Good info Eleven, keep it coming! This looks like a very tough derby to pick the winner.
#%() I saw this the other day.......always liked the RAN angle............
..................Raise A Native has been a red hot Derby winning sire line...
2014 American Pharoah
2012 I’ll Have Another
2010 Super Saver
2009 Mine That Bird
2007 Street Sense
2004 Smarty Jones
2003 Funny Cide
2002 War Emblem
2001 Monarchos
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus
1998 Real Quiet
1996 Grindstone
1995 Thunder Gulch
1991 Strike the Gold
1990 Unbridled
1987 Alysheba
1980 Genuine Risk
1978 Affirmed
1969 Majestic Prince
This year's contenders with a current spot in the gate are:
Exaggerator
Danzing Candy
Gun Runner
Trojan Nation
.......be well all
..................Raise A Native has been a red hot Derby winning sire line...
2014 American Pharoah
2012 I’ll Have Another
2010 Super Saver
2009 Mine That Bird
2007 Street Sense
2004 Smarty Jones
2003 Funny Cide
2002 War Emblem
2001 Monarchos
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus
1998 Real Quiet
1996 Grindstone
1995 Thunder Gulch
1991 Strike the Gold
1990 Unbridled
1987 Alysheba
1980 Genuine Risk
1978 Affirmed
1969 Majestic Prince
This year's contenders with a current spot in the gate are:
Exaggerator
Danzing Candy
Gun Runner
Trojan Nation
.......be well all
And here is a link ( most of you probably know already )..for the Derby Workouts.........
http://www.drf.com/kentucky-derby-workouts
http://www.drf.com/kentucky-derby-workouts
Eleven, who looks good to you working out this year? Nyquist is getting a lot of hype for good reason, but seems to being treated softly going into the derby.
Man, I don't think I will have my picks until Friday or Saturday, & usually I know who I like after all the final preps have been run.
A very fast pace by Danzig Candy & Nyquist & several other stalkers could get burnt up, which favors the closers.
But if DC runs a moderate pace up front, it favors the stalkers. Tough, tough, tough!!!
Man, I don't think I will have my picks until Friday or Saturday, & usually I know who I like after all the final preps have been run.
A very fast pace by Danzig Candy & Nyquist & several other stalkers could get burnt up, which favors the closers.
But if DC runs a moderate pace up front, it favors the stalkers. Tough, tough, tough!!!
This year's contenders with a current spot in the gate are:
Exaggerator
Danzing Candy
Gun Runner
Trojan Nation
If Trojan Nation wins as a maiden, I wouldn't be shocked. Exaggerator needs a sloppy track which he won't get.
Danzig Candy won't wire the field in a 20 horse race, he doesn't have War Emblem potential.
Gun Runner is a sneaky horse.
The thing with Nyquist is he's won every race he ran, 4 G1's & 2 G2's, the only think remaining is the derby, but I have a sneaky feeling someone beats him, but that's why they run them!
Exaggerator
Danzing Candy
Gun Runner
Trojan Nation
If Trojan Nation wins as a maiden, I wouldn't be shocked. Exaggerator needs a sloppy track which he won't get.
Danzig Candy won't wire the field in a 20 horse race, he doesn't have War Emblem potential.
Gun Runner is a sneaky horse.
The thing with Nyquist is he's won every race he ran, 4 G1's & 2 G2's, the only think remaining is the derby, but I have a sneaky feeling someone beats him, but that's why they run them!
TCG,
I like how Creator/Gun Runner have been working up to the derby..........................and Shagaf has also been working well.....................but most of all, I'm very intrigued with SBNews and his new piece of equipment , the 'shadow roll'. He had a great drill with this.......................but I've never been a fan of a horse needing an extra something right before a big race.........................like adding blinkers etc...................but this shadow roll , I don't know.
This is a tough one....................think the pace will be fast early, but slow down about 3/4 in..........don't see anything faster than a 2.02 time though.
Also , starting to get a bit intrigued by Lani, the winner of the Dubai race. Normally I would always throw out any Dubai winner .............normally a no show in Kentucky. But as I look more at him, and see some of his races ( he's bred to run all day and then some ......with Slew, Secretariat, Sunday Silence lines ) ...hmmmmmmm.
