2016 NCAA Football Systems

[rolltide]

came across this one in a newsletter:

OPPOSE 2-0 away favorites (or dogs <2)that covered both wins when facing a team off a 3+ TD victory (on Oklahoma, on App State)

op:margin > 21 and losses = 0 and wins = 2 and p:ats margin > 0 and pp:ats margin > 0 and A and line < 2
SU: 11-15-1 (-1.96, 42.3%) Teaser Records ATS: 3-24-0 (-9.54, 11.1%) avg line: -7.6 +6: 8-18-1 (30.8%) -6: 3-24-0 (11.1%) +10: 15-11-1 (57.7%) -10: 3-24-0 (11.1%) O/U: 3-7-0 (-5.20, 30.0%) avg total: 55.7 +6: 3-7-0 (30.0%) -6: 6-4-0 (60.0%) +10: 2-8-0 (20.0%) -10: 6-4-0 (60.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 35.2 161.8 30.7 15.7 179.9 2.3 5.1 4.4 6.4 8.2 25.7 Opp 39.4 160.8 34.9 21.2 224.8 1.6 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.3 27.6
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 17, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 MIAF APP away -3.5 51.5 0 Sep 17, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 OHST OKLA away -1.0 63.0

 

[rolltide]

PLAY ON a conference home dog off b2b wins and winning >2/3 of their games (on GT)

WP > 67 and CHD and p:W and pp:W and line >= 7 and season > 1983 and p:ats margin > -4.5 and op:ats margin > -16
SU: 24-69-2 (-7.53, 25.8%) Teaser Records ATS: 67-25-3 (3.79, 72.8%) avg line: 11.3 +6: 73-22-0 (76.8%) -6: 44-51-0 (46.3%) +10: 76-18-1 (80.9%) -10: 31-63-1 (33.0%) O/U: 16-21-1 (0.26, 43.2%) avg total: 55.4 +6: 12-26-0 (31.6%) -6: 25-13-0 (65.8%) +10: 10-28-0 (26.3%) -10: 29-9-0 (76.3%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 36.7 132.3 33.9 19.7 229.7 1.6 4.5 6.4 5.3 7.6 21.6 Opp 40.1 194.4 29.0 18.1 227.4 1.9 5.9 10.1 5.8 9.1 29.1
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 22, 2016 Thursday 4 2016 GTCH CLEM home 9.5 57.0

PLAY ON dogs >20 points that outgained past opponent by 200+ yards (on SMU if >+20)

(p:rushing yards + passing yards) - (po:rushing yards + poassing yards) > 199 and D and line > 20
SU: 8-67-0 (-19.55, 10.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 56-18-1 (7.61, 75.7%) avg line: 27.2 +6: 63-11-1 (85.1%) -6: 41-33-1 (55.4%) +10: 66-9-0 (88.0%) -10: 34-41-0 (45.3%) O/U: 31-41-3 (0.02, 43.1%) avg total: 58.1 +6: 23-52-0 (30.7%) -6: 41-31-3 (56.9%) +10: 17-58-0 (22.7%) -10: 52-20-3 (72.2%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 35.3 121.3 34.4 19.4 206.8 1.7 3.8 5.8 4.1 5.2 19.3 Opp 39.6 202.8 32.0 20.6 263.4 1.7 9.0 11.5 8.5 9.4 38.9
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 23, 2016 Friday 4 2016 SMU TCU home 21.0 63.5

OPPOSE big away favs off a win as home dog or small fav (on Marshall)

p:HW and AF and line < -12 and o:WP > 15 and p:line > -4 and season > 2002
SU: 24-2-0 (6.62, 92.3%) Teaser Records ATS: 2-23-1 (-9.35, 8.0%) avg line: -16.0 +6: 10-16-0 (38.5%) -6: 0-26-0 (0.0%) +10: 17-9-0 (65.4%) -10: 0-26-0 (0.0%) O/U: 12-8-1 (5.98, 60.0%) avg total: 58.1 +6: 10-11-0 (47.6%) -6: 16-5-0 (76.2%) +10: 9-11-1 (45.0%) -10: 17-4-0 (81.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 42.2 203.2 31.9 19.9 256.7 1.7 6.7 10.2 7.5 11.6 33.3 Opp 34.3 141.7 38.7 22.5 269.4 2.0 6.7 6.3 7.0 7.6 26.7
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 24, 2016 Saturday 4 2016 LOU MRSH away -25.0 74.5

