2016 NCAA Football Systems

[Biz]

i think you are just looking for an opening game with low total and BOTH teams lost at least their last 2 games from previous season.

Thanks Tide.

Is this a manual process looking for these games? Or is there some way to search a database? Seems a little time consuming, or maybe not. I don't know. Wondering how RD found the plays.

 

[RDTrains]

Statfox

 

[mws]

Thanks, Rolltide, and congrats to the Tide on their win over my Tigers.

 

[Biz]

Statfox

Thanks

 

[Biz]

Applies to Tulane & WF, Army & Temple, GT & BC, Kent St & PSU

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (Tulane/WAKE FOREST) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses.
(32-6 since 1992.) (84.2%, +25.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 46.2
The average score in these games was: Team 19.3, Opponent 19.3 (Total points scored = 38.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 28 (73.7% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (16-0).

Army/Temple UNDER winner.

 

[Biz]

Tide,

Trying to work the UNDER system on the sdql. I filtered Home Teams and they look like a good fade. What do you think??

H and game number = 1 and Sum(o:L@o:team,N=2) = 2 and Sum(L@team,N=2) = 2 and 42 < total < 49.5 and season >= 2010
SU: 11-6-0 (7.06, 64.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 4-12-1 (-4.85, 25.0%) avg line: -11.9 +6: 11-5-1 (68.8%) -6: 0-17-0 (0.0%) +10: 14-3-0 (82.4%) -10: 0-17-0 (0.0%) O/U: 8-9-0 (0.47, 47.1%) avg total: 46.9 +6: 4-13-0 (23.5%) -6: 10-7-0 (58.8%) +10: 4-13-0 (23.5%) -10: 12-5-0 (70.6%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 36.7 158.2 31.1 18.6 224.9 1.4 6.1 8.2 7.1 5.7 27.2 Opp 39.6 150.1 30.8 19.4 195.1 1.2 6.0 4.7 3.2 6.3 20.2
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 02, 2010 box Thursday 1 2010 KEST MUR home 17-7 7-3 10-0 7-0 41-10 -30.0 46.0 31 1.0 5.0 3.0 2.0 W W O 0 Sep 04, 2010 box Saturday 1 2010 HOU TXST home 20-7 34-0 14-7 0-14 68-28 -40.0 43.5 40 0.0 52.5 26.2 26.2 W P O 0 Sep 04, 2010 box Saturday 1 2010 LOU KTKY home 0-13 6-7 7-3 3-0 16-23 3.0 48.0 -7 -4.0 -9.0 -6.5 -2.5 L L U 0 Sep 01, 2011 box Thursday 1 2011 CMCH SCST home 7-3 7-3 7-0 0-0 21-6 -19.0 47.0 15 -4.0 -20.0 -12.0 -8.0 W L U 0 Sep 03, 2011 box Saturday 1 2011 ARZ NAZ home 14-0 0-10 20-0 7-0 41-10 -27.0 47.5 31 4.0 3.5 3.8 -0.2 W W O 0 Sep 03, 2011 box Saturday 1 2011 IWST NIWA home 0-3 7-3 0-7 13-6 20-19 -8.5 44.0 1 -7.5 -5.0 -6.2 1.2 W L U 0 Sep 03, 2011 box Saturday 1 2011 KAN MNEE home 7-0 14-3 7-13 14-8 42-24 -14.0 47.5 18 4.0 18.5 11.2 7.2 W W O 0 Sep 03, 2011 box Saturday 1 2011 NMX COST home 0-0 10-7 0-0 0-7 10-14 6.0 49.0 -4 2.0 -25.0 -11.5 -13.5 L W U 0 Sep 03, 2012 box Monday 1 2012 VTCH GTCH home 7-0 0-7 0-0 10-10 20-17 -7.0 48.0 3 -4 -11 -7.5 -3.5 W L U 1 Aug 30, 2013 box Friday 1 2013 GAST SAMF home 7-7 7-0 0-7 7-17 21-31 9.0 49.0 -10 -1.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 L L O 0 Aug 31, 2013 box Saturday 1 2013 BCOL VIL home 7-14 0-0 14-0 3-0 24-14 -15.5 47.5 10 -5.5 -9.5 -7.5 -2.0 W L U 0 Aug 31, 2013 box Saturday 1 2013 IWST NIWA home 7-7 7-14 6-0 0-7 20-28 -9.5 48.5 -8 -17.5 -0.5 -9.0 8.5 L L U 0 Sep 07, 2013 box Saturday 2 2013 KAN USD home 0-7 14-0 7-0 10-7 31-14 -26.0 44.5 17 -9.0 0.5 -4.2 4.8 W L O 0 Aug 30, 2014 box Saturday 1 2014 MAS BCOL home 0-0 0-6 7-14 0-10 7-30 17.0 47.5 -23 -6.0 -10.5 -8.2 -2.2 L L U 0 Aug 30, 2014 box Saturday 1 2014 SFL WCAR home 3-14 13-3 7-0 13-14 36-31 -26.0 48.5 5 -21.0 18.5 -1.2 19.8 W L O 0 Sep 05, 2015 box Saturday 1 2015 KAN SDKS home 7-17 7-14 14-3 10-7 38-41 1.0 49.0 -3 -2 30 14.0 16.0 L L O 0 Sep 01, 2016 box Thursday 2 2016 WAKE TLN home 0-3 7-0 0-0 0-0 7-3 -16.0 43.0 4 -12 -33 -22.5 -10.5 W L U 0 Sep 02, 2016 Friday 2 2016 TEM ARMY home -15.0 46.0 0 Sep 03, 2016 Saturday 2 2016 PNST KEST home -21.5 45.0 0