And he is not a Dubai horse....................he's actually a Japan horse, which made a pit stop in Dubai........................can he shock all of us ?
And he is not a Dubai horse....................he's actually a Japan horse, which made a pit stop in Dubai........................can he shock all of us ?
Wouldn't surprise me one bit if Lani won. All trends are being broken, & we haven't had a foreign horse win since early 1970's.
Nyquist is the horse to beat, he's won 4 G1 races at each win at 4 different tracks, that's a huge accomplishment.
But Nyquist's beyers & times arent something that matches those accomplishments.
It feels like the other horses are really bad this year or he's just doing enough to win, & taking his good ole time doing it.
Nyquist's times IMO aren't that good.
Here is an article from DRF that gives lots of info concerning beyer speed figures compared to past derby years.
http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2016-inside-numbers
http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2016-inside-numbers
:think2:...........................................Now the positions have been drawn........some final comments......
1-Trojan Nation ....................the dreaded 1 hole, and a maiden to boot.............toss him
2- SBNews...........................this post should not bother him at all..........likes to sit at the back anyway...........really like his chances to hit the board
3- Creator..................just seems to be getting better at the right time..................have to include him
4- Mo Tom....................will he stay out of trouble...............a live longshot
5- Gun Runner..................out of LA derby...........board hitter
6- My Man Sam.................another nice closer..................how many are in this race ?
7- Oscar Nominated............still thinking on him
8- Lani...............the horse from Japan.............if he doesn’t zone out , like him to hit the board
9- Destin............another top longshot which I like
10- Whitmore..................same as above
11- Exaggerator..............will he get another great trip, will be one of my win candidates
12- Tom’s Ready..............Dallas Stewart, enough said
13- Nyquist...............all he does is win...........so have to consider him a win candidate
14- Mohaymen.............my top play.........think he is ready to explode
15- Outwork.............will he be the pacesetter , or D Candy
16-Shagaf................seems to be going in the wrong direction at the wrong time
17- Mor Spirit............never less than 1 or 2................will hit the board
18- Majesto................don’t like him
19- Brody’s Cause...........think this post will not hurt him much
20- Danzig Candy.............a toss for me, this post will overextend him with his running style
Good luck to all...........................back later with my final plays....................be well all.............
1-Trojan Nation ....................the dreaded 1 hole, and a maiden to boot.............toss him
2- SBNews...........................this post should not bother him at all..........likes to sit at the back anyway...........really like his chances to hit the board
3- Creator..................just seems to be getting better at the right time..................have to include him
4- Mo Tom....................will he stay out of trouble...............a live longshot
5- Gun Runner..................out of LA derby...........board hitter
6- My Man Sam.................another nice closer..................how many are in this race ?
7- Oscar Nominated............still thinking on him
8- Lani...............the horse from Japan.............if he doesn’t zone out , like him to hit the board
9- Destin............another top longshot which I like
10- Whitmore..................same as above
11- Exaggerator..............will he get another great trip, will be one of my win candidates
12- Tom’s Ready..............Dallas Stewart, enough said
13- Nyquist...............all he does is win...........so have to consider him a win candidate
14- Mohaymen.............my top play.........think he is ready to explode
15- Outwork.............will he be the pacesetter , or D Candy
16-Shagaf................seems to be going in the wrong direction at the wrong time
17- Mor Spirit............never less than 1 or 2................will hit the board
18- Majesto................don’t like him
19- Brody’s Cause...........think this post will not hurt him much
20- Danzig Candy.............a toss for me, this post will overextend him with his running style
Good luck to all...........................back later with my final plays....................be well all.............
Free Kentucky Derby 142 past performances in either Brisnet or DRF format at this site ..
https://downthestretchs.com/
Will need to scroll down and click on your choice.
Below that is Each Individual Race pps on Saturday May 7th Churchill Card... Clicking on one of those races takes you to the Trks2day pps page ... Will need to find the date )Saturday May 7th and the Churchill, then the race, click on Ultimate pps... a little work by you to download, but they are FREE.
https://downthestretchs.com/
Will need to scroll down and click on your choice.