OPPOSE away teams off a win after allowing >30 points in b2b games vs opponent off a win. (on Ariz St)

pooints > 30 and ppooints > 30 and p:W and A and op:W and day = Saturday
SU: 20-100-2 (-20.47, 16.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 32-85-2 (-8.38, 27.4%) avg line: 12.0 +6: 52-63-4 (45.2%) -6: 19-100-0 (16.0%) +10: 64-52-3 (55.2%) -10: 11-107-1 (9.3%) O/U: 24-27-1 (-0.69, 47.1%) avg total: 60.1 +6: 19-33-0 (36.5%) -6: 30-20-2 (60.0%) +10: 14-37-1 (27.5%) -10: 36-16-0 (69.2%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 33.3 125.6 35.9 19.9 236.8 2.1 4.5 6.2 4.8 5.5 19.3 Opp 40.9 210.8 31.9 19.9 265.5 1.5 8.8 12.6 8.8 8.0 39.8
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 24, 2016 Saturday 4 2016 CAL AZST away 4.0 82.5

OPPOSE conference teams that can't run vs opponent with good rush defense (on UTAH)

3.51 > tS(rushing yards) / tS(rushes) > 2.87 and C and 2.91 < otS(o:rushing yards) / oS(o:rushes) < 3.55 and season > 2009 and opo:rushing touchdowns = 0
SU: 4-36-0 (-16.55, 10.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 4-35-1 (-8.24, 10.3%) avg line: 8.3 +6: 16-22-2 (42.1%) -6: 3-37-0 (7.5%) +10: 21-19-0 (52.5%) -10: 3-37-0 (7.5%) O/U: 18-21-1 (0.01, 46.2%) avg total: 50.9 +6: 14-26-0 (35.0%) -6: 27-13-0 (67.5%) +10: 9-31-0 (22.5%) -10: 30-10-0 (75.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 32.1 97.7 37.3 20.9 219.1 2.4 2.8 4.8 4.2 5.4 17.2 Opp 40.9 173.4 28.9 18.5 242.8 1.4 8.5 9.0 7.7 8.4 33.7
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 23, 2016 Friday 4 2016 USC UTAH away 3.0 46.5

OPPOSE teams off a great rush defensive game but still allowed 20+ points (on ND)

po:rushes > 41 and po:rushing yards < 124 and pooints > 19 and game type = RS and p:margin > -25
SU: 54-67-0 (-2.93, 44.6%) Teaser Records ATS: 39-78-2 (-4.93, 33.3%) avg line: -1.5 +6: 55-62-2 (47.0%) -6: 27-91-1 (22.9%) +10: 72-45-2 (61.5%) -10: 22-95-2 (18.8%) O/U: 61-55-2 (-0.08, 52.6%) avg total: 53.1 +6: 44-74-0 (37.3%) -6: 74-40-4 (64.9%) +10: 33-84-1 (28.2%) -10: 85-32-1 (72.6%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 36.4 147.0 32.5 19.3 226.5 1.8 6.4 7.0 5.4 6.1 25.1 Opp 38.8 157.5 29.9 17.8 215.9 1.5 6.5 8.5 6.0 6.7 28.0
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 24, 2016 Saturday 4 2016 DUKE NOTD away 21.0 58.5

OPPOSE teams that just allowed 37+ points facing an opponent off b2b blowout wins (on Louisville)

pooints > 36 and op:margin >= 28 and opp:margin >= 28 and game type = RS and week < 12 SU: 13-132-0 (-26.68, 9.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 40-104-1 (-5.18, 27.8%) avg line: 21.5 +6: 73-70-2 (51.0%) -6: 30-113-2 (21.0%) +10: 88-55-2 (61.5%) -10: 22-122-1 (15.3%) O/U: 35-33-3 (1.86, 51.5%) avg total: 61.9 +6: 24-47-0 (33.8%) -6: 47-24-0 (66.2%) +10: 19-52-0 (26.8%) -10: 56-15-0 (78.9%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 36.6 120.7 33.8 18.7 206.7 1.8 3.8 5.3 4.2 4.5 16.6 Opp 40.4 228.7 32.2 20.8 280.5 1.4 11.7 14.8 10.7 8.3 43.3 Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 24, 2016 Saturday 4 2016 MRSH LOU home 25.0 74.5

