAY
COLOMBIA
Huila -.75 -140/Once Caldes, 2 units

 

[achandicap]

SUNDAY
ITALY
Cagliari +1.5 +110/Juventus, 4 units

Record 84.5-68.5, +16.97

 

[STACKSONDECK]

how do you feel about the ac/inter over?

 

[achandicap]

Stacks: I rarely play over/unders. When I do, it's a specific feel for how the game needs to be played, like the U de Chile game later this week.

TUESDAY
ENGLAND
Chelsea PK +130/Liverpool, 2 units
Back playing against Liverpool. Their last remaining goal was washed away in the FA Cup final. Chelsea still has a couple chances at Champs League, and need wins in their last two league games to qualify through league play. The Champs League final is May 19, far enough out that they'll play this one with everything they have.

Let's see if we can get back some of those losses this past week. Three bad big shots hurt.

Record 84.5-69.5, +12.97

 

[achandicap]

Officially in a slump.

EUROPA
Atletico Madrid/Athletic Bilbao DRAW +244 (90 minutes), 1 unit

Europa is very close to my numbers. Probably reaching a bit with this bet, but it's a decent number.

LIBERTADORES
Corinthians -1.5 +119/Emelec, 2 units
First match was a 0-0 draw in Ecuador, at altitude, with Corinthians coming off a surprise loss in their local quarterfinals. Now the Brazil club is at home, with nothing on their plate until the March 19 opener of the Brazilian season.

Record 84.5-70.5, +10.97

 

[achandicap]

A nice profitable day. Yeah.

THURSDAY
LIBERTADORES
Internacional +.5 +109/Fluminese, 1 unit
Universidad de Chile -1.5 -106/Deportivo Quito, 2 units

The Chile total is Over 3 -122. I don't want to need four goals to win. A two-goal difference seems more likely when Quito can win with that margin.

Record 85.5-71.5, +12.16

 

[achandicap]

FRIDAY
IRELAND
Drogheda PK +100/Bohemians, 3 units
Bray PK -129/Dundalk, 1 unit
UC Dublin +.25/Shelbourne, 2 units

Record 86.5-72.5, +13.16

 

[achandicap]

SUNDAY
ITALY
Cesena +.75 -108/Roma, 2 units
Bologna +.5 -106/Parma, 1 unit
Catania PK +140/Udinese, 2 units
Lazio PK +115/Inter, 1 unit
Siena +1.5 -112/Napoli, 1 unit

England coming tomorrow. I expect the same kind of plays: many selections, mainly Dogs, low units.

Record 87.5-73.5, +11.88

(UC Dublin was -114 Friday.)

 

[achandicap]

SUNDAY
ENGLAND
Blackburn +1.5 +114/Chelsea, 3 units
Aston Villa +.5 -134/Norwich, 1 unit
Swansea +.5 -125/Liverpool, 1 unit

Not sure if Bolton can get a full victory over Stoke for the relegation battle with QPR. I have Tottenham and Arsenal winning, though Arsenal's should be difficult. That leaves Newcastle, probably drawing at best, in the Europa position.

 

[achandicap]

TUESDAY
LIBERTADORES
Libertad/Universidad de Chile DRAW +254, 1 unit
The line is PK -110/-105, almost as close as you can get to a draw line. Yet the draw is more than 2-1. Think this is a nice price between two pretty equal teams, especially in Paraguay.

Picks will be minimal for the next month or so. I follow Brazil, which begins this weekend, and will still have Colombia and Ireland plays. I doubt I'll get into Euro 2012. If I do, it will probably be Unders for small units. The first few rounds of games are always tentative, as teams play not to lose rather than to win.

Record 91.5-77, +12.97

 

[rolltide]

I follow Brazil, which begins this weekend, and will still have Colombia and Ireland plays.

liking Sport/Fla over 2.5 this weekend

nice hit on draw last night

 

[achandicap]

THURSDAY
LIBERTADORES
Boca Juniors -.5 -145/Fluminese, 2 units
Not keen on the price, but winning Libertadores has been Boca's focus since they got back to financial stability last year.

Haven't looked at Brazil much yet, but one thing I watch is Copa da Brazil. Usually teams that move deep into that tournament tend to play well in the following Brazilian season. Copa finalists Vasco da Gama (2nd) and Coritiba (8th) last year are perfect examples, and Santos started making its big run with a win in the 2010 Copa.

Record 92.5-77, +15.51

 

[achandicap]

FRIDAY
IRELAND
Drogheda +1 -106/Shamrock, 3 units
UC Dublin +.75 +110/Cork City, 2 units

SATURDAY
CHAMPS LEAGUE
Bayern Munich -.5 -126/Chelsea, 2 units

Record 93.5-77, +17.51

 

[achandicap]

Lousy weekend, including a horrid final-minute loss by Munich. Have one today in Copa Libertadores.

Corinthians -.5 -133/Vasco da Gama, 2 units

Record 93.5-80, +9.81

 

[achandicap]

THURSDAY
LIBERTADORES
Santos -1 +109/Velez Sarfield, 2 units

Record 94.5-80, +11.81

 

[achandicap]

SUNDAY
COLOMBIA
Cartegena PK +117/Atletico Nacional, 4 units

 

[achandicap]

EURO 2012 (to win)
Portugal +1875
Netherlands +730

They are in the same group (B) as Germany, so probably only one will survive. But that survivor is going to be tough in the bracket away from Germany. Yes, they'll have to be the team that beats Spain, but Spain has some injury issues and long seasons in their Real Madrid and Barcelona players. And if by chance both Portugal and Netherlands dump Germany in the group stage...awesome!

Might have Irish plays Friday, though be wary as poor as they've been so far.

Record 94.5-80, +11.81

 

[achandicap]

EURO 2012
Greece/Poland O2 +119, 1 unit

Probably one of the few times I'll play an over in the first two rounds, but this is a must-win for Poland and I think they'll play a little more aggressively in the first match of the tournament.

 

[achandicap]

SATURDAY
EURO 2012
Denmark/Netherlands U2.5 -118, 1 unit
Portugal/Germany U2.5 -120, 1 unit

Great teams does not mean high-scoring teams.