 

[rolltide]

not enough instances to get me excited but i think with any low total system it is very difficult to cover a big spread like temple -15 or state penn -22 (especially when you know the heavy trend is a game ending under the total) because the margin for error is so small. so stands to reason the away dog would be the play.... very similar to NBA when you have a 10+ fav and a total under 175....tough to hold teams <80

knock out some of those D1 vs D1AA games too. going to bed so can't do it right now but long version would be "division=1A and o:division=1AA" if "division!=o:division" doesn't work

 

[Biz]

Applies to Tulane & WF, Army & Temple, GT & BC, Kent St & PSU

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (Tulane/WAKE FOREST) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses.
(32-6 since 1992.) (84.2%, +25.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 46.2
The average score in these games was: Team 19.3, Opponent 19.3 (Total points scored = 38.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 28 (73.7% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (16-0).

3-0 on the UNDERS so far. They weren't really close either.

Kent St/Penn St UNDER 44.5 remaining game.

Great find RD.

 

[Biz]

Applies to Tulane & WF, Army & Temple, GT & BC, Kent St & PSU

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (Tulane/WAKE FOREST) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses.
(32-6 since 1992.) (84.2%, +25.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 46.2
The average score in these games was: Team 19.3, Opponent 19.3 (Total points scored = 38.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 28 (73.7% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (16-0).

3-1 and almost 4-0 if Franklin does what he is supposed to do. Run out the clock and get off the field.

 

[Kaboom]

won't really be much in week 1 other than some trends I collected through the years:



Southern Cal and Florida are the only teams to win opening game for 18 straight seasons. Nebraska, Missouri, Ohio State, and LSU are all 17-1 SU L18 years


teams with >75% ATS in game one: Temple 8-0-1 ATS in openers, Arkansas State 8-1 ATS, Alabama 8-2 ATS, Buffalo 7-2-1 ATS, Ohio State 7-2-1 ATS, Ga Southern 6-2 ATS, Ohio 6-2 ATS



1) 4+ TD underdogs are 20-8-1 ATS in first road game of season if returning 17 or more starters (on Hawaii +40.5, on Charlotte +39)


2) DD favs with new head coaches are typically terrible week one plays. This year Minnesota -13 would be team to avoid or play against



3) Teams with a new head coach that won <=4 games last year are typically awful in week 1, <35% ATS. This year Ball State, Iowa State, UL Monroe, Maryland, North Texas, South Carolina, Rutgers, UCF, UTSA, Tulane, and Virginia would be teams to avoid or play against.