OPPOSE big dogs off a fav loss when playing unbeaten opponent (on Louisville)

p:FL and D and line > 9.5 and o:WP = 100 and season > 2010 and line < 29 and p:site != A and op:margin > 7
SU: 2-43-0 (-27.22, 4.4%) Teaser Records ATS: 11-32-2 (-7.79, 25.6%) avg line: 19.4 +6: 20-25-0 (44.4%) -6: 7-37-1 (15.9%) +10: 24-20-1 (54.5%) -10: 4-41-0 (8.9%) O/U: 21-24-0 (1.23, 46.7%) avg total: 58.2 +6: 17-28-0 (37.8%) -6: 29-14-2 (67.4%) +10: 14-31-0 (31.1%) -10: 36-9-0 (80.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 33.7 118.1 33.3 18.2 186.9 2.0 3.7 4.8 3.0 4.6 16.1 Opp 43.4 239.0 30.6 20.2 273.9 1.3 10.7 12.8 11.7 8.1 43.3
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 24, 2016 Saturday 4 2016 MRSH LOU home 25.0 74.5

PLAY away dogs in conference game off a shutout win (on FLA)

CA and 0 < line < 16.5 and pooints = 0 and o:WP > 67 and date > 19861001 and week < 13
SU: 25-32-1 (-3.29, 43.9%) Teaser Records ATS: 41-16-1 (4.57, 71.9%) avg line: 7.9 +6: 46-11-1 (80.7%) -6: 26-32-0 (44.8%) +10: 48-10-0 (82.8%) -10: 21-36-1 (36.8%) O/U: 5-11-2 (-6.31, 31.2%) avg total: 46.2 +6: 0-18-0 (0.0%) -6: 11-7-0 (61.1%) +10: 0-18-0 (0.0%) -10: 13-5-0 (72.2%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 37.4 122.3 30.6 17.6 203.7 1.3 3.3 5.0 4.9 3.9 18.7 Opp 36.7 155.1 29.1 16.7 196.2 1.8 5.1 5.8 5.8 5.6 22.0
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 24, 2016 Saturday 4 2016 FLA TEN away 6.5 44.5

OPPOSE away favs that beat this team last year but allowing 30+ points (on SMU, on UCLA)

AF and P:FW and Points > 51 and Pooints > 29 and P:season = season -1
SU: 46-25-2 (4.71, 64.8%) Teaser Records ATS: 21-51-1 (-6.68, 29.2%) avg line: -11.4 +6: 38-35-0 (52.1%) -6: 10-62-1 (13.9%) +10: 45-27-1 (62.5%) -10: 5-67-1 (6.9%) O/U: 12-21-1 (-2.74, 36.4%) avg total: 61.2 +6: 9-25-0 (26.5%) -6: 17-16-1 (51.5%) +10: 6-28-0 (17.6%) -10: 26-8-0 (76.5%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 38.0 171.9 35.1 20.6 263.5 1.1 8.2 8.9 5.9 7.9 31.7 Opp 36.7 138.0 34.8 20.2 250.6 1.6 5.8 6.3 6.6 7.4 27.0
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 24, 2016 Saturday 4 2016 STAN UCLA away -3.0 48.0 0 Sep 23, 2016 Friday 4 2016 TCU SMU away -21.0 63.5

UNDER small dogs that were a huge dog in last year's meeting (USF/FSU under)