Below that is Each Individual Race pps on Saturday May 7th Churchill Card... Clicking on one of those races takes you to the Trks2day pps page ... Will need to find the date )Saturday May 7th and the Churchill, then the race, click on Ultimate pps... a little work by you to download, but they are FREE.
With a bunch of, what seems to be, geriatric ponies running in this years Kentucky Derby, expect "the fastest two minutes in sports" to allow you some more time to down another Julep. With that being said, slow speed early will dispel most "closer's" chances...but not all "closers" for the burnt ends of those hot tickets. This fact will bode well for versatility of favorite Nyquist. But first...
Let us begin with the toss-outs. Trojan Nation, we know what is inside your horse, nothing, enjoy the rail, you're secret is safe with me. Mo Tom...more of my hard-earned money in my pocket, no thanks. Gun Runner-Curse of the Louisiana Derby-nope. My Man Sam-he's not. Oscar Nominated-what's real dirt? Lani-I'm from Japan so people are gonna be like "Shit, Japanese can really train horses!" Too much of an unknown, wild one. Tom's Ready for nothing. Mohaymen-distance issue. Outwork will be slow and outworked. Shagaf-What? Mor Spirit-can't win from 17. Majesto-finally a beautiful "maiden" wanted you. Danzing Candy-he is the rabbit of the lot. Brody's Cause-he will run out of distance to close and needs his best effort.
Top 2 Horses I believe can win the race are Nyquist and Exaggerator. I am going to be using them in both Trifecta and Superfecta Keys. That's basically it. The rest of my cash will be dinner/drinks, blackjack, and craps.
As I said before, Nyquist has the versatility to win this race. He can set pace, come form middle, etc. a real tactician. If the track was a slop-fest, I'd have no problem taking Exaggerator to win it all without a doubt. He won't get that it seems, but as of now I think he is the only horse that can beat Nyquist.
Rounding out the tickets will be Whitemore , like the jockey and the post; Destin, he is well rested; Pletcher has a plan; Creator-can move late.
Overall, it is hard to know if I know what I am talking about. But, I will Key Nyquist over Exaggerator, Whitmore, Destin, and Creator and maybe add two more for fun. Then, I will do the same with Exaggerator as the key.
Who the hell knows how this thing will play out, honestly.
Good luck to all!
Let us begin with the toss-outs. Trojan Nation, we know what is inside your horse, nothing, enjoy the rail, you're secret is safe with me. Mo Tom...more of my hard-earned money in my pocket, no thanks. Gun Runner-Curse of the Louisiana Derby-nope. My Man Sam-he's not. Oscar Nominated-what's real dirt? Lani-I'm from Japan so people are gonna be like "Shit, Japanese can really train horses!" Too much of an unknown, wild one. Tom's Ready for nothing. Mohaymen-distance issue. Outwork will be slow and outworked. Shagaf-What? Mor Spirit-can't win from 17. Majesto-finally a beautiful "maiden" wanted you. Danzing Candy-he is the rabbit of the lot. Brody's Cause-he will run out of distance to close and needs his best effort.
Top 2 Horses I believe can win the race are Nyquist and Exaggerator. I am going to be using them in both Trifecta and Superfecta Keys. That's basically it. The rest of my cash will be dinner/drinks, blackjack, and craps.
As I said before, Nyquist has the versatility to win this race. He can set pace, come form middle, etc. a real tactician. If the track was a slop-fest, I'd have no problem taking Exaggerator to win it all without a doubt. He won't get that it seems, but as of now I think he is the only horse that can beat Nyquist.
Rounding out the tickets will be Whitemore , like the jockey and the post; Destin, he is well rested; Pletcher has a plan; Creator-can move late.
Overall, it is hard to know if I know what I am talking about. But, I will Key Nyquist over Exaggerator, Whitmore, Destin, and Creator and maybe add two more for fun. Then, I will do the same with Exaggerator as the key.
Who the hell knows how this thing will play out, honestly.
Good luck to all!