4) Teams off a dreadful season failing to cover 10 or more games are 19-7-1 when facing another D1A opponent. The only game that fits this year is Charlotte +39




5) Teams favored by 10.5-21 points in week 1 who won 80%+ of their games last year and won at least 4 of final 5 games have covered >75% in first month of the season (Houston, Navy, Clemson, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Ohio State, Western Kentucky, Stanford, App State are qualifying teams this year with SDSU narrowly missing at 11-3).
Week 1 fits are playing on Alabama -11, Oklahoma -11.5 (probably should cancel with Houston in same category), WKU -16.5, Stanford -14.5




6) Oppose small away favs of 3.5-10 points that won final 3+ games last season.
no fits in 2016




7) play on 1H line in 1st 4 weeks of season with elite team from last year (80%+) that won at least final 5 games of the season when playing a home game. Only qualifying teams this year are Alabama and Western Kentucky (San Diego St narrowly misses out at 11-3).
week 1 = Western Kentucky 1H -9




8) ML first two weeks of season play on road team that won 3+ games last year to end the season, had a winning record, and playing a team that was <.500 last year.
no fit in 2016


9) Oppose week 1 non conference big home favs that won prevous h2h meeting and have a conference game on deck. 29-51 ATS, game number = 1 and not C and HF and P:W and n:C and line <= -8
week 1 - play on Maine +27, SoBama +28.5




10) Rare one but pretty simple...play on dogs <=10 in first 3 games of season if they have >=6 returning starters more than opponent.
week 1 = Wyoming +10




11) From The Playbook ... play on teams playing conference game in first 4 weeks of season that improved by 100+ yards defensively from previous season and won at least 4 games last year (only WKU week 1 qualifies).
week 1 = Western Kentucky -16.5

Anything for week 2 bro ?? .... Some of these babies hit !!!

 

[RDTrains]

Statfox has this for tonight:

PLAY AGAINST Any team (OLE MISS) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a team that had a winning record.
(28-5 since 1992.) (84.8%, +22.5 units. Rating = 4*)

 

[RDTrains]

Week 2

- Road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (UCF) - after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. (25-5 since 1992.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 3*) The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (3-27) The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 27.8 The average score in these games was: Team 20.5, Opponent 39.1 (Average point differential = -18.6) The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (58.6% of all games.) The situation's record this season is: (0-0). Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0). Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-0). Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (21-1).

 

[rolltide]

week 2 ... might have an add or two on Thursday. things will start ramping up next week or the week after. Any system i really like will have bolded asterisks next to the qualifiers

first start with a few notables:
Army is 23-44 ATS as a fav of >4 points and coming in off terrible spot of winning as a double digit SU dog. Rice +10
MAC teams off a poor game are 6-24 SUATS when facing Big 12 team. Kansas -3 (but line opened +9 so cannot touch this)
Oklahoma are 27-2 SU, 22-6-1 ATS off a loss and playing a team that didn't lose by >18 last week. Oklahoma -46

will get into system plays next

small sample size but huge home favs in week 2 are unbeaten SUATS after scoring 63+ in week one (on Mia FL, Ohio St, Michigan)

game number = 2 and points > 62 and HF and -39 < line < -19.5
SU: 12-0-0 (45.33, 100.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 12-0-0 (18.58, 100.0%) avg line: -26.8 +6: 12-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 9-3-0 (75.0%) +10: 12-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 8-3-1 (72.7%) O/U: 4-0-1 (15.30, 100.0%) avg total: 62.1 +6: 3-2-0 (60.0%) -6: 5-0-0 (100.0%) +10: 3-2-0 (60.0%) -10: 5-0-0 (100.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 43.6 290.4 27.8 20.4 323.4 1.4 17.4 17.4 10.6 15.2 58.5 Opp 35.8 98.2 33.6 19.2 224.0 1.6 4.0 6.0 3.4 3.4 13.2
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 MIAF FATL home -24.0 58.0 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 MICH CFL home -36.0 56.5 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 OHST TLS home -29.0 72.5

PLAY ON solid dogs against a good rushing defense (on So Carolina, on Texas Tech)

2 < line < 9.5 and D and otA(o:rushing yards) < 124.8 and op:rushing yards / op:rushes > 5.42 and season > 2010
SU: 62-65-0 (-1.98, 48.8%) Teaser Records ATS: 86-36-5 (3.67, 70.5%) avg line: 5.6 +6: 101-25-1 (80.2%) -6: 57-68-2 (45.6%) +10: 104-22-1 (82.5%) -10: 36-84-7 (30.0%) O/U: 55-69-3 (0.03, 44.4%) avg total: 55.1 +6: 43-84-0 (33.9%) -6: 78-48-1 (61.9%) +10: 31-96-0 (24.4%) -10: 86-41-0 (67.7%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 36.8 146.5 33.7 19.9 230.0 1.5 5.2 6.3 6.7 7.9 26.6 Opp 40.3 176.7 32.2 19.0 236.0 1.7 6.1 8.2 6.1 7.4 28.5
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 TXT AZST away 3.0 79.0 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 SCAR MSST away 6.5 44.5