P:L and P:season = season -1 and P:line > 21.5 and line < 10.5 and date > 20091101 and P:margin > -45 and total < 76
SU: 27-50-0 (-4.39, 35.1%) Teaser Records ATS: 39-37-1 (-0.40, 51.3%) avg line: 4.0 +6: 53-24-0 (68.8%) -6: 19-58-0 (24.7%) +10: 57-18-2 (76.0%) -10: 16-59-2 (21.3%) O/U: 19-56-2 (-5.16, 25.3%) avg total: 55.7 +6: 14-62-1 (18.4%) -6: 35-40-2 (46.7%) +10: 11-66-0 (14.3%) -10: 50-25-2 (66.7%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 37.1 145.7 32.6 19.0 233.0 1.9 4.8 7.1 5.6 5.4 23.1 Opp 39.5 182.2 30.6 18.7 224.0 1.7 6.1 8.0 6.5 6.7 27.5
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 24, 2016 Saturday 4 2016 SFL FLST home 6.5 61.0

PLAY ON home dogs off b2b huge scoring games (on USF *******)

HD and points > 40 and ppoints > 38 and pppoints > 31
SU: 22-15-0 (0.89, 59.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 30-7-0 (7.34, 81.1%) avg line: 6.4 +6: 31-6-0 (83.8%) -6: 21-15-1 (58.3%) +10: 32-5-0 (86.5%) -10: 15-21-1 (41.7%) O/U: 7-12-0 (-3.03, 36.8%) avg total: 64.7 +6: 5-14-0 (26.3%) -6: 11-8-0 (57.9%) +10: 2-17-0 (10.5%) -10: 12-7-0 (63.2%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 36.2 161.4 35.4 20.9 242.2 1.4 9.2 6.8 7.1 5.7 30.8 Opp 41.4 202.9 32.4 19.2 247.2 2.1 4.0 11.2 8.4 9.2 29.9
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 24, 2016 Saturday 4 2016 SFL FLST home 6.0 61.0

PLAY ON low line (+/-3.5) away teams scoring >30.5 ppg vs opponent allowing at least 14 ppg (on WYO, on AFA, on CMU, on BALLST)

tA(points) > 30.5 and -4 < line < 4 and A and season > 2011 and otA(ooints) > 14
SU: 166-84-0 (4.25, 66.4%) Teaser Records ATS: 170-74-6 (4.18, 69.7%) avg line: -0.1 +6: 195-55-0 (78.0%) -6: 113-130-7 (46.5%) +10: 204-44-2 (82.3%) -10: 83-163-4 (33.7%) O/U: 122-121-7 (0.71, 50.2%) avg total: 59.3 +6: 98-149-3 (39.7%) -6: 152-96-2 (61.3%) +10: 75-172-3 (30.4%) -10: 175-72-3 (70.9%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 41.1 185.7 31.9 19.3 237.1 1.4 6.7 9.0 7.4 7.9 32.1 Opp 39.4 164.9 36.5 21.4 253.5 1.9 5.8 8.0 5.6 7.6 27.9
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 24, 2016 Saturday 4 2016 BALL FATL away -3.5 54.0 0 Sep 24, 2016 Saturday 4 2016 AIR UTST away -3.0 53.5 0 Sep 24, 2016 Saturday 4 2016 CMCH VIR away -3.5 50.5 0 Sep 23, 2016 Friday 4 2016 WYO EMCH away -3.0 63.0

UNDER winning home dog off b2b wins, both teams won at least 8 games last year (UCLA/STAN under) 4-18 o/u L22

WP > 65 and streak >= 2 and H and line > -2 and PRSW > 7 and season > 2005 and oRSW > 7 and tA(points) < 45
SU: 26-54-0 (-4.65, 32.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 38-41-1 (0.04, 48.1%) avg line: 4.7 +6: 54-26-0 (67.5%) -6: 24-56-0 (30.0%) +10: 57-22-1 (72.2%) -10: 17-62-1 (21.5%) O/U: 23-56-1 (-5.64, 29.1%) avg total: 54.2 +6: 15-64-1 (19.0%) -6: 39-40-1 (49.4%) +10: 11-69-0 (13.8%) -10: 45-35-0 (56.2%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 38.2 147.9 31.3 18.0 216.6 2.1 5.1 5.8 5.2 5.7 21.9 Opp 38.3 172.3 30.3 17.8 214.3 1.6 5.7 7.6 5.7 7.2 26.6
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 24, 2016 Saturday 4 2016 UCLA STAN home 3.0 46.5

