Thinking...
BY THE WAY: I personally think there isn't one of us that knows much if anything about this derby. That theory is further supported by all the "experts" who have posted plays and analysis.
Simply do a google search for "Kentucky Derby Picks" and you will see tons and tons of analysis. But, the funny thing is, is that each of them considers their horse(s) to win as they predict. One thing holds true, there is no consistency over who will win or what or which way to bet. This is essentially a crap shoot, and I think we can all agree on that.
Someone out there; however, will get lucky and hit something. But right now, this race is on analysis overload.
BY THE WAY: I personally think there isn't one of us that knows much if anything about this derby. That theory is further supported by all the "experts" who have posted plays and analysis.
Simply do a google search for "Kentucky Derby Picks" and you will see tons and tons of analysis. But, the funny thing is, is that each of them considers their horse(s) to win as they predict. One thing holds true, there is no consistency over who will win or what or which way to bet. This is essentially a crap shoot, and I think we can all agree on that.
Someone out there; however, will get lucky and hit something. But right now, this race is on analysis overload.
Guaro- i agree if you look at trends and stats and speed figs and start tossing horses just based on that, he is one of a few who on paper who can win this race, he draws the outside and is gonna go for the lead anyways, he wont get a bad trip in that melee inside of him, if he can slow this fu-cker down enough he could go wire to wire and steal this race.
can he get the distance? for people who look at that angle?
this is such an interesting race unlike anything ive seen for a derby in a while.
can he get the distance? for people who look at that angle?
this is such an interesting race unlike anything ive seen for a derby in a while.
face)(*^% OK, time to lay the cards on the table and let them speak ..............
First, I think that this race is going to set up very nicely for the presser/off the pace horses. As much as I would love to see a fast pace, with ‘lightning’ fractions...............not going to happen with D Candy in the 20 hole. Think he may even sit back going around the first turn. So with slower fractions, I look for this to help those presser types and hurt the deep closers. Can another favorite pull this out, will be 4 in a row then....
With that being said, here are my selections for this monster..........
Top Win Contenders -
----- 14 Moyhamen
----- 17 Mor Spirit
----- 13 Nyquist
Top Board Hitters -
----- 5 Gun Runner
----- 11 Exaggerator
----- 10 Whitmore
----- 3 Creator
Top Longshots
----- 4 Mo Tom
----- 2 Suddenbreakingnews
But then again what do I know, this is a strange race and if Nyquist doesn’t hit the board there will be some bomb payouts..................guess anything can happen, even Lani crossing the line first.
So we will take these selected horses and box them and key them in the exotics, with few bomb win tickets .
Best of luck with whatever you do.........................hopefully some of us can cash some tickets come tomorrow.
Be well all................................
First, I think that this race is going to set up very nicely for the presser/off the pace horses. As much as I would love to see a fast pace, with ‘lightning’ fractions...............not going to happen with D Candy in the 20 hole. Think he may even sit back going around the first turn. So with slower fractions, I look for this to help those presser types and hurt the deep closers. Can another favorite pull this out, will be 4 in a row then....
With that being said, here are my selections for this monster..........
Top Win Contenders -
----- 14 Moyhamen
----- 17 Mor Spirit
----- 13 Nyquist
Top Board Hitters -
----- 5 Gun Runner
----- 11 Exaggerator
----- 10 Whitmore
----- 3 Creator
Top Longshots
----- 4 Mo Tom
----- 2 Suddenbreakingnews
But then again what do I know, this is a strange race and if Nyquist doesn’t hit the board there will be some bomb payouts..................guess anything can happen, even Lani crossing the line first.
So we will take these selected horses and box them and key them in the exotics, with few bomb win tickets .
Best of luck with whatever you do.........................hopefully some of us can cash some tickets come tomorrow.
Be well all................................
I like many of the same horses you like. Just trying to figure out how to play them. If the race goes as you expect, I really like Gun Runner. Think he has a great post position at #5 with most of the deep closers around him. He should get a clear path out of gate and get good position right behind the pace horses. I like Mohaymen a lot also. Think he runs a big race. Good luck with your plays.
wabash,
You are right on with the # 5 Gun Runner.................could have not got a better post..............I see him on the rail saving ground around the first turn..............the 4 horses to the left present no challenge.
And I hope we are both right with Moyhamen...............think he sits off the pace around 5th or 6th perfectly, it is just a matter if he runs when asked...............
Best of luck with your plays also................be well.................
Good stuff guys, good luck!
Exacta a box: Creator, Gun Runner, Nyquist, Whitmore, SuddenBreakingNews......a 5 horse box, & same 5 for a triple.
Exacta a box: Creator, Gun Runner, Nyquist, Whitmore, SuddenBreakingNews......a 5 horse box, & same 5 for a triple.
hno: We did well with this years derby........................out of my top 7 selections we swept the board......hitting the exacta, tri and super..................not too shabby.............But as we all know, the payouts were shabby .................If you were disappointed with the payoffs, join the club…not your typical 20-horse Derby payoffs by any means and none this low in over 30 years.
..........................................Congrats to Nyquist......think he will take the next leg easily.
Some notes to take away from this derby and to watch for next year.............
-----X-Factor horse wins again
-----Throw out horses coming out of the Dubai race...........
-----Throw out horses coming out of the Wood
And how about the fastest times for the 9F race coming thru again, last year the top 3 on this list filled out the trifecta, and this year the top 2 filled out the exacta....
......Nyquist...............................................1.49
......Exaggerator.........................................1.49.3
.................................Another coincidence, or a small trend starting, just take the fastest horse at the 9F distance ???
Hope we will able to help some of you, and Thanks again for all of your contributions to this thread........................see you soon for the Preakness.
Be well all....................................
But as we all know, the payouts were shabby .................If you were disappointed with the payoffs, join the club…not your typical 20-horse Derby payoffs by any means and none this low in over 30 years.
..........................................Congrats to Nyquist......think he will take the next leg easily.
Some notes to take away from this derby and to watch for next year.............
-----X-Factor horse wins again
-----Throw out horses coming out of the Dubai race...........
-----Throw out horses coming out of the Wood
And how about the fastest times for the 9F race coming thru again, last year the top 3 on this list filled out the trifecta, and this year the top 2 filled out the exacta....
......Nyquist...............................................1.49
......Exaggerator.........................................1.49.3
.................................Another coincidence, or a small trend starting, just take the fastest horse at the 9F distance ???
Hope we will able to help some of you, and Thanks again for all of your contributions to this thread........................see you soon for the Preakness.
Be well all....................................
care to divulge how you bet your top 7 selections (35% of the field btw) and hit the exacta, tri , and super? Obviously boxing anything would have lost you a ton of money ($840 boxing your 7 to win $540 on the super)..exacta paid $15...tri something like $85..sooooooo did you hit these, sweep the board and lose money? Just wondering. I've followed your bets for years and I know your style (if you even actually bet)...pretty sure you "swept the board" and of course lost 50% of your stake or more.
now onto the preakness where you will select half the field..hit everything and lose another 50%...wash rinse repeat in the Belmont and we have another 11black triple crown season in the books
Dude, why don't you take your crap and post it in your own thread. I'm still looking for your selections posted somewhere but can't find anything other than you liked Whitmore and SBN so I guess you lost your ass too. You come in in this thread every year and spew your shit. If you don't like the info 11black posts then don't come into the thread. Most of us appreciate the work he does to give us info that helps us handicap the race. Who gives a fuck who he actually bet or how(other than you I guess, typical troll if you ask me).