PLAY ON small dog, home or away, with decent defense not in big blowout game last week (on BYU, on Arkansas, on Uconn)

-34 < p:margin < 34 and D and 3 < line < 10 and tA(o:rushing yards) < 117.25 and tA(oassing yards) < 349 and game type = RS and site != neutral
SU: 182-246-0 (-3.28, 42.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 266-149-13 (2.89, 64.1%) avg line: 6.2 +6: 317-108-3 (74.6%) -6: 179-245-4 (42.2%) +10: 339-87-2 (79.6%) -10: 132-292-4 (31.1%) O/U: 194-226-8 (-0.79, 46.2%) avg total: 50.1 +6: 130-295-3 (30.6%) -6: 261-161-6 (61.8%) +10: 102-324-2 (23.9%) -10: 310-114-4 (73.1%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 36.3 136.3 30.5 17.5 207.3 1.8 5.0 6.5 5.0 6.1 23.0 Opp 37.2 153.8 32.1 19.0 226.7 1.8 5.7 7.8 5.5 6.9 26.3
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 CON NAVY away 3.5 45.5 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 ARK TCU away 7.5 60.5 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 BYU UTAH away 3.5 46.0

UNDER after terrible defense vs opponent off dominant yards differential game (Ohio/Kansas under 59.5 *******) - one losing season of 8-4 o/u in 2014... all other years combined were 11-53-1 o/u

538 < (po:rushing yards + poassing yards) and (op:rushing yards + opassing yards) - (opo:rushing yards + opoassing yards) > 201 and total <= 62
SU: 23-54-0 (-11.52, 29.9%) Teaser Records ATS: 44-31-2 (3.47, 58.7%) avg line: 15.0 +6: 58-19-0 (75.3%) -6: 31-45-1 (40.8%) +10: 66-11-0 (85.7%) -10: 24-53-0 (31.2%) O/U: 19-57-1 (-6.94, 25.0%) avg total: 54.1 +6: 13-62-2 (17.3%) -6: 31-42-4 (42.5%) +10: 7-69-1 (9.2%) -10: 42-35-0 (54.5%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 34.0 109.5 31.5 17.4 192.5 1.8 2.8 5.9 3.7 5.3 17.8 Opp 39.6 177.2 30.5 18.8 233.1 1.9 7.2 8.2 7.9 5.7 29.4
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 OHU KAN away 3.0 59.5

OPPOSE DD dogs of <4TD that lost as a home/neutral fav last week vs opponent that won by >TD (on AFA, on Boise, on Florida, on Oregon, on Iowa, on SoFla)

p:FL and D and line > 9.5 and o:WP = 100 and season > 2010 and line < 29 and p:site != A and op:margin > 7
SU: 2-36-0 (-27.00, 5.3%) Teaser Records ATS: 9-27-2 (-7.26, 25.0%) avg line: 19.7 +6: 18-20-0 (47.4%) -6: 6-32-0 (15.8%) +10: 22-15-1 (59.5%) -10: 4-34-0 (10.5%) O/U: 18-20-0 (1.78, 47.4%) avg total: 58.0 +6: 15-23-0 (39.5%) -6: 25-11-2 (69.4%) +10: 14-24-0 (36.8%) -10: 30-8-0 (78.9%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 34.2 119.9 32.6 17.6 184.8 2.1 4.0 4.9 3.0 4.5 16.4 Opp 42.7 234.8 31.0 20.8 276.7 1.4 10.2 12.7 11.8 8.7 43.4
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 GAST AIR away 18.0 56.5 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 WAST BOIS away 12.0 69.0 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 KTKY FLA away 16.5 47.5 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 IWST IOWA away 15.0 51.0 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 VIR ORE away 24.5 70.5 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 NIL SFL away 14.5 57.0