PLAY ON small dogs with a good YTD rush defense (on USC, on UCLA, on E MICH, on UTAH ST)

2 < line < 9.5 and D and otA(o:rushing yards) < 124.8 and op:rushing yards / op:rushes > 5.42 and season > 2010
SU: 62-68-0 (-2.49, 47.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 86-39-5 (3.15, 68.8%) avg line: 5.6 +6: 102-27-1 (79.1%) -6: 57-71-2 (44.5%) +10: 105-24-1 (81.4%) -10: 36-87-7 (29.3%) O/U: 56-71-3 (-0.08, 44.1%) avg total: 55.0 +6: 43-87-0 (33.1%) -6: 79-50-1 (61.2%) +10: 31-99-0 (23.8%) -10: 89-41-0 (68.5%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 36.7 144.4 33.8 19.9 229.6 1.5 5.1 6.2 6.7 7.8 26.2 Opp 40.3 178.3 32.0 19.0 236.1 1.7 6.3 8.3 6.1 7.4 28.7
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 24, 2016 Saturday 4 2016 UCLA STAN home 3.0 46.5 0 Sep 24, 2016 Saturday 4 2016 UTST AIR home 3.0 53.5 0 Sep 23, 2016 Friday 4 2016 EMCH WYO home 3.0 63.0 0 Sep 23, 2016 Friday 4 2016 USC UTAH away 3.0 46.5

OPPOSE huge SEC non-conference favs 1st half of season when sandwiched b/w two conference games (on Kent St)

conference = SEC and not C and p:C and n:C and week < 7 and line < -30 and season > 1997
SU: 29-0-0 (35.28, 100.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 8-21-0 (-4.45, 27.6%) avg line: -39.7 +6: 12-17-0 (41.4%) -6: 6-23-0 (20.7%) +10: 16-12-1 (57.1%) -10: 5-23-1 (17.9%) O/U: 10-9-2 (-1.93, 52.6%) avg total: 56.2 +6: 5-16-0 (23.8%) -6: 13-8-0 (61.9%) +10: 3-18-0 (14.3%) -10: 14-7-0 (66.7%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 37.8 214.1 27.5 18.6 261.8 1.6 11.2 13.4 11.4 9.1 44.9 Opp 33.2 85.0 29.3 15.6 134.8 1.7 1.1 4.0 1.7 2.3 9.6
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 24, 2016 Saturday 4 2016 ALA KEST home -43.5 50.5

PLAY ON big favs in non-conference game sandwiched b/w two conference games, not SEC (on HOU, on LVILLE)

conference != SEC and not C and p:C and n:C and week < 10 and line < -23 and season > 1997
SU: 69-1-0 (35.57, 98.6%) Teaser Records ATS: 49-19-2 (4.06, 72.1%) avg line: -31.5 +6: 58-11-1 (84.1%) -6: 34-34-2 (50.0%) +10: 63-7-0 (90.0%) -10: 20-47-3 (29.9%) O/U: 23-18-1 (3.62, 56.1%) avg total: 53.0 +6: 21-21-0 (50.0%) -6: 33-8-1 (80.5%) +10: 13-28-1 (31.7%) -10: 38-4-0 (90.5%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 41.5 221.6 29.9 19.1 253.3 1.7 11.9 15.3 11.6 7.1 44.7 Opp 32.0 84.6 30.4 15.6 153.0 2.6 2.1 2.7 2.3 3.1 9.2
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 24, 2016 Saturday 4 2016 LOU MRSH away -25.5 74.5 0 Sep 24, 2016 Saturday 4 2016 HOU TXST away -34.5 65.0

conference != SEC and not C and p:C and n:C and week < 10 and line < -23 and season > 1997
SU: 69-1-0 (35.57, 98.6%) Teaser Records ATS: 49-19-2 (4.06, 72.1%) avg line: -31.5 +6: 58-11-1 (84.1%) -6: 34-34-2 (50.0%) +10: 63-7-0 (90.0%) -10: 20-47-3 (29.9%) O/U: 23-18-1 (3.62, 56.1%) avg total: 53.0 +6: 21-21-0 (50.0%) -6: 33-8-1 (80.5%) +10: 13-28-1 (31.7%) -10: 38-4-0 (90.5%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 41.5 221.6 29.9 19.1 253.3 1.7 11.9 15.3 11.6 7.1 44.7 Opp 32.0 84.6 30.4 15.6 153.0 2.6 2.1 2.7 2.3 3.1 9.2
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 24, 2016 Saturday 4 2016 LOU MRSH away -25.5 74.5 0 Sep 24, 2016 Saturday 4 2016 HOU TXST away -34.5 65.0

PLAY ON Ole Miss in 2nd of 3 straight home games (on Ole Miss)

team = MIS and p:H and H and n:H and season > 1991
SU: 15-4-0 (14.32, 78.9%) Teaser Records ATS: 18-1-0 (9.26, 94.7%) avg line: -5.1 +6: 18-1-0 (94.7%) -6: 11-8-0 (57.9%) +10: 19-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 10-8-1 (55.6%) O/U: 8-4-0 (3.88, 66.7%) avg total: 54.2 +6: 5-7-0 (41.7%) -6: 8-4-0 (66.7%) +10: 4-8-0 (33.3%) -10: 9-3-0 (75.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 42.2 234.8 30.1 19.8 275.0 1.8 9.4 9.0 9.8 8.8 32.2 Opp 33.6 118.0 33.9 19.8 211.6 1.2 2.8 4.3 6.6 7.4 17.9
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 24, 2016 Saturday 4 2016 MIS GEO home -7.0 60.0

 

[ScottL]

Appreciate your work Rolltide.

Note: PLAY ON Ole Miss in 2nd of 3 straight home games (on Ole Miss)

is actually the 3rd of 4 straight home games. Still, team seems to perform well in both 2nd AND 3rd of 3+ game homestands.

 

[Kaboom]

Great work once again bro ... any chance how u did ats last week ... appreciate it bud ...

 

[rolltide]

reworked from newletter:

PLAY ON big conference home favs (not MAC) off SU non-conference win as 2-score underdog (on TROY *******)

H and -24.5 < line < -6 and p:W and p:line > 8 and C and p:conference != po:conference and conference != MAC SU: 25-0-0 (24.00, 100.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 24-0-1 (11.38, 100.0%) avg line: -12.6 +6: 25-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 18-7-0 (72.0%) +10: 25-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 13-12-0 (52.0%) O/U: 2-4-0 (-2.25, 33.3%) avg total: 53.6 +6: 1-5-0 (16.7%) -6: 3-3-0 (50.0%) +10: 1-5-0 (16.7%) -10: 5-1-0 (83.3%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 40.7 153.0 33.5 22.5 323.3 0.7 9.7 12.3 10.5 5.0 39.9 Opp 33.0 126.5 28.0 13.7 169.2 2.8 4.3 3.3 3.3 2.8 15.9 Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 24, 2016 Saturday 4 2016 TROY NMST home -20.0 67.5

 

[indiana]

R/tide........appreciate all the info, time and effort your put into your thread each week............BOL with your action this week............indy

 

[rolltide]

thx Indy, gl this week

vs summer lines:
Clemson -10 vs -12.5
Utah -3 vs +4 (big swing)
WVU -7 vs -2.5 (and opened at BOL -1.5)
UCLA +3 vs pk
LSU -3.5 vs -7
Ole Miss -7 vs -4

 

[rolltide]

lots of decent looking plays this week but only put asterisks next to USF and Troy. Utah is an asterisked play but was opposed later by southern cal...


consult every week with a guy that continues to run the old "pops sheet" but has added a bunch to it. this week we have a ton of matching plays which is very rare. usually might have 1 or 2 the same, 1 or 2 opposite, but this week we have 6 the same and nothing opposing. they are


match GT +10, USF +5, Ball St -3, CMU -3, AFA -3, Florida +7

also posted about the Bama/Kent St game over the summer. will find that thread and repost here...