OPPOSE team that allowed <3 yards per carry in heavy opponent rush game but still gave up 20+ points as long as they aren't coming off blowout loss (on Kansas - note line move, on Wisconsin)

po:rushes > 41 and po:rushing yards < 124 and pooints > 19 and game type = RS and p:margin > -25
SU: 52-66-0 (-2.81, 44.1%) Teaser Records ATS: 37-77-2 (-5.07, 32.5%) avg line: -1.7 +6: 53-61-2 (46.5%) -6: 26-89-1 (22.6%) +10: 70-44-2 (61.4%) -10: 21-93-2 (18.4%) O/U: 60-54-1 (-0.22, 52.6%) avg total: 53.1 +6: 43-72-0 (37.4%) -6: 71-40-4 (64.0%) +10: 32-82-1 (28.1%) -10: 82-32-1 (71.9%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 36.4 144.8 32.6 19.4 227.6 1.8 6.4 7.0 5.4 6.2 25.1 Opp 38.9 158.1 29.9 17.7 215.0 1.5 6.6 8.5 5.9 6.7 27.9
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 OHU KAN away 3.0 59.0 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 AKRON WIS away 25.0 45.0

PLAY ON home fav <45 with normal rest after huge covering win vs opponent that just allowed a lot of points in high scoring game (on Boise, on Kansas, on Miami Fl, on Nebraska, on So Fla)

HF and p:margin > 30 and 29 < opooints < 59 and opoints + opooints > 56 and p:ats margin > 3 and line > -44.5 and 5 < rest < 9
SU: 189-20-1 (24.65, 90.4%) Teaser Records ATS: 148-57-5 (6.22, 72.2%) avg line: -18.4 +6: 178-32-0 (84.8%) -6: 102-102-6 (50.0%) +10: 185-25-0 (88.1%) -10: 79-125-6 (38.7%) O/U: 44-49-3 (-1.26, 47.3%) avg total: 57.9 +6: 28-68-0 (29.2%) -6: 57-36-3 (61.3%) +10: 19-75-2 (20.2%) -10: 65-31-0 (67.7%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 40.6 216.2 29.5 19.2 260.7 1.4 9.6 12.2 10.0 8.1 40.0 Opp 36.4 122.1 32.2 17.3 188.1 1.9 3.3 5.0 3.0 4.8 15.3
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 BOIS WAST home -12.0 69.0 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 KAN OHU home -3.0 59.0 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 MIAF FATL home -24.0 58.0 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 NEB WYO home -24.5 58.0 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 SFL NIL home -14.5 57.0

OPPOSE favorites that needed OT to win as a big favorite last week (on Va Tech +11.5 *******)

pvertime > 0 and p:FW and -8.5 > p:line > -28 and F and line < -4 and rest < 14 SU: 47-19-0 (8.94, 71.2%) Teaser Records ATS: 18-46-2 (-5.11, 28.1%) avg line: -14.0 +6: 37-28-1 (56.9%) -6: 11-55-0 (16.7%) +10: 48-18-0 (72.7%) -10: 4-61-1 (6.2%) O/U: 14-12-2 (-2.91, 53.8%) avg total: 54.8 +6: 9-19-0 (32.1%) -6: 19-9-0 (67.9%) +10: 7-21-0 (25.0%) -10: 19-9-0 (67.9%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 40.9 190.0 30.8 20.0 239.7 1.7 7.4 9.1 8.1 7.2 31.2 Opp 33.6 122.0 32.8 18.5 201.5 1.7 5.2 5.4 4.2 5.1 22.2 Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 TEN VTCH neutral -11.5 52.0

OPPOSE road small fav or dog with extra rest but short week up next (on Purdue +6.5 *******)

A and -11.5 < line < 3 and rest > 7 and n:rest < 6 SU: 16-22-0 (-4.45, 42.1%) Teaser Records ATS: 4-33-1 (-9.14, 10.8%) avg line: -4.7 +6: 19-18-1 (51.4%) -6: 3-35-0 (7.9%) +10: 24-14-0 (63.2%) -10: 2-36-0 (5.3%) O/U: 12-15-0 (1.89, 44.4%) avg total: 52.6 +6: 10-17-0 (37.0%) -6: 16-11-0 (59.3%) +10: 8-19-0 (29.6%) -10: 18-9-0 (66.7%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 38.7 165.1 31.4 18.2 207.6 2.2 5.4 7.0 4.9 6.8 25.3 Opp 35.8 142.3 33.6 19.8 219.4 1.4 7.5 7.1 6.3 7.9 29.7 Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 CIN PUR away -6.5 63.0

a few more to come....