 

[rolltide]

here it is from Jiune 8 http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1043854&page=9&p=11632494#post11632494

could be a really good betting oppy on Kent State at Alabama in mid-Sept

Tide have night game in Texas vs USCw on Sept 3 followed by b2b midday games vs Western Kentucky and at Ole Miss. Both games set for 2:30 local time so will likely be some brutal heat/humidity against two teams that play no-huddle, very fast-paced offenses. Obviously win or lose there will be a letdown after the Ole Miss game and Kent State are Saban's alma mater so he won't be looking to throw a beating on them.

Kent St like to slow it up and were 125th in nation in plays/game last year. They probably won't score more than 10 points but line should be well into the 30's, perhaps even low -40's

Very similar to 3 years ago when Bama met Colorado State. It was hot as hell that day as I was there (96 and humid) and Bama sputtered and went into 4th quarter at 17-6 before scoring two 4Q TD's to win 31-6. This was a week after midday shootout in College Station where they got revenge against Johnny Football 49-42. CSU was coached by Jim McElwain who was Saban's OC so had no real interest in running up any score. Line that day was -39

Bama are 13-0 SU but just 2-11 ATS with line higher than -34 which this will be if we start well this season. Both of those covers were against 1-AA teams and we are 0-9 ATS with big lines vs other 1-A squads

 

[TheFalls]

Who keeps up with the pops sheet? and where is pops?

 

[LeftyRosenthal]

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=946812&page=650&highlight=pops69

Scroll down to post 16234

 

[shale]

RT....does Saban cover the number today against his alma mater? Leaning on taking the 6 touchdowns of course.

 

[Willie99]

thank you RT, good luck

 

[Haystacks]

RT....does Saban cover the number today against his alma mater? Leaning on taking the 6 touchdowns of course.

Scroll up a couple of posts

 

[rolltide]

RT....does Saban cover the number today against his alma mater? Leaning on taking the 6 touchdowns of course.

my thoughts in post #69

only thing that would worry me is how Kent State are physically because it is hot as hell in Ttown today....field temps will be b/w 105-120. Kent have enough defense to cover. I took some +44 but not much diff b/w +42.5/+44 really. Thinking maybe 45-9 or so.

Saban has no interest in laying 60 on his alma mater but if they get pick 6's and special teams scores it can happen. In these temps neither team will want to play fast. Bama will only cover if Kent self destruct and since they probably have the worst offense in D1 football that is a possibility.

 

[MackDonald]

Who keeps up with the pops sheet? and where is pops?

"POPS 69" posted a baseball thread here in the Rx for years...I heard he stopped for health reasons. The guys was (is?) a stat-man
with many filtering mechanism in place, right down to the "Waldo's*) (umpires) and the sweat on the players "balls", (relative humidity)

 

[Buckeyefan80]

Kent St TT at 3.5 +125. That looks too easy so they may not even score!

 

[rolltide]

ugh, backdoor TD on 4th and goal reversed and ball given to Tide at 1" line ... Be happy if Bama gets that call vs aTm or Tenn, don't really need it up 48 on Kent. the game cover decided in the booth, simple as that

tide lost 2 RB to injury, a WR, a DB...feel pretty shitty after this win...lost money, lost players, no nothing more about Hurts or Barnett. Kent is so bad our 3rd string punt returner brought one back for a TD.

 

[Biz]

Tide,

I saw that play and couldn't believe they changed it. Looked like ball was slightly on the goal line when knee hit. Ridiculous call.

 

[rolltide]

Tide,

I saw that play and couldn't believe they changed it. Looked like ball was slightly on the goal line when knee hit. Ridiculous call.

yep i got the 65" 1080p screen going and there was no way i could see when the shadow of his knee on the ground became his actual knee on the ground and call needed to be reversed since it was a TD on the field. these are 2-3 calls/year like that and hate to waste one in Bama's favor up 48 in the 4th quarter as next time it will not be overturned

exactly why i hate betting against Bama or Pitt. feel like shit and won 48-0

looks like all my hopes are on an ex-Purdue QB getting a TD and troy tonight to win by 3 TD....lovely