 

[rolltide]

From the Playbook ... new HC are 0-37 SU, 9-28 ATS as a double digit dog in Week Two if they were a dog in Week One and facing opponent off a win. (play on Indiana -17.5)

week two system: oppose home favs of < 2 TD that beat this opponent in first half of last season (on New Mexico St, on Uconn *******)

game number = 2 and line > -13 and P:W and p:W and F and P:week < 6 and P:season = season -1 and opoints < 54 and season > 2001 SU: 30-25-0 (2.02, 54.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 16-39-0 (-4.68, 29.1%) avg line: -6.7 +6: 27-28-0 (49.1%) -6: 11-44-0 (20.0%) +10: 37-17-1 (68.5%) -10: 9-46-0 (16.4%) O/U: 19-19-0 (1.36, 50.0%) avg total: 51.9 +6: 16-22-0 (42.1%) -6: 24-13-1 (64.9%) +10: 11-26-1 (29.7%) -10: 26-12-0 (68.4%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 37.9 187.6 31.4 18.6 212.8 1.8 6.1 8.3 6.0 7.5 26.7 Opp 36.3 135.4 34.7 20.3 230.2 1.9 4.8 6.3 4.4 7.9 24.7 Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 NAVY CON home -3.5 45.5 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 NMX NMST away -11.5 64.5

Week Two - PLAY ON dogs looking to avenge early home loss from previous meeting (on UTSA +10.5 *******) - note 24-7-1 if revenge is from last season

line < 13 and D and P:HL and P:game number <= 5 and P:wins <= o:wins and game number = 2 and season > 1994 SU: 29-27-0 (-0.39, 51.8%) Teaser Records ATS: 40-15-1 (5.99, 72.7%) avg line: 6.4 +6: 48-8-0 (85.7%) -6: 31-25-0 (55.4%) +10: 49-7-0 (87.5%) -10: 22-33-1 (40.0%) O/U: 12-10-0 (1.77, 54.5%) avg total: 52.0 +6: 10-12-0 (45.5%) -6: 16-5-1 (76.2%) +10: 6-15-1 (28.6%) -10: 17-4-1 (81.0%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 40.1 147.6 29.1 17.6 220.7 1.9 5.0 8.7 5.8 5.9 24.6 Opp 34.6 149.0 31.2 19.3 218.5 1.7 4.8 9.5 3.9 9.2 24.9 Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 UTSA COST away 10.5

Week 2 & 3 PLAY on solid dog of 5-9.5 in non-conference game with both teams off home win (on Penn State, on Purdue, on Arkansas *******)

D and 4.5 < line < 10 and week < 4 and p:HW and op:HFW and not C and op:margin > 3
SU: 21-38-0 (-4.64, 35.6%) Teaser Records ATS: 42-16-1 (2.63, 72.4%) avg line: 7.3 +6: 45-14-0 (76.3%) -6: 24-35-0 (40.7%) +10: 47-12-0 (79.7%) -10: 14-44-1 (24.1%) O/U: 23-17-1 (3.79, 57.5%) avg total: 53.3 +6: 19-21-1 (47.5%) -6: 32-9-0 (78.0%) +10: 16-24-1 (40.0%) -10: 34-7-0 (82.9%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 37.6 152.3 36.3 21.3 235.5 1.8 6.4 7.0 4.8 6.9 24.3 Opp 37.7 153.8 34.2 20.7 258.2 1.9 6.7 8.8 6.8 7.2 28.9
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 PNST PIT away 6.0 49.0 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 PUR CIN home 6.5 63.0 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 ARK TCU away 7.5 60.5

 

[rolltide]

OPPOSE unrested home favs of < 4 Td off an OT loss (on Nevada if 28.5 or less, on UNLV +26, on ODU +20.5)

HF and pvertime > 0 and p:L and line > -29 and rest < 13
SU: 72-42-0 (6.54, 63.2%) Teaser Records ATS: 41-70-3 (-3.52, 36.9%) avg line: -10.1 +6: 61-51-2 (54.5%) -6: 26-87-1 (23.0%) +10: 77-36-1 (68.1%) -10: 22-92-0 (19.3%) O/U: 33-24-1 (3.62, 57.9%) avg total: 52.6 +6: 25-33-0 (43.1%) -6: 40-18-0 (69.0%) +10: 21-37-0 (36.2%) -10: 43-15-0 (74.1%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 42.1 192.1 31.1 18.9 226.3 1.9 7.0 8.2 7.3 7.7 30.8 Opp 35.7 133.1 33.1 18.2 222.7 1.7 6.2 6.5 6.4 6.5 24.2
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 APP OLDD home -20.5 57.5 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 NOTD NEV home -28.0 60.5 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 UCLA UNLV home -26.5 62.5

 

[rolltide]

Week 2

- Road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (UCF) - after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. (25-5 since 1992.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 3*) The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (3-27) The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 27.8 The average score in these games was: Team 20.5, Opponent 39.1 (Average point differential = -18.6) The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (58.6% of all games.) The situation's record this season is: (0-0). Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0). Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-0). Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (21-1).

i can't run returning starters but this really looks nice even without that designation and moving it down to 200 yards more than opponent...16-1 ATS L17

PLAY ON huge dog that outgained opponent by more than 200 yards last week (on WKU, on Troy, on UCF, on EMICH, on TULSA, on CMICH, on UNLV *******)

(p:rushing yards + passing yards) - (po:rushing yards + poassing yards) > 199 and D and line > 20 SU: 8-58-0 (-18.38, 12.1%) Teaser Records ATS: 52-14-0 (8.54, 78.8%) avg line: 26.9 +6: 57-8-1 (87.7%) -6: 39-26-1 (60.0%) +10: 60-6-0 (90.9%) -10: 32-34-0 (48.5%) O/U: 27-36-3 (0.35, 42.9%) avg total: 58.0 +6: 20-46-0 (30.3%) -6: 37-26-3 (58.7%) +10: 14-52-0 (21.2%) -10: 47-17-2 (73.4%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 35.6 123.3 34.5 19.9 211.0 1.7 4.0 6.0 4.0 5.5 20.0 Opp 39.4 203.3 31.5 20.5 259.5 1.8 8.9 11.3 8.7 9.0 38.4 Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 WKY ALA away 28.5 58.0 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 TROY CLEM away 36.0 63.0 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 CFL MICH away 36.0 56.5 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 EMCH MIZ away 25.5 53.0 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 TLS OHST away 29.0 72.5 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 CMCH OKST away 20.5 61.5 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 UNLV UCLA away 26.5 62.5

 

[Kaboom]

Solid info bro ...thank you !! Appreciate the efforts !

 

[RDTrains]

Just realized this applies to E. Mich as well ... (see post #32)

- Road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (E MICHIGAN) - after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. (25-5 since 1992.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 3*)

 

[Kaboom]

Just realized this applies to E. Mich as well ... (see post #32)

- Road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (E MICHIGAN) - after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. (25-5 since 1992.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 3*)

Thanks again Train !!

 

[rolltide]

PLAY ON teams off a losing effort despite holding opponent <30 points, <13 first downs, and <172 rushing yards (on BC -16.5, on Tulane TBD)

p:L and 13 > po:first downs > 0 and pooints < 30 and po:rushing yards < 172 and p:margin < -1 and day = Saturday and date < 20160916 SU: 49-39-0 (2.59, 55.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 63-23-1 (5.64, 73.3%) avg line: 3.5 +6: 74-13-0 (85.1%) -6: 43-41-3 (51.2%) +10: 77-10-0 (88.5%) -10: 32-55-0 (36.8%) O/U: 39-45-2 (-0.01, 46.4%) avg total: 48.3 +6: 26-59-1 (30.6%) -6: 57-29-0 (66.3%) +10: 18-66-2 (21.4%) -10: 62-22-2 (73.8%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 39.5 160.5 29.0 16.3 191.1 1.6 4.8 8.1 6.9 5.2 25.6 Opp 36.1 141.9 30.5 17.3 207.2 2.1 5.0 6.7 4.8 5.8 23.0 Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 BCOL MAS away -17.0 39.5 0 Sep 10, 2016 Saturday 3 2016 TLN SOU home